El.pais.english.edition.september.14

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EL PERIÓDICO GLOBAL EN ESPAÑOL

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2009

ENGLISH EDITION WITH THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE

EC sees Spain’s 2020 Unease grows in Socialist Party over handling of crisis deficit below average Zapatero criticized by colleagues for failing to seek advice FERNANDO GAREA, Madrid The contradictory messages being sent out by the government during its handling of the worst recession in living memory, and fears over the damage that planned tax rises could have are creating discomfort, confusion and despondency within the ruling Socialist Party, according to sources within the group. “[Prime Minister] Zapatero is taking more and more decisions from a purely personal standpoint,” a party source said. “Before he used to consult on some issues, but now hardly any.” According to the same source, the prime minister is opting for teams based on their attitude rather than their experience. “He’s going for tactics rather than strategy,” he said, pointing to the choice of young ministers over more experienced ones, something that has seen many ex-ministers leave politics altogether. According to party sources, Zapatero is running his party with an iron fist, with dissidence and debate conspicuous only by their absence. As nearly all of those consulted admit, no one has ever wielded so much power within the Socialist Party as Zapatero does. “He deals with ideological issues very well,” said one deputy. “His social-democratic discourse is impeccable, but he leaves no room for any criticism or discrepancies.” While no one in the party doubts that taxes need to go up to

Does the government have a plan? Economy

Pages 4 & 5

cover the social costs created by the crisis, the long wait for an announcement as to exactly what form the announced rises will take has been strongly criticized. However, the Socialist leadership is quick to point out that the current uncertainty is inevitable,

given that the prime minister’s party does not count on a congressional majority, meaning that he is constantly having to reach agreements with minority groupings in order to arrive at a costcutting budget plan that will be approved by Congress.

The police internal affairs department interviewed a former officer over the weekend who is suspected of having helped steal around 100 kilos of cocaine and heroin from an evidence room in Seville. According to police sources, the officer, identified by the initials L. S. M., raised suspicions after applying for a sabbatical from his job within the drugs

The European Commission has warned that the EU’s ballooning public deficit will soon be “unsustainable” if countries do not exercise caution in spending their way out of the crisis. But Brussels predicts that Spain’s future budget shortfall will not be larger than the euro-zone average. The EC predicts that if no mea-

sures are taken Ireland’s public deficit will reach 200 percent of its GDP by 2020, with the United Kingdom following closely behind with 180 percent. The prognosis for Spain is still alarmingly high, at 115 percent of GDP, although below the eurozone average of 120 percent. Brussels will seek to limit public spending across Europe to activities that increase growth.

New mountain, same victor: Cunego takes Vuelta stage 14 Damiano Cunego won a second mountain stage of the Vuelta a España on Sunday, a wet stage 14 from Granada to the Alto Sierra de la Pandera. The Italian had previously raced to

the Aitana peak when the race passed through Valencia. Spain’s Alejandro Valverde rallied to finish in fifth place, three minutes 22 seconds behind the Italian on the day, to keep the gold-

Police arrest three for theft of 100 kilos of drugs from evidence room EL PAÍS, Seville

EL PAÍS, Madrid

and organized-crime squad. He is currently running a company dedicated to the sale and purchase of recreational boats. A couple, identified as M. A. N. and M. V. S. G., have also been arrested over the theft, which was discovered on June 5, 2008, when police realized that the drugs had been substituted for harmless white powders. The couple were arrested in their summer residence, which had been bought by the pair in

June 2008 for ¤240,000. “Both individuals are unemployed, with the man’s only activity being the sale and purchase of cars outside of the usual channels,” the police said. The value of the 100 kilos of drugs that were taken from the police station is estimated at more than ¤4.5 million. But once the narcotics had been adulterated and sold on the street, that figure could be as much as ¤10 million.

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en leader’s jersey. “Today [Valverde] has showed that he is the true leader here,” Cunego said. Dutch rider Robert Gesink is in second place overall at 31 seconds back.

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EL PAÍS, Monday, September 14, 2009

OPINION AND EDITORIAL

The acid test

EL ROTO

Opel buyout will reveal Brussels’ ability to limit German state aid for car group THE SALE of car group Opel, the European division of General Motors (GM), to the Austrian-Canadian parts-maker Magna will test the true extent to which the European Union can impose legislation on the transparency and neutrality of state aid on the German government. Chancellor Angela Merkel has made it clear that she wants the sale to go ahead, which would mean limiting closures to the country’s car industry. Magna’s restructuring plans would see Opel shed around 10,000 jobs throughout Europe, of which only 3,000 would be in Germany itself, where Opel employs 20,000 people. Worst hit would be Belgium, France and the United Kingdom. Opel plans to close its plant in Belgium altogether, while in Spain, the Figueruelas plant in Zaragoza would lose 1,700 jobs out of a total of 7,500. In the United Kingdom, around 2,000 jobs are expected to be cut from a total of 5,500. The respective governments of the three countries have accused Merkel of pressuring GM to limit the impact of job losses on Germany. The question to be addressed is whether the German government has linked a planned ¤1.5-billion loan to Opel, along with further state aid — the company says it has a shortfall of ¤4.5 billion — to maintaining German jobs. The accusations of German interference have been given credibility by the active participation in the negotiations with Opel not only of Merkel herself, but of the German government’s foreign minister, FrankWalter Steinmeier. Merkel faces a general election at the end of September, and her Christian Democrat-led government

EDICIONES EL PAÍS, SOCIEDAD LIMITADA

Letters to the Editor Letters submitted to this section should not exceed 20 typed lines. It is imperative that each one is signed and is complete with an address, telephone number and DNI or passport number of the author. EL PAÍS reserves the right to publish such pieces, either in shortened version or as an extract when it is considered opportune. Unless otherwise stated, original letters will not be returned, nor will information be made available about them by mail or by phone. Email: [email protected]

obviously wants to avoid further job losses in the run-up to the polls. The Opel buyout has boosted her popularity. The European Commission announced on Friday that it will be watching the sale of Opel to prevent EU governments from using state aid to prevent plant closures in key industries. Its position is to be welcomed, but we should also expect it to fail in its bid. In the first place, because it is relatively easy for governments to hide the obligations and agreements they impose on companies in return for receiving state aid. Secondly, because Germany’s weight as Europe’s leading economy gives it a clout that Belgium and Spain lack, even acting together. Merkel has managed to push through the sale of Opel to Magna. The best thing the Spanish government could do now is to negotiate with the new owners to minimize the job losses planned at Figueruelas. The ability of governments to use state aid to condition the sale of key enterprises, and thus avoid multinational companies from relocating to Eastern Europe, Asia or Latin America, is not the only aspect of the Opel affair that stands out. Russia’s Sberbank, whose chairman is the former Russian economy minister, German Gref, will also take a stake in the carmaker. Neither GM nor the German government seems concerned that a bank directly controlled by Vladimir Putin will now have a say in the running of the company. It would seem that shortterm electoral concerns and a lack of capital have guided the German government in its decision, rather than a strategy based on EU legislation.

PRESIDENT

EDITOR

Ignacio Polanco

Javier Moreno

CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

DEPUTY EDITORS

Juan Luis Cebrián

Vicente Jiménez & Lluís Bassets

CHIEF OPERATING OFFICERS

EDITOR ENGLISH EDITION

Jesús Ceberio & José Ángel García Olea

Guy Hedgecoe

Rebels without a cause A bunch of rich kids in the most prosperous suburb in Spain (Pozuelo, Madrid) decide to attack the police in violent street battles. Why? To defend some basic human rights issue? To demonstrate against the inherent unfairness of the Capitalist system? To protest against the unregulated air pollution in Madrid that will affect them and their children in years to come? To raise the issues of Education, Health and Welfare benefits for the under-privileged in a time of economic crisis? No! None

of the above! These heroes have decided to fight the good fight against the law that prohibits outdoor, allnight, boozing parties which prevent the neighbors from sleeping and leave behind a mountain of rubbish for someone else to clean up. Let’s hope these brainless rich babies grow up soon and find some adult issues to devote themselves to that won’t interfere with the basic rights of others. Counting prison cell bars, for example.— Tom Stephens, Madrid.

“To another crisis like this one!”

Good news MOISÉS NAÍM It’s been a good summer for the world. True, atrocities in Congo and Darfur continue to be committed, the war in Afghanistan has intensified and unemployment in Europe and the United States continues to rise. But compared to what we thought we were facing just a few months ago, things could be a lot worse. The economic crisis was going to last a decade; there would be a global recession akin to that of the 1930s; the financial system was beyond repair; and the emerging economies of China, Brazil, and India would be dragged down with the West. But it didn’t happen. Over the summer, the economies of the United States and Europe’s bigger members began to register growth again. And the impact on China, India, Brazil, Poland, Australia, Canada, and many other countries was less severe than had been predicted. What’s more, other less-developed countries such as Chile, Peru, Ghana, Indonesia and Turkey, were able to steer their way through the emergency better than they had done during previous crises in the 1980s and 1990s. The global economy remains weak, and some say it may suffer a relapse. For millions of unemployed men and women, to talk of recovery is at best abstract, at worst a cruel joke. Employment is always the last indicator to show recovery. In Spain, joblessness affects a fifth of the population. Other fears, such as governments closing their borders to imports to protect jobs, or the expulsion of migrant workers, have proved unfounded as well. And there was more good news of a different kind in the summer. Firstly from Iran. The regime of the ayatollahs is less solid and monolithic than was previously thought. Not even the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has managed to avoid being sucked into the power struggles taking place

among the different and competing factions within the regime. The bad news is of course that the faction controlled by Khamenei and Mahmoud Ahmadineyad is still in control, and is taking advantage of its position to silence the opposition with imprisonment, torture, and even death. Even those who not long ago were part of the political and religious elite have not escaped punishment for their criticism. But we should not play down the fact that this is the first time since it came to power in 1979 that the current Iranian regime has shown such significant signs of internal dissent. We must also remember that the most important factor in the process of breakup, and eventual collapse of such totalitarian regimes is factionalism, and the inevitable fight between rival groups at the top of the power structure. We may well have to wait some time for the corrupt and inefficient cadre that currently leads the country to be replaced by one that puts the interests of Iranians before its own personal enrichment, but from what we have seen so far this summer perhaps we can now say that the end of this terrible government is nearer than we might previously have dared hoped. And there was more good news. US troops finally began to pull out of Iraq, something that many pundits said might never happen. Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, which had ruled the country since 1955, finally lost power in the elections at the end of August — again, an event many said would never happen. Sadly, the summer did not bring only good news. But then we know only too well the long list of bad news, and argue over it every day. What is really worth pointing out is that in relative terms, in 2009, the world had a good summer, and that in itself is news. Moisés Naím is an economist and editor-inchief of Foreign Policy magazine.

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EL PAÍS, Monday, September 14, 2009

NEWS Spain and Italy united despite Berlusconi controversy M. MORA, Rome

A poster in the Barcelona Metro informs people of the best ways to prevent the spread of swine flu. / marcel·lí sàenz

The reality of H1N1 virus: neither a mass killer nor a phantom menace Drawing line between public information and hysteria proves difficult JAIME PRATS Last week, the Spanish federation of medical associations openly denounced “the epidemic of fear” surrounding the H1N1 virus, more popularly known as swine flu. “An undue alarm is being created around swine flu,” said a spokesperson, who spoke about “a ghostly disease” and criticized information campaigns that focus on “worst-case scenarios.” But this is not the majority opinion among the health professionals consulted by this newspaper. To begin with, swine flu is not a ghostly disease, but a very real one that has spread across the planet. José María Martín Moreno, professor of preventive medicine and public health at Valencia University, argues that information must be shared, comparing it with the informed consent that patients must grant ahead of a surgical procedure. “This prevents a paternalist medicine with a passive role for the patient and an active, omnipotent role for the doctor. In the same way, it is essential to respect society’s right to know.” But the opinion of the medical associations coincides with a sector of society that looks back at past highly publicized pandemics such as avian flu and concludes that it was not so bad then and it will not be so bad now. “There is an abuse of scary messages presenting worst-case scenarios,” says the president of the Organización Médica Colegial, Juan José Rodríguez

Sendín. “We are facing a flu virus, which is a familiar thing that people can overcome without the need for vaccines, as countries in the southern hemisphere have proven. So why all this exaggeration?” “With all due respect for my colleague, since last April this virus has shown an unusual capacity for progression,” responds Juan José Badiola, president of the veterinary surgeons. “This is an old disease, the flu, but in a way it is also a new one, because this particular virus originated in animals.” And the virus has circulated very quickly among us, as the most recent data for Spain show. The group of doctors in charge of monitoring the pathogen’s progress among patients and notifying authorities on a

weekly basis reported a 25-percent increase in circulation of the disease last Friday compared with the previous week. This information illustrates just how much the scenario has changed since last year. This

“We are facing a flu virus — a familiar threat — so why all this exaggeration?” time last year, the infection rate was much lower than it is right now, and it did not reach the same figure until November. On the other hand, 95 percent of current infections correspond to the new variety of virus, rep-

Knowledge test Although she does not believe there is an epidemic of fear, Carolina Moreno, professor of language theory and science at Valencia University, says there is no official sociological survey to shed light on citizens’ response to the swine flu crisis. But earlier attempts at gauging social reaction to similar health crises have yielded surprising results. In 2007, for instance, Ramón Camaño, a professor of nursing at the same university conducted a study about reactions to avian flu based

on a similar one that had been conducted in Canada. Three hundred students of nursing, medicine, law, economics, journalism and audiovisual communications took the survey, and 71.7 percent failed the questions testing knowledge about the flu. The study also showed that the media were not causing anxiety, and that the internet was their main source of information, followed by television, radio and the press. Would the same results occur if a survey were conducted now? “I think so,” says Moreno.

resenting 23,000 new infections a week. This is significant considering they took place during the summer, a bad season for the regular flu virus. It is also a fact that the H1N1 virus has reached most of the planet. Cases have been reported in more than 180 countries of the 193 that belong to the World Health Organization (WHO). That is why, last June, the WHO declared a pandemic and raised the alert level to 6, the highest number. “It is a technical question that has to do with response protocols,” explains Badiola. “It is not a reflection on the gravity of the virus or lack thereof, but an indication of its geographical extension.” The spread of the virus is one thing, but the danger it poses is another. And, for now, the message being conveyed by all health authorities, whether national or international, is that H1N1 has a great capacity for transmission but that its virulence is limited. It certainly has little to do with its cousin, the H5N1 or avian flu virus, which killed up to half of all infected people even though its capacity for infecting humans was limited. In Spain, for instance, H1N1 is less lethal than seasonal flu, with figures hovering around 0.02 percent of all infected individuals. According to Martín Moreno, who is also an adviser to the WHO, these indicators prove that it is just as wrong to create undue alarm by talking about a dangerous flu pandemic as it is to suggest that this is a ghost disease fueled by agents with a hidden agenda.

The governments of Madrid and Rome made their mutual respect for one another clear on Saturday, despite a controversial press conference held in Sardinia the day before, in which Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi made a series of sexist remarks in the presence of his Spanish counterpart, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. The pair spoke on the phone on Saturday, according to an official press release from the Italian government, and enjoyed a “cordial conversation, in which the deep friendship between Spain and Italy and its two leaders was consolidated.” In a separate statement, Spain’s secretary of state for the European Union, Diego López Garrido, sought to downplay perceived criticism of Zapatero’s reaction to Berlusconi’s statements, when the Spanish leader said on Friday that he had kept silent during the press conference out of “institutional courtesy.” At the Italian-Spanish summit on Friday, Berlusconi made a series of sexist comments in an effort to explain away a statement he made in 2008, when he described the Socialist government of Zapatero as “too pink,” given its large number of female ministers. “How could you think that I could say something negative about women in the native country of Casanova and playboys?” he asked the assembled press. Quizzed about his alleged relationships with prostitutes and aspiring TV presenters, Berlusconi went on to say that he had indeed invited young women to his house, but that they were friends of his and had not been paid any money. “They were beautiful women, and it is always pleasant to have dinner with people that are not far removed from the esthetic,” he said, after claiming that he had never paid for sex, given that his biggest pleasure in life is “winning over women.”

Mansion visit The statements were made despite the obvious discomfort of Zapatero, who remained silent throughout the exchanges, apart from when Berlusconi apologized to him for having monopolized the question-and-answer session. “It’s interesting,” was Zapatero’s only reply. It later emerged that Zapatero had briefly visited Berlusconi’s luxury mansion, Villa Certosa, on Thursday, the location featured in several photos that were published in EL PAÍS in June, which revealed several guests, both male and female, in the nude in the property’s grounds.

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EL PAÍS, Monday, September 14, 2009

FEATURES

Economy

Does the government have a crisis plan? Critics claim that tax hikes and other measures are being improvised on the spot RAMÓN MUÑOZ / LUIS DONCEL

I

s raising taxes a left-wing practice? Four years ago, Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was convinced of how progressive it was to lower them. “We want citizens to pay less tax, have good public healthcare and consume less alcohol and tobacco. I think that’s what it means to be a leftist in the 20th century,” he told the Socialists’ National Committee on September 3, 2005. At that meeting, Zapatero boasted of a Spain that was growing three times as fast as the EU average and creating 900,000 jobs in a single year, with the healthiest public accounts in its history. Now, the tables have turned and no one applauds or feels responsible for an economy that is shrinking at a rate of 4.2 percent and has seen 1.3 million jobs disappear in the past year. The state is spending twice as much as it is taking in, generating a huge black hole of ¤50 billion that it can only try to fill one way: taxes. The government has adapted its ideological discourse to this crisis scenario. Now, raising taxes is “reasonable and solidarityminded.” This is not the only U-turn. Measures that were presented as evidence of the administration’s determination to steer the ship back in the right direction have had to be modified along the way. The problem is, the circumstances seem to change in a matter of days or even hours, as with the ¤420 that the government promised the long-term unemployed. On August 13, the Cabinet passed by decree law an aid for jobless individuals whose compensation had run out on or after August 1, as long as the unemployment rate stayed above 17 percent. Protests broke out at unemployment offices when people learned that those who had been out of a job for longer were not eligible; a week later, the prime minister said he would modify the decree. Employment Minister Celestino Corbacho said that he had found out about the volteface while on vacation in Tarragona. At the meeting with the labor unions on August 1, Corbacho proposed extending the period to June 1, because “public money is not elastic.” Hours later, not only did he agree to roll back the date to January 1, but he also eliminated the condition that unemployment must stay above 17 percent in order for the aid, renewable every six months, to be extended. The price? Another ¤100 million a month. This is not the first time that the government has got its fingers burned by a new measure. On May 12, Zapatero announced a direct aid of ¤2,000 for the purchase of each new vehicle, to enter into effect on June 1. As was to be expected, the next day car dealerships were empty and not a single car was sold. The government had to make the aid effective immediately and rush to get

Public works in Madrid’s Serrano street financed by the “Plan E,” designed to help reactivate Spain’s ailing economy. / samuel sánchez

the regions to foot part of the bill. One thing that the government has remained consistent about is the optimism with which the prime minister has infected his entire Cabinet. When Spain was already in recession, he denied there was a crisis. Ten days ago, it became known that 85,000 more people joined the dole line in August, in the same month that 142,000 people stopped paying social security;

The economy is shrinking and 1.3 million jobs have been lost in a year Most economists agree that the crisis is going to be longer in this country that the public deficit has hit ¤50 billion; and that the Spanish GDP shrunk more than anywhere else in the euro zone in the second quarter. To make things worse, the OECD, despite improving its forecast for wealthy nations, warned that Spain was going to have a harder time recovering from the crisis than other countries due to the burst of its real estate bubble combined with rampant unemployment. Hours later, Economy Minister Elena Salgado cited an upturn in consumer confidence in an index compiled by the Instituto de Crédito Oficial to argue that “economic improvement is not government rhetoric, but a general perception that is starting to spread throughout society.”

Yet almost every international organization and most economists agree that the crisis is going to last longer in this country than elsewhere. In May, the European Commission predicted 10 consecutive quarters of recession in Spain, and said that its economy would be the last in Europe to start growing again. And this recovery will be weak. The IMF doesn’t think GDP will grow by more than two percent in Spain until at least 2015, according to its latest forecasts. “The confusion created by the government generates distrust, which is the last thing we need. The government has been seized by individuals who only think about the next day’s headlines. […] They can’t be offering money all the time, because there isn’t any. Clearly we must keep the people most affected by the crisis from falling into poverty, but I’d like someone to explain to me why [Banco Santander president Emilio] Botín’s daughter would want ¤2,500 if she gets pregnant,” says Joaquín Leguina, former Socialist premier of the Madrid region, in reference to the controversial baby bond. “I’ve heard Zapatero say that lowering taxes is leftist. And now raising them… what’s that? Unless being a leftist means you have to agree with everything that Zapatero and his colleagues come up with,” adds Leguina. When it comes to taxes, there is the same sensation of provisionality. Zapatero himself has, once again, shown his flair for being cryptic by announcing a “limited and temporary” tax hike. Limited to what? For how long? No one, not even the government, seems to know. Its tax policy works like this: a member of the government or a party leader

puts out some theory in the press, and if it is rejected by the majority, it simply denies that the measure will be adopted. There are various spokespeople and they all contradict one another. Leire Pajín, the Socialist Party secretary, said on August 8 that “the government’s tax policy lowers, not raises, taxes.” Public Works Minister José Blanco “was making a personal reflec-

Even the government seems to realize that raising taxes isn’t sufficient “The current income tax system in Spain” is very unfair. High earners pay enough” tion” on August 20 about increasing income tax for high-income earners. The economy minister, Elena Salgado, told Congress on August 26 that all tax figures would be revised. Days later, Zapatero said that earned income would not be touched and indicated that taxes on investment income would be raised, but without specifying how. By a process of elimination, then, we know that corporate tax won’t go up, but we don’t know, for example, what will happen to VAT, which income taxes will be modified and to what extent the ¤400 tax deduction will be eliminated — a modification that, despite the official rhetoric, affects earned income. In this deliberately ideolo-

gized debate between right and left and rich and poor, the latest theory wielded by the government to justify tax hikes is that they will only affect the wealthy, who should make an effort to help those hardest hit by the crisis — i.e., the unemployed. But the government seems to be unsure not only about its tax plan, but also how it defines wealthy. In May, Zapatero drew the line at ¤20,000 a year; those who make more than that would not be eligible for tax breaks on their first house purchase. In August, Blanco considered those who earn over ¤50,000 a year as wealthy. Unfortunately, ideology doesn’t fill the public coffers. And many think that some of the measures taken are more propagandist than effective. Even the government seems to realize that raising taxes isn’t enough, and is preparing huge spending cuts. What’s more, some economists think that the government’s claim that its tax reform would be based on an equal distribution of tax increases simply doesn’t hold water. They see middle incomes as the probable target of these hikes if direct taxes are modified rather than indirect ones, such as VAT. “In the short term, we’ve got to be optimistic. Tax revenue must be increased in a more or less fair way, by raising VAT and other indirect taxes, without touching corporate tax. The current income tax system is very unfair. High earners who report their income already pay enough: the wealthiest 10 percent pay 50 percent of the total. We can’t ask those who are already making a huge effort to do even more,” says Ignacio Zubiri, professor of public finance at the Basque

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EL PAÍS, Monday, September 14, 2009

Economy

FEATURES

The Spanish economy in figures QUARTERLY GDP (Year-on-year change in %) Spain Euro zone France 4.0 3.8 3.7 4 3.6 3.4 3.4

Italy

ANNUAL INFLATION RATE (in %) Spain Euro zone

Germany

France

Italy

Germany

5 4.6

3 4

1.9

2

3.6

1.6 0.9

1

3

0

2.4 2

–0.9

-1

1.5

-2

–3.1

1 0.8

-3 –3.7 -4

–4.5

–0.1

0.7

0 –0.1

–0.2

-5 -6

–5.3

–7.1

-7 III

IV 2006

I

II

III 2007

IV

I

II

III

IV

2008

–0.8 –0.9

-1

–6.5

II 2009

–1.0

–0.7 -2

I

–0.2

–1.4

–0.8 *

* Advance indicator Sep.

Oct. Nov. 2008

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May. 2009

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

EL PAÍS

Source: Eurostat.

Country University. “Low-income earners have been exempted and high-income earners have been given ways to avoid paying. It’s the middle incomes that bear the burden. At least everyone pays VAT, even evaders,” he adds. There is another hole in the government’s argument that the rich will bear the burden of higher taxes: they are the party that has eliminated the wealth tax, going against the criteria of their left-wing allies. These allies say that if what the Socialist government wants is for the country’s wealthiest to finance its economic recovery, it would be simple to find them. All they would have to do is look at SICAVs, open-ended investment companies that the wealthy use to manage their fortunes. SICAVs pay one percent corporate tax (18 percent when their members withdraw their earnings), versus

“The confusion that the government is creating generates distrust” Many seem to think that the government is just winging its economic policy the general rate of 30 percent that almost all companies pay. The excuse for this preferential treatment is that they are investment funds (which are exempt, due to capital gains taxes) that must meet a series of minimum requirements, such as having more than 100 members. In practice, they have become tax shelters, as most of these members are fictitious and SICAVs are really set up ex profeso to manage private fortunes. Despite this, Elena Salgado suggested last week that the tax system for SICAVs would not be changed, arguing that this would lead to a flight of capital. The government’s proposed tax reform is, in fact, a step backward. In 2007, it announced that

it was going to apply a flat rate of 18 percent for investment income. In practice, this means that if someone earns more than ¤50,000 on the stock market, they pay much less tax than if they earned that same amount working — though it also benefits the pensioner who gets extra income from a savings account and small-time investors who collect dividends. Now it is targeting those same incomes. During the electoral campaign, Zapatero promised that the ¤400 across-the-board tax deduction that helped get him into office would remain in place for the entire term. Now everything seems to suggest that its days are numbered, even though it directly affects earned income, which the government has promised not to touch. Many seem to think that the government is just winging it. “They adopt tax measures without any structure, as if they were testing the waters. They lowered taxes at a time of prosperity, but apply disjointed measures rather than following any tax model: one day they suppressed the wealth tax, another day they handed out ¤400. This did not reflect any reasonable notion of equity; they were just stopgap solutions for short-term reasons,” says Zubiri. The government says that recovery is around the corner, but the analysts at Variant Perception think otherwise. In a report entitled Spain: a Hole in Europe’s Balance Sheet, the research house paints a very bleak picture for the future of the nation’s economy. “Assuming that the worst has passed in Spain does not pass the common-sense test. We believe that Spanish politicians and international investors have grossly misjudged Spain, but events will force them to change their mind. In retrospect, Spain will be viewed much like a subprime market, where all the banking results looked good, until they didn’t. This is typical of bubbles, and Spain will be no different.” The report has spread like wildfire over the internet, and its popularity may be due to its apocalyptic tone. Hopefully that’s all it is… a catastrophic tale of political fiction.

Policies blowing in the wind: Zapatero’s sustainable U-turn says Gonzalo Sáenz de Miera, a professor of economics at Antonio de Nebrija University. November 2007. The second-inThe government defends the command of the Socialist Party, law: “It’s true that it has come José Blanco, rules out the possinow and not during the first bility of a one-cent tax on every term, but the language of a liter of gasoline: “Climate change in model, of a commitchange can’t be fought with ment to innovation, education new taxes,” was the phrase that and renewable energies has buried the draft of the Socialbeen there from the start. ists’ electoral program for the Whether it’s been done more or environment. Now in 2009, a less successfully is a different June 12 press release from matter,” says one of Prime Minister Zapatethe champions of the ro’s Moncloa resiproject. Public investdence: “The Cabinet ment in renewable has [...] passed a tax inenergies grew in crease on hydrocarSpain in the first Zapbons of ¤0.29 per liter atero administration of diesel and unleaded to the point that this automotive fuel.” past August — a bad In between, there month due to the was no change of govlack of rain and wind ernment. What hap— they generated 22 pened? The Zapatero percent of all electricadministration claims ity consumed. Acto have embraced the cording to green enidea of the Global ergy producers, howGreen New Deal proever, this commitposed this past March ment was broken a by the United Nations, year ago, when a regcalling for massive ulation from the Inpublic subsidies for redustry Ministry newable energies as a clipped the wings of way to survive the crisolar photovoltaic ensis and fight global ergy. In May, a new warming. regulation estabTwo months after lished caps to control the report came out, the growth of wind Zapatero outlined the energy. pillars of the new SusAnother problem tainable Economy with this law is that Law during the Statebillions of euros of-the-Nation debate. spent on fighting the The law — which is Zapatero (right) with ex-Danish PM Rasmussen. / efe crisis have not gone still in diapers four months after that announce- and the overdevelopment of the in this direction. As Joaquín Niement — would include ¤20 bil- coast went hand in hand with to, one of the most active individuals in the industry, points lion in funding (half from the GDP. “The economic growth regis- out: “Of all the OECD member private sector) for subsidies to “convert the construction indus- tered in Spain has undoubtedly countries, Spain is among those try into a building renovation brought prosperity for its citi- that have spent the least on the industry,” to promote renew- zens and has allowed them to green economy in its stimulus able energies, R&D projects and improve their standard of liv- packages.” Compared with Ger“everything that avoids bubbles ing. Yet from the beginning its many, which has devoted one like the real estate one,” accord- unsustainability, especially in percent of its GDP to stimulus ing to one source close to the environmental terms, was packages related to the environproject. Another fund of ¤5 bil- clear. Sustainability has not ment, Spain has only earlion will replace the Local Em- been a priority in this country,” marked 0.13 percent.

RAFAEL MÉNDEZ

ployment Plan, but will force city halls to invest in renewables or energy-efficient building renovations. Experts criticize the fact that this change has come after five years of a Socialist government that took credit for the triumphs of a real estate bubble inherited from the previous administration; an economic growth where greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption

6

EL PAÍS, Monday, September 14, 2009

BUSINESS to be in full control of our faculties is by living a healthy, balanced life. “We live in our heads. Consciousness is the space that we create between what actually happens to us and the way that we perceive it and respond to it,” he says. “So the less energy we have, the less we are aware of what is going on, and the less we are able to react; but the more energy we produce and accumulate, then the more we are able to deal with situations. We have to identify the things that reduce our energy levels and those that boost them; this is an exercise that obliges us to be more aware of what are the real causes for the way we feel, and what the effects of this are.” Esther Sánchez Torres, pro-

Spain is one of the EU countries with the worst productivity levels Employees at Google España enjoy some downtime by playing a game of table football. / gorka lejarcegi

Spanish timetable detrimental to worker happiness, study reveals Experts recommend increased rest periods in order to maximize productivity BORJA VILASECA Thanks to the siesta and a calendar littered with religious holidays, Spain enjoys a reputation abroad as a country where work takes second place to leisure. But as surveys over the last decade have shown, the reality for most office workers is very different: the country’s working practices are actually detrimental to what is considered a healthy work-life balance. Spaniards work an average total of 1,798 hours a year, which is more than most of their European neighbors who, on average, work only 1,644 hours per year.

According to Ignacio Buqueras, author of Tiempo al Tiempo (or Time to Time), a study on labor conciliation and rationalization of hours, “we are slaves to time” but we also waste it. Buqueras argues that the business sector believes that rationalizing hours means cutting down the workday. However, Buqueras’ idea is to make more efficient use of time, “as working is not the same thing as being at work.” In fact, with the exception of Greece and Portugal, Spain is currently one of the European countries with the worst productivity levels in the workplace. “Too much stress and work,

combined with a lack of relaxation or rest, rapidly reduces our energy levels, and conditions negative attitudes, which in turn affect our behavior and productivity,” says Mario Alonso, a doctor and academic who teaches leadership, communication and creativity for the consulting firm Garrigues. “When we use up all our energy reserves, we end up functioning on automatic pilot, and not thinking about what we are doing,” says Alonso, who is the author of Vivir es un asunto urgente (or Living is an urgent matter). He says that the danger is that if we run too long on empty, we end up frustrated because re-

ality no longer conforms to our expectations. “In the long term, this makes us unhappy,” he says. Andrés Martín, author of Con rumbo propio (or Following your own direction), is an expert in reducing stress and managing change. “Introducing rest time and mental relaxation into our daily routine brings notable benefits in the way we perform,” he says. “Being calm allows us to concentrate on the task in hand without being distracted by what has happened in the past or what might happen in the future.” Martin says that the best way to avoid a negative attitude and

fessor at ESADE, believes that a poor distribution of the workday leads to “absenteeism, an increase in psychosocial risks, adverse effects on worker commitment, and the loss of salary bonuses, which reward flexibility and dedication to the company in terms of time and other aspects.” According to Marieta del Rivero of Nokia Spain, “when one’s personal life is going well, this will be reflected in one’s professional life. It is very important for a company to defend the idea that people should be responsible with regard to what they have to do as opposed to focusing on the hours put in.” Among the few Spanish companies that are beginning to recognize the importance of reducing stress in the workplace is insurance company DKV Seguros. The German-owned company has organized classes for its employees to teach relaxation techniques, the importance of a balanced diet, and even how to sit properly.

Useful information

Showers and storms Catalonia, Valencia, Murcia, the Balearics and parts of Castilla-la Mancha will see showers and storms today, which may spread to the rest of the southeast and Extremadura. The remainder of the peninsula will be mostly clear, while the Canary Islands will be cloudy in the north and clear in the south. Highs: Madrid 29ºC, Barcelona 26ºC, Valencia 28ºC, Málaga 26ºC, Bilbao 20ºC, Lisbon 28ºC.

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7

EL PAÍS, Monday, September 14, 2009

SPORTS

Real wins battle of the ‘B’ sides Guti and Granero deliver for Pellegrini, as Guardiola calls on Messi to save Barça K. RAMUNDO Madrid

Del Potro near perfect in semis to send Nadal out of US Open EL PAÍS, Madrid

Manuel Pellegrini and Pep Guardiola both know that having depth on the bench is crucial to being competitive in long, multicompetition seasons in a World Cup year. Thanks to a summer of frenzied spending, it was Pellegrini’s Real Madrid this week that proved it could dominate (3-0 at Espanyol) with three of its most decisive players on the bench, while Guardiola was forced to bring on his starters in order for Barcelona to muscle out a win (2-0) at Getafe. Pellegrini is not the type of coach who believes in a set starting 11, and he is afforded this tactical luxury thanks to a deep well of talent. “I always said everyone will get a chance,” he explained on Saturday. “Then, it is up to them to take advantage of that.” Looking forward to Tuesday’s Champions League date, the coach opted to rest winger Cristiano Ronaldo and midfielder Lass Diarra, who returned from playing full games with their national sides, as well as Raúl. Turning to Esteban Granero and Guti, he plugged two midfielders in the space vacated by Lass. With Gonzalo Higuaín, he opted for up front speed up front away, deeming the captain Raúl more effective at the Bernabéu. Although the formula took time to gel, it seems only fitting that it was Granero who scored the first goal, and Guti the second, both assisted nicely by Kaká. Ronaldo, who came on in minute 65, scored his second goal in two games. “It’s good to show that those that come from the bench can do things well,” said Granero, who under Pellegrini is rightfully

Juan Martín del Potro played near perfect tennis to send Rafael Nadal out of the US Open semifinals on Sunday (6-2, 6-2, 6-2) and reach his first Grand Slam final. Argentina’s world number six has now won his last three meetings with Nadal, after losing in the first four matches between the two. Nadal’s crash out of the US Open comes just a day after injury to his abdominal muscles caused him to pull out of Spain’s Davis Cup World Group semifinal against Israel this week. Juan Carlos Ferrero will step in for the world number two.

Eurobasket woes multiply for Spain

Messi leaps to score Barcelona’s second goal on Saturday. / álvaro garcía

Thanks to Real’s newfound depth, the difference in ‘La Liga’ is not what it was getting the chance to prove himself where he may not have expected it. Guardiola also opened the field up to his ‘B’ side on Saturday after the international break, but with a less encouraging result. Where the young wingers Jeffrén Suárez and Pedro could not seal the deal, Leo Messi and Andrés

Iniesta were called on in minute 58. Within 20 minutes, Barcelona had its two-goal lead. Zlatan Ibrahimovic put the Liga champion on the board, and the tall Swede delivered a high assist that Messi was able to control to kill off a game Getafe. Although Guardiola tried to chalk up his team’s shortfalls in the first half to jetlag — “After our international commitments, it’s always a bit tough” — the line fell flat. Although his backups have talent, Barcelona’s danger really lies in its starting 11. Dani Alves also came on in the second half, and with almost all of Barça’s muscle on board,

Getafe coach Míchel threw up his hands. “You can’t give it any more than we did. Although you are focused and at your best physically, there is a huge difference.” However, with Real’s newfound depth to reckon with, courtesy of President Florentino Pérez’s deep wells of credit, the difference is no longer what it was. With both Real and Barça starting off galloping with six points each, let the race begin. Other results: Seville 4-1 Zaragoza; Atlético 1-1 Racing; Sporting 1-0 Almería; Tenerife 2-1 Osasuna; Villarreal 1-1 Mallorca; Deportivo 1-0 Málaga; Valladolid 2-4 Valencia.

A phenomenon who rewrote the rules of cycling: Miguel Indurain UNAI LARREA San Sebastián In September 1984, the publicist for Reynolds, Francis Lafarque, received a call from the cycling team’s boss José Miguel Echávarri: “Hey Francis, why don’t you come along to the Tour of the Future [for under-25s]? We have a phenomenon here. There’s a time trial that I want you to see.” At that time, little to nothing was known about Miguel Indurain, although some may have heard that a year before, in 1983, the 18-year-old Navarran had become the youngest cyclist to win the amateur Spanish championship. But neither that win nor the fact that the Spaniard showed greater lung capacity than the professional Julián Gorospe were enough of a basis from which to predict the heights the farmer’s son from Villava would

one day reach. Back then, Indurain kept a secret hidden behind 88 locks, one for each kilo. “He’s too big for the bicycle, too heavy for the mountain,” the doubters said. Indurain was 1.88 meters tall. But Eusebio Unzue, the man who signed him and his first sporting director, thought differently. “In Navarre they were talking about a kid who was breaking molds, starting with his body make-up, which was different from that of the Spanish cyclist: skinny, light, 1.70 meters for a sprinter, 1.75 for a climber…” “We signed him in 1983, his first year as an amateur, and he won the Spanish title. I have never had so much fun in my life! He was part of all of the breakaways,” Unzue recalls. Back then, Indurain was studying to become a mechanic. However, Unzue and Echávarri saw the youngster’s progress

Miguel Indurain, at front right, in an early race with the Reynolds team. /

and suggested that he put his studies on hold for two years. The experiment worked so well that before long, Indurain turned professional at the precocious age of 20. Referring to the Tour of the Future, Indurain recalls: “It was that race where I went with the goal of riding longer stages and time trials, to get familiar with the mountain passes, to get to know France... It was a drill for the Tour.” It was a prestigious mixed

race, where young professionals and the well-known amateurs, including the fearsome riders from the Soviet bloc, shared the road. The September prologue in Valence d’Agen was won by Piotr Ugrumov, who, in the 1993 Giro d’Italia would become Indurain’s most bothersome rival. The Spaniard’s impact was negligible. He finished the stage 41st, at 22 seconds from the winner. Then came the time trial: 30km between Lourdes and Terbes. “There was something of a

EL PAÍS, Madrid Spain is on the ropes again in the Eurobasket tournament after losing to Turkey 63-60 on Saturday. Sergio Llull was blocked with Spain trailing by a point in the last seconds. Marc Gasol later seemed to criticize coach Sergio Scariolo’s set play where squad rookie Llull was set up to shoot and not his brother Pau Gasol. He later apologized. Today Spain must beat Lithuania (3.45pm, La Sexta), and win its next match to stave off elimination. hill, but it was flat,” says Indurain, who picked up 20 seconds on Jean François Bernard, and 22 on the Czechoslovakian specialist Milan Jurco. “His win there surprised us all, even Miguel himself,” says former Reynolds captain Iñaki Gastón, adding: “More than the win, what surprised everyone was that it was in the third-tolast stage. So young, after so many days and so many mountain passes, you would diario as have expected him to do less. He did more.” “His real jump as a rider came at the 1986 Tour of the Future. Indurain won it after defending the yellow jersey in Col d’Izoard and Montgenevre. It was then that we said to ourselves, ‘Look out, we can aspire to greater things’,” says Unzue. Four years later, in 1991, Miguelón, or “big Miguel,” won the first Tour de France. He would also win the next four — becoming the first man to do so — as well as two Italian Giros, an Olympic Gold and world championship.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2009 MADRID: Miguel Yuste, 40. 28037 Madrid. 91 337 82 00. Fax: 91 327 08 18. Legal deposit: M-14951-1976. © Ediciones EL PAÍS, SL. Madrid, 2009. “All rights reserved.

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ENGLISH EDITION WITH THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE

The Velázquez that wasn’t — but is The Metropolitan Museum removed the Sevillian master’s name from ‘Portrait of a Man’ 30 years ago; new analysis reveals the painting’s multiple changes of identity

A hope to be cherished

BÁRBARA CELIS New York The art world woke up last Thursday morning with a new treasure in its lap. A painting by Diego Velázquez that had remained concealed for decades under multiple layers of paint, varnish and misunderstandings, made its reappearance at the Metropolitan Museum in New York, where it had in fact been on display since 1949. The painting entered the US art institution as an authentic Velázquez, but after successive restorations the signature was lost, and in 1979 the Met decided to attribute Portrait of a Man to the workshop of the 17th-century Spanish master. The painting’s reinstatement is especially significant because the Sevillian artist was not excessively prolific. There are an estimated 110 to 120 “Velázquez” in the world, so discovering a new one is quite an event for art history and for admirers of the author of The Family of Phillip IV, better known as Las Meninas. That was certainly the viewpoint of Miguel Zugaza, director of the Prado Museum in Madrid, which holds 70 percent of Velázquez’s catalogue. “This is proof that we need to keep studying and researching without prejudice; we need to let conservators do their work, even if it means getting bad news,” he says, in reference to a Prado painting called The Colossus that had been attributed to Francisco de Goya and that scholars last year said was not actually done by him personally. The reattribution of Portrait of a Man was made possible by two Met experts who worked together: Keith Christiansen, chairman of European paintings, and Michael Gallagher, chief of the paintings conservation department. The find coincided with the fact that this is the year in which the Met decided to catalogue its Spanish paintings, made up of around 40 artworks, including six by Velázquez. When Christiansen came face to face with Portrait of a Man again, he found that the doubts he had harbored for the last 25 years were emerging again. The rediscovery of the painting’s authentic status is a genuine comedy of errors. “Every time I went to the Prado Museum I sought out paintings made in a similar style,” he says. “I even thought it might have been done by [Velázquez contemporary] Alonso Cano. The painting had too much quality to be the work of an apprentice.” So he decided to consult with Gallagher, who cleaned the small oil portrait carefully. “When we discovered the new range of colors, we knew that the original artist had conceived the painting differently from the way we had been seeing it until now,” says Christiansen.

ANALYSIS

Francisco Calvo Serraller

THE THIRD SELF-PORTRAIT OF A GENIUS? The resemblance of the face in Portrait of a Man (top) to that of the other two known self-portraits by Velázquez — Las Meninas (left) and The Surrender of Breda (above) — has caused some experts to speculate that the painting on display in the Metropolitan Museum may be a third self-portrait. The hand of Velázquez suddenly emerged clearly in the brushstrokes that were revealed beneath the layers of varnish and paint applied centuries later to make the canvas look artificially older and more like the work of an old master (as if it wasn’t!), thereby raising its sale price. Christiansen and Gallagher’s suspicions were confirmed by Jonathan Brown, the biggest US

expert on Velázquez. “This is a fantastic discovery. The picture had been under my nose all this time and now it emerges Cinderella-like,” says the professor of the Institute of Fine Arts of New York University. The painting, which is not a completed work but a study, was bought from a dealer by Jules Bache, a major US art collector who donated it to the Metropoli-

tan in 1949. At that point it was thought to be a self-portrait by the painter. But a 1963 monograph study by José López Rey assumed that it was the product of Velázquez’s workshop. In 1979, the museum eliminated the artist’s name from the description and replaced it with “The Workshop of Diego Rodríguez de Silva y Velázquez.” The next step might be to

It was rejected as a Velázquez piece by the authoritative opinion of José López Rey, the top traditional specialist on the Sevillian painter. Since then nobody had claimed, even sotto voce, that Velázquez’s hand might be behind this unknown gentleman looking out at viewers from the walls of the Metropolitan Museum in New York, where the painting was described as a workshop piece. And now this artwork does not only demand our attention as a masterpiece, but it is even posited that it might be no less than a self-portrait of the artist himself. What are the reasons for this amazing turnaround in the assessment of this painting? The most immediate and solid one is the fact that the work was cleaned, uncovering details that had remained concealed until now and displaying a quality level that Met experts consider worthy of Velázquez. These are very weighty motives. And naturally, because Velázquez’s production was scarce and highly valued, as well as kept under close watch, the possibility of attribution changes and exciting discoveries has always been enormously limited. He is perhaps one of the artists who is comparatively less subject to spectacular changes, which does not mean that there cannot be changes of opinion and “findings,” since lifting the murky veil of varnish and dust is sometimes just like opening shutters or pulling curtains aside: it allows one to admire the true landscape. In any case, and until the discovery now publicized by the Met is analyzed with new eyes by the elite of Velázquez specialists, who will in time hand down the final verdict, our immediate reaction must be one of joyous hope at the possibility of not just discovering a new Velázquez but, what’s even more important, of delving further into the hidden facets of one of the best painters in history. clear up who the mysterious man in the painting is. Several experts have pointed to the resemblance between him and a character standing at the right side of Velázquez’s The Surrender of Breda, which he painted at the age of 35 — around the same time he painted Portrait of a Man. For now, the name of the man will remain a mystery — but not the name of the author.