Economic Policy In The Post Crisis Era
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Economic Policy in the Post-Crisis Era Joshua Gans Melbourne Business School PerCapita Policy Exchange Conference October 2009
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
The Crisis
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual If the GFC had not occurred, what would be different in government policy?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual If the GFC had not occurred, what would be different in government policy? No stimulus checks
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual If the GFC had not occurred, what would be different in government policy? No stimulus checks More generous social security
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual If the GFC had not occurred, what would be different in government policy? No stimulus checks More generous social security Parental leave
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual If the GFC had not occurred, what would be different in government policy? No stimulus checks More generous social security Parental leave Infrastructure less construction focussed
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual If the GFC had not occurred, what would be different in government policy? No stimulus checks More generous social security Parental leave Infrastructure less construction focussed No delay in CPRS
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual (cont.)
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual (cont.) No government guarantee of deposits
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual (cont.) No government guarantee of deposits No intervention in RMBS
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual (cont.) No government guarantee of deposits No intervention in RMBS Tighter monetary policy
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual (cont.) No government guarantee of deposits No intervention in RMBS Tighter monetary policy
The economy would be different but government economic policy would be largely the same. Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy Dual system of financial regulation
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy Dual system of financial regulation No major corporate failures
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy Dual system of financial regulation No major corporate failures Lack of banking competition
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy Dual system of financial regulation No major corporate failures Lack of banking competition No major regional government failures
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy Dual system of financial regulation No major corporate failures Lack of banking competition No major regional government failures China
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy Dual system of financial regulation No major corporate failures Lack of banking competition No major regional government failures China Privatised social security?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Keating’s Legacy
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Keating’s Legacy US$1,200bn
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Superannuation
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Superannuation Household savings took a large hit: wealth effect
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Superannuation Household savings took a large hit: wealth effect Theory: would translate into lower consumption
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Superannuation Household savings took a large hit: wealth effect Theory: would translate into lower consumption Reality: appears to have had no effect
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future II
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future II
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future II
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Role of Economists
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Role of Economists
Prediction
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Role of Economists
Prediction Institutions
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict? Answer: no
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict? Answer: no ... but it is the wrong question.
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict? Answer: no ... but it is the wrong question. Earthquakes, severe weather are unpredictable
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict? Answer: no ... but it is the wrong question. Earthquakes, severe weather are unpredictable Doesn’t prevent us building in expectation of them
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
The Two Keynesians
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
The Two Keynesians
Milton Friedman
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
The Two Keynesians
Milton Friedman
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Hyman Minsky
The Two Keynesians
Milton Friedman Normal Times
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Hyman Minsky
The Two Keynesians
Milton Friedman
Hyman Minsky
Normal Times
Liquidity Trap
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can ‘It’ Happen?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can ‘It’ Happen?
If we look some decades into the future
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can ‘It’ Happen?
If we look some decades into the future Answer: yes
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Preventing ‘It’ • Liquidity traps arise when there is a failure in the provision of liquidity
• Solution: backstop liquidity provided by the long-term agent -- usually, the government
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future III
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future III
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future III
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression What institutions did the US set-up in the postDepression Era?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression What institutions did the US set-up in the postDepression Era? Federal Reserve System
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression What institutions did the US set-up in the postDepression Era? Federal Reserve System Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression What institutions did the US set-up in the postDepression Era? Federal Reserve System Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression What institutions did the US set-up in the postDepression Era? Federal Reserve System Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression What institutions did the US set-up in the postDepression Era? Federal Reserve System Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Institution Creation
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Institution Creation Insurance for future crises
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Institution Creation Insurance for future crises Currently subject to central banker’s put
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Institution Creation Insurance for future crises Currently subject to central banker’s put Trade off between premium and incentives
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Institution Creation Insurance for future crises Currently subject to central banker’s put Trade off between premium and incentives Committed institutions prevent rather than cure -- prevent self-fulfilling outcomes
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Emerging Issues
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Emerging Issues • Reduction in bank competition
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Emerging Issues • Reduction in bank competition • About $5 billion in extra loan costs since November 2007
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Emerging Issues • Reduction in bank competition • About $5 billion in extra loan costs since November 2007
• Exposure to China and East Asia
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Emerging Issues • Reduction in bank competition • About $5 billion in extra loan costs since November 2007
• Exposure to China and East Asia This is not the time for Howardera economic complacency
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry Public exchange for derivatives
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry Public exchange for derivatives Systemic risk charge for banks
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry Public exchange for derivatives Systemic risk charge for banks Explicit deposit insurance
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry Public exchange for derivatives Systemic risk charge for banks Explicit deposit insurance Reduce bank switching costs
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry Public exchange for derivatives Systemic risk charge for banks Explicit deposit insurance Reduce bank switching costs Establish government-owned banking assets
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry Public exchange for derivatives Systemic risk charge for banks Explicit deposit insurance Reduce bank switching costs Establish government-owned banking assets Government-assessed fund quality
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Today
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Today Australia has fared well in the GFC
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Today Australia has fared well in the GFC ... but the assumptions of current regulatory institutions have been challenged
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Today Australia has fared well in the GFC ... but the assumptions of current regulatory institutions have been challenged ... and our current policies are band-aids.
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Today Australia has fared well in the GFC ... but the assumptions of current regulatory institutions have been challenged ... and our current policies are band-aids. We need a new evaluation of our institutions to match the new views of our financial markets.
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
The Crisis
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual If the GFC had not occurred, what would be different in government policy?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual If the GFC had not occurred, what would be different in government policy? No stimulus checks
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual If the GFC had not occurred, what would be different in government policy? No stimulus checks More generous social security
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual If the GFC had not occurred, what would be different in government policy? No stimulus checks More generous social security Parental leave
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual If the GFC had not occurred, what would be different in government policy? No stimulus checks More generous social security Parental leave Infrastructure less construction focussed
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual If the GFC had not occurred, what would be different in government policy? No stimulus checks More generous social security Parental leave Infrastructure less construction focussed No delay in CPRS
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual (cont.)
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual (cont.) No government guarantee of deposits
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual (cont.) No government guarantee of deposits No intervention in RMBS
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual (cont.) No government guarantee of deposits No intervention in RMBS Tighter monetary policy
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Counterfactual (cont.) No government guarantee of deposits No intervention in RMBS Tighter monetary policy
The economy would be different but government economic policy would be largely the same. Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy Dual system of financial regulation
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy Dual system of financial regulation No major corporate failures
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy Dual system of financial regulation No major corporate failures Lack of banking competition
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy Dual system of financial regulation No major corporate failures Lack of banking competition No major regional government failures
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy Dual system of financial regulation No major corporate failures Lack of banking competition No major regional government failures China
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Luck or Structure? Preemptive monetary & fiscal policy Dual system of financial regulation No major corporate failures Lack of banking competition No major regional government failures China Privatised social security?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Keating’s Legacy
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Keating’s Legacy US$1,200bn
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Superannuation
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Superannuation Household savings took a large hit: wealth effect
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Superannuation Household savings took a large hit: wealth effect Theory: would translate into lower consumption
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Superannuation Household savings took a large hit: wealth effect Theory: would translate into lower consumption Reality: appears to have had no effect
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future II
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future II
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future II
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Role of Economists
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Role of Economists
Prediction
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Role of Economists
Prediction Institutions
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict? Answer: no
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict? Answer: no ... but it is the wrong question.
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict? Answer: no ... but it is the wrong question. Earthquakes, severe weather are unpredictable
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can we predict? Answer: no ... but it is the wrong question. Earthquakes, severe weather are unpredictable Doesn’t prevent us building in expectation of them
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
The Two Keynesians
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
The Two Keynesians
Milton Friedman
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
The Two Keynesians
Milton Friedman
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Hyman Minsky
The Two Keynesians
Milton Friedman Normal Times
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Hyman Minsky
The Two Keynesians
Milton Friedman
Hyman Minsky
Normal Times
Liquidity Trap
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can ‘It’ Happen?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can ‘It’ Happen?
If we look some decades into the future
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Can ‘It’ Happen?
If we look some decades into the future Answer: yes
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Preventing ‘It’ • Liquidity traps arise when there is a failure in the provision of liquidity
• Solution: backstop liquidity provided by the long-term agent -- usually, the government
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future III
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future III
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Back to the Future III
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression What institutions did the US set-up in the postDepression Era?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression What institutions did the US set-up in the postDepression Era? Federal Reserve System
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression What institutions did the US set-up in the postDepression Era? Federal Reserve System Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression What institutions did the US set-up in the postDepression Era? Federal Reserve System Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression What institutions did the US set-up in the postDepression Era? Federal Reserve System Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Post-Depression What institutions did the US set-up in the postDepression Era? Federal Reserve System Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Institution Creation
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Institution Creation Insurance for future crises
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Institution Creation Insurance for future crises Currently subject to central banker’s put
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Institution Creation Insurance for future crises Currently subject to central banker’s put Trade off between premium and incentives
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Institution Creation Insurance for future crises Currently subject to central banker’s put Trade off between premium and incentives Committed institutions prevent rather than cure -- prevent self-fulfilling outcomes
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Emerging Issues
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Emerging Issues • Reduction in bank competition
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Emerging Issues • Reduction in bank competition • About $5 billion in extra loan costs since November 2007
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Emerging Issues • Reduction in bank competition • About $5 billion in extra loan costs since November 2007
• Exposure to China and East Asia
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Emerging Issues • Reduction in bank competition • About $5 billion in extra loan costs since November 2007
• Exposure to China and East Asia This is not the time for Howardera economic complacency
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry Public exchange for derivatives
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry Public exchange for derivatives Systemic risk charge for banks
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry Public exchange for derivatives Systemic risk charge for banks Explicit deposit insurance
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry Public exchange for derivatives Systemic risk charge for banks Explicit deposit insurance Reduce bank switching costs
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry Public exchange for derivatives Systemic risk charge for banks Explicit deposit insurance Reduce bank switching costs Establish government-owned banking assets
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Agenda for Inquiry Public exchange for derivatives Systemic risk charge for banks Explicit deposit insurance Reduce bank switching costs Establish government-owned banking assets Government-assessed fund quality
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Today
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Today Australia has fared well in the GFC
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Today Australia has fared well in the GFC ... but the assumptions of current regulatory institutions have been challenged
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Today Australia has fared well in the GFC ... but the assumptions of current regulatory institutions have been challenged ... and our current policies are band-aids.
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Today Australia has fared well in the GFC ... but the assumptions of current regulatory institutions have been challenged ... and our current policies are band-aids. We need a new evaluation of our institutions to match the new views of our financial markets.
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
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