Ed Mazria At Ucsb
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©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Now, it’s personal… ©2009 2030, Inc. / Arch hitecture 2030. Not for Distribution orr Download.
Edward Mazria Architecture 2030
What are scientists saying? ©2009 9 2030, Incc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribu ution i orr Download.
We have a problem:
CO2 (ppm)
400
387
350
CO2
We’re off the e ©2009 2030, Inc. c / Arch hite hit ecture 2030. Not for Distributio io on or Dow wnload. charts. o
C 2
300
0
-2
250
-4 -6 -8
200
-10
temp. 400
300
200
100
Global Temperature & CO2 (450,000 years) Source: UN IPCC
0
We have a problem:
©2009 2030, Inc. / Archiitecture 2030. Not for Disstribution or Download.
Sea Level (mm)
What’s this mean for the US? 2008
x
50 40
©2009 2030 Inc. 30 / Architecture 2030. Not for Di Distribution n or Download. o
53% of all Americans live in and around coastal cities and towns.
Ice Melt
20
Thermal Expansion
10 0 -10 1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
SEA LEVEL RISE Source: Josh Willis, NASA JPL
2007
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Disstribution or Download.
©2009 2030, 2030, Inc. / Arch hittecture 2030. Not fo or Distrib Distribution or Downloa ad.
©2009 2030, Incc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distrribution or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 203 30. Not for Distribution or Download.
Point Pleasant Bay Head
Population 19,306 1.238
Point Pleasant, NJ
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Archittecturre 203 30. Not for Disstributiion or Do own nlo oad.
Point Pleasant, NJ 1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Elizabeth City, NC 1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Elizabeth City, NC
1.5 meters
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Elizabeth City, NC
2 meters
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Nott for Disstribution or Download.
Charleston, SC
Sea level: Google Earth / NOAA
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Nott forr Disstribution or Download.
Charleston, SC 1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / NOAA
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Nott forr Disstribution or Download.
Charleston, SC 1.5 meters
Sea level: Google Earth / NOAA
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Hollywood
Population 139,357
Hollywood, FL
Sea level: Google Earth / USG / LIDARS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architeccture 20 030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Hollywood, FL
1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / USG / LIDARS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Miami Beach Miami Beach
Population 87,933
Sea level: Google Earth / IHRCS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Miami Beach
1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / IHRCS
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Nott for Disttriibution or Downlo oad.
St. Petersburg
Population 303,447
Tampa
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Disstriibution orr Download.
Tampa 1.5 meters
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
New Orleans
Population Unknown
New Orleans
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
New Orleans
1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Foster City San Mateo
Population 28,803 92,482
Foster City / San Mateo
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS / BCDC
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Foster City / San Mateo 1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS / BCDC
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Union City
Population 55,383
Union City
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Union City 1.75 meters
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
www.architecture2030.org
Climate How Solution? Other options? change time is an Who’smuch the do energy we have? problem: There’s only one. Culprit? Confront& the Supply Demand problem. llate. a ©2009 2030, Inc. / ArchiteToo cturre 2 2030 0 0. Not for Distribution or D(takes wnles 10 d years; d. 100 animals no longer trust us)
Who’s the Culprit? Supply coal
1750 to Present (used)
oil gas
387ppm ©20 009 0 09 2030, 20387pp Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution D or Download. gas
Proven World Reserves (unused)
oil coal (oil shale/tar sands)
Pre-industrial level
350
450
550
650
750
850
Today
FOSSIL FUEL RESOURCES & CO2 EMISSIONS (ppm) Source: Architecture 2030; Adapted from J. Hansen et al: Dangerous human-made interference with climate, 2007
Who’s the Culprit? Supply ©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architecture 20 030. Not for Disttribution or Downlo oad.
NO MORE COAL (without ccs)
Who’s the Culprit? Demand 09 2030 Inc / Architectu ure 203 30. US Energy ©200 27% Buildings B Buildings Not for f Distribution or Dow wnlload d. Consumption Transportation
48% 4
Transportation
23% Industry Industry
Who’s the Culprit? Demand
Buildings
76%
©200 09 20 hite ecture 2030 0. US Electricity city Not for f Distribution or Dow wnloa ad.. Consumption
1% Transportation
25% Industry
The 2030 Challenge New Buildings & Major Renovations s - 50% 0 In 2030, Inc nc c. / Arc c. Archite Ar ecture 2030. Not for D Distribut ributtio tion on or Download d. 2010 - 60% 2015 - 70% 2020 - 80% 2025 - 90% 2030 - Carbon Neutral (or net-zero)
52.0 Qbtu (+23% in 2030)
42.2 QBtu 40.1 QBtu 37.6 QBtu 34.4 QBtu 30.6 Qbtu
6XSSRUWIRUWKH &KDOOHQJH
©2009 © 09 2030, 2030 Inc. I / Architecture chite ecture 2030 20 030. N fo Not or Distribution or Download.
©20 009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution orr Download.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution or Downlload.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution orr Downlload.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution orr Downlload.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution orr Downlload.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution orr Downlload.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution orr Downlload.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution orr Downlload.
How do we meet the 2030 Challenge?
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
1. Design, n, planning plann ning g & innovation inn Not for f Diistri t ibutiion or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Source: Mazria Inc.
©2009 2030, In nc. / Archite ecture 2030. Nott for Distrib bution or Download.
Source: Mazria Inc.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Downlo oad.
Source: Mazria Inc.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribu ution or Do ownload.
Source: Mazria Riskin Odems Inc.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Source: Mazria Inc.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Source: Mazria Inc.
2. Add Ad dd technology tecchnolo ogy Not for Distribution or Download.
3. Purchase has se ,renewable ren newab ble energy Not for Distribution or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
B SF
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architectture 2030. Not for Diistrribution or Download.
2039
new
US Electricity Consumption 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
50 Building Operations
40 30
US Elect. Qbtu 20 (Primary)
10
Coal
©200 09 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Nottwab forr Distri Di t iib butio on or Download. Renewables enew es Natural Gas Nuclear
0 Source: US Energy Information Administration
+6.87 QBtu (92 - 1000 MW)
US Electricity Consumption 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
50 Building Operations
40 30
US Elect. Qbtu 20 (Primary)
10
Coal
©200 09 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Nottwab forr Distri Di t iib butio on or Download. Renewables enew es Natural Gas Nuclear
0 Source: US Energy Information Administration
+6.87 QBtu (92 - 1000 MW)
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Disttributiion or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Disttrib butiion or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc c. / Architecture 2030. Not for Dis stributiion or Downloa ad.
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009 Stimulus Plan
Stimulus Amount ©2009 2030, Inc / Architecture 2030. $825 bi billi llionoad. billion Not for D$825 New Buildings / Renovations +/- $80 billion
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
The Two-Year, Nine-Million-Jobs Investment Plan
Stimulus amount ©200 re 2030. $Distribution $192 192 b billion biorllion Not for Download. Non-government spending - $1 trillion New jobs - 9 million New renovation market - $236 billion/yr
How does it work?
Residential Mortgage Interest terest Rat Rate enc. / Architecture rchitecture 2030. f Distributio n orr Efficienc Efficiency Reduction Existing N t New Ne w 4.0% 3.5% 2.5% 2.0%
4.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5%
30% below code 50% below code 75% below code Carbon neutral
How does it work?
Commercial Accelerated Depreciat Depreciation on / Architecture 2030. f Distribution orr Efficienc Efficiency Reduction Existing N tNew Ne w 4 3 2 1
8 6 4 2
30% below code 50% below code 75% below code Carbon neutral
How does it work?
Residential Mortgage Interest terest Rat Rate enc. / Architecture rchitecture 2030. f Distributio n orr Efficienc Efficiency Reduction Existing N t New Ne w 4.0% 3.5% 2.5% 2.0%
4.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5%
30% below code 50% below code 75% below code Carbon neutral
How does it work?
Residential Mortgage Interest terest Rat Rate enc. / Architecture rchitecture 2030. f Distributio n orr Efficienc Efficiency Reduction Existing N t New Ne w 4.0% 3.5% 2.5% 2.0%
4.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5%
30% below code 50% below code 75% below code Carbon neutral
Existing Home
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure 2030. Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad.
$272,300 mortgage loan @ 6% Mortgage balance = $260,300 Equity = $12,000
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure 2030. Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad.
$272,300 mortgage loan @ 6% Mortgage balance = $260,300
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure$ $1,632.58 12030 632 Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad. month
Mortgage loan @ 6% = $272,300 Mortgage balance = $260,300
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure$ $1,632.58 12030 632 Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad. month
75% energy reduction Cost = $51,250
Mortgage loan @ 6% = $272,300 Mortgage balance = $260,300
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure$ $1,632.58 12030 632 Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad. month
75% energy reduction Cost = $51,250
Mortgage loan @ 6% = $272,300 Mortgage balance = $260,300
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure$ $1,632.58 12030 632 Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad. month
?
75% energy reduction Cost = $51,250
Mortgage loan @ 6% = $272,300 Mortgage balance = $260,300
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure$ $1,632.58 12030 632 Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad. month
STIMULUS
?
75% energy reduction Cost = $51,250
Mortgage loan @ 6% = $272,300 Mortgage balance = $260,300
2.5% % ©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure$ 2030 $1,632.58 1 632 mortgage age for Dis Not striibu ution or Downlo oad. month $7,000 tax credit
STIMULUS
?
75% energy reduction Cost = $51,250
Mortgage loan @ 6% = $272,300 Mortgage balance = $260,300
New Mortgage $304,550 2.5% % ©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure u re$ 2030 20 $1,632.58 1 632 mortgage age for Dis Not striibu ution or Downlo oad. o d. month $7,000 tax credit
STIMULUS
$1,203.00 month
m 7 75% more efficient Mortgage loan $292,300 @ 2.5% ©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not Distribution orent Download. Original monthly payment = $1,632.58 nal for monthly paym $
New monthly payment Savings Monthly energy savings TOTAL MONTHLY SAVINGS
= - $1,203.00 = $429.58 = + $144.50 = $574.08
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architectture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Public vs. Private Investment Benefits Public Building Sector (high public benefit)
• • • •
limited jobs limited private spending limited impact need continuous Fed funding
STIMULUS • 9 mi million ion ne new jobs ©2009 2030, Inc. / Architec Not for Distribution or Download. • $1 trill trillion in private spending • $236 billion renovation market • $44-$69 billion in consumer Private energy costs savings Building Sector • 2.16 QBtu energy reduction (high public benefit)
STIMULUS
• 168.16 MMT CO2 reductions • 1 trillion cu. ft. of gas saved • 36 million barrels of oil saved • new tax base - pays for itself
Atmospheric CO2 ppm
Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
Business as Usual
450
2007
Conventional Coal Phase-out by 2030
400
350
©2009 2030, 2030 Inc. In nc / Architecture nc e 2030. 2030 20 Not for Distribution ib ibu b n or Download. + Forestry & Soil
300 1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Global CO2 Coal Phase-out by 2030 Source: Hansen, et.al., Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? (IPCC - global oil & gas reserves)
2150
©2009 20 030, Inc. / Architectu ure 2030. Not for Distributio on or Downlo oad. o
www.architecture2030.org [email protected]
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Now, it’s personal… ©2009 2030, Inc. / Arch hitecture 2030. Not for Distribution orr Download.
Edward Mazria Architecture 2030
What are scientists saying? ©2009 9 2030, Incc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribu ution i orr Download.
We have a problem:
CO2 (ppm)
400
387
350
CO2
We’re off the e ©2009 2030, Inc. c / Arch hite hit ecture 2030. Not for Distributio io on or Dow wnload. charts. o
C 2
300
0
-2
250
-4 -6 -8
200
-10
temp. 400
300
200
100
Global Temperature & CO2 (450,000 years) Source: UN IPCC
0
We have a problem:
©2009 2030, Inc. / Archiitecture 2030. Not for Disstribution or Download.
Sea Level (mm)
What’s this mean for the US? 2008
x
50 40
©2009 2030 Inc. 30 / Architecture 2030. Not for Di Distribution n or Download. o
53% of all Americans live in and around coastal cities and towns.
Ice Melt
20
Thermal Expansion
10 0 -10 1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
SEA LEVEL RISE Source: Josh Willis, NASA JPL
2007
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Disstribution or Download.
©2009 2030, 2030, Inc. / Arch hittecture 2030. Not fo or Distrib Distribution or Downloa ad.
©2009 2030, Incc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distrribution or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 203 30. Not for Distribution or Download.
Point Pleasant Bay Head
Population 19,306 1.238
Point Pleasant, NJ
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Archittecturre 203 30. Not for Disstributiion or Do own nlo oad.
Point Pleasant, NJ 1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Elizabeth City, NC 1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Elizabeth City, NC
1.5 meters
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Elizabeth City, NC
2 meters
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Nott for Disstribution or Download.
Charleston, SC
Sea level: Google Earth / NOAA
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Nott forr Disstribution or Download.
Charleston, SC 1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / NOAA
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Nott forr Disstribution or Download.
Charleston, SC 1.5 meters
Sea level: Google Earth / NOAA
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Hollywood
Population 139,357
Hollywood, FL
Sea level: Google Earth / USG / LIDARS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architeccture 20 030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Hollywood, FL
1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / USG / LIDARS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Miami Beach Miami Beach
Population 87,933
Sea level: Google Earth / IHRCS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Miami Beach
1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / IHRCS
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Nott for Disttriibution or Downlo oad.
St. Petersburg
Population 303,447
Tampa
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Disstriibution orr Download.
Tampa 1.5 meters
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
New Orleans
Population Unknown
New Orleans
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
New Orleans
1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Foster City San Mateo
Population 28,803 92,482
Foster City / San Mateo
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS / BCDC
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Foster City / San Mateo 1 meter
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS / BCDC
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Union City
Population 55,383
Union City
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Union City 1.75 meters
Sea level: Google Earth / USGS
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
www.architecture2030.org
Climate How Solution? Other options? change time is an Who’smuch the do energy we have? problem: There’s only one. Culprit? Confront& the Supply Demand problem. llate. a ©2009 2030, Inc. / ArchiteToo cturre 2 2030 0 0. Not for Distribution or D(takes wnles 10 d years; d. 100 animals no longer trust us)
Who’s the Culprit? Supply coal
1750 to Present (used)
oil gas
387ppm ©20 009 0 09 2030, 20387pp Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution D or Download. gas
Proven World Reserves (unused)
oil coal (oil shale/tar sands)
Pre-industrial level
350
450
550
650
750
850
Today
FOSSIL FUEL RESOURCES & CO2 EMISSIONS (ppm) Source: Architecture 2030; Adapted from J. Hansen et al: Dangerous human-made interference with climate, 2007
Who’s the Culprit? Supply ©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architecture 20 030. Not for Disttribution or Downlo oad.
NO MORE COAL (without ccs)
Who’s the Culprit? Demand 09 2030 Inc / Architectu ure 203 30. US Energy ©200 27% Buildings B Buildings Not for f Distribution or Dow wnlload d. Consumption Transportation
48% 4
Transportation
23% Industry Industry
Who’s the Culprit? Demand
Buildings
76%
©200 09 20 hite ecture 2030 0. US Electricity city Not for f Distribution or Dow wnloa ad.. Consumption
1% Transportation
25% Industry
The 2030 Challenge New Buildings & Major Renovations s - 50% 0 In 2030, Inc nc c. / Arc c. Archite Ar ecture 2030. Not for D Distribut ributtio tion on or Download d. 2010 - 60% 2015 - 70% 2020 - 80% 2025 - 90% 2030 - Carbon Neutral (or net-zero)
52.0 Qbtu (+23% in 2030)
42.2 QBtu 40.1 QBtu 37.6 QBtu 34.4 QBtu 30.6 Qbtu
6XSSRUWIRUWKH &KDOOHQJH
©2009 © 09 2030, 2030 Inc. I / Architecture chite ecture 2030 20 030. N fo Not or Distribution or Download.
©20 009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution orr Download.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution or Downlload.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution orr Downlload.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution orr Downlload.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution orr Downlload.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution orr Downlload.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution orr Downlload.
©2009 9 2030, Inc. / Architectu ure 203 30. Not forr Distrib bution orr Downlload.
How do we meet the 2030 Challenge?
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
1. Design, n, planning plann ning g & innovation inn Not for f Diistri t ibutiion or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Source: Mazria Inc.
©2009 2030, In nc. / Archite ecture 2030. Nott for Distrib bution or Download.
Source: Mazria Inc.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Downlo oad.
Source: Mazria Inc.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribu ution or Do ownload.
Source: Mazria Riskin Odems Inc.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Source: Mazria Inc.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Source: Mazria Inc.
2. Add Ad dd technology tecchnolo ogy Not for Distribution or Download.
3. Purchase has se ,renewable ren newab ble energy Not for Distribution or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
B SF
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architectture 2030. Not for Diistrribution or Download.
2039
new
US Electricity Consumption 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
50 Building Operations
40 30
US Elect. Qbtu 20 (Primary)
10
Coal
©200 09 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Nottwab forr Distri Di t iib butio on or Download. Renewables enew es Natural Gas Nuclear
0 Source: US Energy Information Administration
+6.87 QBtu (92 - 1000 MW)
US Electricity Consumption 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
50 Building Operations
40 30
US Elect. Qbtu 20 (Primary)
10
Coal
©200 09 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Nottwab forr Distri Di t iib butio on or Download. Renewables enew es Natural Gas Nuclear
0 Source: US Energy Information Administration
+6.87 QBtu (92 - 1000 MW)
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Disttributiion or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Disttrib butiion or Download.
©2009 2030, Inc c. / Architecture 2030. Not for Dis stributiion or Downloa ad.
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009 Stimulus Plan
Stimulus Amount ©2009 2030, Inc / Architecture 2030. $825 bi billi llionoad. billion Not for D$825 New Buildings / Renovations +/- $80 billion
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
The Two-Year, Nine-Million-Jobs Investment Plan
Stimulus amount ©200 re 2030. $Distribution $192 192 b billion biorllion Not for Download. Non-government spending - $1 trillion New jobs - 9 million New renovation market - $236 billion/yr
How does it work?
Residential Mortgage Interest terest Rat Rate enc. / Architecture rchitecture 2030. f Distributio n orr Efficienc Efficiency Reduction Existing N t New Ne w 4.0% 3.5% 2.5% 2.0%
4.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5%
30% below code 50% below code 75% below code Carbon neutral
How does it work?
Commercial Accelerated Depreciat Depreciation on / Architecture 2030. f Distribution orr Efficienc Efficiency Reduction Existing N tNew Ne w 4 3 2 1
8 6 4 2
30% below code 50% below code 75% below code Carbon neutral
How does it work?
Residential Mortgage Interest terest Rat Rate enc. / Architecture rchitecture 2030. f Distributio n orr Efficienc Efficiency Reduction Existing N t New Ne w 4.0% 3.5% 2.5% 2.0%
4.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5%
30% below code 50% below code 75% below code Carbon neutral
How does it work?
Residential Mortgage Interest terest Rat Rate enc. / Architecture rchitecture 2030. f Distributio n orr Efficienc Efficiency Reduction Existing N t New Ne w 4.0% 3.5% 2.5% 2.0%
4.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5%
30% below code 50% below code 75% below code Carbon neutral
Existing Home
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure 2030. Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad.
$272,300 mortgage loan @ 6% Mortgage balance = $260,300 Equity = $12,000
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure 2030. Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad.
$272,300 mortgage loan @ 6% Mortgage balance = $260,300
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure$ $1,632.58 12030 632 Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad. month
Mortgage loan @ 6% = $272,300 Mortgage balance = $260,300
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure$ $1,632.58 12030 632 Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad. month
75% energy reduction Cost = $51,250
Mortgage loan @ 6% = $272,300 Mortgage balance = $260,300
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure$ $1,632.58 12030 632 Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad. month
75% energy reduction Cost = $51,250
Mortgage loan @ 6% = $272,300 Mortgage balance = $260,300
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure$ $1,632.58 12030 632 Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad. month
?
75% energy reduction Cost = $51,250
Mortgage loan @ 6% = $272,300 Mortgage balance = $260,300
©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure$ $1,632.58 12030 632 Not for Disstriibu ution or Downlo oad. month
STIMULUS
?
75% energy reduction Cost = $51,250
Mortgage loan @ 6% = $272,300 Mortgage balance = $260,300
2.5% % ©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure$ 2030 $1,632.58 1 632 mortgage age for Dis Not striibu ution or Downlo oad. month $7,000 tax credit
STIMULUS
?
75% energy reduction Cost = $51,250
Mortgage loan @ 6% = $272,300 Mortgage balance = $260,300
New Mortgage $304,550 2.5% % ©200 09 20 030, Incc. / Architectu ure u re$ 2030 20 $1,632.58 1 632 mortgage age for Dis Not striibu ution or Downlo oad. o d. month $7,000 tax credit
STIMULUS
$1,203.00 month
m 7 75% more efficient Mortgage loan $292,300 @ 2.5% ©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not Distribution orent Download. Original monthly payment = $1,632.58 nal for monthly paym $
New monthly payment Savings Monthly energy savings TOTAL MONTHLY SAVINGS
= - $1,203.00 = $429.58 = + $144.50 = $574.08
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architectture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
Public vs. Private Investment Benefits Public Building Sector (high public benefit)
• • • •
limited jobs limited private spending limited impact need continuous Fed funding
STIMULUS • 9 mi million ion ne new jobs ©2009 2030, Inc. / Architec Not for Distribution or Download. • $1 trill trillion in private spending • $236 billion renovation market • $44-$69 billion in consumer Private energy costs savings Building Sector • 2.16 QBtu energy reduction (high public benefit)
STIMULUS
• 168.16 MMT CO2 reductions • 1 trillion cu. ft. of gas saved • 36 million barrels of oil saved • new tax base - pays for itself
Atmospheric CO2 ppm
Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
Business as Usual
450
2007
Conventional Coal Phase-out by 2030
400
350
©2009 2030, 2030 Inc. In nc / Architecture nc e 2030. 2030 20 Not for Distribution ib ibu b n or Download. + Forestry & Soil
300 1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Global CO2 Coal Phase-out by 2030 Source: Hansen, et.al., Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? (IPCC - global oil & gas reserves)
2150
©2009 20 030, Inc. / Architectu ure 2030. Not for Distributio on or Downlo oad. o
www.architecture2030.org [email protected]
©2009 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Not for Distribution or Download.
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