India Retail Forecast
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- Words: 509
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Figures in INR Cr., unless otherwise mentioned Base case Total Total in USD bn.
Growth
Penetration Organized in USD bn
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
930,000 207
948,600 211
967,572 215
986,923 219
1,006,662 224
3.0% 27,900 6.20
5.0% 47,430 10.54
8.0% 77,406 17.20
10.0% 98,692 21.93
12.0% 120,799 26.84
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
Food and grocery in USD bn %age CAGR
3,627 0.81 13%
5,692 1.26 12%
10,063 2.24 13%
14,804 3.29 15%
21,744 4.83 18%
Durables in USD bn %age CAGR
2,790 0.62 10%
4,743 1.05 10%
7,741 1.72 10%
9,869 2.19 10%
12,080 2.68 10%
Pharma in USD bn %age CAGR
558 0.12 2%
949 0.21 2%
1,548 0.34 2%
2,961 0.66 3%
3,624 0.81 3%
Books, music, entertainment in USD bn %age CAGR
1,395 0.31 5%
2,372 0.53 5%
3,870 0.86 5%
4,935 1.10 5%
6,040 1.34 5%
Footwear in USD bn %age CAGR
2,511 0.56 9%
4,269 0.95 9%
6,192 1.38 8%
6,908 1.54 7%
8,456 1.88 7%
Apparel in USD bn %age CAGR
10,602 2.36 38%
18,023 4.01 38%
29,414 6.54 38%
35,529 7.90 36%
41,072 9.13 34%
4,743 1.05 17%
7,589 1.69 16%
10,837 2.41 14%
11,843 2.63 12%
13,288 2.95 11%
Cosmetics in USD bn %age CAGR
837 0.19 3%
2,372 0.53 5%
5,418 1.20 7%
7,895 1.75 8%
9,664 2.15 8%
Home furnishings in USD bn %age CAGR
837 0.19 3%
1,423 0.32 3%
2,322 0.52 3%
3,948 0.88 4%
4,832 1.07 4%
Watches and jewelry in USD bn %age CAGR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,026,795 228
1,047,331 233
1,068,278 237
1,089,643 242
1,111,436 247
1,133,665 252
1,156,338 257
15.0% 154,019 34.23
17.0% 178,046 39.57
20.0% 213,656 47.48
22.0% 239,722 53.27
25.0% 277,859 61.75
27.0% 306,089 68.02
30.0% 346,901 77.09
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
30,804 6.85 20%
44,512 9.89 25%
55,550 12.34 26%
64,725 14.38 27%
77,801 17.29 28%
88,766 19.73 29%
104,070 23.13 30% 36%
15,402 3.42 10%
17,805 3.96 10%
21,366 4.75 10%
23,972 5.33 10%
27,786 6.17 10%
30,609 6.80 10%
34,690 7.71 10% 26%
4,621 1.03 3%
7,122 1.58 4%
8,546 1.90 4%
9,589 2.13 4%
13,893 3.09 5%
15,304 3.40 5%
17,345 3.85 5% 37%
7,701 1.71 5%
8,902 1.98 5%
10,683 2.37 5%
11,986 2.66 5%
13,893 3.09 5%
15,304 3.40 5%
17,345 3.85 5% 26%
9,241 2.05 6%
10,683 2.37 6%
12,819 2.85 6%
11,986 2.66 5%
13,893 3.09 5%
15,304 3.40 5%
17,345 3.85 5% 19%
50,826 11.29 33%
49,853 11.08 28%
57,687 12.82 27%
62,328 13.85 26%
69,465 15.44 25%
76,522 17.00 25%
86,725 19.27 25% 21%
15,402 3.42 10%
16,024 3.56 9%
17,092 3.80 8%
19,178 4.26 8%
19,450 4.32 7%
18,365 4.08 6%
17,345 3.85 5% 13%
13,862 3.08 9%
16,024 3.56 9%
21,366 4.75 10%
23,972 5.33 10%
27,786 6.17 10%
30,609 6.80 10%
34,690 7.71 10% 40%
6,161 1.37 4%
7,122 1.58 4%
8,546 1.90 4%
11,986 2.66 5%
13,893 3.09 5%
15,304 3.40 5%
17,345 3.85 5% 32%
Growth
Penetration Organized in USD bn
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
930,000 207
948,600 211
967,572 215
986,923 219
1,006,662 224
3.0% 27,900 6.20
5.0% 47,430 10.54
8.0% 77,406 17.20
10.0% 98,692 21.93
12.0% 120,799 26.84
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
Food and grocery in USD bn %age CAGR
3,627 0.81 13%
5,692 1.26 12%
10,063 2.24 13%
14,804 3.29 15%
21,744 4.83 18%
Durables in USD bn %age CAGR
2,790 0.62 10%
4,743 1.05 10%
7,741 1.72 10%
9,869 2.19 10%
12,080 2.68 10%
Pharma in USD bn %age CAGR
558 0.12 2%
949 0.21 2%
1,548 0.34 2%
2,961 0.66 3%
3,624 0.81 3%
Books, music, entertainment in USD bn %age CAGR
1,395 0.31 5%
2,372 0.53 5%
3,870 0.86 5%
4,935 1.10 5%
6,040 1.34 5%
Footwear in USD bn %age CAGR
2,511 0.56 9%
4,269 0.95 9%
6,192 1.38 8%
6,908 1.54 7%
8,456 1.88 7%
Apparel in USD bn %age CAGR
10,602 2.36 38%
18,023 4.01 38%
29,414 6.54 38%
35,529 7.90 36%
41,072 9.13 34%
4,743 1.05 17%
7,589 1.69 16%
10,837 2.41 14%
11,843 2.63 12%
13,288 2.95 11%
Cosmetics in USD bn %age CAGR
837 0.19 3%
2,372 0.53 5%
5,418 1.20 7%
7,895 1.75 8%
9,664 2.15 8%
Home furnishings in USD bn %age CAGR
837 0.19 3%
1,423 0.32 3%
2,322 0.52 3%
3,948 0.88 4%
4,832 1.07 4%
Watches and jewelry in USD bn %age CAGR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,026,795 228
1,047,331 233
1,068,278 237
1,089,643 242
1,111,436 247
1,133,665 252
1,156,338 257
15.0% 154,019 34.23
17.0% 178,046 39.57
20.0% 213,656 47.48
22.0% 239,722 53.27
25.0% 277,859 61.75
27.0% 306,089 68.02
30.0% 346,901 77.09
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
2%
100%
30,804 6.85 20%
44,512 9.89 25%
55,550 12.34 26%
64,725 14.38 27%
77,801 17.29 28%
88,766 19.73 29%
104,070 23.13 30% 36%
15,402 3.42 10%
17,805 3.96 10%
21,366 4.75 10%
23,972 5.33 10%
27,786 6.17 10%
30,609 6.80 10%
34,690 7.71 10% 26%
4,621 1.03 3%
7,122 1.58 4%
8,546 1.90 4%
9,589 2.13 4%
13,893 3.09 5%
15,304 3.40 5%
17,345 3.85 5% 37%
7,701 1.71 5%
8,902 1.98 5%
10,683 2.37 5%
11,986 2.66 5%
13,893 3.09 5%
15,304 3.40 5%
17,345 3.85 5% 26%
9,241 2.05 6%
10,683 2.37 6%
12,819 2.85 6%
11,986 2.66 5%
13,893 3.09 5%
15,304 3.40 5%
17,345 3.85 5% 19%
50,826 11.29 33%
49,853 11.08 28%
57,687 12.82 27%
62,328 13.85 26%
69,465 15.44 25%
76,522 17.00 25%
86,725 19.27 25% 21%
15,402 3.42 10%
16,024 3.56 9%
17,092 3.80 8%
19,178 4.26 8%
19,450 4.32 7%
18,365 4.08 6%
17,345 3.85 5% 13%
13,862 3.08 9%
16,024 3.56 9%
21,366 4.75 10%
23,972 5.33 10%
27,786 6.17 10%
30,609 6.80 10%
34,690 7.71 10% 40%
6,161 1.37 4%
7,122 1.58 4%
8,546 1.90 4%
11,986 2.66 5%
13,893 3.09 5%
15,304 3.40 5%
17,345 3.85 5% 32%
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