Mass. Special Democratic Primary Poll

BOSTON GLOBE DECEMBER 2009 , MA SPECIAL DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY POLL NOVEMBER 2009

Prepared by: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Chad S. Novak

The Survey Center University of New Hampshire November 22, 2009

Contents Technical Report.......................................................................... 1 Questionnaire ............................................................................... 2 Data Tables ................................................................................ 14

The Boston Globe Poll #24 December 2009 Special Democratic Primary Conducted by the UNH Survey Center November 2009 Technical Report

Field Period: November 13 - 18, 2009 Hours: 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Median Completion Time: 11 minutes Sample Size:

537 randomly selected (RDD) Massachusetts likely Democratic primary voters

Sampling Error: Full sample +/- 4.4%. Sampling error for subgroups is larger. Response Rate (AAPOR #4): 21%

1

The Boston Globe Poll #24 December 2009 MA Democratic Primary Poll Conducted by the UNH Survey Center November 2009 * = DEFINED MISSING VALUE INTRO “This is the University of New Hampshire. My name is _____________________ and we’re conducting a short, confidential survey of voters in Massachusetts about the upcoming Democratic primary election for US Senate, and we'd really appreciate your help and cooperation. The survey will only take about 10 minutes.” 1

CONTINUE

2 3

NO DEMOCRATIC VOTERS – VOLUNTEERED WON’T VOTE IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY – VOLUNTEERED

99

REFUSED

INTRO2 “Are any of the voters who currently live in your household registered to vote as Democrats or Independents?” 1 2

YES
SKIP TO BIR1 NO
TERMINATE

98

DON’T KNOW / NOT SURE
SKIP TO INTRO3

99

REFUSED

INTRO3 “Could I please speak to the person who you think might be registered as a Democrat or an Independent?” 1 2

YES
SKIPTO INTRO4 NOT AVAILABLE
ASK FOR NAME AND MAKE APPOINTMENT

99

REFUSED

2

BIR1 “In order to determine who to interview, could you tell me, of the voters who are registered as Democrats or Independents who currently live in your household -- including yourself -- who had the most recent birthday? I don’t mean who is the youngest voter, but rather, who had the most recent birthday?” 1 2 3 4

INFORMANT
SKIP TO SEX SOMEONE ELSE (SPECIFY): ________________
SKIP TO INTRO4 DON'T KNOW ALL BIRTHDAYS, ONLY SOME
CONTINUE WITH BIR2 BELOW DON'T KNOW ANY BIRTHDAYS OTHER THAN OWN
SKIP TO SEX

99

REFUSED -- ENTER NON-RESPONSE INFORMATION

BIR2 “Of the ones that you do know, who had the most recent birthday?” 1 2 3 99

INFORMANT _____
SKIP TO SEX SOMEONE ELSE (SPECIFY): _______________________
SKIP TO INTRO4 PERSON NOT AVAILABLE REFUSED

INT2 ASK TO SPEAK TO THAT PERSON “Hello, this is _____________________ calling from the University of New Hampshire. We are we’re conducting a very short, confidential survey of voters in Massachusetts about the upcoming Democratic primary election for US Senate, and we'd really appreciate your help and cooperation. The survey will only take about 10 minutes. You have been identified as the registered voter in your household who had the most recent birthday. Is this correct?” 1 2

YES APPOINTMENT

99

REFUSAL

SEX “Thank you very much for helping us with this important survey. We really appreciate your help. Before we begin I want to assure you that all of your answers are strictly confidential. They will be combined with answers from other people from across the state. Your telephone number was randomly selected from all families in Massachusetts. This call may be monitored for quality assurance.” “Participation is voluntary. If you decide to participate, you may decline to answer any question or end the interview at any time.” IF ASKED: “This survey will take about ten minutes to complete.” RECORD SEX OF RESPONDENT 1 2 *

MALE FEMALE

99 NA

3

REGVOTE “Are you registered to vote as a Democrat, Independent, Republican or something else?”

*

1 2 3 4

REGISTERED DEMOCRAT
SKIP TO PR2008 REGISTERED INDEPENDENT / UNAFFILIATED
CONTINUE WITH DKGOVPR REGISTERED REPUBLICAN
TERMINATE REGISTERED – OTHER
TERMINATE

98 99

NOT REGISTERED / DK (DO NOT PROBE)
TERMINATE NA / REFUSED

DKSENPR “As you probably know, there is a special primary election for US Senator from Massachusetts to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat. Will you be more likely to vote in the Republican primary … the Democratic primary … or would you skip the special primary election?”

*

1 2

VOTE IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
TERMINATE VOTE IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY – SKIPTO PR2008

3 4

DK / NOT SURE-PROBE: "As of today, which primary are you most likely to vote in?"
TERMINATE WILL NOT VOTE IN SPECIAL PRIMARY
TERMINATE

99

NA / REFUSED

PR2008 “Thinking back, did you vote in the 2008 Democratic Presidential primary election in Massachusetts?” 1 2

YES NO

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

PR2006 “And did you vote in the 2006 Democratic primary election for candidates for Governor and other offices?” 1 2

YES NO

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

4

VOTEINT “As you know, there is a special Democratic primary election for the nominee for US Senator being held on December 8. How interested would you say you are in the special primary election US Senator ... extremely interested ... very interested ... somewhat interested ... or not very interested?”

*

1 2 3 4

EXTREMELY INTERESTED VERY INTERESTED SOMEWHAT INTERESTED NOT VERY INTERESTED

98 99

DK (DO NOT PROBE) NA

LIKEVOTE “Which of the following statements best describes you ... (READ NUMBERS 1 TO 5) I will probably NOT vote in the December special Democratic primary election,


1 TERMINATE 2 3 4 5

I MAY vote in the Democratic primary election,
TERMINATE Unless some emergency comes up, I WILL vote in the Democratic primary election, I will DEFINITELY vote in the Democratic primary election, or I just don't know at this time.”
TERMINATE

*

NA/REFUSED
TERMINATE

99

FAV “I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you know enough about him or her to say. First ... how about ... ROTATE FAV1 TO FAV4 FAV1 “Congressman Michael Capuano (cap-you-AH-no).” (READ IF NECESSARY) "Would you say you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him or don’t you know enough about him to say?"

*

1 2 3

FAVORABLE NEITHER FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE - VOLUNTEERED UNFAVORABLE

98 99

DK / NEVER HEARD OF / KNOW TOO LITTLE TO SAY NA / REFUSED

FAV2 “Attorney General Martha Coakley.” (READ IF NECESSARY) "Would you say you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her or don’t you know enough about her to say?" FAV3 “City Year Founder Alan Khazei (KAY-zee).” FAV4 “Businessman Steve Pagliuca (pal-ee-YOU-ka).”

5

PRIMFIRM “Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the special primary election for US Senator … are you leaning toward a candidate … or have you considered the candidates and still trying to make up your mind?” 1 2 3

DEFINITELY DECIDED LEANING TOWARD A CANDIDATE STILL TRYING TO DECIDE

98 99

DK (DO NOT PROBE) NA / REFUSED

DEMSEN “If the Democratic primary for US Senator from Massachusetts were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for ... Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?" (ROTATE CANDIDATES)

*

1 2 3 4 5

MICHAEL CAPUANO MARTHA COAKELY ALAN KHAZEI STEVE PAGLIUCA OTHER CANDIDATE – SPECIFY

97 98 99

WILL NOT VOTE
TERMINATE DK / NOT SURE
SKIP TO LEAN NA / REFUSED

LEAN “Which candidate would you say you are leaning toward at this time ... Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?"

*

1 2 3 4 5

MICHAEL CAPUANO MARTHA COAKELY ALAN KHAZEI STEVE PAGLIUCA OTHER CANDIDATE – SPECIFY

98 99

DK / NOT SURE
SKIP TO ISS1 NA / REFUSED

SECOND “Which candidate would be your second choice (READ LIST WITHOUT 1ST CHOICE) ... Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?"

*

1 2 3 4 5

MICHAEL CAPUANO MARTHA COAKELY ALAN KHAZEI STEVE PAGLIUCA OTHER CANDIDATE – SPECIFY

97 98 99

NO SECOND CHOICE - VOLUNTEERED DK / NOT SURE
SKIP TO ISS1 NA / REFUSED 6

MIPSEN “What do you think is the most IMPORTANT problem or issue in the race for Senator from Massachusetts?” PROBE: “Could you be more SPECIFIC or give me an example?” RECORD VERBATIM PROBE FOR SPECIFIC RESPONSE

ISS “Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if they were elected Senator. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which candidate do you think would do the best job handling … ROTATE ISS1 TO ISS3 ISS1 “Health care reform?” READ IF NECESSARY: “Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?"

*

1 2 3 4 5

MICHAEL CAPUANO MARTHA COAKELY ALAN KHAZEI STEVE PAGLIUCA ALL EQUAL

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

ISS2 “The war in Afghanistan?” ISS3 “Improving the US economy?”

PAC “How important is it that a candidate refuses to accept contributions from PACs and lobbyists in deciding who you will vote for … very important … somewhat important … or not important at all?”

*

1 2 3

VERY IMPORTANT SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT NOT IMPORTANT AT ALL

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

7

KENNEDY1 “How important is it that a candidate shares the values of Ted Kennedy in deciding who you will vote for … very important … somewhat important … or not important at all?”

*

1 2 3

VERY IMPORTANT SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT NOT IMPORTANT AT ALL

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

HC1 “As you may know, Congress is debating a major health care reform bill that could end up restricting federal funding for abortions. Which of the following best represents your position on this issue ... the bill should be passed even with limits on abortion funding ... the bill should be passed only if the limits are removed ... or the bill should not be passed either way.”

*

1 2 3

PASS HEALTH CARE BILL WITH ABORTION LIMITS DO NOT PASS UNLESS ABORTION LIMITS ARE REMOVED SHOULD NOT PASS EITHER WAY

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

CAND “Now, I’d like you to think about the kinds of experience that different candidates might have and how that may impact your vote.” ROTATE CAND1 TO CAND4 CAND1 “If a candidate has extensive experience in Congress, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would that make little difference in your vote?”

*

1 2 3

MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR NO DIFFERENCE IN VOTE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

CAND2 “If a candidate is a political outsider with extensive experience in non profit organizations, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would that make little difference in your vote?”

*

1 2 3

MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR NO DIFFERENCE IN VOTE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED 8

CAND3 “If a candidate has extensive experience as a prosecutor, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would that make little difference in your vote?”

*

1 2 3

MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR NO DIFFERENCE IN VOTE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

CAND4 “If a candidate has extensive business experience, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would that make little difference in your vote?”

*

1 2 3

MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR NO DIFFERENCE IN VOTE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

CAND5 “Which candidate do you think best understands the problems of people like yourself … Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?" ROTATE CANDIDATE NAMES

*

1 2 3 4 5

MICHAEL CAPUANO MARTHA COAKELY ALAN KHAZEI STEVE PAGLIUCA ALL EQUAL

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

CAND6 “Which candidate do you think is the most qualified candidate … Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?" ROTATE CANDIDATE NAMES

*

1 2 3 4 5

MICHAEL CAPUANO MARTHA COAKELY ALAN KHAZEI STEVE PAGLIUCA ALL EQUAL

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

9

CAND7 “Which candidate would you most like to have a beer with … Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?" ROTATE CANDIDATE NAMES

*

1 2 3 4 5

MICHAEL CAPUANO MARTHA COAKELY ALAN KHAZEI STEVE PAGLIUCA ALL EQUAL

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

WIN “Which candidate do you think will win the Democratic nomination for US Senate … Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?" ROTATE CANDIDATE NAMES

*

1 2 3 4 5

MICHAEL CAPUANO MARTHA COAKELY ALAN KHAZEI STEVE PAGLIUCA ALL EQUAL

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

EXPER "Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who has had government experience from holding an elected office ... would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who is a newcomer to politics and who could bring other kinds of experience to the job ... or would that make little difference in your vote?"

*

1 2 3

PREFER CANDIDATE WITH POLITICAL EXPERIENCE PREFER NEWCOMER TO POLITICS MAKES LITTLE DIFFERENCE

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

WOMAN1 “All things being equal, would you prefer to vote for a man or a woman for US Senator, or would that make little difference in your vote?”

*

1 2 3

WANT TO VOTE FOR A MAN WANT TO VOTE FOR A WOMAN MAKES NO DIFFERENCE

98 99

DK / NOT SURE NA / REFUSED

10

TOWN “Now, a few final questions . . .” “What town do you live?” ENTER NUMBER OF TOWN FROM SHEET.

*

997 998 999

OTHER
SPECIFY _____________________________ DK - DO NOT PROBE NA / REFUSED

D1 “What is the highest grade in school, or level of education that you’ve completed and got credit for ...” [READ RESPONSES]

*

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

“Eighth grade or less, Some high school, High school graduate, (INCLUDES G.E.D.) Technical school, Some college, College graduate, Or postgraduate work?”

8 9

DK (DO NOT PROBE) NA / REFUSED

D2 “We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. What about yourself -- that is, in politics, do you generally think of yourself as a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative?” (PROBE: “In general . . .”) (IF LIBERAL): “Would you say you are EXTREMELY liberal, FAIRLY liberal, or just SOMEWHAT liberal?” (IF CONSERVATIVE): “Would you say you are EXTREMELY conservative, FAIRLY conservative, or just SOMEWHAT conservative?” (IF MODERATE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD): “Would you say that you LEAN a little more toward the LIBERAL side or the CONSERVATIVE side?”

* * *

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

EXTREMELY LIBERAL FAIRLY LIBERAL SOMEWHAT LIBERAL MODERATE--LEANS LIBERAL MODERATE--LEANS NEITHER MODERATE--LEANS CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE

97 98 99

REFUSED DK (PROBE: “In general . . .”) NA / REFUSED

11

D3 “What is your current age?” ___ ___ : : : : (RECORD EXACT NUMBER OF YEARS OLD -- E.G., 45) : :: :

* * *

96 97 98 99

NINETY-SIX YEARS OF AGE OR OLDER REFUSED DK NA

D4 “Are you of Hispanic or Spanish origin?"

*

1 2

YES NO

98 99

DON'T KNOW REFUSED

D5 “Which of the following best describes your race? Is it ...White ... African-American ... Asian ... NativeAmerican ... or some other race?” 1 2 3 4 5 6

WHITE (CAUCASIAN) BLACK (AFRICAN-AMERICAN) HISPANIC ASIAN NATIVE AMERICAN OTHER – SPECIFY: ________________________________

98 99

DON’T KNOW NO ANSWER/REFUSED

D6 “Including yourself, how many DEMOCRATIC VOTERS CURRENTLY live in your household?”

*

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

ONE TWO THREE FOUR FIVE SIX SEVEN OR MORE

98 99

DK NA / REFUSED

12

D7 “Not counting business lines, extension phones, or cellular phones -- on how many different telephone NUMBERS can your household be reached?”

*

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

ONE TWO THREE FOUR FIVE SIX SEVEN OR MORE

98 99

DK NA / REFUSED

D8 “How much TOTAL income did you and your family receive in 2008, not just from wages or salaries but from ALL sources -- that is, before taxes and other deductions were made? Was it ... (READ CATEGORIES)

* * *

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

ANNUAL Less than $15,000, $15,000 - $29,999, $30,000 - $44,999, $45,000 - $59,999, $60,000 - $74,999, $75,000 - $99,999, or $100,000 and over?”

97 98 99

REFUSED DK NA

MONTHLY EQUIVALENT LESS THAN $1,250 $1,250 - $2,499 $2,500 - $3,749 $3,750 - $4,999 $5,000 - $6,249 $6,250 - $8,333 $8,334 AND OVER

D9 “Finally, would you be willing to be interviewed by a reporter to discuss your reactions to some of the topics we’ve been talking about?” 1 2

YES
“Could I have just your first name in case a reporter wants to call you?” _________ NO / DK (DO NOT PROBE)

99

NA / REFUSED

“Thank you for your time and participation. Your input has been very valuable. Goodbye.”

13

Tabular Results

14

“If the Democratic primary for US Senator from Massachusetts were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for ... Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?” [WITH LEANERS]

Capuano

Coakley

Khazei

Pagliuca

Other

Don't Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

22%

43%

6%

15%

1%

13%

536

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

26% 16%

42% 43%

6% 6%

11% 21%

1% 1%

14% 12%

336 200

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

24% 27% 20%

54% 53% 33%

9% 6% 4%

11% 14% 17%

0% 0% 1%

0% 0% 25%

136 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 32% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 16% Moderate to Conservative 19%

37% 48% 44%

8% 6% 2%

10% 19% 16%

0% 0% 2%

12% 12% 17%

176 180 152

Capuano as 2nd choice Coakley as 2nd choice Khazei as 2nd choice Pagliuca as 2nd choice Other/Undecided No Second Choice

4% 59% 21% 32% 6% 12%

71% 2% 59% 67% 28% 45%

5% 12% 0% 0% 3% 11%

18% 28% 20% 0% 2% 13%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%

2% 0% 0% 1% 60% 16%

140 123 43 64 92 73

Male Female

24% 22%

33% 49%

9% 4%

24% 9%

1% 0%

10% 15%

213 323

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

21% 24% 21% 25%

27% 41% 44% 44%

4% 8% 5% 5%

29% 16% 13% 16%

0% 0% 1% 0%

18% 12% 15% 8%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

22% 22% 22%

43% 47% 36%

6% 8% 0%

16% 8% 14%

1% 0% 0%

12% 16% 28%

476 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

28% 18% 22% 24%

38% 52% 40% 42%

2% 1% 6% 11%

17% 18% 19% 8%

0% 1% 0% 1%

15% 10% 14% 14%

73 103 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

26% 22% 33% 21% 23%

45% 41% 36% 44% 45%

1% 6% 2% 6% 10%

20% 18% 13% 20% 14%

0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

7% 14% 15% 10% 7%

47 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

25% 14% 26% 28% 19% 21%

33% 51% 52% 44% 41% 39%

5% 4% 3% 8% 10% 4%

17% 21% 9% 8% 18% 18%

0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0%

20% 10% 10% 10% 12% 19%

72 68 65 128 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

20% 27% 17% 39%

40% 43% 47% 7%

8% 5% 4% 28%

17% 14% 16% 5%

2% 0% 0% 0%

13% 11% 16% 21%

157 230 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

19% 18% 24%

34% 40% 44%

0% 8% 6%

31% 16% 14%

0% 2% 0%

16% 16% 13%

17 86 433

15

“If the Democratic primary for US Senator from Massachusetts were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for ... Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?” [NO LEANERS]

Capuano

Coakley

Khazei

Pagliuca

Other

Don't Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

21%

40%

6%

13%

0%

19%

535

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

25% 15%

39% 41%

6% 6%

10% 18%

0% 1%

20% 18%

336 200

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

24% 27% 17%

54% 53% 27%

10% 6% 4%

11% 14% 14%

0% 0% 1%

0% 0% 37%

136 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 30% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 14% Moderate to Conservative 18%

34% 44% 42%

8% 6% 2%

10% 15% 15%

0% 0% 2%

17% 21% 21%

176 180 152

Capuano as 2nd choice Coakley as 2nd choice Khazei as 2nd choice Pagliuca as 2nd choice Other/Undecided No Second Choice

4% 55% 18% 32% 5% 12%

69% 2% 51% 61% 26% 41%

5% 12% 0% 0% 3% 11%

18% 22% 16% 0% 2% 12%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%

4% 10% 15% 7% 64% 22%

140 123 43 63 92 73

Male Female

22% 21%

32% 45%

9% 4%

20% 8%

1% 0%

16% 21%

213 322

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

16% 22% 20% 26%

27% 37% 42% 42%

4% 8% 5% 5%

29% 14% 10% 15%

0% 0% 1% 0%

24% 19% 22% 12%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

21% 17% 21%

41% 47% 25%

6% 8% 0%

14% 0% 14%

1% 0% 0%

18% 29% 39%

475 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

28% 16% 20% 23%

38% 50% 36% 39%

2% 1% 6% 11%

16% 16% 17% 7%

0% 1% 0% 1%

16% 16% 22% 19%

73 103 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

23% 21% 34% 17% 22%

43% 37% 34% 43% 41%

1% 6% 2% 6% 10%

20% 15% 7% 17% 13%

0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

13% 21% 23% 17% 14%

47 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

23% 14% 25% 26% 18% 21%

32% 49% 47% 42% 36% 37%

5% 4% 3% 8% 10% 4%

15% 19% 8% 8% 14% 17%

0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%

25% 14% 17% 16% 22% 21%

71 68 65 128 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

20% 25% 15% 39%

38% 40% 44% 7%

8% 5% 4% 28%

16% 11% 14% 0%

2% 0% 0% 0%

16% 19% 23% 26%

156 230 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

19% 17% 22%

34% 34% 41%

0% 8% 6%

31% 12% 13%

0% 2% 0%

16% 27% 18%

17 86 432

16

“Which candidate would be your second choice (READ LIST WITHOUT 1ST CHOICE) ... Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?"

Capuano

Coakley

Khazei

Pagliuca

Other

No Second Choice

Don't Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

26%

23%

8%

12%

0%

14%

17%

536

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

4% 44% 20% 32% 5%

60% 1% 45% 42% 0%

7% 11% 0% 11% 0%

17% 19% 0% 0% 1%

0% 1% 0% 1% 0%

7% 14% 25% 12% 19%

5% 11% 9% 2% 75%

120 229 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

25% 28%

25% 19%

9% 7%

11% 14%

0% 1%

12% 16%

18% 15%

336 200

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

30% 28% 24%

22% 29% 21%

11% 10% 6%

11% 11% 13%

0% 1% 0%

18% 15% 11%

6% 6% 26%

136 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 29% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 24% Moderate to Conservative 24%

28% 24% 17%

9% 9% 7%

7% 12% 19%

0% 0% 1%

12% 13% 16%

14% 18% 17%

176 180 152

Male Female

26% 26%

28% 19%

6% 9%

11% 13%

0% 1%

16% 12%

12% 20%

213 323

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

37% 22% 27% 27%

13% 33% 21% 20%

0% 3% 11% 9%

13% 14% 9% 14%

0% 0% 1% 1%

18% 12% 14% 14%

19% 17% 17% 15%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

26% 24% 26%

23% 23% 23%

8% 17% 6%

12% 13% 13%

1% 0% 0%

14% 5% 12%

17% 17% 20%

476 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

31% 23% 27% 25%

19% 15% 26% 27%

4% 11% 9% 7%

19% 15% 7% 12%

1% 2% 0% 0%

10% 18% 12% 14%

17% 16% 18% 15%

73 103 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

31% 28% 16% 24% 36%

12% 24% 23% 19% 28%

8% 6% 12% 17% 8%

21% 9% 18% 8% 12%

1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

15% 16% 9% 19% 9%

12% 16% 23% 13% 7%

47 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

18% 27% 30% 25% 30% 25%

35% 16% 17% 29% 20% 18%

5% 4% 8% 6% 17% 6%

6% 15% 14% 12% 8% 17%

0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0%

12% 23% 18% 13% 9% 12%

23% 15% 12% 15% 14% 22%

72 68 65 128 111 92

17

“Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the special primary election for US Senator … are you leaning toward a candidate … or have you considered the candidates and still trying to make up your mind?” Definitely Still Trying Decided Leaning To Decide

Don’t Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

26%

24%

50%

1%

537

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

28% 32% 40% 19% 1%

28% 29% 24% 22% 0%

44% 38% 36% 59% 94%

0% 0% 0% 0% 4%

120 229 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

29% 19%

22% 27%

48% 54%

1% 0%

336 201

Fairly to Extremely Lib Moderate to Somewhat Lib Indep. to Conservative

26% 25% 26%

30% 23% 19%

43% 52% 54%

0% 0% 2%

176 180 154

Male Female

25% 26%

24% 23%

51% 50%

0% 1%

213 324

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

16% 29% 20% 36%

20% 21% 26% 25%

64% 50% 54% 39%

0% 0% 1% 0%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

27% 24% 12%

24% 21% 14%

48% 55% 67%

0% 0% 7%

477 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

29% 23% 25% 26%

15% 37% 19% 24%

55% 37% 56% 50%

1% 3% 0% 0%

73 105 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

24% 27% 26% 28% 22%

29% 23% 19% 26% 25%

47% 49% 54% 45% 53%

0% 1% 0% 1% 0%

47 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

19% 29% 31% 28% 24% 23%

17% 14% 25% 25% 26% 30%

61% 56% 44% 47% 50% 48%

3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

72 68 65 129 111 92

18

“What do you think is the most IMPORTANT problem or issue in the race for Senator from Massachusetts?” Health Care Jobs/ Kennedy Educa- Iraq/ Character/ tion Afghan. Personal Other Reform Economy Legacy DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS 38% 28% 5% 2% 4% 5% 13%

Don't Know

(N=)

5%

532

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

40% 40% 47% 25% 39%

26% 29% 2% 42% 23%

5% 5% 0% 6% 5%

1% 1% 7% 1% 7%

6% 3% 2% 1% 3%

5% 7% 10% 1% 3%

9% 10% 25% 17% 15%

7% 4% 7% 7% 5%

120 227 32 78 73

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

42% 31%

25% 33%

3% 8%

2% 2%

3% 4%

5% 6%

13% 12%

6% 4%

334 198

Definitely decided Vote 39% Leaning towards someone 39% Still trying to decide 37%

28% 31% 26%

6% 4% 5%

3% 1% 3%

1% 4% 5%

3% 7% 6%

14% 11% 13%

8% 4% 5%

137 126 266

Fairly to Extremely Lib 46% Moderate to Somewhat Lib 35% Moderate to Conservative 35%

23% 29% 32%

4% 8% 2%

2% 2% 3%

5% 4% 2%

6% 6% 3%

6% 12% 20%

8% 3% 3%

174 179 152

Male Female

29% 44%

33% 25%

3% 6%

1% 3%

4% 3%

6% 4%

18% 9%

6% 5%

211 321

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

28% 40% 40% 35%

32% 27% 27% 30%

8% 6% 2% 5%

7% 2% 3% 1%

4% 3% 5% 2%

5% 4% 7% 6%

7% 14% 11% 16%

9% 5% 6% 5%

30 134 219 126

White African American Other

40% 35% 12%

27% 41% 39%

5% 0% 0%

2% 8% 7%

3% 0% 8%

5% 0% 14%

13% 8% 20%

6% 8% 0%

474 28 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

28% 33% 43% 39%

28% 36% 25% 27%

8% 5% 5% 4%

3% 1% 2% 3%

6% 1% 2% 6%

4% 3% 6% 6%

12% 15% 12% 12%

12% 6% 5% 3%

73 102 183 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

26% 37% 29% 51% 39%

32% 20% 54% 25% 29%

6% 2% 0% 6% 5%

0% 6% 4% 2% 2%

10% 7% 0% 3% 1%

3% 4% 0% 4% 7%

14% 13% 7% 9% 15%

9% 10% 5% 1% 2%

43 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

40% 29% 34% 41% 38% 41%

30% 31% 21% 28% 28% 30%

8% 12% 6% 1% 3% 3%

3% 2% 5% 1% 4% 1%

3% 3% 10% 2% 0% 5%

1% 7% 8% 6% 6% 4%

11% 10% 8% 14% 19% 9%

5% 6% 7% 7% 2% 7%

71 66 65 128 110 92

19

"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, how about ... Congressman Michael Capuano." Favorable Neutral Unfavorable

DK

(N=)

14%

22%

536

1% 11% 16% 9% 8%

2% 18% 32% 14% 12%

7% 23% 10% 26% 45%

120 228 32 79 74

58% 53%

7% 10%

11% 17%

24% 19%

335 201

57% 60% 54%

7% 13% 6%

20% 12% 11%

16% 15% 28%

138 126 269

Fairly to Extremely Lib 70% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 50% Moderate to Conservative 45%

8% 13% 5%

7% 15% 19%

15% 22% 31%

176 180 154

Male Female

56% 56%

9% 8%

14% 13%

20% 23%

213 323

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

47% 48% 57% 64%

11% 8% 8% 8%

2% 12% 18% 13%

40% 33% 16% 16%

33 134 218 126

White African American Other

56% 56% 57%

8% 8% 8%

14% 11% 7%

21% 26% 29%

476 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

65% 50% 57% 56%

5% 8% 9% 9%

9% 18% 9% 18%

21% 25% 25% 17%

73 103 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

52% 55% 58% 55% 63%

6% 5% 1% 4% 11%

13% 14% 15% 13% 13%

29% 26% 26% 28% 13%

46 74 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

48% 37% 62% 67% 61% 52%

19% 8% 9% 5% 3% 11%

7% 13% 21% 14% 19% 7%

27% 42% 8% 13% 18% 31%

72 68 65 128 110 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

61% 59% 45% 67%

9% 8% 9% 12%

15% 14% 11% 7%

15% 19% 35% 13%

157 229 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

44% 44% 59%

15% 10% 8%

15% 20% 12%

26% 25% 21%

17 86 433

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

56%

8%

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

89% 49% 42% 51% 35%

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

20

"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, how about ... Attorney General Martha Coakley." Favorable Neutral Unfavorable

DK

(N=)

13%

9%

535

14% 1% 20% 7% 9%

21% 1% 28% 25% 14%

8% 2% 4% 17% 27%

120 229 32 78 74

72% 70%

8% 6%

12% 14%

8% 10%

335 200

80% 77% 65%

4% 9% 8%

12% 12% 13%

4% 2% 14%

137 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 73% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 77% Moderate to Conservative 64%

9% 7% 7%

10% 10% 17%

8% 7% 12%

176 180 153

Male Female

64% 76%

6% 8%

20% 8%

10% 8%

212 323

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

42% 72% 73% 72%

15% 8% 6% 7%

21% 8% 13% 15%

22% 12% 8% 5%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

73% 66% 54%

7% 13% 0%

12% 16% 11%

8% 5% 35%

476 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

69% 76% 70% 70%

6% 0% 7% 12%

12% 15% 14% 10%

13% 9% 9% 8%

72 104 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

65% 70% 73% 70% 75%

11% 3% 1% 7% 9%

11% 18% 8% 17% 14%

14% 9% 18% 6% 2%

46 74 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

65% 65% 75% 77% 69% 73%

6% 11% 6% 7% 9% 5%

11% 13% 11% 11% 15% 12%

17% 11% 8% 5% 7% 9%

72 68 65 129 110 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

71% 73% 69% 61%

9% 6% 7% 7%

15% 12% 10% 25%

6% 9% 13% 6%

158 228 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

62% 62% 73%

5% 8% 7%

19% 17% 11%

13% 12% 8%

17 86 433

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

71%

7%

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

58% 95% 48% 51% 50%

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

21

"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, how about ... City Year Founder Alan Khazei." Favorable Neutral Unfavorable

DK

(N=)

12%

50%

536

9% 9% 0% 18% 14%

11% 15% 0% 14% 6%

49% 52% 0% 53% 64%

120 228 32 80 74

30% 24%

9% 12%

10% 14%

50% 49%

336 201

33% 33% 23%

9% 14% 10%

13% 9% 12%

45% 44% 55%

138 126 269

Fairly to Extremely Lib 43% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 28% Moderate to Conservative 11%

8% 13% 9%

5% 15% 17%

44% 44% 62%

176 180 154

Male Female

27% 29%

9% 11%

15% 10%

49% 50%

213 323

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

17% 27% 30% 23%

21% 6% 10% 14%

11% 9% 13% 14%

52% 58% 47% 49%

33 134 218 126

White African American Other

29% 20% 24%

10% 18% 4%

12% 12% 9%

49% 50% 63%

477 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

23% 11% 28% 40%

13% 9% 11% 10%

13% 20% 10% 9%

51% 60% 52% 41%

73 104 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

11% 19% 27% 34% 37%

13% 14% 7% 10% 10%

15% 11% 4% 8% 14%

61% 55% 63% 49% 38%

47 74 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

16% 17% 20% 39% 45% 15%

11% 7% 10% 9% 13% 11%

12% 11% 13% 11% 10% 15%

61% 65% 58% 41% 33% 59%

72 68 65 128 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

35% 29% 18% 35%

11% 10% 12% 5%

10% 14% 8% 39%

45% 47% 62% 21%

157 230 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

23% 18% 30%

7% 12% 10%

10% 17% 11%

60% 53% 49%

17 86 434

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

28%

10%

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

32% 24% 100% 16% 15%

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

22

"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, how about ... Businessman Steve Pagliuca." Favorable Neutral Unfavorable

DK

(N=)

22%

25%

537

12% 15% 27% 3% 15%

33% 23% 33% 2% 20%

24% 29% 15% 3% 39%

120 229 32 80 74

35% 48%

16% 9%

25% 19%

25% 24%

336 201

35% 41% 42%

10% 18% 13%

32% 24% 17%

24% 17% 28%

138 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 38% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 41% Moderate to Conservative 42%

14% 14% 11%

26% 24% 16%

23% 21% 31%

176 180 154

Male Female

42% 38%

18% 10%

19% 25%

21% 27%

213 324

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

46% 38% 34% 50%

8% 7% 20% 8%

27% 20% 24% 23%

19% 34% 22% 20%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

42% 30% 20%

13% 21% 12%

23% 18% 12%

22% 31% 56%

477 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

49% 52% 40% 29%

10% 6% 13% 19%

20% 20% 19% 28%

21% 22% 28% 24%

73 105 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

55% 41% 35% 48% 44%

5% 9% 10% 6% 16%

19% 32% 28% 22% 19%

21% 18% 27% 24% 22%

47 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

34% 47% 35% 36% 43% 45%

12% 10% 15% 14% 11% 16%

20% 18% 26% 30% 23% 15%

34% 25% 25% 20% 24% 24%

72 68 65 129 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

42% 40% 37% 42%

19% 9% 12% 15%

21% 25% 19% 36%

17% 26% 32% 6%

158 230 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

62% 31% 41%

12% 17% 13%

14% 19% 23%

12% 33% 23%

17 86 434

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

40%

13%

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

31% 32% 25% 92% 26%

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

23

“Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if they were elected Senator. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which candidate do you think would do the best job handling … health care reform.”

Capuano

Coakley

Khazei

Pagliuca

All Equal

Don't Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

20%

42%

4%

11%

2%

20%

534

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

60% 5% 23% 10% 12%

17% 78% 1% 18% 19%

1% 2% 45% 3% 0%

4% 3% 0% 52% 4%

1% 1% 12% 1% 6%

16% 11% 19% 16% 60%

120 229 32 80 72

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

21% 18%

44% 40%

5% 4%

8% 15%

2% 3%

20% 21%

334 200

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

18% 26% 19%

56% 47% 34%

5% 5% 3%

9% 11% 12%

3% 4% 1%

9% 7% 31%

138 126 267

Fairly to Extremely Lib 29% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 17% Moderate to Conservative 13%

39% 48% 41%

6% 3% 4%

6% 14% 15%

3% 1% 3%

16% 18% 24%

176 178 154

Male Female

21% 20%

37% 46%

5% 3%

15% 8%

4% 1%

18% 22%

210 324

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

8% 17% 21% 25%

33% 37% 47% 41%

0% 6% 5% 2%

26% 11% 8% 13%

5% 2% 1% 4%

29% 27% 17% 14%

33 132 218 126

White African American Other

20% 23% 25%

42% 49% 40%

4% 4% 0%

11% 10% 10%

2% 5% 0%

20% 9% 26%

475 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

16% 14% 21% 25%

50% 44% 42% 39%

2% 4% 3% 6%

15% 18% 9% 6%

2% 3% 3% 1%

15% 17% 21% 22%

73 104 185 172

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

9% 22% 39% 26% 22%

46% 45% 34% 37% 40%

0% 1% 2% 4% 8%

20% 17% 9% 12% 10%

6% 2% 0% 0% 2%

20% 12% 15% 21% 18%

47 75 38 64 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

19% 11% 22% 27% 23% 14%

40% 48% 52% 42% 36% 42%

2% 3% 2% 6% 7% 2%

10% 15% 11% 4% 13% 15%

5% 0% 3% 2% 3% 2%

24% 24% 10% 19% 18% 25%

71 66 65 129 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

21% 25% 12% 10%

44% 41% 45% 7%

6% 4% 3% 5%

15% 10% 8% 0%

2% 2% 2% 28%

12% 18% 31% 50%

158 228 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

19% 6% 23%

26% 42% 43%

0% 7% 4%

13% 14% 10%

0% 4% 2%

42% 27% 18%

17 86 432

24

“Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if they were elected Senator. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which candidate do you think would do the best job handling … the war in Afghanistan.” All Don't Khazei Pagliuca Equal Know (N=) Capuano Coakley DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS 27% 20% 3% 8% 3% 39% 532 Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

54% 17% 25% 23% 17%

10% 36% 7% 7% 6%

3% 2% 22% 2% 2%

1% 3% 3% 38% 3%

1% 4% 6% 2% 4%

31% 39% 36% 28% 67%

120 225 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

28% 25%

20% 19%

4% 2%

6% 11%

3% 3%

38% 40%

333 200

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

28% 31% 25%

27% 28% 13%

4% 1% 4%

8% 11% 6%

5% 4% 2%

28% 25% 50%

133 126 269

Fairly to Extremely Lib 35% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 28% Moderate to Conservative 17%

22% 21% 18%

6% 3% 1%

2% 8% 13%

5% 2% 3%

30% 38% 49%

176 179 151

Male Female

28% 26%

16% 22%

2% 4%

13% 5%

5% 2%

36% 41%

210 322

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

18% 26% 31% 25%

12% 14% 22% 21%

0% 3% 5% 2%

19% 9% 4% 11%

4% 3% 3% 3%

47% 45% 35% 38%

33 131 218 126

White African American Other

26% 28% 32%

20% 28% 12%

3% 5% 0%

8% 3% 3%

3% 0% 0%

39% 36% 53%

475 27 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

31% 26% 26% 26%

15% 28% 17% 20%

2% 1% 3% 6%

8% 14% 9% 3%

2% 2% 3% 4%

42% 29% 43% 40%

73 102 184 173

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

20% 23% 34% 24% 36%

21% 24% 6% 14% 21%

0% 6% 2% 9% 1%

11% 10% 6% 11% 6%

3% 3% 0% 4% 4%

45% 34% 51% 38% 32%

47 75 40 62 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

25% 17% 30% 36% 26% 22%

16% 25% 25% 20% 20% 14%

7% 3% 3% 2% 4% 3%

7% 13% 7% 3% 9% 11%

3% 3% 3% 5% 4% 0%

42% 39% 32% 35% 37% 50%

71 68 65 128 109 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

31% 30% 17% 46%

22% 22% 14% 7%

4% 4% 2% 0%

11% 6% 8% 5%

3% 2% 5% 0%

30% 36% 55% 41%

158 229 136 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

30% 20% 28%

10% 18% 20%

0% 5% 3%

17% 8% 7%

4% 4% 3%

38% 45% 38%

17 86 429

25

“Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if they were elected Senator. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which candidate do you think would do the best job handling … improving the US economy.” All Don't Khazei Pagliuca Equal Know (N=) Capuano Coakley DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS 18% 23% 4% 27% 3% 25% 536 Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

43% 13% 11% 5% 8%

11% 42% 10% 3% 11%

2% 2% 32% 1% 2%

16% 21% 17% 76% 16%

3% 3% 12% 1% 3%

24% 18% 18% 15% 60%

120 229 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

18% 18%

28% 15%

3% 5%

24% 33%

3% 3%

24% 26%

336 200

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

19% 24% 15%

36% 24% 16%

5% 4% 3%

22% 29% 29%

4% 4% 2%

13% 15% 35%

138 126 269

Fairly to Extremely Lib 22% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 16% Moderate to Conservative 14%

20% 21% 27%

5% 6% 1%

28% 28% 30%

3% 3% 3%

22% 27% 26%

176 180 154

Male Female

20% 17%

16% 28%

2% 5%

37% 21%

3% 3%

22% 27%

212 324

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

9% 15% 21% 20%

24% 19% 24% 24%

0% 4% 5% 4%

29% 26% 25% 32%

4% 4% 2% 2%

34% 33% 23% 17%

33 134 218 126

White African American Other

18% 16% 15%

22% 50% 10%

4% 0% 0%

27% 30% 26%

3% 0% 0%

25% 5% 49%

477 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

26% 16% 17% 16%

32% 25% 20% 22%

3% 4% 1% 7%

26% 30% 32% 21%

1% 1% 4% 3%

11% 24% 25% 31%

73 104 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

11% 18% 30% 9% 26%

29% 24% 18% 26% 21%

1% 5% 7% 3% 2%

30% 29% 10% 38% 30%

3% 2% 3% 4% 5%

26% 22% 32% 20% 17%

47 75 40 64 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

21% 5% 31% 20% 19% 13%

21% 28% 22% 21% 22% 25%

1% 2% 3% 7% 7% 0%

25% 29% 28% 22% 28% 32%

3% 4% 1% 6% 3% 0%

29% 32% 15% 24% 21% 30%

71 68 65 129 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

19% 22% 11% 0%

22% 24% 25% 0%

5% 4% 2% 7%

32% 25% 26% 25%

3% 3% 1% 25%

19% 22% 36% 43%

158 230 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

35% 16% 18%

18% 23% 23%

0% 2% 4%

34% 22% 28%

0% 4% 3%

13% 33% 24%

17 86 434

26

“How important is it that a candidate refuses to accept contributions from PACs and lobbyists in deciding who you will vote for … very important … somewhat important … or not important at all?” Very Somewhat Not Important Don't At All Know Important Important

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

42%

38%

17%

2%

537

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

38% 41% 45% 54% 40%

34% 40% 50% 32% 39%

26% 18% 0% 11% 16%

2% 1% 6% 3% 4%

120 229 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

39% 49%

38% 37%

22% 10%

1% 4%

336 201

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

41% 43% 42%

29% 39% 42%

27% 17% 13%

3% 1% 2%

138 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 34% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 45% Moderate to Conservative 50%

44% 42% 28%

20% 12% 19%

2% 1% 3%

176 180 154

Male Female

36% 46%

38% 38%

21% 15%

4% 1%

213 324

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

33% 48% 38% 50%

46% 36% 41% 29%

14% 17% 18% 19%

7% 0% 3% 3%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

40% 61% 68%

40% 29% 15%

18% 7% 18%

2% 4% 0%

477 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

54% 57% 42% 29%

26% 29% 37% 50%

16% 12% 20% 18%

4% 2% 1% 3%

73 105 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

51% 55% 44% 48% 36%

26% 31% 35% 34% 49%

23% 13% 17% 16% 12%

0% 0% 4% 3% 3%

47 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

50% 48% 44% 42% 38% 37%

31% 35% 37% 38% 41% 42%

16% 14% 20% 19% 18% 17%

2% 3% 0% 1% 3% 4%

72 68 65 129 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

43% 43% 41% 26%

39% 38% 38% 10%

18% 17% 17% 36%

0% 2% 3% 28%

158 230 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

55% 48% 41%

13% 39% 39%

11% 12% 19%

21% 1% 2%

17 86 434

27

“How important is it that a candidate shares the values of Ted Kennedy in deciding who you will vote for … very important … somewhat important … or not important at all?” Very Somewhat Not Important Don't At All Know Important Important

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

40%

37%

22%

1%

537

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

43% 44% 32% 28% 39%

45% 32% 37% 46% 34%

12% 24% 31% 26% 23%

0% 0% 0% 0% 4%

120 229 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

43% 34%

37% 39%

19% 27%

1% 0%

336 201

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

40% 45% 37%

34% 38% 39%

26% 16% 23%

0% 0% 1%

138 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 51% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 34% Moderate to Conservative 33%

41% 42% 27%

7% 24% 40%

1% 0% 1%

176 180 154

Male Female

28% 47%

39% 36%

32% 16%

1% 0%

213 324

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

47% 41% 36% 44%

38% 31% 43% 33%

15% 27% 20% 22%

0% 1% 0% 1%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

38% 58% 50%

39% 17% 31%

23% 24% 19%

1% 0% 0%

477 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

54% 41% 36% 37%

32% 29% 36% 46%

13% 29% 27% 17%

1% 1% 1% 0%

73 105 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

48% 48% 41% 40% 34%

36% 30% 41% 44% 41%

14% 22% 17% 16% 25%

2% 0% 0% 0% 0%

47 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

53% 43% 36% 38% 36% 36%

25% 28% 44% 44% 31% 47%

20% 28% 20% 17% 32% 17%

2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%

72 68 65 129 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

48% 41% 31% 6%

36% 39% 37% 12%

15% 19% 32% 74%

1% 1% 0% 7%

158 230 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

25% 38% 41%

30% 24% 40%

45% 37% 18%

0% 1% 1%

17 86 434

28

“As you may know, Congress is debating a major health care reform bill that could end up restricting federal funding for abortions. Which of the following best represents your position on this issue ... the bill should be passed even with limits on abortion funding ... the bill should be passed only if the limits are removed ... or the bill should not be passed either way.” Pass w/ Only Pass Don’t Pass Abortion w/Abortion Either Limits Limits Removed Way

Don't Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

43%

32%

19%

6%

532

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

44% 42% 46% 40% 46%

34% 32% 42% 27% 29%

16% 20% 9% 25% 17%

5% 6% 3% 7% 8%

119 226 32 80 73

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

42% 46%

32% 32%

21% 16%

6% 6%

334 198

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

43% 45% 43%

31% 32% 32%

21% 18% 18%

5% 5% 7%

136 126 267

Fairly to Extremely Lib 48% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 42% Moderate to Conservative 39%

39% 35% 20%

6% 15% 38%

7% 8% 4%

176 178 151

Male Female

49% 40%

24% 37%

23% 16%

4% 7%

211 322

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

44% 33% 44% 53%

38% 36% 36% 18%

15% 27% 14% 20%

3% 4% 6% 9%

33 133 216 126

White African American Other

43% 43% 41%

33% 28% 20%

19% 14% 27%

5% 14% 13%

472 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

39% 43% 37% 53%

29% 22% 37% 33%

28% 27% 19% 10%

3% 8% 7% 4%

72 103 184 173

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

43% 47% 34% 48% 42%

24% 28% 32% 34% 35%

22% 23% 27% 14% 16%

11% 2% 7% 3% 7%

47 74 40 65 145

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

51% 38% 40% 43% 48% 40%

33% 28% 36% 35% 29% 31%

9% 25% 17% 19% 17% 24%

7% 8% 7% 4% 6% 5%

70 68 65 129 109 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

44% 46% 39% 25%

36% 30% 30% 31%

15% 15% 27% 44%

4% 9% 4% 0%

156 227 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

45% 33% 45%

19% 42% 30%

24% 18% 19%

12% 6% 6%

17 84 431

29

“If a candidate has extensive experience in Congress, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would that make little difference in your vote?” More No Less Likely Likely Difference To Vote For Vote For In Vote

Don’t Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

43%

46%

10%

1%

537

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

70% 37% 18% 32% 38%

27% 51% 67% 50% 46%

3% 11% 16% 16% 13%

0% 1% 0% 2% 3%

120 229 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

47% 36%

46% 46%

6% 17%

1% 2%

336 201

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

40% 37% 47%

44% 52% 43%

15% 9% 9%

1% 2% 1%

138 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 49% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 45% Moderate to Conservative 30%

44% 47% 48%

6% 8% 21%

2% 1% 1%

176 180 154

Male Female

38% 46%

47% 45%

13% 9%

2% 1%

213 324

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

54% 41% 43% 41%

36% 49% 47% 41%

10% 9% 9% 15%

0% 0% 1% 3%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

42% 43% 48%

45% 47% 50%

11% 10% 3%

1% 0% 0%

477 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

58% 37% 37% 46%

31% 50% 48% 48%

8% 14% 14% 6%

3% 0% 2% 1%

73 105 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

41% 41% 60% 39% 43%

46% 41% 32% 48% 47%

11% 16% 8% 12% 8%

2% 2% 0% 1% 1%

47 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

37% 35% 44% 48% 38% 50%

51% 55% 46% 45% 45% 37%

8% 10% 9% 6% 17% 11%

4% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2%

72 68 65 129 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

39% 43% 47% 36%

48% 48% 38% 64%

13% 8% 13% 0%

0% 2% 3% 0%

158 230 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

39% 36% 44%

46% 40% 47%

13% 22% 8%

2% 2% 1%

17 86 434

30

“If a candidate is a political outsider with extensive experience in non profit organizations, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would that make little difference in your vote?” More No Less Likely Likely Difference To Vote For Vote For In Vote

Don’t Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

27%

56%

16%

2%

534

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

21% 22% 58% 35% 31%

57% 60% 42% 51% 50%

22% 15% 0% 14% 14%

0% 3% 0% 0% 5%

120 228 31 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

25% 31%

58% 51%

15% 16%

2% 2%

334 200

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

21% 35% 26%

59% 44% 58%

17% 21% 13%

2% 0% 3%

134 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 33% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 24% Moderate to Conservative 25%

49% 59% 56%

15% 17% 16%

3% 1% 2%

176 178 152

Male Female

27% 27%

58% 54%

15% 16%

0% 3%

211 323

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

37% 30% 27% 22%

61% 51% 55% 59%

2% 18% 15% 16%

0% 0% 3% 3%

33 134 217 125

White African American Other

28% 13% 27%

54% 63% 68%

15% 24% 5%

2% 0% 0%

474 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

29% 32% 25% 25%

58% 51% 56% 57%

11% 17% 15% 17%

2% 0% 3% 1%

73 105 182 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

36% 28% 27% 29% 26%

48% 59% 54% 51% 57%

13% 13% 19% 17% 14%

2% 0% 0% 3% 2%

47 75 40 65 145

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

21% 34% 24% 28% 21% 34%

60% 54% 58% 58% 50% 55%

17% 12% 15% 13% 24% 11%

2% 0% 3% 1% 5% 0%

72 68 63 129 109 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

25% 24% 33% 33%

57% 55% 56% 18%

17% 19% 6% 49%

2% 1% 4% 0%

158 228 140 7

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

17% 30% 27%

62% 53% 56%

20% 12% 16%

0% 5% 2%

17 85 432

31

“If a candidate has extensive experience as a prosecutor, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would that make little difference in your vote?” More No Less Likely Likely Difference To Vote For Vote For In Vote

Don’t Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

22%

65%

11%

2%

537

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

14% 33% 9% 16% 16%

67% 59% 80% 69% 72%

16% 6% 12% 15% 12%

3% 3% 0% 0% 0%

120 229 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

22% 23%

66% 65%

11% 10%

2% 2%

336 201

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

29% 26% 17%

60% 63% 68%

8% 8% 13%

2% 2% 2%

138 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 17% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 23% Moderate to Conservative 25%

68% 67% 62%

11% 9% 12%

4% 1% 1%

176 180 154

Male Female

25% 21%

64% 66%

10% 11%

1% 3%

213 324

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

16% 30% 17% 23%

51% 63% 70% 64%

33% 7% 11% 10%

0% 0% 2% 3%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

22% 25% 35%

67% 53% 60%

10% 17% 5%

2% 5% 0%

477 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

30% 28% 20% 18%

55% 62% 67% 70%

10% 9% 12% 11%

4% 1% 2% 1%

73 105 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

22% 20% 22% 9% 26%

57% 60% 61% 74% 66%

14% 19% 17% 14% 7%

7% 2% 1% 3% 1%

47 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

17% 18% 28% 25% 21% 22%

67% 66% 59% 65% 67% 66%

13% 16% 11% 7% 10% 11%

3% 0% 3% 2% 2% 2%

72 68 65 129 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

24% 21% 21% 36%

65% 66% 66% 46%

10% 11% 11% 18%

1% 2% 2% 0%

158 230 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

25% 25% 22%

48% 59% 67%

27% 13% 10%

0% 4% 2%

17 86 434

32

“If a candidate has extensive business experience, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would that make little difference in your vote?” More No Less Likely Likely Difference To Vote For Vote For In Vote

Don’t Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

39%

48%

10%

3%

537

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

30% 32% 35% 68% 45%

53% 54% 50% 27% 39%

15% 10% 11% 5% 9%

2% 4% 4% 1% 6%

120 229 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

37% 41%

47% 48%

13% 7%

3% 4%

336 201

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

38% 30% 44%

47% 55% 44%

9% 14% 9%

6% 1% 3%

138 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 18% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 43% Moderate to Conservative 56%

59% 47% 36%

20% 7% 4%

3% 3% 4%

176 180 154

Male Female

44% 35%

48% 47%

6% 13%

2% 4%

213 324

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

30% 45% 32% 46%

60% 42% 54% 40%

10% 11% 12% 8%

0% 3% 2% 6%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

38% 51% 35%

48% 38% 64%

11% 3% 1%

3% 8% 0%

477 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

46% 38% 47% 27%

43% 52% 41% 54%

5% 6% 9% 16%

6% 4% 2% 3%

73 105 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

48% 41% 38% 32% 37%

46% 43% 35% 58% 51%

3% 14% 19% 6% 11%

3% 2% 7% 3% 1%

47 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

34% 41% 32% 29% 45% 51%

58% 51% 50% 52% 41% 37%

7% 7% 14% 14% 10% 7%

2% 1% 3% 4% 4% 5%

72 68 65 129 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

37% 37% 42% 74%

46% 49% 48% 20%

13% 11% 7% 0%

4% 3% 4% 6%

158 230 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

40% 41% 38%

50% 48% 47%

10% 9% 11%

0% 1% 4%

17 86 434

33

“Which candidate do you think best understands the problems of people like yourself … Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?"

Capuano

Coakley

Khazei

Pagliuca

All Equal

Don't Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

19%

35%

6%

13%

5%

22%

533

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

56% 6% 13% 13% 6%

13% 68% 3% 5% 15%

2% 3% 76% 2% 0%

5% 4% 0% 61% 7%

6% 4% 2% 7% 9%

20% 16% 6% 11% 62%

120 225 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

21% 17%

37% 31%

6% 7%

10% 18%

5% 5%

21% 22%

333 200

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

24% 19% 17%

52% 39% 24%

8% 6% 6%

9% 14% 15%

1% 7% 7%

6% 15% 32%

136 126 267

Fairly to Extremely Lib 21% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 18% Moderate to Conservative 18%

35% 34% 34%

9% 6% 3%

11% 12% 17%

6% 7% 3%

17% 23% 25%

176 179 152

Male Female

21% 18%

25% 41%

9% 5%

18% 10%

5% 5%

22% 21%

210 323

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

13% 22% 18% 19%

23% 33% 37% 35%

8% 8% 7% 3%

27% 11% 11% 17%

4% 4% 6% 5%

25% 22% 21% 22%

33 134 216 126

White African American Other

18% 22% 39%

35% 46% 9%

6% 11% 0%

14% 11% 7%

6% 0% 8%

21% 10% 37%

473 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

26% 17% 18% 19%

35% 35% 34% 34%

2% 3% 6% 10%

15% 19% 14% 7%

5% 7% 5% 5%

17% 19% 23% 24%

73 102 185 173

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

16% 26% 23% 22% 20%

35% 34% 27% 32% 36%

1% 5% 4% 9% 10%

24% 13% 7% 12% 14%

3% 4% 11% 6% 3%

22% 18% 27% 19% 16%

47 73 40 63 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

15% 10% 24% 25% 19% 18%

30% 45% 40% 35% 29% 32%

5% 5% 3% 7% 12% 4%

15% 24% 11% 5% 14% 15%

5% 0% 12% 4% 7% 4%

29% 15% 10% 24% 19% 27%

71 68 65 128 111 90

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

21% 21% 13% 36%

36% 38% 30% 0%

9% 5% 5% 5%

14% 9% 18% 10%

3% 7% 6% 0%

17% 20% 28% 49%

157 229 138 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

23% 14% 20%

12% 28% 37%

0% 8% 6%

53% 17% 11%

0% 3% 6%

12% 30% 20%

17 84 432

34

“Which candidate do you think is the most qualified candidate … Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?"

Capuano

Coakley

Khazei

Pagliuca

All Equal

Don't Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

25%

35%

2%

10%

6%

23%

532

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

71% 9% 26% 16% 7%

6% 67% 17% 14% 17%

0% 0% 27% 0% 0%

3% 1% 0% 54% 2%

4% 4% 11% 6% 8%

15% 18% 18% 10% 66%

119 227 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

26% 22%

36% 33%

1% 2%

7% 13%

6% 5%

22% 24%

336 196

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

26% 34% 20%

52% 36% 26%

4% 1% 1%

10% 12% 8%

5% 5% 7%

3% 11% 38%

137 126 266

Fairly to Extremely Lib 36% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 22% Moderate to Conservative 15%

28% 37% 39%

2% 1% 2%

5% 10% 14%

7% 5% 6%

22% 24% 24%

176 180 150

Male Female

29% 22%

30% 39%

3% 1%

13% 7%

6% 5%

20% 25%

212 320

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

20% 24% 27% 26%

33% 34% 36% 36%

0% 4% 1% 1%

29% 9% 5% 14%

2% 2% 8% 6%

17% 26% 24% 17%

33 134 216 125

White African American Other

24% 30% 30%

35% 55% 21%

2% 0% 0%

10% 4% 7%

6% 6% 0%

22% 5% 42%

473 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

28% 19% 26% 27%

33% 43% 34% 33%

2% 1% 1% 2%

12% 13% 12% 4%

5% 6% 4% 8%

21% 19% 23% 25%

73 101 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

23% 20% 36% 16% 34%

41% 35% 24% 34% 35%

0% 2% 2% 0% 3%

18% 10% 7% 15% 8%

3% 5% 2% 9% 6%

15% 28% 29% 25% 14%

47 74 40 64 144

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

23% 5% 31% 34% 24% 25%

37% 45% 35% 29% 34% 37%

1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 0%

10% 12% 8% 4% 12% 14%

5% 4% 6% 7% 8% 3%

25% 32% 18% 23% 21% 20%

71 66 65 129 109 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

30% 27% 14% 39%

33% 35% 40% 7%

2% 2% 0% 7%

13% 8% 9% 0%

6% 5% 6% 25%

17% 22% 31% 21%

158 227 139 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

12% 20% 26%

43% 43% 33%

0% 4% 1%

32% 8% 9%

0% 1% 7%

14% 24% 23%

16 84 433

35

“Which candidate would you most like to have a beer with … Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?"

Capuano

Coakley

Khazei

Pagliuca

All Equal

Don't Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

15%

26%

7%

20%

8%

24%

522

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

41% 8% 9% 7% 5%

15% 43% 11% 7% 16%

7% 3% 52% 3% 5%

10% 16% 2% 63% 10%

4% 8% 20% 6% 11%

23% 21% 6% 14% 52%

117 223 32 77 72

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

15% 15%

28% 22%

8% 6%

16% 27%

8% 9%

25% 21%

328 194

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

16% 17% 14%

35% 32% 18%

10% 7% 6%

16% 21% 22%

8% 8% 9%

15% 16% 31%

131 125 263

Fairly to Extremely Lib 16% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 18% Moderate to Conservative 12%

27% 22% 26%

12% 9% 1%

14% 26% 21%

9% 6% 9%

22% 20% 30%

174 175 148

Male Female

17% 14%

14% 33%

8% 7%

28% 15%

7% 9%

26% 23%

207 316

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

13% 15% 16% 15%

21% 26% 23% 29%

0% 8% 10% 4%

44% 20% 18% 17%

4% 8% 8% 9%

17% 23% 25% 25%

33 129 217 120

White African American Other

14% 16% 18%

25% 53% 11%

7% 14% 1%

20% 11% 27%

9% 0% 1%

24% 7% 42%

462 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

19% 18% 14% 13%

27% 30% 24% 23%

1% 2% 7% 13%

25% 21% 24% 13%

9% 6% 11% 7%

18% 23% 20% 30%

70 103 180 169

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

14% 10% 28% 21% 16%

26% 34% 20% 13% 30%

0% 7% 8% 10% 10%

25% 24% 9% 25% 21%

10% 10% 2% 6% 8%

25% 15% 32% 24% 16%

46 73 39 62 146

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

16% 14% 22% 23% 5% 13%

19% 19% 26% 23% 31% 32%

6% 4% 3% 8% 14% 4%

23% 25% 23% 12% 19% 24%

6% 14% 3% 8% 13% 3%

30% 25% 23% 26% 17% 25%

71 66 61 124 109 91

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

17% 19% 7% 15%

27% 25% 25% 29%

7% 8% 5% 20%

22% 17% 23% 7%

11% 5% 11% 0%

16% 26% 29% 28%

155 223 136 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

0% 12% 16%

25% 34% 24%

8% 8% 7%

52% 14% 20%

0% 11% 8%

15% 22% 25%

17 82 424

36

“Which candidate do you think will win the Democratic nomination for US Senate … Michael Capuano … Martha Coakley … Alan Khazei … or Steve Pagliuca?"

Capuano

Coakley

Khazei

Pagliuca

Don't Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

13%

57%

1%

7%

22%

535

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

30% 8% 13% 12% 4%

44% 77% 68% 41% 29%

0% 0% 12% 0% 0%

5% 2% 0% 30% 3%

21% 13% 7% 17% 65%

120 228 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

13% 13%

56% 58%

0% 1%

6% 8%

24% 20%

335 200

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

16% 11% 13%

70% 71% 44%

2% 1% 0%

4% 7% 8%

8% 10% 35%

137 126 269

Fairly to Extremely Lib 11% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 13% Moderate to Conservative 13%

60% 59% 53%

1% 1% 0%

6% 8% 6%

23% 18% 28%

176 180 153

Male Female

12% 14%

63% 53%

0% 1%

9% 6%

15% 27%

212 323

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

2% 17% 11% 14%

45% 54% 64% 54%

0% 1% 0% 1%

25% 4% 5% 9%

28% 24% 19% 23%

33 133 218 126

White African American Other

13% 9% 10%

57% 63% 50%

1% 0% 0%

7% 11% 4%

22% 17% 37%

475 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

22% 15% 11% 10%

38% 51% 62% 63%

1% 1% 0% 1%

12% 11% 7% 2%

26% 22% 20% 24%

72 104 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

24% 12% 26% 8% 13%

43% 47% 48% 66% 65%

0% 1% 2% 0% 0%

6% 16% 7% 7% 6%

27% 24% 18% 19% 16%

47 73 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

8% 9% 14% 18% 10% 17%

51% 49% 60% 63% 64% 47%

1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0%

10% 13% 6% 5% 6% 5%

31% 27% 19% 14% 18% 31%

72 68 65 128 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

15% 14% 7% 48%

59% 57% 56% 30%

1% 1% 0% 0%

6% 7% 9% 0%

20% 20% 28% 23%

157 230 140 8

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

4% 17% 13%

64% 50% 58%

0% 1% 1%

13% 6% 7%

18% 26% 22%

17 86 432

37

"Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who has had government experience from holding an elected office ... would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who is a newcomer to politics and who could bring other kinds of experience to the job ... or would that make little difference in your vote?" Prefer Makes Cand. Prefer Little w/Exper. Newcomer Difference

Don’t Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

32%

21%

45%

2%

536

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

50% 33% 10% 15% 29%

8% 15% 52% 44% 22%

38% 52% 36% 38% 46%

3% 0% 2% 2% 3%

120 229 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

31% 34%

19% 24%

49% 40%

1% 3%

336 201

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

31% 39% 30%

21% 23% 20%

47% 37% 49%

2% 1% 2%

138 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib 39% Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib 31% Moderate to Conservative 24%

14% 22% 27%

45% 45% 47%

2% 1% 2%

176 180 153

Male Female

28% 34%

27% 17%

42% 48%

3% 1%

212 324

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

41% 31% 32% 31%

38% 23% 18% 19%

21% 43% 48% 48%

0% 2% 1% 2%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

33% 29% 34%

21% 25% 21%

45% 46% 37%

1% 0% 8%

476 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

35% 28% 28% 37%

20% 24% 27% 13%

44% 46% 42% 49%

2% 2% 3% 1%

73 105 185 173

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

20% 15% 40% 44% 35%

37% 27% 20% 20% 17%

39% 57% 38% 36% 46%

3% 1% 2% 0% 1%

47 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

31% 26% 40% 40% 25% 29%

22% 27% 12% 19% 23% 22%

47% 47% 45% 39% 51% 45%

0% 0% 2% 2% 2% 4%

72 68 65 129 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

32% 35% 28% 7%

20% 21% 21% 40%

46% 43% 49% 53%

2% 2% 2% 0%

158 230 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

55% 26% 32%

32% 31% 18%

13% 43% 47%

0% 0% 2%

17 86 433

38

“All things being equal, would you prefer to vote for a man or a woman for US Senator, or would that make little difference in your vote?” Want to Vote for Man

Want to Makes Vote For No Woman Difference

Don’t Know

(N=)

DEM PRIM LIKELY VOTERS

1%

16%

82%

1%

537

Capuano voter Coakley voter Khazei voter Pagliuca voter Other/Undecided voter

0% 0% 0% 3% 2%

19% 19% 22% 2% 16%

79% 81% 78% 94% 81%

1% 1% 0% 0% 1%

120 229 32 80 74

Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated

1% 1%

17% 14%

81% 85%

1% 0%

336 201

Definitely decided Vote Leaning towards someone Still trying to decide

0% 1% 1%

19% 16% 15%

80% 83% 84%

1% 0% 1%

138 126 270

Fairly to Extremely Lib Moderate Lib to Somewhat Lib Moderate to Conservative

0% 0% 2%

28% 12% 8%

72% 86% 90%

0% 2% 0%

176 180 154

Male Female

2% 0%

10% 20%

88% 79%

0% 1%

213 324

35 or under 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

0% 1% 0% 2%

27% 19% 16% 12%

73% 79% 84% 85%

0% 1% 0% 2%

33 134 219 126

White African American Other

0% 0% 9%

17% 18% 5%

82% 77% 86%

0% 5% 0%

477 29 24

High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate

1% 1% 1% 1%

7% 12% 13% 27%

93% 87% 85% 72%

0% 0% 1% 0%

73 105 185 174

Less than $30K $30K to $60K $60K to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more

0% 1% 3% 2% 0%

9% 12% 9% 18% 22%

91% 87% 88% 78% 78%

0% 0% 0% 2% 0%

47 75 40 65 147

Western MA Central MA Essex Middlesex Norfolk/Suffolk Southern/Cape

3% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0%

17% 7% 13% 20% 21% 13%

79% 92% 87% 79% 77% 85%

2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1%

72 68 65 129 111 92

Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

1% 1% 1% 0%

22% 15% 12% 6%

78% 83% 86% 94%

0% 1% 1% 0%

158 230 140 9

Did not vote in 2006 or 2008 Voted once Voted twice

0% 1% 1%

8% 17% 16%

92% 82% 82%

0% 0% 1%

17 86 434

39