Design: Consequences Of Alternatives
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Design: Consequences of Alternatives
What do I mean by “consequences?”
3/18/2007
1
Decision statement:
An easy task, right?
End Objectives: Nice meal in a pleasant setting Don’t want to spend too much money Don’t want to be late for the show (1-1/2 hours max)
Where should I eat before I go to the theater tonight?
Alternatives: Mario’s outstanding food, fair setting, slow service
Luigi’s reasonably good food, superb setting, efficient service, more expensive.
1
Dining Before the Theater Initial Consequence Matrix
Alternatives Objectives
Luigi’s
Nice meal: Food
Reasonably Good Food
Efficient Service Don’t Want to Be Late: Service
Mario’s Outstanding Food Service Can Be Slow
Pleasant Setting
Superb Setting
Fair Setting
Not Spend to Much
More Expensive
Less Expensive
Inaccurate
Biggest Pitfalls
Incomplete
Imprecise
Create a Consequence Table
2
Mentally put yourself into the future
Create free form descriptions
Dining Before the Theater How can this Consequence table be improved?
Organize descriptions into a consequence table
Vincent’s decision
Alternatives Objectives Nice meal: Food
Luigi’s Reasonably Good Food
Efficient Service Don’t Want to Be Late: Service
Mario’s Outstanding Food Service Can Be Slow
Pleasant Setting
Superb Setting
Fair Setting
Not Spend to Much
More Expensive
Less Expensive
Vincent plans to take time off from college to help his father through a serious illness. He needs a job to help make ends meet.
Decision statement: What job should Vincent accept?
3
End Objectives:
Alternatives:
Adequate pay
Vincent has 5 job offers.
Flexibility Vacation allowance Good benefits Enjoyable work
Vincent’s Job Decision Consequence Table
The Gibson’s New Home
Alternatives Objectives
Job A
Job B
Job C
Job D
Job E
Monthly Salary
$2,000
$2,400
$1,800
$1,900
$2,200
Schedule Flexibility
Moderate
Low
High
Moderate
None
Operations Computer
Organizational
Time Mgmt, Multi-tasking
Computer
Manage People, Computer
Vacation annual days
14
12
10
15
12
Benefits
Health, dental, retirement
Health, dental
Health
Health, retirement
Health, dental
Enjoyment
Great
Good
Good
Great
Boring
Skills Development
Must criteria analysis
The Gibson’s New Home Musts: Down payment <= $20,000 Monthly payment <= $2,000 Bedrooms: 4+ Bathrooms: 2+ Location: Not downtown or over 45 minutes commute to work Occupancy: w/in 60 days Wants: Minimum down payment Low monthly payment Location convenient to work Use present furnishings, drapes, etc.
Wants (continued): Shelter for 2 cars Public transportation nearby Convenient to schools Convenient to shopping, etc. Workshop & storage space Stable resale value Attractive modern style Good landscaping Large play area for kids Large, modern kitchen w/view Large comfortable family room Quiet Street, good neighborhood Minimum maintenance costs Minimum risks – tax increase
Musts
House A
House B
House C
Down Payment <= $20,000
$17,500
$16,000
$19,500
Monthly payment <= $2,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,600
4 + Bedrooms
4
4
2+ baths
2
2
Not downtown or over 45 minutes compute time to work
30 minutes
22 minutes
Occupancy within 60 days
45 days
45 days
4
Must criteria analysis Musts
Consequence Matrix
House A
House B
House C
Down Payment <= $20,000
$17,500
$16,000
$19,500
Monthly payment <= $2,000
$2,000
$1,600
$2,500
4 + Bedrooms
4
4
2+ baths
2
2
Not downtown or over 45 minutes compute time to work
30 minutes
22 minutes
Occupancy within 60 days
45 days
45 days
FAIL
Wants
House A
House B
Minimum down payment
$17,500
$16,000
Lowest monthly payment Location convenient to work Use present furnishing, drapes
$2,000 Good Good
$1,600 OK Very good
Shelter for 2 cars
Carport
Garage
Bus
Bus close
Convenient to schools
.5 mile
.25 mile
Convenient to shopping, etc.
I mile
.5 mile
Workshop & storage space
Large
Poor
Stable resale value
Good
Good
Public transportation near
Consequence Matrix Wants
House A
House B
Attractive modern style
Good
Excellent
Good landscaping
New
OK
Unfenced
Fenced
Good
Good
Large play area for kids Large, modern kitchen w/view
Yes
None
Quiet street, good neighborhood Minimum maintenance costs
Good
Fair
Good
Average
Minimum risk- tax increase
High
Low
Large comfortable family room
Some Practical Advice
Make the most of available information
Try before you buy
5
But don’t rely only on hard data
Use experts wisely
Use Common Scales
Choose scales at appropriate level of precision
Address major uncertainty head on
6
What do I mean by “consequences?”
3/18/2007
1
Decision statement:
An easy task, right?
End Objectives: Nice meal in a pleasant setting Don’t want to spend too much money Don’t want to be late for the show (1-1/2 hours max)
Where should I eat before I go to the theater tonight?
Alternatives: Mario’s outstanding food, fair setting, slow service
Luigi’s reasonably good food, superb setting, efficient service, more expensive.
1
Dining Before the Theater Initial Consequence Matrix
Alternatives Objectives
Luigi’s
Nice meal: Food
Reasonably Good Food
Efficient Service Don’t Want to Be Late: Service
Mario’s Outstanding Food Service Can Be Slow
Pleasant Setting
Superb Setting
Fair Setting
Not Spend to Much
More Expensive
Less Expensive
Inaccurate
Biggest Pitfalls
Incomplete
Imprecise
Create a Consequence Table
2
Mentally put yourself into the future
Create free form descriptions
Dining Before the Theater How can this Consequence table be improved?
Organize descriptions into a consequence table
Vincent’s decision
Alternatives Objectives Nice meal: Food
Luigi’s Reasonably Good Food
Efficient Service Don’t Want to Be Late: Service
Mario’s Outstanding Food Service Can Be Slow
Pleasant Setting
Superb Setting
Fair Setting
Not Spend to Much
More Expensive
Less Expensive
Vincent plans to take time off from college to help his father through a serious illness. He needs a job to help make ends meet.
Decision statement: What job should Vincent accept?
3
End Objectives:
Alternatives:
Adequate pay
Vincent has 5 job offers.
Flexibility Vacation allowance Good benefits Enjoyable work
Vincent’s Job Decision Consequence Table
The Gibson’s New Home
Alternatives Objectives
Job A
Job B
Job C
Job D
Job E
Monthly Salary
$2,000
$2,400
$1,800
$1,900
$2,200
Schedule Flexibility
Moderate
Low
High
Moderate
None
Operations Computer
Organizational
Time Mgmt, Multi-tasking
Computer
Manage People, Computer
Vacation annual days
14
12
10
15
12
Benefits
Health, dental, retirement
Health, dental
Health
Health, retirement
Health, dental
Enjoyment
Great
Good
Good
Great
Boring
Skills Development
Must criteria analysis
The Gibson’s New Home Musts: Down payment <= $20,000 Monthly payment <= $2,000 Bedrooms: 4+ Bathrooms: 2+ Location: Not downtown or over 45 minutes commute to work Occupancy: w/in 60 days Wants: Minimum down payment Low monthly payment Location convenient to work Use present furnishings, drapes, etc.
Wants (continued): Shelter for 2 cars Public transportation nearby Convenient to schools Convenient to shopping, etc. Workshop & storage space Stable resale value Attractive modern style Good landscaping Large play area for kids Large, modern kitchen w/view Large comfortable family room Quiet Street, good neighborhood Minimum maintenance costs Minimum risks – tax increase
Musts
House A
House B
House C
Down Payment <= $20,000
$17,500
$16,000
$19,500
Monthly payment <= $2,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,600
4 + Bedrooms
4
4
2+ baths
2
2
Not downtown or over 45 minutes compute time to work
30 minutes
22 minutes
Occupancy within 60 days
45 days
45 days
4
Must criteria analysis Musts
Consequence Matrix
House A
House B
House C
Down Payment <= $20,000
$17,500
$16,000
$19,500
Monthly payment <= $2,000
$2,000
$1,600
$2,500
4 + Bedrooms
4
4
2+ baths
2
2
Not downtown or over 45 minutes compute time to work
30 minutes
22 minutes
Occupancy within 60 days
45 days
45 days
FAIL
Wants
House A
House B
Minimum down payment
$17,500
$16,000
Lowest monthly payment Location convenient to work Use present furnishing, drapes
$2,000 Good Good
$1,600 OK Very good
Shelter for 2 cars
Carport
Garage
Bus
Bus close
Convenient to schools
.5 mile
.25 mile
Convenient to shopping, etc.
I mile
.5 mile
Workshop & storage space
Large
Poor
Stable resale value
Good
Good
Public transportation near
Consequence Matrix Wants
House A
House B
Attractive modern style
Good
Excellent
Good landscaping
New
OK
Unfenced
Fenced
Good
Good
Large play area for kids Large, modern kitchen w/view
Yes
None
Quiet street, good neighborhood Minimum maintenance costs
Good
Fair
Good
Average
Minimum risk- tax increase
High
Low
Large comfortable family room
Some Practical Advice
Make the most of available information
Try before you buy
5
But don’t rely only on hard data
Use experts wisely
Use Common Scales
Choose scales at appropriate level of precision
Address major uncertainty head on
6
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