27 Jan. 09
United - States : The Leading Economic Indicators rose in December United - States : Existing home sales surprisingly rebound in December Pfizer buys Wyeth for $68bn Dow Chemical won’t buy Rohm & Haas
Gold Prices ($/Oz) since January 2005
Source : Bloomberg
Gold prices rallied to a four-month high above $900 an ounce as a weaker dollar enhanced the metal’s investment appeal. Gold had fallen in the first half of January , mostly playing off a stronger dollar.
Indexes DJIA
Price 8116,0
% 5 Days -1,96%
Forex
Price
% 5 Days
Ytd
-7,52%
EUR/USD
1,3274
2,84%
-5,01%
Ytd
S&P 500
836,6
-1,57%
-7,38%
EUR/JPY
119,29
-2,91%
-5,90%
Nasdaq
1489,5
-2,61%
-5,55%
USD/JPY
89,86
-0,06%
-0,92%
CAC 40
2955,4
-1,15%
-8,16%
Oil
Price
% 5 Days
Ytd
DAX
4326,9
0,25%
-10,05%
Brent $/b
46,6
9,45%
11,76%
Eurostoxx 50
2226,8
-1,14%
-9,02%
Gold
Price
% 5 Days
Ytd
DJ 600 FTSE 100 Nikkei Shanghai Comp Sensex (India)
188,1 4209,0
-0,84% 2,50%
-5,19% -5,08%
Gold $/oz
904,0
5,39%
2,43%
Rates
USA
Euro
Japan
8061,1 1990,7
-6,96% 1,85%
-9,01% 9,33%
Central Banks* Overnight 3 Months
0,25 0,15
2,00 0,90
0,13 0,13
CLOSED
-7,27%
MICEX (Russia)
617,8
4,53%
-0,28%
Bovespa (Brasil)
38509,5
-0,82%
2,55%
0,14 1,19 0,24 10 Years** 2,65 3,33 1,27 *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Refi ** Euro: German Bund rate
Source : Bloomberg
FOMC Meeting (Jan. 27th-28th) European Gas Conference in Vienna (to January 29) The Bank of Japan publishes minutes from its December meeting. World Social Forum 2009 in Brazil (to January 29) China' s markets are closed all week. Hong Kong' s reopen Thursday A Moscow court resumes a hearing in a lawsuit brought by the Federal Customs Service against Bank of New York over tax claims. Paris hosts its spring-summer 2009 haute couture collections (to January 29). 12th African Union summit (to February 3) Meeting between the United Nations secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon and Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero on tackling global hunger in Madrid (to January 27)
Time
Country
00.50 am 00.50 am 00.50 am 08.45 am 08.45 am 10.00 am 10.00 am 10.00 am 10.00 am 10.00 am 03.00 pm 04.00 pm 04.00 pm 11.00 pm
Japan Japan Japan Germany France Germany Germany Germany Italy Euro area United States United States United States United States
Indicator
Period
BoJ Monetary policy meeting minutes Corp service price (YoY) BoJ to publish Minutes of Dec 18-19 board meeting Import price Index Housing starts 3M YoY% change IFO Business Climate IFO Current assessment IFO expectations Trade balance ( excluding Europe) ECB Euro Zone current account S&P/CS Composite - 20 YoY Consumer confidence Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ABC Consumer confidence
December December December December December January January January December November November January January January 25 th
GE forecasts
Consensus
Previous
-2,4% YoY
-2,0% YoY
-2,9%,-3,7%YoY
-3,4%,-1,3% YoY -14,4% 82,6 88,8 76,8 € -1234 million € - 6,4 billion -18,04% 38,0 -55 -53
82,6
40
81,0
-18,40 % 39,0 -50 - 53
!
"
Results Siemens (BMO) / ST Micro (after US close) / KPN / Lonza / SBM Offshore / OMV / Du Pont / Bristol Myers / Caterpillar / Verizon / Yahoo! / United State Steel / Sun Microsystems Dividend ACS (€0.90)
Obama veut convertir l’Amérique à la voiture propre, Le Figaro économie, p.19 Berlin va emprunter autour de 50 milliards d’euros cette année, Les Echos, p 9 Mégafusion dans la pharmacie, La Tribune,. P16 Obama moves to allow state limits on emissions, The Wall Street Journal, p 12 More woe as 75,500 jobs axed in one day, Financial Times, p 13
Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company
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-2-
Economic data preview
Today ,watch in the United States the release of the Conference board consumer confidence for January due at 04.00 pm and expected to slightly increase after reaching an historical low in December as the drop of energy and commodity prices are dragging up the household purchase power. Today ,watch in the Germany the release of the IFO business climate for January due at 10.00 am expected to remain stable after reaching an historical low in December as it seems that the IFO reached its bottom level and will remain low but constant . Keep an eye as well on the Consumer Price Index (preliminary) which is expected to decrease as energy and commodity prices are on a lasting drop trend ./JB ate
ECONOMY UNITED - KINGDOM : THE BBA LOANS FOR HOUSE PURCHASE ROSE IN DECEMBER After reaching their lowest level in November at 17,339, United-Kingdom home loan approvals rose in December to reach 22,051 in December. This surprising increase is following the cut of the BoE leading rate of 50 bp to reach 1.50%, and will unfortunately not last as the United-Kingdom recession is deepening especially in the bank sector which is sinking and increasing the credit crunch. UNITED - STATES : THE LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS ROSE IN DECEMBER The U.S. Leading Economic Indicator increased 0.3% in December, much better than expected ( -0.2%), The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index decreased 0.5% and the Conference Board Lagging Economic Index decreased 0.4% in December. The Leading Economic Indicator slight rise in December is mainly due to the lasting and important contribution from real money supply and the Conference Economic Index sharp fall in December, amid a further contraction in industrial production as well as of employment . UNITED - STATES : EXISTING HOME SALES SURPRISINGLY REBOUND IN DECEMBER Existing home sales unexpectedly rose in December from a record low, mainly led by the sharpest slump in prices since the great depression. Indeed purchased rose 6.5% in December ( prior -9.4%) to an annual rate of 4.74 million ( forecast 4.40 million) from 4.45 million in November .This rise can be analysis as a correction from the previous month which was exceptionally low as the figures are not seasonally adjusted this kind of drop is rather frequent around the holidays ( as we will more likely see a rebound in spring). The rebound of existing home sales in December was as well led by a distressed -property related jump in the West including California, Nevada and Arizona representing around 45 % of all sales last month. Unfortunately the housing slump is at the center of the global credit crisis and economic downturn so despite this rebound it will more likely last in 2009. UNITED - STATES : THE DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY IS STILL WEAK IN JANUARY The Texas manufacturing activity remained weak in January at -50.5 after dropping to low record in November ( -61.0) and reached -60.6 in December. Indeed concerned about general economic outlook are huge as the global recession is deepening affecting negatively the business sentiment. Most of the economic indicators are down : Labour market weakened further , prices are on a lasting decrease trend, material inventories and capital expenditures are down and assessment of future activity remains mostly pessimistic. /JB
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-3-
Pfizer buys Wyeth for $68bn Dow Chemical won’t buy Rohm & Haas
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Despite a move in the red before the end of the session, the major indexes kicked off the week with moderate gains on promising data from the housing sector and a better than expected reading of the Leading Indicator. After a jump in oil prices, oil companies (ExxonMobil +0.72 %, ConocoPhilips +1.97 %, Chevron +0.66 %), oil services (Schlumberger +2.21 %, Transocean +4.94 %, Noble Drilling +8.35 %) and refiners (Valero +5.12 %, Sunoco +5.28 %) rose. Halliburton’s (+3.40 %) revenue rose +17% at $4.91bn ($4.79 exp.) and net profit decreased 32% at $468m ($690m n1). Operating margins were impacted by lower volume. Pricing pressure toward end of quarter is expected to continue in 2009. About $1.8bn remains available under its share repurchase program. Utilities followed the move (Exelon +3.40 %, First Energy +4.18 %) while basic resources were mixed: Nucor -5.02 %, US Steel -4.32 %, Freeport McMoran +9.34 %, Alcoa +0.24 %. With the exception of Morgan Stanley (+1.98 %) and JP Morgan (+0.90 %), banks were on the downside: Citigroup -4.03 %, Bank of America -3.85 %, US Bancorp -11.13 %, Wells Fargo -2.46 %, American Express -5.00 %, Goldman Sachs -0.95 %. Other financials were mixed: State Street +5.57 %, BlackRock -4.29 %, Visa -3.90 %, MasterCard -1.86 %. Freddie Mac (-5.88 %) may need additional $30-35bn from US Treasury to offset projected losses in its mortgage portfolio. Sales of existing homes unexpectedly rose in November (+6.5 % to 4.74 million) from a record low, propelled be the biggest slump in prices (-15 % YoY) since the Great Depression as foreclosures surged (2.3 million last year. Homebuilders were broadly higher: KB Home +0.88 %, Pulte Homes +2.42 %, DR Horton +1.57 %, Lennar +14.33 %, Centex -1.75 %. Among consumer stocks, Mc Donald’s (+0.65 %) revenue decreased 3.1% at $5.57bn ($5.696bn exp.) with comparable sales +7.2% and net profit –22.4% at $985.3m ($1.273bn n-1), operating profit +10.9%. The company plans to invest $2.1bn of capital in 2009 to open about 1,000 new restaurants and reinvest in existing locations. Kimberly Clark (-0.63 %) said revenue declined 3.3% at $4.6bn ($4.652bn exp.) and net profit went 8% down at $419m ($456m exp.). It sees 2009 net sales down 4-5% but EPS improving in H2.It sees significant headwinds from pension expense and currency effects in 2009 so plans no buyback. The sector was broadly up: Colgate +0.16 %, Procter & Gamble +0.66 %, Coca-Cola +1.97 %, Starbucks -0.88 %, Yum Brands -1.58 %, Nike -0.02 %, Altria -0.89 %. Heinz (+2.96 %) could become an acquisition target once credit markets come unstuck. Heinz shares, which currently trade at around $36, could ultimately fetch up to $60 or $70 each if the likes of Nestlé, Kraft () or Unilever are interested in the company. Even without acquisition bid Heinz’s shares have the potential to rise around 30% (Barron’s). Cyclicals were down: Dow Chemical -7.61 % (won’t buy Rohm & Haas -13.25 %), DuPont -4.06 %. With the exception of J.C. Penney (-0.72 %) and Walgreen (-0.48 %), retailers rose: Lowe’s +2.99 %, Stapples +4.22 %, Best Buy +2.06, Gap +0.25 %, Sears +2.27 %, Nordstrom +0.38 %. Home Depot (+4.65 %) said it will cut 7,000 jobs and will freeze the salaries of all its officers as the housing slump persists. Among industrials, Caterpillar’s (-8.38 %) revenue rose 6% at $12.92bn ($11.97 exp.) and net profit decreased 32% at $661m ($975m n-1). The company sees 2009 profit to drop significantly from 2008, puts temporarily stock repurchase program on hold and announced nearly 20,000 job cuts and buyout shares due to pension funding needs. Danaher (+9.28 %) said revenue rose 1% at $3.18bn ($307 exp.) and net profit decreased 4.5% at $305.7m ($20.2m n-1). It expects 2009 to be difficult. Ford (+7.78 %) has sufficient liquidity to fund restructuring plan, no need for additional stake help. With the exception of Deere (-3.55 %) and General Motors (-3.15 %), industrials and defence were up: General Electric +3.24 %, 3M +1.25 %, United Technologies +2.66 %, Boeing +2.45 %, General Dynamics +2.40 %, Northrop Grumman +2.55 %. Techs were up (Microsoft +2.50 %, Dell +1.68 %, Apple +1.45 %, Oracle +1.07 %) while semiconductors were mixed: Sun Microsystems +2.16 %, Intel +1.98 %, Nvidia +3.37 %, Xilinx +1.75 %, National Semiconductor +2.61 %, but Texas Instruments -1.47 %, AMD -2.90 %. Telcos rose: AT&T +2.72 %, Verizon +1.81 %, QWest +2.40 %, Sprint +1.22 %. Hotels and leisure were mixed: Wynn +3.09 %, Marriott +0.35 %, Starwood +1.05 %, but MGM -2.55 %, Las Vegas Sands -2.52 %. Airlines decreased: Delta -3.22 %, AMR -5.38 %, SouthWest -1.50 %. Pfizer (-10.32 %) will pay $68bn to acquire its rival Wyeth () in what would be the largest pharmaceutical deal in nearly a decade. Pfizer is expected to pay roughly $50.19/share, $33 in cash and 0.985 Pfizer’s share for each Wyeth (15% premium). Pfizer was still finalizing a $25bn financing package and Wyeth dropped the talks to buy Crucell (-13.88 %). Merck (-1.45 %), BMS (-0.63 %) were down. AFTER SESSION: Citigroup +1.50 %, American Express +1.64 %, Amgen –1.98 %, Wells Fargo +0.45 %
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This morning (7.45 GMT) INDEX FUTURES for March expiry were up : DJIA +1.57 %, S&P 500 1.58 %, Nasdaq +1.17 %./JFV Treasury prices fell on Monday, pushing yields to the highest in weeks, as the government began a slew of debt auctions this week, ranging from short-term bills to $8 billion in 20-year inflation-indexed securities. The TIPS received bids for $1.92 for every dollar available, close to the average in the last four sales of the securities. Indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 54% of the sale, also near the average of the last four. Earlier, the Treasury sold $29 billion in three-month bills at a rate of 0.152% and $28 billion in six-month bills at a rate of 0.350%. The Treasury Department also will put record amounts of two- and five-year notes up for bid, reducing investors' willingness to buy higher amounts at yields already near the lowest ever (Treasurys 2-year rate at 0.84 %, +4bps, 5year rate at 1.66 %, +4 bps, 10-year rate at 2.65 %, +4 bps, 30-year rate at 3.39 %, +8 bps). The 10-year Treasury U.S./Europe rate spread rose to -68 bps vs. -61 bps. /JFV Japan’s markets soared 378.93 or 4.9 % to close at 8,061.07 in Tokyo. The market rose on expectations government and central bank rescue plan injecting public funds will boost companies short on funding and as U.S. economic data surprisingly eased. Financials jumped ( Mizuho +11.65%, Resona Holdings +10.20% ,Mitsubishi+8.52%, Sumitomo+8.14%),car sector jumped (Toyota+8.17%, Suzuki+7.95%,Denso+7.70%)and Honda Motors which get more than half its profit in North America soared 9.3% after the U.S. Conference Board’s Index leading indicators rose. Component went up (Tokyo Electron+8.72%,Nec+7.85%,Fujitsu+6.51%),electronic sector went up ( Panasonic+6.91%,Fujifilm+6.79%),oil sector went up ( INPEX+3.96%) and heavy industry sector went up ( Daikin Industries +6.14%)./JB
Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company
23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 www.global-equities.com
-4-
UP
% -2,21 TELECOM ITALIA SPA -1,95 SANOFI-AVENTIS -1,90 FRANCE TELECOM SA -1,83 ALSTOM -1,07
26/1/09 8116 837 1489 8657 19583 38509 1068 11962 6981
% Chg +0,48% +0,56% +0,82% +0,33% +1,21% +0,99% +0,10% +1,21% -0,10%
Source : Bloomberg
Asia Indices Nikkei Topix Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Thailand Indonesia Taiwan China India
27/1/09 % Chg 8061 +4,93% 805 +4,84% CLOSED CLOSED CLOSED 439 +0,55% 1337 +1,60% CLOSED CLOSED 8945
Dow Jones
NOKIA OYJ
DOWN
21,74 16,93 CREDIT AGRICOLE 16,29 SA SOCIETE GENERALE 11,03 BNP PARIBAS
America Indices DJIA S&P 500 NASDAQ TSX Bolsa (Mexico) Bovespa (Br.) Merval (Argent.) IPSA (Chili) IGBVL (Pérou)
Euro Stoxx 50
%
ING GROEP NV-CVA27,75 AEGON NV
% Chg +3,67% +3,05% +3,86% +3,54% +3,73% +5,87% +2,08% +3,08% +2,48% +0,86%
% % % Dow Jones Nikkei 225 4,65 PFIZER INC -10,32 CHUO MITSUI TRUST 12,85 HOLDINGS GENERAL ELECTRIC3,24 CO CATERPILLAR INC -8,39 NGK INSULATORS LTD 12,55 HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL 3,01 INCAMERICAN INTERNATIONAL -8,03 GROUP MITSUBISHI MATERIALS 12,50CORP AT&T INC 2,72 AMERICAN EXPRESS -5,00 CO NIPPON SHEET GLASS 11,93 CO LTD UNITED TECHNOLOGIES 2,66 CORP DU PONT (E.I.) DE NEMOURS -4,06 MIZUHO FINANCIAL11,65 GROUP INC HOME DEPOT INC
Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company
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DOWN
Euro Stoxx 50
26/1/09 2227 188 4209 4327 2955 248 5417 18784 8375 2094
UP
Europe Indices EuroStoxx 50 DJ 600 FTSE 100 DAX (XETRA) CAC 40 AEX (Pays Bas) SMI (Suisse) S&P / MIB (Italie) IBEX 35 (Esp.) BVL (Portugal)
DOWN
.)+2
UP
%1
Crude oil prices retreated from a three-week high on demand fears after 50 000 job cuts were announced by US companies (Caterpillar, Nextel, Home Depot…). Note that the International Monetary Fund is expected to cut its forecast for 2009 global growth this week. The WTI prices that was boosted by a weaker dollar and a strong equity market, finally fell $0.74 or 1.59 % at $45.73 a barrel in a very volatile session while the Brent dropped 1.19 % at $45.83 a barrel. The future for March delivery was up 1.55 % at $46.44 a barrel. /LC The yen weakened for a second day against the dollar and the euro as gains in stocks reduced demand for the currency as a haven from the financial crisis. The British pound and the euro strengthened as speculation eased that losses will widen at European banks (1.3189 EUR/USD vs. 1.2912 yesterday morning, 117.98 EUR/JPY vs. 114076, 89.47 USD/JPY vs. 88.87). /JFV
+3,10%
Nikkei 225
% -11,17 TAIYO YUDEN CO LTD -5,58 NIPPON PAPER GROUP -1,69INC YAMAHA CORP -0,51 OBAYASHI CORP 0,00 EBARA CORP
-5-
3 SIEMENS : Q1 revenue €19.63bn (19.18bn exp) / New orders €22.22bn (22.18bn exp) / Healthcare & energy well better but Industry disappointing… / Confirms outlook for 2009 / Got off to a ' good start'in fiscal 2009 / “More difficult quarters lie ahead of us” (CEO) REPSOL : Petrobras confirmed a natural gas find of "great importance" in an offshore well in the Santos basin / Repsol owns a 37% stake in the consortium, with Petrobras controlling the remainder LONZA : 2008 sales SFR 2.94bn (2.87 bn exp) / Cash dividend €1.75 / Sees EBIT gwth in the mid to high teens on average until 2013 SOFTWARE AG : FY rev. 720.6m (708m e) / Operating 180.5m (174m e) thx to its mket entry in Brazil + integration of webMethods unit DEUTSCHE BOERSE said the company' s 2008 earnings look great / However, 2009 will be challenging and it will be difficult to reach the earnings level of 2008 (CEO) / He added : "The consolidation of stock exchanges is set to continue" BNP : “Return of Dutch banking business to Fortis not realistic” (Expert panel cited by Reuters) / “BNP is a solid partner”… SWEDISH BANKS : The Swedish government is set to present in the coming weeks a programme under which state capital could be injected into the country' s banking sector (Newspaper) AMERICAN EXPRESS : Q4 revenue $6.51bn ($7.22bn exp) / EPS $0.21 ($0.22 exp) / Remains cautious about the economic outlook through 2009. Cardmember spending is expected to remain soft with past-due loans and write-offs rising from current levels AMGEN : Q4 rev. 3.75bn (3.79bn e) / EPS $1.06, in line / Sees FY09 revenue 14.8-15.2bn (15.4bn e) with FY EPS $4.55-4.75 (4.67 e)
! HYPO REAL ESTATE : Germany’s coalition govt wants a majority stake in HRX (Handelsblatt) KPN : Q4 rev. €3.64bn (3.72bn e) / Ebitda €1.28, in line / Final div. €0.40 (0.41 e) / Sees 2009 FCF of around €2.4 bn / Confirms 2010 CLARIANT : FY sales SFR8.1bn (8.3bn exp) / Operating and cash flow in line with guidance / `No dividend / Will cut 1,000 jobs FERROVIAL : Hochtief has pulled out of the bidding for London' s Gatwick airport, leaving 5 suitors to enter a 2nd round TF1 and M6 have failed to capitalize on the elimination of advertising on public broadcaster France Television (Le Monde) TEXAS INSTRUMENT : Q4 sales $2.49bn (2.37bn exp) / EPS $0.08, incl. restructuring charge of $0.13 (0.12 exp) / Sees Q1 2009 sales $1.62 - $2.12 bn (2.10bn exp) and Q1 EPS between -$0.11 and +$0.03 (+0.04 exp) / Not counting on a near-term economic rebound FANNIE MAE said it will need to tap $16bn in emergency funds from the US Treasury as deterioration in the housing market persists NOMURA : Q3 net loss £3.8bn (-2.3bn e) hit by the cost of buying LEH's ops ($2bn) + trading losses / Will forgo paying a div for Q4
! CREDIT AGRICOLE RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD BY CITIGROUP SOCGEN RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD BY CITIGROUP SWEDBANK RESUMED UNDERPERFORM BY MERRILL LYNCH VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD BY SOCGEN HERMES RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL BY UBS CATERPILAR RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL BY UBS BIOGEN RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL AND ADDED TO CONVICTION BUY LIST BY GS BRITISH LAND CUT TO SELL FROM NEUTRAL AND ADDED TO CONVICTION SELL LIST BY GS
Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company
23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 www.global-equities.com
-6-
"4% /0+25% 671 % +08.1 (&% 1 % &'./&9+ : 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 29/01/2007
= % ?.)- - ./&9
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29/07/2007
29/01/2008
29/07/2008
29/01/2009
29/01/2007
29/07/2007
29/01/2008
29/07/2008
Source : Bloomberg
Source : Bloomberg
5,5 5,25 5 4,75 4,5 4,25 4 3,75 3,5 3,25 3 2,75 2,5 2,25 2 29/01/2007
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29/07/2007
29/01/2008
29/07/2008
Source : Bloomberg
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29/01/2009
Source : Bloomberg
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29/01/2009
1,2 29/07/2007
29/01/2008
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29/01/2009
29/01/2007
29/07/2007
29/01/2008
Source : Bloomberg
Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company
23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 www.global-equities.com
29/07/2008
29/01/2009
Source : Bloomberg
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