Hydrogen Fuel Infrastructure Options

Cost of Some Hydrogen Fuel Infrastructure Options

Marianne Mintz Stephen Folga John Molburg Jerry Gillette

Transportation Research Board January 16, 2002

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Focus of Presentation Is on: • Cost modeling process • Pathways – Components – Arrangement – Key assumptions • Hydrogen delivery volumes • Illustrative component cost analyses • Results

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Cost Modeling Was Conducted Via a Five-Step Process • Define paths – NG compression, storage and transport – Hydrogen production – H2 compression, storage and transport – Hydrogen dispensing • Determine “tank-in” fuel requirement – HFCV market penetration & efficiency • Size pathway components • Estimate component costs • Calculate pathway costs (NICC model)

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Three Pathways H Storage Were Modeled H Transmission 2

2

NA NG Extraction

ResourceCentered H2 Production

NG Purification

H2 Distribution NG Transmission

MarketCentered H2 Production

NG Storage

NNA NG Extraction

NG Liquefaction NG Plant Purification Fischer-Tropsch Plant Methanol Plant

NG Distribution

H2 Fuel Station

Decentralized H2 Production Compressed Natural Gas

Regasification Tanker Oil Pipeline Diesel Fuel Station Transport Methanol Distribution Methanol Fuel Station

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Steam Reforming Inputs Are Water and Hydrocarbon Feedstock; Outputs Are Hydrogen and Purge Gases

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

All Pathways Include Underground Storage At the end of 1998 there were 410 underground natural gas storage sites in the U.S.

With 76 Bcf per day of Withdrawal Capability and 3,933 Bcf of Working Gas Capacity

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

All Pathways Require Additions to the Existing Natural Gas Transmission Infrastructure

The US has an extensive in-place NG transmission infrastructure ………….. Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

And a Track Record of Continually Expanding Transmission Capacity • New pipelines • Additional compression • Looping • All of the above

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

According to EIA, Nearly $5 bln Was Spent on Pipeline Expansion in 2000 Completed

8,000

Proposed

Millions of Dollars

7,000 6,000

4,876 (Estimated)

5,000 4,000 3,000

2,380 2,124 (Preliminary)

2,000 1,000

1,397 552

0 Source: EIA 2001

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Components of the ResourceCentered Pathway H Storage 2

ResourceCentered H2 Production NA NG Extraction

NG Purification NG Transmission

H2 Transmission H2 Distribution MarketCentered H2 Production NG Storage

H2 Fuel Station

Decentralized H2 Production NG Distribution

Compressed Natural Gas

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Hydrogen Production Is Near Natural Gas Supplies in the ResourceCentered Pathway

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Components of the Market-Centered Pathway H2 Storage H2 Transmission ResourceCentered H2 Production NA NG Extraction H2 Distribution

NG Purification NG Transmission

H2 Fuel Station

MarketCentered H2 Production Decentralized H2 Production

NG Storage NG Distribution

Compressed Natural Gas

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Market-Centered and ResourceCentered Paths Share H2 Distribution Assumptions Component

Radius (mi)

Diameter (in)

Length (mi)

H2 Pipeline Connecting Pipeline Ring with H2 Production Plant

N/A

12

15

25

12

157

N/A

3

900 a

H2 Pipeline Ring Encompassing Community H2 Pipeline Connecting H2 Refueling Stations with H2 Pipeline Ring a

Assumes 180 refueling stations, a service pipeline unit length of 15 miles, and 3 refueling stations per service pipeline. Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Conceptual Representation of Hydrogen Pipeline Loop Supporting Local H2 Delivery Regional H2 Production Plant L1 L2

. H2 Refueling Station

radius, r H2 Refueling Station

H2 Refueling Station

H2 Refueling Station

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Components of the Decentralized Pathway H2 Storage

NA NG Extraction

NG Purification

ResourceCentered H2 Production

H2 Transmission

NG Transmission

MarketCentered H2 Production

H2 Distribution

NG Storage

H2 Fueling Station

Decentralized H2 Production NG Distribution Compressed Natural Gas

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Two Market Penetration Cases Were Modeled 70% New Sales

60% 50%

Total LDVs

40% 30%

New Sales

20% 10%

Total LDVs

0% 2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Six Cumulative Delivery Volumes, Functions of HFCV MPGE & Market Penetration, Were Modeled MPGE

30% Market Penetration

60% Market Penetration

60

6.9 bln GJ (6.6 Q)

High Penetration Low mpg 31.2 bln GJ (29.6 Q)

74

5.6 bln GJ (5.4 Q)

25.5 bln GJ (24.2 Q)

80

Low Penetration High mpg 5.2 bln GJ (4.9 Q)

23.4 bln GJ (22.2 Q)

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

The US Accounts for 20% of Global Hydrogen Consumption , Approx. 1 Q (1999, tcf) Captive Users

United States

Total World1

- NH3 Producers

1.185

9.662

- Oil Refiners2

1.164

3.721

- MeOH Producers

0.303

1.428

- Other

0.128

0.489

Merchant Users

0.379

0.570

Total

3.160

15.872

1

Including US. 2 Excluding byproduct hydrogen. Source: SRI Chemical & Health Business Services 2001. Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Capital Cost (mln $)

Current SMR Plants Have Large Economies of Scale $1,000

y = 5.384E+00x6.405E-01 R2 = 0.9437

$100 $10 $1 0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

Hydrogen Production Rate (tpd) Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Compressor Costs Are a Function of Power y = 22877x 0.4561 R2 = 0.9527

$250,000

Cost ($)

$200,000 $150,000 $100,000 y = 34037x 0.3036 R2 = 0.8655

$50,000 $0 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Pow er Required (kW) M ult i- S t a g e

S ing le - S t a g e

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Unit Cost of NG & H2 Pipelines Vary with Pipe Diameter & Installation Technology

Diameter (inch)

Capital Cost of Natural Gas Pipeline ($/mi)

Capital Cost of H2 Capital Cost of H2 Pipeline, Cut/Cover Pipeline, ($/mi) Trenchless ($/mi)

3

$200,000

$400,000

$300,000

9

$500,000

$900,000

$700,000

12

$600,000

$1,000,000

$900,000

14

$800,000

$1,400,000

$1,150,000

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Least Cost Pathway Depends on H2 Volume; Reformers and Pipelines Are Largest Components $40 $35

Decentralized Production

MarketCentered Production

SupplyCentered Production

Unit Cost ($/GJ)

$30 Refueling $25

Transp Savings H2 Transport

$20

H2 Production $15

NG Transport NG Feedstock

$10 $5 $0 Low H2 Mkt, Hi Veh Eff

Hi H2 Low H2 Hi H2 Low H2 Hi H2 Mkt, Mkt, Hi Mkt, Mkt, Hi Mkt, Low Veh Eff Low Veh Eff Low Veh Eff Veh Eff Veh Eff

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Total Investment ($billion)

H2 Infrastructure to Fuel 100 Million+ FCVs Could Cost $500 Billion or More $800 $700

Decentralized Production

Market-Centered Production

Resource-Centered Production

$600 Refueling

$500

H2 Transport

$400

H2 Production NG Transport

$300

NG Feedstock $200 $100 $0 Low H2 Hi H2 Low H2 Hi H2 Low H2 Hi H2 Mkt, Hi Mkt, Low Mkt, Hi Mkt, Low Mkt, Hi Mkt, Low Veh Eff Veh Eff Veh Eff Veh Eff Veh Eff Veh Eff

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

H2 Unit Cost Varies by Pathway and Feedstock Price; Volume Matters for Centralized Pathways $40

Unit Cost ($/GJ)

$35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5

Decentralized, $3/MMBtu Resource-Centered, $3/MMBtu Market-Centered, $9/MMBtu

Market-Centered, $3/MMBtu Decentralized, $9/MMBtu Resource-Centered, $9/MMBtu

$0

0.E+00

1.E+10

2.E+10

3.E+10

4.E+10

Cumulative Production (GJ)

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Some Conclusions: • With current technologies, on a well-to-tank basis, hydrogen is likely to be at least twice as costly as gasoline. • With current technologies, the hydrogen delivery infrastructure to serve 40% of the light duty fleet is likely to cost over $500 billion. • For up to 7.5 bln GJ (7 Q) of cumulative hydrogen production, the decentralized path is lowest cost. • For more than 13.6 bln GJ (13 Q), of cumulative production, the resource-centered path is lowest.

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Conclusions (cont’d) • With current technologies, scale economies are large for centralized options; small for decentralized • Of the central production options, the resource-centered path is consistently lower cost (economies of scale). • H2 transport and production are the largest cost components of all paths examined, hence appropriate focus for cost reduction. • Pipeline costs may be overestimated in the literature due to improvements in excavation/installation technologies.

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Carbon Intensity of World Primary Energy Has Been Declining Steadily

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center

Marianne Mintz [email protected]

Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology R&D Center