Nm-02: Hamilton Campaigns Poll For Harry Teague (september 2008)

MEMORANDUM TO:

Interested Parties

FROM:

Hamilton Campaigns

DATE:October 1, 2008 RE:

New Mexico 2nd Congressional District Survey Results 1

Key Findings 1. Harry Teague now leads Ed Tinsley in the race for Congress in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. Democrat Harry Teague leads Republican Ed Tinsley by 5 percentage points (46% Teague – 41% Tinsley -- 13% undecided). In previous polling, Teague trailed Tinsley by -3 percentage points. 2. Teague’s early communication has helped define him positively. The percentage of voters who view Harry Teague favorably has increased +13 percentage points since our last poll in June, while at the same time Teague’s unfavorable rating has actually decreased 7 percentage points (now: 44% favorable – 17% unfavorable; June: 31% - 24%). 3. Ed Tinsley is still unknown to a majority of voters. Ed Tinsley’s personal image is essentially the same as it was in June (now: 33% favorable - 17% unfavorable; June: 36% – 18%). The percentage of voters who are able to rate Tinsley has actually dropped -4 percentage points since June. Bottomline Harry Teague has taken the initiative in the early part of the general election campaign to strongly define his image to voters. In other years and with other candidates, winning in this district could be difficult, but Harry Teague has put himself on solid footing to defeat Ed Tinsley and turn New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District from red to blue.

1

This memo is based on a survey of 500 registered voters who are likely to vote in the November 2008 general election in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. Hamilton Campaigns conducted telephone interviewing September 2-5, 2008. The margin of error for a sample of this size is ±4.4 percentage points, at the 95% confidence level.