Goa's Urbanisation And The Impact Of Sea Level Rise-by Dr. Nandkumar M Kamat

Problems of Goa’s unsustainable urbanisation and the future threat from sea level rise By Dr. Nandkumar M. Kamat Lecturer, Goa University Member, state level steering committee (SLSC), Ministry of Urban development, JNNURM, Govt. of India, 2008

Area shaded in Red shows the focus of urbanisation-at present and for future

Population Projection Talukawise Assignment North Goa

1981 (%)

1986 (%)

1991 (%)

Tiswadi

131941 (13.1)

139033 (12.8)

Bardez

153913 (15.3)

Pernem

1996 (%)

2001 (%)

2006 (%)

2011( %)

146443 (12.5)

155026 157948 (12.2) (11.8)

175517 (11.7)

181617 (11.0)

170766 (15.7)

189383 (16.2)

211089 226447 (16.7) (16.8)

264945 (17.6)

288656 (17.5)

59352 (5.9)

62927 (5.8)

66689 (5.7)

71032 (5.6)

72816 (5.4)

81414 (5.4)

84761 (5.1)

Bicholim

74089 (7.4)

79156 (7.3)

84532 (7.2)

90731 (7.2)

93723 (7.0)

105594 (7.0)

110780 (6.7)

Satari

40838 (4.1)

44984 (4.1)

49530 (4.2)

54810 (4.3)

58376 (4.3)

67810 (4.5)

73348 (4.4)

Ponda

107888 (10.7)

117644 (10.8)

128227 (11.0)

140467 148097 (11.1) (11.0)

170296 (11.3)

182349 (11.1)

Sub Total

568021 (56.4)

614511 (56.6)

664804 (56.8)

723155 757407 (57.1) (56.4)

865576 (57.5)

921511 (56.9)

Population Projection Talukawise Assignment North Goa

1981 (%)

1986 (%)

1991 (%)

Tiswadi

131941 (13.1)

139033 (12.8)

Bardez

153913 (15.3)

Pernem

1996 (%)

2001 (%)

2006 (%)

2011( %)

146443 (12.5)

155026 157948 (12.2) (11.8)

175517 (11.7)

181617 (11.0)

170766 (15.7)

189383 (16.2)

211089 226447 (16.7) (16.8)

264945 (17.6)

288656 (17.5)

59352 (5.9)

62927 (5.8)

66689 (5.7)

71032 (5.6)

72816 (5.4)

81414 (5.4)

84761 (5.1)

Bicholim

74089 (7.4)

79156 (7.3)

84532 (7.2)

90731 (7.2)

93723 (7.0)

105594 (7.0)

110780 (6.7)

Satari

40838 (4.1)

44984 (4.1)

49530 (4.2)

54810 (4.3)

58376 (4.3)

67810 (4.5)

73348 (4.4)

Ponda

107888 (10.7)

117644 (10.8)

128227 (11.0)

140467 148097 (11.1) (11.0)

170296 (11.3)

182349 (11.1)

Sub Total

568021 (56.4)

614511 (56.6)

664804 (56.8)

723155 757407 (57.1) (56.4)

865576 (57.5)

921511 (56.9)

Population Projection Talukawise Assignment South Goa

1981

Mormuga o

1986

1991 1996 2001 2006

2011

98541 (8.8)

108994 (10.0)

120503 (10.3)

133901 148790 (10.6) (11.1)

167027 (11.1)

195857 (11.9)

193755 (19.2)

206457 (19.0)

219897 (18.8)

235393 251988 (18.6) (18.7)

272512 (18.1)

307844 (18.7)

Quepem

55593 (5.5)

59902 (5.5)

64518 (5.5)

69839 (5.5)

75602 (5.6)

82678 (5.5)

94446 (5.7)

Sanguem

55904 (5.5)

57616 (5.3)

59355 (5.1)

61455 (4.8)

63630 (4.7)

66557 (4.4)

72723 (4.4)

Canacona

35935(3 .6)

38259 (3.5)

40716 (3.5)

43549 (3.4)

46581 (3.5)

50333 (3.3)

56811 (3.4)

Sub Total

439728( 43.6)

471229( 504989( 43.4) 43.2)

544138 586592 (42.9) (43.6)

639107 (42.5)

727681 (44.1)

100774 1085739 1169793 9 9(100) (100) (100)

126729 134399 3(100) 8(100)

150468 2 (100)

1649192 (100)

Salcete

Total

Note : Mid-point growth rate of 1.558 during the decade (1986-1996) is taken

Population Projection Urban-Rural Components of Population

• The decadal growth rate of urban population during (1981-1991) has been 48.63% Year 

Urban Component (% of Total Population)

Urban Population

1981

32.03

322782

1991

41.01

479732

2001

53.04

728222

2011

65.08

1073294

Population Projection Rural-Urban Composition Taluka

Urban Rural Population Population (2011) (2011)

Population of Taluka at 2011

North Goa Tiswadi

126705 (69.8)

54912 (30.2)

181617

Bardez

224682 (77.8)

63974 (22.2)

288656

Pernem

45173 (53.3)

39588 (46.7)

84761

Bicholim

45275 (40.9)

65505 (59.1)

110780

Satari

24975 (34.1)

48373 (65.9)

73348

Ponda

127951 (70.2)

54398 (29.8)

182349

Total

594761 (64.6)

326750 (35.4)

921511

Marmugao

184696 (94.3)

11161 (15.7)

195857

Salcete

178749 (58.1)

129095 (41.9)

307844

Quepem

59179 (62.6)

35267 (37.4)

94446

Sanguem

14571 (20.0)

58152 (80.0)

72723

Canacona

17463 (30.7)

39348 (69.3)

56811

454658 (62.5)

273023 (37.5)

727681

1049419 (63.6)

599773 (36.4)

1649192

South Goa

Total Total Goa

Urbanization from space Satellite images of Goa’s urban areas and the problem spots Mapusa, Pernem, Siolim, Panaji, Porvorim, Bicholim, Ponda, Marmagoa-Vasco, Sanquelim, Margao and Salcete etc.

Margao’s urban sprawl

Central Margao

Salcete ubanisation

Quepem

Bicholim

Bicholim bus stand near the river

Sanquelim town and outskirts

Sanquelim topohydrography

Image mosaic of Bardez coastline-dense settlements

THREATS TO URABNISATION INDIA’S COASTAL CITIES ARE IN DANGER Global warming, sea level rise and coastal urban centres:- a quick tour of the vulnerable areas

We can not wait for the Indian version

World is reacting but We are slow learners… • • • •

Latur and Bhuj earthquakes Orissa supercyclone Asian Tsunami The deluge in Ahmedabad and Mumbai after record rains • Probably the kicking action by nature prompted the lawmakers to respond with a far reaching legislative remedy

Human exposure to sea-level rise is significant and growing • Global-mean sea level rose at least 10 cm during the 20th Century • This rise is expected to continue • Likely to accelerate due to human-induced warming during the 21st Century. • Coastal zones in world account for 25% of population • Coastal population are increasing due to migrations • The highest population density occur seaward across the near-coastal zone, below 20 m elevation ( many coastal cities and towns in India fall in this category) • Urbanisation is an important trend and 20 large coastal cities (>8 million people) are projected for 2010, together with many more smaller cities and towns clustered close to the coastline

Global-mean sea-level rise will result in a range of impacts

increased flood risk and submergence • salinisation of surface and ground waters and morphological change, • such as erosion and wetland loss •

The natural-system effects of sea-level rise have a range of potential socio-economic impacts Increased loss of property and coastal habitats Increased flood risk and potential loss of life Damage to coastal protection works and other infrastructure Loss of renewable and subsistence resources Loss of tourism, recreation, and transportation functions Loss of non-monetary cultural resources and values Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality

Coastal cities are always vulnerable to climate changes Most of the people residing in coastal zones are directly dependent on natural resource bases of coastal ecosystems Any global warming-induced climatic change such as increase in sea surface temperature, change in frequency, intensity or tracks of cyclones, sea level rise may aggravate the potential risks to coastal zones

UNEP report (1989) has identified India as one amongst 27 countries which are most vulnerable to the impacts of global warming related accelerated sea level rise

Why India’s coastline is vulnerable to SLR?

• Large low-lying coastal areas such as Kutch, Saurashtra, parts of Konkan, Goa, Malabar, regions near river deltas • unsustainable settlements • high population density • high settlement density • Increased interference in natural defense barriers (sand dunes, mangroves, wetlands )

The worst affected regions from physical point of view • Land area loss >Gujarat and West Bengal

• Highest land area loss> Goa-4-5% of total area

• Impact on Population >West Bengal, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu (on account of high population density in coastal cities)

The vulnerabilty of area and population of coastal states to SLR

The consequences of the deluge… • India’s coastal states would lose about 6000 sq. kms. area • About 7-8 million people would be affected • Most vulnerable areas on west coast> Kutch, Mumbai, coastal Goa, South Kerala. • On east coast> urban centres near deltas of river Ganges (West Bengal), Cauvery (Tamil Nadu), Krishna and Godawari (Andhra Pradesh), Mahanadi (Orissa) • Islands of Lakshadweep archipelago would be submerged

Circles denote vulnerable coastal areas

East-West geomorphological profile of India’s coasts

The east coast does not have solid defenses

A quick tour of some vulnerable cities from Gujarat to West Bengal

Points to remember….as you watch these images… • Most of the cities do not have the topography in their favour to withstand SLR • Mean elevation ranges from 0- 20 metres with heavily built coastal areas just within 1-7 m above sea level • The first impact of SLR would be felt by the low lying areas

Dwaraka-Gujarat-may again be swallowed by sea

Dwaraka-This area is just a few met. above sea level…

It would be a hopeless situation for Gandhiji’s Porbander too…

Porbander is encroaching on its’ beaches…and may pay a price after SLR

Veraval the ancient port is threatened by SLR

But the builders won’t stop to use every inch of land…

Close to Veraval is famous Somnath temple-it may be isolated

Surat is heavily built in low lying estuarine areas of Narmada

On central west coast ,time is running out for such areas of Mumbai

Low lying areas of Mumbai are vulnerable to SLR

What would be the fate of these Mumbai slums when the sea moves in here?

Residents from such slums in Mumbai need to be urgently rehabilitated to higher grounds

Alibag is built just 2-7 m above sea level and may face a deluge..

Small coastal towns in Konkan like Malvan are also vulnerable

Panaji may loose the densely populated low lying areas to the sea

Densely populated Salcete coast would be submerged

Naval base may not be able to save coastal parts of Karwar

Unsustainable growth of Mangalore spells dooms after SLR

Coastal parts of Mangalore are vulnerable to SLR

Most of Kochi-Cochin is just 5-8 m above sea level-densely settled…

Overbuilt Chennai may be vulnerable to SLR

SLR may impact coastal wetlands and backwaters like Pulicat

The coastal parts of Vizag may face the brunt of SLR

Kolkata with many low lying areas needs to wake up to SLR challenge…

No future for Diamond harbour after SLR!

Tasks ahead… • How coastal urban India would plan for the worst case scenarios?. • What is the present status of planning and preparedness and what are the possibilities for ensuring sustainable urbanization and disaster mitigation?. • How much time we have before the disaster strikes?. • What role the government, the media, the civil society could play?.

A judicious and effective use of the disaster management bill, 2005 is necessary for research in vulnerability studies, capacity building, new land use policies etc.

"disaster management" means a continuous and integrated process of planning, organising, coordinating and implementing measures which are necessary or expedient for (i) prevention of danger or threat of any disaster; (ii) mitigation or reduction of risk of any disaster or its severity or consequences; (iii) capacity-building; (iv) preparedness to deal with any disaster; (v) prompt response to any threatening disaster situation or disaster; (vi) assessing the severity or magnitude of effects of any disaster; (vii) evacuation, rescue and relief; (viii) rehabilitation and reconstruction;

References • Kamat, N. (2001). Urbanization in Goa: the past 2000 years: a short review, Govapuri, April-June 2001, pp.12-21 • Census of India reports, 1971 to 2001 • Govt. of Goa, economic survey-2001 to 2007 • Google earth images form earth.google.com • Regional plan, Goa, 2001, 2011 • United nations reports and research papers

Dhananyavad Thank you