Future Trends In Healthcare That Will Impact Ascs V4
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Acute Event
Prevention Screening
Diagnosis
Monitoring Treatment Plus
Chronic Disease
Future Trends in Healthcare:
Impact on ASCs
Ogan Gurel, MD MPhil Aesis Research Group, LLC [email protected]
12th Annual Ambulatory Surgery Center Conference Chicago, IL October 21st, 2005
Outline
Change
The Future of Healthcare
Imperatives for ASCs
Competitive forces cause change • Entry of hospitals • Relaxation of CON • Aging of the population •Emphasis of baby-boomers on convenience and seamlessness
• Growing influence of device companies
• Consumer-directed health plans
• Relative physician/surgeon shortages
• Growing influence of Federal government
• Physician work-life balance issues
• Emphasis on quality measures • BBA II?
• Emerging technologies • Convergence of diagnosis and treatment Source: Porter, Michael, On Competition, 1995
Change can be incremental or disruptive
Source: Christensen, Clayton et al, Seeing What’s Next, 2004
Outline
Change
The Future of Healthcare
Imperatives for ASCs
The hospital as center of care
Acute Event Diagnosis
Chronic Disease
Treatment
Care is now decentralized and fragmented Acute Event
Prevention
Screening
Diagnosis
Monitoring
Treatment Plus
Chronic Disease
The future will demand more integration and coordination Prevention
Acute Event
Screening
Chronic Disease
Diagnosis
SubDiagnosis
Treatment Plus
Monitoring
Buyer driven forces • Aging of the population •Emphasis of baby-boomers on convenience and seamlessness • Consumer-directed health plans • Growing influence of Federal government • Emphasis on quality measures • BBA II?
Source: Porter, Michael, On Competition, 1995
Growth of Over-65 Age Group Accelerates After 2010 Forecasted Percent Change US, 2004-2014
The Baby Boomers US, 2004-2014 Millions
Total
10.7%
45-64 86
65-UP
22.4%
76 66
45-64
19.7%
56
65 + 18-44
6.3%
46 36 2004
00-17
3.0%
Source: Sg2 Analysis, 2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
2012
2014
Supplier-driven forces
• Growing influence of device companies • Relative physician/surgeon shortages • Physician work-life balance issues
Potential entrants • Entry of hospitals • Relaxation of CON
Source: Porter, Michael, On Competition, 1995
Substitutes
• Emerging technologies • Convergence of diagnosis and treatment Source: Porter, Michael, On Competition, 1995
Key disruptive technologies CV Cancer & General Surgery
Neuro/Ortho
Carotid stenting Less invasive intervention Non-invasive angiography Targeted therapies MIS advances Virtual colonoscopy HIFU Image-guided surgery Carotid stenting Image-guided surery Robotic surgery MIS advances (hip,knee,spine)
Outline
Change
The Future of Healthcare
Imperatives for ASCs
Imperatives for ASCs
In order to meet the changes in the future ASCs …
Must provide coordinated, seamless care
Must address increasingly complex conditions and must address more than just the medical / surgical problem
Must consider alliances to help address these challenges
Must measure quality
Must “ride the IT wave” or be rendered irrelevant
Must increasingly consider the integration of imaging (and diagnosis) to their operations
Must be increasingly aware that the federal government (Medicare, etc.) are not just “bystanders” in the process. Regulation and compliance are critical
Must keep costs down – reimbursements will not be increasing and may very well decrease (though without compromising quality)
Must keep physicians happy … which is not always about money
Must be flexible enough to accommodate technology changes. “Onetrick” ASCs have a limited future
Æsis Research Group Ogan Gurel, MD MPhil Providing forward-looking information, intelligence and research services to healthcare investment decision-makers Facilitating hospital-clinician relationships to help implement and move forward strategic, operational and facilities initiatives 11 S. LaSalle Street, 5th Floor, Chicago, IL 60603 T (312) 423-2764 | F (773) 409-5897 | M (312) 543-9019 [email protected]
Prevention Screening
Diagnosis
Monitoring Treatment Plus
Chronic Disease
Future Trends in Healthcare:
Impact on ASCs
Ogan Gurel, MD MPhil Aesis Research Group, LLC [email protected]
12th Annual Ambulatory Surgery Center Conference Chicago, IL October 21st, 2005
Outline
Change
The Future of Healthcare
Imperatives for ASCs
Competitive forces cause change • Entry of hospitals • Relaxation of CON • Aging of the population •Emphasis of baby-boomers on convenience and seamlessness
• Growing influence of device companies
• Consumer-directed health plans
• Relative physician/surgeon shortages
• Growing influence of Federal government
• Physician work-life balance issues
• Emphasis on quality measures • BBA II?
• Emerging technologies • Convergence of diagnosis and treatment Source: Porter, Michael, On Competition, 1995
Change can be incremental or disruptive
Source: Christensen, Clayton et al, Seeing What’s Next, 2004
Outline
Change
The Future of Healthcare
Imperatives for ASCs
The hospital as center of care
Acute Event Diagnosis
Chronic Disease
Treatment
Care is now decentralized and fragmented Acute Event
Prevention
Screening
Diagnosis
Monitoring
Treatment Plus
Chronic Disease
The future will demand more integration and coordination Prevention
Acute Event
Screening
Chronic Disease
Diagnosis
SubDiagnosis
Treatment Plus
Monitoring
Buyer driven forces • Aging of the population •Emphasis of baby-boomers on convenience and seamlessness • Consumer-directed health plans • Growing influence of Federal government • Emphasis on quality measures • BBA II?
Source: Porter, Michael, On Competition, 1995
Growth of Over-65 Age Group Accelerates After 2010 Forecasted Percent Change US, 2004-2014
The Baby Boomers US, 2004-2014 Millions
Total
10.7%
45-64 86
65-UP
22.4%
76 66
45-64
19.7%
56
65 + 18-44
6.3%
46 36 2004
00-17
3.0%
Source: Sg2 Analysis, 2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
2012
2014
Supplier-driven forces
• Growing influence of device companies • Relative physician/surgeon shortages • Physician work-life balance issues
Potential entrants • Entry of hospitals • Relaxation of CON
Source: Porter, Michael, On Competition, 1995
Substitutes
• Emerging technologies • Convergence of diagnosis and treatment Source: Porter, Michael, On Competition, 1995
Key disruptive technologies CV Cancer & General Surgery
Neuro/Ortho
Carotid stenting Less invasive intervention Non-invasive angiography Targeted therapies MIS advances Virtual colonoscopy HIFU Image-guided surgery Carotid stenting Image-guided surery Robotic surgery MIS advances (hip,knee,spine)
Outline
Change
The Future of Healthcare
Imperatives for ASCs
Imperatives for ASCs
In order to meet the changes in the future ASCs …
Must provide coordinated, seamless care
Must address increasingly complex conditions and must address more than just the medical / surgical problem
Must consider alliances to help address these challenges
Must measure quality
Must “ride the IT wave” or be rendered irrelevant
Must increasingly consider the integration of imaging (and diagnosis) to their operations
Must be increasingly aware that the federal government (Medicare, etc.) are not just “bystanders” in the process. Regulation and compliance are critical
Must keep costs down – reimbursements will not be increasing and may very well decrease (though without compromising quality)
Must keep physicians happy … which is not always about money
Must be flexible enough to accommodate technology changes. “Onetrick” ASCs have a limited future
Æsis Research Group Ogan Gurel, MD MPhil Providing forward-looking information, intelligence and research services to healthcare investment decision-makers Facilitating hospital-clinician relationships to help implement and move forward strategic, operational and facilities initiatives 11 S. LaSalle Street, 5th Floor, Chicago, IL 60603 T (312) 423-2764 | F (773) 409-5897 | M (312) 543-9019 [email protected]
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