Mike Tonkavitch, Ohio
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Managing Ohio’s Whitetailed Deer
Michael J. Tonkovich, Ph.D. Deer Biologist Athens 740-589-9922 [email protected]
Topics for Discussion
White-tailed Deer Timeline
Overview of Ohio Deer Management Process – Goal Setting, Seasons, Permits, Hunters, Harvest
Management Challenges and Strategies
Deer program timeline
Deer were absent
Deer were found in 28 eastern and southeastern counties
1st modern season – 12 days, buck-only (“4-inch horn”)
1904-19 1937
1943
Deer program timeline
1st either-sex season to address crop damage in NE Ohio
1947
1956-64
Statewide either-sex season to provide “sustained hunting recreation” Mandatory registration
1962 1963
Deer Management Policy – W17
Deer Management Policy W17, 1963 “to provide maximum sustained hunting recreation within the context of minimizing conflicts between deer populations and agriculture, forestry, motorists, and the general citizenry who prize the presence and sight of deer”
Topics for Discussion
White-tailed Deer Timeline
Overview of Ohio Deer Management Process – Goal Setting, Seasons, Permits, Hunters, Harvest
Deriving a Deer Population Goal or Target Farmer attitude surveys Public open houses Miscellaneous surveys Other
County Population Goal or Target
Hunters, Harvest, Permits, and Herd Demographics OHIO HUNTERS
MICHIGAN
380,000
724,239
0.6 MILLION
1.5 MILLION
232,000
477,000
0.7 MILLION
1.8 MILLION
% ANTLERLESS
63%
44%
% YEARLING BUCKS
50%
63%
DEER PERMITS HARVEST DEER POPULATION
Ohio’s Deer Seasons Season Archery
Dates 27 Sep - 1 Feb
Gun Regular Bonus
1 Dec - 7 Dec 20 Dec - 21 Dec
Youth (17 and under)
22 Nov - 23 Nov
Muzzleloader
27 Dec - 30 Dec
Deer Management Zones and Permits
Deer Zone
Bag Limit
Zone A Zone B Zone C
1 deer 2 deer 3 deer
Valid Permits $24 either-sex, $15 antlerless-only $24 either-sex, $15 antlerless-only $24 either-sex, $15 antlerless-only
Topics for Discussion
Timeline
Overview of Ohio Deer Management Process – Goal Setting, Seasons, Permits, Hunters, Harvest
Management Challenges and Strategies
Minimum Statewide Deer Population, 1990-2006
700,000
Challenges… With room to grow!
Licensed Ohio Hunters, 1925-2006
Licensed Deer Hunters, 2000-2007
Licensed Hunters who Deer Hunt, 1978-2007
Annual Ohio Deer Hunter Participation Rate 551,000 Hunters that Purchased at Least 1 Deer Permit 2001-2007
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Annual “Churn” or Turnover Among Deer Hunters
Nationally, 37% of This Year’s Hunters will NOT Hunt Next Year! 25% of Ohio and Michigan Hunters will NOT Hunt Next Year! “A Year Out is a Way Out” How Can We Reduce Annual Turnover? – –
Targeted Marketing? Hunter Surveys?
Reducing Annual Churn with Targeted Marketing
The Strategic Plan for the Ohio Division of Wildlife, 2001-2010, lists 9 strategic issues including: – Recruitment & Retention of Anglers, Hunters & Trappers Retention & Recruitment Program strategies to increase participation in hunting include: – Fully utilize information from our Point of Sale license system… – Employ both proven & newly developed
Reducing Annual Churn with Targeted Marketing – Identify hunters likely to lapse in the coming season (modeling approach) – 2004 - Test effectiveness of a fullcolor promotional brochure on deer hunting & a small incentive offer for increasing license purchase rates among targeted hunters – 2005 - Test effectiveness of multitouch mailings (postcards) for increasing license purchase rates among targeted hunters – 2006 - Test effectiveness of “Large Incentive” for increasing license purchase rates among targeted hunters
Modeling License-buying Behavior by Ohio Hunters
Ohio Hunters Likely to Lapse – Buy hunting license late in the year / close to deer gun season – Buy few, if any, additional permits or only a single deer permit – Have limited harvest success during deer season – Have low social support (few other hunters in their household or neighborhood)
Available Resources – Point-of-Sale license & permit purchase records (includes purchase date) in a central data warehouse since 1999
Model Parameters included: – 4-year deer permit buying records – 4-year hunting license buying records – Timing of deer permit purchases
2004 – Ohio Hunting Guide
Promotional Brochure – Emphasized deer hunting opportunities (all seasons) – TIME – Included maps of public hunting areas & “Getting Permission to Hunt on Private Lands” – ACCESS – Offered “Tips for Success” & “Other Hunting Opportunities” – VALUE
2005 – Multi-touch Mailings
Timing & Key Messages – Mid-October: emphasized early deer hunting opportunities - TIME – Early November: highlighted other hunting opportunities – VALUE – Late November: trophy deer & last minute reminder linked to Ohio State-Michigan rivalry – QUALITY
2006 – Large Incentive
SUMMARY of FINDINGS
Electronic Licensing Sales systems can be “mined” to model license-buying behavior & predict which hunters are likely to lapse
Hunting Information & Reminders showed limited results in terms of increasing license purchases among sporadic & occasional hunters – Both lacked “urgency” or significant “call for action”
Strategies that most effectively address “why people hunt less” may be more successful (i.e., identify & overcome the barriers to participation) – Why do 25% of Hunters “Churn” each Year?
NEXT STEPS?
Develop cooperative research projects with Human Dimensions researchers at Ohio State University – Use focus groups from past efforts to understand what worked, what didn’t & how to better communicate or “sell” our message
Concentrate on Avid Hunter Groups – “Up-sell” and “Cross-sell” products to good customers
Annual “Churn” or Turnover Among Deer Hunters
Nationally, 37% of This Year’s Hunters will NOT Hunt Next Year! 25% of Ohio and Michigan Hunters will NOT Hunt Next Year! “A Year Out is a Way Out” How Can We Reduce Annual Turnover? – –
Targeted Marketing? Hunter Surveys?
2005 DEER HUNTER SURVEY
“MORE WEEK-END DAYS TO HUNT WITH A FIREARM – 46%
Ohio’s Deer Seasons Season Archery
Dates 27 Sep - 1 Feb
Gun Regular Bonus
1 Dec - 7 Dec 20 Dec - 21 Dec
Youth (17 and under)
22 Nov - 23 Nov
Muzzleloader
27 Dec - 30 Dec
2005 DEER HUNTER SURVEY
“LICENSE FEES TOO HIGH – 32%
Reduced ($15 vs. $24) Price Antlerless Permit -2007
Strategy – Double Antlerless Bag Limits 1st 8 weeks of Archery – Permit Archers to use Antlerless Permit Statewide 1st 8 weeks of Archery
Expectations – Increase TOTAL antlerless harvest, not
Evaluation of the $15 Antlerless Permit
84,000 antlerless permits to 68,000 hunters
Total permit sales up 8%! – A slightly higher than average (18%) number of hunters (20%) bought more (rather than the same or fewer) permits – Many that bought more, bought significantly more!
Evaluation of the $15 Antlerless Permit Proportion of Hunters Buying 1, 2, and 3 or more Deer Permits, 2007 vs. 5-year Average
Evaluation of the $15 Antlerless Permit Mean Number of Deer Permits Purchased per Hunter, 2001-2007
Evaluation of the $15 Antlerless Permit Percent of Hunters Buying More in 2007
Number of Deer Permits in 2006
Evaluation of the $15 Antlerless Permit Percent of Hunters Buying 1, 2, 3 or more Permits in 2006
Percent of Hunters by Permit Group Buying MORE Permits in 2007
Greatest Response from the Smallest Group of Hunters and Lowest Response from The Largest Group of Hunters
Annual Deer Hunting Participation Rate 551,000 Hunters that Purchased at Least 1 Deer Permit 2001-2007
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Evaluation of the $15 Antlerless Permit Change in Antlered and Antlerless Harvest in 2007, 1st 8 weeks only
38%!
1%
Daily Composition of Hunter Harvested Deer, Archery Opener to Gun Season Opener, 2007 vs. 2006 2006
Antlered
2007
Antlerless % Antlerless Deer in Harvest Starts Higher Shift to Antlered Delayed by 1 Week
Even During the Rut, % Antlered Deer Never Reaches 2006 Levels! Harvest shifts to back to antlerless deer 7-10 days ahead of EXPIRATION DATE!
Can We Increase Antlerless Harvest by Limiting Opportunities?
Money Influenced the Purchase Decision, the Deadline Influenced the Harvest Decision!
Long Seasons May Lull Hunters Into Believing There is “Lots” of Time Left to Shoot my Doe!
Deferring Harvest Often Leads to Missed Opportunities!
Additional Seasons May Simply Redistribute Hunter Harvest or Perhaps Reduce It By Diluting “Hunter Effort”
Thank You!
Michael J. Tonkovich, Ph.D. Deer Biologist Athens [email protected] 740-589-9922
Michael J. Tonkovich, Ph.D. Deer Biologist Athens 740-589-9922 [email protected]
Topics for Discussion
White-tailed Deer Timeline
Overview of Ohio Deer Management Process – Goal Setting, Seasons, Permits, Hunters, Harvest
Management Challenges and Strategies
Deer program timeline
Deer were absent
Deer were found in 28 eastern and southeastern counties
1st modern season – 12 days, buck-only (“4-inch horn”)
1904-19 1937
1943
Deer program timeline
1st either-sex season to address crop damage in NE Ohio
1947
1956-64
Statewide either-sex season to provide “sustained hunting recreation” Mandatory registration
1962 1963
Deer Management Policy – W17
Deer Management Policy W17, 1963 “to provide maximum sustained hunting recreation within the context of minimizing conflicts between deer populations and agriculture, forestry, motorists, and the general citizenry who prize the presence and sight of deer”
Topics for Discussion
White-tailed Deer Timeline
Overview of Ohio Deer Management Process – Goal Setting, Seasons, Permits, Hunters, Harvest
Deriving a Deer Population Goal or Target Farmer attitude surveys Public open houses Miscellaneous surveys Other
County Population Goal or Target
Hunters, Harvest, Permits, and Herd Demographics OHIO HUNTERS
MICHIGAN
380,000
724,239
0.6 MILLION
1.5 MILLION
232,000
477,000
0.7 MILLION
1.8 MILLION
% ANTLERLESS
63%
44%
% YEARLING BUCKS
50%
63%
DEER PERMITS HARVEST DEER POPULATION
Ohio’s Deer Seasons Season Archery
Dates 27 Sep - 1 Feb
Gun Regular Bonus
1 Dec - 7 Dec 20 Dec - 21 Dec
Youth (17 and under)
22 Nov - 23 Nov
Muzzleloader
27 Dec - 30 Dec
Deer Management Zones and Permits
Deer Zone
Bag Limit
Zone A Zone B Zone C
1 deer 2 deer 3 deer
Valid Permits $24 either-sex, $15 antlerless-only $24 either-sex, $15 antlerless-only $24 either-sex, $15 antlerless-only
Topics for Discussion
Timeline
Overview of Ohio Deer Management Process – Goal Setting, Seasons, Permits, Hunters, Harvest
Management Challenges and Strategies
Minimum Statewide Deer Population, 1990-2006
700,000
Challenges… With room to grow!
Licensed Ohio Hunters, 1925-2006
Licensed Deer Hunters, 2000-2007
Licensed Hunters who Deer Hunt, 1978-2007
Annual Ohio Deer Hunter Participation Rate 551,000 Hunters that Purchased at Least 1 Deer Permit 2001-2007
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Annual “Churn” or Turnover Among Deer Hunters
Nationally, 37% of This Year’s Hunters will NOT Hunt Next Year! 25% of Ohio and Michigan Hunters will NOT Hunt Next Year! “A Year Out is a Way Out” How Can We Reduce Annual Turnover? – –
Targeted Marketing? Hunter Surveys?
Reducing Annual Churn with Targeted Marketing
The Strategic Plan for the Ohio Division of Wildlife, 2001-2010, lists 9 strategic issues including: – Recruitment & Retention of Anglers, Hunters & Trappers Retention & Recruitment Program strategies to increase participation in hunting include: – Fully utilize information from our Point of Sale license system… – Employ both proven & newly developed
Reducing Annual Churn with Targeted Marketing – Identify hunters likely to lapse in the coming season (modeling approach) – 2004 - Test effectiveness of a fullcolor promotional brochure on deer hunting & a small incentive offer for increasing license purchase rates among targeted hunters – 2005 - Test effectiveness of multitouch mailings (postcards) for increasing license purchase rates among targeted hunters – 2006 - Test effectiveness of “Large Incentive” for increasing license purchase rates among targeted hunters
Modeling License-buying Behavior by Ohio Hunters
Ohio Hunters Likely to Lapse – Buy hunting license late in the year / close to deer gun season – Buy few, if any, additional permits or only a single deer permit – Have limited harvest success during deer season – Have low social support (few other hunters in their household or neighborhood)
Available Resources – Point-of-Sale license & permit purchase records (includes purchase date) in a central data warehouse since 1999
Model Parameters included: – 4-year deer permit buying records – 4-year hunting license buying records – Timing of deer permit purchases
2004 – Ohio Hunting Guide
Promotional Brochure – Emphasized deer hunting opportunities (all seasons) – TIME – Included maps of public hunting areas & “Getting Permission to Hunt on Private Lands” – ACCESS – Offered “Tips for Success” & “Other Hunting Opportunities” – VALUE
2005 – Multi-touch Mailings
Timing & Key Messages – Mid-October: emphasized early deer hunting opportunities - TIME – Early November: highlighted other hunting opportunities – VALUE – Late November: trophy deer & last minute reminder linked to Ohio State-Michigan rivalry – QUALITY
2006 – Large Incentive
SUMMARY of FINDINGS
Electronic Licensing Sales systems can be “mined” to model license-buying behavior & predict which hunters are likely to lapse
Hunting Information & Reminders showed limited results in terms of increasing license purchases among sporadic & occasional hunters – Both lacked “urgency” or significant “call for action”
Strategies that most effectively address “why people hunt less” may be more successful (i.e., identify & overcome the barriers to participation) – Why do 25% of Hunters “Churn” each Year?
NEXT STEPS?
Develop cooperative research projects with Human Dimensions researchers at Ohio State University – Use focus groups from past efforts to understand what worked, what didn’t & how to better communicate or “sell” our message
Concentrate on Avid Hunter Groups – “Up-sell” and “Cross-sell” products to good customers
Annual “Churn” or Turnover Among Deer Hunters
Nationally, 37% of This Year’s Hunters will NOT Hunt Next Year! 25% of Ohio and Michigan Hunters will NOT Hunt Next Year! “A Year Out is a Way Out” How Can We Reduce Annual Turnover? – –
Targeted Marketing? Hunter Surveys?
2005 DEER HUNTER SURVEY
“MORE WEEK-END DAYS TO HUNT WITH A FIREARM – 46%
Ohio’s Deer Seasons Season Archery
Dates 27 Sep - 1 Feb
Gun Regular Bonus
1 Dec - 7 Dec 20 Dec - 21 Dec
Youth (17 and under)
22 Nov - 23 Nov
Muzzleloader
27 Dec - 30 Dec
2005 DEER HUNTER SURVEY
“LICENSE FEES TOO HIGH – 32%
Reduced ($15 vs. $24) Price Antlerless Permit -2007
Strategy – Double Antlerless Bag Limits 1st 8 weeks of Archery – Permit Archers to use Antlerless Permit Statewide 1st 8 weeks of Archery
Expectations – Increase TOTAL antlerless harvest, not
Evaluation of the $15 Antlerless Permit
84,000 antlerless permits to 68,000 hunters
Total permit sales up 8%! – A slightly higher than average (18%) number of hunters (20%) bought more (rather than the same or fewer) permits – Many that bought more, bought significantly more!
Evaluation of the $15 Antlerless Permit Proportion of Hunters Buying 1, 2, and 3 or more Deer Permits, 2007 vs. 5-year Average
Evaluation of the $15 Antlerless Permit Mean Number of Deer Permits Purchased per Hunter, 2001-2007
Evaluation of the $15 Antlerless Permit Percent of Hunters Buying More in 2007
Number of Deer Permits in 2006
Evaluation of the $15 Antlerless Permit Percent of Hunters Buying 1, 2, 3 or more Permits in 2006
Percent of Hunters by Permit Group Buying MORE Permits in 2007
Greatest Response from the Smallest Group of Hunters and Lowest Response from The Largest Group of Hunters
Annual Deer Hunting Participation Rate 551,000 Hunters that Purchased at Least 1 Deer Permit 2001-2007
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Evaluation of the $15 Antlerless Permit Change in Antlered and Antlerless Harvest in 2007, 1st 8 weeks only
38%!
1%
Daily Composition of Hunter Harvested Deer, Archery Opener to Gun Season Opener, 2007 vs. 2006 2006
Antlered
2007
Antlerless % Antlerless Deer in Harvest Starts Higher Shift to Antlered Delayed by 1 Week
Even During the Rut, % Antlered Deer Never Reaches 2006 Levels! Harvest shifts to back to antlerless deer 7-10 days ahead of EXPIRATION DATE!
Can We Increase Antlerless Harvest by Limiting Opportunities?
Money Influenced the Purchase Decision, the Deadline Influenced the Harvest Decision!
Long Seasons May Lull Hunters Into Believing There is “Lots” of Time Left to Shoot my Doe!
Deferring Harvest Often Leads to Missed Opportunities!
Additional Seasons May Simply Redistribute Hunter Harvest or Perhaps Reduce It By Diluting “Hunter Effort”
Thank You!
Michael J. Tonkovich, Ph.D. Deer Biologist Athens [email protected] 740-589-9922
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