Executive Issues (october Edition)

Volume 4 - October 2008

Volume 4

October 2008

Presidential Election – Close Contest RB maintains lead, Sata makes inroads in urban areas while Northern Province becomes a major swing area in the October 30 election The October 30 presidential race has come to be between two grey-haired agemates - they are both 71 years old - acting President Rupiah Bwezani Banda and Michael Chilufya Sata. Both are former Lusaka Urban District Governors in the administration of Dr. Kenneth David Kaunda. Both have strongholds. But at this stage at least, Banda has the lead. His lead is attributable to a number of factors, including incumbency and the nationwide spread of the ruling party, on whose ticket he is standing. Banda is the standard-bearer of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) after he convincingly thumped Finance Minister Ngandu Peter Magande and thirteen others in the September 5, election to choose the MMD presidential candidate by the party’s 60-member National Executive Committee(NEC). Sata

of the Patriotic Front (PF) was the already known candidate of his party even though his hand-picked central committee went through the motions of formally rubber-stamping his nomination on August 30. Third in the race is the youthful Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND) who was confirmed the candidate by the party’s National Management Team. The barometer favours Banda but Sata remains the wild card. He is fighting tooth and nail, employing all strategies to catch up with ‘RB’. Banda’s chances have been bolstered by the closing of ranks within the MMD after the September 5 elections. Had the party split after the vote, ‘RB’ would have had a real mountain to climb. But in the event, all the losing candidates pledged to support Banda and some immediately hit the campaign trail. The MMD has 88 Members of Parliament scattered across the country except the Southern Province. This has helped Banda’s team to easily put in motion a nationwide campaign more or less immediately. They all have instructions to deliver their constituencies to Banda if they want to be re-adopted in 2011. “They have to prove themselves and show they can deliver their areas,” said one Banda campaign organizer. The hitch however is that not all the MPs are popular and so they may not perform to expectations. Banda’s chances are also boosted by his incumbency. He campaigns and travels as the acting President. He is the only one who is likely to touch all the 72 districts within the short timeline. Even with all these advantages, Banda faces an uphill battle to convince Zambians that his ‘nice and calm personality’ is not a weakness and that he can be decisive. There are fears that his victory could see the return of the old folks from the United National Independence Party (UNIP), a party Banda belonged to from his youth until 2002. His opponents have insisted that he remains a member of UNIP even though the former ruling party has disputed his membership. To pg 2

Contents Voting Analysis

- Page 3

Oil talks fail



- Page 8

Sata Vs Banda

- Page 4

Zambeef again

- Page 9

Campaigns go cyber

- Page 5

Where is MOSI?

- Page 10

All rights reserved. No portion of this publication may be photocopied, forwarded, reproduced, retransmitted or otherwise redistributed without prior authorization from the publishers. © 2008 by Brentwood Public Affairs Limited. Executive Issues

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Volume 4 - October 2008

Presidential Election – Close Contest This prompted his main rival Sata to dub him “Political Freelancer” who has no party of his own. The consistent attacks by The Post Newspaper, which has links to the Mwanawasa family, may reduce Banda’s support base although minimally as few people take the newspaper seriously nowadays - going by the reactions. The high fuel prices and the continued woes at the University of Zambia remain top on the list of Banda’s negatives-though both are not of his making. Banda is likely to scoop the entire Eastern province, parts of Northern and Luapula, Northwestern and Western Provinces. He may trail the winner in Lusaka, Copperbelt and Southern depending on how the other candidates work out their strategies. This gives him a good lead but not strong enough to assure him of certain victory. Sata or ‘King Cobra’ is no pushover. He is not only a populist but has experience and sheer guile. This election will be the third he will enter as presidential candidate. He was twice trounced by the late President Levy Patrick Mwanawasa in 2001 and 2006. After each defeat, he comes up with a different approach. He is currently capitalizing on Banda’s perceived weaknesses especially on the high food and fuel prices, the premature closure of Zambia’s biggest university (University of Zambia) and the recent salary increments of constitutional office holders, including ministers. He has back-peddled on his earlier position that he would deport Chinese investors if elected. He faces two major negatives. Four months ago, he had to be evacuated by air to South Africa suffering from what was reported to be an acute heart attack. His opponents have turned this misfortune into a political sjambok and they are whipping him pretty hard! It appears to be working especially in the aftermath of the death in office of President Mwanawasa. People are not quite ready to take what they perceive to be “another risk.” Sata’s campaign team knows too well the perils arising from their candidate’s state of health and quickly posted a reply on his official website. It read; “Sata has one of the best medical histories amongst all his political opponents. He has only been hospitalized about once in the last 10 to 15 years.” He himself also joined in the defence and threw a challenge to his rivals: “I’m challenging all the political party presidents that we go and test for three things, HIV, Kaposi Sarcoma and let them examine our hearts,” Sata said.

has mainly been confined to the private sector with little exposure to statecraft. He is expected to win in his native Southern Province and possibly some parts of Central province. He will probably trail Banda in Northwestern and Western Provinces. Some of his consolation ballots are likely to be from Lusaka and the Copperbelt provinces but they are unlikely to catapult him to the top. If he can beat Sata, then his entry into the race will be justified for future elections.

Zambian Airways On Daily Cash Plan

Another negative for Sata is the protracted wrangle with the 26 ‘rebel’ MPs from his party who defied the party directive to boycott the ongoing National Constitution Conference (NCC), a body that is drafting the country’s new constitution. On September 6, the rebel MPs through their spokesman Dr. Peter Machungwa announced that they would not campaign for Sata in their constituencies. “We shall stay away from the campaigns,” Machungwa said. Most of these parliamentarians are from PF strongholds. Even though their actions and stance may not be universally popular, it could make Sata’s campaign difficult as he will now require to touch almost all the constituencies. We hear some of the rebel MPs have hinted their support of Banda. Sata is likely to capture Lusaka and Copperbelt provinces and some parts of Luapula and Northern. He will trail badly in Southern, Western, Eastern and Northwestern Provinces. Sata will certainly need to do a lot of homework in areas such as Southern and Eastern, which command a sizeable number of registered voters. Without them he is likely to be in deficit yet again. . The Youngman, Hichilema or HH, will be in the race for the second time. Whatever his strategy, he probably needed to let go of this one, and possibly enter into some alliance with either MMD or PF. His chances of winning are slim and even he must be aware of it. “We want to announce our presence for 2011,” remarked one of his campaign team members. The much-talked about possible electoral pact with the PF fizzled out the moment election day was named! Each of the two would-collaborators went their separate ways! Reports have it that UPND insiders warned the Youngman that Sata or King Cobra would swallow him alive! He quickly placed Billboards, with his portrait around town before negotiations with PF could begin. Sata denounced him and immediately hit the campaign trail. The would-be marriage came unstuck. Had the marriage worked, Banda and the MMD would have faced a very strong contest. HH officially launched his campaign on September 15. Hundreds of his supporters were bussed to Mulungushi International Conference Centre for the occasion. The rest is as they say history. Hichilema’s main advantage is his relative youth and he is healthy. But he lacks experience in government unlike Sata and Banda who both served as Cabinet Ministers, District Governors and senior party officials before climbing the ladder. Hichilema’s life Executive Executive Issues Issues

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Volume 4 - October 2008

Some Voters will be de-franchised

The October 30 elections will be held on the basis of the 2006 Voter Register because there has been no new registration of voters and time does not now permit any such exercise. The law provides for continuous voter registration but this has never been implemented. There are 3.9 million registered voters on the 2006 roll out of a population of 11 million plus. Turn out is expected to be slightly low due to a number of factors. Among the key ones are ; loss of National Registration

Central Copperbelt Eastern Luapula Lusaka Northern North-western Southern Western

381,939 625,505 498,649 312,593 592,511 464, 910 244,599 503,221 316,102

Cards (NRC), which is a prerequisite for voting, loss of voters’ cards, deaths or sickness of voters and the migration of voters to different areas. In Zambia, a voter can only cast a ballot where they were registered. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) has announced that voters’ who lost their cards will be given fresh ones. However, it is not clear whether the cash-strapped department of National Registration will also issue NRCs to those who lost them. Below are the Statistics on the Voter Register per Province

Number of eligible voters Female Male

3,940,053 52.02% 47.98%

Number of wards Number of Polling District Number of Streams

1,422 6.456 9,314

Number of Provinces Number of Districts Number of Constituencies

9 72 150

Presidential Voting Pattern Analysis There are 3.9 million voters on the current roll. But Northern Province – with a total 464, 910 voters is more likely to determine the winner between acting President Rupiah Bwezani Banda and opposition leader Michael Chilufya Sata. If

312,593

464, 910

the province is split, which is more likely, and then the Banda Bandwagon will roll into State House with few hitches. Banda has Eastern Province which has 498,649 voters while Sata is likely to take Copperbelt and Lusaka Provinces which have 625,505 and 592,511 voters, respectively. But Banda may not be far behind anyone in Lusaka, Copperbelt and Southern Provinces (503,221), which

498,649

625,505

244,599

may help tilt the equation when the overall count is done. Western (316,102) and Northwestern (244,599) provinces may go Banda way but Luapula province

381, 939

(312,593) could go Sata. However, Sata’s inadequacy lies in the fact that his popularity does not transcend Lusaka, Copperbelt and parts of Northern and Luapula Provinces. The Youngman Hakainde Hichilema will surely capture

592,511 316,102

503,221

his traditional Southern and some parts of Central (381, 93) provinces. Central

Total number of voters per provnce

province could go to either Banda or Hichilema but the contest will be close

GENERAL ELECTIONS between the two. Sata may not feature in this equation, thereby weakening his overall result.

Presidential - National Result by Candidate

PRESIDENTIAL National : Zambia

RESULTS 2006 Political Party

Candidate Levy Mwanawasa Michael MC Sata Hakainde Hichilema Godfrey K Miyanda Winright K Ngondo National Totals : Registered Voters Votes Cast Voter Turnout Valid Votes Rejected Votes Rejected Votes % Constituencies to Date Report Printed at :

2006

02-October-2006

MMD PF UDA HP APC 3,941,229 2,789,114 70.77% 2,740,178 48,936 1.75% 150

Votes Received 1,177,846 804,748 693,772 42,891 20,921 2,740,178

Votes % 42.98% 29.37% 25.32% 1.57% 0.76%

Source: Electoral Commission of Zambia

To pg 4 7:19:30 pm

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Volume 4 - October 2008

Who’s who The Old Man and the Experience

SATA - Man of Action

Rupiah Bwezani Banda or ‘RB’ is an old man with the experience. Had it not been for late President Levy Patrick Mwanawasa, Banda would have remained in political retirement at his Chipata Farm. Banda is the undisputed front-runner for the Presidency due to a number of factors including the incumbency and nationwide character of his Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) party. At 71 years, Banda’s political experience has been vast although some people believe he belongs to the old school. Banda is perhaps the most educated of the three Presidential candidates. Holder of a Degree in Economics and Industry, Banda also holds a post-graduate diploma in Development Studies as well as a Diploma in International Relations.

Michael Chilufya Sata is a Man of Action as his slogans portray him correctly. He owes to his political success to himself and, to his credit, has managed brand and re-brand himself several times. He is the man to watch in this race even though his poor health has reduced his support base. He may not be a graduate, but he commands a good following in urban areas because of his populist rhetoric and his ’90 day’ theory of development. He is the least educated among the Presidential candidates. Formerly a policeman, Sata changes policies rapidly and yet his support remains unchanged. He will be entering the ring for the third time. Born: 1937 Education Background:

Born: February 19, 1937 Education Background: •

University: Addis Ababa University (briefly)

•

BA (Economic History): Lund University Sweden

•

Post Graduate Diploma in Development Studies (United King



dom)

•

Diploma in Diplomacy and International Relations

Positions Held:

Unknown

Positions Held: • District Governor Lusaka • Member of Parliament for Kabwata Constituency • Minister of state Local Government and Housing • Minister of Local Government and Housing • Minister of Health • Minister of Labour and Social Services • Minister without Portfolio • National Secretary – MMD • President – Patriotic Front • Business Consultant Experience in Government: Vast

•

First Ambassador to Egypt: 1964

•

Ambassador to the USA: 1967-1970

PERCEPTIONS

•

General Manager, Namboard: 1970

•

General Manager - Rural Development Corporation to 1974

Positives

Negatives

•

Permanent Representative of Zambia to the UN: 1974

•

Foreign Minister of Zambia: 1975

•

Member of Parliament Munali: 1978

• Man of Action (Worker) • Forgiving personality • Understands government opera tions • Pro-poor leadership

•

Re-elected to Parliament: 1988-1991

• Brutal and dictatorial tendencies • Anti Foreign Investors • Sick for the Job • Too Old for the Job • Hyper-active (Needs Control) • Lacks diplomacy

•

Minister of State - Mines

•

Senior Governor-Lusaka

•

Director – National Airports Corporation Limited

•

Chairman - Chipoza Holdings

•

Chairman - Robert Hudson Ltd

•

Vice President – Football Association of Zambia (FAZ)

•

Chairman - Allenwest Zambia Ltd

Election Budget – Queries Raised Preparations for the Presidential Elections underway

Experience in Government – Vast PERCEPTIONS: Positives

Negatives

• Experienced and cool headed • Likeable personality • Able to reconcile the nation • Able to continue the MMD policies • Represents stability and continuity • Well connected in the SADC region

• UNIP member and Old School Politician • Surrounded by wolves • Too Old for the Job • Too nice for a leader • Return of UNIP

The budget of ZMK 231 billion for the forthcoming Presidential Elections has raised dust with key stakeholders disputing the figure because it is higher than the one spent in the 2006 General Elections. Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) Director Dan Kalale, has justified it saying it is higher as a result of high fuel prices and increased wages for public workers who will be hired to conduct the polls. Kalale said ECZ would engage a total of 70,000 people for the election because the process will be labour-intensive. But Transparency International Zambia (TIZ) President Rueben Lifuka said the budget is questionable because it exceeds the 2006 one, which catered for Presidential, Parliamentary and Local government elections. He said ECZ needs to provide convincing answers on the higher budget for one election. Good question, if you ask. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), through its Election Fund, will provide about US$ 11.5 million towards the Election. UNDP Resident Coordinator Macleod Nyirongo said his agency will open an account where donors will deposit their contributions ahead of the elections. Preparations for the elections are intensifying with some hiccups. Most materials have not arrived even though the commission expects everything to be in place before t October 30. Kalale said the ECZ had to cut corners and relax tender procedures in order to organize the elections within the stipulated 90-day period following the death of President Levy Patrick Mwanawasa who died in Paris on August 19, 2008.

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Volume 4 - October 2008

Who’s who The Youngman and the Boards The Youngman, Hakainde Hichilema or ‘HH’ should have been the sure front-runner in the forthcoming Presidential Elections had he played his political cards well. He is the only one young man in the race and belongs to the new generation but his failure to unite his party and lack of nationwide support will affect his chances. Intellectually, he seems to be the man of the moment even though he has the demeanor of arrogance at times. The lack of charisma is not doing him any good. Hichilema has an impressive educational background – Holder of BA in Economics and Business and an MBA in Finance and Business Strategy. Born: 1962 Education Background:

BA Economics and Business (Zambia) MBA Finance and Business Strategy (United Kingdom)

Position Held: Partner – Grant Thornton (Audit Firm) Chairman – Barclays Bank Zambia Plc Chairman – Sun International (Z) Limited Chairman – Media Trust Fund Chairman – Export Development Programme Director – Zambia Investment Board Director – Seedco Zambia Limited Director – African Life Financial Services Limited Director –Zambezi Nickel (Bermuda) Limited Director – West Lake Investment Limited (Mauritius) Experience in Government: Nil KEY PERCEPTIONS Positives

Negatives

• Young and Healthy • Educated (Economist) • Entrepreneur with a number of private sector investments

• Arrogant • Regional leader • No experience in statecraft • Lacks Charisma

Presidential Campaigns go Cyber Three special websites of presidential candidates go live The stakes in the forthcoming Presidential Elections have risen. All the three candidates have launched their websites, featuring their agenda and vision for the country. The www.michealsata.co.zm was the first one to go up with pictures of the 2006 General Elections showing Patriotic Front candidate Michael Chilfuya Sata addressing huge crowds. Within weeks, new information, including latest pictures from recent rallies was uploaded. “Man of Action,” the site proclaims, with another link asking people to donate funds towards the campaign. “The presidential election in the next few weeks is going to be faster and tougher than anything we have faced so far, and our opponents will do everything they can to tear us down,” Sata declared. The next website to go up was the www.hakainde.com which caused a controversy when it carried a story alleging that PF leader Sata had endorsed the youngman Hakainde Hichilema as the preferred candidate for the 2008 Presidential Elections. Sata and Hichilema had hinted on a possible electoral pact following their successful joint rally to protest against salary increments for ministers and other constitutional office holders. Immediately the story was posted on the Hakainde website, Sata’s campaign team uploaded a disclaimer, attacking Hichilema as a liar. “I cannot be a vice to someone who is under five and inexperienced...He has never met me to discuss a government of national unity...it’s a lie”, the statement issued by Sata said. “If in his eyes I am too old, why then should he consider me for vice? It’s all in his dreams and wishful thinking. We are filling nominations next week and are very confident PF will form the next government”. It is difficult to discern who was telling the truth. The third website to go live was the www.banda4zambia.com, which equally features his profile and a huge photo gallery depicting the acting President Rupiah Bwezani Banda in different situations with world leaders and sports personalities of his time. “Building on the Promise – Continuity, Good Governance, Prosperity for All,” read the slogan posted on the website.

Political Blogs The language could be said to be uncouth and at times totally defamatory – but that is the nature of blogs. Zambians are drifting to blogs as a source of information following the dismal performance of newspapers, which tend to censor letters to the editor that oppose their preferred candidates. No doubt, the best run and most popular blog is the www.lusakatimes.com , which has huge traffic. Most young Zambians are feeding mainly that blog with a number of comments especially on the upcoming Presidential Elections. Another one that has gone up is the www.zambia.co.zm/president , which is slowly becoming popular.

INFLATION – Going up and up September inflation hits 14.2 percent The officials in the Central Bank or Bank of Zambia should now begin to face the reality. The much touted single-digit inflation for the year-end seems to be a pipedream. The Central Statistics Office (CSO), through its monthly survey on consumer prices, announced that the annual inflation rate has gone up again for the month of September. It is 14.2 percent, a rather high figure for a country that projected inflation to be in single-digit. This rate is 1.0 percent point higher than the August one which stood at 13.2 percent. “The September 2008 inflation rate at 14.2 percent means that prices as measured by the all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by an average of 14.2 percent between September 2007 and September 2008,” said William Mayaka, acting Director of Census and Statistics at CSO. He attributed to the rise in the inflation rate to the increase in the cost of transport, fuel, airfares, new motor vehicles, rent, household energy, furniture and household goods. Of the total 14.2 percent annual inflation in September 2008, food products accounted for 7.8 percent points while non-food products in the CPI accounted for a total of 6.4 percent points.

Weather Forecast: Normal Rain begins The 2008/09 rainy season to have normal rainfall is most parts The rains are back at least soon. In October, most parts of Zambia are expected to experience normal rainfall except in the extreme north and eastern parts of the country which will alternate between normal and below normal rainfall. The Meteorological Department of Zambia said the 2008/9 rainy season, which begins in October, is likely to be normal in most parts of the country. Director of Meteorology Maurice Muchinda said the state of the area surface temperatures indicate neutral conditions although there was a chance of flash floods in some areas. He said between October and December 2008, most parts of Zambia will have normal rainfall but after January to March 2009, the country may have normal to above normal rainfall, Muchinda said. To pg 6

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Volume 4 - October 2008

Oil Procurement – talks fail again

PTA/Finance bank picked to finance crude oil importation after talks with ZANACO collapse while ABSA bank sues government for breach of contract There must be something terribly wrong at the Ministry of Energy. Ever since a US$ 1.2 billion tender was awarded to Independent Petroleum Group (IPG) of Kuwait for the long-term supply of crude oil, government has failed to organize a financier for the deal. A competitive tender went up and Standard Bank of South Africa was picked as the best bidder among the rest. But within a short period of time, the negotiations failed after the Zambian government, we hear, failed to provide guarantees for the transaction. Another tender was placed and the partially state-owned Zambia National Commercial Bank (ZANACO) emerged winner after a three-horse race. The bank scooped the tender after beating Citibank and a joint bid by Finance Bank Zambia and the PTA bank. Negotiations with ZANACO took long and Energy Minister Kenneth Konga issued a number of deadlines which the parties failed honour until September 11 when government formally terminated negotiations. It appears that it is the Zambian government that was unable to satisfy would be financers once again. ZANACO Managing Director Mark Wiessing said the Zambian negotiators wanted his bank to disburse the funds without providing any security, an unwise thing for any serious bank to undertake at this time. Commercial terms between the two parties had been agreed and the agreement was sent to the Attorney-General Mumba Malila to provide legal opinion. However, the lack of government guarantees is understood to be what messed up the conclusion of the transaction. Energy Ministry Permanent Secretary Peter Mumba said the Zambia National Tender Board (ZNTB) had allowed his team to open negotiations with another financier for the purposes of fast-tracking the procurement of 1.5 million tonnes of crude oil. ZNTB spokeswoman Hazel Zulu confirmed that they had allowed govern-

Yellow Card to Total – BP Zambia BP and Total drag Competition Commission to court but authorities maintain demand

for an end to the two firm’s monopoly in the petroleum

sector

ment to proceed with negotiations on a joint bid between PTA bank and Finance Bank Zambia Limited, which lost the initial tender. We hear cabinet has asked Konga to make sure that the delay in the deal does not affect the fuel supply in the country. Meanwhile, the Amalgamated Bank of South Africa (ABSA) has decided to open old wounds by taking the Zambian government to court over alleged unpaid dues for the importation of crude oil in 2001. The South African bank is demanding to be paid US$ 74.3 million following the termination of a crude oil importation deal involving Trans-Saharan Trading or TST which won the tender to supply Zambia before the deal was cancelled. Slashing Fuel Prices Acting President Rupiah Bwezani Banda gave clear instructions in his first National Address to Finance Minister Ngandu Peter Magande to find ways of reducing the fuel prices, which are said to be the highest in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) region. At current prices, Petrol went up from ZMK 8,355 to ZMK 9,458 per litre, Diesel from ZMK 7,232 to ZMK 8,190 per litre and Kerosene from ZMK 5,104 to ZMK 5, 745 per litre. Magande was to form a taskforce jointly with the Ministry of Energy to find ways of, firstly, reducing the taxes levied on fuel in order to bring down the price. The Energy Regulation Board (ERB) reduced the prices on September 24. ERB chairman Sikota Wina said petrol and diesel pump prices were reduced by ZMK 1, 956 and ZMK 1, 091 respectively while that of Kerosene went down by ZMK 852. The opposition claimed the move was a political ploy to win votes ahead of the Presidential Elections. Magande has hinted that the effects of the new prices to be announced will be felt only in November, a month after the elections, because the existing fuel stock was acquired on the old prices.

through its Fund could help balance the equation. Deliberate attempts should be made to encourage Zambian entrepreneurs to invest in the importation of petroleum products as well as in storage and logistical capacities. “Until critical logistical capacity is built and developed to sustainable levels through attractive entry conditions, it is likely that the pe-

The market dominance of two key foreign oil marketing companies, Total and BP, is raising alarm in regulatory circles. Regulators have observed a growing trend towards retrogressive competition and unfair trading practices, which marginalizes small locally-owned companies. Government has joined the chorus and asked the Zambia Competition Commission (ZCC) to intervene. Experts say the current fragmented and uncoordinated regulation of the petroleum sector has affected outcomes. “We would propose a review of the energy policy in so far as it relates to the procurement, storage and transportation of petroleum products to ensure that no less than two players monopolise any part of the petroleum chain” said Thula Kaira, ZCC Executive Director. Currently, it appears that there are

troleum industry in Zambia will continue to be vulnerable to the activities of dominant firms in the sector,” ZCC said. Entry into the market requires huge capital investment, which most small Zambian firms are unable to organize. Suggestions have been made to encourage mining companies to enter into supply contracts with small Zambian firms in order to lessen the dominance of BP and Total. But most large mining firms are unable to take such big risks because some of the oil marketing firms may not deliver on time. Currently, BP Zambia and Total are in court following decisions that ZCC made against them in their attempt to “monopolise and duopolies” the Jet-Fuel market.

Currency

Buying

Selling

trade when the preferred supplier fails to meet contractual obligations.

US Dollar

3,550.18

3,570.18

“We believe that long term strategic planning in the petroleum sector in-

GB Pound

6,585.59

6,624.48

Rand

435.82

438.81

Euro

5,219.84

5,249.96

a lot of ad-hoc arrangements, which make regulation problematic. For example, some mining companies have tied themselves to some “strange” and long-term supply arrangements that have affected their freedom of

volving a large spectrum of entrepreneurs is essential,” Kaira said. Ideas of how to change the status quo abound. Many believe that the Citizens Economic Empowerment Commission (CEEC)

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Volume 4 - October 2008

Standard Chartered Bank – Flirting with SMEs The bank plans to sponsor 50 entrepreneurs to the Hong Kong Expo SMEs or Small and Medium-scale Enterprises have become the target of almost every commercial bank in Zambia. Every bank is developing innovative products targeted at the SMEs. Standard Chartered Bank appears far ahead of competitors. The bank has dedicated an entire month - September 15 to October 15 – during which it will unveil various new products and services for the customers. “The SME sector is a very important and strategic segment to Standard Chartered Bank Zambia and is an important contributor to our growth momentum in 2008,” said Mizinga Shansonga Melu, the bank’s CEO and Managing Director for Zambia. She said Standard Chartered Bank under the ‘SME Trade Corridor’ initiative tries to assist the SME customers to grow their business with Asia or China in particular through their participation in the annual Hong Kong World Trade Expo. “This year we are planning to take about 50 SMEs to the Expo,” said Melu. Zambian SMEs should be on the look out for this trip. Last year, according to Melu, 14 Zambian SMEs were assisted to attend the Expo where they met and discussed trade networks with their Asian counterparts. The other key advantage of taking part in the ‘SME Trade Corridor’ Initiative is that it provides the entrepreneurs with the opportunities to open accounts in multiple countries away from their home markets but able to manage all their accounts through a single-internet banking facility called Straight-to-Bank. This facility allows customers to access international markets and gives them control over their finances, Melu said. During the month, the bank plans to launch dynamic products such as the SME Express Credit and SME Business Credit Accounts. “The roll out of these new products will enable us to significantly enhance our service to our SME customers in Zambia and to further assist their growing businesses,” said Richard Wright, Head of SME Africa for the bank. Standard Chartered Bank believes that SMEs in Africa currently account for between 30% and 60% of GDP and predicts that the SMEs will be a key driver of sustainable economic growth on the continent in the next 10 years. And on a good note, Standard Chartered Bank recorded a 50% profit increase during the first half of the year. This increment is attributed to the exceptional performance of consumer and wholesale banking. The bank recorded ZMK 40 billion profit mainly through the various businesses developments in the mining, agriculture, manufacturing and SMEs sectors. Melu said the bank has also grown its balance sheet y 30 percent on a year-on-year basis to ZMK 955 billion in 2008, a good record if you ask.

Mizinga – A Rising Gem Within a short time, she appears to have settled in the big job. Mizinga Shansonga Melu is the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Limited, who assumed the position in January this year. A Zambian, Mizinga has over 10 years experience in banking working within the Standard Chartered Bank Group. She has held various positions in Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, South Africa and now Zambia. Before she was promoted to take up the big job in Zambia, Mizinga served as Global Head of Development for the bank. She also previously held the positions of Treasurer, Head of Sales and Regional Head of Financial Institutions within the international bank. Holder of an MBA from Henley Management College in the United Kingdom, Mizinga is a truly rising “precious gem” within the banking world. She is the second Zambian woman to head a big international bank after Margaret Mwanakatwe, who was CEO of

ZANACO Expands Ahead of Listing The bank injects US$ 25 million in the expansion project while new innovative products and services hit the Zambian market ‘The people’s bank”, Zambia National Commercial Bank or ZANACO, has become one of the good examples of a well-thought out privatization. Its sale was controversial and anti-privatization campaigners opposed the deal for fear of job losses and the closure of unprofitable rural branches. But within a year after partial privatization, good news seems to be the only thing coming out of ZANACO – Thanks to Netherlands Rabo Bank, which has kept its word. “The new management has not sacked anyone as earlier anticipated. It has been a good privatization,” admits Cephas Mukuka, President of the Zambia Union of Financial and Allied Workers (ZUFIAW). The bank intends to issue an Initial Public Offer (IPO) of 25.8 percent shares on the Lusaka Stock Exchange while the Zambia National Farmers Union (ZNFU) has been offered a separate set of shares in the bank. Members of staff in ZANACO will be given an opportunity to buy a stake under the Employee Share Ownership Program. A year after Rabo Bank of Netherlands bought 49 percent stake in the once state-owned commercial bank, the balance sheet has grown tremendously . And so have the products! Managing Director Mark Wiessing had reasons to wear a smile when he delivered a speech at the signing ceremony of a US$ 25 million senior debt facility, which has been entered into to expand the books of the bank. “This is the first ever long term financial debt ZANACO has ever raised in the international markets…,” Wiessing said. It is FMO of Netherlands and Proparco who have decided to provide a debt facility to ZANACO to strength the bank’s performance. “It will also be used for on lending to our customers, particularly those in the agriculture sector,” the CEO said. The Netherlands Embassy in Zambia has also committed Euro 2 million in grants to facilitate improvement projects within the bank. New Products for ZANACO Customers The new team has also managed to transform the bank into a truly commercial bank with international scope. All the ZANACO Automated Teller Machines (ATM) cards have been converted to VISA-Election Cards, which will enable customers access their accounts on all the Visa-enabled ATMs worldwide. The ATM machines have also been increased from 35 to 58 and the target is to grow them to about 100 by the end of 2008, said Wiessing. While some branches have been going through refurbishment, the bank launched the GPRS enabled Point of Sale terminals in the branches. Farmers should be trooping to ZANACO following the launch of an agriculture product called Munda Scheme, a seasonal finance facility for peasant and small-scale farmers. In the first half of the year, the bank grew by over 40 percent in revenue compared to last year, Wiessing said. “This is an encouraging statistic…,” he boasted. The most exciting service to which ZANACO has beaten all other competitors is the Xapit, a kind of cell phone banking that allows customers to buy airtime, pay bills such as DSTV and make money transfers to third parties using the ATM. ZANACO is the first bank to implement such a service, which will operate 24 hours a day. “It will be made available to the existing customers, but ultimately also to the (two) 2 million people who have a cell phone but not a bank account,” said Wiessing. This facility, if well implemented, will allow most Zambians who have no access to banking facilities to access financial services using their cell phones.

7

Barclays Bank Zambia. Executive Executive IssuesIssues

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Volume 4 - October 2008

MAIZE MARKETING – In a Catch 22 FRA extends marketing season after recording drastic drop in maize purchases ahead of the onset of the rainy season Good prices come to those who wait – is perhaps the wrong message which the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) has sent to farmers. FRA Chairman Costain Chilala announced on September 16 an increment in the floor price of Maize at the last minute. The 50 kilogramme bag of maize has gone up by ZMK 10,000 from the initial ZMK45, 000 to ZMK 55,000. In future, FRA should not blame the farmers if they decide to hoard their produce in anticipation of a last minute increase in price. “The FRA would like to once again appeal to all its esteemed farmers who may be keeping maize to quickly bring such maize to the buying depots so that it can be bought, paid for and secured, before the onset of the rains,” Chilala said. The FRA has also extended the crop marketing season from September to the end of October following complaints from farmers who had not offloaded their maize on the market. The 2008 marketing season started on a very slow note due to the high moisture content of maize in some areas as a result of the prolonged rainfall. As at September, the Agency had only procured 45,000 metric tonnes of maize, with Northern Province recording the highest number of purchase at 36, 725 metric tonnes as at September, FRA Director General Dr. Anthony Mwanawumo said. “The Agency realizes that there is a drastic drop in purchases in comparison to the last two years, but that should not cause any alarm…,” Mwanawumo said, adding that the private sector had been active in buying off some of the maize. However, the FRA boss said the role of the private sector in agricultural marketing should be regulated to ensure that they serve the interests of farmers. “Specifically, we urge government to regulate the use of scales so that farmers especially small-scale farmers get full value for their maize,” he said. The other reason for the drastic drop in maize purchases is the low crop production in most parts of the country as a result of the floods that hit Zambia in he 2007/08 farming season.

The decision by FRA to increase the floor price of maize had two major effects. On the positive side, it allowed farmers who had been hoarding their produce in anticipation of a higher price to offload the maize ahead of the close of the marketing season on October 31. This will enable farmers fetch more money on their maize, which they could not have realized if they had sold it in July when the marketing season opened. “While the speculation by some farmers is good for their pockets, we also have an obligation to ensure that maize is purchased and secured in time before the onset of the rains,” FRA said. Some roads will be impassable when the rainy season begins this month and therefore the FRA and the private sector may not be able to purchase the remaining bags in most areas, Mwanawumo said. The FRA pays farmers within seven days and at the moment, it claims to have no outstanding debts to farmers unlike in the past. Secondly, the decision by FRA to increase the maize floor prices has had a chilling effect on the price of mealie-meal in Zambia. Millers have also increased the price of mealie-meal, the country’s stable food, in most parts of the country with a 25 kilogram going at over ZMK 55,000. We understand the FRA had held a meeting with the Millers Association of Zambia (MAZ) over the increments and the millers had promised that the prices of mealie-meal would remain stagnant despite the increase in maize floor price by the FRA. “In view of the looming global food crisis, the FRA would like to highlight the fact that this matter is not for the Agency alone but for the industry as a whole,” Mwanawumo said. The government had set up a taskforce under the ministry of agriculture and cooperatives which is trying to come up with short, medium and long-term measures to mitigate the situation. FRA has been drafted into the taskforce as member. The country still has enough stock in the Strategic Food Reserves which is been used for food relief programmes for vulnerable communities, FRA said.

Data on Maize by province for the 2007/08 Agricultural season Area Area Harvested planted (Ha) (Ha)

Expected production (MT)

Yield (MT/Ha)

Expected Sales (MT)

Basal Fert Applied (MT)

Top Fert Applied (MT)

Maize Central

166,513

97,846

313,694

5

176,444

16,068

16,457

55,728

44,658

104,748

5

56,018

3,693

3,986

Eastern

199,715

156,635

267,596

4

56,686

7,833

8,603

Luapula

20593

19205

40008

4.6

18386

1477

1467

Lusaka

30,568

14,999

40,692

5.04

23,444

3,180

3,011

Northern

80081

70540

171,232

5.19

89,970

6621

6597

Copperbelt

Northwestern

41123

34994

60561

4.84

29764

1344

1480

Southern

212,600

58,362

106,891

2.17

18,142

7,899

7258

Western

109815 916,736

42632 539,873

36,007 1,141,429

2.99 1.95

4,310 473,163

531 48,646

527 49,386

Total

Source: Central Statistics Office

New Technology Boost Tobacco Farmers Data on Sorghum by province for the 2007/08 Agricultural season

cal officer of ProBEC. In the past, about four people were needed Top to loadFert wood in Area Expected Basal Fert Multi-purpose barns to reduce deforestation and gas emissions the barn, but with ProBEC one is enough. Area Harvested production Yield Expected Applied Applied This will inevitably allow tobacco farmers to have a competitive edge on the marThere is cause for celebration in Southernplanted Province(Ha) – at least among (Ha) tobacco (MT) (MT/Ha) Sales (MT) (MT) (MT) farmers. A new technology has entered the Province and it will drastically reduce ket and fetch higher prices at auctions. Sorghum 2677 2395 or 972 1.16 70 3 3 the human resourceCentral requirement in the curing of tobacco. The name is ProBEC eleven (11) farmers in Choma have gone through training and construction Programme for Basic Energy and Conversation, a new678 technology that uses Copperbelt 582 less So far, 310 1.87 37 2 0 wood in Eastern curing the tobacco and produces better quality grades. “Based of the new barns has begun. Already, three small-scale farmers and one com1,765 1,509 984 0.42 6 0 0 on research and initial tests by university students, the barns use 60% mercial farmer in Zambia are using the rocket barn, with a unique design, which Luapula burns wood very efficiently and requires less labour. “Ordinary barns require regu1954 1839 1885 1.17 70 0 0 less wood than the traditional model,” said Brighton Mubanga, techni-

Lusaka

428

Northern

519

Northwestern

2,893

139

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65

0.33

0

0

505 370 Executive Issues Executive Issues 2,561 1,669

1.06

100

0

0

0.54

184

0

0

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Volume 4 - October 2008 lar maintenance due to their high heat, while these do not,” Mubanga said. The rocket barn technology, which has multi-purpose applications, is widely used in neighbouring Malawi because it can also be used to dry maize, vegetables and timber. “Furthermore, such barns can also help vegetable farmers to plant in two crop cycles in the wet season without putting vegetables at the risk of rotting” ProBEC, a project within the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), said. GTZ or German Technical Co-operation is the implementing agent in Zambia of the project that is aimed at preserving the environment. “Such low-wood rocket barns are given preference on the international market because of the environmental benefits,” the statement said, adding that the new technology will help minimize deforestation and the emission of greenhouse gases and toxic smoke that contribute to climate change. Alliance One, the primary buyer of tobacco in Zambia, has worked a scheme with the farmers where the company will provide support towards the procurement of material inputs for the construction of the new barns. This project will, no doubt, raise the profile of Alliance One among the environmental groups for taking such an initiative. “These barns are also safer and have less risk of catching fire,” the ProBEC said.

Intermarket under new bosses Regulator allows sale of majority shares in Intermarket Bank

Agriculture – It is Zambeef again! Zambeef has finally bought majority stake in Nanga Farms Plc The ever-growing Zambeef Products Plc has added another one to its empire – Nanga Farms Plc, a cane sugar growing enterprise which was owned by the Commonwealth Development Corporation (CDC). Zambeef has taken up 85.73 percent in Nanga Farms following a September approval by the Zambia Competition Commission (ZCC). The Farm is expected to produce about 10 percent of the total (raw) cane sugar production. “The board noted that Zambeef was currently not involved in the growing and/or processing of sugar cane, which was the main line of business for Nanga Farms Plc,” said Thula Kaira ZCC Executive Director. He said the acquisition of Nanga Farms by Zambeef will not remove any competitor from the market and therefore decided to approve the takeover without conditions. Zambeef has indicated that it will inject capital and investments into the undeveloped areas of the Nanga Farms, which is likely going to increase sugar production in the country and generate employment. Recently, through its bullish expansionist agenda, Zambeef acquired Amanita, Lendor Agriculture Holdings and Master Pork Limited.

Railway Project – It’s Three in One Feasibility studies for three railway lines to begin despite court case

It is a done deal! Intermarket Banking Corporation is now under new owners – Sabre Capital Worldwide Limited of Mauritius. The Zambia Competition Commission (ZCC) has given approval for the 57 percent share acquisition of the bank, which had suffered balance sheet woes for a while. ZCC said the deal was approved without any conditions because Sabre Capital Worldwide had no presence in Zambia and, in any case, the transaction will help raise the investment profile of the country. The acquisition, according to ZCC board, will increase investor and depositor confidence in the Zambian financial sector. “It is likely that the percentage of unbanked Zambians may reduce in the long run,” ZCC said in a statement. Sabre Capital Worldwide had acquired a controlling stake in Intermarket with a projected capital injection of US$10 million. As at June 2008, Sabre Capital had pumped in US$3 million to beef up the share capital, which was said to be dwindling. The balance of US$7 million will be released within a year. The owners of Intermarket, ZB Financial Holdings Limited (ZBFH) of Zimbabwe, have scaled-down their stake in the bank. With Sabre Capital taking a leading management role in the bank, it is expected that Intermarket will expand its products and client reach. Sabre Capital was founded in 2002 by Rana Talwar, a former Chief Executive Officer of Standard Chartered Bank. Sabre focus is to build consumer and SME financial services in emerging markets like Zambia through “organic growth and acquisition.” The firm has investments and management agreements with banks in India, Bahrain, Nigeria, so they say in their profile. The firm, they disclosed, is about to invest between US$250 – 300 million in a private equity fund under the Sabre African Financial Services Fund (SAFF I), which is in formation.

The State Proceedings Act prohibits the Courts from issuing injunctions to refrain government from making decisions. And so, on September 5, the Zambian government went ahead to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for the construction of three key railway systems despite the being before the courts. The North Western Railway (NWR), owned by former Vice President Enock Percy Kavindele, is in court seeking judicial review of the manner that the Minister of Communications and Transport Dora Siliya withdrew their construction permit. “I don’t understand why they have gone ahead when the matter is still unresolved in court,” said Kavindele. The MOU has been signed for the development of new railway lines in Northwestern and Central Provinces. A consortium lead by China Railway Engineering Group (CREG) and AYR Infrastructure of Australia has been granted the initial deal to conduct feasibility studies and, if found economically viable, proceed to construct three railway lines. The MOU was signed by Siliya on behalf of Zambia and Ron Forless, a representative of the AYR group. “Government may have gone to sleep about this important issue but it is time to wake up because the railway system is important,” Siliya said. Initially, the two parties signed a communiqué in June 2008, which facilitated negotiations culminating in the signing of the MOU. “The consortium undertakes to comply with the government of Zambia’s legal and regulatory framework, including the Citizens Economic Empowerment Act, and any other guidelines which may be promulgated from time to time,” the agreement read in part. The consortium comprised of CREC/AYR and a Zambian firm called Trans-Zambezi Railway Limited, co-owned by ex-Football Association of Zambia President Teddy Mulonga and Zambia’s former Ambassador to Brussels Kapempe Nsingo. Three separate but interlinked railway lines have been proposed for development, including one that will link Zambia to neighbouring Angola. It will be called Jimbe-Mwinilunga-Lumwana. The second one will be Chingola-SolweziLumwana. The third is Lumwana-Kasempa-Mumbwa-Kapiri Mposhi. Huge sums of money in the form of compensation to person who will be displaced and in royalties to the chiefdoms through which the railway lines will pass. The railway lines are expected to help address the transport requirements arising from key mining developments in both Northwestern and Central Provinces. 9

Executive Executive Issues Issues

News

Volume 4 - October 2008

Refugees – Go and See

Conspiracy to Kill MOSI?

New initiative launched to entice Congolese to return home.

Shortages of MOSI lager hit the market as Zambian Breweries blame lack of bottles for the scarcity

Go-and-See-Visit - is the latest campaign by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Zambia to entice about 30,000 Congolese refugees to return home. The campaign, launched in October, will facilitate refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to travel to their country and see for themselves that fighting is a thing of the past. “We will assist those that want to go back, through the available assistance package,” said James Lynch, UNHCR resident representative in Zambia. Other initiatives that have been launched include radio programmes, door-to-door information dissemination and come-and-tell visits to the DRC, which are aimed at kindling interest in the repatriation exercise. “This has resulted in an increase in the number of refugees now expressing interest to go back home,” Lynch said. The campaign is targeted at moving the returnees ahead of the rainy season, which usually makes the roads impassable in the rural areas.

Something is missing in Zambian bars nowadays and it is none other than that Zambian mainstay –the precious MOSI Lager! Suddenly – MOSI - Zambia’s most famous lager is no longer found in most bars, forcing patrons to resort to rival the CASTLE lager. Conspiracy theories abound with the majority of Zambians believing that the South African Breweries (SAB) Miller Group, which bought Zambian Breweries, wants to phase out the brand. But what is the reason for the sudden shortages of MOSI? “We have been experiencing a shortage of Returnable Glass Bottles (RGB) due to the inability of our Zimbabwean supplier to meet our orders,” said Pearson Gowero, Zambian Breweries Plc Managing Director. “We have since ordered bottles from SA which are now being delivered. The supply position should normalize towards the end of October”. But why is there no shortage of CASTLE?

Only 5, 961 Congolese returned under the voluntary repatriation exercise which resumed in May 2008. “You have to go back home to help in the reconstruction of your home through skills you have acquired while in Zambia,” said Mumpa Flo, a Congolese embassy official who toured the refugee camps in northern Zambia. Last year, only 7, 323 refugees went back to DRC, bringing the total number of returnees to 13, 284 since the exercise kicked off. Most of the refugees are living at Kala and Mwange camps in northern Zambia near the border with DRC. The World Food Programme (WFP) is providing food aid to the refugees while the Organisation for Migration (IOM) has provided transportation for the group. Some refugees cited insecurity in DRC, lack of education for the children and agricultural harvests in Zambia as the main reasons for signing up for repatriation. Under the UNHCR rules, refugees should only be repatriated to areas which are accessible by road, landmines must be removed and basic infrastructure such as schools, health centres and potable water supply in place. Zambia has 87, 223 refugees scattered around the camps in the country with Congolese constituting the biggest population at 51, 073 as at August 2008. Angolans trail with 27,376 after 74, 000 returned home between 2003 and 2007 under the voluntary repatriation. Rwanda, Burundi and Somalia have few refugees in Zambia.

Chinese Investors – Come In Please

Many now believe that SAB Miller wants to concentrate on marketing “their best brand,” CASTLE, at the expense of local lagers. For instance, the once prestigious MOSI Sevens, an annual Rugby tournament has been renamed CASTLE Sevens. “As you know Mosi is a local brand and Castle is our Pan African brand which makes it more appropriate for sponsoring this tournament,” Gowero said rather unconvincingly. The MOSI Sevens tournament has been relegated to the Copperbelt in the meantime. Zambian Breweries also parried fears of Mosi disappearing, saying it will not phase it out but will instead introduce new packaging. “There are no plans to phase out Mosi. In fact we are in the process of rolling out new packaging for the brand. This will include a new 375ml RGB, 340ml NRB and a 330ml Can,” Gowero said. SAB bought Zambia Breweries in 1994 for US$14 million during the privatization programme. The company was in 1997 voted, the best privatized company with a clear social responsibility policy that included the sponsorship of the MOSI Cup Football tournament. However some local brands like the popular Rhino Lager and Rhino “Special Dark” have been phased out leading to real fears that the same fate may befall Mosi.

Welcome back Mr. PEPSI

Coca-Cola faces competition once again

More Chinese companies express interest in Zambia Those who were there in the early 1970’s will remember the competition IS it another China town? This is the question many Zambians are asking following the announcement that a Chinese company plans to invest US$ 2 billion in Northwestern Province. The investment, we are told, will involve the setting up of an ultra modern mining town or city complete with a hydropower station and water supply system. ZHONGHUI Mining Industry Limited plans

which PEPSI gave to Coca-Cola. It was a tight race until PEPSI exited from the Zambian market. Commerce Minister Felix Mutati recently announced the re-entry of PEPSI into the Zambian market at full production level. This will certainly enhance competition in the market of carbonated soft drinks.

to set up mining ventures in Northwestern and Luapula Provinces of Zambia if

Zambia Competition Commission (ZCC) is excited with the announcement

the prospecting licenses are approved by the government on time. Company

saying the reentry of the PEPSI brand will result in less or no shortages of

President Charles Shi said his company was ready to set up the new city

carbonated soft drinks as well as “favourable distribution and pricing ar-

once the paper work is completed. He made the announcement when Zam-

rangements in the sector.” ZCC Executive Director Thula Kaira said the

bia’s Commerce and Industry Minister Felix Mutati visited the headquarters of the Chinese company in Beijing. Russian Investors have also expressed similar ideas. They intend to set up mines and new cities within Zambia at an estimated cost of US$ 2 billion.

coming in of PEPSI will greatly change the market, which has been dominated by one brand. “The current competition and consumer welfare benefits in the sector leave much to be desired and there is need to support the PEPSI announcement,” he said.

10 Executive Executive Issues Issues

News

Volume 4 - October 2008

The Editorial that Disappeared!

In the event that you didn’t notice, The Post Newspaper on September 18 posted an Editorial Comment on its website, which was discreetly withdrawn – without any explanation - around 09:00 hours the same day, we will reproduce it below. The Editorial was different from the one which appeared in the printed version of the newspaper that day. Titled “Rupiah may have to vacate the Office of Vice President”, it argued wrongly, that acting President Rupiah Bwezani Banda would cease to be Vice President upon lodging his nomination papers for the presidential election. The argument advanced in the editorial was interesting even though frivolous and vexatious. Had the author(s) read Article 71(2) (d) of the Constitution, they would have known better. The said Article clearly states that a Member of Parliament can only vacate his seat if he is elected and assumes the office of President. The Editorial : “Rupiah may have to vacate the Office of Vice-President “Whoever wants to keep the Law must learn what the law means” (Sirach 21:11). “Every lawless act leaves an incurable wound, like one left by a doubleedged sword” (Sirach 21:3). “A group of people who have no respect for the Law is like a pile of kindling; they will meet a fiery end” (Sirach 21:9). This is what the Bible tells us about the Law. And according to the Constitution of the Republic of Zambia, the supreme Law of our country, Vice-President Rupiah Banda may on Tuesday next week after he files his nomination papers as a presidential candidate in the October 30 elections will have to vacate the Office of Vice-President. We say this because Article 45(1) (2) states that the Vice-President shall be appointed by the President from amongst the members of the National Assembly. And under Article 65(1) (2), a person shall not be qualified to be elected as a member of the National Assembly if he holds, or is a validly nominated candidate in an election for, the Office of the President. Article 71(1) (2) (f) states that a member of the National Assembly shall vacate his seat in the assembly if any circumstances arise that, if he were not the member of the assembly, would cause him to be disqualified for election as such under Article 65. We have sought legal interpretation of these articles from very senior lawyers belonging to the opposition, the ruling MMD, the government and some who have no political affiliation at all. And their interpretation of the Constitution is that Rupiah will have to vacate the Office of Vice-President if he files nomination papers to contest the October 30 presidential elections. This will mean that if he doesn’t do so, legal challenges may be commenced against him before even the elections are held. If not so, there will be serious election petitions against his election after October 30. This will also mean that Rupiah will become an ordinary citizen and will not be allowed to use government motor vehicles, Zambia Air Force planes and other state facilities that are not extended to the other candidates. This may be a big blow to Rupiah’s campaign. But if this is what the law demands, then let it be so. This constitutional requirement does not only apply to Rupiah. If Sakwiba Sikota on Tuesday files nomination papers to contest the presidency, he will have to vacate his seat in parliament. This is what the Constitution requires. For Rupiah he will not only vacate his nominated seat in Parliament, he will also have to vacate the Office of Vice-President which he can’t occupy if he ceases to be a Member of Parliament. We know that in trying to justify the adoption of Rupiah as the MMD’s presi-

dential candidate, Tetamashimba told the nation that in doing so, they were seeking a constitutional advantage because Vice-President Rupiah would be able to use state facilities and resources in his campaign. We do appreciate that the party in power may enjoy advantages of incumbency, but the rules and conduct of the election contest must be fair and within the law. So far, Rupiah has not kept strictly within the law. The distribution of sugar and mealie-meal in Katete last week cannot be said to have been within the law. Attempts have been made to justify Rupiah’s distribution of sugar and mealie-meal in Katete. It has been argued that Rupiah was not campaigning but merely performing an official function as Vice-President of the Republic of Zambia. This is a lie. Today we have produced the verbatim speech of Rupiah as he was distributing sugar and mealie-meal in Katete. And it shows clearly that he was campaigning to be elected as president. We are advised: “Admit when you are wrong, and you avoid embarrassment” (Sirach 20:3). Anyway, when you have got power and influence, many people will come to your defence even when you are clearly wrong: “When a rich man stumbles, his friends will steady him, but if a poor man falls, his friends will have nothing to do with him. When a rich man makes a mistake, there are many people to cover up for him and explain away all the things he never should have said. But let a poor man make a mistake, and he gets nothing but criticism. Even if what he says makes good sense, nobody will listen” (Sirach 13:21-22). There are many people who seem to be very ready to lie for Rupiah so that he becomes president and they benefit from his appointments and other favours. Today, all sorts of creatures surround Rupiah simply because they think he will be able to give them jobs and other favours if he becomes president. But let him lose the October 30 elections and see how many of these creatures will surround him! But probably they have gone to Rupiah because he is their kind. It is said that “every creature prefers its own kind, and people are no different. Just as animals of the same species flock together, so people keep company with people like themselves” (Sirach 13:15-16). There is need for Rupiah and his sponsors to pay a lot of attention to the law of the land and to learn to respect the rights of others. There is no need for them to be so desperate for power and become blinded by this desire. They should realise that the exercise of the power they today have, albeit in a limited and acting way, must be the constant practice of self limitation and modesty. We urge the Zambian people to make sure that all those competing for political office do so within the confines of the law. And no one should be blinded by the personal benefits they may get if the person they are supporting wins. Lawlessness, arbitrariness and intolerance should be opposed at all times. And in saying this, we are reminded of what Martin Luther King Jr said in a sermon at Ebenezer on November 5, 1967: “I say to you, this morning, that if you have never found something so dear and so precious to you that you will die for it, then you aren’t fit to live. You may be thirty-eight years old, as I happen to be, and one day, some great opportunity stands before you and calls upon you to stand up for some great principle, some great issue, some great cause. And you refuse to do it because you are afraid. You refuse to do it because you want to live longer. You are afraid that you will lose your job, or you are afraid that you will be criticised or that you will lose your popularity, or you are afraid that somebody will stab you or shoot at you or bomb your house. So you refuse to take the stand. Well, you may go on and live until ninety, but you are just as dead

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Business News

Volume 4 - October 2008

at thirty-eight as you would be at ninety. And the cessation of breathing in your life is but the belated announcement of an earlier death of the spirit. You died when you refused to stand up for right. You died when you refused to stand up for truth. You died when you refused to stand up for justice… “Don’t ever think that you are by yourself. Go on to jail if necessary, but you never go alone. Take a stand for that which is right, and the world may misunderstand you, and criticise you. But you never go alone, for somewhere I read that one with God is a majority. And God has a way of transforming a minority into a majority. Walk with Him this morning and believe in Him and do what is right, and He will be with you even until the consummation of the ages. Yes, I have seen the lightning flash. I have heard the thunder roll. I have felt sin breakers dashing, trying to conquer my soul, but I heard the voice of Jesus saying, still to fight on. He promised never to leave me alone, never to leave me alone. No, never alone. No, never alone.” We have a choice to make between right and wrong; one can even say between life and death; and we will get whichever we choose. But let us not forget that the road that those who choose wrong walk, over right, is smooth and paved, but it leads to the world of the dead. It is said that “fools say whatever comes to mind; wise people think before they speak. When a wicked man curses his enemy, he is cursing himself” (Sirach 21:26-27). Rupiah and his sponsors should try to address some of these issues in an honest manner because whatever they do, these issues will never disappear. Even if they win the October 30 elections, these issues will still resurface to hound them. It is better for them to lose an election than to go into office with such burdens. If they do, they will not enjoy a single day of their victory because it will be a very meaningless one, a hollow one. There is still time for them to redeem themselves. Again, the choice is theirs.

Executive Issues, a new intelligence newsletter, was primarily established to become the ultimate source of reliable information on Zambia. It will provide timely and up-to-date, informed and in-depth analysis into the country’s political, economic and financial activities. This unique publication will mainly provide coverage on hard-to-find confidential news for specialized readership that will include diplomats, chief executive officers, managers, banks, lawmakers, lawyers, politicians and academicians. The publication will have no links to either government or political movements. With a chain of experienced correspondents, Executive Issues will strategically position itself as a ‘mustread’ publication for people interested to know Zambia, its movers and shakers; and the risk factors for investors or would-be investors; and the general decision making processes which might affect various interests. Executive Issues is a subscription-based newsletter, which will also provide tailor-made Special Reports for clients who may need detailed analysis on any subject matter on and about Zambia. Founded and registered in Zambia as a newspaper, Executive Issues went through a thorough process of thinking and planning before finally launching in 2008. It is published by Brentwood Public Affairs Limited, a premier media advisory firm, specializing in profiling, media monitoring and tracking,

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