Is Zimbabwe A Failed State?

Victor Ben Turner INAF-450 10 Dec. 08 Zimbabwe: A Failed State? Is Zimbabwe a failed state? I will argue that it clearly is, explain why, and then very briefly present some reasons why it might not be considered as such. But first, one must define what a "failed state" is. There are four readily available definitions for the term, from Max Weber, the Crisis States Research Centre, Paul Collier (development economist), and the Fund for Peace. The Max Weber Definition Max Weber defined a successful state as one that has a monopoly on the legitimate use of violence, in his work Politics as a Vocation, published in 1919. The CSRC Definition The Crisis States Research Centre has conducted one stage of research and is currently in its second; it has differentiated between "fragile", "crisis", and "failed" states. CSRC's definition for a failed state states, "We define a “failed state” as a condition of “state collapse” – e.g., a state that can no longer perform its basic security, and development functions and that has no effective control over its territory and borders. A failed state is one that can no longer reproduce the conditions for its own existence. This term is used in very contradictory ways in the policy community (for instance, there is a tendency to label a “poorly performing” state as “failed” – a tendency we reject). The opposite of a “failed state” is an “enduring state” and the absolute dividing line between these two conditions is difficult to ascertain at the margins. Even in a failed state, some elements of the state, such as local state organisations, might continue to exist."1

The CSRC contrasts the failed state with an enduring state, a crisis state with a resilient state, and a fragile state with a stable state. The key distinctions between the three are that fragile states have institutions that are put under chronic stress, a crisis state is currently being severely tested by a crisis such as AIDS/HIV or by a political challenge, and a failed state has collapsed at many of its important levels.

The Paul Collier Definition

1

Crisis States Research Centre, “Crisis, Fragile and Failed States Definitions used by the CSRC”. Crisisstates.com, http://www.crisisstates.com/download/drc/FailedState.pdf

Collier classifies states under statistically-based buckets as he is working from an economic point of view seeking to isolate key factors using statistical regressions, to make development more impactful. Collier says in his much lauded and discussed book, The Bottom Billion, “For want of a better term I will call those low-income countries that are below the cutoff for governance and economic policies "failing states." This is the sort of popular and emotive term that I do not usually like to use, but in this case I think it has some rationale. Such states are failing in two senses. Most directly, they are failing their citizens. Populations in most of the low-income world live in countries that are growing rapidly, whereas these countries are stagnating.”2

Getting the definition right is nevertheless tricky. Not all low-income states that fall below our cutoff have been failing states. For a number of countries, the rating crashed and then rapidly rebounded as policies changed relatively rapidly. Such temporary crashes are not of interest to us. It is surely much easier to restore a country to reasonable policies if it has only just abandoned them than if it has been stuck with bad policies for a long time. Indeed, the temporary crashes we observe in the data may sometimes be spurious assessments that are subsequently reversed. We therefore only count the country as a failing state if the rating has stayed low for a continuous period of four years. These criteria give us lists of states that can be classified as failing, year by year. To show you what they mean in practice, recent failing states include Angola, the Central African Republic, Haiti, Liberia, Sudan, the Solomon Islands, Somalia, and Zimbabwe. It would surely be difficult to argue with any of these assessments. The Democratic Republic of the Congo hovers around the borderline. If this is the borderline, you know that the cutoff is low. More than three-quarters of the population of the bottom billion live in countries that have at some time been failing states by this definition. Collier sees his classification as being extremely generous and not inclusive of countries not belonging to the infamous category of failed states. Collier also discusses in The Bottom Billion that there are significant aid and funding problems with taking "failed state" status lightly; if a country is labeled as a failed state in the midst of a recovery, it will not attract outside foreign direct investment or foreign aid donor money until after another year of results, so a country may get caught in the lag of budgets and rankings. The Fund for Peace and the Failed States Index, Published in Foreign Policy Magazine The Failed State Index ranks countries based on twelve indicators, broken up into the three categories of social, economic, and political:

2

Collier, Paul, The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It. Oxford University Press, USA, 27 Apr. 07. p.68.

Social Indicators • Mounting Demographic Pressures • Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies • Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia • Chronic and Sustained Human Flight Economic Indicators • Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines • Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline Political Indicators • Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State • Progressive Deterioration of Public Services • Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights • Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State" • Rise of Factionalized Elites • Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors

This is a transparent, easy to quantify way to rank countries. Each country gets a numerical ranking from 1.0 to 10.0 and then each indicator is added up and averaged to get the total score.3 Background on Recent Zimbabwe Events Zimbabwe currently barely shudders beneath the vicious, violent, and oppressive regime of Robert Mugabe, a "big man" whose presence has defined the nation and the region of southern Africa. Mugabe's party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, has won every election since Zimbabwe became independent. Mugabe has amended the Constitution to become president, and has attempted to rig elections, extend his term limits, and kill or threaten his political opponents. Still, Mugabe almost lost the most recent election to Morgan Tsvangirai and was forced to enter a nominal power-sharing agreement in which he still maintained his security apparatus, all that matters in Zimbabwe at this point in time. In 2007, Mugabe's security forces went after journalists covering his corrupt regime and were it not for brave journalists who snuck video cameras and recorders in, much of the internal intimidation and violence undertaken would not have been reported to the outside world.4 At the same time, Mugabe's government has gone bankrupt as white-collar professionals, refugees, and business have fled the country as quickly as possible while he must still pay his military and police men. Zimbabwe is undergoing 3

Fund for Peace, “Failed States Index”. Fundforpeace.org, 2008, http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=99&Itemid= 140

4

UN Office for the Coordination of Human Affairs, “Zimbabwe: Journalists Feel the Heat”. Allafrica.com, 20 Jun. 08, http://allafrica.com/stories/200806201041.html

textbook-definition hyperinflation of its currency, the Zimbabwean dollar, to upwards of 11 million percent.5 Food and medical supplies have been scarce within the country, leading to a recent outbreak of cholera, the shutdown of hospitals, and collapse of state institutions.6 So Has Zimbabwe Failed? The power-sharing agreement recently signed has been and will be a farce to placate international observers. Robert Mugabe must go. It is clear that nothing in Zimbabwe is operating sustainably right now, and by any measure, Zimbabwe is failing. What are these measures? At this point, it would be best to use the Failed States Index's indicators. (Zimbabwe's profile can be found at http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view &id=296&Itemid=458 7) Socially, Zimbabwe's population is growing at a rate of 0.8% and the average life expectancy is only 42.7 years. HIV/AIDS prevalence is at about 18%. Zimbabwe's population is highly unstable, expanding, young, and volatile.8 The World Health Organization has reported up to 60,000 people might be infected by cholera as a result of the crisis.9 Mugabe's rule has been seen to be illegitimate by a large part of the country and therefore there is a power struggle kept in check only by Mugabe's security forces. Approximately 3 million Zimbabweans have fled the country.10 Economically, there is a large divide between Mugabe's regime and the majority of Zimbabwe's remaining population, made up of whoever could not or would not leave the country. The country has experienced massive recession of economic growth and hyperinflation while businesses have largely ceased to operate even in Harare. Politically, Mugabe runs a de facto dictatorship of the country, holding all those within its borders hostage without any remorse. Health, business, and legal institutions have been co-opted and circumvented such that they are now useless outside of Mugabe's office. The Constitution is hardly enforced, and without any external pressure on Zimbabwe, the power-sharing agreement would not have happened in the first place. 5

CNN, “Inflation in Zimbabwe hits 11,200,000 percent”. Cnn.com, 19 Aug. 08, http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/08/19/zimbabwe.inflation/index.html 6 Shaw, Angus, Associated Press, “Zimbabwe declares national health emergency.” News.yahoo.com, 04 Dec. 08, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081204/ap_on_re_af/af_zimbabwe;_ylt=AukwLBC_GNgHVJEQ7hQboMO 96Q8F 7 The Fund for Peace, “Zimbabwe”. Fundforpeace.org, http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=296&Itemid=458 8 World Bank, “Zimbabwe 0 Data and Statistics”. Worldbank.org, http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/ZIMBABWEEXTN/0,,men uPK:375762~pagePK:141132~piPK:141109~theSitePK:375736,00.html 9 Al-Jazeera, “WHO: Zimbabwe cholera may worsen”. English.aljazeera.net, 10 Dec. 08, http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2008/12/2008129164637857289.html 10 Blair, David, Telegraph, “How Zimbabwe’s refugees help Robert Mugabe”. Telegraph.co.uk, 9 Apr. 08, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1584269/How-Zimbabwe%27s-refugees-help-RobertMugabe.html

So yes, Zimbabwe can easily be classified as a failed state. Furthermore, it risks an explosion of violence and factionalization once Mugabe can no longer fund his security apparatus. Foreign involvement will probably be needed to provide internal security and political negotiation in the aftermath, more indicators of a failed state. Why Zimbabwe May Not Be a Failed State and Conclusion Little can be said to make a case that Zimbabwe is not a failed state. The recent election at least finally showed that the unrest towards Mugabe was so hard to contain that not even rigged elections would help him. If any sort of semi-legitimate person would be elected or installed in Mugabe's place, it may be possible to stand up state institutions quickly, not having Collier's defined longstanding absence of institutions. Zimbabwe does have a memory of a functioning, growing economy and government, and if it can tap into that, then much can be done to re-dress the situation politically as well. Zimbabwe is also recognized by its neighbors still as a sovereign state. But any progress insists on Mugabe's departure first, and the longer the political crisis continues, the further and further away a recovery will start. Under many different definitions of what constitutes a “failed state”, from inability to exert monopoly power of violence or to institutional failure, Zimbabwe easily qualifies. It is likely that Zimbabwe has not seen the worst yet.