Nuclear Weapons

Commerce and War

Trade and War • In addition to democracy, y, commerce may also promote peace. • Richard Ri h d Cobden, C bd 1859 1859: “Th “The people l of the two nations [France and England] must be brought into mutual dependence by the supply of each other's wants. There is no other th way off counteracting t ti the th antagonism of language and race.”

Trade and War • States can g gain resources and markets through g conquest or trade. • If trade is free and open, states can satisfy their resource needs without war war. • Commerce and interdependence increase the costs of war because of foregone economic b benefits. fit • Trade and democracy: cutting off trade hurts the peop e people. • Realist critique: interdependence creates vulnerability.

Evidence • Global trade was very high before WWI. • Trade was very low before WWII. • Statistical work shows some effect.

Copeland • Copeland and “trade trade expectations. expectations ” – Not the current level of trade, but expectations of future trade or of cutting off trade trade.

N l Nuclear W Weapons

Nuclear Technology • Nuclear weapons work through fission or fusion of radioactive materials (Uranium or ) Plutonium). • Fission weapons (splitting atoms) were the yp developed. p first type – Atomic Bomb

• Fusion weapons p ((combining g atoms)) are much more advanced and powerful. – Hydrogen bomb

Nuclear Technology • Fission p produces a charge g equivalent to 500,000 TONS of TNT. • Fusion F i produces d a charge h equivalent to 50,000,000 TONS of TNT. TNT • Radiation effects last decades. ec o og ca obstac obstacles: es • Technological – high-grade radioactive materials do not occur naturally. – Delivery D li systems t mustt nott damage explosive material

Weapons p Delivery y Systems y • Earliest weapons were simply gravity bombs dropped from airplanes airplanes. • Ballistic missiles reduce risk of interception. Inter-continental continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). • Inter – “Hardened” missile silos. – Mobile missile launchers. • Submarine-launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM). p independent p re-entryy vehicle ((MIRV). ) • Multiple

History of Nuclear Weaponry • 1934: Italian physicist Enrico Fermi learns how to produce nuclear fission. – Race to develop weaponized nuclear reactions.

• 1942: US ‘Manhattan Project’ led by Robert Oppenheimer develops fission weapons. • 1945: ‘Little Boy’ and ‘Fat Man’ dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. WWII ends. – Over 100,000 dead.

• 1949: USSR tests its first nuclear weapon.

• 1952: US develops first fusion bomb (H-Bomb). – 450 times more powerful than Nagasaki bomb.

• • • •

1952: UK develops its own nuclear weapon. 1960: France develops nuclear weapon. 1964: China develops nuclear weapon. 1968 US 1968: US, USSR USSR, Chi China, F France, UK sign i nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT). – 189 countries now party to the treaty treaty.

• Yet, others have developed nuclear weapons: – Israel, Pakistan, India, North Korea, ((South Africa). )

• Iran may be pursuing nuclear weapons capabilities, but claims program is peaceful.

Cold War Arms Race • During Cold War, US and USSR were developing more and ‘better’ weapons. • Had enough weapons to d t destroy th E the Earth, th severall times over. • Yet, Yet arms race became extremely costly. • S.A.L.T. S A L T Talks. Talks

Arms Limitation • US-Russia Agreements: g – SALT I & II with USSR/Russia. – Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (1991) – Anti-Ballistic A ti B lli ti Mi Missile il T Treaty t (1972 (1972-2002) 2002) • Agreements on testing – Partial Test-Ban Test Ban Treaty (1963) – Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (1996) • Proliferation agreements – Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (1968) • Monitoring Agency – International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Mutually y Assured Destruction • MAD doctrine asserts that nuclear war would be rationally impossible since both countries would be destroyed. destroyed • Perhaps nuclear weapons preserved peace during Cold War? • MAD depends on: – second-strike capability – Inability to defend against nuclear attack – Protection against ‘accidental’ launch – ‘Rational’ enemyy

MAD M.A.D. • Hardened ICBM silos and SLBMs reduced chance that weapons would be destroyed in a first strike. • Anti-ballistic missile systems. – Defensive? Yet Yet, undermines MAD MAD. • 1972: ABM treaty restricts development of antiballistic missile technology. • 2002: 2002 US withdraws ithd ffrom ttreaty, t claiming l i i th threatt ffrom ‘rogue’ nations. Current issues with Russia. • However, ABM technology still not very effective. – MIRVs and decoys difficult to deal with. – Fears of a new arms race (Death Star?)

Threat of Proliferation: Former USSR • Former Soviet republics had nukes upon independence. independence – Concern about weakness in the states. – Republics R bli agree tto give i up nuclear weapons, return them to Russia. • Alexander Lebed, former secretary of Russian Security Council, claimed in 1997 interview that about 100 weapons are unaccounted for. – Controlled radioactive substances also ‘missing missing.’

Proliferation: Pakistan and India • Pakistan and India did not sign g the NPT. • Countries have a dispute over status off Kashmir. K h i • In 1998, both countries test nuclear weapons weapons. – Short-lived international sanctions.

• Concerns about Pakistan’s Pakistan s political stability. • Abdul Qadeer Khan and blackmarket activities.

Proliferation: N N. Korea • N. Korea signed g NPT in 1985. Had a civilian nuclear energy program. • Detection of weapons programs in 1992. 1992 • After talks, N. Korea agrees to suspend program in exchange for ‘ f ’ reactors ‘safe’ t (1994) (1994). • However, in 2003 N. Korea withdraws t d a s from o NPT a and d tests a nuke in 2006. • Current efforts to restrain N. Korea. – Rewarding R di b bad db behavior? h i ?

Proliferation: Iran • Signed the NPT in 1968. • Iran creates nuclear energy plants in early 1990s. • Kept existence of plants secret until 2002. • US, others, concerned about development of nuclear weapons capabilities. • Iran insists that program is for energy only. • UN called on Iran to suspend uranium enrichment until program could be verified. – Sanctions imposed in December December, current efforts to stiffen sanctions.

Conflict With Iran • FRANCE: “No No nuclear weapons for Iran Iran, and an arsenal of sanctions to convince them Negotiations, them. Negotiations discussions, discussions firmness.” • USA: “The The pursuit by the Iranian regime of nuclear weapons represents a direct threat to the entire international community community, including to the United States and to the Persian Gulf region region.”

Conflict With Iran • IRAN: “we we are a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency... The bylaw of the agency explicitly states that all member states have the right to the peaceful nuclear fuel technology… Nuclear energy is our right. We wantt our right. i ht A And d we d don't't wantt anything thi beyond the law, and nothing less than international law law. We are a peaceful peaceful, loving nation. We love all nations.”

Proliferation: Nuclear Terrorism • Concern that groups not deterred by MAD could obtain a nuclear weapon. – If a terrorist attacks attacks, where do you retaliate?

• ‘Dirty-bomb’ would release radioactive material. material • Rouge states may provide technology. • Or insecure facilities could be undermined by terror groups.