Election Ops E Book Excerpt

ELECTION OPS E-BOOK

PREPARING FOR ELECTIONS The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes www.mindbullet.org www.brainbang-mindbullet.blogspot.com

Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

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2008 by Eero Rosini P. Brillantes Copyright holder is licensing this under Creative Commons, Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Philippines License.

Please feel free to post this on your blog or email it to friends and interested parties. For a FREE CONSULTATION on how to get started on an election project, call (02) 8960038 and look for me, Eero or Meggy. You can also e-mail me at [email protected]. or txt/call at 09276702831. For TONS OF ARTICLES on public relations VISIT my blog at www.brainbang-mindbullet.blogspot.com

Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

Watch out for the release of my field manual on Campaign Management of Philippine Elections!

“Election Ops” Strategy. Deployment. Victory Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

Includes Chapters on the following: Rules of Engagement! Disposition of Forces! Composing the Strategy Canvas! Workshop Guide on Campaign Planning! Case Studies!

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Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

The Disposition of Forces Establishing and Analyzing the Baselines It is imperative that a survey be conducted on awareness and trust ratings at the very least before a candidacy is seriously considered. Awareness and trust are two valuable indicators of the presence and opinion (or the lack of it) of probable candidates among the voting populace. Awareness involves the actual measurement of the level of consciousness of personalities in the electorates’ minds. Trust ratings involve assessing the level of positive or negative disposition about a candidate relative to the electorate. Winability is an estimation of candidates in terms of actually entering the winning circle. Political operators would tell you that awareness ratings must be at least 75% for a serious run at a national position. In the election of 2007, the percentage range of votes cast between 12th place (Miguel Zubiri) and 1st place (Loren Legarda) was 37% and 62%. For those who are bent on running for national positions no matter what, voting preferences (presidential, vice-presidential, senatorial) surveys are conducted with a sample size of 1,200 and covers National, NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao. 1,800 respondents are used if we go regional. The Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia are the main organizations when it comes to surveys. The margin of error depends on the size of the number of respondents. A sample size of 1,200 will get you a margin of error of plus three minus three. For example awareness of a candidate is at 71%. The margin of error would make the awareness rating as either 74% or 68%. Weights are assigned to factor in how much votes can be expected from groupings. For example Metro Manila (NCR) constitutes 13% of the electorate, Balance Luzon is 44%, 20% Visayas, 23% Mindanao.

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Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Politics is war w i t h o u t bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed. ~Mao Zedong

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

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After weights are applied, the percentages are cross referenced with historical data on percentage of actual votes cast. For example at 73% national voter turn out in 2007, NCR is projected to account for approximately at least 4,215,411.28 votes cast in 2010 or 73% of 13%. If there is historical data to indicate voting turn out averages or percentages per region, projections can be further disaggregated. Even if the national average is 73%, percentage of votes cast may vary from region to region. The percentage of votes cast per region is multiplied to the total registered voters per region to pin down projected absolute numbers. This is important in micro-targeting voters. A comparison of percentages of votes cast between mid term and presidential elections indicates a tendency for voters to vote less for senators during presidential election years. For local elections, consultants can design and administer simple surveys to establish baselines and minimum projections. Local volunteers from within the district or from other districts can be tapped to actually administer the survey. The quality may be compromised somewhat as compared to a SWS or Pulse Asia. But it would be much cheaper using local crew. What is needed at the start is to see certain bottom lines. Awareness, trust, winability, demographics, psychographics, major issues, and geographical spread are essential factors to be evaluated. Let’s say a congressional district composed of 4 municipalities and 1 city has 250,000 voters. Furthermore, the municipalities have 25,000 voters each and the city 150,000. This means that the municipalities constitute 10% each of the total number of voters while the city is 60% of voters.

Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

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If we survey 1,200 respondents, we may equitably distribute the respondents at 240 respondents each geographical unit. After the survey, we determine how much percentage of each candidate we are measuring constitute the 10% of each municipality and 60% of the city. To extrapolate comparative and historical data, we can look at actual votes cast across election years to establish patterns. This is important to sharpen expectations of voting behavior. For example, even if the 4 municipalities have 25,000 voters each, they may vary on percentage of actual voter turnout given previous elections. If we can establish patterns based on historical data, we can play with more than one voting scenario. The Political Map Fundamentally, the political map can be established through the surveys and historical data. The projected Bailiwicks, Hostile Territories, and Swing Areas can be determined. Bailiwicks are geographical units surveyed and superiority of candidates is established. Hostile territories are geographical units where opponents are strong. Swing areas are geographical units where a great percentage of the voters are undecided. The activities planned, the organizing done, the resources mobilized, the message delivered and the order of battle of priority areas are very much dependent on truthful reading of the political map. A survey usually indicates voter preference. When comparing such with historical data on voting patterns, extrapolations can be done.

Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

In the sample colored table, a fictitious senatorial candidate with this data would indicate strength in the Visayas and Mindanao but weakness in Metro Manila and majority of balance Luzon. Swing areas include NCR, Cordilleras, and Cagayan Valley. Armed with this data, such candidate must concentrate on increasing awareness, trust, and winability levels in Luzon while consolidating bailiwicks in the Visayas and Mindanao. Extrapolations indicate that fictitious candidate will lose if Luzon does not deliver at minimum winability levels. If we have historical data showing voting patterns of the more recent election years, we can do some projections based on historical voter turn out percentage wise. The table below is a percentile range of voter turnout from the 12th winning senator to the topnotcher in the election years 1995 to 2007. From such we can do rough estimates of projected votes cast.

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

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Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

Comparative Statistics of Winning Candidates for Senators 1992 – 2007

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

Percent Range

Actual Votes

GMA 61%

GMA 15,745,141

Coseteng 34%

Coseteng 8,700,278

Legarda 56%

Legarda

14,933,965

Oreta 24%

Oreta

7,238,086

De Castro 62%

De Castro 16,237,386

Recto 40%

Recto

Roxas 56%

Roxas 19,327,888

Biazon 31%

Biazon 10,365,270

Legarda 62%

Legarda 18,501,734

Zubiri

Zubiri 10,005,866

37%

Source: Commission on Elections online data and Wikipedia

10,454,527

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Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

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Atty. Eric Vida is a college friend. In 2007, he ran and won as Vice-Mayor of the municipality of Mendez, Cavite. Yet, he started out as an unknown candidate outside of his circle of relatives. He approached me to map out a campaign plan for him and his entire slate. We started out by reviewing the election history of the place. We were able to deduce patterns in the Mendez electorate. First is the distinct voting divide between the poblacion and rural barangays. Second was the entrenched “Magdalo” machinery all over the municipality. Third was the presence of clans. Fourth was the percentage of votes churned out by each barangay. We conducted a survey with about 1,200 respondents divided equally among the barangays. After gathering the field data, we applied weights based on percentage of registered votes per barangay. We applied a second formula using percentage weights of actual votes cast based on 2001 and 2004 election results. The initial findings were not encouraging. Eric had very low awareness although his family name was prominent in the area. If elections were held at the time of the survey, he would have been “massacred”. What we mapped out was a set of “flanks and maneuvers”. Eric consolidated his clan and made family members the backbone of his machinery. He also organized a political party machinery since he was the official Lakas-NUCD candidate. Eric likewise got the support of the incumbent mayor who made him his running mate. He wooed the Magdalo machinery which usually operated as a block. Eric campaigned hard in the poblacion barangays where many were undecided. He reiterated and emphasized close family ties in the rural areas where the Vida clan was large in number. He deployed a substantial amount of stand alone campaign paraphernalia in hostile areas. He was able to do his homework quite well. He had adequate appreciation of the lay of the land and won based on forward knowledge established at the onset of the campaign.

Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

The Communications Map If you cannot convince them, confuse them — Author Unknown To hear some men talk of the government, you would suppose that Congress was the law of gravitation, and kept the planets in their places. ~Wendell Phillips, Orations, Speeches, Lectures and Letters The communications map establishes how a candidate and opponents are positioned in the voters’ minds, the messages to be used, and the message delivery systems to be employed. Positioning as a marketing concept is not something new to Filipinos. In fact, part of our colorful culture reflects positioning in everyday life. A concrete example is accusing someone of foul gas. Jokingly it’s sometimes called “compressed natural gas” or “biological warfare agent”. How many times have you heard a person say “Ikaw ang nagpakawala!” while pointing a finger at someone or looking at him or her in a stern way. The poor person, albeit innocent has been painted as the culprit. Chances are the accuser is the one guilty. At face value, the instantaneous reaction of people across the room is to believe the accuser. The only dead giveaway of the truth is when the sound is heard loud enough from the emanating source. Otherwise the perpetrator goes scot free. Al Ries and Jack Trout, in their classic book “Positioning: The Battle for Your Mind” defines positioning as “what you do to the mind of the prospect”. In elections, assuming products (in this case candidates) are at parity in all major aspects of the election game, what provides the edge is to positively position the candidate in the mind of the voters. This also means negatively positioning opponents also in the mind of the voters. The book Blue Ocean Strategy, written by W. Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne, sharpens this positioning concept. The book explains that value innovation drives uncontested markets and makes competition irrelevant. Red oceans are marred by so much bloodshed in the corporate world because protagonists are within the industry.

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Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

Blue oceans are created by identifying pristine market space, leveraging value innovation, and putting an appropriate price tag. It is driven by commonalities across certain industries and is very much determined by buyer behavior. Examples in the book resonate. Cirque du Soleil metamorphosed from a traditional circus to that of an entertainment mixture of circus and theatre within a thematic storyline. Casella Wines got a big chunk of the U.S. wine market. It veered away from the consumer perception that wine is a “snotty” beverage. It studied consumers of beer, spirits, and ready to drink cocktails and redrew the map by introducing a wine that is “fun, non- traditional, and easy to drink for everyone”. Southwest Airlines focused on friendly service, speed, and frequent point to point departures. The authors composed a tagline for Southwest. “The speed of a plane at the price of a car—whenever you need it.” In the electoral arena, a candidate will be measured according to how he/she is valued by voters and non-voters alike. The challenge is to position the candidate properly so that even traditional non-voters are motivated to vote, while a big chunk of existing market is captured. Kim and Mauborgne also emphasized that there must be focus, differentiation, and a compelling tag line. Focus means a clear idea of how a product is to be marketed. This would be according to a characteristic that is easy to comprehend. Differentiation involves defining the product and defining the position of the competition. A compelling tagline dramatizes the focus and differentiation so that the value proposition of the product resonates among target markets.

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Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns Same with electoral candidates. The candidate, through an arsenal of communications channels, portrays the competition as “walang nagawa” or “kurakot”. Proof is given usually through word of mouth and trigger publicity. Then the candidate positions himself/herself as the exact opposite. This becomes the strategic message of the campaign. Political handlers, communication specialists, and the candidate then sharpens the message through compelling catch words, phrases, sound bites, one liners and visuals at every opportunity possible. Vee, Miller, and Bauer introduced Gravitational Marketing to posit the marketing theory of positioning oneself as the expert in a given field so that customers (voters) will gravitate towards him/her. Applying this principle, voters are expected to flock to the precinct and vote for the candidate. This is because he/she was able to charm and endear himself/ herself to the electorate by being the expert “leader”. Look at Barack Obama. He positioned himself as the messiah of change in a turbulent and insecure time in United States history. Isabela governor Grace Padaca positioned herself as the bringer of hope to a constituency fed up with a dynasty. Fr. Ed Panlilio became a phenomenon. It was because there were three choices for Pampanga governor; a man of God, the wife of an alleged jueteng lord, and an incumbent governor accused of amassing ill gotten wealth through quarry operations. Of course it goes without saying that there must be truth in the claims. Otherwise people would not believe. As the adage goes, “In elections the air is full of speeches—and vice versa”.

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

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Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

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More often than not, political operators would say that a national election basically involves an “against strategy”. In the 2001 senatorial elections, the People Power Coalition (Administration) won a majority in Senate. The PPC projected itself as continuing the gains of the then popular EDSA people power 2. The PPC campaign organization likewise positioned the opposition as representing a discredited previous administration. 2001 also saw a violent attempt to overthrow the Arroyo administration known as EDSA 3. National media covered the event and it scared the living daylights out of the electorate especially in Metro Manila. It was the closest visualization to street anarchy and mob rule. In the 2007 elections, the same positioning strategy was applied by the opposition, resulting in a majority win. In that year, senatorial candidates of the Gloria Macapagal Arroyo government were lumped together as part of the “corrupt and illegitimate Arroyo administration”. Opposition candidates (Genuine Opposition) were anti-corruption and agents of positive change. Many of the opposition candidates were popular symbols of being anti-Arroyo and “poster boys and girls” of anti-corruption. Examples include Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero, Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, Sen. Panfilo “Ping” Lacson. and Sen. Antonio Trillanes III. The basic positioning of the opposition was very effective. Even opposition candidates like Sen. Loren Legarda, Sen. Manny Villar, and Sen. Noynoy Aquino, and independent Sen. Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan who ran less of anti-Arroyo campaigns and more of personality and advocacy campaigns became major winners.

The hardest thing about any political campaign is how to win without proving that you are unworthy of winning. ~Adlai E. Stevenson

Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

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Administration candidates who won like Sen. Edgardo Angara, Sen. Joker Arroyo, and Sen. Miguel Zubiri ran safe campaigns with token snippets of being pro-administration. Sen. Gringo Honasan ran as an independent but for the most part was in prison just like Sen. Trillanes. The element of sympathy and protest voting may have played a big role. Those highly identified with President Arroyo like Mike Defensor and Prospero Pichay, despite spending so much money on ads alone, lost in a big way. Administration candidates who won like Sen. Edgardo Angara, Sen. Joker Arroyo, and Sen. Miguel Zubiri ran safe campaigns with token snippets of being pro-administration. Sen. Gringo Honasan ran as an independent but for the most part was in prison just like Sen. Trillanes. The element of sympathy and protest voting may have played a big role. Those highly identified with President Arroyo like Mike Defensor and Prospero Pichay, despite spending so much money on ads alone, lost in a big way. An against strategy is also effective even if one is an incumbent, whether it be at the national or local level. But this hinges on how unpopular and scary the personality or issue an incumbent is positioning against. The US presidential fight between George Bush and John Kerry comes to mind. Opinion polls indicated a neck to neck fight or probable Kerry win. A nationally televised news footage of Osama Bin Laden just before the election reminded voters of 9/11 and the Bush administration’s war on terror. Bush eventually won because he led a global campaign against what his spin doctors coined the “axis of evil” with Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden as symbols. The border dispute between Cambodia and Thailand in July, 2008 crystallized nationalistic sentiment among Cambodians and fortified support for Hun Sen. His strong posture of going toe to toe with Thailand and by sending substantial troops to the Thai-Cambodia border drew overwhelming support from the people at a time when elections were underway. The messages to be used must be thought of in the same vain scriptwriters and public relations specialists develop one liners and sound bites. Unforgettable statements stick to voters minds.

Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

If you hear “puno na ang salop” you are reminded of FPJ. “You are nothing but a second rate, trying hard copycat” gives you Sharon Cuneta. “Mahal kita maging sino ka man, tsup!” and immediately Robin Padilla comes to mind. “ Axis of Evil” equates with George W. Bush,” climate change” with Al Gore, “I am sorry” with President Arroyo, and “Magandang Gabi Bayan” with Vice President Noli De Castro. It is better to associate messages with concepts that are already deeply rooted in the voters’ culture and consciousness. For example, Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano’s core messages in his advertisements and news statements were directly connected with his highly publicized tiff with First Gentleman Mike Arroyo. Sen. Escudero had ads and photo releases of him as a look alike of rock and roll youth icon Bamboo. Positive appreciation of advertisements must not exist in a void. Corollary to this is a deep appreciation of how ads must be contextualized by telling compelling stories of candidates in believable and truthful ways. That is usually the realm of public relations. Noted political and marketing guru Mr. Greg Garcia saw the need to contextualize why the electorate must learn to write “Alan Cayetano”. 30 second ads needed to be supported by public relations activities because of the existence of a nuisance candidate, Joselito Cayetano. Sen. Alan went on a media campaign and was interviewed by local and national media to emphasize the importance of writing Alan Cayetano and so that ballots will not be considered spoiled. He went to the Supreme Court. He attended COMELEC hearings. He went to Davao to visit the family of Joselito. Sen. Alan even organized prayer vigils. All these events had extensive media exposure.

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Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

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In 2008, Sen. Manny Villar brought home a number of abused overseas women Filipino workers. Their stories of distraught made Sen. Manny focus attention on the plight of Filipino workers abroad. He was so into the issue he even came out with public service announcements espousing the rights of OFWs. It can be said that the dream of every communication specialist is for his/her candidate to be projected based on a running story. It is similar to an unfolding drama but with an anticipated happy ending. In this particular case, the electorate follows the day to day events and news involving a set of characters. There is the lead (candidate), the contra bida (villains), the plot and sub plots (conflict, resolution, triumph). When then Vice President Joseph Estrada ran for the presidency, his candidacy was laid out to become a box office hit. On national media he was projected as the underdog “inaapi” because he was less educated, talked broken English and did not engage in debates. But he was tough on lawlessness and was pro poor. In other words, he associated with the “toiling masses”. After sometime, he sharpened his messages and took on a pro-poor stance against the elite, powerful and corrupt establishment represented by his electoral opponents. This immediately appealed to the broad masses to make him president. His value proposition to the electorate was that the “mapang aping uri” will be defeated by the “masa”. Says screenplay iconoclast Ricky Lee in his script writing manual “Trip to Quiapo”, “Ang manunulat ay laging naghahanap ng mga bagay na pareho at mga bagay na taliwas sa kanyang palibot. Sa isang eksena sa Curacha, nagkatagpo sina Ruby Moreno at Richard Quan ng sandaling oras ng pagmamahalan sa gitna ng barilan at patayan isang gabi ng coup noon 1989”.

Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

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In Reynaldo Lleto’s book, “Pasyon at Rebolusyon”, he posited that popular consciousness of suffering and triumph has been manifest in religious and cultural traditions. Like the holding of “Pasyon”, self flagellation, being nailed to the cross, pabasa, and the Moriones festival are prime examples. Just like Christ’s suffering, death, and resurrection, the Filipino masa longed to see the day of deliverance from all the suffering and pain that they encounter daily. If you Google the internet for pictures of Sen. Loren Legarda, you will come across a particular one. An old man is holding a small portrait of the senator while looking dazed from the hardships of life. Observe the community visits of former President Estrada and you will sense mass veneration similar to a religious icon. The third point to consider is the right mix of distribution systems. To be sure, national campaigns have the benefit of nationwide networks of TV, radio, print, and other advertisement spaces. There are also new forms of media which are highly information technology driven. There exists non-formal channels which are very effective locally and involves indigenous forms of viral communication networks. Samples include the neighborhood chismoso and chismosa, gambling bookies, the sari sari store, the palengke, the KBL (Kasal, Binyag, Lamay), the flying school (cockpits), lotto outlets, off track betting stations, and the tambayan. Viral marketing is quite effective. It involves armies of core believers who actually engage in spirited conversations about candidates they are passionate with. Probing questions by neighborhood jueteng bookies like “Sino ba iboboto nating Presidente?” while taking bets eventually lead to sales pitching of candidates. “Mare, kumpareng buo ko si mayor. Pag binoto natin siya ilalakad ko anak mo sa city hall maski casual” is a concrete situation of viral marketing. Distributing employment or scholarship forms during campaign season is yet another form of viral marketing.

Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

A usually overlooked aspect of communication is competitive intelligence. This means a conscious effort at electoral sleuthing of the opposition to evaluate their state of play. Constant monitoring and measuring of ads and collateral materials of opponents translate into a gold mine of information to out flank and out maneuver the competition. For example, the frequency, time allocation, and time duration of ads can be used to track expenditures. Such content analysis can also point to the demographic, psychographic, and geographical priorities of the competition. Take cheaply made collateral materials such as posters, streamers, and tarpaulins deployed at the top of electric poles. This may mean an opponent sorely lacks in funds and that materials might only be one wave or two waves at most. A review of conflicting statements of opponents may be used to project insincerity and double talk. Incriminating photos gathered may be used to tarnish or even destroy the image of opponents. A forward knowledge in schedules of sorties and meetings organized by opponents can be countered effectively. Bingo socials, beauty pageants, videoke competitions, and campaign rallies with more celebrities and prizes are some examples of on the ground flanks and maneuvers. Blogs are excellent sources to get the dirt on the competition. Such blogs also provide for credible source of news slants and story ideas for both the candidate and opponents.

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Election Ops: The Disposition of Forces in Election Campaigns

Eero Rosini P. Brillantes

In the final analysis, national campaigns are very much dependent on media networks and how candidates are positioned in the voters’ minds. Surveys, focus group discussions, tailor fitted communications channels, and a compelling story line very much define the activities of a campaign. It is equally important to be part of a political party, set up loose parallel structures and strike alliances with kingpins for materials distribution, sortie coordination, and voter generation/ protection. At the local level where it is more personal, the employ of national and local media plays a reinforcing role. Media projects the candidate as “bigger than life”. The primary mode of campaigning at the local level however is to dirty one’s shoes and become the darling of the electorate. Opponents are to be seen as “kontrabida”. Corollary to this is to establish an army of core believers, the so called “viral marketers” who will infect the electorate down to the precinct level where actual fighting is situated. Ultimately, all of this comes to a head with conscious development of a no frills precinct level organization. If there are 150 voters out of 200 who are projected to vote in a given precinct, a simple majority of them should vote for you. You need not even target all precincts but only those with high yield potential and an adequate buffer enough to translate into victory.

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About the Author Eero took up his Bachelor of Arts Degree in Organizational Communication at the University of the Philippines (UP). He pursued his Masters Program at the Asian Institute of Journalism and Communication (AIJC). His experience spans 18 years as communications specialist for various non-profits and government agencies. On the political front, he provides media relations work and strategy to a Senator, three district congressmen, four incumbent party list groups, and spokespersons of two political parties. Eero is the chief nurturer of Mind Bullet Inc., a marketing and public relations company. He handles account management and oversees the strategic activities at the office. He is the resident wordsmith. His other world is husband and driver to Geraldine Torres-Brillantes, an award winning documentary film maker and PR practitioner. Their children Enzo, Pia, and Nico, provide the backdrop to a rowdy and nerve wracking home. The plants and aquarium fishes at their home act as tranquility pills to even out the force and the dark side of everyday existence.