Mobile Lives And Times

INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: Mobile Lives and Times

SPRING 2009

and now

MOBILETECHNOLOGY is taking it TO THE NEXT LEVEL.

2 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: MOBILE LIVES AND TIMES

HUMAN INTELLIGENCE. REAL INFLUENCE.

Photo: creativecommons.org/brighterworlds

THE INTERNET laid a FOUNDATION

INTRODUCTION

GLOBALIZATION HAS BEEN the headline for years as it has changed the face of communication, finance,

Photo: creativecommons.org/LaertesCTB

business and society. But globalization isn’t a stand-alone phenomenon; it’s totally dependent upon mobility. Constant movement from place to place has made the last few decades frenetic. In fact, by historical standards we live in an era of supermobility. Crops have become supermobile: Fresh flowers are flown to auction in the Netherlands from far-off growers in Colombia and Kenya, then freighted on to customers in other countries. Manufactured products are supermobile: China imports raw materials from all over the world and exports finished goods in a quick turnaround. People are supermobile: In addition to long commutes, we routinely travel great distances for business and leisure. Not only are we moving around like never before, we’re more connected while we’re doing it. Mobile technology enables us to maintain our connections as if we were at home, and it fosters new ones—blurring the line between life and work, and keeping consumers better informed than ever. The biggest change of our era is the mobility of information. Information is not just supermobile; it’s hypermobile. With the one-two punch of digitization and wireless Internet, vast amounts of words, sounds, images and data move around the world every second. This aspect of mobility is the focus of this issue of Intelligent Dialogue.

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INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: MOBILE LIVES AND TIMES

3

BIG QUESTION

1

PEOPLE AND PRODUCTS have been mobile throughout history, and we have always endeavored to improve our methods. From the wheel to the bullet train, from the Wright brothers to the space shuttle, technology has evolved to increase speed and convenience. When it comes to the mobility of information, witness the effects of innovation over barely a generation. Just think about how different the key features of day-to-day life were only 10 years ago.

How much of that change is the direct result of information mobility? With a small phone cradled in one hand, you can now watch live video broadcasts from anywhere in the world; you can instantly and cheaply swap text messages with a friend on another continent; you can receive a work document, review it, revise it and return it in minutes; you can download a song and listen to it on the spot, or watch a TV show; you can update your Facebook or Twitter status; you can

4 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: MOBILE LIVES AND TIMES

locate and track your friends via GPS; and of course, you can call your mom. In a “need it right now” culture, these devices allow a custom-tailored experience unlike any before—doing what you want, wherever and whenever you want. The Internet laid the foundation, and now mobile technology is taking it to the next level. Make that “levels.” This hypermobile, deeply penetrating, always available, customized experience is changing the face of business and life beyond.

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Photo: Clockwise from top left creativecommons.org/ Kapungo; _dakini_; *0* PrincessCCC

How has mobiletechnology so drastically improved from just 10 years ago?

> WHAT ARE THE KEY MOBILE TECHNOLOGY FACTORS THAT HAVE CHANGED OUR LIVES? Digitization has given information wheels and wings—from words, music, still images and moving images to more abstract information such as location, price, temperature and biomedical metrics (heart rate, blood pressure). Is there anything that can’t be digitized and made mobile? Innovation is constantly redrawing the mobile landscape, but here are five standout ways we’ve seen it make a big difference in our lives in just the past few years.

Files are virtually portable, too. With cloud computing, we no longer need to manage discs and CDs and printouts for sharing or saving files. They can be held in remote storage (Gmail or Facebook, for example) and accessed from anywhere with a connection, a login and a password. There’s less and less need to plug in. Away with the Ethernet cables and dial-up connections of yesteryear: WiFi and 3G offer high-speed, large-bandwidth, untethered connections. And even faster, highercapacity technologies are on the way. It’s always personal. In most instances, a laptop, PDA or phone is used by a specific individual, enabling that person to communicate from anywhere at anytime. Relative affordability of phones, service plans and personal computers means that in many cases different

members of the same household have their own devices. And even when you’re away from your own device(s), a login and password reconnect you. Devices communicate. This is the “invisible” part of mobile communication technology. With sensors and processors wirelessly reporting their status to base stations via low-cost wireless chips, Bluetooth and widespread networks, devices can communicate with just about anything anywhere. There are doubtless more distinguishing features of 21st-century mobility than the five we’ve chosen to focus on. And plenty more will come as we move out of the first decade of the century.

Photo: from top to bottom creativecommons.org/robertnelson; Peter Hosey; Leonard Low

Files are physically portable. With one pocket-size mobile device, an ordinary individual can effortlessly carry thousands of contacts, documents, songs, images and movies. In non-digital form, this information would be impossible to tote, but in digital form it’s weightless. Before digitization made information portable there was analog microfilm and microfiche, designed to store large amounts of text and picture information in a small space. They were great in their day, but unlike digitized forms, they

weren’t searchable. And unlike digitized forms, they lost quality with each copy.

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INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: MOBILE LIVES AND TIMES 5

DIGITIZATION has given

Photo: creativecommons.org/danorthi

INFORMATION wheels and WINGS . 6 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: MOBILE LIVES AND TIMES

HUMAN INTELLIGENCE. REAL INFLUENCE.

BIG QUESTION

2

How much more mobile can things get?

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GIVEN THE CHOICE, people want to be mobile. The flexibility is irresistible. Why be tethered if you don’t have to be, even if you’re at home or in the office? We’re using technology not only to communicate personally and get entertainment on the move, but also to enable efficiencies in numerous fields of business. According the International Association for the Wireless Telecommunications Industry (CTIA), by the end of last year, 270 million Americans subscribed to

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wireless service (versus 208 million in 2005 and 110 million in 2000), and 18 percent of households were wireless only (versus 8 percent in 2005). The economic crisis had its impact. The fourth quarter is typically the strongest for new mobile subscriptions but in 2008 it was the weakest according to figures compiled by Informa Telecoms & Media consultancy. Nevertheless, by the end of 2008, there were just fewer than 4 billion active mobile subscriptions globally (that means that around 58 percent of the world’s

population has an active mobile subscription), up from 1 billion in 2002, according to a report by UN agency International Telecommunication Union. In 2008, 75 billion SMS text messages were sent per month, up from 7.2 billion in 2005 and just 12.2 million in 2000. Data from iPass, a company that provides mobile connectivity to remote business users, indicates steep growth of worldwide usage; access to its WiFi services showed an increase of 46 percent last year over 2007.

ManyLIVES Minds. Singular Results. AND TIMES 7 INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: MOBILE

There are whole classes of mobile data being transmitted automatically and invisibly, without human intervention, in the background. There’s data generated by phones interacting with base stations; there’s data communicated by engine management systems in cars or personal health monitors for patients; there are simple radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags that identify and track shop inventory, public transportation passes or passports. Then there are utility meters for gas or water usage in which automatic meter reading (AMR) technology transmits the data. And in warehouses or other product storage spaces, electronic inventory tagging enables pick-and-place systems or material-handling devices to quickly store and retrieve inventory while wirelessly logging important statistical information. Public safety vehicles equipped with GPS devices can log routes, timing and mileage, which are beamed wirelessly to the fleet manager. And their onboard systems can track important data such as water levels or medical supplies and transmit the information to inventory managers. Livestock managers can fit small wireless devices to dairy cattle, so that automated milking sheds can track data to help monitor each animal’s yield and health.

Zoologists can use wireless devices to track the movement of fish, birds and mammals over huge distances. In short, watch out for a simple rule of thumb: Any object or system that changes or moves will sooner or later have mobile technology applied to it. The scope is virtually infinite.

> HOW WILL WE AVOID CRIPPLING INTERNET TRAFFIC JAMS? The “Internet of People” has been able to grow so big because it’s built on globally accepted standards such as TCP/IP and HTML. That will continue to grow apace, but the next wave is expected to come from the “Internet of Things”—smart devices that communicate: thermostats, lights, generators, vehicles, environmental monitors, cameras, medical machines. The Internet of Things was named one of Time magazine’s best inventions of 2008, though it’s arguably more of a collection of concepts than a single invention. The volume and complexity of the potential data traffic is mind-blowing. There are literally billions of smart objects that can be usefully connected, creating a virtually infinite combination of interactions and entirely new businesses. What’s stopping the Internet of Things from taking off is the lack of common communication standards. A group of tech vendors and users called Internet Protocol for Smart Objects (IPSO) Alliance is aiming to rectify the situation. IPSO describes a smart object as one that combines sensing, computational power, communications capability and a small power source (like a battery) to provide real time information to a host application. The Internet of People had the advantage of starting small with no clear business model and few big commercial interests. By the time it grew big enough to matter, its technical standards were established. The Internet of Things faces a tougher challenge because its potential is already clear; there are

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competing proprietary standards vying for dominance (Zigbee, Bluetooth, Z-Wave), just as there were in videotapes (VHS versus Betamax), in mobile telephony (GSM versus CDMA, which is still not resolved) and in optical storage (Blu-ray versus HD DVD). Another stumbling block for the Internet of Things is a shortage of addresses. In the current Internet system, IP addresses consist of four groups of three digits. But as it runs out of addresses for its own purposes, let alone for the needs of billions of smart objects, it will be replaced by a new system that provides four times the address space. That means billions more Internet addresses. The next generation of the Internet will be truly mobile-ready rather than retrofit. So back to that question: How much more mobile can things get? Think back to the jump from typewriters to word processors. The move from stand-alone computers to networked computers. The advance from unwieldy wired desktop units to neatly portable, wireless laptops. And don’t forget the jump from landlines to mobile phones. With each of these shifts, consider how much opened up in terms of innovation, applications and usage. We are all headed for a world in which everything is connected, in which mobility is the norm. Any business that isn’t seriously integrating mobility into its future risks not having a future.

> MUST MARKETERS ADAPT TO MOBILITY OR DIE? WHAT TOOLS WILL HELP? In the world of brick-and-mortar retailing, there’s an ironclad rule: Location is vital. Visibility and main-street foot traffic are crucial for stores and restaurants. Those off the beaten path may pay less rent, but they’re effectively invisible to wander-by customers. But mobile marketing via location-based services (LBS) may help those less fortunately located bend the rule— offering coupons that flag their presence to nearby mobile users, for example. Location-based data enables businesses to target customers when they are nearby. Though HUMAN INTELLIGENCE. REAL INFLUENCE.

Photo: Clockwise from top left creativecommons.or/Collin Anderson; altermark; storem

These statistics refer only to data involving deliberate action on the part of the user, whether that’s writing a text message or e-mail, making a voice call, online chatting, taking a photo or receiving a video. Yet these growing figures represent only the tip of the mobility iceberg.

WHAT'S STOPPING

INTERNET OF from

THE

THINGS

taking off is a lack

Photo: creativecommons.org/Alan_D

of COMMUNICATIONS STANDARDS.

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INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: MOBILE LIVES AND TIMES

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75 BILLION TEXT MESSAGES

were sent

Photo: creativecommons.org/kiwanja

in 2008, U P F R O M 7 BILLION in 2005.

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the practice will only work with a mobile user’s permission, it still opens the door to a potential nightmare of intrusive messaging. To take advantage of the technology without the risk of getting on consumers’ nerves, businesses may sign up for LBS directories and peer-recommendation services, which mobile users access voluntarily. Consumers may also download software apps that provide this sort of information and convenience. Seattle-based Sortuv offers one. Its pitch: “Discover places, events, products, people, ideas and experiences that matter to you by comparing and connecting them to things you already know and like.”

Photo: from top to bottom creativecommons.org/jeremyfoo; NET-BUSINESS; Michael_Lehet

From the provider’s point of view, the challenge of LBS is monetization—who pays, for what and how? Currently about 10 million customers in North America pay a monthly subscription fee for an LBS, such as Verizon’s VZ Navigator, AT&T Navigator, uLocate’s WHERE Widget app or loopt. But as plenty of competing services are coming up for free, aren’t they eroding the incentive to pay? In this environment, some wireless service providers resort to the good old free-trial model, in which an LBS service is launched as free for a number of months with the intent of getting the user to upgrade to a higher-spec paid version. The balancing act, as always, is to make the free version powerful enough to become a must-have, then offer enough additional functionality in the paid-for version to make it worth buying. Industry analyst Mark Lowenstein thinks there is potential for mobile operators to work closely with search partners to provide users with strongly branded results. Since operators own—or at least mediate—the user relationship, this puts them in the driver’s seat, directing who shares what information with whom. Mobile tracking—with users’ permission—is a huge opportunity to learn about where customers go, as the basis for a market research and segmentation tool.

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With the right incentives for users and the proper data protection safeguards, tracking customer behavior in real life could take marketing intelligence to the next level. For example, tracking behaviors in a shopping mall would show real live consumers in action. What are the typical sequences of movement for consumers within particular stores or between stores? How do they differ by demographic group? This type of info might be extremely granular on an individual level but reveal bigger trends when aggregated and processed smartly. Another mobile business innovation is the personal bar-code reader. Most cell phones and PDAs these days have a built-in digital camera; combine that with wireless capacity and you have the makings of a reader. This kind of pull technology is a no-brainer when it comes to mobile marketing ethics; a user who scans a bar code is actively requesting information, hence giving permission for marketing messages to be sent. In theory, anyone with a mobile device and the right software can gather information by scanning bar codes in print media and on packaging. In practice it’s not so simple, and it’s once again down to the niggling question of standards. The Mobile Codes Consortium (MC2) hasn’t yet decided on one.

> HOW ARE EMERGING MARKETS ADAPTING TO MOBILE AND MAKING IT WORK FOR THEM? In developed markets, mobile technology is growing fast as features such as email, browsers and video overlap from device to device. In developing countries, far

fewer people can afford computers; for them, mobile devices are more affordable and more accessible. Buying a mobile telephone is less of a leap than buying a computer in terms of price, technology and learning. Mobile is proving to be a great stepping stone into technology—and encourages new social and business ideas. More people in emerging markets are now opting for mobile telephones over traditional fixed lines; this means they’re far more likely to access the Internet via a mobile device than a computer. In poor, rural communities it’s easier and cheaper to install mobile infrastructure than fixed line. This creates a business opportunity for local people who can set themselves up with a mobile device as a pay phone, then resell airtime to others. In effect, they become a micro-telecom. Mobile-phone technology can help producers find the best market for their goods. As reported by Robert Jensen of Harvard, once mobile

INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: MOBILE LIVES AND TIMES 11

In the same area of India, the adoption of mobile phones led to a 6 percent increase in educational enrollments and a 5 percent increase in the probability of seeking out health care when sick. In Bangladesh, “mobile ladies” are employed to visit villages carrying a handset. They go door-to-door, listen to people’s problems and make calls to the Rural Information Helpline, a central resource connecting people with the information they need. The practice also provides a living for the “mobile ladies.” Young people are typically the most enthusiastic adopters of mobile-phone

technology, and Latin American countries as well as Hispanic communities in North America tend to have a young age profile. With the exception of Brazil, Latin Americans from Patagonia to British Columbia share a common language, so there’s huge potential for the Latin mobile space. Mobile specialist MSCorp aims to leverage these factors, offering mobile media production and marketing with a mobile content distribution network across a group of companies in North, Central and South America. The company has a dedicated portal for young Latin Americans, Maxi Móvil, where they can meet and interact with their peers in the region, take part in mobile competitions and participate in mobile promotions.

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phones were introduced in 1997, fishermen still at sea off the coast of the southwest Indian state of Kerala were able to call in and compare the offers they’d get from 17 different markets along the coast, enabling them to determine the most efficient landing spot. The impact was impressive: reduced waste, increased profits (up 8 percent) and reduced consumer prices (down 4 percent).

While mobile users in developed markets are meeting “luxury” needs (finding where they parked the car, identifying song titles, etc.), users in emerging markets are figuring out applications and business models that may be hugely influential in fostering development.

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MOBILE TRACKING

OF

CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR could

Photo: creativecommons.org/aburt

take MARKETING INTELLIGENCE to the next level.

EVEN IN DEVELOPED

COUNTRIES, many

front-line health care providers

ARE LAGGING ON BASIC COMMUNICATIONS

Photo: creativecommons.org/arantxamex

TECHNOLOGY, let alone mobile applications.

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BIG QUESTION

How does

3

mobiletechnology affect

our core needs—to work, provide for our families

and stay healthy?

IN SOME WAYS it’s a welcome paradox

WORKING FROM HOME ONE DAY SOON? Thanks to

“out of sight” could lead to “off the payroll.” Nevertheless some wonder, if your tasks are primarily computer-based and you aren’t needed for hour upon hour of in-person meetings, what’s the sense in commuting several hours a week just to sit in a different room in front of a different screen to do the same things? Online networking allows offsite workers to link into most internal servers. And of course while employees may lose the social benefits of the workplace, they can still engage in informal chats with coworkers via instant message or Twitter.

the economic crisis, we’ve seen growing interest in the efficiencies that teleworking can provide. But with layoffs looming large, some wonder if it’s not better to put in face time at the office; the fear is that

Consultants and freelancers are frequent teleworkers. Technology enables them to assemble a career from multiple projects, using a mobile device or laptop as a business portal—what Daily Beast

Photo: creativecommons.org/jasonDGreat

that mobile technology will eventually allow us to stay put wherever we are. Between tightened security measures, volatile fuel prices and traffic congestion, travel can be an irksome experience. This is a long-term trend; in a world of ballooning populations and growing cities, it won’t get better, easier or cheaper.

> WILL WE ALL BE

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editor-in-chief Tina Brown called “Gigonomics,” or the Gig Economy. It’s increasingly common as companies downsize and shed full-time employees. A Daily Beast U.S. poll in January showed one-third of respondents were working freelance or in two jobs. According to human resources group WorldatWork, more than 28 million Americans now work from home at least one day per month. And the number is expected to rise to 100 million by 2010. The sum of all teleworkers—employees, contractors and business owners— increased from 28.7 million in 2006 to 33.7 million in 2008. The most common locations for remote work are the home (87 percent), a customer’s place of business (41 percent) and the car (37

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A recent Economist article posed that if the 33 million Americans who have jobs that could be done from home were to stay home instead of driving to work, oil imports would drop by more than a quarter, and carbon emissions would fall by 67 million metric tons a year. The same article cited the efficiency of telecommuters at American Express, who generate over 40 percent more business than their office-bound colleagues;

similarly British Telecom’s 9,000 teleworkers are 30 percent more productive than their office counterparts. Employment specialists Manpower report that 15 percent of the EU workforce can be described as mobile workers (spending more than 10 working hours per week away from home and their main place of work) and 4 percent as mobile teleworkers. These numbers have the potential to grow considerably. Forty percent of the EU workforce have expressed interest in

permanent teleworking (working from home), while 52 percent would like to alternate telework (at least one working day spent at home per week). High-speed connections and video applications make on-the-fly video meetings cheaper and more effective, but at the higher end, the watchword is “telepresence”—it’s a form of turbocharged video conferencing that makes remote participants appear life-size with fluid motion, accurate flesh tones and flawless audio. Telepresence solutions can work with spreadsheets, slide decks, documents or even the minute details of physical objects. They are already in use in businesses as diverse as pharmaceutical research labs, film and television studios, university courses and neurological operating rooms.

> HOW FAR BEHIND THE CURVE ARE HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS? For both patients and providers, the world of health care can feel like one long pause. Whether it’s patient records, insurance claims, appointments, prescription plans, test results or diagnoses, the processes and the waiting can feel interminable. But mobile

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Photo: from top to bottom creativecommons.org/veganstraightedge; Andy G

percent). Restaurants and libraries are becoming less popular places to plug in.

technology offers great potential for speeding things up, not to mention lowering costs and improving results. The applications aren’t yet widespread but the ones in place beg the question: Why aren’t more organizations doing this? Mobile monitoring devices and telemedicine enable patients to leave the hospital and live at home while still being monitored for their ailment. They allow seniors to live more independently. Soon, the “Worried Well”—those who want to check in with their doctor if something comes up—will be able to invest in devices that can take over some of the basic functions performed by health care staff. Ultimately, these things reduce costs in the health care system. As a test, Kaiser Permanente Telehomecare Research Project followed 102 telemonitered patients and 110 regular patients in the United States. Each had a condition that needed monitoring: congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), stroke, diabetes, cancer, anxiety or the need for wound care. Total costs per monitored patient were $1,948, compared with $2,674 for non-monitored. Remote telemonitoring delivered a 27 percent reduction in total costs, as well as less need for hospitalization.

health status of an aging parent who lives alone. A traveling diabetic athlete can have a real-time discussion about blood sugar levels and heart rate with a coach hundreds of miles away. Although the United States has tended to lead the way in applying mobility to medicine, plenty of other countries are working on it. The London-based Journal of Telemedicine & Telecare brings a rigorous academic approach to the field, bringing together reports of research such as the Dutch project “A framework for the design of user-centered teleconsulting systems” and “Store-and-forward telemedicine for doctors working in remote areas” from French researchers working in Antarctica. It’s not only well-off people in developed countries who stand to benefit; mobile health care technology can drastically reduce costs and increase range and power of diagnostic tools, making them usable in poor, remote areas. In Bangalore, India, Bigtec is awaiting approval of its “lab on a chip,” where biology, chemistry, electronics, optics, micro fluidics and software converge in a handheld device

that can diagnose a pathogen in 10 to 12 minutes for just 100 rupees, compared with a conventional system that takes four to six hours and costs 7,500 to 15,000 rupees. The device is Bluetooth-enabled, so data can be transmitted through a cell phone to a remote diagnosis center. These are inspiring applications but they’re not yet common. In fact many front-line health care providers even in developed countries are lagging on basic communications technology, let alone mobile applications. Many doctors’ offices are only now digitizing patient records. On the other hand some are catching on impressively. Getting chronically ill kids to adhere to therapy can be difficult, particularly as they advance into adolescence. Some studies suggest only half properly follow treatment steps, says Dennis Drotar, a researcher at Cincinnati Children’s Hospital. Doctors at the clinic are experimenting with text messages to remind teens to take their medication. Participants can program (or the clinic can do it for them) text reminders. Pilot testing is currently under way, with a full study set for later this year.

Centura Health at Home’s telehealth program followed HMO patients who’d had a hospitalization or ER visit in the last six months. After six months, telemonitored patients saw a 90 percent reduction in admissions and a 73 percent reduction in overall charges, net of the costs of the remote telemonitoring program.

Photo: creativecommons.org/Ethan Bloch

Health care growth is attracting interest from big names outside the industry. In October 2007, Microsoft launched Health Vault—online storage for personal medical details and a service that links to monitoring devices as well as to software used by hospitals and doctors. Google Health allows users to store, manage and share their own medical records securely. IBM recently announced its collaboration with Google and the Continua Health Alliance, in which its software streams data gathered from home health monitoring devices into a patient’s Google Health account or other personal health record. This sort of technology makes vital health information available to authorized parties. For example, a busy mom can receive daily electronic updates on the

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INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: MOBILE LIVES AND TIMES 17

BIG QUESTION

4

What’s ahead

IN THE CLASSIC DYNAMIC, developments depend on the interplay between infrastructure (“pipes” and related technologies), devices and applications. And in a classic evolution, there’s a looming conflict between competing technologies.

> WHICH INFRASTRUCTURE WILL WIN OUT—WIMAX OR LTE? It goes without saying that people want more—more capacity at higher speeds in more locations. The next “more” is an increased wireless data transfer speed of 100 megabits per second (Mbps), which would allow us to scrap our wired connections even for HDTV. Now, how do we get it? Bluetooth has done a great job with low-power, short-range wireless

Photo: from top to bottom creativecommons.org/Nova deViator; Uploaded on August 22, 2007 by gnislew; Intel CES 2008

in mobility ? connections, such as computer to cell phone, computer to printer or cell phone to earpiece. But the battle for the next wave is between two high-powered technologies—WiMax and LTE. Fixed network operators favor WiMax, an evolution of broadband WiFi, as an upgrade to current services; trouble is, it has to be installed as a new network. Mobile network operators prefer Long Term Evolution (LTE), which runs on Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) infrastructure, already used by 80 percent of mobile subscribers globally. LTE is not yet as evolved as WiMax and will take longer to deploy. As with competing technologies of the past (Betamax versus VHS, Blu-ray versus HD DVD), it’s a tough call right now for operators to commit. They may look for

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ways to go with both, using LTE to support mobile broadband users and WiMax to support fixed or lower-mobility broadband users. Similarly, LTE could provide macro cellular coverage while WiMax does micro cell coverage.

system allocates higher priority to handoffs when they’re needed.

> WHAT’S THE NEXT BIG MOBILE DEVICE? “Convergence” is the word of the day when it comes to mobile devices. The hottest so far have been those that combine as much as possible in one gadget—talk, text, e-mail, Web, gaming, video, etc. And those that have a full Qwerty keyboard.

> CAN THE BANDWIDTH COPE WITH ALL THE TRAFFIC? It was the telephone companies who laid the pipes of today’s mobile networks. Their original business was providing voice communications via fixed telephone lines or cellular networks. Voice traffic in those pipes has long since been dwarfed by data traffic and we are continually looking for ways to increase capacity.

Photo: from top to bottom creativecommons.org/drustar; ezola

Dynamic bandwidth allocation is one way to handle both voice and data. Taking into account that we aren’t all making calls or sending texts or videos at the same time, this technology allocates bandwidth on demand. Since most traffic comes in bursts, gaps between packets of information can be filled with other traffic.

When it comes to mobile, the challenges of bandwidth allocation are more complex. Service providers are still working out strategies for accommodating narrowband (voice) and broadband (data), in order to minimize “handoff call dropping”—whereby voice connections are lost when a mobile connection passes from one cell to another. Networks have residual “guard channels” that are typically reserved for handoffs (voice); these channels can be used for data traffic too, provided the

BlackBerry was the uncontested champion in the early 2000s. Sales have reached 50 million and makers RIM estimate that 21 million current users send three petabytes of data each month. Then Apple launched the iPhone in June 2007. In the first five quarters, 6.1 million were sold. The iPhone 3G followed in July 2008, and 6.9 million units sold in just the first quarter. News from the battle of the mobile gadgets shows that the iPhone accounts for 66 percent of mobile Internet browsing compared with just 7 percent for Windows Mobile.

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INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE: MOBILE LIVES AND TIMES 19

IS THE WORD OF THE DAY when it comes to MOBILE DEVICES.

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Photo: creativecommons.org/Wonderlane

CONVERGENCE

Facebook, followed by Google Earth and Pandora Radio. The list of top paid apps is dominated by games, with Crash Bandicoot Nitro Kart 3D at number one. But bear in mind the App Economy is not even a year old. Blackberry and Google’s Android OS have only just started bringing out competition. It’s very early days and the real “killer apps” may be a twinkle in a developer’s eye. In this economy many creative people have time on their hands. Watch out for an explosion of wildly innovative and original applications vying for a place on your mobile device. As with the fax machine of old and e-mail after that, it may take a while for the “network effect” to emerge, with the value of the system increasing exponentially while the user base increases arithmetically.

> DO WE EVEN NEED

Photo: from top to bottom creativecommons.org/Robert Scable; thms.nl; jugglerpm

Established brands have since put out plenty of great similar phones—Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, Motorola, Samsung, LG— but so far it’s only the relative outsiders (RIM and Apple) who’ve launched true innovation. Who and what will be the next game changer? Amazon’s Kindle allows users to download, store and read books, newspapers and magazines as well as blogs and other user-generated content. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has an ambitious goal: “Our vision is, every book ever printed in any language, all available in less than 60 seconds.” Already the Kindle DX holds up to 3,500 books, with a battery life of four days using wireless or two weeks without. It uses 3G rather than WiFi. If such a specialized product can stimulate and satisfy the need for handy, searchable publications better than two-way mobile devices do, it may establish a new niche in everyday life.

Another relative newbie, Google’s Android, isn’t a device and it isn’t an application, but it does aim to be a game changer. It’s a software platform and

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operating system based on open standards so that third-party developers can create their own applications. Android bills itself as “a complete set of software for mobile devices: an operating system, middleware and key mobile applications.”

> WHICH WILL BE THE NEW MUST-HAVE APPS? Before phones could access the Internet, SMS was the addiction. Though texting is now considered old tech, it’s still extremely popular. Is there something compelling about the brevity and immediacy of a message limited to 160 characters? The answer also explains the runaway success of microblogging service Twitter, which limits messages to just 140 characters—and which can accept text messages. Part of the success of the iPhone has been its embrace of third-party apps (they can be downloaded free or for a small cost that is shared with Apple). Apple’s App Store has kick-started what one might call the App Economy. Thousands of developers are figuring out ways to turn the features of mobile devices (e.g., computation, connectivity, location awareness, accelerometer, touch screen, microphone and speaker) into compelling, low-cost applications that can be downloaded and bought on the fly. Watch mobile device users comparing and swapping apps, and you’ll see the insanely viral nature of the App Economy in action—see, like, download. At the time of writing, the top free app for iPhone is

TO BUY TRADITIONAL SOFTWARE PROGRAMS ANYMORE? Many common apps (Word, Excel) don’t need to be installed on a computer now; they can be held online and accessed through a browser, which greatly expands mobility options and convenience for users. They’re called virtualized applications, or Software as a Service (SaaS). Salesforce.com offers a pioneering Webbased customer relationship management (CRM) solution for sales, service, marketing and call center operations, where users pay to use the CRM SaaS. In the last turbulent months of 2008, Salesforce.com replaced Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the S&P 500, marking the growing popularity of this technology. Google has been busy with SaaS and cloud computing, offering free use of a suite of applications accessible through a Google account: Mail, Talk, Calendar and Docs (documents, presentations and spreadsheets). Cloud computing is important because it shifts the balance of power and possibilities. Having remote servers doing all the processor-intensive “heavy lifting” and memory-intensive data storage frees up mobile devices (including laptops) to focus more on great connectivity, convenience, user experience and battery endurance. It opens a path for simpler, lighter and more affordable devices that don’t get clogged up with massive software programs (aka, bloatware). On the downside, it makes users highly reliant on fast and dependable connections and on massive server farms in far-off places.

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aren't JUST about manners.

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Photo: creativecommons.org/Ahmed Rabea

MOBILE PHONE RESTRICTIONS

BIG QUESTION

5

How has mobile technology reprogrammed

Photo: from top to bottom creativecommons.org/tiseb; Pegabovine

TECHNOLOGY HAS CHANGED almost every aspect of life in some way. At the very least, it shapes our activities and our interactions. And the change won’t stop. No matter which generation a person was born into, he or she will have to adapt to more change. Winding back a few decades, the success of transistor radios, car radios and the Sony Walkman showed that people wanted entertainment on the move. As technology grows, people expect to be connected and entertained everywhere: in the waiting room, in the bathroom, on the commute, at the gym, in church. People expect to control their lives in a mobile way—programming the DVR remotely, or checking the home security system cameras online. Services like Sling Media allow users to

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us as people?

view shows from their home cable or satellite connection via a mobile device. These are cool and compelling developments for people who love new things. But when there’s so much “wow,” there’s little inclination to wonder about the greater societal impact of all this change we’re lapping up. There’s no doubt that once a person has a mobile device, something changes—why else has the Blackberry earned the nickname Crackberry? One of the most riveting background stories of the Obama Inauguration focused on whether he’d agree to forego

his Blackberry, even prompting a Time magazine piece headlined “Will the Blackberry Sink the Presidency?” which acknowledged how the distraction of mobile devices can negatively impact concentration and performance. Once a person has experienced true mobility, going without it can be a real challenge.

> DO WE NEED A MISS MANNERS FOR MOBILE? Mobility cuts both ways. It keeps us connected and allows us flexibility, but it can also prevent us from being fully present. It blurs the line between professional and personal life.

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E-mails can make work life more efficient but a constant stream of them interrupts concentration. Our ability to disconnect and truly unwind suffers. There are few places anymore where people aren’t yakking into their phones or peering into their screens. In both business and social meetings it’s not unusual for someone to flip open a laptop or start typing on a phone. After President Obama’s February speech to Congress, the Washington Post reported how “lawmakers watched him with the dignity Americans have come to expect of their leaders: They whipped out their BlackBerries and began sending text messages like high school kids bored in math class.” Intrusive mobility is so widespread now that maybe new codes of behavior need to be agreed upon. It’s already happening in concert halls and movie theaters, where there are routine announcements to switch off phones. They’re often banned in business meetings. A Massachusetts town recently voted to ban texting and e-mailing during public meetings. The mobile phone restrictions aren’t just about manners. All it takes is one disgruntled employee to dial a number on a cell phone before going into a confidential meeting to transmit the conversation to whomever is listening.

computer killed a family of six and was jailed for three years. California Sen. Carole Migden (who ironically voted to ban cell phone usage while driving) crashed her SUV while reaching for her ringing phone. It’s not surprising. Research from the University of Utah found that drivers make more mistakes when talking on a cell phone than they do when talking to passengers. The study also found that even when drivers use a hands-free cell phone, driving performance is significantly compromised. In January, the U.S. National Safety Council (NSC) called on motorists to stop using cell phones while driving. It urged businesses to enact policies prohibiting it and governors and legislators in all 50 states and the District of Columbia to pass bans. “Studies show that driving while talking on a cell phone is extremely dangerous and puts drivers at a four times greater risk of a crash,” said Janet Froetscher, president and CEO of the NSC. A study from the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis estimates that cell phone use while driving contributes to 6 percent of crashes, which equates to 636,000 crashes, 330,000 injuries, 12,000 serious injuries and 2,600 deaths each year. The study also put the annual financial toll of cell phone related crashes at $43 billion.

> WHAT ARE THE BIOLOGICAL HEALTH IMPLICATIONS OF MOBILE TECHNOLOGY? There’s been no definitive proof of risks— or lack of them—from exposure to wireless radio frequencies. Mobile technology has been in widespread common usage for barely a decade and in heavy use for only five or six years. The sort of health risks some fear to be associated with it—namely tumors and cancer—generally develop over a longer time span. What does science say on the subject? Science Daily reported in 2006 that a Copenhagen research team performed a cancer screening study of cell phone users who began use from 1982 to 1995 and were followed through 2002. They did not observe an association between long- or short-term cell phone use and brain tumors, salivary gland tumors, eye tumors or leukemia. That study suggests cell phone use is not linked to cancer risk. Wi-Fi seems unlikely to pose any risk to health, according to Lawrie Challis, chairman of the U.K. Mobile Telecommunications and Health Research program. He says the key is to keep the transmitter away from the body. “Wi-Fi exposures are usually very small. The transmitters are low power. … However, we should also encourage [young children] to use their laptops on a table rather than their lap, if they are going online for a long time.”

Photo: from top to bottom creativecommons.org/jamesks; inhisgrace

Ultimately, as with TV and the Internet, it’s up to individuals to set their own limits. In the words of Gustavo Javier Wrobel of Motorola: “It is a philosophical decision and not a technological question. The great benefit is that you have the power to work when and where you want.”

> ARE WE RISKING OUR SAFETY?

All over the world, we hear reports of fatal accidents caused by people talking or texting while driving—even though many countries have legal penalties for doing it. Just this year in the U.K., a member of the upper house of Parliament was jailed for 12 weeks for texting just before he was involved in a fatal crash. A truck driver using a laptop

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INTRUSIVE MOBILITY is so widespread that MAYBE NEW CODES of BEHAVIOR

Photo: from top to bottom creativecommons.org/basykes

need to be AGREED upon.

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IN CONCLUSION

SOME TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGHS seem revolutionary from the outset. That was arguably the case with personal computing, the first mobile phones, the Internet and GPS. Subsequent innovations in the same field seem simply evolutionary rather than revolutionary: laptop computers, 3G mobile phones, wireless broadband and integrated GPS. However, the pace of innovation and the spread of mobile technology is happening so fast that the sector is shaping up to drive an even bigger revolution than what we’ve experienced so far. IS MOBILE TECHNOLOGY “THE SINGULARITY” IN ACTION?

Technological guru Ray Kurzweil wrote about the law of accelerating returns in his book “The Singularity Is Near.” The Singularity is technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.

HOW CAN MARKETERS KEEP UP?

In pre-digital times, less than two decades ago, marketers and media specialists could be expected to know all possible routes to reach consumers. Somebody who learned his or her media and marketing in the 1970s could continue to apply that old knowledge through the 1980s and into the 1990s. Now knowledge from even five years ago is outdated. We’re inundated with dozens of new ideas and services every day. There is no single body of knowledge—it’s all being (re)invented on the fly. It’s essential now for marketers to always be in learning mode: to network and pool intelligence (swapping links, insights and ideas) and to be bold in developing their own innovations. One of the most obvious opportunities is to make use of the masses of real-time personal data, to identify who is likely to be open to a conversation. Yet tech evangelist and videographer Robert Scoble recently pointed out how marketers

had missed seizing such an opportunity with him: He had announced on a number of social media platforms that he and his wife were expecting a baby. “Yes, we’re having another baby. But look at what did not happen on Twitter: not a single diaper company contacted us. Not a single maternity clothing company. Not a single car company (yes, we’re going to buy a new one soon). Not a single camera company (already bought a new one for this occasion). Not a single insurance company (I need more). Not a single bank (I need to start saving for another college student). Not a single stroller company (need a new one that can hold two). Not a single vitamin company (Maryam is going through her prenatal vitamins at a good clip). Not a single shoe company (Maryam needs new shoes for pregnancy, and Milan is growing fast too).” If the Internet created (among other things) a medium for remote communication and interaction, then mobile technology takes it all to the next level—remote communication and interaction anytime and anywhere. Mobile technology greatly increases possibilities and presents platforms for having the right conversation with the right person at the right time.

Photo: from top to bottom creativecommons.org/tolitzdelacasa

We have not yet reached the stage of merging biological and non-biological intelligence, creating immortal softwarebased humans or developing ultra-high levels of intelligence. However, the curve of developments is approaching vertical. Each new capacity increases the potential exponentially, permitting a virtually infinite number of possible applications.

For a simple example, take Apple’s App Store for the 3G iPhone. Opened July 10, 2008, nine months later it hosted more than 25,000 third-party applications. That’s just one brand and one platform.

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The Porter Novelli

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WHAT PORTER NOVELLI UNIQUELY OFFERS can be summed up in two words: Intelligent Influence. It’s our philosophy, our mind-set and our passion. But what actually is it? It is engaging people in dialogue, which we have proven is more ef fective than bombarding them with messages. By sparking INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE, we encourage people to question and ultimately change their own actions and viewpoints. It is knowing what genuinely motivates and moves people across the world. We have the ability to connect with them wherever they are, allowing us to more easily shape their behaviors, beliefs and attitudes. This is Intelligent Influence. And we work hard to achieve it on behalf of the brands and clients we work for.

ABOUT PORTER NOVELLI: A global public relations leader, Porter Novelli was founded in 1972 and is a part of Omnicom Group Inc (NYSE: OMC). With 100 offices in 60 countries, Porter Novelli helps clients achieve Intelligent Influence—changing attitudes and behaviors by having the right conversations with the right people at the right time. Human intelligence. Real influence. Visit porternovelli.com.

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