Job Ads July 2009

ANZ Economics and Markets Research 100 Queen Street Melbourne Vic 3000 www.anz.com

For release: 11:30am, 3 August 2009

Job advertisements still soft in July Highlights •

Job ads on the internet and in newspapers fell by 1.7% in July, taking the annual fall to 51.9%.

•

Newspaper job ads fell by 0.4%, while internet job ads dropped by 1.8%.

•

Job advertisements are showing tentative signs of stabilisation, which implies that business is no longer cutting back hiring intentions at the same pace.

Total job advertisements The ANZ Job Advertisements Series released today showed the total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet fell by 1.7% in July to a weekly average of 125,207 per week. This follows a fall of 6.7% in June. The total number of job advertisements in July was 51.9% lower than 12 months earlier. In trend terms, the total number of job advertisements fell by 3.5% in July, following a 4.6% fall in June, to be 52.6% lower than 12 months earlier. (See Table 1) Newspaper job advertisements The number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers decreased by 0.4% in July to an average of 8,162 per week. This follows a 0.9% rise in June. Newspaper advertisements are now 48.4% lower than in July 2008. In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements fell by 1.2% in July to be 51.4% lower than a year ago. (See Table 2) Newspaper job advertisements were mixed across the states in July. New South Wales (14.8%) experienced the largest fall in percentage terms, followed by the ACT (5.4%), the Northern Territory (3.3%), South Australia (2.1%) and Western Australia (0.9%). Meanwhile there were rises in Tasmania (19.9%), Victoria (15.4%) and Queensland (4.6%). (See Table 3) Internet job advertisements The number of internet job advertisements fell by 1.8% to average 117,046 per week, and were 52.1% lower than 12 months earlier. In trend terms, internet job advertisements fell by 3.6% in July to be 52.7% lower than in July 2008. (See Table 4) ANZ Head of Australian Economics Warren Hogan, said: •

ANZ job advertisements fell by 1.7% in July, marking the fifteenth consecutive monthly decline. The annual pace of decline continued to intensify to minus 51.9%, with job advertisements now down 54.2% since employment peaked in April 2008.

•

The data provides further evidence that demand for labour in the Australian economy is still wallowing at recessionary levels. So far, the difference between the current downturn and a recession however has been that weak demand for labour has not translated into Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ABN 11 005 357 522

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widespread labour shedding, with most employers choosing to cut back on staff working hours rather than reducing overall headcount. Indeed, the main driver of increasing unemployment has been rapid growth in the labour force due to strong population growth and high levels of participation. •

Somewhat encouragingly however, the trend pace of decline in job ads has eased for the past five months, a tentative sign that job ads may soon stabilise and that businesses may stop cutting back on hiring intentions.

•

This will unfortunately be insufficient to prevent job shedding in the near term, with employment expected to contract moderately through the remainder of 2009. ANZ expects employment to fall by 18,000 in July and the unemployment rate to rise to 6.1% when the ABS releases the Labour Force report on Thursday.

•

However we are increasingly optimistic that the pace of decline in employment will not be as severe as envisaged six months ago. Australian economic activity has been remarkably resilient in recent months, particularly for our largest employer, the retail sector. Furthermore, the recent rebound in business confidence and conditions suggests that employers may not be as pressed to cut back on labour (and investment) costs. We now expect the Australian unemployment rate to peak at around 7.5% in mid 2010.

•

Australia's economic recovery will remain very fragile until the unemployment rate peaks. Nevertheless, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens last week refused to rule out interest rate increases prior to this occurring. As such, we expect the RBA to keep rates on hold and to soften or remove its bias for further rate cuts when the Board meets on Tuesday.

For further comment (from 12:30pm onwards) contact:

For further comment contact:

For distribution enquiries contact:

Warren Hogan Head of Australian Economics Tel: 0414 498 675 Email: [email protected]

Riki Polygenis Economist

Vanessa O’Shaughnessy Media Relations Manager

Tel: (03) 9273 4060 Email: [email protected]

Tel: (03) 9273 5257 Email: [email protected]

Next release: August 2009

Expected release date: Monday 7 September 2009

Note for editors: For some of the newspapers surveyed, the ANZ Job Advertisements series counts the number of advertisement ‘bookings’. Each ‘booking’ may contain multiple advertisements. In addition, the ANZ series counts classified advertisements only, and does not include display advertisements. For these reasons, it would be incorrect to draw any inference or correlation from the ANZ series regarding advertising volumes or revenues from employment advertising in the newspapers surveyed. The ANZ series is not intended to, and should not, be used to assess the financial performance of any of the newspapers included in it.

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Job Advertisements series Monthly trend growth in newspaper job advertisements and employment % change from year earlier (seasonally adjusted)

80 % change from year earlier (seasonally adjusted) 60

Trend employment (right scale)

8.0 6.0

40

4.0

20 2.0 0 0.0 -20 -2.0

-40

Trend newspaper job ads, 6 months forward (left scale)

-60

-4.0 -6.0

-80 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Sources: ABS, The Labour Force (6202.0); ANZ.

Annual changes in newspaper and internet job advertisements 60

% change from year earlier (seasonally adjusted)

Internet

40 20

Total

0 -20

Newspapers

-40 -60 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05

06

Note: Seasonal adjustment now done by ABS. Source: ANZ.

07

08

09

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Job Advertisements series State and Territory newspaper data

Victoria

New South Wales 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

'000 per week

10

6 4 2 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Western Australia

Queensland 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0

'000 per week

8

'000 per week

5

'000 per week

4 3 2 1 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Tasmania

South Australia^ 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8

0.6

'000 per week

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Northern Territory

Australian Capital Territory 1.0

'000 per week

'000 per week

0.5

0.8

0.4

0.6

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.2

'000 per week

0.1 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Seasonally adjusted Source: ANZ.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050606 07 08 09

Trend

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Job Advertisements series Table 1: Average Total number of newspaper and internet job advertisements per week – Australia Original

Seasonally adjusted

Trend estimate (a)

P.c. change over Number 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

137,204 166,533 210,092 262,552

Jun 2007 Jul 2007 Aug 2007 Sep 2007 Oct 2007 Nov 2007 Dec 2007 Jan 2008 Feb 2008 Mar 2008 Apr 2008 May 2008 Jun 2008 Jul 2008 Aug 2008 Sep 2008 Oct 2008 Nov 2008 Dec 2008 Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009

250,515 252,442 263,987 270,391 278,910 271,413 240,616 222,019 270,110 271,263 269,473 273,731 266,272 266,384 262,902 264,056 251,150 220,670 170,288 147,176 162,334 150,555 134,927 139,470 129,392 128,159

Number

Month

Year

P.c. change over Number

Month

Year

243,683 248,133 251,818 255,582 259,600 263,802 267,652 270,237 271,344 271,018 269,581 267,430 264,488 259,860 252,562 242,277 229,101 213,379 196,065 178,927 163,404 151,254 141,382 133,782 127,593 123,183

2.4 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.7 -2.8 -4.1 -5.4 -6.9 -8.1 -8.7 -8.7 -7.4 -6.5 -5.4 -4.6 -3.5

34.3 34.9 34.8 34.4 33.7 32.9 31.6 29.2 25.6 21.2 16.6 12.3 8.5 4.7 0.3 -5.2 -11.7 -19.1 -26.7 -33.8 -39.8 -44.2 -47.6 -50.0 -51.8 -52.6

33.2 21.4 26.2 25.0 246,885 247,214 251,666 252,224 256,975 262,275 274,703 271,988 268,391 266,849 273,125 267,988 262,085 260,404 251,225 247,008 231,574 213,907 192,501 180,349 161,583 147,804 136,770 136,457 127,346 125,207

0.8 0.1 1.8 0.2 1.9 2.1 4.7 -1.0 -1.3 -0.6 2.4 -1.9 -2.2 -0.6 -3.5 -1.7 -6.2 -7.6 -10.0 -6.3 -10.4 -8.5 -7.5 -0.2 -6.7 -1.7

36.0 32.5 34.7 33.4 30.5 37.4 31.1 30.4 24.3 20.8 20.7 9.4 6.2 5.3 -0.2 -2.1 -9.9 -18.4 -29.9 -33.7 -39.8 -44.6 -49.9 -49.1 -51.4 -51.9

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Job Advertisements series Table 2: Average number of newspaper job advertisements per week – Australia Trend estimate (a)

Seasonally adjusted

Original

P.c. change over Number

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

21,866 20,450 20,024 19,273

Jun 2007 Jul 2007 Aug 2007 Sep 2007 Oct 2007 Nov 2007 Dec 2007 Jan 2008 Feb 2008 Mar 2008 Apr 2008 May 2008 Jun 2008 Jul 2008 Aug 2008 Sep 2008 Oct 2008 Nov 2008 Dec 2008 Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009

19,531 20,282 21,960 22,687 23,356 21,835 11,986 18,412 21,578 17,526 18,099 17,522 16,033 15,858 16,293 17,035 15,284 12,520 5,781 10,917 9,608 8,466 7,174 8,334 7,906 8,183

Number

Month

Year

P.c. change over Number

Month

Year

20,223 20,287 20,370 20,476 20,477 20,337 20,061 19,666 19,179 18,620 18,031 17,452 16,861 16,135 15,252 14,279 13,232 12,151 11,008 9,965 9,131 8,615 8,274 8,065 7,945 7,848

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 -0.7 -1.4 -2.0 -2.5 -2.9 -3.2 -3.2 -3.4 -4.3 -5.5 -6.4 -7.3 -8.2 -9.4 -9.5 -8.4 -5.7 -4.0 -2.5 -1.5 -1.2

0.6 1.3 2.1 2.8 2.9 2.0 0.3 -1.9 -4.5 -7.4 -10.5 -13.5 -16.6 -20.5 -25.1 -30.3 -35.4 -40.3 -45.1 -49.3 -52.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -52.9 -51.4

1.5 -6.5 -2.1 -3.7 20,240 20,204 20,391 20,265 20,336 20,431 21,059 19,219 19,129 17,087 19,942 17,099 16,614 15,810 15,147 15,223 13,294 11,719 10,140 11,391 8,524 7,958 8,203 8,123 8,192 8,162

-0.7 -0.2 0.9 -0.6 0.4 0.5 3.1 -8.7 -0.5 -10.7 16.7 -14.3 -2.8 -4.8 -4.2 0.5 -12.7 -11.8 -13.5 12.3 -25.2 -6.6 3.1 -1.0 0.9 -0.4

0.2 0.5 3.3 2.0 2.0 3.8 3.5 -4.8 -3.7 -15.1 -0.3 -16.1 -17.9 -21.7 -25.7 -24.9 -34.6 -42.6 -51.8 -40.7 -55.4 -53.4 -58.9 -52.5 -50.7 -48.4

(a) The trend estimates have been derived by applying a 13-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted series. While this smoothing technique enables estimates to be produced for the latest month, it does result in revisions to the most recent six months as additional observations become available.

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Job Advertisements series Table 3: Average number of newspaper job advertisements per week - States and Territories Seasonally adjusted P.c. change over -

Original

Trend estimate (a) P.c. change over -

Number

Number

Month

Year

Number

Month

Year

New South Wales Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009

2,735 2,386 2,027 2,370 2,225 1,947

2,414 2,191 2,342 2,306 2,278 1,941

-25.8 -9.2 6.9 -1.5 -1.2 -14.8

-52.8 -54.9 -54.8 -49.4 -48.0 -54.6

2,597 2,449 2,321 2,219 2,134 2,052

-6.8 -5.7 -5.2 -4.4 -3.8 -3.8

-49.8 -50.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1

Victoria Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009

2,065 1,672 1,426 1,723 1,676 2,015

1,798 1,645 1,622 1,616 1,728 1,995

-18.3 -8.5 -1.4 -0.4 7.0 15.4

-54.9 -55.8 -60.9 -56.3 -50.5 -38.1

1,819 1,731 1,695 1,695 1,722 1,752

-8.6 -4.9 -2.1 0.0 1.6 1.7

-54.5 -56.0 -55.8 -54.1 -51.2 -47.3

Queensland Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009

1,040 937 756 838 826 908

964 891 894 850 860 899

-26.5 -7.5 0.3 -4.9 1.2 4.6

-64.1 -63.8 -68.2 -64.0 -61.7 -57.7

1,032 956 902 867 845 831

-10.5 -7.4 -5.6 -3.9 -2.6 -1.6

-62.6 -63.9 -64.3 -64.1 -63.2 -61.5

South Australia Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009

1,021 928 779 926 846 870

907 863 868 936 891 872

-22.2 -4.9 0.7 7.8 -4.9 -2.1

-48.8 -45.8 -51.6 -42.2 -45.1 -41.3

962 920 897 883 876 865

-7.6 -4.4 -2.5 -1.5 -0.9 -1.2

-45.1 -46.5 -46.5 -46.1 -45.4 -44.7

The above data are based on information provided by the following newspapers: The Sydney Morning Herald and The Daily Telegraph (NSW); The Age and The Herald-Sun (Victoria); The Courier-Mail (Queensland); and The Advertiser (South Australia).

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Job Advertisements series Average number of newspaper job advertisements per week - States and Territories Seasonally adjusted P.c. change over -

Original

Trend estimate (a) P.c. change over -

Number

Number

Month

Year

Number

Month

Year

1,533 1,414 1,135 1,252 1,211 1,254

1,362 1,347 1,250 1,240 1,284 1,272

-29.8 -1.1 -7.1 -0.8 3.6 -0.9

-64.2 -62.1 -66.2 -62.6 -61.1 -59.1

1,505 1,381 1,303 1,254 1,225 1,200

-12.5 -8.3 -5.6 -3.7 -2.3 -2.0

-60.0 -62.1 -63.0 -63.3 -63.0 -62.5

Tasmania Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009

413 349 345 434 363 459

361 337 396 446 392 470

-19.5 -6.7 17.7 12.5 -12.2 19.9

-29.2 -25.0 -20.6 -9.7 -29.0 -16.3

394 388 393 404 419 434

-5.4 -1.7 1.3 3.0 3.5 3.7

-21.1 -21.3 -21.0 -21.0 -21.2 -20.3

ACT Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009

582 522 435 499 468 456

481 486 482 482 483 457

-27.4 1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.3 -5.4

-41.0 -33.5 -34.6 -31.2 -27.8 -32.6

526 507 491 477 467 456

-3.9 -3.5 -3.3 -2.7 -2.1 -2.5

-36.4 -35.0 -33.5 -32.2 -31.7 -32.1

Northern Territory Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009

220 260 270 292 291 275

215 256 280 268 273 264

-33.8 19.2 9.3 -4.5 2.2 -3.3

-50.8 -16.1 -33.1 -32.2 -28.3 -29.8

274 266 263 264 265 267

-5.6 -3.1 -1.0 0.2 0.4 1.0

-32.1 -32.8 -32.0 -30.9 -29.9 -28.4

Western Australia Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009

The above data are based on information provided by the following newspapers: The West Australian (Western Australia); The Mercury, The Examiner and The Advocate (Tasmania); The Canberra Times (Australian Capital Territory); and The NT News (Northern Territory).

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Job Advertisements series Table 4: Average number of internet job advertisements per week – Australia Original

Seasonally adjusted

Trend estimate (a)

P.c. change over Number 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

115,338 146,084 190,068 243,279

Jun 2007 Jul 2007 Aug 2007 Sep 2007 Oct 2007 Nov 2007 Dec 2007 Jan 2008 Feb 2008 Mar 2008 Apr 2008 May 2008 Jun 2008 Jul 2008 Aug 2008 Sep 2008 Oct 2008 Nov 2008 Dec 2008 Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009

230,984 232,160 242,027 247,704 255,555 249,578 228,630 203,607 248,532 253,737 251,374 256,208 250,239 250,527 246,609 247,021 235,866 208,150 164,507 136,259 152,726 142,089 127,754 131,136 121,486 119,976

Number

Month

Year

P.c. change over Number

Month

Year

223,460 227,846 231,448 235,106 239,123 243,465 247,591 250,571 252,165 252,398 251,550 249,977 247,627 243,725 237,310 227,998 215,869 201,227 185,057 168,963 154,273 142,639 133,108 125,717 119,648 115,336

2.6 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.6 -2.6 -3.9 -5.3 -6.8 -8.0 -8.7 -8.7 -7.5 -6.7 -5.6 -4.8 -3.6

38.5 39.1 38.8 38.1 37.3 36.4 35.1 32.5 28.7 24.1 19.2 14.7 10.8 7.0 2.5 -3.0 -9.7 -17.3 -25.3 -32.6 -38.8 -43.5 -47.1 -49.7 -51.7 -52.7

41.6 26.7 30.1 28.0 226,646 227,011 231,275 231,959 236,638 241,843 253,644 252,769 249,262 249,762 253,183 250,889 245,470 244,594 236,079 231,785 218,279 202,188 182,361 168,959 153,059 139,846 128,567 128,334 119,154 117,046

0.9 0.2 1.9 0.3 2.0 2.2 4.9 -0.3 -1.4 0.2 1.4 -0.9 -2.2 -0.4 -3.5 -1.8 -5.8 -7.4 -9.8 -7.3 -9.4 -8.6 -8.1 -0.2 -7.2 -1.8

40.5 36.4 38.5 37.1 33.7 41.3 34.0 34.1 27.1 24.4 22.7 11.7 8.3 7.7 2.1 -0.1 -7.8 -16.4 -28.1 -33.2 -38.6 -44.0 -49.2 -48.8 -51.5 -52.1

The internet series counts the average number of advertisements carried by each of the sites contributing to the series on the same day of each week in the month indicated. The day (which is not necessarily the same for each site) is selected by the site operator as broadly representative of its activity levels. The above data are based on information provided by the operators of the following sites: Seek.com.au; Hudson Global Resources; and the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR) Australian Job Search site, jobsearch.gov.au.

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