Gold Mining Industry
Cindy Chen Julia Lee Weiwei Sun Patrick Tan Johanne Lee
Gold Mining Industry Overall Introduction Structure of Industry Financial Structure Risk Assessment Regulatory Environment (FASB)
Overall Introduction Major Product GOLD
Substitutes –Direct Substitutes –Indirect Substitutes •Blooming economic condition
Production Process (Tech.)
Exploration
Exploration Drilling
Open Pit Mining
Blasting
Underground Mining
Ore and Waste Haulage
Production Process (Tech.)
Heap leaching
Leaching
Milling
Stripping
Oxidization
Electro-winning
Production Process (Tech.)
Smelting
Gold Bullion
Reclamation
Refining
Structure of Industry Market Dynamics: – Gold price change
Recent Change in Gold Price Year 2000 – present
Structure of Industry (cont’d) •Major companies (selected by assets) – Barrick Gold Corp. – Newmont Mining – Kinross Gold Corp.
– – – – – – –
Meridian Gold Agnico-Eagle Mines Glamis Gold Goldcorp Inc. Cambior Inc. Ivanhoe Mines Placer Dome
Financial Structure Cost Structure – – – – – –
Exploration, research and development General operation costs Depreciation, depletion and amortization Interest expenses Write-down of assets Other
Financial Structure Revenue Composition – Mining revenue – Interest income revenue – Financial activities revenue (ie. Hedging)
Risk Assessment Nature of Mineral Exploration and Mining Environmental Risks Reserve Estimates Worldwide Operations Licenses and Permits
Risk Assessment (cont’d) Interest Rate Risk Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Commodity Price Risk Derivative Instrument Risk - Credit risk - Market liquidity risk - Mark-to-market risk
Energy Risk
Risk Management Strategies Use of derivatives on commodities – Hedging on Gold
Use of derivatives or other financial
instruments on non-commodity items – Not Hedging on Gold – On fuel, interest rate and foreign exchange rate
FASB 133 Requires companies to recognize all derivatives
instruments as assets or liabilities in the financial statements Measured at fair market value Classification of hedges: – – – –
Fair Value Hedge Cash Flow Hedge Currency Hedge Non hedging derivatives
BARRICK Gold Corporation
Corporate Profile Entered Gold Mining Business in 1983 Has operations in the United States, Peru,
Tanzania, Chile, Argentina, Australia and Canada Proven and probable mineral reserves of 86.9 million ounces of gold
Hedging Philosophy Creates stable, predictable returns regardless of
short-term market conditions. De-linking Barrick's earnings from the volatility
in the spot gold market. Creates additional cash reserves that can be used
to acquire new assets to accretive to earnings.
Hedge Position Barrick hedges approximately 18% of its
gold reserves. – 16.1 million ounces or 3 years of expected future production
Between 1991 and 2002, Barrick's forward
sales program allowed the company to generate additional revenue of $2.2 billion
Risk Exposures Gold and Silver Price Risk Interest Rate Risk Foreign Exchange Risk Derivative Risk • • •
Credit Risk Market Liquidity Risk Mark-to-Market Risk
Hedge Position Current hedge position Financial Statements Tour
Hedging Instruments Spot deferred forward Contracts (90%) Variable price Contracts Options
Spot Deferred Contract The spot deferred contract is a commitment by the
producer to deliver a fix amount of gold to the contract counterparty at a time in the future at a fixed price. The forward price of the contract is based on the spot price on the date of the contract plus a premium (contango). The contango is the difference between the LIBOR less the gold lease rate. The difference between a spot deferred contract and a simple forward contract is that the spot deferred contract can be rolled over into a new contract on delivery date.
Spot Deferred Contract: Features The counterparties do not have unilateral and
discretionary ‘right to break’ provisions. There are no credit downgrade provisions. Barrick is not subject to any margin calls – regardless of the price of gold. Barrick has the right to accelerate the delivery of gold at any time during the life of its contracts. This flexibility is demonstrated by the terms that allow Barrick to close out hedge contracts at any time on two days notice.
Spot Deferred Contract: Features Barrick’s trading agreement also specifies that the counter parties can opt for early close out of their contracts in the event of: a material and lasting impact on Barrick’s ability to deliver gold the counterparties being unable to borrow gold to facilitate the forward contracts Barrick having a net worth of less than $2 billion (currently 3.2 billion) Barrick having a debt to net worth ratio of more than 1.5-2.0:1 (currently 0.25:1)
How It Works Bullion Bank Central Bank Barrick
Barrick enters into the spot deferred contract with the Bullion Bank.
How It Works Bullion Bank Central Bank Barrick
Bullion Bank borrows gold from the Central Bank
How It Works Bullion Bank Central Bank Barrick
Spot Market Sells the gold in the spot market
How It Works Bullion Bank Central Bank
Barrick
1% lease rate Interest earned 4%
How It Works Bullion Bank Barrick
Central Bank
At the delivery date Barrick delivers the gold
How It Works Bullion Bank Barrick
Central Bank
Bullion Bank pays Barrick and returns the gold to the Central Bank
Problems Barrick faces huge opportunity losses should
gold prices increase If gold lease rate rises above the Libor rate then forward prices will be in backwardation If Barrick’s counterparties are not able to borrow gold to facilitate the contract Barrick can be forced to deliver gold at an unfavourable price
Newmont Mining Corporation Creating Value with Every Ounce…
Corporate Profile Incorporated in 1921 Other than gold, also engages in the
production of and exploration for silver, copper and zinc Has operations in North America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Uzbekistan and Turkey Owns 86.9 million equity ounces of gold
Creating Value with Every Ounce… Growing reserves Strengthening asset base Increasing earnings per share Paying higher dividends Improving financial strength
Gold Sales Gold sales are made at the average price
prevailing during the month, in which the gold is delivered to the customer, plus a "contango“ Revenue is recognized when the price is determinable upon delivery with title transferred to the customer
Hedging Philosophy A non-hedger Viewing gold as an equivalent to money Creating paper gold is considered too risky
Risk Exposures Commodity Price Risk Foreign Exchange Risk Interest Rate Risk
Commodity Price Risk Metal prices fluctuate – Due to demand, forward selling by producers, central bank sales, purchases and lending, investor sentiment, and global mine production levels
Forward sales contracts with fixed and
floating gold lease rates
Foreign Exchange Risk Subject to local currency exchange rates against
the US dollars
– A devaluation of local currency is neutral or beneficial, and vice versa
Currency swap contracts – To hedge the currency risk on repayment of US$denominated debt
Cross currency swap contracts – To receive A$ and pay US$ – Designated as hedges of A$-denominated
Interest Rate Risk Interest rate swap contracts Against the interest rate risk exposure from
bonds, notes, debentures, and other debts – A reduction in interest expense of $5.9 M in 2002
Hedge Position Currently working to eliminate the hedge
book inherited from the acquisition of Normandy – Hedging 80~95% of total reserves
About 10.3% of Newmont's proven and
probable reserves were subject to derivative contracts
Fair Values of Instruments Gold Commodity Contracts
Ounces (000)
Fair Value (000)
Gold Forward Sales Contracts
3,332
(209,717)
Gold Put Option Contracts
1,544
(22,603)
Gold Convertible Put Options
1,459
(125,486)
Gold Sold Convertible Put Options
240
(14,295)
Price-Capped Contracts
377
n/a
US$/Gold Swap Contracts
600
(87,200)
Fair Values of Instruments Other Sales Contracts, Commodity and Derivative Instruments Cross Currency Swap Contracts Currency Swap Contracts Interest Rate Swap contracts Fixed Rate Debt
Fair Value (000)
(8,500) (21,924) 13,800 1,075
Annual Report 2002
Financial Highlights In 2002: At an average realized gold price of $313 per ounce Sold 7.6 M ounces of gold Revenue of 2,745 million Net cash of 670.3 million
Financial Highlights Cash Flow Hedges – Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) of (54.6M) – Gain (Loss) on Derivative Instruments of (39.8M) Under Financial Statement
Interest Swaps – Interest, Net of Capitalized Interest is recorded as an expense of 129.6M
Foreign Currency Exchange Contracts – Dividend, Interest, Foreign Currency Exchange and Other Income of 39.8M
Kinross Gold Corporation “Timing is Everything”
Corporate Profile Formed in 1993 The 7th largest primary gold producer in the
world Highly leveraged to changes in the price of gold A strict non-hedger (approximately 3.5% of reserves hedged falling to zero by early 2005) Majority of production in North America Highest beta to bullion responses in a rising gold price environment
Operating Highlights 888,634 gold equivalent ounces Total cash cost US$201 per ounce Net Loss per share US$0.32 Cash flow provided from operating
activities US$0.53 per share
Risk Exposures Commodity Price Risks Foreign Currency Exchange Risk Interest Rate Risk No Speculative or Trading Purposes
Commodity Price Risks Financial instrument in use: Spot deferred contracts – 312,500 ounce @ $280
Fixed forward contracts – Unknown
Written call options – 150,000 ounces @ $326 – Recorded in the financial statements at each measurement date.
Foreign Exchange Risk Financial instrument in use: Foreign exchange forward contracts – Sell U.S. dollars and buy Canadian dollars – CDN $25.8 million at an average exchange rate of 1.5175 – Mature over a 12 month period
Interest Rate Risk Financial instrument in use: Interest rate swaps – There are no interest rate hedging transactions outstanding as at December 31, 2002. – Probably due to lax monetary policy
Energy Price Risk Financial instrument in use: Crude oil forward purchase contracts – As at December 31,2001 – Buy 28,500 barrels of crude oil forward at a price of $20.83 per barrel. – No hedging agreements in place
Fair Values of Instruments In 2002: $20.3 million recorded as loss on forward contract $0.8 million recorded as loss on foreign currency contracts
Financial loss Loss incurred from Interest and other
income – $65.6 million
Share in loss of investee companies – $12.9 million Mark-to-market loss on call options – $2.7 million (pg 88)
Comparison Risk Management Philosophy Barrick
Newmont Kinross
De-linking Barrick's earnings from the volatility in the spot gold market. non-hedging philosophy non-hedging philosophy
Recommendation: Barrick To maintain its current hedge book In-line with its hedging philosophy Not cave in to shareholder pressure
Recommendation: Newmont To keep reducing its hedge book to zero In-line with its non-hedging philosophy Not creating paper gold and thus
fluctuating gold prices
Recommendation: Kinross To remain as a non-hedging firm Since Kinross is small in size, relative to
others, one way to attract investor is to offer higher beta to bullion price
Empirical Studies on Hedging in Gold Mining Industry Investors value volatility when it comes to
gold mining stocks The more a firm hedges gold price risk the worse it is for their stock return Gold mining firms that aggressively hedge gold price are not maximizing shareholder value ~~Matthew Callahan, “To hedge or not to hedge…from the North American gold mining industry”
Conclusion Overall, a decreasing trend on hedging
position is observed
Any Questions?