Net Small Specs
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Gold (COMEX) - Commitment of Traders 2004-2008
One look at the chart says it all - the specs have been thoroughly routed from the long side as massive liquidation has taken place among the funds with them also adding nearly 4,100 new shorts.
300,000
200,000
There was net buying to the tune of almost 14,000 as bullion banks covered 4900 of their existing shorts while end users and other large commercial interests added nearly 9000 new longs.
100,000
08 9/6 /
08 5/ 6 /
08 1/ 6 /
07 9/6 /
07 5/6 /
07 1/ 6 /
06 9/ 6 /
06 5/ 6 /
06 1/ 6 /
05 9/ 6 /
05 5/6 /
05 1/ 6 /
04 9/ 6 /
04 5/ 6 /
1/ 6 /
04
0
-100,000
The small specs added 2100 new shorts and 304 new longs. As you can see, the speculative long side is the lowest level it has been in a year.
-200,000
-300,000
-400,000
-500,000 Funds Net
Commercials - Net
Small Specs
Commercial Shorts
Fund longs Dan Norcini
Houston, TX
Commercial Activity in Comex Gold 400,000
350,000
300,000
It is interesting to note that this is the second largest commercial long position since January of this year which is also the second largest in more than the 4 years that the data series covers. At that time gold was trading near $870. It then ran to over $1030 in the next two month's time. They tend to buy on the way down and sell on the way up as they lift their long side hedges into spec buying. Apparently there are locking in long side coverage at current levels and doing so in pretty good size. This seems to confirm that there is a great deal of business being done in the physical market at current levels
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Commercial Shorts - Bullion Banks
Commercial Longs
9/6/08
7/6/08
5/6/08
3/6/08
1/6/08
11/6/07
9/6/07
7/6/07
5/6/07
3/6/07
1/6/07
11/6/06
9/6/06
7/6/06
5/6/06
3/6/06
1/6/06
11/6/05
9/6/05
7/6/05
5/6/05
3/6/05
1/6/05
11/6/04
9/6/04
7/6/04
5/6/04
3/6/04
1/6/04
0
U.S. Dollar Index - Commitments of Traders (Net Positions) 40,000
30,000
20,000
If you didn't feel the Long Dollar trade was getting crowded last week this week has set a new record for long side spec exposure and short side commercial exposure. I would call this situation extremely lobsided and would be getting quite nervous if I was a long especially considering that the Dollar floated even higher to end this week on its magic carpet ride, courtesy of the monetary authorities.
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
1/7 /03 4/7 /0 3 7/7 /0 3 10 /7/ 03 1/7 /0 4 4/7 /0 4 7/7 /0 4 10 / 7/ 04 1/7 /05 4/7 /0 5 7/7 /0 5 10 /7/ 05 1/7 /0 6 4/7 /0 6 7/7 /0 6 10 /7/ 06 1/7 /07 4/7 /0 7 7/7 /0 7 10 /7/ 07 1/7 /0 8 4/7 /0 8 7/7 /08 10 / 7/ 08
-40,000
Funds
Commercials
Small Specs
This is what a monetary authority engineered currency rally looks like when it is fully ripe on the vine and ready for plucking
One look at the chart says it all - the specs have been thoroughly routed from the long side as massive liquidation has taken place among the funds with them also adding nearly 4,100 new shorts.
300,000
200,000
There was net buying to the tune of almost 14,000 as bullion banks covered 4900 of their existing shorts while end users and other large commercial interests added nearly 9000 new longs.
100,000
08 9/6 /
08 5/ 6 /
08 1/ 6 /
07 9/6 /
07 5/6 /
07 1/ 6 /
06 9/ 6 /
06 5/ 6 /
06 1/ 6 /
05 9/ 6 /
05 5/6 /
05 1/ 6 /
04 9/ 6 /
04 5/ 6 /
1/ 6 /
04
0
-100,000
The small specs added 2100 new shorts and 304 new longs. As you can see, the speculative long side is the lowest level it has been in a year.
-200,000
-300,000
-400,000
-500,000 Funds Net
Commercials - Net
Small Specs
Commercial Shorts
Fund longs Dan Norcini
Houston, TX
Commercial Activity in Comex Gold 400,000
350,000
300,000
It is interesting to note that this is the second largest commercial long position since January of this year which is also the second largest in more than the 4 years that the data series covers. At that time gold was trading near $870. It then ran to over $1030 in the next two month's time. They tend to buy on the way down and sell on the way up as they lift their long side hedges into spec buying. Apparently there are locking in long side coverage at current levels and doing so in pretty good size. This seems to confirm that there is a great deal of business being done in the physical market at current levels
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Commercial Shorts - Bullion Banks
Commercial Longs
9/6/08
7/6/08
5/6/08
3/6/08
1/6/08
11/6/07
9/6/07
7/6/07
5/6/07
3/6/07
1/6/07
11/6/06
9/6/06
7/6/06
5/6/06
3/6/06
1/6/06
11/6/05
9/6/05
7/6/05
5/6/05
3/6/05
1/6/05
11/6/04
9/6/04
7/6/04
5/6/04
3/6/04
1/6/04
0
U.S. Dollar Index - Commitments of Traders (Net Positions) 40,000
30,000
20,000
If you didn't feel the Long Dollar trade was getting crowded last week this week has set a new record for long side spec exposure and short side commercial exposure. I would call this situation extremely lobsided and would be getting quite nervous if I was a long especially considering that the Dollar floated even higher to end this week on its magic carpet ride, courtesy of the monetary authorities.
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
1/7 /03 4/7 /0 3 7/7 /0 3 10 /7/ 03 1/7 /0 4 4/7 /0 4 7/7 /0 4 10 / 7/ 04 1/7 /05 4/7 /0 5 7/7 /0 5 10 /7/ 05 1/7 /0 6 4/7 /0 6 7/7 /0 6 10 /7/ 06 1/7 /07 4/7 /0 7 7/7 /0 7 10 /7/ 07 1/7 /0 8 4/7 /0 8 7/7 /08 10 / 7/ 08
-40,000
Funds
Commercials
Small Specs
This is what a monetary authority engineered currency rally looks like when it is fully ripe on the vine and ready for plucking
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