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Estimation of global pandemic influenza mortality on the basis of vital registry data from the 1918–20 pandemic: a quantitative analysis Mean number of deaths East Asia Brunei Cambodia China Cook Islands Fiji Kiribati
12 926 570
Median number of deaths (10th–90th percentile range)
2004 population
11 348 696 (6 662 538–20 264 212)
1 539 787 000
687 250 645 10 605 101
547 (241–1375) 214 813 (103 507–442 867) 8 996 794 (4 399 952–17 859 326)
89 3770 1282
366 000 13 798 000 1 315 409 000
74 (38–159)
18 000
3203 (1501–6873)
841 000
1067 (508–2252)
97 000
Laos
77 621
64 840 (30 869–135 108)
5 792 000
Malaysia
73 220
61 994 (28 099–131 831)
24 894 000
Marshall Islands
479
410 (202–838)
60 000
Micronesia
738
631 (293–1292)
110 000
Mongolia
32 136
27 923 (13 450–55 720)
Nauru
30
24 (11–54)
Niue
13
11 (5–23)
Palau
56
46 (20–103)
Papua New Guinea Philippines
51 056 625 444
43 521 (21 108–92 209) 534 256 (257 651–1 089 602)
2 614 000 13 000 1000 20 000 5 772 000 81 617 000
Samoa
1420
1231 (591–2452)
Singapore
5074
3980 (1522–10 056)
4 273 000
184 000
Solomon Islands
3888
3316 (1608–6713)
466 000
Tonga
658
561 (263–1155)
102 000
Tuvalu
186
162 (77–335)
10 000
1663
1442 (716–2916)
207 000
Vanuatu Vietnam Latin America and the Caribbean Antigua and Barbuda Argentina
1 191 316
1 027 135 (506 579–1 985 188)
83 123 000
2 490 895
2 391 218 (1 882 507–3 255 512)
442 571 000
258
213 (97–463)
120 112
96 826 (46 188–210 753)
81 000 38 372 000
Bahamas
576
439 (182–1062)
319 000
Barbados
752
606 (280–1344)
269 000
Belize
1665
1401 (703–2815)
264 000
Bolivia
82 383
72 577 (35 575–147 063)
Brazil
807 980
698 028 (319 843–1 461 797)
Chile
51 219
41 762 (18 981–95 250)
16 124 000
235 171
199 987 (94 931–433 516)
44 915 000
Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominica
21 374 163 960 58 795
Ecuador El Salvador Grenada Guatemala Guyana Haiti
9 009 000 183 913 000
18 759 (8945–36 192)
4 253 000
142 087 (67 903–292 221)
11 245 000
457
Dominican Republic
373 (189–818)
79 000
51 251 (23 922–101 142)
8 768 000
89 350
76 916 (37 199–153 154)
13 040 000
56 254
48 932 (23 363–97 009)
6 762 000
620
515 (245–1114)
97 639
81 512 (39 856–176 084)
7880
6826 (3232–13 740)
102 000 12 295 000 750 000
158 582
137 968 (63 141–280 804)
8 407 000
Honduras
88 327
73 143 (34 747–155 482)
7 048 000
Jamaica
20 082
17 316 (8491–34 510)
2 639 000
Nicaragua
71 253
Panama
15 885
60 666 (29 228–122 696) 13 178 (6148–28 332)
Correspondence to: Prof Christopher J L Murray, Harvard Initiative for Global Health, Harvard University, 104 Mt Auburn Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA christopher_murray@harvard. edu
5 376 000 3 175 000 (Continues on next page)
www.thelancet.com Published online December 23/30, 2006 Webtable
1
Articles
(Continued from previous page) Paraguay Peru
44 751
38 858 (18 700–77 915)
6 017 000
174 391
147 349 (71 480–312 300)
27 562 000
Saint Kitts and Nevis
153
127 (60–274)
Saint Lucia
853
715 (355–1546)
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay
938
804 (378–1657)
118 000
3533
3005 (1481–6220)
446 000
4816
4091 (1919–8617)
1 301 000
12 078
9897 (4706–22 811)
3 439 000
Venezuela
98 807
Middle East
6 065 429
Afghanistan
42 000 159 000
692 470
84 031 (38 713–173 078)
26 282 000
5 835 025 (4 388 107–7 940 427)
534 197 000
580 539 (258 423–1 262 820)
28 574 000
Bahrain
2142
1775 (797–3868)
716 000
Cyprus
1920
1547 (706–3541)
826 000
Djibouti
11 996
9815 (4680–21 749)
779 000
Egypt
607 523
522 027 (253 014–1 103 690)
72 642 000
Iran
425 474
364 306 (180 699–743 360)
68 803 000
Iraq
282 727
239 788 (113 248–499 665)
28 057 000
Israel
13 356
11 000 (4571–24 719)
Jordan
46 115
39 582 (18 783–82 219)
5 561 000
Kuwait
5745
4630 (1881–10 863)
2 606 000
Lebanon
19 046
16 134 (7704–33 837)
3 540 000
Libya
26 763
22 303 (11 005–48 489)
5 740 000
278 720
236 933 (117 285–490 068)
31 020 000
Morocco Oman Pakistan Qatar Saudi Arabia
9814 1 881 780 1710 87 139
8352 (3561–16 807) 1 619 212 (762 053–3 213 478) 1396 (595–3375) 72 206 (31 435–159 103)
6 601 000
2 534 000 154 794 000 777 000 23 950 000
Somalia
264 596
223 031 (105 361–470 135)
Sudan
727 275
603 258 (300 911–1 236 646)
35 523 000
Syria
119 098
104 673 (50 246–205 295)
18 582 000
61 515
51 970 (26 304–105 200)
9 995 000
Tunisia United Arab Emirates Yemen Eastern Europe and Central Asia
8670 489 836 2 507 311
Albania
38 703
Andorra
133
Armenia
35 767
Azerbaijan
7 964 000
6974 (2804–16 371)
4 284 000
406 620 (197 102–884 254)
20 329 000
2 435 944 (1 863 056–3 255 659) 32 450 (15 324–67 609) 108 (46–246)
341 528 000 3 112 000 67 000
30 916 (14 420–62 081)
3 026 000 8 355 000
108 568
93 425 (47 233–187 668)
Belarus
55 390
47 010 (22 459–98 483)
9 811 000
Bosnia and Herzegovina
44 207
38 311 (19 007–80 395)
3 909 000
Bulgaria
47 095
41 085 (20 315–83 947)
7 780 000
Croatia
22 394
18 631 (9138–40 253)
4 540 000
Estonia
6140
Georgia
48 460
5041 (2466–11 349)
1 335 000
40 580 (20 085–84 457)
4 518 000
Kazakhstan
103 537
91 352 (42 402–178 913)
14 839 000
Kyrgyzstan
69 410
58 686 (29 893–122 138)
5 204 000
Latvia
13 783
11 332 (5451–25 075)
2 318 000
Lithuania
18 784
16 090 (7995–32 658)
3 443 000
891 (398–2035)
400 000
Malta
1092
Monaco
53
42 (18–102)
Moldova
56 084
48 311 (24 096–95 819)
Romania
149 855
125 932 (61 937–261 152)
35 000 4 218 000 21 790 000 (Continues on next page)
2
www.thelancet.com Published online December 23/30, 2006 Webtable
Articles
(Continued from previous page) Russia San Marino Slovenia
741 691
632 841 (302 700–1 288 132)
52
41 (16–97)
4986
4117 (1860–9426) 92 530 (44 383–188 651)
143 899 000 28 000 1 967 000
Tajikistan
108 704
Macedonia
20 064
17 797 (8232–34 788)
6 430 000 2 030 000
Turkmenistan
51 842
43 483 (21 661–91 130)
4 766 000
Ukraine
446 144
385 237 (180 534–757 708)
46 989 000
Uzbekistan
227 265
196 343 (97 041–390 356)
26 209 000
Yugoslavia
87 110
74 428 (36 936–150 643)
OECD
2 409 564
2 351 535 (1 805 461–3 072 218)
10 510 000 1 164 821 000
Australia
28 419
21 996 (8760–52 947)
Austria
13 029
10 178 (4048–25 443)
8 171 000
Belgium
14 876
11 573 (5166–28 414)
10 400 000
Canada
54 470
41 686 (17 847–102 804)
31 958 000
Czech Republic
34 112
27 579 (12 793–64 585)
10 229 000 5 414 000
Denmark
7323
5547 (2278–14 318)
Finland
8105
6462 (2401–16 113)
France Germany
19 942 000
5 235 000
89 645
70 215 (29 248–166 402)
60 257 000
116 396
92 729 (37 534–222 210)
82 645 000
Greece
27 414
22 351 (9857–50 618)
11 098 000
Hungary
37 662
32 048 (14 322–68 377)
10 124 000
Iceland
421
Ireland
6663
325 (130–840) 5206 (2140–12 844)
292 000 4 080 000
Italy
95 174
77 165 (30 278–182 033)
58 033 000
Japan
152 530
120 877 (43 789–308 715)
127 923 000
Luxembourg Mexico
521 422 558
390 (149–1026) 352 397 (168 710–770 421)
459 000 105 699 000
Netherlands
23 104
18 462 (7163–46 514)
16 226 000
New Zealand
6321
5077 (2173–11 240)
3 989 000
Norway
5776
4424 (1667–11 404)
4 598 000
127 797 (57 962–282 379)
38 559 000
Poland Portugal South Korea
155 151 25 125 101 700
20 333 (8528–47 034)
10 441 000
84 456 (38 080–185 354)
47 645 000
Slovakia
20 587
17 706 (7630–36 719
Spain
87 122
69 683 (30 650–161 734)
Sweden
13 260
10 267 (4132–25 269)
9309
7201 (2783–18 610)
Switzerland Turkey
375 905
317 754 (143 624–689 077)
5 401 000 42 646 000 9 008 000 7 240 000 72 220 000
UK
93 004
71 781 (28 080–181 421)
59 479 000
USA
383 881
297 883 (114 483–744 226)
295 410 000
South Asia Bangladesh Bhutan North Korea India Indonesia Maldives Burma
20 143 199 2 107 719
17 356 790 (11 021 325–32 317 132) 1 786 560 (873 494–3 704 316)
1 632 096 000 139 215 000
37 082
31 195 (14 989–64 872)
2 116 000
336 870
294 237 (135 357–572 897)
22 384 000
14 814 546 1 488 867
12 235 206 (5 983 008–26 939 656) 1 265 188 (607 771–2 662 276)
2455 398 609
2066 (1048–4354)
1 087 124 000 220 077 000 321 000
328 426 (156 107–714 579)
50 004 000 26 591 000
Nepal
507 679
425 377 (198 691–921 757)
Sri Lanka
189 188
160 567 (79 506–326 016)
20 570 000
Thailand
260 184
217 241 (99 636–472 597)
63 694 000 (Continues on next page)
www.thelancet.com Published online December 23/30, 2006 Webtable
3
Articles
(Continued from previous page) Sub-Saharan Africa
17 865 920
17 243 647 (13 995 484–22 723 677)
721 955 000
Algeria
225 275
194 269 (91 731–409 878)
32 358 000
Angola
301 705
250 615 (123 957–545 334)
15 490 000
Benin
152 646
128 483 (62 734–279 649)
8 177 000
10 406
8968 (4374–18 249)
1 769 000
Botswana Burkina Faso
359 267
299 943 (138 040–638 481)
Burundi
262 127
214 043 (96 436–480 271)
7 282 000
Cameroon
239 344
204 550 (99 020–423 073)
16 038 000
Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad
6053
5206 (2603–10 757) 71 986 (35 393–151 510)
3 986 000
283 539
235 444 (109 795–514 205)
9 448 000
18 401
15 829 (7530–32 088)
Republic of Congo
51 392
44 234 (21 190–89 980)
Democratic Republic of the Congo Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia
495 000
85 489
Comoros Côte d’Ivoire
12 822 000
777 000 3 883 000
250 918
213 119 (103 760–441 162)
17 872 000
2 213 975
1 789 108 (779 465–4 121 476)
55 853 000
5273 134 866 3 388 506 6252 30 981
4548 (2233–9299) 114 653 (50 563–247 357) 2 763 749 (1 259 189–5 953 963)
492 000 4 232 000 75 600 000
5265 (2499–11 175)
1 362 000
26 318 (12 269–54 053)
1 478 000
Ghana
376 013
318 247 (153 121–682 193)
21 664 000
Guinea
161 467
139 953 (64 244–290 426)
9 202 000
42 670
36 185 (16 429–75 086)
Guinea-Bissau Kenya
646 683
547 871 (273 514–1 132 973)
1 540 000 33 467 000
Lesotho
25 475
21 611 (10 933–44 665)
Liberia
75 002
61 534 (30 921–134 365)
1 798 000 3 241 000
Madagascar
524 862
439 887 (208 579–950 088)
18 113 000
Malawi
371 886
303 718 (137 605–682 276)
12 608 000
Mali
393 363
331 174 (161 188–695 873)
13 124 000
Mauritania
57 453
47 407 (24 182–102 695)
2 980 000
Mauritius
4756
Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Sao Tome and Principe Senegal Seychelles
561 068 13 796
4025 (1870–8197) 478 332 (224 457–1 024 848) 11 573 (5922–24 576) 354 098 (162 046–775 762)
13 499 000
2 851 059
2 345 389 (1 135 347–5 038 748)
128 709 000
272 490 3460 180 955 318
227 497 (104 528–513 231) 2962 (1397–6171) 155 395 (74 168–312 049) 268 (119–572)
199 682
161 144 (71 380–363 388)
South Africa
248 381
217 291 (102 344–430 594)
Togo
2 009 000
418 160
Sierra Leone Swaziland
1 233 000 19 424 000
8271 118 952
8 882 000 153 000 11 386 000 80 000 5 336 000 47 208 000
7168 (3409–14 325)
1 034 000
103 554 (49 935–203 935)
5 988 000
Uganda
644 465
543 562 (265 678–1 167 716)
27 821 000
Tanzania
1 214 409
1 005 766 (464 256–2 154 038)
37 627 000
Zambia
262 807
222 741 (104 215–469 365)
11 479 000
Zimbabwe
161 600
140 158 (69 745–274 113)
12 936 000
Total
64 408 888
62 118 132 (51 254 648–80 549 636)
6 376 955 000
OECD=Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Webtable: Estimated number of deaths caused by the emergence of a pandemic influenza strain in 2004
4
www.thelancet.com Published online December 23/30, 2006 Webtable
Estimation of global pandemic influenza mortality on the basis of vital registry data from the 1918–20 pandemic: a quantitative analysis Mean number of deaths East Asia Brunei Cambodia China Cook Islands Fiji Kiribati
12 926 570
Median number of deaths (10th–90th percentile range)
2004 population
11 348 696 (6 662 538–20 264 212)
1 539 787 000
687 250 645 10 605 101
547 (241–1375) 214 813 (103 507–442 867) 8 996 794 (4 399 952–17 859 326)
89 3770 1282
366 000 13 798 000 1 315 409 000
74 (38–159)
18 000
3203 (1501–6873)
841 000
1067 (508–2252)
97 000
Laos
77 621
64 840 (30 869–135 108)
5 792 000
Malaysia
73 220
61 994 (28 099–131 831)
24 894 000
Marshall Islands
479
410 (202–838)
60 000
Micronesia
738
631 (293–1292)
110 000
Mongolia
32 136
27 923 (13 450–55 720)
Nauru
30
24 (11–54)
Niue
13
11 (5–23)
Palau
56
46 (20–103)
Papua New Guinea Philippines
51 056 625 444
43 521 (21 108–92 209) 534 256 (257 651–1 089 602)
2 614 000 13 000 1000 20 000 5 772 000 81 617 000
Samoa
1420
1231 (591–2452)
Singapore
5074
3980 (1522–10 056)
4 273 000
184 000
Solomon Islands
3888
3316 (1608–6713)
466 000
Tonga
658
561 (263–1155)
102 000
Tuvalu
186
162 (77–335)
10 000
1663
1442 (716–2916)
207 000
Vanuatu Vietnam Latin America and the Caribbean Antigua and Barbuda Argentina
1 191 316
1 027 135 (506 579–1 985 188)
83 123 000
2 490 895
2 391 218 (1 882 507–3 255 512)
442 571 000
258
213 (97–463)
120 112
96 826 (46 188–210 753)
81 000 38 372 000
Bahamas
576
439 (182–1062)
319 000
Barbados
752
606 (280–1344)
269 000
Belize
1665
1401 (703–2815)
264 000
Bolivia
82 383
72 577 (35 575–147 063)
Brazil
807 980
698 028 (319 843–1 461 797)
Chile
51 219
41 762 (18 981–95 250)
16 124 000
235 171
199 987 (94 931–433 516)
44 915 000
Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominica
21 374 163 960 58 795
Ecuador El Salvador Grenada Guatemala Guyana Haiti
9 009 000 183 913 000
18 759 (8945–36 192)
4 253 000
142 087 (67 903–292 221)
11 245 000
457
Dominican Republic
373 (189–818)
79 000
51 251 (23 922–101 142)
8 768 000
89 350
76 916 (37 199–153 154)
13 040 000
56 254
48 932 (23 363–97 009)
6 762 000
620
515 (245–1114)
97 639
81 512 (39 856–176 084)
7880
6826 (3232–13 740)
102 000 12 295 000 750 000
158 582
137 968 (63 141–280 804)
8 407 000
Honduras
88 327
73 143 (34 747–155 482)
7 048 000
Jamaica
20 082
17 316 (8491–34 510)
2 639 000
Nicaragua
71 253
Panama
15 885
60 666 (29 228–122 696) 13 178 (6148–28 332)
Correspondence to: Prof Christopher J L Murray, Harvard Initiative for Global Health, Harvard University, 104 Mt Auburn Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA christopher_murray@harvard. edu
5 376 000 3 175 000 (Continues on next page)
www.thelancet.com Published online December 23/30, 2006 Webtable
1
Articles
(Continued from previous page) Paraguay Peru
44 751
38 858 (18 700–77 915)
6 017 000
174 391
147 349 (71 480–312 300)
27 562 000
Saint Kitts and Nevis
153
127 (60–274)
Saint Lucia
853
715 (355–1546)
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay
938
804 (378–1657)
118 000
3533
3005 (1481–6220)
446 000
4816
4091 (1919–8617)
1 301 000
12 078
9897 (4706–22 811)
3 439 000
Venezuela
98 807
Middle East
6 065 429
Afghanistan
42 000 159 000
692 470
84 031 (38 713–173 078)
26 282 000
5 835 025 (4 388 107–7 940 427)
534 197 000
580 539 (258 423–1 262 820)
28 574 000
Bahrain
2142
1775 (797–3868)
716 000
Cyprus
1920
1547 (706–3541)
826 000
Djibouti
11 996
9815 (4680–21 749)
779 000
Egypt
607 523
522 027 (253 014–1 103 690)
72 642 000
Iran
425 474
364 306 (180 699–743 360)
68 803 000
Iraq
282 727
239 788 (113 248–499 665)
28 057 000
Israel
13 356
11 000 (4571–24 719)
Jordan
46 115
39 582 (18 783–82 219)
5 561 000
Kuwait
5745
4630 (1881–10 863)
2 606 000
Lebanon
19 046
16 134 (7704–33 837)
3 540 000
Libya
26 763
22 303 (11 005–48 489)
5 740 000
278 720
236 933 (117 285–490 068)
31 020 000
Morocco Oman Pakistan Qatar Saudi Arabia
9814 1 881 780 1710 87 139
8352 (3561–16 807) 1 619 212 (762 053–3 213 478) 1396 (595–3375) 72 206 (31 435–159 103)
6 601 000
2 534 000 154 794 000 777 000 23 950 000
Somalia
264 596
223 031 (105 361–470 135)
Sudan
727 275
603 258 (300 911–1 236 646)
35 523 000
Syria
119 098
104 673 (50 246–205 295)
18 582 000
61 515
51 970 (26 304–105 200)
9 995 000
Tunisia United Arab Emirates Yemen Eastern Europe and Central Asia
8670 489 836 2 507 311
Albania
38 703
Andorra
133
Armenia
35 767
Azerbaijan
7 964 000
6974 (2804–16 371)
4 284 000
406 620 (197 102–884 254)
20 329 000
2 435 944 (1 863 056–3 255 659) 32 450 (15 324–67 609) 108 (46–246)
341 528 000 3 112 000 67 000
30 916 (14 420–62 081)
3 026 000 8 355 000
108 568
93 425 (47 233–187 668)
Belarus
55 390
47 010 (22 459–98 483)
9 811 000
Bosnia and Herzegovina
44 207
38 311 (19 007–80 395)
3 909 000
Bulgaria
47 095
41 085 (20 315–83 947)
7 780 000
Croatia
22 394
18 631 (9138–40 253)
4 540 000
Estonia
6140
Georgia
48 460
5041 (2466–11 349)
1 335 000
40 580 (20 085–84 457)
4 518 000
Kazakhstan
103 537
91 352 (42 402–178 913)
14 839 000
Kyrgyzstan
69 410
58 686 (29 893–122 138)
5 204 000
Latvia
13 783
11 332 (5451–25 075)
2 318 000
Lithuania
18 784
16 090 (7995–32 658)
3 443 000
891 (398–2035)
400 000
Malta
1092
Monaco
53
42 (18–102)
Moldova
56 084
48 311 (24 096–95 819)
Romania
149 855
125 932 (61 937–261 152)
35 000 4 218 000 21 790 000 (Continues on next page)
2
www.thelancet.com Published online December 23/30, 2006 Webtable
Articles
(Continued from previous page) Russia San Marino Slovenia
741 691
632 841 (302 700–1 288 132)
52
41 (16–97)
4986
4117 (1860–9426) 92 530 (44 383–188 651)
143 899 000 28 000 1 967 000
Tajikistan
108 704
Macedonia
20 064
17 797 (8232–34 788)
6 430 000 2 030 000
Turkmenistan
51 842
43 483 (21 661–91 130)
4 766 000
Ukraine
446 144
385 237 (180 534–757 708)
46 989 000
Uzbekistan
227 265
196 343 (97 041–390 356)
26 209 000
Yugoslavia
87 110
74 428 (36 936–150 643)
OECD
2 409 564
2 351 535 (1 805 461–3 072 218)
10 510 000 1 164 821 000
Australia
28 419
21 996 (8760–52 947)
Austria
13 029
10 178 (4048–25 443)
8 171 000
Belgium
14 876
11 573 (5166–28 414)
10 400 000
Canada
54 470
41 686 (17 847–102 804)
31 958 000
Czech Republic
34 112
27 579 (12 793–64 585)
10 229 000 5 414 000
Denmark
7323
5547 (2278–14 318)
Finland
8105
6462 (2401–16 113)
France Germany
19 942 000
5 235 000
89 645
70 215 (29 248–166 402)
60 257 000
116 396
92 729 (37 534–222 210)
82 645 000
Greece
27 414
22 351 (9857–50 618)
11 098 000
Hungary
37 662
32 048 (14 322–68 377)
10 124 000
Iceland
421
Ireland
6663
325 (130–840) 5206 (2140–12 844)
292 000 4 080 000
Italy
95 174
77 165 (30 278–182 033)
58 033 000
Japan
152 530
120 877 (43 789–308 715)
127 923 000
Luxembourg Mexico
521 422 558
390 (149–1026) 352 397 (168 710–770 421)
459 000 105 699 000
Netherlands
23 104
18 462 (7163–46 514)
16 226 000
New Zealand
6321
5077 (2173–11 240)
3 989 000
Norway
5776
4424 (1667–11 404)
4 598 000
127 797 (57 962–282 379)
38 559 000
Poland Portugal South Korea
155 151 25 125 101 700
20 333 (8528–47 034)
10 441 000
84 456 (38 080–185 354)
47 645 000
Slovakia
20 587
17 706 (7630–36 719
Spain
87 122
69 683 (30 650–161 734)
Sweden
13 260
10 267 (4132–25 269)
9309
7201 (2783–18 610)
Switzerland Turkey
375 905
317 754 (143 624–689 077)
5 401 000 42 646 000 9 008 000 7 240 000 72 220 000
UK
93 004
71 781 (28 080–181 421)
59 479 000
USA
383 881
297 883 (114 483–744 226)
295 410 000
South Asia Bangladesh Bhutan North Korea India Indonesia Maldives Burma
20 143 199 2 107 719
17 356 790 (11 021 325–32 317 132) 1 786 560 (873 494–3 704 316)
1 632 096 000 139 215 000
37 082
31 195 (14 989–64 872)
2 116 000
336 870
294 237 (135 357–572 897)
22 384 000
14 814 546 1 488 867
12 235 206 (5 983 008–26 939 656) 1 265 188 (607 771–2 662 276)
2455 398 609
2066 (1048–4354)
1 087 124 000 220 077 000 321 000
328 426 (156 107–714 579)
50 004 000 26 591 000
Nepal
507 679
425 377 (198 691–921 757)
Sri Lanka
189 188
160 567 (79 506–326 016)
20 570 000
Thailand
260 184
217 241 (99 636–472 597)
63 694 000 (Continues on next page)
www.thelancet.com Published online December 23/30, 2006 Webtable
3
Articles
(Continued from previous page) Sub-Saharan Africa
17 865 920
17 243 647 (13 995 484–22 723 677)
721 955 000
Algeria
225 275
194 269 (91 731–409 878)
32 358 000
Angola
301 705
250 615 (123 957–545 334)
15 490 000
Benin
152 646
128 483 (62 734–279 649)
8 177 000
10 406
8968 (4374–18 249)
1 769 000
Botswana Burkina Faso
359 267
299 943 (138 040–638 481)
Burundi
262 127
214 043 (96 436–480 271)
7 282 000
Cameroon
239 344
204 550 (99 020–423 073)
16 038 000
Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad
6053
5206 (2603–10 757) 71 986 (35 393–151 510)
3 986 000
283 539
235 444 (109 795–514 205)
9 448 000
18 401
15 829 (7530–32 088)
Republic of Congo
51 392
44 234 (21 190–89 980)
Democratic Republic of the Congo Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia
495 000
85 489
Comoros Côte d’Ivoire
12 822 000
777 000 3 883 000
250 918
213 119 (103 760–441 162)
17 872 000
2 213 975
1 789 108 (779 465–4 121 476)
55 853 000
5273 134 866 3 388 506 6252 30 981
4548 (2233–9299) 114 653 (50 563–247 357) 2 763 749 (1 259 189–5 953 963)
492 000 4 232 000 75 600 000
5265 (2499–11 175)
1 362 000
26 318 (12 269–54 053)
1 478 000
Ghana
376 013
318 247 (153 121–682 193)
21 664 000
Guinea
161 467
139 953 (64 244–290 426)
9 202 000
42 670
36 185 (16 429–75 086)
Guinea-Bissau Kenya
646 683
547 871 (273 514–1 132 973)
1 540 000 33 467 000
Lesotho
25 475
21 611 (10 933–44 665)
Liberia
75 002
61 534 (30 921–134 365)
1 798 000 3 241 000
Madagascar
524 862
439 887 (208 579–950 088)
18 113 000
Malawi
371 886
303 718 (137 605–682 276)
12 608 000
Mali
393 363
331 174 (161 188–695 873)
13 124 000
Mauritania
57 453
47 407 (24 182–102 695)
2 980 000
Mauritius
4756
Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Sao Tome and Principe Senegal Seychelles
561 068 13 796
4025 (1870–8197) 478 332 (224 457–1 024 848) 11 573 (5922–24 576) 354 098 (162 046–775 762)
13 499 000
2 851 059
2 345 389 (1 135 347–5 038 748)
128 709 000
272 490 3460 180 955 318
227 497 (104 528–513 231) 2962 (1397–6171) 155 395 (74 168–312 049) 268 (119–572)
199 682
161 144 (71 380–363 388)
South Africa
248 381
217 291 (102 344–430 594)
Togo
2 009 000
418 160
Sierra Leone Swaziland
1 233 000 19 424 000
8271 118 952
8 882 000 153 000 11 386 000 80 000 5 336 000 47 208 000
7168 (3409–14 325)
1 034 000
103 554 (49 935–203 935)
5 988 000
Uganda
644 465
543 562 (265 678–1 167 716)
27 821 000
Tanzania
1 214 409
1 005 766 (464 256–2 154 038)
37 627 000
Zambia
262 807
222 741 (104 215–469 365)
11 479 000
Zimbabwe
161 600
140 158 (69 745–274 113)
12 936 000
Total
64 408 888
62 118 132 (51 254 648–80 549 636)
6 376 955 000
OECD=Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Webtable: Estimated number of deaths caused by the emergence of a pandemic influenza strain in 2004
4
www.thelancet.com Published online December 23/30, 2006 Webtable
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