Leaked Steadman Poll September 2007
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SocioSocio-Political Research Unit
SPEC BAROMETER RESULTS SEPTEMBER 2007
www.steadman-group.com
BROAD OBJECTIVES The Social Political Economic and Cultural (SPEC) Barometer is carried out by the Steadman Group on quarterly basis in Kenya with the following broad objectives: •
To assist policy-makers, advocacy and interest groups, media practitioners, and ordinary citizens to make more accurate assessments of the state of public opinion.
•
To provide systematic and representative data for short and longer term tracking so as to measure changes over time in public attitudes and behaviour patterns on a variety of sectoral, regional and national issues.
•
To promote, in general, understanding and the use of accurate information based on reliable, scientific surveys, and in so doing, promote more informed public debate on policy issues. www.steadman-group.com
SPECIFIC SURVEY OBJECTIVES Specifically, the objectives of this part of the survey were to: •
track the level of approval of the government and President’s performance
•
track the popularity of various political parties
•
track the popularity of various presidential aspirants
www.steadman-group.com
POLL METHODOLOGY SAMPLE SIZE: 2040 adults aged 18 years and above
SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION:
Sample distributed population proportion to size across the 8 provinces
FIELDWORK DATES: The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 27th August and 4th September 2007
METHOD:
All interviews carried out at household level
QUALITY CONTROLS: Field supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, www.steadman-group.com
"Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?" (Time series)
ODM-Kenya
60%
PaNu
NARC
KANU
FORD-K
ODM
50% 37% 30%
26%
230% 17%
23% 20% 17%
16%
18%
24% 19%
0%
1% 0% 0%
Sept-05
Oct-05
0% 0%
Nov-05
21%
19%
17%
17%
19%
14% 10%
2% 0% 0%
24%
24% 19%
1% 0% 0%
Dec-05
1% Mar-06
38%
33%
32%
30%
25%
36%
35%
21% 13%
10% 7%
2% 1%
6% 4% 1%
Jul-06
Oct-06
3% 1%
4% 1%
2% 1%
Dec-06
Mar-07
Sept-07
www.steadman-group.com
ODM remains the most popular single party and at a slightly higher level compared to March (45% now compared to 34% for ODM-Kenya then).
Total support for Narc and Narc-K, combined, has dropped significantly in the last three months, now being less than that of ODM for the first time (34% compared to 38%).
The number of those who do not identify with any party has increased from 13% to 21% during this same period.
www.steadman-group.com
SPEC BAROMETER RESULTS SEPTEMBER 2007
www.steadman-group.com
BROAD OBJECTIVES The Social Political Economic and Cultural (SPEC) Barometer is carried out by the Steadman Group on quarterly basis in Kenya with the following broad objectives: •
To assist policy-makers, advocacy and interest groups, media practitioners, and ordinary citizens to make more accurate assessments of the state of public opinion.
•
To provide systematic and representative data for short and longer term tracking so as to measure changes over time in public attitudes and behaviour patterns on a variety of sectoral, regional and national issues.
•
To promote, in general, understanding and the use of accurate information based on reliable, scientific surveys, and in so doing, promote more informed public debate on policy issues. www.steadman-group.com
SPECIFIC SURVEY OBJECTIVES Specifically, the objectives of this part of the survey were to: •
track the level of approval of the government and President’s performance
•
track the popularity of various political parties
•
track the popularity of various presidential aspirants
www.steadman-group.com
POLL METHODOLOGY SAMPLE SIZE: 2040 adults aged 18 years and above
SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION:
Sample distributed population proportion to size across the 8 provinces
FIELDWORK DATES: The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 27th August and 4th September 2007
METHOD:
All interviews carried out at household level
QUALITY CONTROLS: Field supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, www.steadman-group.com
"Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?" (Time series)
ODM-Kenya
60%
PaNu
NARC
KANU
FORD-K
ODM
50% 37% 30%
26%
230% 17%
23% 20% 17%
16%
18%
24% 19%
0%
1% 0% 0%
Sept-05
Oct-05
0% 0%
Nov-05
21%
19%
17%
17%
19%
14% 10%
2% 0% 0%
24%
24% 19%
1% 0% 0%
Dec-05
1% Mar-06
38%
33%
32%
30%
25%
36%
35%
21% 13%
10% 7%
2% 1%
6% 4% 1%
Jul-06
Oct-06
3% 1%
4% 1%
2% 1%
Dec-06
Mar-07
Sept-07
www.steadman-group.com
ODM remains the most popular single party and at a slightly higher level compared to March (45% now compared to 34% for ODM-Kenya then).
Total support for Narc and Narc-K, combined, has dropped significantly in the last three months, now being less than that of ODM for the first time (34% compared to 38%).
The number of those who do not identify with any party has increased from 13% to 21% during this same period.
www.steadman-group.com
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