Intelligence And Terrorism Info

2009 ‫ בינואר‬1

Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center at the Israel Intelligence Heritage & Commemoration Center (IICC)

Summary of rocket fire and mortar shelling in 2008

Ashdod

Ashkelon Kiryat Gat

Beersheba

A Abboouutt oonnee m miilllliioonn IIssrraaeellii cciivviilliiaannss tthhrreeaatteenneedd bbyy rroocckkeett ffiirree

2

O Ovveerrvviieew w 1. The year 2008 saw the peak of rocket use by Hamas and the other terrorist organizations operating in the Gaza Strip. Last year, the terrorist organizations managed to significantly increase the scope of rocket attacks. They gradually put nearly one million Israeli civilians living in the south (about 15 percent of the entire population) within the range of the rockets, and posed a security challenge to Israel, prompting it to launch Operation Cast Lead. 2. Rocket fire and mortar shelling first started in 2001, gradually becoming the major threat posed by the Palestinian terrorist organizations, which consider it an asymmetrical, simple, cheap, and reliable solution to Israel’s military superiority. The rockets, while still having their share of problems and shortcomings, in the terrorists’ view, allow them to disrupt the lives of Israeli civilians within the range of fire, destabilize their social fabric, override the security fence built by Israel along the Gaza Strip, and create a kind of balance of terror that makes it difficult for Israel’s security forces to conduct counter-activities and reflects the terrorist policy of Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip. 3. Following are three major characteristics of the use made by Hamas and the other terrorist organizations of rockets during 2008 (see chapter on statistical data for details):

a. A dramatic increase in the extent of rocket fire and mortar shelling despite the six months long lull in the fighting: in 2008, the peak year of rocket fire and mortar shelling, a total of 3,278 rockets and mortar shells landed in Israeli territory (1,750 rockets and 1,528 mortar shells). That is a significant increase compared to 2007 (the number of landings in 2008 more than doubled) and compared to the previous years of the Palestinian terrorist campaign.

b. A significant increase in the number of Israeli residents exposed to rocket fire within 40 km of the Gaza Strip: before 2008, the city of Sderot (about 20,000 residents) as well as villages around the Gaza Strip were the preferred target of rocket fire and mortar shelling. In 2008, other cities and hundreds of thousands of Israelis gradually entered the circle of fire: first the cities of Ashkelon and Netivot, and later, during Operation Cast Lead, Ashdod, Beersheba, and other cities within a range of 40 kilometers from the Gaza Strip. The rocket attacks created a new reality in which nearly one million Israeli residents (about 15 percent of the entire

3 population) are exposed to rocket fire and mortar shelling in various levels of intensity.

c. A significant improvement in the effectiveness of rockets and mortar shells possessed by Hamas and an increase in their quantity: in 2008, Hamas put into use 122-mm Grad launchers (for ranges of 20.4 km and approximately 40 km) and standard 120-mm mortars, which were smuggled into the Gaza Strip (in our assessment, from Iran). Those standard rockets and mortars, significantly different from self-manufactured rockets and mortars, not only increased the range of fire but also increased its effectiveness. That is a result of increasing the rockets’ warhead size and their fragmentation. As for the mortars—the standard 120-mm mortars are more precise and their range is greater than that of the other mortars possessed by Hamas and the other terrorist organizations.

4. The quantity of rockets held by Hamas and the other terrorist organizations has also increased, currently reaching, in our assessment, a constant supply of several hundred selfmanufactured 90 and 115-mm rockets and an unknown quantity of self-manufactured long-range rockets capable of attaining greater ranges (up to 19 km). Also, we assess that Hamas has dozens of standard long-range Grad rockets (122-mm) with a range of 20.4 km and a range of approximately 40 km, smuggled into the Gaza Strip through the tunnels in the Rafah region, some during the lull in the fighting. 5. As a result of the rocket and mortar shell fire, eight people were killed in 2008, four of them during Operation Cast Lead.1 During that operation, 58 people were injured as a result of rocket and mortar fire, 10 of them moderately and severely (as at December 31, 2008). Also, several dozen civilians were injured as a result of the rocket fire in 2008 (prior to Operation Cast Lead), and several hundreds suffered stress-related traumas. The number of fatalities, injuries, and stress-related traumas in 2008 is added to the number of casualties in the previous years of the confrontation (2001-2007): 10 civilians were killed, 434 were wounded, and thousands of civilians suffered from anxiety, shock, and various traumas as a result of the fire. The continuing fire of rockets and mortar shells has a severe, cumulative psychological effect on the population, causing severe damage to its social structure and severe damage to its feeling of safety. The fire also disrupts the efforts to promote a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians (the Annapolis process) by creating a lasting

1

In 2008, 21 people were killed as a result of terrorist attacks originating in the Gaza Strip, out of 31 killed as a result of terrorist attacks during that year (Summary of 2008 by the Israel Security Agency).

4 reality of rocket fire and counter-measures by Israel, which reached their peak in Operation Cast Lead.

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6. What follows is a summary of statistical data in various spreads about the rocket fire and mortar shelling in 2008 compared to previous years:

a. Rocket fire chart in yearly distribution, 2000-2008 b. Mortar shelling chart in 2000-2008 c. Rocket fire chart in monthly distribution in 2008 d. Mortar shelling in monthly distribution in 2008 e. Rocket fire and mortar shelling during the lull in the fighting f. Rocket fire and mortar shelling during Operation Cast Lead (as at December 31) g. New Grad rockets and mortars which became operational in 2008:

1.122-mm Grad rockets for a range of 20.4 km 2.122-mm Grad rockets for ranges of approximately 40 km 3.120-mm mortars h. The number of Israeli residents in the main cities of south Israel (the Negev)

C Coom mp plleem meen nttaarryy ssttu ud diieess 7. To complete the data and analysis in this document, one can draw upon four fundamental papers written by the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center in 2008: a. Rocket threat from the Gaza Strip, 2000-2007 (December 2007) b. Hamas’s military buildup in the Gaza Strip (Updated April 2008) c. Anti-Israeli Terrorism in 2007 and its Trends in 2008 (May 2008) d. The Six Months of the Lull Arrangement (December 2008)

5 R Roocckkeett ffiirree iinn yyeeaarrllyy ddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn,, 22000000--22000088 1730 1800

Total: 4,048 rockets

1600 1400 946 1200 783

1000 800

281 155 4

600 179 400

35 200 0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

M Moorrttaarr sshheelllliinngg iinn 22000000--22000088 1528 1600

Total: 4,040 mortar shells

1400

1200

876

1000 640

800

600 245

257

265

238

400 22

200

0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

6

R Roocckkeett ffiirree iinn m moonntthhllyy ddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn,, 22000088 June 19, the beginning of the lull in the fighting

Total: 1,665 rockets

361

400 350 300

257 241

250 196 200

145 149

125

150

87

100 8

1

1

50

1

0 Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

M Moorrttaarr sshheelllliinngg iinn m moonntthhllyy ddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn,, 22000088 Total: 1,497 mortar shells

June 19, the beginning of the lull of the fighting 373 400

350

241

300

228 250

206

158

200

136 103

150 68 100 8

3

1

3

50

0 Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

7

TTh hee llu ullll iin n tth hee ffiig gh httiin ng g R Roocckkeett ffiirree aanndd m moorrttaarr sshheelllliinngg dduurriinngg tthhee lluullll iinn tthhee ffiigghhttiinngg ccoom moonntthhss mppaarreedd ttoo pprreevviioouuss m

241

361

200

68

Ap r.

M ar

b.

Ja n

.

.

125 c.

0 De

No v.

4

1

Oc t.

5

8

1 Se p.

136

206

153

3

3

8

3

1

Au g.

373

84

Ju l.

228

Mortar shells

103

149

Ju n. 118 Ju n. 18 -3 0

241

Fe

Rockets

196

145

M ay

257

400

A total of 223 rockets and 139 mortar shells were fired during the lull in the fighting, including 203 rockets and 121 mortar shells between November 4 and December 19. In total, 362 rockets and mortar shells were fired at Israel during the lull in the fighting.

8

R Roocckkeett ffiirree aanndd m moorrttaarr sshheelllliinngg dduurriinngg tthhee ffiirrsstt ppeerriioodd ooff tthhee lluullll iinn tthhee ffiigghhttiinngg ((uunnttiill N Noovveem mbbeerr 44)) Total: 20 rocket landings (3 of which in the Gaza Strip) and 18 mortar shells (5 of which in the Gaza Strip)

8

8

8 7 6

5 4

Rockets

5 4

4 3

Mortar shells

3

3 2

2

1

1 0

June

July

August

0

September October

Note: the chart includes the fire incidents as of June 19, the beginning of the lull in the fighting. The chart includes 3 rockets and 5 mortar shells which landed in the Gaza Strip.

TThhee ddeetteerriioorraattiioonn ooff tthhee lluullll iinn tthhee ffiigghhttiinngg:: rroocckkeett ffiirree aanndd m moonntthh ooff moorrttaarr sshheelllliinngg iinn ddaaiillyy ddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn iinn tthhee m N Noovveem mbbeerr 22000088 50

Total: 125 rockets and 68 mortar shells

46

45 40 35 30

Rockets

25

Mortar shells

20 16

17 15

13

22 21 25 24 23 28 27 26 29 30

10

7

8 7 5 5 3 11 3 54 3 0 1 1 3 3 2 21 00 0 0 3 6 2 0 7 1 10 0 8 1 11 10 9 14 13 12 15 22 12 0 11 01 11 01 0 0 16 17 20 19 18

15

5 0 5

9

TThhee ddeetteerriioorraattiioonn ooff tthhee lluulll iinn tthhee ffiigghhttiinngg:: rroocckkeett ffiirree iinn ddaaiillyy ddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn iinn tthhee m mbbeerr 22000088 moonntthh ooff D Deecceem Total: 276 rockets

80

The end of the lull in the fighting according to Hamas’s announcement.

70 61

60

57

50 4243 Rocket s

30

30 20

18 12 4 2

8

7 2

7 7

14

1010 6

3

0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1

5

10 2

1.12 2.12 3.12 4.12 5.12 6.12 7.12 8.12 9.12 10.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.1 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.1 26.1 27.1 28.1 29.1 30.1 31.1

1

5

40

0

TThhee ddeetteerriioorraattiioonn ooff tthhee lluulll iinn tthhee ffiigghhttiinngg:: m moorrttaarr sshheellliinngg iinn ddaaiillyy ddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn iinn tthhee m Deecceem mbbeerr 22000088 moonntthh ooff D Total: 241 mortar shells in December 2008 35

33 The end of the lull of the fighting according to Hamas’s announcement

30

30 25

25 20 15

8

10 5

6

4 5 4 2

16 15

14

13

1

3 0 0 0

1 1 2 0 0

6

6 1

10

0 1

0 1.12 2.12 3.12 4.12 5.12 6.12 7.12 8.12 9.12 10.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.1 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.1 26.1 27.1 28.1 29.1 30.1 31.1

Mortar shells

18

16

10

RRoocckkeett ffiirree aanndd m Oppeerraattiioonn CCaasstt LLeeaadd moorrttaarr sshheellliinngg dduurriinngg O Total: 217 rocket landings and 95 mortar shell hits during Operation Cast Lead

70

61

57

60

‫רקטות‬ Rockets

50

43

42 33

40 25

‫מרגמה‬ ‫פצצות‬ Mortar shells

14

16

15

30 20

6

10 0

27.12

28.12

29.12

30.12

31.12

11

N Neew w ssttaan d iin n nd daarrd d rro occkkeettss aan nd dm mo orrttaarrss u usseed 2 20 00 08 8 IIm mpprroovveedd 112222--m mm mG Grraadd

Improved Grad rocket Diameter—122 mm Maximum range—20.4 km Warhead weight—66 kg Manufacturer—China, Iran, Russia, Bulgaria

IIm mpprroovveedd 112222--m mm mG Grraadd rroocckkeett ffoorr rraannggeess ooff aapppprrooxxiim maatteellyy 4400 kkm m

Diameter—122 mm Maximum range—40 km Warhead weight—18-22 kg Number of ball bearings—3,000-5,700 Manufacturer—China

The remains of the rocket identified by the Israeli police, which landed near Gan Yavne, northeast of Ashdod (December 28)

112200--m mm mm moorrttaarr sshheellll

12 120-mm standard Iranian-made mortar shell (a replica of an Israel Military Industries mortar shell from the 1970s supplied to Iran). The bomb is equipped with an auxiliary rocket engine which increases its range from six to ten kilometers. Note: on February 24, 2008, such mortar shell was fired and landed near Kibbutz Saad. On June 5, a 120-mm mortar shell hit the Nirlat paint factory in Kibbutz Nir Oz, killing Amnon Rosenberg, 51, from Kibbutz Nirim, and injuring four other people, two of them moderately. In addition, 120-mm mortar shells were fired in some other incidents.

Large Israeli cities exposed to rocket fire

City

2

Number of residents2

Ashdod

208,900

Beersheba

186,800

Ashkelon

110,000

Kiryat Gat

47,900

Rahat

43,300

Yavne

32,300

Netivot

26,100

Ofakim

24,700

Kiryat Malachi

19,700

Sderot

19,400

According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, as of September 2008.