Dc Public Education Enrollment

MAY 29, 2009

PUBLIC EDUCATION ENROLLMENT IN THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

1.Public education enrollment trends 1999present 2.The Non-departmental line and how it operates 3.Developing an audited enrollment 4.Analysis of DCPS enrollment projection
Is there a reason to believe DCPS will reverse an 11-year trend of enrollment decreases?
If so, what accounts for the reversal?

AGENDA

6. Is there reason to believe 3,076 new students will enter public education
If so, from where?


Is there reason to believe charters will not grow by the amount projected?
If so, what factors account for the slow-down in growth?
Is there reason to believe charter growth, if it occurs, will not come from DCPS as historically has been the case?

5.Analysis of charter school enrollment projections

AGENDA (cont.)

71,889 68,729 66,758 65,748 64,420 62,280 58,548 54,748 52,191 49,076 44,681 45,054

SY 1998-99

SY 1999-00

SY 2000-01

SY 2001-02

SY 2002-03

SY 2003-04

SY 2004-05

SY 2005-06

SY 2006-07

SY 2007-08

SY 2008-09

SY 2009-10 (proj.)

DCPS

373

(4,395)

(3,115)

(2,557)

(3,800)

(3,732)

(2,140)

(1,328)

(1,010)

(1,971)

(3,160)

28,209

25,363

21,743

19,662

17,343

15,163

13,575

11,600

10,651

9,476

6,991

3,124

Charters

2,846

3,620

2,081

2,319

2,180

1,588

1,975

949

1,175

2,485

3,867

73,121

70,044

70,819

71,853

72,091

73,711

75,855

76,020

76,399

76,234

75,720

75,013

TOTAL

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS IN DC PUBLIC EDUCATION

80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 99-00

DCPS

98-99

3,124

6,991

00-01

9,476

73,711

05-06

17,343

06-07

19,662

52,191

72,091 71,853

54,748

15,163

03-04 04-05

13,575

CHARTERS

02-03

10,651 11,600

01-02

75,855

64,420 62,280 58,548

76,234 76,399 76,020

68,729 66,758 65,748

71,889

75,013 75,720

70,044

73,121

TOTAL

07-08 08-09

21,743 25,363

09-10 proj.

28,209

49,076 44,681 45,054

70,819

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS IN DC PUBLIC EDUCATION

public education enrollment has declined virtually every year  DCPS enrollment has declined substantially each year  Charter school enrollment has increased substantially every year  Reaching the enrollment projections for each sector for next year requires an increase in overall enrollment of 3,076 students

 Overall

DATA ANALYSIS









The Council sought a justification for increase of more than 3,000 students, despite a trend of fewer students in public education in the District. These are students not currently enrolled in either DCPS or Charters. Using the Uniform Per Student Funding Formula foundational amount of $8,945 this results in an amount in question of nearly $27.5 Million. The Council placed these funds in a Non-Departmental line to be released based on the preliminary audit conducted during the first week of October.

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS IN DC PUBLIC EDUCATION



State of the economy will lead to transfers from private to public education  Increase in Pre-K Students  Students returning to DCPS from non-public tuition placements  Increase in out-of-boundary applications  21st Century School Fund, Brookings Institute and Urban Institute study shows slight DCPS growth  New students enter public education

FACTORS CITED FOR TREND REVERSAL