Gop Poll
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PENNSYLVANIA STATEWIDE May 3-4, 2009 Project: #09154
CORE: GOP:
C.
N=700 Likely Voters + N=179 Additional Republicans Margin of Error (700) = +3.7% / (450) = +4.62%
N=700 Likely Voters Statewide N=450 GOP Voters Statewide (N=271 from CORE & N=179 Oversample)
And, even though the 2010 election for United States Senator, Governor and Congress is a long ways off, how interested are you in voting in that election? CORE GOP 77% 81% 23% 19%
VERY LIKELY SOMEW HAT LIKELY
Now, before we begin, just to be sure we hav e a representative sample... D.
In what year were you born? CORE 3% 13% 29% 16% 17% 21% 1%
GOP 2% 7% 17% 21% 23% 30% *
18 25 35 45 55 65
- 24 - 34 - 44 - 54 - 64 AND ABOVE
REFUSED
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
E.
Page 2
Now , regardless of your present feelings about politics and current events, do the voter registration records cu rrently show y ou to be reg istered as... a Republican, a Democrat, ...or something else? CORE GOP 22% 59% 15% 41% 2% 5% 3%
----
LEAN REPUBLICAN SOMETHING ELSE/INDEPENDENT LEAN DEMOCRATIC
17% 34%
---
NOT-SO-STRONG DEMOCR AT STRONG DEMOCR AT
2%
--
REFUSED
37% 51% 10%
1.
STRONG REPUBLICAN NOT-SO-STRONG REPUBLICAN
100% – –
TOTAL REPUBLICAN TOTAL DEMOCRAT TOTAL LEAN/INDEPENDENT
Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? CORE GOP 50% 23% 44% 68% 5% 2%
7% 2%
RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK D ON ’T KN OW REFUSED
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
Page 3
And, thinking about things in Washington ... 2.
Do you approve or disap prove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President? CORE 41% 25% 11% 20%
GOP 14% 22% 18% 40%
2% 1%
4% 1%
65% 31%
36% 59%
STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE D ON ’T KN OW REFUSED TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE
Now, I w ould like to read you some nam es of different people active in politics. For each one, please tell me, first whether you've heard of the person; then, if so, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If I name someone you don't know too much about, just tell me and we'll go on to the next one. TOT FAV
TOT UNFAV
VERY FAV
SMWT FAV
SMWT UNFAV
VERY UNFAV
NO NVR OPIN HRD
DK/ REF
3. Arlen Specter CORE 50% GOP 30%
40% 65%
22% 14%
29% 16%
12% 15%
28% 50%
6% 4%
3% 1%
4. Pat Toomey CORE 29% GOP 42%
13% 8%
9% 19%
20% 22%
7% 6%
6% 2%
26% 27%
32% 23%
5. Tom Ridge CORE 67% GOP 80%
18% 8%
29% 41%
38% 39%
11% 5%
7% 3%
9% 9%
6% 3%
6. Peg Luksik CORE 5% GOP 9%
3% 2%
2% 2%
3% 7%
2% 2%
2% *
12% 17%
79% 71%
1% 1%
7. Joe Sestak, U.S. Congressman from Delaware and C hester Counties (CORE ONLY) CORE 15% 3% 5% 10% 2% 1% 15% 66%
1%
---
1% *
* *
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
Page 4
Thinkin g ahead to next year’s Rep ublican primary election for United States Sen ator... If that election were being held today... GOP ONLY 8. For whom would y ou vote if the candidates were... Pat Toomey Tom Ridge Peg Luksik
...and...
10% 11%
DEFINITELY TOOMEY PROBABLY TOOM EY
30% 29%
DEFINITELY RIDGE PROBABLY RIDGE
1% 2% 1% 3% * 13% * 21% 59% 2% 17%
DE FINITELY LUKSIK PROB AB LY LUKSIK LEAN TOOMEY LEAN RIDGE LEAN LUKSIK HARD UNDECIDED REFUSED TOTAL TOOMEY TOTAL RIDGE TOTAL LUK SIK TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
GOP ONLY 9. And, for whom would y ou vote if the candidates were... Pat Toomey ... and ... Tom Ridge 10% 12%
DEFINITELY TOOMEY PROBABLY TOOM EY
1% 12% 4%
LEAN TOOMEY HARD UNDECIDED/NOT SURE LEAN RIDGE
28% 33%
PROBABLY RIDGE DEFINITELY RIDGE
1% 23% 60% 16%
REFUSED TOTAL TOOMEY TOTAL RIDGE TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED
Page 5
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
DEM FROM COR E ON LY (N=357) Thinkin g ahead to next year’s Democratic primary election for United States Senator... If that election were being held today... 10. For whom would y ou vote between... Arlen Specter ... and ... Joe Sestak 32% 25%
DEFINITELY SPECTER PROBABLY SPECTER
5% 14% 4%
LEAN SPECTER HARD UNDECIDED/NOT SURE LEAN SESTAK
12% 8%
PROBABLY SESTAK DEFINITELY SESTAK
1% 57% 20% 22%
REFUSED TOTAL SPECTER TOTAL SESTAK TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED
Page 6
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
Now, lookin g ahead to the 2010 general election... If the election for United States Sen ator w ere being held today... CORE ONLY 11. And, for whom would y ou vote for U.S. Senator if the candidates were... Pat Toomey, Repub lican ... and ... Arlen Specter, Democrat 28% 12% 2% 6% 2% 20% 29% 1% 40% 49% 10%
DEFINITELY TOOMEY PROBABLY TOOM EY LEAN TOOMEY HARD UNDECIDED/NOT SURE LEAN SPECTER PROBABLY SPECTER DEFINITELY SPECTER REFUSED TOTAL TOOMEY TOTAL SPECTER TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED
Page 7
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
CORE ONLY 12. And, for whom would y ou vote for U.S. Senator if the candidates were... Tom R idge, Republican ... and ... Arlen Sp ecter, D emocrat? 35% 13% 2% 6% 3% 15% 26% 1% 48% 41% 10%
DEFINITELY RIDGE PROBABLY RIDGE LEAN RIDGE HARD UNDECIDED/NOT SURE LEAN SPECTER PROBABLY SPECTER DEFINITELY SPECTER REFUSED TOTAL RIDGE TOTAL SPECTER TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED
Page 8
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
Page 9
Now, I have just a few m ore questions for statistical purp oses only ... 13. And, thinking a little about y our political attitudes... Do you consider yourself to be... Conservative Moderate ...OR ... Liberal CORE 18% 20% 40% 11% 8%
14.
GOP 32% 27% 34% 5% 1%
2% *
2% --
38% 59%
59% 39%
VERY CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE MODERATE SOMEWHAT LIBERAL VERY LIBERAL NOT SURE REFUSED TOTAL CONSERVATIVE TOTAL MODERATE/LIBERAL
Other than being an American, what is your main racial or ethnic heritage? CORE GOP 82% 96% 13% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% * 2% 1%
CAUCASIAN OR WHITE AFRICAN-AMERICAN OR BLACK HISPANIC ASIAN OTHER REFUSED
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
15.
Page 10
Regardless of how you may feel today...for which of the following candidates did you vote for President... CORE GOP 41% 73% 52% 20% 1% 1% ...OR ... 1% 1% * 2% 1% 2%
16.
* 2% 1% 2%
John M cCain Barack Obama Ralph Nader Bob Barr SOMEONE ELSE DID NOT VOTE DON’T KNOW/DON’T RECALL REFUSED
Gender. Are you employed outside of the home, are you a homemaker, or are you retired? CORE GOP 31% 32% * * 13% 14% 3% 3%
MALE/EMPLOYED MALE/HOMEM AKER MALE/RETIRED MALE/NOT IN LABOR FORCE
27% 10% 12% 3%
25% 8% 16% 1%
FEMALE/EMPLOYED FEMALE/HOMEMA KER FEMALE/RETIRED FEMALE/NOT IN LABOR FORCE
*
--
MALE REFUSED
*
*
FEMALE REFUSED
48% 52%
50% 50%
TOTAL MALE TOTAL FEMALE
CORE: GOP:
C.
N=700 Likely Voters + N=179 Additional Republicans Margin of Error (700) = +3.7% / (450) = +4.62%
N=700 Likely Voters Statewide N=450 GOP Voters Statewide (N=271 from CORE & N=179 Oversample)
And, even though the 2010 election for United States Senator, Governor and Congress is a long ways off, how interested are you in voting in that election? CORE GOP 77% 81% 23% 19%
VERY LIKELY SOMEW HAT LIKELY
Now, before we begin, just to be sure we hav e a representative sample... D.
In what year were you born? CORE 3% 13% 29% 16% 17% 21% 1%
GOP 2% 7% 17% 21% 23% 30% *
18 25 35 45 55 65
- 24 - 34 - 44 - 54 - 64 AND ABOVE
REFUSED
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
E.
Page 2
Now , regardless of your present feelings about politics and current events, do the voter registration records cu rrently show y ou to be reg istered as... a Republican, a Democrat, ...or something else? CORE GOP 22% 59% 15% 41% 2% 5% 3%
----
LEAN REPUBLICAN SOMETHING ELSE/INDEPENDENT LEAN DEMOCRATIC
17% 34%
---
NOT-SO-STRONG DEMOCR AT STRONG DEMOCR AT
2%
--
REFUSED
37% 51% 10%
1.
STRONG REPUBLICAN NOT-SO-STRONG REPUBLICAN
100% – –
TOTAL REPUBLICAN TOTAL DEMOCRAT TOTAL LEAN/INDEPENDENT
Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? CORE GOP 50% 23% 44% 68% 5% 2%
7% 2%
RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK D ON ’T KN OW REFUSED
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
Page 3
And, thinking about things in Washington ... 2.
Do you approve or disap prove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President? CORE 41% 25% 11% 20%
GOP 14% 22% 18% 40%
2% 1%
4% 1%
65% 31%
36% 59%
STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE D ON ’T KN OW REFUSED TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE
Now, I w ould like to read you some nam es of different people active in politics. For each one, please tell me, first whether you've heard of the person; then, if so, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If I name someone you don't know too much about, just tell me and we'll go on to the next one. TOT FAV
TOT UNFAV
VERY FAV
SMWT FAV
SMWT UNFAV
VERY UNFAV
NO NVR OPIN HRD
DK/ REF
3. Arlen Specter CORE 50% GOP 30%
40% 65%
22% 14%
29% 16%
12% 15%
28% 50%
6% 4%
3% 1%
4. Pat Toomey CORE 29% GOP 42%
13% 8%
9% 19%
20% 22%
7% 6%
6% 2%
26% 27%
32% 23%
5. Tom Ridge CORE 67% GOP 80%
18% 8%
29% 41%
38% 39%
11% 5%
7% 3%
9% 9%
6% 3%
6. Peg Luksik CORE 5% GOP 9%
3% 2%
2% 2%
3% 7%
2% 2%
2% *
12% 17%
79% 71%
1% 1%
7. Joe Sestak, U.S. Congressman from Delaware and C hester Counties (CORE ONLY) CORE 15% 3% 5% 10% 2% 1% 15% 66%
1%
---
1% *
* *
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
Page 4
Thinkin g ahead to next year’s Rep ublican primary election for United States Sen ator... If that election were being held today... GOP ONLY 8. For whom would y ou vote if the candidates were... Pat Toomey Tom Ridge Peg Luksik
...and...
10% 11%
DEFINITELY TOOMEY PROBABLY TOOM EY
30% 29%
DEFINITELY RIDGE PROBABLY RIDGE
1% 2% 1% 3% * 13% * 21% 59% 2% 17%
DE FINITELY LUKSIK PROB AB LY LUKSIK LEAN TOOMEY LEAN RIDGE LEAN LUKSIK HARD UNDECIDED REFUSED TOTAL TOOMEY TOTAL RIDGE TOTAL LUK SIK TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
GOP ONLY 9. And, for whom would y ou vote if the candidates were... Pat Toomey ... and ... Tom Ridge 10% 12%
DEFINITELY TOOMEY PROBABLY TOOM EY
1% 12% 4%
LEAN TOOMEY HARD UNDECIDED/NOT SURE LEAN RIDGE
28% 33%
PROBABLY RIDGE DEFINITELY RIDGE
1% 23% 60% 16%
REFUSED TOTAL TOOMEY TOTAL RIDGE TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED
Page 5
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
DEM FROM COR E ON LY (N=357) Thinkin g ahead to next year’s Democratic primary election for United States Senator... If that election were being held today... 10. For whom would y ou vote between... Arlen Specter ... and ... Joe Sestak 32% 25%
DEFINITELY SPECTER PROBABLY SPECTER
5% 14% 4%
LEAN SPECTER HARD UNDECIDED/NOT SURE LEAN SESTAK
12% 8%
PROBABLY SESTAK DEFINITELY SESTAK
1% 57% 20% 22%
REFUSED TOTAL SPECTER TOTAL SESTAK TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED
Page 6
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
Now, lookin g ahead to the 2010 general election... If the election for United States Sen ator w ere being held today... CORE ONLY 11. And, for whom would y ou vote for U.S. Senator if the candidates were... Pat Toomey, Repub lican ... and ... Arlen Specter, Democrat 28% 12% 2% 6% 2% 20% 29% 1% 40% 49% 10%
DEFINITELY TOOMEY PROBABLY TOOM EY LEAN TOOMEY HARD UNDECIDED/NOT SURE LEAN SPECTER PROBABLY SPECTER DEFINITELY SPECTER REFUSED TOTAL TOOMEY TOTAL SPECTER TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED
Page 7
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
CORE ONLY 12. And, for whom would y ou vote for U.S. Senator if the candidates were... Tom R idge, Republican ... and ... Arlen Sp ecter, D emocrat? 35% 13% 2% 6% 3% 15% 26% 1% 48% 41% 10%
DEFINITELY RIDGE PROBABLY RIDGE LEAN RIDGE HARD UNDECIDED/NOT SURE LEAN SPECTER PROBABLY SPECTER DEFINITELY SPECTER REFUSED TOTAL RIDGE TOTAL SPECTER TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED
Page 8
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
Page 9
Now, I have just a few m ore questions for statistical purp oses only ... 13. And, thinking a little about y our political attitudes... Do you consider yourself to be... Conservative Moderate ...OR ... Liberal CORE 18% 20% 40% 11% 8%
14.
GOP 32% 27% 34% 5% 1%
2% *
2% --
38% 59%
59% 39%
VERY CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE MODERATE SOMEWHAT LIBERAL VERY LIBERAL NOT SURE REFUSED TOTAL CONSERVATIVE TOTAL MODERATE/LIBERAL
Other than being an American, what is your main racial or ethnic heritage? CORE GOP 82% 96% 13% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% * 2% 1%
CAUCASIAN OR WHITE AFRICAN-AMERICAN OR BLACK HISPANIC ASIAN OTHER REFUSED
09154 PA Statewide May 3-4, 2009
15.
Page 10
Regardless of how you may feel today...for which of the following candidates did you vote for President... CORE GOP 41% 73% 52% 20% 1% 1% ...OR ... 1% 1% * 2% 1% 2%
16.
* 2% 1% 2%
John M cCain Barack Obama Ralph Nader Bob Barr SOMEONE ELSE DID NOT VOTE DON’T KNOW/DON’T RECALL REFUSED
Gender. Are you employed outside of the home, are you a homemaker, or are you retired? CORE GOP 31% 32% * * 13% 14% 3% 3%
MALE/EMPLOYED MALE/HOMEM AKER MALE/RETIRED MALE/NOT IN LABOR FORCE
27% 10% 12% 3%
25% 8% 16% 1%
FEMALE/EMPLOYED FEMALE/HOMEMA KER FEMALE/RETIRED FEMALE/NOT IN LABOR FORCE
*
--
MALE REFUSED
*
*
FEMALE REFUSED
48% 52%
50% 50%
TOTAL MALE TOTAL FEMALE
