Energy Geopolitics By Economides
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Energy Geopolitics
Michael J. Economides
©2008
Petroleum Production Engineering • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century 9Oil almost $150, then far below $100… headlines rule … “crisis” 9OPEC has little excess capacity “behind the valve”, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq 9IEA (Nov. 2008) 9.1% decline in oil production
9China has gone berserk
9Saudi Arabia world regulator 9$60 to $200 in 12 to 18 months Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
1
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
GOM Headlines Rule …No Peak Oil
1977 Alaska 8.4 Billion Barrels
2007 GOM 22-45 Billion Barrels
2
Saudi Arabian “Twilight”
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
The Color Of Oil Russian
Spanish
Chinese
Korean
NOW IN 5 LANGUAGES
Available at Amazon.com or from Round Oak Publishing Company (1) 281-395-4783.
3
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP
Source: DOE/EIA, 2008, Skov, 2000, DOC/BEA 2001, National Academy of Engineering, 1990
4
Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources Total Energy
Other Energy
Wind & Solar
MBDOE
MBDOE
MBDOE
400
3.0
60
350
Growth Rate 1980-2003, %
Growth Rate 2003-2030, %
1.6
1.7
300
Wind & Solar
50
2.5
40
2.0
1.4
250
Biomass, MSW
1.7
Other
200
30 2.7
100
2.2 Gas
20
10 1.0
Oil
0 90
00
10
5.9
Nuclear
0.8
2.2
Hydro
2.1
0.5
1.5
0 80
Wind
1.0
2.2
50
1.5
1.2
11.1
150 1.5
1.5
Coal
20
30
80
90
00
10
20
Solar 9.5
0.0 30
80
90
00
10
20
30
US Energy Consumption 140.00
Quadrillion BT
120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00
Other Hydroelectric Heating and Nuclear Electric Power Coal Natural Gas Oil Transportation Oil Products
3.4
8.1 23 23
40.00
27
20.00 0.00 1950
2.8
13
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
5
National Transportation Energy Perspective 140
Quadrillion BTU
120 100 80
Other Conventional Hydroelectric Power Nuclear Power Coal Natural Gas Imported Oil Oil Transportation Oil Products
60 40
Imported Oil Biofuels
20 0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
2010
2020
6
The New Energy Economy Carbon content:
• • • • •
Wood (1800s) Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydrogen (envisioned)
High
Increasingly: • Clean
Medium
• Energy intensive
Low
• Technologically sophisticated
(Zero)
• Distributed
````````
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
7
Golfing for Hydrogen
Bovine Brain Power > Mad Car Disease?
8
The Ethanol Scam
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
9
There are no alternatives to hydrocarbon energy sources in the foreseeable future
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
10
Gwyneth Paltrow
y g r e En ert p x E Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
11
TIME, AUGUST 26, 2002
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
12
What Climate Change? • Three points: – Highly politicized…. What to do about it? Can anything be done? At what cost? – Confusion (at times deliberate) between “global warming” and man-made effects – Preposterous: “science all in”. My offer: $10,000 for ONE peer-reviewed paper showing causality between CO2 and increased temperature. None exists Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
13
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
14
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
15
Petroleum Production Engineering • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
16
Group Income Statement For the year ended 31 December 2005
$ million
2007 Total revenues
2006
2005
284,000 266,000 254,000
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
17
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
18
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
19
Price of Oil and ExxonMobil Stock
Energy Geopolitics The Axis of Energy Militants
•Iran •Venezuela •Russia under Putin •The quagmire that is Iraq •China
20
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
21
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Russia under Putin •Bright spot in oil is gone •Re-Sovietization •Corruption •Total control of press •Investment climate has cooled down •Production is bound to decline
22
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Gazprom’s New Imperium
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
23
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
24
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
25
Transparency International CPI, 2007 RANK 1
4
SCORE Denmark
Finland
Singapore
New Zealand
Sweden
9.4
9.3
6
Iceland
9.2
. . .
. . .
. . .
20
United States
7.2
…and the Energy Militants RANK
SCORE
131 143
179
Russia
Indonesia
147 162
2.5
Iran
Nigeria
2.2
Venezuela Myanmar
2.3
2.0 Somalia
1.4
26
Georgia War
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Can
Ch ina Keep the Lights On? Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
27
Will China Break Through?
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
28
China Oil Consumption • In the last decade China’s oil consumption increased by 3.5 million barrels per day, the largest in the world by far. • If China were to use the same per capita consumption, as the US, it would require 80 million barrels per day (more than the entire world use.) Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
China and Russia • Energy will be China’s choke point • Has become recently very assertive, if not belligerent. – Sudan, Nigeria – Canada – Venezuela
• China’s energy future passes through Russia…. Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
29
Russia and China
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Russia, China and Japan
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
30
Another view of oil prices
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
www.energytribune.com Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
31
Michael J. Economides
©2008
Petroleum Production Engineering • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century 9Oil almost $150, then far below $100… headlines rule … “crisis” 9OPEC has little excess capacity “behind the valve”, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq 9IEA (Nov. 2008) 9.1% decline in oil production
9China has gone berserk
9Saudi Arabia world regulator 9$60 to $200 in 12 to 18 months Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
1
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
GOM Headlines Rule …No Peak Oil
1977 Alaska 8.4 Billion Barrels
2007 GOM 22-45 Billion Barrels
2
Saudi Arabian “Twilight”
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
The Color Of Oil Russian
Spanish
Chinese
Korean
NOW IN 5 LANGUAGES
Available at Amazon.com or from Round Oak Publishing Company (1) 281-395-4783.
3
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP
Source: DOE/EIA, 2008, Skov, 2000, DOC/BEA 2001, National Academy of Engineering, 1990
4
Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources Total Energy
Other Energy
Wind & Solar
MBDOE
MBDOE
MBDOE
400
3.0
60
350
Growth Rate 1980-2003, %
Growth Rate 2003-2030, %
1.6
1.7
300
Wind & Solar
50
2.5
40
2.0
1.4
250
Biomass, MSW
1.7
Other
200
30 2.7
100
2.2 Gas
20
10 1.0
Oil
0 90
00
10
5.9
Nuclear
0.8
2.2
Hydro
2.1
0.5
1.5
0 80
Wind
1.0
2.2
50
1.5
1.2
11.1
150 1.5
1.5
Coal
20
30
80
90
00
10
20
Solar 9.5
0.0 30
80
90
00
10
20
30
US Energy Consumption 140.00
Quadrillion BT
120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00
Other Hydroelectric Heating and Nuclear Electric Power Coal Natural Gas Oil Transportation Oil Products
3.4
8.1 23 23
40.00
27
20.00 0.00 1950
2.8
13
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
5
National Transportation Energy Perspective 140
Quadrillion BTU
120 100 80
Other Conventional Hydroelectric Power Nuclear Power Coal Natural Gas Imported Oil Oil Transportation Oil Products
60 40
Imported Oil Biofuels
20 0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
2010
2020
6
The New Energy Economy Carbon content:
• • • • •
Wood (1800s) Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydrogen (envisioned)
High
Increasingly: • Clean
Medium
• Energy intensive
Low
• Technologically sophisticated
(Zero)
• Distributed
````````
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
7
Golfing for Hydrogen
Bovine Brain Power > Mad Car Disease?
8
The Ethanol Scam
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
9
There are no alternatives to hydrocarbon energy sources in the foreseeable future
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
10
Gwyneth Paltrow
y g r e En ert p x E Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
11
TIME, AUGUST 26, 2002
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
12
What Climate Change? • Three points: – Highly politicized…. What to do about it? Can anything be done? At what cost? – Confusion (at times deliberate) between “global warming” and man-made effects – Preposterous: “science all in”. My offer: $10,000 for ONE peer-reviewed paper showing causality between CO2 and increased temperature. None exists Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
13
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
14
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
15
Petroleum Production Engineering • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
16
Group Income Statement For the year ended 31 December 2005
$ million
2007 Total revenues
2006
2005
284,000 266,000 254,000
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
17
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
18
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
19
Price of Oil and ExxonMobil Stock
Energy Geopolitics The Axis of Energy Militants
•Iran •Venezuela •Russia under Putin •The quagmire that is Iraq •China
20
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
21
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Russia under Putin •Bright spot in oil is gone •Re-Sovietization •Corruption •Total control of press •Investment climate has cooled down •Production is bound to decline
22
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Gazprom’s New Imperium
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
23
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
24
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
25
Transparency International CPI, 2007 RANK 1
4
SCORE Denmark
Finland
Singapore
New Zealand
Sweden
9.4
9.3
6
Iceland
9.2
. . .
. . .
. . .
20
United States
7.2
…and the Energy Militants RANK
SCORE
131 143
179
Russia
Indonesia
147 162
2.5
Iran
Nigeria
2.2
Venezuela Myanmar
2.3
2.0 Somalia
1.4
26
Georgia War
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Can
Ch ina Keep the Lights On? Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
27
Will China Break Through?
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
28
China Oil Consumption • In the last decade China’s oil consumption increased by 3.5 million barrels per day, the largest in the world by far. • If China were to use the same per capita consumption, as the US, it would require 80 million barrels per day (more than the entire world use.) Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
China and Russia • Energy will be China’s choke point • Has become recently very assertive, if not belligerent. – Sudan, Nigeria – Canada – Venezuela
• China’s energy future passes through Russia…. Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
29
Russia and China
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Russia, China and Japan
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
30
Another view of oil prices
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
www.energytribune.com Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
31
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