Medical & Pharmaceutical Trends Impacting The Chemicals And Materials Industry - Feb09

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Know Your End-Market! Medical & Pharmaceutical Trends Impacting the Chemicals and Materials Industry

A panel discussion with Frost & Sullivan's leading Chemicals & Materials analysts: Hariharan Ramasubramanian, Dr Leonidas Dokos 27 February 2009

Focus Points • • • •

Introduction Impact of Economic downturn Key Medical & Pharmaceutical Trends Materials for Medical Devices • •



Chemical Excipients • •

• •

Product Segmentation Challenges, Drivers and Growth Product Segmentation Challenges, Drivers and Growth

Major Industry Participants Conclusion

2

Introduction

3

The Integrated Industry Perspective – Healthcare represents a crucial downstream end-user

Plastics and Polymers

Coatings, Adhesives and Sealants

Aerospace & Defense

Aerospace & Defense

Automotive & Transportation

Automotive & Transportation

Automotive & Transportation

Automotive & Transportation

Automotive & Transportation

Electronics

Environment

Electronics

Electronics

Electronics

Healthcare

Healthcare

Environment

Healthcare

Healthcare

Food

Construction

Energy

Construction

Construction

Packaging

Performance Materials

Specialty Chemicals

Healthcare Source: Source: FrostFrost & Sullivan & Sullivan

4

The Medical and Pharmaceutical end-use markets for Materials and Chemicals Healthcare Medical & Pharmaceutical

Materials in Healthcare

Materials in Medical Devices

Chemicals Excipients for Pharmaceutical Drugs

Materials in Medical Packaging

5

Economic Downturn Impact on Medical and Pharmaceutical Markets

6

Impact on Sectors of the Economy Market Indices as an Indicator for Industry Prospects •

The effects of the downturn has disproportionately affected different segments of the economy



The healthcare sector has outperformed the broader market US Market Indices 16,000

Indices value (units)

14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Dec-07



Feb-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dow Jones Industrial Average

NasDaq Biotech

NasDaq Financials

NASDAQ Transportation

S&P HEALTHCARE INDEX

PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR INDEX

Healthcare Indices, while declining, have still outperformed the broader market

This implies that investors expect that, while the healthcare sector will be affected by the downturn, it will still out-perform the general economy 7

Winners and Losers… High

Elite

Winners Big Pharma

Financial Leverage

Big imaging companies Big device companies Big IVD

Losers Discretionary product manufacturers

Opportunists Small device companies Generic manufacturers Home care companies

Low High

Business risks in economic downturn

Low

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Elite: Companies which have high cash reserves, but unable to do much to improve their business because of the unfavorable situation Winners: Companies which have high cash reserves and are able to leverage this situation successfully through strategies like M&A / alliances. Opportunists: Companies which have the best opportunity to grow during the economic downturn Losers: Companies likely to loose their revenues due to economic downturn

8

What is the way forward …? • • •



Medical devices becomes a more attractive segment for plastics suppliers facing declines in their other key end user segments. The prospects for higher margins and a stable demand acts as a major incentive for companies to invest. However, a focussed - rather than piecemeal – approach to the market will be important for companies looking for long term growth in this segment. Plastics in Medical devices to grow at a CAGR of 5.4% in the period 2009-2015. Companies such as Invibio (Victrex) and LyondellBasell that have built up a separate brand image and identity for their medical products are well placed to grow in this segment

9

What is the way forward …? (contd) • • •





As the era of blockbuster drugs continues to approach its end, the smaller and specialist companies are better placed for survival. The pharmaceutical industry is more apprehensive about the upcoming expirations of patented drugs than the global economic contraction. The expiration of patents means that manufacturers of excipients need to be prepared to do business with a larger number of companies in a wider geographical spread and at a more cost-driven supply basis. Strategic partnerships and alliances will become more crucial than ever. Even amidst the current challenging economic climate the market for pharmaceutical excipients will perform better than other chemicals markets with a forecast CAGR between 2009-2015 of 3.3%.

“In over 23 years in the industry, I've never really seen pharma sales being affected by an economic downturn in the western world. We're probably one of the industries that will be affected the last and the least." – CEO of one of world’s top 30 pharma companies.

10

Key Medical & Pharmaceutical Drivers and Trends “Doctor, I feel a pain in…”

11

Pharmaceutical trends with Respect to Chemicals & Materials – what lies ahead… • •



In 2000, 10% (606 million) of the global population was aged 60+. By 2050 this will be more than 21% (2 billion). The aging of population and the need for more medical devices and sophisticated drugs will create undisputedly more demand for materials, active ingredients and chemical excipients. There is increasing competition from low-cost manufacturers. These are located in Asia, especially in India and China, and are continuously enlarging their capacity while improving at the same time the quality, credibility and reliability.

Source: Frost & Sullivan

12

Pharmaceutical trends with Respect to Chemicals & Materials – what lies ahead… (contd) • •





Global mortality from chronic diseases will increase 50% by 2025. Cardiovascular diseases will remain the main global mortality chronic disease by 2025 with cancer and respiratory diseases increasingly affecting more people. 75% of people aged 60+ have one chronic condition, while 50% have two or more chronic conditions. Chronic diseases account for more than 60% of all health care spending.

Source: Frost & Sullivan

13

Performance Material Trends in the Medical Devices and Pharma Packaging Markets

14

Market Segmentation Plastics in Medical Devices

Plastics in Medical Devices

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

PVC

• Syringes

• Syringe Plungers

• Catheters

• Labware

• Labware

• Medical Bags

• Medical Bags

• Medical Bags

• Administration Sets

• Administration Sets

Eng Plastics • Surgical Equipment • Sterilisation Trays • Medical Device Housings • Implants

15

Key Themes in the Performance Materials Industry Trends of Specific Importance to the Medical Device Industry

Performance Materials Market: Impact of Key Industry Themes, Performance Materials Market: Impact of Key Industry Themes, 2009 2009 10 10

Market Impact Market Impact

Security Security

Safety Safety

Performance Performance

Lifestyle trends Lifestyle trends 5

Key selling points for engineering and high performance plastics

Conservation of Conservation of resources resources

Differentiation Differentiation

5

Multiple Multiple functionalities functionalities Sustainable Sustainable production production Expansion Expansion

0

0 0

0

5

5

Internal Impact Internal Impact

Key

Technical and Service Differentiation

PVC Replacement

Supply chain 1010 Supply chain Source: Frost & Sullivan Source: Frost & Sullivan

Trends with High Impact on the Medical Devices Market

16

Key Themes in the Performance Materials Industry (Contd…) Changing Lifestyle Trends 2005

Patient Driven

Secondary Care

• 2010

Changes in the Changes in for the demand demand for healthcare healthcare diagnostics diagnostics



Primary Care

Home Care/ Self Testing

2015

• • •

Available personalised healthcare and choice Patient knowledge through multiple channels Public pressure on government One stop shop Consumer responsive providers, products and services

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Implications for Material Selection Demand Volume • • •

Affordability Waiting Lists Public Anxiety



Development of demand management policies and strategies e.g. demand driven financing

• • • •

Unique design principles required High robustness required off the device Aesthetics also assume higher importance Opportunities are created therefore for engineering plastics in these applications

17

European Markets for Plastics in Medical Devices Strong Growth Prospects Revenues forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% in the period 2008-15

Plastics in Medical Devices: Volume and Revenue Forecasts (Europe), 2005-2015 350.0

800.0

300.0

700.0

500.0

kt

200.0

400.0 150.0

300.0

100.0

€ Million

600.0

250.0

200.0

50.0

100.0

0.0

0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Frost & Sullivan

18

Plastics in Medical Devices Market: For Plastics Suppliers Developing Relationships with Key End User Groups is Crucial to Success

Polymer Suppliers

Compounding

Tier 1 Component Producers

Pharma Companies

Note: company names are intended as examples only and do not represent real relationships

Direct supply is the most preferred route

LyondellBasell

RTP Compounding

Gerresheimer Wilden

Boehringer Ingelheim

High influence on material selection and often specify materials to be used

Source: Frost & Sullivan

19

Plastics in Medical Packaging: The Pharmaceutical Blisters Market Excerpt Key Market Segments The Pharmaceutical Blisters Market Example –

Containers Vials & Ampoules Blister Packs Sachets & Strips Container Tubes Pre-fillable Syringes

Strong Drivers for Growth

Restraints

Source: MediSeal

The pharmaceutical blisters market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.6% in the period 2008-14

Key Growth Drivers

• • • • • •

Growth in AntiIncreasing Counterfeiting Regulations for Efforts Increasing Compliance Barrier Requirements

2008

Blister Market Growth

Cost Efficiency of High Volume Containers

Increasing Efforts in Drug Compliance

Increase in Calendared Smart Packaging

Growth in Combination Drugs

Drivers

2014 and beyond

Source: Frost & Sullivan

20

Frost & Sullivan Studies in the Area Plastics in Medical Devices

Medical Packaging

• European Markets for Plastics in Medical Devices – M348 - Feb, 09

• European Markets for Pharma Packaging – M137 – Apr, 09

• U.S. Markets for Plastics in Medical Devices – N540 – Apr, 09

• Materials for Medical Packaging – TI – D0E9 – Dec, 07

• U.S. Polymers in Medical Tubings and Catheters – N498 – Jan, 09 • Western European Medical Silicones Markets – M04A – Nov, 06

End Market Studies of Interest – Medical Devices IRG

• US Infusion Pumps Market – N3A5 - Feb, 09 • European Insulin Delivery Devices Market – M2CD – Oct, 08 • Others……..

21

Chemical Excipients for the Pharmaceutical Industry Product Segmentation

22

Pharmaceutical trends with Respect to Chemicals – the expected shift • •







New opportunities in the global pharmaceutical market will appear as the business and market models are evolving. Liposomal technologies have the potential to increase the effectiveness of compounds especially in the anti-cancer, neurological and anti-fungal drug areas. By 2015 opportunities will be more prominent in niche drugs and research and development. By 2020 integrated packages of products and services will focus on patient monitoring & compliance. Integration of pharma, diagnostics, medical devices, patient monitoring and healthcare IT.

Pre 2005 Blockbuster Model 2015 Opportunities in the Global Pharma Market

Niche Drugs and R&D 2020 Integration & Supply Chain

Source: Frost & Sullivan

23

Introduction to Chemical Excipients for Pharmaceuticals • •

Excipients are inactive ingredients used to formulate active ingredients into finished dosage forms. Excipients are used to: • provide a matrix in which the drug can be handled • control rate of dosage • aid in the processing of the drug delivery system during its manufacture • protect, support or enhance stability, bioavailability or patient acceptability • assist in product identification • enhance any other attribute of the overall safety, effectiveness or delivery of the drug during storage or use • improve comfort when taking drug such ease of swallowing and better taste

24

Chemical Excipients - Main Product Types

Flavourants & Colourants Glidants &

Disintegrants

Lubricants

Preservatives &

Coatings

Antioxidants

Binders & Fillers

Excipients

Sweeteners

25

Major Challenges •

• •



The global adoption of Current Good Manufacturing Practices (cGMPs) is the major challenge for this industry representing the required total commitment of a company to a set of regulations, codes, and guidelines for the highest possible quality in manufacture of drugs, medical devices, diagnostic products, food products and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs). Asian companies are trying to incorporate cGMPs with various degrees of success. Since 2004, several blockbuster drugs have lost patent protection and this trend is expected to become more prominent up to 2011. Source: Colorcon The active promotion of generics as a highquality low-expense alternative is expected to widen the market base for these products.

Source: Innercap Technologies

26

Major Drivers • •







The fastest growing region is Asia, due to its growing economy, and continued improvement in the health care system. The changing attitude of pharmaceutical industry towards excipients considering them more than just inactive ingredients but crucial in improving the performance of the end-product (medicinal drug). The outsourcing of services in the pharmaceutical industry is growing. The reasons include the declining investments in research and development (R&D), increasing generic penetration, and the growing development costs. Modern contract manufacturing organisations (CMOs) offer a wide range of services ranging from pre-clinical development to commercial batch manufacturing to active/non-active manufacturing, as well as packaging and distribution. Smooth delivery of a consistent dosage over time is the objective, with the need for fewer administrations, optimal use of the delivered drug, and increased patient compliance with the treatment programme. 27

The global pharmaceutical excipients market will perform better than other chemicals markets •

The downturn in growth is expected to last throughout 2009 and 2010 affecting at a different degree different regions.



The market is expected to return to previous level of activities and growth from 2011. Even amidst the current challenging economic climate the market for pharmaceutical excipients will perform better than other chemicals markets. The CAGR of the period 2009-2015 will be 3.3%.





Source: Frost & Sullivan

28

Technologically advanced excipients and environmentally friendly products will grow faster than commoditised excipients • • • •



The Global Pharmaceutical Excipients market is valued at $2.28 billion and was divided among the following excipients market segments as shown below. The market for pharmaceutical excipients will perform better than other chemicals markets. Binders represent the largest market segment, albeit mostly including commoditised products. Disintegrants are expected to exhibit a CAGR of 4.6% during the period 2009-2015. The market for controlledrelease pharmaceuticals is growing rapidly with companies increasingly turning to drug delivery technologies as a means of expanding product lifecycles, enhancing drug efficacy and maximizing revenues. Source: Frost & Sullivan

29

Major Industry Participants Pharmaceutical Excipients - Materials for Medical Applications

30

Conclusion

• •

The healthcare sector (medical & pharmaceutical) continues to provide opportunities for innovative companies, even in the current economic scenario Companies willing to enter/strengthen their position in the market will however have to invest in developing the R&D capabilities, and also strong business development and technical service teams to cater to this segment •



In the pharmaceuticals segment, industry participants need to forge business relationships with generics manufacturers and align accordingly their distribution networks.

Individual markets researched by Frost & Sullivan recently including the plastics in medical devices and packaging and the global pharmaceutical excipients are all showing excellent potential for market participants

31

Next Steps 

Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news)



Register for the next Chairman’s Series on Growth: (www.frost.com/growthEU)



Join us at our 3rd Annual Customer Contact Executive MindXchange (June 2009, Europe)



Join us in London on 19 – 20 May at Growth, Innovation and Leadership 2009: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth Event (www.frost.com/giluk)



Request a proposal for a Growth Partnership Service to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company.

32

Your Feedback is Important to Us What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan? Growth Forecasts? Competitive Structure? Emerging Trends? Strategic Recommendations? Other? Please inform us by taking our survey. 33

For Additional Information

Steve Lee Strategic Account Manager Chemicals, Materials and Food, Asia Pacific (65) 6890 0914 [email protected]

Medical & Pharmaceutical Trends Impacting the Chemicals and Materials Industry

34

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