Nielsen - Economic Current_august_final
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October 2009
Todd Hale James Russo Jonathan Banks Jean-Jacques Vandenheede
Nielsen Global Scorecard: Return to growth across emerging economies, while Canada, U.S., & Western Europe lag KPI Summary Chg vs. Previous Month
Jul 09
Global Topline: Summary of All Countries Mar ‘09
Aug 09
Apr ‘09
May‘ 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value**
Brazil Canada China
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
France
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Germany Hong Kong
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
India
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Italy Spain
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Taiwan United Kingdom United States
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Jun ‘09
Jul ‘09
Aug ‘09
August Topline: Growth across emerging economies, UK & CA. U.S. & Western Europe stuck in neutral. US
CA
FR
DE
UK
IT
ES
BR
TW
HK
IN
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
CN
Global Confidence & Recession/Recovery Buzz
Global Households Mired in a Recession but Signs of Easing 77%
% of global HHs that believe they are in a recession
% of global HHs that believe they will be out of a recession in the next 12 mos
71% 66%
63%
26%
26%
23% 19% Oct 2008
Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
Apr 2009
Jul 2009
Oct 2009
Global confidence improving from 1Q09 lows Globally, consumer confidence increased 4 points. In China, consumer confidence increased 6 points. 110
108 105
106 106 100
100
99 97
98
101 96
95
94
94
90
89 88
84
83
80
80
82 77
70 Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Global Average Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey
Oct-08 US
China
86 82
84
80
Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
Correlating Sentiment to Sales: U.S Consumer Sentiment and Sales consistent since 1Q09 10
100 100
90
6
83
84
82
80
80
4
80
2 70 0 60 -2
50
-4 2nd Half '07
1st Half '08
2nd Half '08
US sentiment
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey *Total U.S. – Food/Drug/Mass Merchandiser Stores (including Walmart)
1st Quart '09
2nd Quart '09
US Unit Sales % change vs prior period
3rd Quart '09
Percent Change vs Previous Period*
Nielsen Consumer Sentiment
8
3Q09 Consumer Confidence Index by Core Markets China remains to be one of the most confident markets, Brazil and some Asia-pacific markets (Australia) improved the most 125
120
Q2
115
Q3 108 106 107
Global average 86 100 100
75
67
68
FR
TR
71
73
74
75
77
84
84
US
AR
85
85
86
RU
ZA
93
94
94
HK
CA
TH
96
96
MY
SG
101
102
78
53 50
49
25
0 JP
KO
TW
UA
ES
GB
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey
DE
IT
PL
NZ
CN
AE
AU
PH
BR
ID
IN
Global Consumers Focused on Savings and Moderate Return to Discretionary Consumption 1Q 09
3Q 09 48 47
Putting into savings 31 33
Holidays / vacations
28 31
New clothes
32 30
Paying off debts / credit cards / loans
25 27
Out of home entertainment 22
Home improvements / decorating
26 21
New technology products
24 18 20
Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds 10 10
Retirement fund 0
10
20
30
40
%
50
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey, Consumer Global average response to question: How to utilizeConfidence spare cash after covering essential living expenses”
60
70
80
90
100
Country Highlights & Insights
USA Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 08
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Consumer spending still weak. Price increases at much slower rate with retail price wars
Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip?
Value retailing has strong month fueled by club back-to-school Store brand growth slowing, but branded still on decline
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Canada Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Poor weather and cool temperatures kept unit volume soft this summer as seasonal categories reported lower sales
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Aug 09
France Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Shopper frequency slows
Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Germany Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Unit sales and dollar Are shoppers shifting sales remain to value channels? moderate. Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
UK Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip?
Volume sales improving Budget and standard store brands’ growth slows, premium store brands return to growth
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Italy Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Ongoing Shift to Value Channels, overall frequency down
Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Spain Summary Aug 08
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
Ma 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Gain in optimism beginning to be reflected in spending
Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Brazil Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Brazilian economy out of recession: Lower rates, higher income and more employed persons sustain spending.Total Baskets grows1.6% YTD vs 08,
Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
India Summary Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 08
Feb 08
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? ~ Are shoppers shifting to value channels? ~ Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? ~ Are consumers spending more per trip? ~
Consistent volume and value sales gains of +5%, rebound in optimism
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
China Summary Aug 08
Sep t 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
While retail sales are still relatively flat, growth is now apparent in Modern Trade outlets which may be the first sign of an FMCG sales recovery in China
Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Taiwan Summary Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Big decrease in both retail volume and value in Taiwan due to Cut Date for Ghost Month which is very crucial (Ghost Festival Last Year was August 15, 2008 while Ghost Festival This Year was September 3, 2009), especially for Food and Beverage categories sales performance
Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 6/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 82
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Hong Kong Summary Aug 08
Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip?
Total FMCG maintained mild growth, mainly led by Non-Food categories. While Baby Products continued to demonstrate strong double digit growth, Personal Care also showed favorable expansion in facial care categories (e.g. facial mask, eye care etc) as consumers were cutting back expenses in beauty salons and shifted to DIY personal grooming products.
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
May 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Contact List • United States: – James Russo, [email protected] – Todd Hale, [email protected]
• Western Europe: – Jean-Jacques Vandenheede, [email protected] – Jonathan Banks, [email protected]
• Canada: – Carman Allison, [email protected]
• Russia: – Natalia Ignatyeva, [email protected]
• India: – Jayashree Janardhanan, [email protected]
• Brazil: – Margarita Zanella, [email protected] – Tatiana Villarinho, [email protected]
• China: – Phoebe Lam, [email protected]
• Taiwan: – Cheryl Wen, [email protected]
• Hong Kong – Acky Chan, [email protected]
• Nielsen Global Buzz: – Chelsea Peters, [email protected] – Shobhana Srinivasan, [email protected]
Todd Hale James Russo Jonathan Banks Jean-Jacques Vandenheede
Nielsen Global Scorecard: Return to growth across emerging economies, while Canada, U.S., & Western Europe lag KPI Summary Chg vs. Previous Month
Jul 09
Global Topline: Summary of All Countries Mar ‘09
Aug 09
Apr ‘09
May‘ 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value**
Brazil Canada China
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
France
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Germany Hong Kong
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
India
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Italy Spain
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Taiwan United Kingdom United States
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Jun ‘09
Jul ‘09
Aug ‘09
August Topline: Growth across emerging economies, UK & CA. U.S. & Western Europe stuck in neutral. US
CA
FR
DE
UK
IT
ES
BR
TW
HK
IN
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
CN
Global Confidence & Recession/Recovery Buzz
Global Households Mired in a Recession but Signs of Easing 77%
% of global HHs that believe they are in a recession
% of global HHs that believe they will be out of a recession in the next 12 mos
71% 66%
63%
26%
26%
23% 19% Oct 2008
Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
Apr 2009
Jul 2009
Oct 2009
Global confidence improving from 1Q09 lows Globally, consumer confidence increased 4 points. In China, consumer confidence increased 6 points. 110
108 105
106 106 100
100
99 97
98
101 96
95
94
94
90
89 88
84
83
80
80
82 77
70 Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Global Average Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey
Oct-08 US
China
86 82
84
80
Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
Correlating Sentiment to Sales: U.S Consumer Sentiment and Sales consistent since 1Q09 10
100 100
90
6
83
84
82
80
80
4
80
2 70 0 60 -2
50
-4 2nd Half '07
1st Half '08
2nd Half '08
US sentiment
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey *Total U.S. – Food/Drug/Mass Merchandiser Stores (including Walmart)
1st Quart '09
2nd Quart '09
US Unit Sales % change vs prior period
3rd Quart '09
Percent Change vs Previous Period*
Nielsen Consumer Sentiment
8
3Q09 Consumer Confidence Index by Core Markets China remains to be one of the most confident markets, Brazil and some Asia-pacific markets (Australia) improved the most 125
120
Q2
115
Q3 108 106 107
Global average 86 100 100
75
67
68
FR
TR
71
73
74
75
77
84
84
US
AR
85
85
86
RU
ZA
93
94
94
HK
CA
TH
96
96
MY
SG
101
102
78
53 50
49
25
0 JP
KO
TW
UA
ES
GB
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey
DE
IT
PL
NZ
CN
AE
AU
PH
BR
ID
IN
Global Consumers Focused on Savings and Moderate Return to Discretionary Consumption 1Q 09
3Q 09 48 47
Putting into savings 31 33
Holidays / vacations
28 31
New clothes
32 30
Paying off debts / credit cards / loans
25 27
Out of home entertainment 22
Home improvements / decorating
26 21
New technology products
24 18 20
Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds 10 10
Retirement fund 0
10
20
30
40
%
50
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey, Consumer Global average response to question: How to utilizeConfidence spare cash after covering essential living expenses”
60
70
80
90
100
Country Highlights & Insights
USA Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 08
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Consumer spending still weak. Price increases at much slower rate with retail price wars
Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip?
Value retailing has strong month fueled by club back-to-school Store brand growth slowing, but branded still on decline
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Canada Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Poor weather and cool temperatures kept unit volume soft this summer as seasonal categories reported lower sales
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Aug 09
France Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Shopper frequency slows
Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Germany Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Unit sales and dollar Are shoppers shifting sales remain to value channels? moderate. Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
UK Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip?
Volume sales improving Budget and standard store brands’ growth slows, premium store brands return to growth
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Italy Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Ongoing Shift to Value Channels, overall frequency down
Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Spain Summary Aug 08
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
Ma 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Gain in optimism beginning to be reflected in spending
Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Brazil Summary Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Brazilian economy out of recession: Lower rates, higher income and more employed persons sustain spending.Total Baskets grows1.6% YTD vs 08,
Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
India Summary Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 08
Feb 08
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? ~ Are shoppers shifting to value channels? ~ Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? ~ Are consumers spending more per trip? ~
Consistent volume and value sales gains of +5%, rebound in optimism
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
China Summary Aug 08
Sep t 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
While retail sales are still relatively flat, growth is now apparent in Modern Trade outlets which may be the first sign of an FMCG sales recovery in China
Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Taiwan Summary Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Big decrease in both retail volume and value in Taiwan due to Cut Date for Ghost Month which is very crucial (Ghost Festival Last Year was August 15, 2008 while Ghost Festival This Year was September 3, 2009), especially for Food and Beverage categories sales performance
Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 6/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 82
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Hong Kong Summary Aug 08
Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip?
Total FMCG maintained mild growth, mainly led by Non-Food categories. While Baby Products continued to demonstrate strong double digit growth, Personal Care also showed favorable expansion in facial care categories (e.g. facial mask, eye care etc) as consumers were cutting back expenses in beauty salons and shifted to DIY personal grooming products.
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4% Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
May 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Contact List • United States: – James Russo, [email protected] – Todd Hale, [email protected]
• Western Europe: – Jean-Jacques Vandenheede, [email protected] – Jonathan Banks, [email protected]
• Canada: – Carman Allison, [email protected]
• Russia: – Natalia Ignatyeva, [email protected]
• India: – Jayashree Janardhanan, [email protected]
• Brazil: – Margarita Zanella, [email protected] – Tatiana Villarinho, [email protected]
• China: – Phoebe Lam, [email protected]
• Taiwan: – Cheryl Wen, [email protected]
• Hong Kong – Acky Chan, [email protected]
• Nielsen Global Buzz: – Chelsea Peters, [email protected] – Shobhana Srinivasan, [email protected]
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