A Hedge Fund Liquidation Story Buy Pitch Halliburton Spinoff: KBR November 3rd James Cullen Portfolio Manager Boston College Investment Club
The BCIC Portfolio • Still Over-Diversified – In Sum, Need to Reduce Number of Holdings – New Buys Must Be Large Part of Portfolio
• But Fear is Widespread – Club Has Cash, Bargains Exist – Selectively Add Holdings
Proposal: Buy 600 shares = $8,700 (3.8%)
KBR Overview • A Spinoff of Halliburton • Diverse Construction, Engineering, and Services Company – Government and Infrastructure – Upstream/Downstream Energy – Services (Construction and Industrial) – Technology (Value-Added Refining) – Venture (Financing and Investing in Projects)
KBR by the Numbers • $10.6 Billion in Revenue (ttm) – P/S of 0.24x; 0.13x Including Cash
• $300 Million in Net Income (ttm) – P/E of 8.2x; 4.5x Including Cash
• $310 Million in “Owner Earnings” (ttm) • Backlog of $15.25 Billion
Revenues by Segment
• 78% of G&I Revenues (50% of Total) From US Government Ops – Middle East
Operating Earnings by Segment
• Smaller Reliance on G&I/US Government Middle East Ops for Earnings (24% of Operating Income)
Reasons to Buy • Strong, Cash-Rich Balance Sheet – Industry Consolidation, BE&K Purchase
• Massive Projects Financed by Oil Companies and Governments – Customer Base Still Has Liquidity
• Large Backlog & Legacy Projects • Favorable Risk/Reward
From the Conference Call, Part I • Withdrawal from Iraq? – Short-term Increase in Work – Longer-term, Decrease in Revenues Would Lag Troop Declines
• Energy Price Declines a Problem? – Helps on Input Costs as Well – Projects Still Economical – Balance Sheet Financers/National Oil Companies
From the Conference Call, Part II • Project Cancellations? – “We have not yet seen any indication that major projects in the international energy sectors are being cancelled or delayed…” • Bill Utt, President and CEO, KBR
• LogCAP III and IV – Afghanistan Work Remains Steady – Targeting 40% of IV Contract – KBR Historically Successful in Securing Work
• New Projects More Profitable
Risks to the KBR Long Thesis • Extreme Drop in Global CapEx – Upstream Energy or Downstream Refining – Attempting Project Diversification
• Wasting Cash on Balance Sheet • Very Competitive Bidding on Projects • World Peace …and other things we don’t know we don’t know
KBR Valuation: The Downside • Stock Around $14.50/Share – Back Out $6.65/Share in Cash About $8
• Net Tangible Assets – $9.50/Share -35% Downside
• Net Cash Position – $6.65/Share -55% Downside
KBR Valuation: The Upside • Earnings Estimates – Full Year 2008: $1.71 4.7x Earnings – Next Year 2009: $1.91 4.2x Earnings – 10x Earnings + Cash = $25/Share (+70%) – 15x Earnings + Cash = $34/Share (+135%)
• Book Value Basis – With ROE (Net of Cash) KBR Generates, About 2.5x Book Value = $36/Share (+150%)
Conclusion: Buy KBR • Excellent Balance Sheet • Global Scale, Top Player in Field • Desirable Customer Base – Resilient on Project Spending
• Very Inexpensive – Political Risk Seems Oversold
• Buy From Distressed Sellers