Nbp

SC SECURITIES (PVT) LTD. Corporate Member: Karachi Stock Exchange (Guarantee) Ltd. Corporate Office: 706, 7th Floor, Business Plaza, Mumtaz Hasan Road, Off. I.I. Chundrigar Road, Karachi. Tel:2412542-3 Stock Exchange Office: 441, 4th Floor, Karachi Stock Exchange Building, Stock Exchange Road, Karachi. Tel : 2432367 Email: [email protected]

February 11, 2005 BANKING SECTOR The out look remains positive on account of: ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

The rising T-bills rates With the stock market’s strong performance, banks are likely to book greater realized and unrealized gains Strong economic growth which is another triggering factor The year 2004, is the higher earnings year with the major portion of interest earnings. Banks have diverted major interest to consumer finance, agriculture loans and SME financing. Major reforms have been adopted to improve efficiency of the banks Deposits have recorded a growth of 46% during 2002-2003 Banks earning ratios have been improved Stable bank spreads Non-performing loans ratio is on declining track

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NBP

We recommend a Buy for the stock Expected Price range: Rs. 118 - 120 ? The bank is the safe script as per the fundamentals and technicals as the branch network is sprawling all over the country with innovations in different fields. ? The bank is trading at the discount of 10% to 11% to it’s fair value which is in the band of Rs. 118 – Rs. 120. ? 70% of the total income accounts for the mark up/interest income. ? Deposits have grown with 12% aggregating to Rs. 443.185 billion in 9 months period ended September 30, 2004. ? Advances have been increased from 160.990 billion (YE 31.12.03) to Rs. 187.431 billion (3QE 30.09.04). ? The bank con tains NIT units in it’s portfolio which are secured by the government of Pakistan that if the banks continues to hold them upto 2006, the government will facilitate the redemption of these units at Rs. 13.70 per unit to mitigate the risk of adverse fluctuation. ? More than 90% of the investments of the bank is secured in terms of government securities. ? The expected earnings for the year ended December 31, 2004 may be Rs. 12.5 – 13.5 with bonus issue of 10 – 15% alongwith the cash dividend of 20 - 25%. We recommend a BUY for the stock on account of the attractive fundamentals and our valuations. This report is produced by SC Securities (Pvt.) Ltd. and is only for the use of their clients. This document should be read in the investors’ own interest and it sh ould not be consider as an offer for sale. The information contained is from sources believed reliable, we do no represent that it is accurate or complete and should not be relied upon as such.