La8_enriquegarcia Latin America
This document was uploaded by user and they confirmed that they have the permission to share it. If you are author or own the copyright of this book, please report to us by using this DMCA report form. Report DMCA
Overview
Download & View La8_enriquegarcia Latin America as PDF for free.
More details
- Words: 1,022
- Pages: 19
Latin Asia Business Forum 2008
Leveraging the Latin Asia Partnership in the Face of Global Challenges L. Enrique García President and CEO Corporación Andina de Fomento Singapore, September 22-2008
The region registered the largest economic expansion over the last 15 years, within a stable environment GDP Growth in Latin America
Average inflation rate in Latin America AVERAGE 2004-2007 5.4%
7
600
6
500 400
4
%
%
5
300
3 2
200
1
100
0
Employment rate
Indigency
Unemployment rate
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1990
2007p
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
2006
Poverty and extreme poverty in Latin America
Unemployment and employment rates in Latin America 55
1991
0
-1
Poverty
50
12
45 11
54
40 35
10 53 52 8
%
%
%
30 9
25 20 15
51
7
Source: CAF, IMF WEO Sept-07
2007p
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
6 1990
50
10 5 0 1980
1990
1997
1999
2002
2005
2006
2007p
The main factors behind the good economic performance were
•
Favorable external conditions
•
Solid macroeconomic fundamentals
•
Domestic demand recovery
Favorable external conditions (up to jul-07) Latin America: Exports growth
Latin America: Net capital inflows 120
250
12 Exports growth Commodities Index
200
8 %
150 6 100 4 50
2
80 USD billions
10
Private flows, net Official flows, net
100
60 40 20 0 -20 2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
450.000
400 Embi Latin
Pb
1999
Latin America: International Reserves
Embi + and Embi Latin Dynamics
350
1998
-40 1997
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
0 1992
0
Embi+
400.000
Short term debt / Reserves
350.000
1991-1994: 110% 2004-2007: 31%
300.000
300
250.000
250
200.000 150.000
200 100.000 50.000
Source: IMF, WEO Sept-08, Bloomberg, CEPAL
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0 1990
Ene-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Abr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Ago-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dic-06 Ene-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Abr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Ago-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dic-07 Ene-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Abr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Ago-08
150
Nonetheless, the region still faces significant challenges
Latin America is outperformed by other regions in terms of income per capita growth Per capita GDP, PPP 1960=100
1.400
1.200
East Asia
OECD
Latin America
China
1.000
800
600
400
200
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0
Source: World Bank (2007)
...and the region’s share in global trade and investment flows is declining Share in global exports 1953-2005
Capital flows to Emerging Economies (%) 1991-2004
14
Latin America América Latina y Caribe China China Southeast Asia Sureste Asiático 10
%
8
6
4
2
1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
0
Source: World Bank (2007), Talvi (2007)
Capital flows to Emerging Economies (%)
12
Emerging Asia
Latin America
Emerging Europe
Low savings Latin America: Saving 1990-2007
Saving (% GDP) 1990-2007
25
35
30
20 25
% GDP
% GDP
15
20
15
10 10
5
5
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0
Source: IMF WEO Sept-07, CAF
Latin America
OECD
East Asia
Low investment Latin America: Investment 1990-2007
Investment (% GDP) 1990-2007
22
35
30
21
25
% GDP
% GDP
20
19
18
20
15
10
5
17
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
16
Source: IMF WEO Sept-07, CAF
Latin America
OECD
East Asia
Low productivity hinders the expansion of potential output Labor productivity relative to USA (1960-2003)* Latin America
East Asia whitout China
Finland
Ireland
Labor Productivity / USA
2,80 2,50 2,20 1,90 1,60 1,30 1,00
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
0,70
*Labor productivity Index 1960=1
Source: Own calculations, Bosworth and Collins (2003)
A sudden deterioration of the international environment could negatively affect the economic performance of the region
Nonetheless, Latin America has medium and long term positive prospects that open a window of opportunity for Asia – Latin America relations
LAC-Asia Trade Exports to Asia (% of each country’s total exports)
Source: ECLAC (2008)
Imports from Asia (% of each country’s total imports)
Foreign Direct Investment in the Latin-American countries and Asia
Latin America FDI in Asia by country (2002)
Japan 0,3%
Malaysia Philippines 4,6% 7,5% Thailand 26,3%
Asia FDI in Latin America by country (2002)
South Korea 2,0% Hong Kong 10,0%
Taiwan (Province of China) 61,3%
Source: UNCTAD
FDI Stock : USD 43,3 billions by 2002
Taiwan (Province of China) 2,0%
Singapore 1,0% Rest 1,0%
Japan 84,0%
Source: UNCTAD
FDI Stock : USD 1.100 billions by 2002
Towards a comprehensive development agenda for the future Sustainable Quality Growth
Efficiency
Macroeconomic balance
Investment in all forms of capital
Stability Stability
Productivity
Equity
Social inclusion
Environmental sustainability
Main Challenges • Productive Transformation • Domestic Agenda: support competitiveness • Productive diversification and productivity growth • Physical Infrastructure • Education • New activities and innovation • Clusters’ Development • High quality Foreign Direct Investment • Institutional and regulatory strengthening
• Articulation of different international insertion strategies
CAF Input for strengthened ties with Asian countries
• Trade and investment promotion • Infrastructure and logistic • Joint ventures • Capital flows
Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America (IIRSA)
During the last decade, CAF has approved 56 operations of USD 4.553 million for the execution of 47 South American physical integration projects with a total investment exceeding USD 12.950 million.
http://www.caf.com
Leveraging the Latin Asia Partnership in the Face of Global Challenges L. Enrique García President and CEO Corporación Andina de Fomento Singapore, September 22-2008
The region registered the largest economic expansion over the last 15 years, within a stable environment GDP Growth in Latin America
Average inflation rate in Latin America AVERAGE 2004-2007 5.4%
7
600
6
500 400
4
%
%
5
300
3 2
200
1
100
0
Employment rate
Indigency
Unemployment rate
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1990
2007p
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
2006
Poverty and extreme poverty in Latin America
Unemployment and employment rates in Latin America 55
1991
0
-1
Poverty
50
12
45 11
54
40 35
10 53 52 8
%
%
%
30 9
25 20 15
51
7
Source: CAF, IMF WEO Sept-07
2007p
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
6 1990
50
10 5 0 1980
1990
1997
1999
2002
2005
2006
2007p
The main factors behind the good economic performance were
•
Favorable external conditions
•
Solid macroeconomic fundamentals
•
Domestic demand recovery
Favorable external conditions (up to jul-07) Latin America: Exports growth
Latin America: Net capital inflows 120
250
12 Exports growth Commodities Index
200
8 %
150 6 100 4 50
2
80 USD billions
10
Private flows, net Official flows, net
100
60 40 20 0 -20 2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
450.000
400 Embi Latin
Pb
1999
Latin America: International Reserves
Embi + and Embi Latin Dynamics
350
1998
-40 1997
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
0 1992
0
Embi+
400.000
Short term debt / Reserves
350.000
1991-1994: 110% 2004-2007: 31%
300.000
300
250.000
250
200.000 150.000
200 100.000 50.000
Source: IMF, WEO Sept-08, Bloomberg, CEPAL
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0 1990
Ene-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Abr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Ago-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dic-06 Ene-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Abr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Ago-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dic-07 Ene-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Abr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Ago-08
150
Nonetheless, the region still faces significant challenges
Latin America is outperformed by other regions in terms of income per capita growth Per capita GDP, PPP 1960=100
1.400
1.200
East Asia
OECD
Latin America
China
1.000
800
600
400
200
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0
Source: World Bank (2007)
...and the region’s share in global trade and investment flows is declining Share in global exports 1953-2005
Capital flows to Emerging Economies (%) 1991-2004
14
Latin America América Latina y Caribe China China Southeast Asia Sureste Asiático 10
%
8
6
4
2
1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
0
Source: World Bank (2007), Talvi (2007)
Capital flows to Emerging Economies (%)
12
Emerging Asia
Latin America
Emerging Europe
Low savings Latin America: Saving 1990-2007
Saving (% GDP) 1990-2007
25
35
30
20 25
% GDP
% GDP
15
20
15
10 10
5
5
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0
Source: IMF WEO Sept-07, CAF
Latin America
OECD
East Asia
Low investment Latin America: Investment 1990-2007
Investment (% GDP) 1990-2007
22
35
30
21
25
% GDP
% GDP
20
19
18
20
15
10
5
17
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
16
Source: IMF WEO Sept-07, CAF
Latin America
OECD
East Asia
Low productivity hinders the expansion of potential output Labor productivity relative to USA (1960-2003)* Latin America
East Asia whitout China
Finland
Ireland
Labor Productivity / USA
2,80 2,50 2,20 1,90 1,60 1,30 1,00
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
0,70
*Labor productivity Index 1960=1
Source: Own calculations, Bosworth and Collins (2003)
A sudden deterioration of the international environment could negatively affect the economic performance of the region
Nonetheless, Latin America has medium and long term positive prospects that open a window of opportunity for Asia – Latin America relations
LAC-Asia Trade Exports to Asia (% of each country’s total exports)
Source: ECLAC (2008)
Imports from Asia (% of each country’s total imports)
Foreign Direct Investment in the Latin-American countries and Asia
Latin America FDI in Asia by country (2002)
Japan 0,3%
Malaysia Philippines 4,6% 7,5% Thailand 26,3%
Asia FDI in Latin America by country (2002)
South Korea 2,0% Hong Kong 10,0%
Taiwan (Province of China) 61,3%
Source: UNCTAD
FDI Stock : USD 43,3 billions by 2002
Taiwan (Province of China) 2,0%
Singapore 1,0% Rest 1,0%
Japan 84,0%
Source: UNCTAD
FDI Stock : USD 1.100 billions by 2002
Towards a comprehensive development agenda for the future Sustainable Quality Growth
Efficiency
Macroeconomic balance
Investment in all forms of capital
Stability Stability
Productivity
Equity
Social inclusion
Environmental sustainability
Main Challenges • Productive Transformation • Domestic Agenda: support competitiveness • Productive diversification and productivity growth • Physical Infrastructure • Education • New activities and innovation • Clusters’ Development • High quality Foreign Direct Investment • Institutional and regulatory strengthening
• Articulation of different international insertion strategies
CAF Input for strengthened ties with Asian countries
• Trade and investment promotion • Infrastructure and logistic • Joint ventures • Capital flows
Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America (IIRSA)
During the last decade, CAF has approved 56 operations of USD 4.553 million for the execution of 47 South American physical integration projects with a total investment exceeding USD 12.950 million.
http://www.caf.com
Related Documents
Latin America
December 2019 24
Latin America
November 2019 19
Latin America @ Risk
October 2019 21
Latin America Health Watch
April 2020 6
Fdi In Latin America
June 2020 10