Dragonet & Candidate Population Statistics: The Hard Numbers Of A Pass On Pern

Writer's Note: I averaged everything together after compiling fandom clutching sizes, crunching some book numbers and asking several other gamers for their opinions. This is on the conservative side of the chart. The high side is ridiculously high... This is also a short paper I wrote and distributed to a few people a few years back. I've seen nothing in fandom or Perndom to change these calculations. Please, if you use it anywhere which everyone is free to do, cite me. It's only the polite thing to do. Baseline numbers: There are 7 fully functioning Weyrs. There are 4 adult golds per Weyr. There are 2 clutches per Pass year per gold. 1 Pass is 50 years long. The average clutch during a Pass is 30 eggs1. Weyrleaders like to present candidates2 at a ratio of 1 : 3 (Egg : Candidate) to give the dragonets the best choice. “Fort Hold contains 750-900 people, with as many as 10,000 others in it’s neighboring countryside”.3 Equations: Each of the 7 Weyrs has 4 golds, in turn this means that there are 28 gold dragons on the whole of Pern (7 x 4=28). This is in a Pass, so in one year an individual gold will clutch twice and will produce an average of 60 eggs (2 x 30 = 60). There are 28 golds in the world, with each one laying 60 eggs in a year. The egg count would average 1,680 eggs in a year (28 x 60 = 1680). The number of eggs laid globally in one year can be divided into the number of Weyrs, to give an average of how many eggs an individual Weyr will produce each year. This number is 240 (1680/7 = 240). A Pass lasts for fifty years. In fifty years, the number of eggs laid is 84,000 globally. (1,680 x 50 = 84,000).5 In an entire Pass, an individual Weyr will produce a total of 12,000 eggs (84,000/7 = 12,000). Weyrleaders like to present the candidates to the eggs at a minimum ratio of 3 : 1. To offer the hatchlings as much choice as possible, 3 : 1 will therefore be used as a standard base number of candidates to eggs. For each clutch of 30 eggs, therefore, there are 90 candidates (30 x 3 = 90).5 For a single gold’s yearly total of 60 eggs, 270 candidates are needed (60 x 3 = 270).

To Stand for the yearly clutch average of a single Weyr (240 eggs from its 4 gold component), 720 candidates are needed (240 x 3 = 720). To stand for the global yearly clutch average of all the Weyrs -1,680 eggs- 5,040 candidates are needed. For the entire duration of a Pass (50 years), a single Weyr will clutch 12,000 eggs. That will require the standing of 36,000 candidates. For the whole of all the Weyrs, for whom the global egg total for the duration of an entire Pass is 84,000; the required number of candidates is 252,000 (84,000 x 3 = 252,000).

1

This number automatically discounts the rare infertile or dud egg, and hatchlings that have died within the shell. All eggs hatch successfully, are impressed and the dragonets thrive. 2

Candidates already judged to be physically and mentally capable of handling all dragon related behavior. All candidates who have difficulty flying, betweening, handling mating flights, left candidacy early, ect. have already been weeded out of the ranks. The candidates presented are perfect rider molds in all aspects and all will eventually impress. 3

Jody Lynn Nye and Anne McCaffrey, The Dragonlover’s Guide to Pern: Second Edition (New York: Ballantine Books, 1997): 72. 54

To keep the numbers free of difficult variables, only the full Pass is being considered. The sudden spiking of clutch frequency and sizes 5 years prior to a Pass nor the decrease of size and frequency of clutches 5 years prior to the end of the Pass have been overlapped to cancel each other out. The number of years (5) stated, is an arbitrary assignment, however, should provide for at least the hatching, growth, reproductive maturity and early clutches for at least a second generation of gold dragons as they replace the older golds and take over egg-laying duties at their peak capacity. 5

The assumption of overlap is already made. The number of candidates “left over” as there obviously are in each Hatching (2 : 1 :: Non-Impressed : Impressed) , is a whole figure on it’s own. Candidates left standing are recounted for each individual clutch, the number of times they may have stood before/if Impressing is not a factor.