Forces That Move Stock Prices

Forces That Move Stock Prices Stock prices are determined in the marketplace, where seller supply meets buyer demand. There is no clean equation that tells us exactly how a stock price will behave, but we do know a few things about the forces that move a stock up or down. These forces fall into three categories: fundamental factors, technical factors and market sentiment.

1) Fundamental Factors In an efficient market, stock prices would be determined primarily by fundamentals, which, at the basic level, refer to a combination of two things: 1) An earnings base (earings per share (EPS), for example) and 2) a valuation multiple (a P/E ratio, for example). An owner of a common stock has a claim on earnings, and earnings per share (EPS) is the owner's return on his or her investment. When you buy a stock, you are purchasing a proportional share of an entire future stream of earnings. That's the reason for the valuation multiple: it is the price you are willing to pay for the future stream of earnings. Part of these earnings may be distributed as dividends, while the remainder will be retained by the company (on your behalf) for reinvestment. We can think of the future earnings stream as a function of both the current level of earnings and the expected growth in this earnings base. As shown in the diagram, the valuation multiple (P/E), or the stock price as some multiple of EPS, is a way of representing the discounted present value of the anticipated future earnings stream. (To learn about present value, see Understanding the Time Value of Money.)

About the Earnings Base Although we are using EPS, an accounting measure, to illustrate the concept of earnings base, there are other measures of earnings power. Many argue that cash-flow based measures are superior. For example, free cash flow per share is used as an alternative measure of earnings power. The way earnings power is measured may also depend on the type of company. Many industries have their own tailored metrics. Real estate investment trusts (REITs), for example, use a special measure of earnings power called funds from operations (FFO). Relatively mature companies are often measured by dividends per share, which represents what the shareholder actually receives. About the Valuation Multiple

The valuation multiple expresses expectations about the future. As we already explained, it is fundamentally based on the discounted present value of the future earnings stream. Therefore, the two key factors here are 1) the expected growth in the earnings base, and 2) the discount rate, which is used to calculate the present value of the future stream of earnings. A higher growth rate will earn the stock a higher multiple, but a higher discount rate will earn a lower multiple. What determines the discount rate? First, it is a function of perceived risk. A riskier stock earns a higher discount rate, which in turn earns a lower multiple. Second, it is a function of inflation (or interest rates, arguably). Higher inflation earns a higher discount rate, which earns a lower multiple (meaning the future earnings are worth less in inflationary environments).

In summary, the key fundamental factors are: The level of the earnings base (represented by measures such as EPS, cash flow per share, dividends per share) The expected growth in the earnings base The discount rate, which is itself a function of inflation The perceived risk of the stock.

2) Technical Factors Things would be easier if only fundamental factors set stock prices! Technical factors are the mix of external conditions that alter the supply of and demand for a company's stock. Some of these indirectly affect fundamentals. (For example, economic growth indirectly contributes to earnings growth.) Technical factors include the following: Inflation - We mentioned inflation as an input into the valuation multiple, but inflation is a huge driver from a technical perspective as well. Historically, low inflation has had a strong inverse correlation with valuations (low inflation drives high multiples and high inflation drives low multiples). Deflation, on the other hand, is generally bad for stocks because it signifies a loss in pricing power for companies. (To learn more, read All About Inflation.) Economic Strength of Market and Peers - Company stocks tend to track with the market and with their sector or industry peers. Some prominent investment firms argue that the combination of overall market and sector movements - as opposed to a company's individual performance - determines a majority of a stock's movement. (There has been research cited that suggests the economic/market factors account for 90%!) For example, a suddenly negative outlook for one retail stock often hurts other retail stocks as "guilt by association" drags down demand for the whole sector. Substitutes - Companies compete for investment dollars with other asset classes on a global stage. These include corporate bonds, government bonds, commodities, real estate and foreign equities. The relation between demand for U.S. equities and their substitutes is hard to figure, but it plays an important role. Incidental Transactions - Incidental transactions are purchases or sales of a stock that are motivated by something other than belief in the intrinsic value of the stock. These transactions include executive insider transactions, which are often prescheduled or driven by portfolio objectives. Another example is an institution buying or shorting a stock to hedge some other investment. Although these transactions may not represent official "votes cast" for or against the stock, they do impact supply and demand and therefore can move the price. Demographics - Some important research has been done about the demographics of investors. Much of it concerns these two dynamics: 1) middle-aged investors, who are peak earners that tend to invest in the stock

market, and 2) older investors who tend to pull out of the market in order to meet the demands of retirement. The hypothesis is that the greater the proportion of middle-aged investors among the investing population, the greater the demand for equities and the higher the valuation multiples. (For more on this, see Demographic Trends and the Implications for Investment.) Trends - Often a stock simply moves according to a short-term trend. On the one hand, a stock that is moving up can gather momentum, as "success breeds success" and popularity buoys the stock higher. On the other hand, a stock sometimes behaves the opposite way in a trend and does what is called reverting to the mean. Unfortunately, because trends cut both ways and are more obvious in hindsight, knowing that stocks are "trendy" does not help us predict the future. (Note: trends could also be classified under market sentiment.) (For more insight, check out Short-, Intermediate- and Long-Term Trends.) Liquidity - Liquidity is an important and sometimes under-appreciated factor. It refers to how much investor interest and attention a specific stock has. Wal-Mart's stock is highly liquid and therefore highly responsive to material news; the average small-cap company is less so. Trading volume is not only a proxy for liquidity, but it is also a function of corporate communications (that is, the degree to which the company is getting attention from the investor community). Large-cap stocks have high liquidity: they are well followed and heavily transacted. Many small-cap stocks suffer from an almost permanent "liquidity discount" because they simply are not on investors' radar screens. (To learn more, read Diving In To Financial Liquidity.)

3)Market Sentiment Market sentiment refers to the psychology of market participants, individually and collectively. This is perhaps the most vexing category because we know it matters critically, but we are only beginning to understand it. Market sentiment is often subjective, biased and obstinate. For example, you can make a solid judgment about a stock's future growth prospects, and the future may even confirm your projections, but in the meantime the market may myopically dwell on a single piece of news that keeps the stock artificially high or low. And you can sometimes wait a long time in the hope that other investors will notice the fundamentals. (For related reading, see Investors Intelligence Sentiment Index.) Market sentiment is being explored by the relatively new field of behavioral finance. It starts with the assumption that markets are apparently not efficient much of the time, and this inefficiency can be explained by psychology and other social sciences. The idea of applying social science to finance was fully legitimized when Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist, won the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. (He was the first psychologist to do so.) Many of the ideas in behavioral finance confirm observable suspicions: that investors tend to overemphasize data that come easily to mind; that many investors react with greater pain to losses than with pleasure to equivalent gains; and that investors tend to persist in a mistake. Some investors claim to be able to capitalize on the theory of behavioral finance. For the majority, however, the field is new enough to serve as the "catch-all" category, where everything we cannot explain is deposited. Summary Different types of investors depend on different factors. Short-term investors and traders tend to incorporate and may even prioritize technical factors. Long-term investors prioritize fundamentals and recognize that technical factors play an important role. Investors who believe strongly in fundamentals can reconcile themselves to technical forces with the following popular argument: technical factors and market sentiment often overwhelm the short run, but fundamentals will set the stock price in the long-run. In the meantime, we can expect more exciting developments in the area of behavioral finance since traditional financial theories cannot seem to explain everything that happens in the market. What Does Free Cash Flow Per Share Mean?

A measure of a company's financial flexibility that is determined by dividing free cash flow by the total number of shares outstanding. This measure serves as a proxy for measuring changes in earnings per share. Calculated as:

Investopedia explains Free Cash Flow Per Share This measure signals a company's ability to pay debt, pay dividends, buy back stock and facilitate the growth of business. Also, the free cash flow per share can be used to give a preliminary prediction concerning future share prices. For example, when a firm's share price is low and free cash flow is on the rise, the odds are good that earnings and share value will soon be on the up, because a high cash flow per share value means that earnings per share should potentially be high as well. Real Estate Investment Trust - REIT What Does Real Estate Investment Trust - REIT Mean? A security that sells like a stock on the major exchanges and invests in real estate directly, either through properties or mortgages. REITs receive special tax considerations and typically offer investors high yields, as well as a highly liquid method of investing in real estate. Equity REITs: Equity REITs invest in and own properties (thus responsible for the equity or value of their real estate assets). Their revenues come principally from their properties' rents. Mortgage REITs: Mortgage REITs deal in investment and ownership of property mortgages. These REITs loan money for mortgages to owners of real estate, or purchase existing mortgages or mortgage-backed securities. Their revenues are generated primarily by the interest that they earn on the mortgage loans. Hybrid REITs: Hybrid REITs combine the investment strategies of equity REITs and mortgage REITs by investing in both properties and mortgages. Investopedia explains Real Estate Investment Trust - REIT Individuals can invest in REITs either by purchasing their shares directly on an open exchange or by investing in a mutual fund that specializes in public real estate. An additional benefit to investing in REITs is the fact that many are accompanied by dividend reinvestment plans (DRIPs). Among other things, REITs invest in shopping malls, office buildings, apartments, warehouses and hotels. Some REITs will invest specifically in one area of real estate - shopping malls, for example - or in one specific region, state or country. Investing in REITs is a liquid, dividend-paying means of participating in the real estate market. What Does Discount Rate Mean? 1. The interest rate that an eligible depository institution is charged to borrow short-term funds directly from a Federal Reserve Bank. 2. The interest rate used in determining the present value of future cash flows. Investopedia explains Discount Rate 1. This type of borrowing from the Fed is fairly limited. Institutions will often seek other means of meeting short-term liquidity needs. The Federal funds discount rate is one of two interest rates the Fed sets, the other being the overnight lending rate, or the Fed funds rate. 2. For example, let's say you expect $1,000 dollars in one year's time. To determine the present value of this $1,000 (what it is worth to you today) you would need to discount it by a particular rate of interest (often the risk-free rate but not always). Assuming a discount rate of 10%, the $1,000 in a year's time would be the equivalent of $909.09 to you today (1000/[1.00 + 0.10]).

Growth Rates What Does Growth Rates Mean? The amount of increase that a specific variable has gained within a specific period and context. For investors, this typically represents the compounded annualized rate of growth of a company's revenues, earnings, dividends and even macro concepts - such as the economy as a whole. Expected forward-looking or trailing growth rates are two common kinds of growth rates used for analysis. Investopedia explains Growth Rates Different types of industries have different benchmarks for rates of growth. For instance, companies that are on the cutting edge of technology would be more likely to have higher annual rates of growth compared to a mature industry, like retail sales. The use of historical growth rates is one of the simplest methods of estimating future growth. However, historically high growth rates don't always mean a high rate of growth looking into the future, because industrial and economic conditions change constantly. For example, the auto industry has higher rates of revenue growth during good economic times. However, in times of recession, consumers would be more inclined to be frugal and not spend disposable income on a new car. Deflation What Does Deflation Mean? A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit. Deflation can be caused also by a decrease in government, personal or investment spending. The opposite of inflation, deflation has the side effect of increased unemployment since there is a lower level of demand in the economy, which can lead to an economic depression. Central banks attempt to stop severe deflation, along with severe inflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive drop in prices to a minimum. The decline in prices of assets, is often known as Asset Deflation. Investopedia explains Deflation Declining prices, if they persist, generally create a vicious spiral of negatives such as falling profits, closing factories, shrinking employment and incomes, and increasing defaults on loans by companies and individuals. To counter deflation, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) can use monetary policy to increase the money supply and deliberately induce rising prices, causing inflation. Rising prices provide an essential lubricant for any sustained recovery because businesses increase profits and take some of the depressive pressures off wages and debtors of every kind. Deflationary periods can be both short or long, relatively speaking. Japan, for example, had a period of deflation lasting decades starting in the early 1990's. The Japanese government lowered interest rates to try and stimulate inflation, to no avail. Zero interest rate policy was ended in July of 2006.

Consumer Price Index - CPI What Does Consumer Price Index - CPI Mean? A measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. The CPI is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them; the goods are weighted according to their importance. Changes in CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living. Sometimes referred to as "headline inflation". Investopedia explains Consumer Price Index - CPI The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics measures two kinds of CPI statistics: CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W), and the chained CPI for all urban consumers (C-CPI-U). Of the two types of CPI, the C-CPI-U is a better representation of the general public, because it accounts for about 87% of the population. CPI is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation. This is because large rises in CPI during a short period of time typically denote periods of inflation and large drops in CPI during a short period of time usually mark periods of deflation. High Net Worth Individual - HNWI What Does High Net Worth Individual - HNWI Mean? A classification used by the financial services industry to denote an individual or a family with high net worth. Although there is no precise definition of how rich somebody must be to fit into this category, high net worth is generally quoted in terms of liquid assets over a certain figure. The exact amount differs by financial institution and region. The categorization is relevant because high net worth individuals generally qualify for separately managed investment accounts instead of regular mutual funds. Investopedia explains High Net Worth Individual - HNWI The most commonly quoted figure for membership in the high net worth "club" is $1 million in liquid financial assets. An investor with less than $1 million but more than $100,000 is considered to be "affluent", or perhaps even "sub-HNWI". The upper end of HNWI is around $5 million, at which point the client is then referred to as "very HNWI". More than $50 million in wealth classifies a person as "ultra HNWI". HNWIs are in high demand by private wealth managers. The more money a person has, the more work it takes to maintain and preserve those assets. These individuals generally demand (and can justify) personalized services in investment management, estate planning, tax planning, and so on.