Economic Reforms 1
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Economic Reforms
1
Impact of Reforms in India Dr. Tarun Das Economic Adviser, MOF
Economic Reforms
2
Average GDP Growth rates in 1980s and 1990s (In percent)
S e cto rs
A ve 1 9 9 1 -9 2 A v e A ve 1980s 1990s 7t h p l a n 8t h P l a n 9t h P l a n 1 9 8 6 -9 0 1 9 9 2 -9 7 1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 2 A g r ic u lt u r e 3 .4 - 2 .3 4 .7 1 .8 3 .4 3 .0 & A llie d In d u stry 7 .6 - 1 .3 7 .6 4 .5 7 .0 5 .8 S e r v ic e s 7 .4 4 .9 7 .5 8 .1 6 .9 7 .6 T o ta l G D P 6 .0 0 .8 6 .7 5 .5 5 .6 5 .8
Economic Reforms
3
India emerged as one of the fastest growing economies in the last decade (1990s)
12.0
10.7
8.0 5.8 6.0
6.3 4.7
4.7
4.0
3.4 1.4
2.0
. .A U. S
Th ail an d
ia ala ys M
Ja pa n
Ind on es ia
Ind ia
0.0 Ch in a
Growth Rates
10.0
Country Economic Reforms
4
Impact on Private sector Participation Share of private sector in sectoral GDP (in percentage to sectoral GDP) Year
Agri-
Mining
Manufac
Electri-
Construc-
Trade,
Transprt
Finance,
Commn
Total
culture
and
turing
city, gas,
tion
hotels &
storage,
insurance,
social,
GDP
& allied
Quarry-
Water
restau-
commu
real
personal
sectors
ing
supply
rant
nication
estate
services
1980-81
97
25
87
13
84
95
47
71
37
80
1990-91
97
14
81
-10
84
96
47
68
31
75
1999-00
97
15
87
-7
84
98
57
66
33
74
Share of private sector in sectoral investment (in percentage to sectoral GDI) 1980-81
52
7
83
10
58
102
56
90
38
59
1990-91
70
3
81
6
84
82
47
86
18
64
1999-00
72
3
88
14
71
60
44
87
26
71
Economic Reforms
5
9
India moved on a higher growth profile 1990s
8 7.3
7 6 5
8.2
7.8 7.3 6.5
5.9
5.6 5.1
5.8
6.1
4.8
4
4.4
4.0
3 2 1
1.3
19 90 19 91 91 19 92 92 -9 19 3 93 -9 19 4 94 19 95 95 19 96 96 -9 19 7 97 19 98 98 -9 19 9 99 -0 20 0 00 20 01 01 20 02 02 -0 20 3 03 -0 4
0
Economic Reforms
6
1.5
Reduction in Current Account Deficit on External Sector (as % of GDP)
1
0 .7
0 .9
0 .3
0.5 0 -0.5
-0 .3
19 90 -91 19 91 -9 2 19 92 -9 3 19 93 -94 19 94 19 95 95 -96 19 96 19 97 97 -9 8 19 98 19 99 99 -0 0 20 00 20 01 01 -02 20 02 20 03 F
-0 .4
-1
-0 .6
-1 .0
-1.5 -1 .7
-2
-1 .2
-1 .0 -1 .1
-1 .4
-1 .7
-2.5 -3 -3.5
-3 .1 Economic Reforms
7
Acceleration in Export Growth Rate 25.0 20.2
20.0
18.4
20.3
19.6
18
16
15.0 10.0
9.5
9.0 5.6
5.0
3.3
4.5 0
0.0 -5.0
-1.1 -3.9
200 2 200 3F
200 1
199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0
199 3 199 4 199 5 199 6
199 2
199 1
199 0
-10.0 FY 1990 refers to the period April 1990 to March 1991 and so on. Economic Reforms
8
Substantial increase in Foreign Investment Inflows 8 .2
8 7 6 5
6 .8 6 .1 5 .1
5 .2
5 .6
4 .2
4 3 2 1 0
4 .9
5 .4
2 .4
0 .1
0 .1
0 .6
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02
in US $ billion
9
FY 1990 refers to the period April 1990 to March 1991 and so on. Economic Reforms
9
Significant reduction in External Debt Service Ratio 40 35
(% of gross current receipts) 3 5 .3 3 0 .2
30 25
2 7 .5
2 5 .6 2 6 .2
2 4 .3 2 1 .2
20 15
1 9 .5 1 8 .7
1 7 .1 1 7 .2
1 3 .9 1 4 .7
10 5
19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02
1
19 9
19 9
0
0
FY 1990 refers to the period April 1990 to March 1991 and so on. Economic Reforms
10
Significant reduction in External Debt to GDP ratio (at the end March) 3 8 .7 3 7 .5 3 3 .8 2 8 .7
3 0 .8 2 7 .0
2 4 .6 2 3 .5
2 2 .8 2 3 .4 2 2 .1 2 2 .4
21 20
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Economic Reforms
11
Significant reduction in External Debt to current receipts ratio (end March) 350
329
312
300
323 276 236
250
1 8 9 .0 170 160 162
200 15 0
146
126 120 110
10 0 50
93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
19
92
19
19
91
0
Economic Reforms
12
12
Reduction in Short Term Debt to Total External Debt Ratio (end March) 1 0.2
10 8 .3
8
7 .2
7 .0
6 4
5.4 3 .9
5 .4 4 .4
4 .3
4 .0
3 .5
3 .6 2 .8
2 0 1991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003 Economic Reforms
13
Reduction in Short Term Debt to Total Foreign Exch. Ratio (end March)
450 400
382
350 300 250 200 150
1 26
100 50
24
21
30
30
19
14
9
6
4
4
19 9
1
19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
0
11
Economic Reforms
14
Substantial Build-up of Foreign Exchange Reserves (end March) 90
8 5 .5
80
7 5.4
70 5 4 .1
50 3 8 .0
40 30
1 9 .3
20 10
5 .8
2 6 .4 2 5 .2 2 1 .7
2 9 .4
4 2 .3
32 .5
9 .2 9 .8
0 -10
19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 Se pt
in US $ billion
60
Economic Reforms
15
THANK YOU
Economic Reforms
16
1
Impact of Reforms in India Dr. Tarun Das Economic Adviser, MOF
Economic Reforms
2
Average GDP Growth rates in 1980s and 1990s (In percent)
S e cto rs
A ve 1 9 9 1 -9 2 A v e A ve 1980s 1990s 7t h p l a n 8t h P l a n 9t h P l a n 1 9 8 6 -9 0 1 9 9 2 -9 7 1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 2 A g r ic u lt u r e 3 .4 - 2 .3 4 .7 1 .8 3 .4 3 .0 & A llie d In d u stry 7 .6 - 1 .3 7 .6 4 .5 7 .0 5 .8 S e r v ic e s 7 .4 4 .9 7 .5 8 .1 6 .9 7 .6 T o ta l G D P 6 .0 0 .8 6 .7 5 .5 5 .6 5 .8
Economic Reforms
3
India emerged as one of the fastest growing economies in the last decade (1990s)
12.0
10.7
8.0 5.8 6.0
6.3 4.7
4.7
4.0
3.4 1.4
2.0
. .A U. S
Th ail an d
ia ala ys M
Ja pa n
Ind on es ia
Ind ia
0.0 Ch in a
Growth Rates
10.0
Country Economic Reforms
4
Impact on Private sector Participation Share of private sector in sectoral GDP (in percentage to sectoral GDP) Year
Agri-
Mining
Manufac
Electri-
Construc-
Trade,
Transprt
Finance,
Commn
Total
culture
and
turing
city, gas,
tion
hotels &
storage,
insurance,
social,
GDP
& allied
Quarry-
Water
restau-
commu
real
personal
sectors
ing
supply
rant
nication
estate
services
1980-81
97
25
87
13
84
95
47
71
37
80
1990-91
97
14
81
-10
84
96
47
68
31
75
1999-00
97
15
87
-7
84
98
57
66
33
74
Share of private sector in sectoral investment (in percentage to sectoral GDI) 1980-81
52
7
83
10
58
102
56
90
38
59
1990-91
70
3
81
6
84
82
47
86
18
64
1999-00
72
3
88
14
71
60
44
87
26
71
Economic Reforms
5
9
India moved on a higher growth profile 1990s
8 7.3
7 6 5
8.2
7.8 7.3 6.5
5.9
5.6 5.1
5.8
6.1
4.8
4
4.4
4.0
3 2 1
1.3
19 90 19 91 91 19 92 92 -9 19 3 93 -9 19 4 94 19 95 95 19 96 96 -9 19 7 97 19 98 98 -9 19 9 99 -0 20 0 00 20 01 01 20 02 02 -0 20 3 03 -0 4
0
Economic Reforms
6
1.5
Reduction in Current Account Deficit on External Sector (as % of GDP)
1
0 .7
0 .9
0 .3
0.5 0 -0.5
-0 .3
19 90 -91 19 91 -9 2 19 92 -9 3 19 93 -94 19 94 19 95 95 -96 19 96 19 97 97 -9 8 19 98 19 99 99 -0 0 20 00 20 01 01 -02 20 02 20 03 F
-0 .4
-1
-0 .6
-1 .0
-1.5 -1 .7
-2
-1 .2
-1 .0 -1 .1
-1 .4
-1 .7
-2.5 -3 -3.5
-3 .1 Economic Reforms
7
Acceleration in Export Growth Rate 25.0 20.2
20.0
18.4
20.3
19.6
18
16
15.0 10.0
9.5
9.0 5.6
5.0
3.3
4.5 0
0.0 -5.0
-1.1 -3.9
200 2 200 3F
200 1
199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0
199 3 199 4 199 5 199 6
199 2
199 1
199 0
-10.0 FY 1990 refers to the period April 1990 to March 1991 and so on. Economic Reforms
8
Substantial increase in Foreign Investment Inflows 8 .2
8 7 6 5
6 .8 6 .1 5 .1
5 .2
5 .6
4 .2
4 3 2 1 0
4 .9
5 .4
2 .4
0 .1
0 .1
0 .6
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02
in US $ billion
9
FY 1990 refers to the period April 1990 to March 1991 and so on. Economic Reforms
9
Significant reduction in External Debt Service Ratio 40 35
(% of gross current receipts) 3 5 .3 3 0 .2
30 25
2 7 .5
2 5 .6 2 6 .2
2 4 .3 2 1 .2
20 15
1 9 .5 1 8 .7
1 7 .1 1 7 .2
1 3 .9 1 4 .7
10 5
19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02
1
19 9
19 9
0
0
FY 1990 refers to the period April 1990 to March 1991 and so on. Economic Reforms
10
Significant reduction in External Debt to GDP ratio (at the end March) 3 8 .7 3 7 .5 3 3 .8 2 8 .7
3 0 .8 2 7 .0
2 4 .6 2 3 .5
2 2 .8 2 3 .4 2 2 .1 2 2 .4
21 20
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Economic Reforms
11
Significant reduction in External Debt to current receipts ratio (end March) 350
329
312
300
323 276 236
250
1 8 9 .0 170 160 162
200 15 0
146
126 120 110
10 0 50
93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
19
92
19
19
91
0
Economic Reforms
12
12
Reduction in Short Term Debt to Total External Debt Ratio (end March) 1 0.2
10 8 .3
8
7 .2
7 .0
6 4
5.4 3 .9
5 .4 4 .4
4 .3
4 .0
3 .5
3 .6 2 .8
2 0 1991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003 Economic Reforms
13
Reduction in Short Term Debt to Total Foreign Exch. Ratio (end March)
450 400
382
350 300 250 200 150
1 26
100 50
24
21
30
30
19
14
9
6
4
4
19 9
1
19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
0
11
Economic Reforms
14
Substantial Build-up of Foreign Exchange Reserves (end March) 90
8 5 .5
80
7 5.4
70 5 4 .1
50 3 8 .0
40 30
1 9 .3
20 10
5 .8
2 6 .4 2 5 .2 2 1 .7
2 9 .4
4 2 .3
32 .5
9 .2 9 .8
0 -10
19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 Se pt
in US $ billion
60
Economic Reforms
15
THANK YOU
Economic Reforms
16
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