Igbp Science In Pakistan

IGBP SCIENCE IN PAKISTAN By

Dr. Amir Muhammed Chairman, Pakistan National IGBP Committee

PAKISTAN GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION



SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 149 million Population: Growth Rate:

2.06%

 Literacy rate:

51%

Male Female

53% 29%

 GDP (per capita): $492  Population below poverty line:32% Urban Rural

 Health Expenditure

22% 39%

0.7% of GDP

 Rural population access to; Safe drinking water: Sanitation:

48% 23%

CLIMATE

Mostly Arid and Semi arid; temperate in the North west

Hot dry summers, Temperatures upto 530c (1270 F)

Rainfall Annual average (weighted): •South: •North:

278 mm

80 - 200 mm 250 – 1600 mm

Monsoon Share:

49%

TEMPERATURE

RAINFALL

AGRICULTURE  Largest sector of Economy (24% of GDP)

68% population rural; directly or indirectly depends on agriculture Industries almost entirely agro based >80% exports agro based Predominantly depends on irrigation

IRRIGATION NETWORK

WATER AVAILABILITY

RECENT TRENDS IN CLIMATE CHANGE Drought in Pakistan for last three years Forecast for continued dry weather in arid areas of the sub-continent Extremes getting severe-intense short duration rains, prolonged dry spells

IMPACT ON RAINFALL & WARMING Historical comparison (1930-60 & 1960-90)

 Rise in mean temp. of 0.5-1.00C in arid coastal areas, arid mountains and hyper arid plains  10-15% decrease in rainfall in above regions  15-35% increase in rainfall in monsoon zone  0.5 to 0.75% Increase in solar radiation in Balochistan and Southern Pakistan  1-2% decrease in cloud cover in central Pakistan with increase in sunshine hours

IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES AND ECONOMY  Less snowfall, slow deposits & glacierization  Reduced river flows  Reduction in storage of water in dams  Less rainfall in arid areas, prolonged droughts

Air Pollution •

Number of vehicles jumped from less than one million to about 4 million during last 20 years

•

Av. Suspended particulate matter in major cities 6 times higher than WHO standard

Water Pollution •

Existing water resources under threat due to untreated discharge of municipal and industrial wastes. (Pak-EPA study: Biological Oxygen Demand of river Ravi (Lahore)was 300 mg/litre (9 mg/l is acceptable)

•

Increasing use of agro-chemicals polluting river and underground water

•

Drinking water unfit for human consumption in most cities

Industrial Pollution • Imports 525 types of chemicals for processing industries, in addition to locally produced •

Processing generates wastes & poses risk to public health, land, water and marine resources

•

Kasur Tanneries discharging effluent with chrome concn. of > 200 mg/litre (standard 1 mg/l) and COD of >7000/l ( limit 150 mg/l)

Marine Pollution •

Karachi generates 280 mn gallons of domestic and industrial waste daily. 80% untreated waste from 6000 industrial units discharged into sea

•

8,000T garbage generated daily in Karachi, dumped randomly at various locations. Some finds its way into sea

•

Karachi harbour area, including marine channel, is one of the most oil-polluted area along the coast of Pakistan

•

Serious threat to marine environment, fisheries and mangrove resources, affecting poor coastal population.

Loss of Biodiversity

R&D EXPENDITURE 3.5

% of GNP

3 2.5 2

Total Private Sector

1.5 1 0.5 0 Japan

Korea

India

Pakistan

Source: PCST Publications, “S&T Potential 1990” & “S&T Indicators of Pakistan, 1999”. UNESCO Year Book 1999

R&D MANPOWER Per Million Population

3000 2500 2000

1996-97

1500 1000 500 0 S ingapore

Korea

India

Malays ia

Pak is tan

Source: UNESCO Year Book 1999

SCIENCE LEARNED BODIES  Pakistan Academy of Sciences  Pakistan Association for Advancement of Science  Scientific Society of Pakistan

IGBP COMMITTEE OF PAKISTAN  Dr. Amir Muhammed:

Agriculture

 Dr. M.D. Shami

Chemical Technology

 Prof. Iftikar Malik

Medical (Pathology)

 Mr. Tajammal H. Hashmi

Engineering

 Dr. Iqbal Hussain Quershi Chemistry  Prof. Dr. M.Suhail Zubairy Electronics  Prof. Dr. M.Qasim Jan

Geology

 Dr. Qamaruzzaman

Meteorology

INSTITUTIONS RELEVANT TO GC RESEARCH  Pakistan Council for Scientific & Industrial Research  Pakistan Agriculture Research Council  Pak. Council for Res. in Water Resources  Water and Power Development Authority  National Institute of Oceanography  Pakistan Meteorological Department  Global Change Impact Studies Centre

GC SCIENCE PROJECTS 

Water Resources in South Asia – An assessment of Climate Change associated vulnerabilities and coping mechanisms” APN 2003-4 (Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal,USA)



Global Change impact assessment for Himalayan Mountain Region for Environmental Management and Sustainable Development” APN #2003-3 (Nepal, India, Pakistan)



Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes and the identification of Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) affected by Global Warming in the Mountains APN #2003-5 (Nepal, Pakistan, India, China, Japan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea)



An assessment of nutrient, sediment and carbon fluxes to the coastal zone in South Asia and their relationship to human activities-(APN #2001-20) : (Srilanka, Pakistan, India, Nepal, USA, Australia)



Management Responses to Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Mixed Cropping Systems of South Asia's Semi-Arid Tropics (CLIMAG) APN #2000-17 ( Australia, India, Pakistan, USA)



South Asian Regional Experiment to Characterize and Evaluate Physiological Response of Rice Varieties to CO2 Enrichment. APN #2000-08 (India, Bangladesh,, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka)



APN Networking & Capacity Building Workshop#2000-NC02 ( Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka)

PROPOSAL FOR STRENGTHENING IGBP SCIENCE IN PAKISTAN  Sensitize policy makers to importance of GC studies  Establish focal point for GC aspects in M/0 Environment  Regional and national capacity building workshops  Establish education programs in environmental science  Incorporate GC concerns in curricula  Graduate course on GC science in region (AIT Bangkok?)  Enhance capacity for science-based GC studies  Support collab. research with developed country scientists  Encourage visiting scientist program for young scientists