Monthly Market Watch For Maricopa County Monthly Market Watch For Maricopa County

Monthly Market Watch for Maricopa An An overview overview of of what what is is County happening in the Maricopa County real estate market (using November November 2009 2009 statistics)

Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS

Report overview:

This report includes MLS data for the past 36 months in Maricopa County only as provided by the FlexMLS system. Please note that searches fluctuate daily when running these reports; these figures were obtained on 12/3/09. Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS

Total # of Closed Sales (36 month overview)

9000

M ay

8000

J une

July

A pr

O ct

A ugust Sep

7000

No v

M ar 6000 5000

De c

Feb Jan

4000 3000 2000

12/ 06 to 11/ 07

1000 0

De c

12/ 07 to 11/ 08

12/ 08 to 11/ 09

Jan

Feb

M ar

A pr

M ay

June

J uly

A ugust

Sep

O ct

Nov

12/ 06 to 11/ 074 850

4000

4419

5412

5025

5240

4882

4227

3838

2976

3000

2908

12/ 07 to 11/ 082 913

2506

3030

3731

4200

4822

4900

5089

4847

5306

4613

3726

12/ 08 to 11/ 094 759

4069

4718

6554

7445

8093

8235

8008

7028

6969

7147

6657

Closed Sales Report Analysis: Sellers:

The November numbers showed a 6.8% decrease in the number of homes sold over the prior month. This is due in part to the normal seasonality of the year as well as the decrease in available inventory. We actually expected a higher spike due to the end of the buyer’s credit; however, with the extension of this credit, we may not be benefiting from the sense of urgency that was present earlier in the fall. November had the lowest number of closed sales since March of this year.

Buyers:

Buyer activity is still higher than in the same month of the prior 2 years, primarily because of affordability, low interest rates, and incentives. This is a great time for buyers to be active, as there tends to be less competition for homes during the holidays. Interest for homes still remains; however, the decrease in the number of bank-owned properties may have buyers focusing their attention even more on new builds (not reflected in this market report) and short sales. Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS

REO, Short, and Regular Sales Comparison (November 2009)

Regular SALES

REO/ Bank Owned SALES

2,661 , 40%

2,647 , 40%

SHORT SALES 1,349 , 20%

Distressed Sales Analysis: This has become an even more important part of the market report, as it shows the percentage of sales that were bank owned/foreclosed, short sales, and regular sales. This will be an important trend to watch as we move forward with this market to see if there are any shifts in the type of homes being sold. A bank owned/foreclosure home is one that the seller no longer owns – it has been taken over by the lender(s) who had a note on the home. Short sales are homes where the seller is negotiating with the bank to “forgive” a portion of the debt in order to avoid foreclosure. For the second month in a row, statistics showed a significant increase in non-distressed home sales … a 4% increase. Short sales remained at the same percentage (20%), and bank-owned sales dropped by 4%. As rumors of bank-owned properties entering the market after the first of the year Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS play out, this will become even more important to watch.

12000

Total # of PENDING Sales (36 month overview) 10000 A pr M ar M ay

8000

June July

A ugust

Sep

O ct

Fe b 6000

Jan

No v

Dec 4000 12/ 06-11/ 07 12/ 07-11/ 08 12/ 08-11/ 09

2000

0

Jan

Feb

M ar

A pr

M ay

June

July

A ugust

Se p

O ct

No v

12/ 06 -11/ 07 4178

De c

5175

5118

5662

5221

5146

4501

3981

3527

2920

3184

2951

12/ 07-11/ 08 2626

3316

3654

4260

5012

5164

5539

6177

4963

4796

4449

4031

12/ 08-11/ 09 4552

5662

6470

8600

9641

8190

7969

7300

7179

6882

6624

5321

Pending Sales Report Analysis: Sellers:

Pay attention – November saw a 20% decrease in the number of pending sales over the prior month. This is the 7th month in a row, that the number of pending sales has decreased AND is the lowest this number has been since December of last year. Contributors definitely include the buyer credit deadline that just passed, shrinking inventory, the seasonality of home buying, and more homes remaining as Active With Contingency until they close. Since homes usually take 45-60 days to close after they go pending, it will be very important to continue to monitor the impact on closed sales over the next few months!

Buyers:

Buyers have been given a reprieve with the extension and modifications in the home buyer credit. As a result, this just might be the perfect time to look for a home – the holidays usually mean less competition, and buyers may be able to find the home of their dreams before buyer activity picks up again after the first of the year. Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS

Average Sales Price (36 months) $380,000 $355,000 $330,000 $305,000 $280,000 $255,000

12/ 06-11/ 07 12/ 07- 11/ 08

$230,000

12/ 08-11/ 09

Dec $205,000

Jan Feb

$180,000 $155,000

Dec

J an

Feb

M ar

Apr

M ar

Apr

M ay

M ay

June

J une

July

J uly

A ug

Aug

Sep

Se p

O ct

Oct

Nov

No v

12/ 06-11/ 07 $341,645 $350,605 $343,595 $356,912 $343,389 $361,497 $362,067 $353,711 $354,402 $316,436 $335,146 $335,116 12/ 07-11/ 08 $328,813 $329,909 $307,045 $310,472 $293,464 $284,632 $278,957 $261,238 $247,587 $227,672 $222,284 $216,819 12/ 08-11/ 09 $202,801 $188,174 $178,659 $165,298 $166,355 $169,800 $177,246 $181,038 $176,326 $182,231 $177,512 $181,895

Average Sales Price Analysis Sellers:

November saw an increase in the average sales price of 2.4%! This is good news as we enter the holiday season and finish off the first round of buyer credits. November traditionally does see a drop in average sales price, so there is no doubt that the buyer incentive and affordability are continuing factors in sales prices.

Buyers:

Buyers need to continue to monitor this statistic, as it shows how much home they are getting. We hit our 36-month lows in March and April of this year – since that time, the prices have steadily increased – buyers are paying on average 10% more for homes now than they did in the spring of this year. Continue to watch this as we go into 2010 with the increased incentives and likelihood of more bank-owned properties entering the market. Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS

Average Days on M arket (sales) 150

140

130

M ar Feb

A pr

M ay

120

J une Jan July

110

Dec A ug

100

12/ 06 -11/ 07

Sep O ct

90

Nov

80

12/ 08 -11/ 09

70

60

12/ 07 -11/ 08

Jan

Feb

M ar

Apr

M ay

June

July

A ug

Sep

O ct

Nov

12/ 06 -11/ 07 97

Dec

105

112

106

104

104

104

111

112

113

120

119

12/ 07 -11/ 08 127

137

139

132

135

129

134

125

115

104

105

113

12/ 08 -11/ 09 109

116

125

129

125

123

119

112

101

95

92

92

Average Days on Market Analysis Sellers:

Statistics showed that the average days on market for homes that sold in November stayed the same as in October – 92 days. Considering how many short sales are on the market, this is still a very impressive number and remains tied for the lowest number days in the entire 36 month reporting period. Remember, however, that there are still thousands of foreclosure properties that have been “on hold” with the economic restructuring … we are still waiting to see when and how those properties will be introduced to the market and what impact those properties will have. For sellers who need to sell in this market, it is more important than ever to remain competitive and take advantage of the current buyer activity in the marketplace.

Buyers:

Buyers need to be aware of this number because it is an indicator of how long sellers are having to wait to go under contract and close. The higher the number, Provided by Keller Williams Professional Partners – Statistics from Novemberdrops, 2009 MLSas it has in the last the more control aRealty buyer normally has. As this number 2 months, buyers need to understand that competition for great homes will

Average List to Sales Price Ratio 98.00% Sep 97.00%

O ct

A ug June

96.00%

Nov

J uly

M ay 95.00%

A pr

Dec

12/ 06 to 11/ 07

Feb Jan

94.00%

12/ 07 to 11/ 08

M ar

12/ 08 to 11/ 09

93.00%

92.00%

Dec

Jan

Feb

M ar

A pr

M ay

June

July

A ug

Sep

O ct

Nov

12/ 06 to 11/ 07 96.00%96.00%97.00%96.00%96.00%96.00%96.00%96.00%96.00%96.00%95.00%95.00% 12/ 07 to 11/ 08 94.00%94.00%95.00%95.00%95.00%95.00%95.00%96.00%96.00%97.00%96.00%95.00% 12/ 08 to 11/ 09 95.00%94.10%94.40%94.28%95.18%95.50%96.20%96.40%96.87%97.45%97.08%96.80%

List to Sale Price Ratio Analysis Sellers:

After seeing several months of a rises in the list to sales price ratio, November saw a drop of nearly .3% over the prior month. This means that sellers are getting 3.2% LESS for their home than the listed price. This could mean many things … it could mean that buyers are having better luck at negotiating the price OR it could be that the prices of homes more closely mirror the current market. With the decline in bankowned properties, we may not be seeing as many “fire sale” prices on homes that raised this ratio in the year.

Buyers:

Buyers need to pay attention. Although the average is less than 100%, on lower priced/highly desirable properties buyers may still have to pay above list price. Since a home must appraise in order to obtain a loan, underwriters are looking very closely at prices and making sure that homes are selling at or below market value. Make sure your real estate professional helps you understand the competitiveness of the list price of the home you are wanting to purchase. You also need to be aware of the interest and sales activity in the area where you are wanting to buy and how the offer you are making competes with the market AND with the trend toward higher sales prices.

Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS

M onthly Expireds & Cancelled Listings 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 J an Feb

6,000

M ar

5,000

12/ 06 to 11/ 07

A pr

Dec

M ay

12/ 07 to 11/ 08

June

12/ 08 to 11/ 09

July

4,000

A ug

Sep

O ct

3,000

Nov

2,000 1,000 -

De c

Jan

Feb

M ar

A pr

M ay

June

J uly

A ug

Sep

O ct

No v

12/ 06 to 11/ 07 7,414 5,961 5,690 6,412 6,650 7,368 7,924 7,635 8,345 8,267 8,891 7,826 12/ 07 to 11/ 08 9,224 7,924 6,511 7,357 7,657 7,546 7,707 7,193 7,247 7,291 7,179 6,252 12/ 08 to 11/ 09 5,221 6,517 6,062 6,342 5,441 5,006 4,899 4,126 3,596 3,601 3,564 3,361

Expired & Cancelled Listings Analysis Sellers:

The number of expired and cancelled listings dropped 5.7% in November over the prior month. We continue to see more and more homes staying on the market AND selling. This means more competition for sellers AND is an indicator that, at many price points, homes are selling.

Buyers:

For buyers, this statistic is a good one, because it means a few more homes are remaining on the market. However, with the shrinking inventory and increased sales, this is also a reflection that fewer homes are leaving the market because sellers are having more success. Continue to watch this trend, as this, combined with price, days on market, and list to sales price ratio are an important indicator of what buyers need to do in order to be successful in closing on the home of their dreams. Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS

INVENTORY OVERVIEW Following is an overview of what is happening with the inventory of homes currently available in Maricopa County and the MLS. Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS

New listings by month 15

Thousand

14 13 M ar

12 Jan

11

O ct

Feb

July

J une

Sep

Aug

Dec

10

A pr

9

M ay

Nov

8 7 12/ 06- 11/ 07

6 5

Dec

Jan

Feb

M ar

Apr

M ay

J une

12/ 07-11/ 08

July

A ug

12/ 08- 11/ 09

Sep

O ct

Nov

12/ 06-11/ 07 7587

14137 12203 14693 13417 13012 12501 12108 12882 11339 12503 10203

12/ 07-11/ 08 7832

14115 11469 11864 12010 11334 11845 11831 11872 12412 12682 10728

12/ 08-11/ 09 10217 11195 10915 12375

9346

9336

10674 10804 10666 10673 11247

9315

New Listings Analysis Sellers:

November saw a 17.2% decrease in new listings entering the market. This is the lowest figure since December of 2008. The reduction in the number of bank-owned properties is no doubt a factor as well as the normal drop off that happens in November due to our seasonality in our market. Sellers need to be prepared to see what impact the pending bank-owned properties will have on the market and their ability to sell their homes this month and as we enter 2010.

Buyers:

This is not good news for buyers, as it means fewer choices which could also result in more competition for homes that are available. It is very important that you continue to spend time with and listen to your real estate professional to develop your strategy for succeeding in a market that is constantly changing. Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS

Active Listings in ARM LS (36 month --Residential Summary in ARM LS) 65,000

60,000 De c Jan 55,000

Feb M ar

tle xisT A

50,000

45,000

A pr

40,000

M ay

35,000

Nov J un

30,000

Dec

Jan

Feb

M ar

A pr

M ay

Jun

Jul

A ug

Sep

Jul

A ug

Se p

O ct

O ct

Nov

12/ 06 to 11/ 07 48,820 51,387 52,581 53,656 54,997 57,516 57,516 57,575 58,837 59,592 60,535 60,614 12/ 07 to 11/ 08 58,608 56,995 59,495 59,954 60,227 57,342 57,342 56,005 55,400 55,323 56,561 57,264 12/ 08 to 11/ 09 57,350 55,247 53,313 51,679 39,286 34,195 32,010 31,375 31,591 31,962 32,658 33,962

Active Listings Analysis Sellers:

The MLS saw another increase in the number of active listings in October … an increase of 4% over October. With 33,962 residential homes on the market in the MLS, there are still choices for buyers. Compared to December of last year when there were 57,350 homes on the market, sellers have the potential to be in a much better position when they are looking for the perfect buyer. As the projected waive of bank-owned properties enters the market after the first of the year, this will be another important statistic to monitor.

Buyers:

Buyers should be happy about this number, as it means more choices! We have had a steady increase in inventory of active homes since July of this year. Continue to monitor this, as it directly impacts the price you offer on a home as well as the terms you are able to negotiate in a contract. Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS

M onths of Inventory (36 month history) 25.00

20.00

15.00

De c No v

Jan 12/ 06 to 11/ 07 12/ 07 to 11/ 08

10.00

Feb

12/ 08 to 11/ 09 M ar

5.00

0.00

Nov

Dec

Jan

Fe b

M ar

A pr

M ay

Jun

A pr

M ay

Jun

Jul

A ug

Sep

Jul

A ug

Se p

O ct

O ct

12/ 06 to 11/ 07 10.07 12.85 11.90 9.91 10.94 10.82 11.78 13.62 15.33 20.02 20.18 20.84 12/ 07 to 11/ 08 20.12 22.74 19.64 16.07 14.34 12.27 11.70 11.01 11.43 10.43 12.26 15.37 12/ 08 to 11/ 09 12.05 13.58 11.30 7.89

5.28

4.23

3.89

3.92

4.50

4.59

4.57

5.10

Months of Inventory Analysis:

(This report has been generated by taking the number of active listings and dividing it by SALES for the past month)

Sellers:

November numbers showed an increase to 5.1 months of inventory. This is up from 4.57 months in October, but well below the high of 22.74 months we had in December of 2007. It will be very important for you and your real estate professional to monitor this number so that you can make sure your home is priced accordingly.

Buyers:

Buyers will want to continue to monitor this, as 5 or fewer months inventory normally indicate a seller’s market, giving more control to the sellers than the buyers. However, the type of market will vary from price range to price range and even area to area. Work with your real estate professional to make sure you understand the type Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS of market you are in.

Total Market Overview: Sellers:

This report provides a detailed breakdown of homes in Maricopa County based on price … by determining the price range where your home SHOULD sell, you can see what the average list to sales price ratio is, the average days on market, and more importantly, the percentage of homes selling in that price range. Note that as the price increases, so does the days on market AND the list to sales price ratio decreases. You will also see a lower percentage of homes selling as the price increases.

Buyers:

By reviewing the price range where you are purchasing, you can determine what the average home is selling for vs. list price. This should help you make better and more acceptable offers based on the current market. Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS

IMPORTANT INFORMATION: Although these reports are beneficial in understanding the general market in Maricopa County, it is essential that you meet with your real estate professional to study these same figures in your area, as statistics will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood. As you make decisions related to the purchase or sale of a home, it is important that you understand how the current real estate trends will impact your decisions. Your real estate professional is available to help you monitor and interpret them to make sure that you are taking advantage of the current market whether you are selling OR buying.