Gop Death List

DRAFT

Competitive House Republican Races AK-AL AZ-01 IL-11 NJ-03 NJ-07 NY-13 NY-25 VA-11 FL-24 NY-29 MI-07 MD-01 NM-01 OH-16 CA-04 NC-08 CO-04 MI-09 CT-04 IL-10 LA-04 MN-03 MO-06 NM-02 NV-03 NY-26 OH-15 WA-08 MO-09 OH-01 PA-03 MN-06 WY-AL AL-02 CA-50 FL-08 FL-13 FL-21 FL-25 IL-06 OH-02 PA-06 ID-01 VA-02 AZ-03 VA-05 TX-10 NJ-05

Don Young OPEN (Renzi)--Hay OPEN (Weller)-Ozinga OPEN (Saxton)--Myers OPEN (Ferguson)--Lance OPEN (Fossella)--Straniere OPEN (Walsh)--Sweetland OPEN (Davis)--Fimian Tom Feeney Randy Kuhl Tim Walberg OPEN (Gilchrest)--Harris OPEN (Wilson)--White OPEN (Regula)--Schuring

Ethan Berkowitz Ann Kirkpatrick Debbie Halvorson John H. Adler Linda O. Stender Michael E. McMahon Dan Maffei Gerry Connolly Suzanne Kosmas Eric Massa Mark Schauer Frank M. Kratovil Jr Martin Heinrich John A. Boccieri

OPEN (Doolittle)--McClintock

Charles Brown

Robin Hayes Marilyn Musgrave

Larry Kissell

Joe Knollenberg Christopher Shays Mark Kirk ~PEN (McCrery)--Runoff 11 OPEN (Ramstad)-Paulsen Sam Graves OPEN (Pearce)--Tinslety Jon Porter OPEN (Reynolds)--Lee OPEN (Pryce)--Stivers Dave Reichert OPEN (Hulshof)--luetkemeyer

Steve Chabot Phil English Michele Bachmann OPEN (Cubin)--Lummis OPEN (Everett)--Love Brian Bilbray Ric Keller Vern Buchanan Lincoln Diaz-Balart Mario Diaz-Balart Peter Roskam Jean Schmidt Jim Gerlach Bill Sali Thelma Drake John Shadegg Virgil Goode Michael McCaul Scott Garrett

Betsy Markey Gary Peters Jim Himes Dan Seals Runoff 11/4 Ashwin Madia Kay Barnes Harry Teague Dina Titus Alice Kryzan Mary Jo Kilroy Darcy Burner Judith W Baker Steven Leo Oriehaus Kathleen Oahlkemper Elwyn Tinklenberg Gary Trauner Bobby Neal Bright Nicholas Leibham Alan Grayson Christine Jennings Raul L. Martinez Joe Garcia Jill Morgenthaler Victoria Wulsin Robert Roggio Walter Minnick Glenn Nye Bob Lord Tom Perriello Larry Joe Doherty Dennis Shulman

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

-!, -!, -!, -!, -!, -!, -!, -!, -!, -!, -!,

-!, -!, -!,

t -!, -!, -!,

-!,

-!, -!, -!,

t t

-!,

-!,

$275,887 $123,870 $175,508 $287,832 $258,032 $84,427 $136,671 $718,630 $736,226 $374,722 $691,635 $749,060 $678,371 $127,606 $94,214 $1,113,272 $798,310 $1,947,431 $1,790,385 $1,814,770 $1,100,918 $521,779 $456,116 $835,950 $327,198 $570,127 $1,194,150 $42,901 $828,651 $394,011 $1,368,186 $201,906 $306,682 $382,375 $982,636 $277,637 $1,742,662 $1,132,082 $1,103,367 $346,501 $701,482 $202,377 $706,867 $923,312 $686,050 $597,740 $570, 777

10/23/20089:25 AM $383,842 $306,384 $274,545

$1,275,514 $602,285 $482,984 $598,624 $646,252 $356,280 $401,061 $856,148 $517,602 $327,608 $464,479 $456,833 $250,134 $381,894 $472,108 $441,228 $240,479 $995,003 $304,284 $147,087

$245,832 $115,379 $569,772 $770,988 $325,958 $362,270 $274,850 $356,721 $595,912 $66,189 $333,997 $310,271 $330,094 $1,118,166 $373,047 $160,800 $304,798 $216,408 $176,844

$349,349 $149,905 $321,232 $220,675 $279,096

Bush 61% Bush 54% Bush 53% Bush 51% Bush 530(0 Bush 55% Kerry 50% Bush 50% Bush 55% Bush 56% Bush 54% Bush 62% Kerry 51 % Bush 54% Bush 61% Bush 54% Bush 58% Bush 58% Kerry 52% Kerry 53% Bush 59% Bush 51% Bush 57% Bush 58% Bush 50% Bush 55% Bush 50% Kerry 51% Bush 59% Bush 51% Bush 53% Bush 57% Bush 69% Bush 67% Bush 55% Bush 55% Bush 56% Bush 57% Bush 56% Bush 53% Bush 63% Kerry 51% Bush 69% Bush 58% Bush 58% Bush 56% Bush 62% Bush 57%

R+14 R+2 R+1 D+3 R+1 D+1 D+3 R+1 R+3 R+5 R+2 R+10 D+2 R+4 R+11 R+3 R+9 R+O D+5 D+4 R+7 R+1 R+5 R+6 D+1 R+3 R+1 0+2 R+7 R+1 R+2 R+5 R+19 R+13 R+5 R+3 R+4 R+6 R+4 R+3 R+13 D+2 R+19 R+6 R+6 R+6 R+13 R+4

Young 57'% Renzi 51% Weller 55% Saxton 59% Ferguson 50% Fossella 57% Walsh 51% Davis 55% Feeney 57% Kuh151% Walberg 51% Gilchrest 68% Wilson 50% Regula 58% Doolittle 49% Hayes 50% Musgrave 46% Knollenberg 54% Shays 50% Kirk 53% McCrery 58% Ramstad 65% Graves 61% Pearce 62% Porter 48% Reynolds 52% Pryce 51% Reichert 51 % Hulshof 61% Chabot 53% English 54% Bachmann 49% Cubin 48.3% Everett 69% Bilbray 54% Keller 53% Buchanan 50% Oiaz-Balart 59% Oiaz-Balart 58% Roskam 53% Schmidt 51% Gerlach 51% Sali 50% Drake 51% Shaddegg 58% Goode 59% McCaul 55% Garrett 55%

$692K $2M $2.2M $1.9M $2.2M $1.3M $2.7M $1.43M $1M $2.7M $1.5M $1.6M $1.7M $2M $1.9M $667K $1.2.M $862K $1.5M $1.5M $830K $1.2M $916K $916K $1.6M $949K $941K $1.1M $198K

$658K

$1.4M $1.4M

=

Competitive House Republican Races NE-02

lee Terry

Jim Esch

2

KY-02

OPEN (lewis)--Guthrie

David Boswell

NV-02 FL-15

Dean Heller OPEN (Weldon)--Posey

Jill Derby

2 2

Steve Blythe

1

IL-18 PA-18

OPEN (laHood)-Schock

Colleen Callahan Stephen Paul Odonnell

1 1

TX-07

John Culberson Frank Wolf

Michael Peter Skelly

1

Judy Feder

OPEN (Hobson)--Austria

Sharen Neuhardt

1 1

VA-10 OH-07

Tim Murphy

10/23/20089:25 AM

DRAFT

Cash on Hand numbers as of September 30, 2008

{,

$514,338 $680,238

$266,247

Bush 68%

$232,103

Bush 65%

R+9 R+13

Terry 55% Lewis 56%

$405,997

$245,767

$220,700 $466,301

$9,256

Bush 57% Bush 57%

R+8 R+4

Weldon 56%

$53,168

Bush 58%

R+5

$1,094,819

$102,942

Bush 54%

R+2

$744,056

$1,140,775

$1,007,139 $279,798

$647,796

Bush 64% Bush 55%

R+16 R+5

$214,553

Bush 57%

R+6

Trend=Momentum in the Race ({, is bad for incumbent)

Heller 51% LaHood 67% Murphy 58% Culberson 59% Wolf 57% Hobson 61%

Ranking System 5--seat is most likely gone unless significant turn of events 4--leaning Democrat; expect to lose most of these seats unless there's serious change 3--true toss-up, slight wind could push either way; environment is critical to these races

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTE: This document is confidential. It is intended for your information only and any disclosure, copying or unauthorized distribution is prohibited.

2--leaning Republican; if there's a wave, several could be in trouble 1--should be ok but if there's a wave, we could see a surprise

DRAFT

Competitive House Democrat Races

FL-16

I AL-05 NH-01 I I

I

PA-10 TX-22 GA-08 WI-08 AZ-05 LA-06 MS-01 OR-05 PA-11 KS-02

Tim Mahoney

Tom Rooney

5

{.

$190,225

$370,724

OPEN (Cramer)--Griffith

Wayne Parker

3

t

$254,821

$127,253

Carol Shea-Porter Chris Carney

Jeb Bradley Christopher Hackett

3

{. {.

$165,949

$507,551 $584,198

Nick Lampson

Peter Graham Olson

Jim Marshall

Rick Goddard John Gard

Steve Kagen

3 3 2 2

Harry Mitchell Don Cazayoux Travis Childers

David Schweikert

OPEN (Hooley)--Schrader

Mike Erickson Louis J. Barletta

2 2

Lynn Jenkins

2 1

Paul Kanjorski Nancy Bayda

William Cassidy Greg Davis

Michael E. Sodrel Timothy Bee

2 2

t

2

Bush 51% Bush 60% Bush 64%

R+2

Mahoney 49%

$1.5M

R+6

Cramer 100%

$825K

R+O R+8

Shea-Porter 51 %

$1.1M

R+15

Carney 53% Lampson 52%

$10K $1.5M

Marshall 51%

$1,175,912

$480,042

$1,098,012

Bush 53%

R+8

$607,712

$668,821 $547,253

Bush 55%

R+4 R+4

$149,946 $476,881

$251,226

$37,924

Bush 54% Bush 59%

$302,206 $232,912 $1,349,801

Bush 50% Kerry 53%

$553,287 $263,806

$622,330

1

$255,005

$917,335 $1,022,121 $691,793 $762,795 $1,174,130

t

Bush 54% Bush 60%

$330,673 $468,630

$177,618 $41,763 {. {.

10/23/20089:25 AM

IN-09

Baron Hill

AZ-08

Gabrielle Giffords

CA-11

Jerry McNerney

Dean Andal

1

$849,727

IL-14 KY-03

Bill Foster John Yarmuth

Jim Oberweis

1

$324,028

PA-04

Jason Altmire

Anne Northup Melissa Hart

1 1

$764,150 $811,946

$684,909

Bush 62%

R+7 R+10

Kagen 51%

0+1

Childers 54% Hooley 56%

0+5 R+7

Kanjorski 72% Boyda 51%

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTE: This document is confidential. It is intended for your information only and any disclosure, copying or distribution is prohibited.

$2M $740K $1.1M $1.2M $282K

Bush 59% Bush 59%

R+7

Hill 49%

Bush 53%

R+1

Giffords 54%

$1.64M $740K

Bush 54%

R+3

McNerney 53%

$570K

Bush 55% Kerry 51 %

R+5 0+2

Foster 52% Yarmuth 51%

$659K

Bush 54%

R+3

Altmire 52%

$554K

~ 5~Df~~ (these ate from pent Cash on Hand numbers as of September 30, 2008

$475K

Mitchell 51 % Cazayoux 49%

$1.2M

$1M

. ;,

.

"

Ie

Trend=Momentum in the Race ({. is bad 5--seat is most likely gone unless significant turn of events 4--leaning Republican for incumbent) 3--true toss-up, slight wind could push either way; environment is critical to these races

2--leaning democrat 1--outside shot of an upset

Competitive Senate Republican Races

10/23/20089:25 AM

DRAFT

NM

OPEN (Domenici)--Pearce

Tom Udall

5

VA AK

OPEN (Warner)--Gilmore

Mark Warner

5

Ted Stevens

Mark Begich

4

CO

OPEN (Allard)--Schaffer

Mark Udall

4

NC

Elizabeth Dole

Kay Hagen

4

MS

Roger Wicker

Ronnie Musgrove

3

NH

John Sununu

Jeanne Shaheen

3

MN

Norm Coleman

AI Franken

3

OR

Gordon Smith

Jeff Merkley

3

KY

Mitch McConnell

Bruce Lunsford

2

GA

Saxby Chambliss

James Martin

2

ME

Susan Collins

Tom Allen

1

Bush 50%

-1-1-1$1,664,219

t

$3,629,029

-1-

$5,107,379 $778,961 $3,649,388 $880,282 $716,180 $1-763,014 $2,782,815 $569A34

Bush 54% Bush 61% Bush 52% Bush 56% Bush 60% Kerry 50% Kerry 51% Kerry 52% Bush 60% Bush 58%

$3,345,075

Kerry 54% Ranking System

Cash on Hand numbers as of September 30, 2008 except for numbers in

as of June 30, 2008.

Trend=Momentum in the Race (-1- is bad for incumbent)

5--seat is most likely gone unless significant turn of events 4--leaning Democrat; expect to lose most of these seats unless there's serious change 3--true toss-up, slight wind could push either way; environment is critical to these races

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTE: This document is confidential. It is intended for your information only and any disclosure, copying or distribution is prohibited.

2--leaning Republican; if there's a wave, some could be in trouble

1--should be ok but if there's a wave, we could see a surprise