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Energy Independence PRO
Energy Independence PRO Arya
Index 1. Negative Philosophy 1) American foreign oil dependence is a great risk with serious impacts.
2. Inherency: United States is dependent on Oil Imports……………3-5 2) 3) 4) 5) 6)
United States is the largest oil importer Oil consumption makes 40% of America’s energy Oil accounts for 42% of CO2 emissions. Oil is major source of energy and fuel in America Oil will remain America’s primary source of energy
3. Significance: U.S. Security is harmed by Oil Dependency….……..5-11 7) Oil dependency can be used by terrorists as a weapon. 8) Petroleum plays essential role in U.S. national security 9) Oil is a determinant of national security 10) Oil dependency increases strategic vulnerability in foreign policy. 11) The oil revenues to exporting countries allow flexibility for them to adopt opposing policies to U.S. values. 12) The United States is constrained when dealing with exporting countries. 13) The fear of unsecure supply of oil leads to political arrangements that are harmful. 14) Oil dependence causes political realignments that restrain the U.S. in different ways. 15) Oil exports undermine local governance.
4. Significance U.S. Economy is harmed by Oil Dependency……....11-14 16) Oil dependence exposes the U.S. economy 17) Oil contributes much to the economy 18) Interruption in oil supply will have adverse political and economic consequences. 19) There is a relationship between oil dependence and the U.S. defense budget. 20) Energy brings about our great national predicaments 21) There are harmful effects of an interruption in oil production. 22) Historical precedence: interruption of foreign oil supply does happen
Energy Independence PRO
5. Status Quo Advantage: SQ factors are weakening oil’s dominance in the United States……………………………………………………15-17 23) Must end the dominance of oil use in transportation. 24) Plug-In Hybrids can reduce oil dependence 25) Hybrids could displace 1/3 of oil in light duty vehicles. 26) Bio-fuels could replace a significant amount of oil. 27) Conventional Efficiency Technologies improve fuel efficiency.
6. Solvency: Ending oil dependence is an Achievable Goal………17-18 28) National Consensus on oil dependence. 29) U.S. can end its dependence on foreign oil. 30) Energy independence can be achieved. 31) Opportunity for transformational change.
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Energy Independence PRO
Argument 1: Negative Philosophy Oil dependence harms the United States Economy and Security.
1) American foreign oil dependence is a great risk with serious impacts. By Jay Hakes (Hakes was head of the Energy Information Administration at the U.S. Department at the Department of Energy from 1993 to 2000, where he oversaw the collection and dissemination of America’s official energy data and analysis. He has given testimony before congressional committees on more than twenty-five occasions.) “A Declaration of Energy Independence” 2008. ISBN: 9780470267639. (Book) (JA) “This book argues that American dependence on foreign oil at current levels (60 percent of total consumption) constitutes a grave security and economic risk with greater consequences than the war in Iraq. As much as laissez-faire economists want to deny the obvious, importing oil from the Persian Gulf and other unstable regions has much bigger strategic impacts than getting, for instance, televisions or running shoes from Asia.”
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Argument 1: United States Oil Imports 2) United States is largest oil importer “The National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency” by Ariel Cohen (Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.) Published by the Heritage Foundation. March 22, 2007. http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/hl1021.cfm (JA) “The United States is the largest oil importer in the world, bringing in 13.5 million barrels per day (mbd), which accounts for 63.5 percent of total U.S. daily consumption (20.6 mbd).[1] Oil from the Middle East--specifically, the Persian Gulf--accounts for 20 percent of U.S. oil imports, and this dependence is growing. By 2017, the U.S. will be importing approximately 68 percent of its oil needs.” 3) Oil consumption makes 40% of America’s energy “The National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency” by Ariel Cohen (Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.) Published by the Heritage Foundation. March 22, 2007. http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/hl1021.cfm (JA) “Oil consumption represents 40 percent of America's energy needs, primarily used in ground and air transportation. The dependence of the U.S. and the global economy on oil is growing, which can have dire consequences for the economic well-being of the United States, our national security, and the American way of life.” 4) Oil accounts for 42% of CO2 emissions “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow.(David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “Oil is one of Earth’s principal reservoirs of carbon. When oil is burned, this carbon is transformed into carbon dioxide, which stays in atmosphere -- trapping heat -- for more than a century. Today, oil accounts for 42% of the world’s energy-related carbon dioxide emissions (more than coal).11”
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5) Oil is major source of energy and fuel in America By Professor Michael T. Klare (Ph.D. Michael T. Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies (a joint appointment at Amherst College, Hampshire College, Mount Holyoke College, Smith College, and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst), and Director of the Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies (PAWSS), a position he has held since 1985. Before assuming his present post, he served as Director of the Program on Militarism and Disarmament at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. (1977-84). Professor Klare has written widely on U.S. defense policy, the arms trade, and world security affairs.)“Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum” 2004. ISBN: 0141020032 (Book) (JA) “ ‘Petroleum,’ the energy expert Edward L. Morse says, ‘has proven to be the most versatile fuel source ever discovered situated at the core of the modern industrial economy.’ This has certainly been the case in the United States, where oil is a major source of energy and a key driver of economic growth. Petroleum provides approximately 40 percent of the nation’s total energy supply- far more than any other source. (Natural gas supplies 24 percent, coal 23 percent, nuclear power 8 percent, and all others 5 percent.) Oil serves many functions- powering industry, heating homes and schools, providing the raw material for plastics and a wide range of other products- but it is in transportation that its role is most essential. At present petroleum products account for 97 percent of all fuel used by America’s mammoth fleets of cars, trucks, buses, planes, trains, and ships.”
6) Oil will remain America’s primary source of energy By Professor Michael T. Klare (Ph.D. Michael T. Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies (a joint appointment at Amherst College, Hampshire College, Mount Holyoke College, Smith College, and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst), and Director of the Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies (PAWSS), a position he has held since 1985. Before assuming his present post, he served as Director of the Program on Militarism and Disarmament at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. (1977-84). Professor Klare has written widely on U.S. defense policy, the arms trade, and world security affairs.)“Blood and Oil: The Dangers and
Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum” 2004. ISBN: 0141020032 (Book) (JA) “Most analysts believe that oil will remain the nation’s principal source of energy for many years to come. This is so because other sources of energy are either too scarce (natural gas, hydropower), too costly (wind, solar), or are too harmful in generating by – products (carbon dioxide in the case of coal, radioactive waste in the case of nuclear power).”
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Argument 2: U.S. Security
7) Oil dependency can be used by terrorists as a weapon. “The National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency” by Ariel Cohen (Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.) Published by the Heritage Foundation. March 22, 2007. http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/hl1021.cfm (JA) [Inside evidence citation: Mitchell G. Bard, "Middle East Policy and Oil," Jewish Virtual Library, atwww.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/usoil.html (March 29, 2006).]
“Many Arab leaders understand the dynamic of the world's oil dependence. For example, as early as 1990, the late Yassir Arafat said: ‘When the North Sea oil dries up in 1991, the United States will want to buy Arab petroleum. And when the American oil fields them selves run dry and oil consumption in the United States increases, the American need for the Arabs will grow greater and greater.[7]’this observation has not been lost on the cur rent generation of politicians and terrorist leaders. However, bin Laden and Zawahiri are not satisfied with the unwieldy weapons of oil boycotts and buying political influence in the West. Instead, they are clearly zeroing in on the oil-rich kingdoms of Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf as their principal targets. They also appear increasingly interested in attacking the entire global oil industry, from wells to wheels.”
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8) Petroleum plays essential role in U.S. national security By Professor Michael T. Klare (Ph.D. Michael T. Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies (a joint appointment at Amherst College, Hampshire College, Mount Holyoke College, Smith College, and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst), and Director of the Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies (PAWSS), a position he has held since 1985. Before assuming his present post, he served as Director of the Program on Militarism and Disarmament at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. (1977-84). Professor Klare has written widely on U.S. defense policy, the arms trade, and world security affairs.)“Blood and Oil: The Dangers and
Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum” 2004. ISBN: 0141020032 (Book) (JA) “Just as petroleum fuels the economy, it also plays an essential role in U.S. national security. The American military relies more than that of any other nation on oil-powered ships, planes, helicopters, and armored vehicles to transport troops into battle and rain down weapons on its foes. Although the Pentagon may boast of its ever-advancing use of computers and other high-tech devices, the fighting machines that form the backbone of the U.S. military are entirely dependent on petroleum. Without an abundant and reliable supply of oil, the Department of Defense could neither rush its forces to distant battlefields nor keep them supplied once deployed there.”
9) Oil is a determinant of national security By Professor Michael T. Klare (Ph.D. Michael T. Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies (a joint appointment at Amherst College, Hampshire College, Mount Holyoke College, Smith College, and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst), and Director of the Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies (PAWSS), a position he has held since 1985. Before assuming his present post, he served as Director of the Program on Militarism and Disarmament at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. (1977-84). Professor Klare has written widely on U.S. defense policy, the arms trade, and world security affairs.)“Blood and Oil: The Dangers and
Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum” 2004. ISBN: 0141020032 (Book) (JA) “Oil fuels more than automobiles and airplanes,’ Robert E. Ebel, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told a State Department audience in April 2002. “Oil fuels military power, national treasuries, and international politics.” Far more than a simple commodity to be bought and sold on the international market, petroleum “is a determinant of well being, of national security, and international power for those who possess this vital resource and the converse for those who do not.”
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10) Oil dependency increases strategic vulnerability in foreign policy. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “The lack of sustained attention to energy issues is undercutting U.S. foreign policy and U.S. national security. Major energy suppliers- from Russia to Iran to Venezuela- have been increasingly able and willing to use their energy resources to pursue their strategic and political objectives. Major energy consumers- notably the United States, but other countries as well- are finding that their growing dependence on imported energy increases their strategic vulnerability and constrains their ability to pursue a broad range of foreign policy and national security objectives. Dependence also puts the United States into increasing competition with other importing countries, notably with today’s rapidly growing emerging economies of China and India. At best, these trends will challenge U.S. foreign policy; at worst, they will seriously strain relations between the United States and these countries.” 11) The oil revenues to exporting countries allow flexibility for them to adopt opposing policies to U.S. values. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “First, the control over enormous oil revenues gives exporting countries the flexibility to adopt policies that oppose U.S. interests and values. Iran proceeds with a program that appears to be headed toward acquiring a nuclear weapons capability. Russia is able to ignore Western attitudes as it has moved to authoritarian policies in part because huge revenues from oil and gas exports are available to finance that style of government. Venezuela has the resources from its oil exports to invite realignment in Latin American political relationships and to fund changes such as Argentina’s exit from its International Monetary Fund (IMF) standby agreement and Bolivia’s recent decision to nationalize its oil and gas resources. Because of their oil wealth, these and other producer countries are free to ignore U.S. policies and to pursuer interests inimical to our national security.”
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12) The United States is constrained when dealing with exporting countries. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “All consuming countries, including the United States, are more constrained with dealing with producing states when oil markets are tight. To cite one current example, concern about losing Iran’s 2.5 million barrels per day of world oil exports will cause importing states to be reluctant to take action against Iran’s nuclear program.”
13) The fear of unsecure supply of oil leads to political arrangements that are harmful. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “Third, high prices and seemingly scarce supplies create fears- especially evident in Beijing and New Delhi, as well as in European capitals and in Washington- that the current system of open markets is unable to ensure secure supply. The present competition has resulted in oil and gas deals that include political arrangements in addition to commercial terms. Highly publicized Chinese oil investments in Africa have included funding for infrastructure projects such as an airport, a railroad, and a telecommunications system, in addition to the agreement that the oil be shipped to China. Many more of these investments also include equity stakes for state-controlled Chinese companies. Another example is Chinese firms taking a position in Saudi Arabia, along with several Western firms, in developing Saudi Arabia’s gas infrastructure. At present, these arrangements have little effect on world oil and gas markets because the volumes affected are small. However such arrangements are spreading. These arrangements are worrisome because they lead to special political relationships that pose difficulties for the United States. And they allow importers to believe that they obtain security through links to particular suppliers rather than from the proper functioning of a global market.”
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14) Oil dependence causes political realignments that restrain the U.S. in different ways. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “Second, oil dependence causes political realignments that constrain the ability of the United States to form partnerships to achieve common objectives. Perhaps the most pervasive effect arises as countries dependent on imports subtly modify their policies to be more congenial to suppliers. For example, China is aligning its relationships in the Middle East (e.g., Iran and Saudi Arabia) and Africa (e.g., Nigeria and Sudan) because of its desire to secure oil supplies. France and Germany, and with them much of the European Union, are more reluctant to confront difficult issues with Russia and Iran because of their dependence on imported oil and gas as well as the desire to pursue business opportunities in those countries. These new realignments have further diminished U.S. leverage particularly in the Middle East and Central Asia. For example, Chinese interest in securing oil and gas supplies challenges U.S. influence in central Asia, notably in Kazakhstan. And Russia’s influence is likely to grow as it exports oil and (within perhaps a decade) large amounts of natural gas to Japan and China.” 15) Oil exports undermine local governance. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “Fourth, revenues from oil and gas exports can undermine local governance. The United States has an interest in promoting good governance both for its own sake and because it encourages investment that can increase the level and security of supply. States that are politically unstable and poorly governed often struggle with the task of responsibly managing the large revenues that come from their oil and gas exports. The elements of good governance include democratic accountability, low corruption, and fiscal transparency. Production in fragile democracies, such as in Nigeria, can be undermined when politicians or local warlords focus on ways to seize oil and gas rents rather than on the longer-term task of governance. Totalitarian governments that have control over those revenue flows can entrench their rule.”
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Argument 3: U.S. Economy 16) Oil dependence exposes the U.S. economy “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow.(David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “Oil dependence exposes the United States’ economy to the volatility of world oil markets. Because oil price increases can occur suddenly, consumers and businesses may be unable to adjust behavior and forced to incur higher expenses when prices rise. The impacts on low-income families and oil-intensive businesses may be especially severe.”
17) Oil contributes much to the economy By Professor Michael T. Klare (Ph.D. Michael T. Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies (a joint appointment at Amherst College, Hampshire College, Mount Holyoke College, Smith College, and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst), and Director of the Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies (PAWSS), a position he has held since 1985. Before assuming his present post, he served as Director of the Program on Militarism and Disarmament at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. (1977-84). Professor Klare has written widely on U.S. defense policy, the arms trade, and world security affairs.)“Blood and Oil: The Dangers and
Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum” 2004. ISBN: 0141020032 (Book) (JA) “It is nearly impossible to chronicle all the ways petroleum contributes to the vibrancy of the American economy. Because rapid and reliable transportation is so vital to the functioning of virtually every industry and enterprise, an abundant supply of affordable oil has been a major spur of economic growth and expansion.”
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18) Interruption in oil supply will have adverse political and economic consequences. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “Fifth, a significant interruption in oil supply will have adverse political and economic consequences in the United States and in other importing countries. When such a disruption occurs, it upends all ongoing policy activity in a frantic effort to return to normal conditions. Inevitably, those efforts include matters of foreign policy, such as coordination with other countries to find measures that will mitigate the consequences of the supply disruption. Some of these responses may be preplanned, such as the coordinated release of strategic reserves, but other responses will be hurried, ineffectual, or even counterproductive.”
19) There is a relationship between oil dependence and the U.S. defense budget. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “Sixth, some observers see a direct relationship between the dependence of the United States on oil, especially from the Persian Gulf, and the size of the U.S. defense budget. Such a relationship invites the inference that if it were not dependent on this oil, the United States and its allies would have no interest in the region, and hence it would be possible to achieve significant reductions in the U.S. military posture. In the extreme, this argument says that if the nation reduced its dependence, then the defense budget could be reduced as well.”
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20) Energy brings about our great national predicaments. By Jay Hakes (Hakes was head of the Energy Information Administration at the U.S. Department at the Department of Energy from 1993 to 2000, where he oversaw the collection and dissemination of America’s official energy data and analysis. He has given testimony before congressional committees on more than twenty-five occasions.) “A Declaration of Energy Independence” 2008. ISBN: 9780470267639. (Book) (JA) “The roots of many of our great national predicaments trace back to energy. American troops leave their families to fight in the Persian Gulf, not incidentally the region of the world with the greatest known reserves of oil. A falling U.S. dollar faces the risk of oilexporting countries switching their investments from dollars to euros. A United Nations panel of scientists reports the planet is warming, due mainly to the combustion of fossil fuels.”
21) There are harmful effects of an interruption in oil production. By Jay Hakes (Hakes was head of the Energy Information Administration at the U.S. Department at the Department of Energy from 1993 to 2000, where he oversaw the collection and dissemination of America’s official energy data and analysis. He has given testimony before congressional committees on more than twenty-five occasions.) “A Declaration of Energy Independence” 2008. ISBN: 9780470267639. (Book) (JA) “ For starters, the harmful effects of an interruption in the supply of petroleum (a word interchangeable with oil) are much greater. Petroleum products play many vital roles in moving people and things around. The Army and Air Force can conduct missions only when fueled by oil (The Navy makes extensive use of nuclear power) Trucks that carry goods to Wal-Mart and shoppers headed to their stores rely on oil. So do critical services ranging from the delivery of food to emergency medical care provided by speeding ambulances. People in the Northeast need heating oil to get through frigid winters. In short, the sudden absence of oil would shut down any modern economy and render its armed forces powerless.”
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22) Historical precedence: interruption of foreign oil supply does happen By Jay Hakes (Hakes was head of the Energy Information Administration at the U.S. Department at the Department of Energy from 1993 to 2000, where he oversaw the collection and dissemination of America’s official energy data and analysis. He has given testimony before congressional committees on more than twenty-five occasions.) “A Declaration of Energy Independence” 2008. ISBN: 9780470267639. (Book) (JA) “The risks of an interruption are not just hypothetical. A five-month Arab oil embargo in 1973-1974 crippled the American economy and led to long lines at service stations. In some states, half the stations ran out of fuel. Just five years later, the Iranian Revolution led to another massive loss of oil, the return of gasoline lines, and raging inflation. Then, in 1980, war between Iraq and Iran suddenly slashed world oil supplies by five million barrels of oil a day (8 percent). World oil supplies got clobbered again after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.”
4. Status Quo Advantage: Factors in the SQ that are weaking oil’s dominance in the U.S.
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23) Must end the dominance of oil use in transportation. Must end oil’s dominance of transportation fuels market through use of other technologies. “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “Cutting oil imports can help with some problems, such as the trade deficit. But many of the most important national security, environmental and economic problems created by oil cannot be solved by cutting imports alone. To solve these problems, we must end oil’s near-total dominance of the transportation fuels market. We must give drivers a choice between oil and other fuels. Today several technologies offer the promise of doing just that.”
24) Plug-In Hybrids can reduce oil dependence “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “To reduce oil dependence, nothing would do more good more quickly than making cars that could connect to the electric grid. The United States has a vast infrastructure for generating electric power. However, that infrastructure is essentially useless in trying to cut oil dependence, because modern cars can't connect to it. If we could build cars that ran on electricity and plugged into the grid, the potential for displacing oil would be enormous. Fortunately, we can. Several small companies are already doing this, with a first generation of “plug-in hybrid” engines designed to run both on gasoline and electricity from the grid. General Motors recently announced plans to produce light duty plug-ins.”
25) Hybrids could displace 1/3 of oil in light duty vehicles. “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007.
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http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “How much oil could plug-in hybrids displace how quickly? A lot – although the data available on U.S. driving habits only allows a rough estimate. According to the Department of Transportation, 40% of Americans travel 20 miles or less per day and 60% of Americans travel 30 miles or less each day.23 Table 1 below sets forth one possible scenario, in which plug-ins hybrids replace one-third of the oil in U.S. light duty vehicles by 2025. This assumes strong policies supporting early deployment of plug-ins and steady penetration in the vehicle fleet thereafter.”
26) Bio-fuels could replace a significant amount of oil. “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “Over the next several decades, bio-fuels have the potential to replace a significant fraction of the United States’ oil use. Estimates range from 25 to 100 billion gallons per year by 2025 (roughly 20%-70% of 2005 consumption). Ethanol imported from the Caribbean, Latin America or Brazil could add to these totals. In 2006, the U.S. industry produced roughly 5 billion gallons of ethanol – more than 3% of U.S. liquid fuels.26 Almost all ethanol in the U.S. is blended into gasoline. A small but growing number of U.S. gas stations are selling E85, a fuel made up of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. The U.S. ethanol industry is growing rapidly, with double digit growth rates and at least 73 plants under construction.” 27) Conventional Efficiency Technologies improve fuel efficiency. “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “Many existing technologies can improve fuel efficiency. Most important is the “conventional” hybrid engine. The fact that hybrid engines can now be considered “conventional” reflects the technology’s remarkable success in the past few years. The first hybrid engines were introduced into the U.S. market several years ago amidst some skepticism they would find a market. Since then consumers have regularly sought more hybrids than are available on the market, and the technology is rapidly moving into new models.”
5. Solvency: Energy Independence is Achievable 28) National Consensus on oil dependence The strong consensus about the gravity of the problem and new technologies provide an opportunity for transformational change.
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“Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “The United States is a divided nation. Deep disagreements dominate our political dialogue. Consensus eludes us on countless topics. Yet on oil dependence, an astonishing array of voices agree. National security hawks raise alarms about the vast sums of money sent each year to the Persian Gulf. Environmentalists warn about global warming. Farmers see new fortunes in the transition to ethanol. Consumers cry out when oil prices rise. Politicians as different as President George W. Bush, Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN), Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) and Democratic National Committee Chair Howard Dean all call for an end to the United States’ oil "addiction." In doing so, they echo the words of Presidents of both parties, who have been decrying our dependence on foreign oil for more than three decades.”
29) United States can end dependence on oil. With sustained commitment, we can end the United States’ debilitating dependence on oil. “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “The consensus on this topic is not complete, of course. Disagreements and different emphases arise on some aspects of the problem. And, though more than 85% of Americans say oil dependence is a serious problem, a roughly equal percentage oppose any increase in the gasoline tax. Complications and contradictions will bedevil any leader who addresses this issue. Still, a confluence of factors – including a broad political consensus, game-changing technological advances and strong interest from private investors – create the conditions for transformational change. These conditions offer the prospect of a lasting legacy to the leaders who make oil dependence a priority. But it will take just that – making the issue a priority. Easy rhetoric and small initiatives will not be enough. With sustained commitment, we can end the United States’ debilitating dependence on oil.” 30) Energy independence can be achieved “Iran and Brazil Can Do It. So Can We.” By Gal Luft. (Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security and co-founder of the Set America Free Coalition, a bipartisan alliance of groups promoting U.S. energy independence. He holds degrees in international relations, international economics, Middle East studies and strategic studies and a doctorate in strategic studies
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from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS,) Johns Hopkins University)
Published by the Washington Post. July 6, 2008. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/07/03/AR2008070303250_2.html (JA)
“Energy independence does not mean that the United States must be entirely selfsufficient. It simply means reducing the role of oil in world politics -- turning it from a strategic commodity into merely another thing to sell. Is energy independence a pipe dream? Hardly. In the electricity sector, the mission has already been accomplished. Remember President Jimmy Carter in his cardigan during the oil crises of the 1970s, urging Americans to save electricity? It took us just one decade to wean the electricity sector from oil. Today, only 2 percent of U.S. electricity comes from oil, according to the Energy Department. Could we do something similar with transportation, where American cars and trucks still gulp oil-based fuel greedily? At least four very different countries -dictatorships and democracies alike -- are already making serious headway toward that goal. It's past time to pay attention to their example.” 31) Opportunity for transformational change. There is an opportunity for transformational change.
“Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “Ending oil dependence doesn’t mean ending oil use. It means ending our near-total reliance on oil as a transportation fuel. It means giving drivers a choice between oil and other fuels. If most or all of the proposals above were implemented, the United States could end its debilitating dependence on oil in a generation. Under reasonable assumptions, plug-in hybrids could replace more than 45 billion gallons of gasoline per year by 2025. (See Table 1.) Bio-fuels could replace roughly 40 billion gallons of gasoline in the same time frame. (This would require production of roughly 60 billion gallons of ethanol, due to ethanol’s lower energy content.) Efficiency technologies could cut fuel use by a third. The result would be a transformed market for transportation fuels. Although estimates of federal budget costs depend on many specific decisions concerning program design, costs could run from several billion to approximately to $10 billion per year. Rough cost estimates are set out at Table 2. Oil dependence lies behind several of the most important problems facing the United States. The strong consensus about the gravity of the problem and new technologies provide an opportunity for transformational change.”
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Energy Independence PRO Arya
Index 1. Negative Philosophy 1) American foreign oil dependence is a great risk with serious impacts.
2. Inherency: United States is dependent on Oil Imports……………3-5 2) 3) 4) 5) 6)
United States is the largest oil importer Oil consumption makes 40% of America’s energy Oil accounts for 42% of CO2 emissions. Oil is major source of energy and fuel in America Oil will remain America’s primary source of energy
3. Significance: U.S. Security is harmed by Oil Dependency….……..5-11 7) Oil dependency can be used by terrorists as a weapon. 8) Petroleum plays essential role in U.S. national security 9) Oil is a determinant of national security 10) Oil dependency increases strategic vulnerability in foreign policy. 11) The oil revenues to exporting countries allow flexibility for them to adopt opposing policies to U.S. values. 12) The United States is constrained when dealing with exporting countries. 13) The fear of unsecure supply of oil leads to political arrangements that are harmful. 14) Oil dependence causes political realignments that restrain the U.S. in different ways. 15) Oil exports undermine local governance.
4. Significance U.S. Economy is harmed by Oil Dependency……....11-14 16) Oil dependence exposes the U.S. economy 17) Oil contributes much to the economy 18) Interruption in oil supply will have adverse political and economic consequences. 19) There is a relationship between oil dependence and the U.S. defense budget. 20) Energy brings about our great national predicaments 21) There are harmful effects of an interruption in oil production. 22) Historical precedence: interruption of foreign oil supply does happen
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5. Status Quo Advantage: SQ factors are weakening oil’s dominance in the United States……………………………………………………15-17 23) Must end the dominance of oil use in transportation. 24) Plug-In Hybrids can reduce oil dependence 25) Hybrids could displace 1/3 of oil in light duty vehicles. 26) Bio-fuels could replace a significant amount of oil. 27) Conventional Efficiency Technologies improve fuel efficiency.
6. Solvency: Ending oil dependence is an Achievable Goal………17-18 28) National Consensus on oil dependence. 29) U.S. can end its dependence on foreign oil. 30) Energy independence can be achieved. 31) Opportunity for transformational change.
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Argument 1: Negative Philosophy Oil dependence harms the United States Economy and Security.
1) American foreign oil dependence is a great risk with serious impacts. By Jay Hakes (Hakes was head of the Energy Information Administration at the U.S. Department at the Department of Energy from 1993 to 2000, where he oversaw the collection and dissemination of America’s official energy data and analysis. He has given testimony before congressional committees on more than twenty-five occasions.) “A Declaration of Energy Independence” 2008. ISBN: 9780470267639. (Book) (JA) “This book argues that American dependence on foreign oil at current levels (60 percent of total consumption) constitutes a grave security and economic risk with greater consequences than the war in Iraq. As much as laissez-faire economists want to deny the obvious, importing oil from the Persian Gulf and other unstable regions has much bigger strategic impacts than getting, for instance, televisions or running shoes from Asia.”
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Argument 1: United States Oil Imports 2) United States is largest oil importer “The National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency” by Ariel Cohen (Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.) Published by the Heritage Foundation. March 22, 2007. http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/hl1021.cfm (JA) “The United States is the largest oil importer in the world, bringing in 13.5 million barrels per day (mbd), which accounts for 63.5 percent of total U.S. daily consumption (20.6 mbd).[1] Oil from the Middle East--specifically, the Persian Gulf--accounts for 20 percent of U.S. oil imports, and this dependence is growing. By 2017, the U.S. will be importing approximately 68 percent of its oil needs.” 3) Oil consumption makes 40% of America’s energy “The National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency” by Ariel Cohen (Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.) Published by the Heritage Foundation. March 22, 2007. http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/hl1021.cfm (JA) “Oil consumption represents 40 percent of America's energy needs, primarily used in ground and air transportation. The dependence of the U.S. and the global economy on oil is growing, which can have dire consequences for the economic well-being of the United States, our national security, and the American way of life.” 4) Oil accounts for 42% of CO2 emissions “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow.(David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “Oil is one of Earth’s principal reservoirs of carbon. When oil is burned, this carbon is transformed into carbon dioxide, which stays in atmosphere -- trapping heat -- for more than a century. Today, oil accounts for 42% of the world’s energy-related carbon dioxide emissions (more than coal).11”
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5) Oil is major source of energy and fuel in America By Professor Michael T. Klare (Ph.D. Michael T. Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies (a joint appointment at Amherst College, Hampshire College, Mount Holyoke College, Smith College, and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst), and Director of the Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies (PAWSS), a position he has held since 1985. Before assuming his present post, he served as Director of the Program on Militarism and Disarmament at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. (1977-84). Professor Klare has written widely on U.S. defense policy, the arms trade, and world security affairs.)“Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum” 2004. ISBN: 0141020032 (Book) (JA) “ ‘Petroleum,’ the energy expert Edward L. Morse says, ‘has proven to be the most versatile fuel source ever discovered situated at the core of the modern industrial economy.’ This has certainly been the case in the United States, where oil is a major source of energy and a key driver of economic growth. Petroleum provides approximately 40 percent of the nation’s total energy supply- far more than any other source. (Natural gas supplies 24 percent, coal 23 percent, nuclear power 8 percent, and all others 5 percent.) Oil serves many functions- powering industry, heating homes and schools, providing the raw material for plastics and a wide range of other products- but it is in transportation that its role is most essential. At present petroleum products account for 97 percent of all fuel used by America’s mammoth fleets of cars, trucks, buses, planes, trains, and ships.”
6) Oil will remain America’s primary source of energy By Professor Michael T. Klare (Ph.D. Michael T. Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies (a joint appointment at Amherst College, Hampshire College, Mount Holyoke College, Smith College, and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst), and Director of the Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies (PAWSS), a position he has held since 1985. Before assuming his present post, he served as Director of the Program on Militarism and Disarmament at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. (1977-84). Professor Klare has written widely on U.S. defense policy, the arms trade, and world security affairs.)“Blood and Oil: The Dangers and
Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum” 2004. ISBN: 0141020032 (Book) (JA) “Most analysts believe that oil will remain the nation’s principal source of energy for many years to come. This is so because other sources of energy are either too scarce (natural gas, hydropower), too costly (wind, solar), or are too harmful in generating by – products (carbon dioxide in the case of coal, radioactive waste in the case of nuclear power).”
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Argument 2: U.S. Security
7) Oil dependency can be used by terrorists as a weapon. “The National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency” by Ariel Cohen (Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.) Published by the Heritage Foundation. March 22, 2007. http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/hl1021.cfm (JA) [Inside evidence citation: Mitchell G. Bard, "Middle East Policy and Oil," Jewish Virtual Library, atwww.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/usoil.html (March 29, 2006).]
“Many Arab leaders understand the dynamic of the world's oil dependence. For example, as early as 1990, the late Yassir Arafat said: ‘When the North Sea oil dries up in 1991, the United States will want to buy Arab petroleum. And when the American oil fields them selves run dry and oil consumption in the United States increases, the American need for the Arabs will grow greater and greater.[7]’this observation has not been lost on the cur rent generation of politicians and terrorist leaders. However, bin Laden and Zawahiri are not satisfied with the unwieldy weapons of oil boycotts and buying political influence in the West. Instead, they are clearly zeroing in on the oil-rich kingdoms of Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf as their principal targets. They also appear increasingly interested in attacking the entire global oil industry, from wells to wheels.”
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8) Petroleum plays essential role in U.S. national security By Professor Michael T. Klare (Ph.D. Michael T. Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies (a joint appointment at Amherst College, Hampshire College, Mount Holyoke College, Smith College, and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst), and Director of the Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies (PAWSS), a position he has held since 1985. Before assuming his present post, he served as Director of the Program on Militarism and Disarmament at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. (1977-84). Professor Klare has written widely on U.S. defense policy, the arms trade, and world security affairs.)“Blood and Oil: The Dangers and
Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum” 2004. ISBN: 0141020032 (Book) (JA) “Just as petroleum fuels the economy, it also plays an essential role in U.S. national security. The American military relies more than that of any other nation on oil-powered ships, planes, helicopters, and armored vehicles to transport troops into battle and rain down weapons on its foes. Although the Pentagon may boast of its ever-advancing use of computers and other high-tech devices, the fighting machines that form the backbone of the U.S. military are entirely dependent on petroleum. Without an abundant and reliable supply of oil, the Department of Defense could neither rush its forces to distant battlefields nor keep them supplied once deployed there.”
9) Oil is a determinant of national security By Professor Michael T. Klare (Ph.D. Michael T. Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies (a joint appointment at Amherst College, Hampshire College, Mount Holyoke College, Smith College, and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst), and Director of the Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies (PAWSS), a position he has held since 1985. Before assuming his present post, he served as Director of the Program on Militarism and Disarmament at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. (1977-84). Professor Klare has written widely on U.S. defense policy, the arms trade, and world security affairs.)“Blood and Oil: The Dangers and
Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum” 2004. ISBN: 0141020032 (Book) (JA) “Oil fuels more than automobiles and airplanes,’ Robert E. Ebel, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told a State Department audience in April 2002. “Oil fuels military power, national treasuries, and international politics.” Far more than a simple commodity to be bought and sold on the international market, petroleum “is a determinant of well being, of national security, and international power for those who possess this vital resource and the converse for those who do not.”
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10) Oil dependency increases strategic vulnerability in foreign policy. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “The lack of sustained attention to energy issues is undercutting U.S. foreign policy and U.S. national security. Major energy suppliers- from Russia to Iran to Venezuela- have been increasingly able and willing to use their energy resources to pursue their strategic and political objectives. Major energy consumers- notably the United States, but other countries as well- are finding that their growing dependence on imported energy increases their strategic vulnerability and constrains their ability to pursue a broad range of foreign policy and national security objectives. Dependence also puts the United States into increasing competition with other importing countries, notably with today’s rapidly growing emerging economies of China and India. At best, these trends will challenge U.S. foreign policy; at worst, they will seriously strain relations between the United States and these countries.” 11) The oil revenues to exporting countries allow flexibility for them to adopt opposing policies to U.S. values. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “First, the control over enormous oil revenues gives exporting countries the flexibility to adopt policies that oppose U.S. interests and values. Iran proceeds with a program that appears to be headed toward acquiring a nuclear weapons capability. Russia is able to ignore Western attitudes as it has moved to authoritarian policies in part because huge revenues from oil and gas exports are available to finance that style of government. Venezuela has the resources from its oil exports to invite realignment in Latin American political relationships and to fund changes such as Argentina’s exit from its International Monetary Fund (IMF) standby agreement and Bolivia’s recent decision to nationalize its oil and gas resources. Because of their oil wealth, these and other producer countries are free to ignore U.S. policies and to pursuer interests inimical to our national security.”
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12) The United States is constrained when dealing with exporting countries. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “All consuming countries, including the United States, are more constrained with dealing with producing states when oil markets are tight. To cite one current example, concern about losing Iran’s 2.5 million barrels per day of world oil exports will cause importing states to be reluctant to take action against Iran’s nuclear program.”
13) The fear of unsecure supply of oil leads to political arrangements that are harmful. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “Third, high prices and seemingly scarce supplies create fears- especially evident in Beijing and New Delhi, as well as in European capitals and in Washington- that the current system of open markets is unable to ensure secure supply. The present competition has resulted in oil and gas deals that include political arrangements in addition to commercial terms. Highly publicized Chinese oil investments in Africa have included funding for infrastructure projects such as an airport, a railroad, and a telecommunications system, in addition to the agreement that the oil be shipped to China. Many more of these investments also include equity stakes for state-controlled Chinese companies. Another example is Chinese firms taking a position in Saudi Arabia, along with several Western firms, in developing Saudi Arabia’s gas infrastructure. At present, these arrangements have little effect on world oil and gas markets because the volumes affected are small. However such arrangements are spreading. These arrangements are worrisome because they lead to special political relationships that pose difficulties for the United States. And they allow importers to believe that they obtain security through links to particular suppliers rather than from the proper functioning of a global market.”
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14) Oil dependence causes political realignments that restrain the U.S. in different ways. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “Second, oil dependence causes political realignments that constrain the ability of the United States to form partnerships to achieve common objectives. Perhaps the most pervasive effect arises as countries dependent on imports subtly modify their policies to be more congenial to suppliers. For example, China is aligning its relationships in the Middle East (e.g., Iran and Saudi Arabia) and Africa (e.g., Nigeria and Sudan) because of its desire to secure oil supplies. France and Germany, and with them much of the European Union, are more reluctant to confront difficult issues with Russia and Iran because of their dependence on imported oil and gas as well as the desire to pursue business opportunities in those countries. These new realignments have further diminished U.S. leverage particularly in the Middle East and Central Asia. For example, Chinese interest in securing oil and gas supplies challenges U.S. influence in central Asia, notably in Kazakhstan. And Russia’s influence is likely to grow as it exports oil and (within perhaps a decade) large amounts of natural gas to Japan and China.” 15) Oil exports undermine local governance. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “Fourth, revenues from oil and gas exports can undermine local governance. The United States has an interest in promoting good governance both for its own sake and because it encourages investment that can increase the level and security of supply. States that are politically unstable and poorly governed often struggle with the task of responsibly managing the large revenues that come from their oil and gas exports. The elements of good governance include democratic accountability, low corruption, and fiscal transparency. Production in fragile democracies, such as in Nigeria, can be undermined when politicians or local warlords focus on ways to seize oil and gas rents rather than on the longer-term task of governance. Totalitarian governments that have control over those revenue flows can entrench their rule.”
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Argument 3: U.S. Economy 16) Oil dependence exposes the U.S. economy “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow.(David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “Oil dependence exposes the United States’ economy to the volatility of world oil markets. Because oil price increases can occur suddenly, consumers and businesses may be unable to adjust behavior and forced to incur higher expenses when prices rise. The impacts on low-income families and oil-intensive businesses may be especially severe.”
17) Oil contributes much to the economy By Professor Michael T. Klare (Ph.D. Michael T. Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies (a joint appointment at Amherst College, Hampshire College, Mount Holyoke College, Smith College, and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst), and Director of the Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies (PAWSS), a position he has held since 1985. Before assuming his present post, he served as Director of the Program on Militarism and Disarmament at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. (1977-84). Professor Klare has written widely on U.S. defense policy, the arms trade, and world security affairs.)“Blood and Oil: The Dangers and
Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum” 2004. ISBN: 0141020032 (Book) (JA) “It is nearly impossible to chronicle all the ways petroleum contributes to the vibrancy of the American economy. Because rapid and reliable transportation is so vital to the functioning of virtually every industry and enterprise, an abundant supply of affordable oil has been a major spur of economic growth and expansion.”
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18) Interruption in oil supply will have adverse political and economic consequences. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “Fifth, a significant interruption in oil supply will have adverse political and economic consequences in the United States and in other importing countries. When such a disruption occurs, it upends all ongoing policy activity in a frantic effort to return to normal conditions. Inevitably, those efforts include matters of foreign policy, such as coordination with other countries to find measures that will mitigate the consequences of the supply disruption. Some of these responses may be preplanned, such as the coordinated release of strategic reserves, but other responses will be hurried, ineffectual, or even counterproductive.”
19) There is a relationship between oil dependence and the U.S. defense budget. “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency: Report of an Independent Task Force” (Book) Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Press. Chairs of the Task Force were: John Deutch (Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Undersecretary of Energy) and James R. Schlesinger (Former Defense and Energy Secretary). November 20, 2007. http://books.google.com/books? id=nM79JxLV3ZEC&dq=The+National+Security+Consequences+of+Oil+Dependency &source=gbs_navlinks (See attached brief for all names and credentials of people on the task force) (JA) “Sixth, some observers see a direct relationship between the dependence of the United States on oil, especially from the Persian Gulf, and the size of the U.S. defense budget. Such a relationship invites the inference that if it were not dependent on this oil, the United States and its allies would have no interest in the region, and hence it would be possible to achieve significant reductions in the U.S. military posture. In the extreme, this argument says that if the nation reduced its dependence, then the defense budget could be reduced as well.”
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20) Energy brings about our great national predicaments. By Jay Hakes (Hakes was head of the Energy Information Administration at the U.S. Department at the Department of Energy from 1993 to 2000, where he oversaw the collection and dissemination of America’s official energy data and analysis. He has given testimony before congressional committees on more than twenty-five occasions.) “A Declaration of Energy Independence” 2008. ISBN: 9780470267639. (Book) (JA) “The roots of many of our great national predicaments trace back to energy. American troops leave their families to fight in the Persian Gulf, not incidentally the region of the world with the greatest known reserves of oil. A falling U.S. dollar faces the risk of oilexporting countries switching their investments from dollars to euros. A United Nations panel of scientists reports the planet is warming, due mainly to the combustion of fossil fuels.”
21) There are harmful effects of an interruption in oil production. By Jay Hakes (Hakes was head of the Energy Information Administration at the U.S. Department at the Department of Energy from 1993 to 2000, where he oversaw the collection and dissemination of America’s official energy data and analysis. He has given testimony before congressional committees on more than twenty-five occasions.) “A Declaration of Energy Independence” 2008. ISBN: 9780470267639. (Book) (JA) “ For starters, the harmful effects of an interruption in the supply of petroleum (a word interchangeable with oil) are much greater. Petroleum products play many vital roles in moving people and things around. The Army and Air Force can conduct missions only when fueled by oil (The Navy makes extensive use of nuclear power) Trucks that carry goods to Wal-Mart and shoppers headed to their stores rely on oil. So do critical services ranging from the delivery of food to emergency medical care provided by speeding ambulances. People in the Northeast need heating oil to get through frigid winters. In short, the sudden absence of oil would shut down any modern economy and render its armed forces powerless.”
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22) Historical precedence: interruption of foreign oil supply does happen By Jay Hakes (Hakes was head of the Energy Information Administration at the U.S. Department at the Department of Energy from 1993 to 2000, where he oversaw the collection and dissemination of America’s official energy data and analysis. He has given testimony before congressional committees on more than twenty-five occasions.) “A Declaration of Energy Independence” 2008. ISBN: 9780470267639. (Book) (JA) “The risks of an interruption are not just hypothetical. A five-month Arab oil embargo in 1973-1974 crippled the American economy and led to long lines at service stations. In some states, half the stations ran out of fuel. Just five years later, the Iranian Revolution led to another massive loss of oil, the return of gasoline lines, and raging inflation. Then, in 1980, war between Iraq and Iran suddenly slashed world oil supplies by five million barrels of oil a day (8 percent). World oil supplies got clobbered again after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.”
4. Status Quo Advantage: Factors in the SQ that are weaking oil’s dominance in the U.S.
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23) Must end the dominance of oil use in transportation. Must end oil’s dominance of transportation fuels market through use of other technologies. “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “Cutting oil imports can help with some problems, such as the trade deficit. But many of the most important national security, environmental and economic problems created by oil cannot be solved by cutting imports alone. To solve these problems, we must end oil’s near-total dominance of the transportation fuels market. We must give drivers a choice between oil and other fuels. Today several technologies offer the promise of doing just that.”
24) Plug-In Hybrids can reduce oil dependence “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “To reduce oil dependence, nothing would do more good more quickly than making cars that could connect to the electric grid. The United States has a vast infrastructure for generating electric power. However, that infrastructure is essentially useless in trying to cut oil dependence, because modern cars can't connect to it. If we could build cars that ran on electricity and plugged into the grid, the potential for displacing oil would be enormous. Fortunately, we can. Several small companies are already doing this, with a first generation of “plug-in hybrid” engines designed to run both on gasoline and electricity from the grid. General Motors recently announced plans to produce light duty plug-ins.”
25) Hybrids could displace 1/3 of oil in light duty vehicles. “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007.
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http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “How much oil could plug-in hybrids displace how quickly? A lot – although the data available on U.S. driving habits only allows a rough estimate. According to the Department of Transportation, 40% of Americans travel 20 miles or less per day and 60% of Americans travel 30 miles or less each day.23 Table 1 below sets forth one possible scenario, in which plug-ins hybrids replace one-third of the oil in U.S. light duty vehicles by 2025. This assumes strong policies supporting early deployment of plug-ins and steady penetration in the vehicle fleet thereafter.”
26) Bio-fuels could replace a significant amount of oil. “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “Over the next several decades, bio-fuels have the potential to replace a significant fraction of the United States’ oil use. Estimates range from 25 to 100 billion gallons per year by 2025 (roughly 20%-70% of 2005 consumption). Ethanol imported from the Caribbean, Latin America or Brazil could add to these totals. In 2006, the U.S. industry produced roughly 5 billion gallons of ethanol – more than 3% of U.S. liquid fuels.26 Almost all ethanol in the U.S. is blended into gasoline. A small but growing number of U.S. gas stations are selling E85, a fuel made up of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. The U.S. ethanol industry is growing rapidly, with double digit growth rates and at least 73 plants under construction.” 27) Conventional Efficiency Technologies improve fuel efficiency. “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “Many existing technologies can improve fuel efficiency. Most important is the “conventional” hybrid engine. The fact that hybrid engines can now be considered “conventional” reflects the technology’s remarkable success in the past few years. The first hybrid engines were introduced into the U.S. market several years ago amidst some skepticism they would find a market. Since then consumers have regularly sought more hybrids than are available on the market, and the technology is rapidly moving into new models.”
5. Solvency: Energy Independence is Achievable 28) National Consensus on oil dependence The strong consensus about the gravity of the problem and new technologies provide an opportunity for transformational change.
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“Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “The United States is a divided nation. Deep disagreements dominate our political dialogue. Consensus eludes us on countless topics. Yet on oil dependence, an astonishing array of voices agree. National security hawks raise alarms about the vast sums of money sent each year to the Persian Gulf. Environmentalists warn about global warming. Farmers see new fortunes in the transition to ethanol. Consumers cry out when oil prices rise. Politicians as different as President George W. Bush, Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN), Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) and Democratic National Committee Chair Howard Dean all call for an end to the United States’ oil "addiction." In doing so, they echo the words of Presidents of both parties, who have been decrying our dependence on foreign oil for more than three decades.”
29) United States can end dependence on oil. With sustained commitment, we can end the United States’ debilitating dependence on oil. “Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “The consensus on this topic is not complete, of course. Disagreements and different emphases arise on some aspects of the problem. And, though more than 85% of Americans say oil dependence is a serious problem, a roughly equal percentage oppose any increase in the gasoline tax. Complications and contradictions will bedevil any leader who addresses this issue. Still, a confluence of factors – including a broad political consensus, game-changing technological advances and strong interest from private investors – create the conditions for transformational change. These conditions offer the prospect of a lasting legacy to the leaders who make oil dependence a priority. But it will take just that – making the issue a priority. Easy rhetoric and small initiatives will not be enough. With sustained commitment, we can end the United States’ debilitating dependence on oil.” 30) Energy independence can be achieved “Iran and Brazil Can Do It. So Can We.” By Gal Luft. (Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security and co-founder of the Set America Free Coalition, a bipartisan alliance of groups promoting U.S. energy independence. He holds degrees in international relations, international economics, Middle East studies and strategic studies and a doctorate in strategic studies
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from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS,) Johns Hopkins University)
Published by the Washington Post. July 6, 2008. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/07/03/AR2008070303250_2.html (JA)
“Energy independence does not mean that the United States must be entirely selfsufficient. It simply means reducing the role of oil in world politics -- turning it from a strategic commodity into merely another thing to sell. Is energy independence a pipe dream? Hardly. In the electricity sector, the mission has already been accomplished. Remember President Jimmy Carter in his cardigan during the oil crises of the 1970s, urging Americans to save electricity? It took us just one decade to wean the electricity sector from oil. Today, only 2 percent of U.S. electricity comes from oil, according to the Energy Department. Could we do something similar with transportation, where American cars and trucks still gulp oil-based fuel greedily? At least four very different countries -dictatorships and democracies alike -- are already making serious headway toward that goal. It's past time to pay attention to their example.” 31) Opportunity for transformational change. There is an opportunity for transformational change.
“Ending Oil Dependence” By David Sandalow. (David Sandalow is Energy and Environment Scholar at the Brookings Institution. He is writing a book on oil dependence.) Published by the Brookings Institute. January 22, 2007. http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf (JA) “Ending oil dependence doesn’t mean ending oil use. It means ending our near-total reliance on oil as a transportation fuel. It means giving drivers a choice between oil and other fuels. If most or all of the proposals above were implemented, the United States could end its debilitating dependence on oil in a generation. Under reasonable assumptions, plug-in hybrids could replace more than 45 billion gallons of gasoline per year by 2025. (See Table 1.) Bio-fuels could replace roughly 40 billion gallons of gasoline in the same time frame. (This would require production of roughly 60 billion gallons of ethanol, due to ethanol’s lower energy content.) Efficiency technologies could cut fuel use by a third. The result would be a transformed market for transportation fuels. Although estimates of federal budget costs depend on many specific decisions concerning program design, costs could run from several billion to approximately to $10 billion per year. Rough cost estimates are set out at Table 2. Oil dependence lies behind several of the most important problems facing the United States. The strong consensus about the gravity of the problem and new technologies provide an opportunity for transformational change.”
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