Iri Pakistan Public Opinion Survey 2007

IRI Index I d Pakistan Public Opinion Survey August 29 – September 13, 2007

Survey Methodology • In-person, in-home interview • National i l representative i sample l off adult d l resident of Pakistan. • n = 4,009 • Conducted between August g 29, 9, and September 13, 2007 • Margin of error ±1.58% ±1 58% overall • Data collected by Socio Economic Development Consultants (SEDCO)

Survey Methodology •

A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified into four provinces. In the second stage, the sample was further stratified into districts within each province by rural and urban categories. In the third stage each district was further stratified by Union Councils.

•

The sample was distributed at the provincial level, rural and urban, in all four provinces of Pakistan (except for the Federally Administrative Tribal Areas (FATA), Chitral and Kohistan). The sample was then post-weighted to make it proportionate to national representation by province.

•

g y criteria is age, g , which for this surveyy is 18 yyears and above. The eligibility

•

The response rate was just over 90 percent.

•

The interview teams comprised both of male and females; the female respondents were interviewed by female interviewers and male respondents by male interviewers. interviewers

•

Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within the randomly selected household. The right hand method was used to select every third household in localities selected through area probability sample.

•

The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS Male 58% Female 42% Urban 36% Rural 64% Age Up to 25: 28% 26-35: 40% 36-50: 26% 50+: 6% Education Illiterate 16% Primary 14% Middle 18% Matric 29% 4 Intermediate 14% Graduate 7% MA/Prof’l 2%

Monthly Household Income Up to Rs 3,000 7% Rs 3,001 – 10,000 50% Rs 10,001 – 15,000 21% Rs 15,001 – 25,000 10% > Rs 25,000 3% Language U d 10% Urdu % Punjabi 45% Pashto 14% Sindhi 14% Seraiki 10% Hindko 3% Balochi 2% Other 2%

ISSUES

When it come to casting your vote in the next election, which of these one issues determine which party you vote for? (O (Open E Ended) d d) 37%

Inflation

20%

Unemployment p y

11%

Poverty

3%

Terrorism El t i it Electricity

1%

Water

1% 3%

Education Corruption

1% 10%

Law and Order Democratic reforms

2%

Islamization

2%

Development

0%

1% 10%

20%

30%

40%

Agree or Disagree? Religious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan

74%

Sept-07

64%

June-07

0%

21%

20%

21%

40% Agree

60% Disagree

DK/NR

80%

5%

16%

100%

Agree or Disagree?

The Taliban and Al Qaida operating in Waziristan is a serious problem

0%

57%

20%

33%

40%

Agree

60%

Disagree

80% DK/NR

10%

100%

Agree or disagree? The Army should have no role in civilian government

Sept-07

62%

June-07

30%

55%

0%

20%

40%

40% Agree

60%

Disagree

DK/NR

80%

7%

5%

100%

Agree or disagree? Musharraf should resign as Army Chief of Staff

76% Agree Sept-07

6% 5%

70%

62% Agree A

June-07

0%

41%

20% Strongly agree

40% Disagree

15%

3%

33% Disagree Di

21%

Agree

20% Disagree Di

13%

60%

20%

80%

Strongly disagree

5%

100% DK/NA

Agree or Disagree? Musharraf should remain as Army Chief of Staff ff iin order d to promote stability bili

7%

17% Agree Disagree g DK/NR

76%

Would you support or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow Musharraf to remain as both President and Army Chief of Staff?

23% Support pp

8%

0%

15%

68% Oppose pp

12%

20% Strongly support

56%

40% Support

60% Oppose

9%

80%

Strongly oppose

100% DK/NA

Agree or Disagree? The government should declare an emergency. emergency

9%

8% Agree Disagree g DK/NR

83%

Musharraf M h f and d Bhutto Deal

Should Benazir Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf make a deal? 60% 50%

47%

49%

43%

40%

35%

36%

37% Feb-07 June-07 Sept 07 Sept-07

30% 21% % 20%

16% 16%

10% 0% Yes

No

DK/NR

Should Bhutto and Musharraf make a deal? PPPP voters (n (n=11,123) 123) and PML PML-Q Q voters (n (n=641) 641) 70%

63%

58% 5

58% 8%

60%

53%

50% 40%

31%

37% 31%

29%

30% 20% 10% 0% PPPP Voters

PML-Q Voters

Yes-June No-June Yes-Sept No-Sept

What would you prefer Benazir Bhutto and the PPPP do, join APDM or make a deal with Musharraf h f and d PML-Q ? 60% 50%

48% 8%

40% 29%

30%

17%

20% 7%

10% 0% Join APDM

Make a deal with Musharraf and PML-Q

Neither

DK/NR

What would you prefer Bhutto and PPPP do, join APDM or make a deal with Musharraf and PML-Q ? PPPP voters (n=1,123) ( ) 47%

50% 45%

41%

40% 35% Join APDM Make a deal Neither DK/NR

30% 25% % 20% 15%

7%

10% 5%

3%

0% PPPP Voters

Why do you believe that Bhutto is considering a deal with President Musharraf, to bring democracy to Pakistan or improve her personal situation ? 47%

50% 45% 40% 35% 30%

27%

26%

25% 20% 15% % 10% 5% 0% Bring democracy to Pakistan

Improve personal situation

DK/NR

Why do you believe that Bhutto is considering a deal with Musharraf, to bring democracy to Pakistan or improve her personal situation? PPPP voters (n=1 (n=1,123) 123) 50%

47%

% 45% 40% 35% 30%

27%

26%

Improve p personal p situation

DK/NR /

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% g democracy y to Bring Pakistan

Would you like Benazir Bhutto more or less than you do now if she made a deal with President Musharraf?

14% Less

65% More 31%

PPP voters n=1123

34%

16%

0%

22%

20%

Like much more Like little less

7% 7% 7%

34% Less

38% More All voters

14%

16%

40% Like little more Like much less

13%

60%

21%

80%

No change DK/NR

12%

100%

N ti National lM Mood d

Do you think that Pakistan is heading in the right direction or in the wrong g direction? 80%

73%

% 70% 60% 50% 40%

59% 46%

44% 43%

38%

44% % 43% 33% 33

30% 20%

19%

10% 0% June-06 Poll

Sept-06 Poll

Right Direction

Feb-07 Poll

June-07 Poll

Wrong Direction

Sept-07 Poll

In the past year, has your personal economic situation improved, p , worsened or stayed y the same? 60%

56%

50% 40% 30%

35% 34%

34% % 33% 30%

29%

24%

20%

19% 10% 0%

4% Feb-07 Poll Better

3%

1%

June-07 Poll Worse

Sept-07 Poll Same

DK/NR

Thinking about next year do you expect the economic situation in Pakistan to g get better,, get g worse or stayy the same? 45% 40% 35% 30% 25%

41% % 31% 30% 28%

10%

13%

34% 30% 3

30% 3

28% 8% 21%

20% 15%

34%

22% 20%

18%

15% 5

18%

31% 27%

18%

14%

5% % 0% June-06 Poll Better

Sept-06 Poll

Feb-07 Poll

Worse

June-07 Poll Same

Sept-07 Poll DK/NR

Agree or Disagree? I feel more secure this year than I did last year

12% 65%

Sept 07

23%

6% 56%

June 07

39%

0%

20% Agree

40% Disagree

60% DK/NR

80%

In your opinion how has the government performed on the issues that are important to you? Very good

Good

Poor

Very poor

DK/NR

3% 11%

22% Good

38% 11%

75% Poor 37%

In your opinion, how has the government performed on the issues most important p to yyou? 75%

80% % 70% 60%

61%

58%

34%

38%

50% 40% 30% 20%

22%

10% 5%

4%

0% Feb-07 Poll Good

3%

June-07 Poll Poor

Sept-07 Poll DK/NR

Would you say that the ruling coalition has done a good enough g g jjob to deserve re-election? 80%

73%

% 70% 60%

58%

50% 40% 30%

37% 35%

37% 28%

36% 28%

20%

42% 33% % 25%

10%

34% 19% 9% %

8%

0% June-06 Poll Yes

Sept-06 Poll

Feb-07 Poll No

June-07 Poll

Sept-07 Poll

DK/NR

RATINGS

Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Musharraf is doing? g 70% 60%

63% 3

60%

62% 54%

50%

49%

40%

34%

30%

23% %

22%

26% 21%

20% 10% 0% June 06 Poll

Sept-06 Poll

Approve

Feb-07 Poll Disapprove

June-07 Poll

Sept-07 Poll

In 1999, President Musharraf laid out a Seven Point Agenda for the country, which outlined the areas he would focus on d i his during hi presidency. id How H would ld you rate t th the P President’s id t’ achievements on the following points?

Ensuring swift and across the board accountability

48%

Dev olution of power to the grassroots lev el

18%

50% %

Depoliticizing state institutions

47%

Ensuring g law and order and dispensing speedy justice

48%

Rev iv ing the econom y and restoring inv estor confidence

47%

46% 6% 23% 18% 41%

45%

Strengthening the Federation Rebuilding national confidence and m orale

21%

53% 0%

10%

20%

30%

Good June-07

33% 40%

50%

60%

Good Sept-07

70%

80%

90%

100%

Some people have called for the resignation of President Musharraf. Do you think he should resign? 80% 70%

63%

70%

60% 50% Jun-07 Sept-07

40% 25% %

30%

19%

20%

8%

10%

8%

5%

4%

0% Yes

No

Maybe

DK/NR

Who do you believe can best steer the country out of the present crisis, crisis Pervez Musharraf or Benazir Bhutto? 45% 45 40% 35%

42%

30% 25% 20% 15%

33%

30%

27% 7 19%

% 23%

10% 5% 0%

M h Musharraf f

Bh tt Bhutto

DK/NR

Jun-07 Sept-07

Which one leader do you think can best handle the problems facing p g Pakistan? 40%

36% 3

35% 30%

28% 23%

25% 20% 15%

24% 21%

16%

14%

0% June-06 Poll

4% 3% 0% Sept-06 Poll

32%

32%

26%

27%

28%

21% 17%

15%

10% 5% 0%

4% 3%

Bhutto Qazi Hussain

6% 4% 2% %

3% Feb-07 Poll

Musharraf Imran Khan

June-07 Poll

Nawaz Altaf Hussein

5% 3% 1% Sept-07 Poll Fazal-ur Rehman

Best Leader byy Province 70% 60%

65% 55%

50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

30%

27% 20% 14%

19% 17% 4%3% 1%0%

11% 5% 4% 2%4% 1%

15% % 7% 4%

0% Punjab Bhutto Imran Khan Altaf Hussein

Sindh

NWFP

Musharraf Qazi Hussain

13% 10% 0%

4%

16%

1%

1%

Balochistan Nawaz Sharif Fazal-ur-Rehman

How would you rate each of the following political personalities? Benazir Bhutto Qazi Hussain Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman

Altaf Hussain Pervez Musharraf

Nawaz Sharif Imran Khan

54% 51% 45% 38%

45% 40%

46% 6% 46%

40% 35%

31% 3

Jun-06

19% % 13% 11%

Sep-06

36%

27%

22% 18% 18% 16% 16%

50%

53%

17% 15% % 14%

18% 16%

9%

7%

Feb-07

Jun-07

22% 21% 11% 9% 6% Sept-07

Agree or Disagree? I would like President Musharraf more than I do now if h he resigned i d ffrom the h Army 39% Agree g

18%

0%

20% Strongly agree

21%

48% Disagree

15%

40% 4 Agree

33%

60% Disagree

80%

14%

100%

Strongly disagree

DK/NR

Sep-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07

Election Commission C n

Mediia

Politica al Parties s

Courtts

Polic ce

Arm my

Opposition n

Governmen G nt

Nationa al Assemblly

13 3%

49% 47% 49% 42%

41%

68% 67%

62% 6

55% 49% 50%

51%

82% % 80% % 80% %

% 82% % 80%

77%

70%

65%

60 0%

55%

48% 49% 46%

41%

34% % 28% 28%

24%

42%

64% 57% % 64%

How would you rate each of the following institutions?

ELECTIONS

Do you support the re-election of President Musharraf to another term? 50% Support 40% Oppose Feb-07 poll

27%

23%

33% Support June-07 poll

21%

12%

23% Support Sept-07 poll

0%

16%

Strongly support

Support

29%

10%

64% Oppose

15%

49%

3%

74% Oppose

7% 12%

20%

11%

62%

40% Oppose

60%

3%

80%

Strongly oppose

DK/NA

100%

Musharraf Re-election by Province Punjab

Sindh

NWFP

Balochistan 0%

22%

76%

27%

68%

22%

77%

17%

77% 20%

40% Support

60% Oppose

80%

100%

Agree or disagree? President Musharraf should stand for re-election before the current assemblies 43% Agree Feb 07 Poll

20%

48% Disagree

23%

19%

34% Agree June 07 Poll

16%

18%

29%

9%

62% Disagree 22%

40%

4%

20% Agree 74% Disagree Sept 07 Poll o

13%

0%

7% 12%

20% Strongly Agree

62%

40% Agree

60% Disagree

6%

80% Strongly Disagree

100% DK/NR

Thinking about President Musharraf, would you support his re re-election election if…..? if ? Musharraf stands for reelection before the current assemblies bli and d does not resign from the Army

Musharraf stands for rere election before the current assemblies but resigns from the Army first Musharraf resigns from the Army, first holds parlimentary elections, then stands for reelection before the new assemblies

0%

20% %

78% 8%

23%

4% %

5%

72%

39%

50%

20%

40%

Support

60% Oppose

11%

80% DK/NR

100%

Are you registered to vote?

17% 5% Yes No DK/NR

78%

If not, why are you not registered to vote? (n 200) (n=200) 35%

Not on voter list

26%

Do not have ID card

12%

Not interested in politics

Other

7%

20%

NR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

If elections for national assembly were held this weekend how likely is it that you would vote? 100% 90% 80%

5% 13%

6% 17%

8% 11% %

1% 5%

1% 6%

94%

93%

Jun-07

Sept-07

70% 60% 50% 40%

78%

82%

82%

Jun-06

Sept-06

Feb-07

30% 20% 10% 0%

Very/Somewhat

Not very/Not at all

DK/NR

If unlikely, why wouldn’t you vote? (n 241) (n=241) 22%

No use casting vote N capable No bl leader l d or party

6% 33%

Do not have ID card Women not allowed to vote

5%

Not interested in politics

5% % 10%

Not on voters list

5%

Other DK

1% 14%

NR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

If the elections for National Assembly were held next week,, for which party p y would yyou vote? 40%

36%

35% 30% 25% 20% 15%

32% 27% 22% % 22% 14%

26% 4 24% 19% 15%

5% 0%

Sept 06 Poll

23% 19%

5% 3% 2%

10% 5% 4% 2%

Feb 07 Poll

June 07 Poll

10%

5% 3% 1%

28%

PPPP PML-N Pakistan Tehreek Tehreek-e-Insaf e Insaf (PTI) DK/NR

16% 5% 5% 5% 1% Sept 07 Poll

PML-Q Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)

Party Vote By Province-PUNJAB Sep-06

Feb-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

PPPP

13%

17%

22%

14%

PML-Q

39%

30%

27%

21%

PML-N

18%

23%

30%

54%

MMA

1%

4%

4%

4%

PTI

1%

2%

5%

4%

Party Vote By Province-SINDH

Sep-06

Feb-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

PPPP

46% 6%

57% %

6 % 60%

6 % 64%

PML-Q

14%

9%

14%

8%

PML-N

6%

3%

4%

4%

MMA

5%

4%

2%

1%

MQM

13%

11%

6%

5%

Party Vote By Province-NWFP

Sep-06

Feb-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

PPPP

18%

12%

25%

17%

PML-Q

8%

18%

20%

17%

PML-N

12%

9%

11%

27%

MMA

13%

10%

9%

10%

PTI

2%

5%

9%

13%

ANP

6%

7%

7%

3%

Party Vote By Province-BALOCHISTAN Sep-06

Feb-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

PPPP

24%

22%

34%

29%

PML Q PML-Q

11% %

44% %

27% %

12% %

PML-N

1%

1%

1%

9%

MMA

30%

9%

20%

15%

PKMAP

15%

5%

7%

9%

ANP

1%

1%

3%

7%

BNP

5%

7%

3%

5%

Recently some opposition parties decided to form the All-Parties Democratic Movement. Do you support the h APDM?

14% 5%

26%

55% %

Yes No Maybe DK/NR

If the elections were held next week and the following were the parties that formed coalitions, which hi h off these h would ld you vote ffor?? 45% 40%

40%

39%

35% 30% 25% 20%

15%

15% 10% 5% 0%

7%

APDM PML-Q/PPPP Neither DK/NR

If Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan, would you be more likely or less likely to support PML PML-N? N?

55%

0%

20% More likely

19%

40% 4 No change

60%

20%

80% Less likely

6%

100% DK/NR

Do you believe that elections under president Musharraf in uniform will be free and fair?

19%

24% Yes No DK/NR

58%

President Musharraf recently stated that exiled leaders would NOT be allowed to participate in the next election. Do you agree or di disagree with i h this hi d decision? i i ? DK/NR

8% 5%

66%

Disagree

Sept-07 Jun-07

78%

26%

Agree

17% 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%