&217$0,1$&,Ï1325&2<12[(1%8(126$,5(6 5(68/7$'26'(/'$802'
/$85$(9(1(*$61,&2/È6$0$==(2
&RQVHMR1DFLRQDOGH,QYHVWLJDFLRQHV&LHQWtILFDV\7pFQLFDV 'HSDUWDPHQWRGH&LHQFLDVGHOD$WPyVIHUD\ORV2FpDQRV)&(\18%$ &LXGDG8QLYHUVLWDULD3DE%XHQRV$LUHV$UJHQWLQD 7HOLQW )D[LQW HPDLOYHQHJDV#DWIFHQXEDDUPD]]HR#DWIFHQXEDDU
&855,&8/809,7$($%5(9,$'2'(/26$8725(6 /DXUD(9(1(*$6 'RFWRUD HQ &LHQFLDV GH OD $WPyVIHUD 8QLYHUVLGDG GH %XHQRV $LUHV 3URIHVRUD 5HJXODU $GMXQWD GH 0LFURPHWHRURORJtD HQ OD )DFXOWDG GH &LHQFLDV ([DFWDV \ 1DWXUDOHV GH OD 8QLYHUVLGDG GH %XHQRV $LUHV ,QYHVWLJDGRUD $GMXQWD GHO &RQVHMR 1DFLRQDO GH ,QYHVWLJDFLRQHV &LHQWtILFDV \ 7pFQLFDV &21,&(7 +D UHDOL]DGR FXUVRV GH SRVWJUDGR \ SHUIHFFLRQDPLHQWR HQ HO SDtV \ HQ HO H[WHULRU 86(3$ VREUHFRQWDPLQDFLyQGHODLUH\GLVSHUVLyQDWPRVIpULFD$XWRUDGHWUDEDMRVVREUHHOWHPD GH GLVSHUVLyQ GH FRQWDPLQDQWHV HQ OD DWPyVIHUD SXEOLFDGRV HQ $FWDV GH &RQJUHVRV \ 5HYLVWDV 1DFLRQDOHVH,QWHUQDFLRQDOHV,QWHJUDQWHGH&RPLVLRQHV$VHVRUDV\(YDOXDGRUDVGHOD8%$6(&<7\ GHO0LQLVWHULRGH(GXFDFLyQ0LHPEURGHDVRFLDFLRQHVSURIHVLRQDOHVQDFLRQDOHVHLQWHUQDFLRQDOHV 1LFROiV$0$==(2 'RFWRU HQ &LHQFLDV GH OD $WPyVIHUD 8QLYHUVLGDG GH %XHQRV $LUHV 3URIHVRU 5HJXODU 7LWXODU GH 0LFURPHWHRURORJtD \ &RQWDPLQDFLyQ $WPRVIpULFD HQ OD )DFXOWDG GH &LHQFLDV ([DFWDV \ 1DWXUDOHV 8%$ 3URIHVRU GH OD PDWHULD &RQWDPLQDFLyQ GHO $LUH HQ 0DHVWUtDV 0HGLRDPELHQWDOHV \ &XUVRV GH 3RVWJUDGR HQ GLYHUVDV 8QLYHUVLGDGHV GHO SDtV 0LHPEUR GH OD &DUUHUD GHO ,QYHVWLJDGRU &LHQWtILFR \ 7HFQROyJLFR GHO &RQVHMR 1DFLRQDO GH ,QYHVWLJDFLRQHV &LHQWtILFDV \ 7pFQLFDV &21,&(7 $XWRU GH WUDEDMRV GH LQYHVWLJDFLyQ SXEOLFDGRV HQ $FWDV GH &RQJUHVRV \ 5HYLVWDV 1DFLRQDOHV H ,QWHUQDFLRQDOHV 'HVHPSHxy GLIHUHQWHV FDUJRV FLHQWtILFRV \ GH FRQGXFFLyQ HQ HO 6HUYLFLR 0HWHRUROyJLFR 1DFLRQDO &RPLVLyQ 1DFLRQDO GH (QHUJtD $WyPLFD 2EVHUYDWRULR 1DFLRQDO GH )tVLFD &yVPLFD\)DFXOWDGGH&LHQFLDV([DFWDV\1DWXUDOHV8%$ 3$/$%5$6&/$9( FDOLGDGGHODLUHPRGHORGHGLIXVLyQXUEDQDPRQy[LGRGHFDUERQRy[LGRVGH QLWUyJHQRFRQFHQWUDFLyQGHIRQGR
5(680(1
6H SUHVHQWD OD DSOLFDFLyQ GHO PRGHOR GH 'LIXVLyQ $WPRVIpULFD 8UEDQD GHQRPLQDGR '$802' D ODV HPLVLRQHVGHPRQy[LGRGHFDUERQR\y[LGRVGHQLWUyJHQRJHQHUDGRVSRUHOWUDQVSRUWHDXWRPRWRUGH SDVDMHURV HQ OD &LXGDG GH %XHQRV $LUHV FRQ HO REMHWR GH HQFRQWUDU OD GLVWULEXFLyQ KRUL]RQWDO GH OD FRQWDPLQDFLyQGHIRQGRRULJLQGDSRUHVWDVIXHQWHVGHHPLVLyQ/RVSULQFLSDOHVUHVXOWDGRVREWHQLGRV VRQORVVLJXLHQWHVD ODFRQWULEXFLyQGH ODVPLVPDVDODFRQFHQWUDFLyQGHPRQy[LGR GHFDUERQR HQ DLUHDQLYHOGHOVXHORVHHQFXHQWUDHQWUHHO\HOE ODFRQWULEXFLyQDODFRQFHQWUDFLRQGH y[LGRV GH QLWUyJHQR HQ DLUH D QLYHO GHO VXHOR HVWi FRPSUHQGLGD HQWUH HO \ HO \ F ODV SULQFLSDOHVDYHQLGDV \YtDVGHFLUFXODFLyQGHOWUDQVSRUWHDXWRPRWRUGHSDVDMHURVVRQODV ]RQDVPiV DIHFWDGDV ,1752'8&&,Ï1
(QORV~OWLPRVGRVFLHQWRVDxRVSHURSULQFLSDOPHQWHHQORVFLQFXHQWDDxRVPiVUHFLHQWHVVH OOHYyD FDER OD PiV H[WUDRUGLQDULD UHYROXFLyQ FLHQWtILFD \ WpFQLFD GH OD KLVWRULD GH OD KXPDQLGDG &RQVHFXHQFLD GH HOOR VRQ ORV HIHFWRV DPELHQWDOHV SULQFLSDOPHQWH SURGXFLGRV SRU HO XVR LQGLVFULPLQDGR GH ORV UHFXUVRV \ SRU OD LQWURGXFFLyQ DO PHGLR DPELHQWH GH DJHQWHV H[WHUQRV (VWH ~OWLPR DVSHFWR LQYROXFUD HQWUH RWUDV FDXVDV HO FUHFLPLHQWR GH ODV iUHDV XUEDQDV \ VX FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHLQFUHPHQWRHQHOXVRGHORVYHKtFXORVDXWRPRWRUHV\XQDUiSLGDLQGXVWULDOL]DFLyQDVt FRPR ODV GHILFLHQFLDV HQ HO SODQHDPLHQWR \ HQ ODV UHJXODFLRQHV DPELHQWDOHV TXH KDQ RULJLQDGR XQ JUDYHGHWHULRURGHODVDOXGKXPDQD\GHOPHGLRDPELHQWH
(O GHWHULRUR GH OD FDOLGDG GHO DLUH HQ JUDQGHV FHQWURV XUEDQRV FRQVWLWX\H XQ LPSRUWDQWH SUREOHPD HFROyJLFR (Q DOJXQRV SDtVHV HQ GHVDUUROOR HVWD VLWXDFLyQ FRQWLQ~D DJUDYiQGRVH FRQ HO WLHPSR FRQYLUWLpQGRVHHQXQDDPHQD]DSDUDODVDOXG\HOELHQHVWDUGHODSREODFLyQ\SDUDHODPELHQWH
(Q DOJXQDV FLXGDGHV ODWLQRDPHULFDQDV ODV FRQFHQWUDFLRQHV GH FRQWDPLQDQWHV HQ HO DLUH VXSHUDQ RFDVLRQDOPHQWH ODV QRUPDV GH FDOLGDG GH DLUH DPELHQWDO (Q OD PD\RUtD GH HOODV ORV YHKtFXORV DXWRPRWRUHVFRQVWLWX\HQODSULQFLSDOFDXVDGHOGHWHULRURGHODFDOLGDGGHODLUH/RVFRQWDPLQDQWHVGHO DLUHPiVFRPXQHVHQODVFLXGDGHVODWLQRDPHULFDQDVVRQ ORVy[LGRVGHQLWUyJHQR12[ >H[SUHVDGRV FRPR GLy[LGR GH QLWUyJHQR 12 @ HO PRQy[LGR GH FDUERQR &2 HO GLy[LGR GH D]XIUH 62 HO PDWHULDOSDUWLFXODGR03 HOSORPR3E HOR]RQR2 \ORVFRPSXHVWRVRUJiQLFRVYROiWLOHV
/D &LXGDG GH %XHQRV $LUHV FRQ FDVL WUHV PLOORQHV GH KDELWDQWHV NP GH VXSHUILFLH \ DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH GRV PLOORQHV GH YHKtFXORV DXWRPRWRUHV HQ FLUFXODFLyQ FRQVWLWX\H HO RFWDYR FRQJORPHUDGRXUEDQR GHO PXQGR $OJXQRV HVWXGLRV 0D]]HR \ 9HQHJDV %RJR \ RWURV 9HQHJDV \0D]]HRD %RJR \RWURV UHDOL]DGRVHQORV ~OWLPRVDxRVSHUPLWHQGHWHUPLQDU TXHHQDOJXQDVFLUFXQVWDQFLDVH[LVWHQSUREOHPDVGHFRQWDPLQDFLyQGHODLUHHQHVWDFLXGDG
'LIHUHQWHVDXWRUHVYHU%HQDULH+DQQD\RWURV$U\D KDQGHVDUUROODGRPRGHORVGH GLIXVLyQ DWPRVIpULFD XUEDQD /RV UHVXOWDGRV GH OD DSOLFDFLyQ GH ORV PRGHORV IXHURQ FRPSDUDGRV VDWLVIDFWRULDPHQWH FRQ YDORUHV REVHUYDGRV GH FDOLGDG GHO DLUH HQ GLIHUHQWHV FLXGDGHV 0D]]HR \ 9HQHJDV \9HQHJDV\0D]]HRE GHVDUUROODURQ PRGLILFDURQDFWXDOL]DURQ\HYDOXDURQPRGHORVGHGLIXVLyQ\GHGLIXVLyQGHSyVLWRGHFRQWDPLQDQWHVHQ iUHDVXUEDQDV
(Q HVWH WUDEDMR VH SUHVHQWD OD DSOLFDFLyQ GH OD ~OWLPD YHUVLyQ GHO PRGHOR GH GLIXVLyQ DWPRVIpULFD XUEDQD GHQRPLQDGR '$802' D ODV HPLVLRQHV GH FRQWDPLQDQWHV JHQHUDGRV SRU ORV YHKtFXORV GH WUDQVSRUWH DXWRPRWRU GH SDVDMHURV HQ OD &LXGDG GH %XHQRV $LUHV FRQ HO REMHWR GH REWHQHU OD GLVWULEXFLyQKRUL]RQWDOGHODFRQWDPLQDFLyQGHIRQGRXUEDQDGHELGDDHVWDVIXHQWHVGHHPLVLyQ/RV UHVXOWDGRV VRQ FRPSDUDGRV FRQ YDORUHV GH FRQFHQWUDFLyQ GH &2 PHGLGRV HQ OD FDOOH 7DOFDKXDQR HQWUH OD $Y &RUULHQWHV \ /DYDOOH \ GH FRQFHQWUDFLyQ GH 12; REVHUYDGRV HQ OD $Y /DV +HUDV \ 2FDPSR
'(6&5,3&,Ï1'(/02'(/2'(',)86,Ï1$7026)e5,&$85%$1$'$802'
(OPRGHORGHGLIXVLyQDWPRVIpULFDXUEDQD'$802'HVWiEDVDGRHQODFRQGLFLyQOtPLWHLQIHULRUGHOD HFXDFLyQ VHPLHPStULFD GH GLIXVLyQ H LQFRUSRUD XQD H[SUHVLyQ GH OD YDULDFLyQ FRQ OD GLVWDQFLD GH OD DOWXUDGHOOtPLWHVXSHULRUGHODSOXPDGHFRQWDPLQDQWHV
/D GLIXVLyQ DWPRVIpULFD GH FRQWDPLQDQWHV HVWi JREHUQDGD SRU OD VLJXLHQWH HFXDFLyQ VHPLHPStULFD ELGLPHQVLRQDOVLPSOLILFDGDYHU$U\D
X ]
w& [ ] w[
w w]
w& [ ] º ª «. ] » w] ¬ ¼
GRQGH&[] HVODFRQFHQWUDFLyQGHFRQWDPLQDQWHVHQHODLUHX HVODYHORFLGDGGHOYLHQWR[ HVWiHQ OD GLUHFFLyQ GHO YLHQWR ] VH HQFXHQWUD HQ OD YHUWLFDO \ . HV OD GLIXVLYLGDG WXUEXOHQWD YHUWLFDO /D HFXDFLyQ HVYiOLGDHQFRQGLFLRQHVHVWDFLRQDULDV\FXDQGRODGLIXVLyQWXUEXOHQWDHQODGLUHFFLyQ[ HVPHQRUTXHODDGYHFFLyQDWPRVIpULFDHQHVDGLUHFFLyQ 6L HO HIOXHQWH HV HPLWLGR FRQWLQXDPHQWH GHVGH XQD IXHQWH XELFDGD HQ VXSHUILFLH OD FRQGLFLyQ OtPLWH LQIHULRUVHSXHGHH[SUHVDUPHGLDQWH
. ]
w& [ ] w]
4
HQ]
GRQGH4 HVHOFDXGDOPiVLFRGHODIXHQWHPDVDSRUXQLGDGGHiUHD\GHWLHPSR
2WUD VXSRVLFLyQ EiVLFD HV TXH D OD GLVWDQFLD [ HO WRSH OtPLWH GHO PRGHOR K FRLQFLGH FRQ HO OtPLWH VXSHULRUGHODSOXPDGHFRQWDPLQDQWHV'HHVWDPDQHUD
& [ K [
3RU OR WDQWR QR H[LVWH WUDQVSRUWH GH PDVD D WUDYpV GHO OtPLWH VXSHULRU GH OD SOXPD FRQGLFLyQ TXH SXHGHVHUH[SUHVDGDGHODVLJXLHQWHIRUPD
. ]
w & [ ] w]
HQ] K
/DV YDULDFLRQHV YHUWLFDOHV GH OD YHORFLGDG GHO YLHQWR \ GH OD GLIXVLYLGDG WXUEXOHQWD HQ OD FDSD GH VXSHUILFLHSXHGHQVHUH[SUHVDGDVPHGLDQWHODVVLJXLHQWHVHFXDFLRQHVYHU$U\D
X ] . ]
X ª ] § ] ·º OQ \ ¨ ¸» « N ¬ ] © / ¹¼
N X ] ] I] /
GRQGHX HVODYHORFLGDGGHIULFFLyQ] HVODORQJLWXGGHUXJRVLGDGN HVODFRQVWDQWHGHYRQ.DUPDQ N / HVODORQJLWXGGH0RQLQ2EXNKRY\YHU:LHULQJD
I ] / I] /
] /
] /
\ ]/
\ ]/
SDUD]/t
SDUD]/
] /
SDUD]/t
I ] /
SDUD]/
/D YDULDFLyQ YHUWLFDO GH OD FRQFHQWUDFLyQ GH FRQWDPLQDQWHV HQ HO DLUH SXHGH VHU H[SUHVDGD SRU OD VLJXLHQWHIXQFLyQSROLQRPLDO
K
& [ ¦ $ L ]
& []
L
L
ORVFRHILFLHQWHV$L GHSHQGHQGHODVFRQGLFLRQHVGHHVWDELOLGDGDWPRVIpULFD0D]]HR\9HQHJDV 9HQHJDV\0D]]HR 6XVWLWX\HQGRODVH[SUHVLRQHV \ HQ HLQWHJUDQGRVHREWLHQHODVLJXLHQWHHFXDFLyQ
& [
4 K [ $ N X ] R
/D YDULDFLyQ GH K FRQ OD GLVWDQFLD HQ OD GLUHFFLyQ [ SXHGH VHU REWHQLGD D SDUWLU GH OD VLJXLHQWH HFXDFLyQGHFRQWLQXLGDGGHODPDVD
³ 4[ G[ ³ X] &[ ] G] [
K
]
\FRQVLGHUDQGRODVH[SUHVLRQHV \ MXQWRFRQODFRQGLFLyQOtPLWHGDGDSRU /DIRUPDGHK[ REWHQLGDSXHGHVHUDSUR[LPDGDPHGLDQWHODVLJXLHQWHIXQFLyQ
K ]
§ [ · ¸¸ D ¨¨ © ] ¹
E
GRQGH ORV FRHILFLHQWHV D \ E VRQ IXQFLRQHV GH ]/ \ YDUtDQ HQWUH SDUD ]/ d D d SDUD]/ \SDUD]/ d E d SDUD]/ 9HQHJDV\0D]]HR
&RPELQDQGRODVHFXDFLRQHV \ VHREWLHQH
& [
D4 § [ · ¨ ¸ $ N X ¨© ] ¸¹
E
&RQVLGHUDQGR XQD GLVWULEXFLyQ KRUL]RQWDO GH IXHQWHV DUHDOHV GH HPLVLyQ FRQ LQWHQVLGDGHV 4[ GH DFXHUGRFRQXQUHWLFXODGRHVSHFtILFR\VLHOFDXGDOPiVLFRGHHPLVLyQGHFRQWDPLQDQWHVHVFRQVWDQWH GHQWURGHFDGDUHWtFXOR\HVWiGDGRSRU4L FRQL 1ODYDULDFLyQ GH ODFRQFHQWUDFLyQFRQOD GLVWDQFLD[SDUD[ ![L L 1 SXHGHREWHQHUVHPHGLDQWH
& [
ª D «4 [ E «¬
¦ 4 1
L
L
E º 4 L [ [ L » »¼
$
L
N ] X E
$3/,&$&,21'(/'$802'$/$(67,0$&,Ï1'(&21&(175$&,21(6'(&217$0,1$17(6 (1$,5((1/$&,8'$''(%8(126$,5(6
(OPRGHORGHGLIXVLyQDWPRVIpULFDXUEDQD '$802' IXH DSOLFDGR VDWLVIDFWRULDPHQWH D OD HVWLPDFLyQ GH ODV FRQFHQWUDFLRQHV GH FRQWDPLQDQWHV HQ DLUH D QLYHO GHO VXHOR HQ 1DVKYLOOH ((88 %UHPHQ $OHPDQLD )UDQNIXUW$OHPDQLD \&RSHQKDJXH'LQDPDUFD YHU0D]]HR\9HQHJDV9HQHJDV \0D]]HRE9HQHJDV\0D]]HR
0D]]HR \ 7RUUHV 9LODU REWXYLHURQ ODV GLVWULEXFLRQHV KRUL]RQWDOHV GH ODV HPLVLRQHV KRUDULDVDODDWPyVIHUDGHPRQy[LGRGHFDUERQRy[LGRVGHQLWUyJHQRKLGURFDUEXURVWRWDOHV\PDWHULDO SDUWLFXODGRWRWDOJHQHUDGRVSRUORVYHKtFXORVGHWUDQVSRUWH DXWRPRWRUGHSDVDMHURVHQOD&LXGDG GH %XHQRV$LUHV 0RQy[LGRGHFDUERQR
/D )XQGDFLyQ 6LJOR ;;, UHDOL]D GHVGH KDFH DOJXQRV DxRV PHGLFLRQHV GH FRQFHQWUDFLRQHV PHGLDV SHUtRGRGHSURPHGLRKRUDV GHPRQy[LGRGHFDUERQRHQDLUHHQHOWHUFHUSLVRGHXQHGLILFLRGHOD FDOOH7DOFDKXDQRHQWUHOD$Y&RUULHQWHV\ODFDOOH/DYDOOHYHU0D]]HR\9HQHJDV9HQHJDV\ 0D]]HRD0D]]HR\9HQHJDV (OPRGHOR'$802'IXHDSOLFDGRSDUDHVWLPDUORVYDORUHVPHGLRVDQXDOHVGHODVFRQFHQWUDFLRQHVGH IRQGR GH &2 HQ OD ]RQD GH OD XELFDFLyQ GHO PXHVWUHDGRU 'HELGR D TXH HO PXHVWUHDGRU GH &2 VH HQFXHQWUDHQXQFDxyQXUEDQRHOYDORUFDOFXODGRIXHDIHFWDGRSRUXQIDFWRUTXHSHUPLWHUHODFLRQDU ODFRQFHQWUDFLyQGHQWURGHOFDxyQFRQODGHIRQGRREWHQLGRSDUDXQFDxyQVLPLODUDOGH7DOFDKXDQR 6FKDW]PDQQ\RWURV (Q OD )LJXUD VH HQFXHQWUDQ JUDILFDGDV ODV YDULDFLRQHV GH ORV SURPHGLRV DQXDOHV GH ODV FRQFHQWUDFLRQHVPHGLGD\FDOFXODGDDGDSWDGDSRUHOHIHFWRGHOFDxyQSDUDHOSHUtRGRHQWUH\ /D FRQFHQWUDFLyQ PHGLGD YDUtD HQWUH SSP \ SSP \ OD FDOFXODGD DGDSWDGD HQWUH SSP\SSP
PHGLGD
FDOFXODGD
&RQFFDOFXODGD >SSP@
&RQFPHGLGD >SSP@
)LJXUD9DORUHVPHGLGRV\FDOFXODGRVGHORVSURPHGLRVDQXDOHVGHODFRQFHQWUDFLyQPHGLDGH&2
(Q OD )LJXUD VH SUHVHQWDQ ORV FRFLHQWHV HQWUH ODV FRQFHQWUDFLRQHV PHGLDV DQXDOHV FDOFXODGD DGDSWDGD \ PHGLGD (O PHQRU FRFLHQWH IXH \ HO PD\RU LQGLFDQGR TXH OD FRQWULEXFLyQ UHODWLYDGHOWUDQVSRUWHDXWRPRWRUDODFRQFHQWUDFLyQGH&2HQODFDOOH7DOFDKXDQRKDDXPHQWDGRHQ ORV~OWLPRVDxRV(VWRSRGUtDGHEHUVHD ODGLVPLQXFLyQGH ODFLUFXODFLyQGHDXWRPyYLOHVSDUWLFXODUHV YHU0D]]HR\9HQHJDV
&2FDOFXODGD &2PHGLGD
)LJXUD9DULDFLyQGHOFRFLHQWHHQWUHODVFRQFHQWUDFLRQHVGH&2PHGLDDQXDOFDOFXODGD\PHGLGD
(Q ODV )LJXUDV \ VH SUHVHQWDQ ODV LVRSOHWDV GH ODV FRQFHQWUDFLRQHV PHGLDV PHQVXDOHV FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHV D ORV PHVHV GH HQHUR \ MXOLR HQ DLUH D QLYHO GHO VXHOR GH PRQy[LGR GH FDUERQR JHQHUDGR SRUHOWUDQVSRUWHDXWRPRWRUGHSDVDMHURVHQOD&LXGDG GH %XHQRV $LUHV FDOFXODGDV SRU HO '$802' 6H REVHUYD OD LQIOXHQFLD GH ODV SULQFLSDOHV YtDV GH FLUFXODFLyQ YHKLFXODU GHO WUDQVSRUWH DXWRPRWRUGHSDVDMHURV
)LJXUD,VRSOHWDVGHFRQFHQWUDFLyQ>
SSP@PHGLDPHQVXDOGH&2HQDLUHDQLYHOGHOVXHOR 0HVGHHQHUR
)LJXUD,VRSOHWDVGHFRQFHQWUDFLyQ>
SSP@PHGLDPHQVXDOGH&2HQDLUHDQLYHOGHOVXHOR 0HVGHMXOLR
2[LGRVGHQLWUyJHQR
8WLOL]DQGRORVYDORUHVGHHPLVLyQGHORVy[LGRVGHQLWUyJHQRH[SUHVDGRVFRPRGLy[LGRGHQLWUyJHQR \ OD LQIRUPDFLyQ PHWHRUROyJLFD KRUDULD FRUUHVSRQGLHQWH PHGLDQWH OD DSOLFDFLyQ GHO '$802' VH FDOFXODURQ ODV FRQFHQWUDFLRQHV PHGLDV DQXDOHV GH y[LGRV GH QLWUyJHQR HQ DLUH D QLYHO GHO VXHOR FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHV D OD HVTXLQD GH $Y /DV +HUDV \ 2FDPSR 7HQLHQGR HQ FXHQWD ODV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV SDUWLFXODUHVGHOD ]RQDVHXWLOL]y OD KLSyWHVLVGH TXH ODFRQFHQWUDFLyQ GHIRQGRFDOFXODGD QR GLIHUtD VXVWDQFLDOPHQWHGHODFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHDODDOWXUDGHOPXHVWUHDGRU
(Q OD)LJXUD VH SUHVHQWDQ ODVFRQFHQWUDFLRQHVPHGLDVDQXDOHVGH 12[ FDOFXODGD \ PHGLGD SRU HO *RELHUQRGHOD&LXGDGGH%XHQRV$LUHVHQWUH\*RELHUQRGHOD&LXGDGGH%XHQRV$LUHV /RVGDWRVFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHVDO\QRHVWiQSXEOLFDGRV/DFRQFHQWUDFLyQPHGLDDQXDO PHGLGDYDUtDHQWUHPJP \PJP \ODHVWLPDGDHQWUHPJP \PJP
0HGLGD
&DOFXODGD
12[FDOFXODGD PJP
12[PHGLGD PJP
)LJXUD9DORUHVPHGLGRV\FDOFXODGRVGHORVSURPHGLRVDQXDOHVGHODFRQFHQWUDFLyQPHGLDGH12[ (QOD)LJXUDVHSUHVHQWDQORVFRFLHQWHVHQWUHODFRQFHQWUDFLyQPHGLDDQXDOFDOFXODGD\PHGLGDHO PHQRUYDORUIXH\HOPD\RU /DUHODFLyQHQWUHORVIDFWRUHVGHHPLVLyQFRQVLGHUDGRVSDUD DXWRPyYLOHVYHKtFXORVGHWUDQVSRUWHGHSDVDMHURVFRUUHVSRQLHQWHVDO12[ HV\ODUHODFLyQPHGLD HQWUHODVFRQFHQWUDFLRQHVFDOFXODGD\PHGLGDHV(QFRQVHFXHQFLDODUHODFLyQHQWUHORVIOXMRV GH YHKtFXORV GH WUDQVSRUWH GH SDVDMHURVRWURV DXWRPRWRUHV HV TXH FRLQFLGH FRQ DOJXQDV PHGLFLRQHVGHIOXMRGHWUiQVLWR
12[FDOFXODGD 12[PHGLGD
)LJXUD9DULDFLyQGHOFRFLHQWHHQWUHODVFRQFHQWUDFLRQHVGH12[ PHGLDDQXDOFDOFXODGD\PHGLGD (QODV)LJXUDV\VHSUHVHQWDQODVLVRSOHWDVGHODFRQFHQWUDFLyQPHGLDHQDLUHGH12[ JHQHUDGRV SRUHOWUDQVSRUWHDXWRPRWRUGHSDVDMHURVHQOD&LXGDGGH%XHQRV$LUHVFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHVDORVDxRV \ FDOFXODGDV SRU HO '$802' 6H REVHUYD OD LQIOXHQFLD GH ODV SULQFLSDOHV YtDV GH FLUFXODFLyQ YHKLFXODU GHO WUDQVSRUWH DXWRPRWRU GH SDVDMHURV FRQ YDORUHV Pi[LPRV HQ OD ]RQD GH &RQVWLWXFLyQ\PtQLPRVHQHOiUHDGHO$XWyGURPRGHOD&LXGDGGH%XHQRV$LUHV
)LJXUD,VRSOHWDVGHFRQFHQWUDFLyQPJP PHGLDDQXDOGH12[ SDUDHODxR
)LJXUD,VRSOHWDVGHFRQFHQWUDFLyQPJP PHGLDDQXDOGH12[ SDUDHODxR
&21&/86,21(6
'H OD DSOLFDFLyQ GHO '$802' D ODV HPLVLRQHV GH &2 \ GH 12[ SURYHQLHQWHV GH ORV YHKtFXORV GH WUDQVSRUWHDXWRPRWRUGHSDVDMHURVHQ%XHQRV$LUHVVHHQFXHQWUD x x
VX FRQWULEXFLyQ D OD FRQFHQWUDFLyQ GH &2 HQ DLUH HQ 7DOFDKXDQR HQWUH OD $Y &RUULHQWHV \ /DYDOOHHVWiHQWUH\FRQXQDXPHQWRUHODWLYRGHHVWHDSRUWHHQDxRVUHFLHQWHV VXFRQWULEXFLyQDODFRQFHQWUDFLyQGH12[HQOD$Y/DV+HUDV\2FDPSRVHHQFXHQWUDHQWUH \
$*5$'(&,0,(1726
(O SUHVHQWH WUDEDMR IXH SDUFLDOPHQWH ILQDQFLDGR SRU ORV 3UR\HFWRV 8%$; \ &21,&(73,3 5()(5(1&,$6
$U\D63DO$LU3ROOXWLRQ0HWHRURORJ\DQG'LVSHUVLRQ2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV,QF %HQDULH008UEDQ$LU3ROOXWLRQ0RGHOOLQJ7KH0DF0LOODQ3UHVV/WG %RJR + 0DUtQ 1HJUL 5 6DQ 5RPiQ ( &RQWLQXRXV PHDVXUHPHQW RI JDVHRXV SROOXWDQWV LQ %XHQRV$LUHV&LW\$WPRV(QY %RJR + *yPH] '5 5HLFK 6/ 1HJUL 50 DQG 6DQ 5RPiQ ( 7UDIILF SROOXWLRQ LQ D GRZQWRZQVLWHRI%XHQRV$LUHV&LW\$WPRV(QYLURQ *RELHUQRGHOD&LXGDGGH%XHQRV$LUHV$QXDULR&DStWXOR7HUULWRULRFOLPD\DPELHQWH 6HFUHWDUtDGH+DFLHQGD\)LQDQ]DV*&%$ +DQQD 65 %ULJJV *$ DQG +RVNHU 5 3 +DQGERRN RI $WPRVSKHULF 'LIIXVLRQ 86 'HSDUWPHQWRI(QHUJ\7HFKQLFDO,QIRUPDWLRQ&HQWHU2DN5LGJH71 0D]]HR 1$ 9HQHJDV /( 0RGHOR GH GLIXVLyQ DWPRVIpULFD XUEDQD (Q $FWDV ,, &RQJUHVR ,QWHUDPHULFDQRGH0HWHRURORJtD%XHQRV$LUHVS 0D]]HR 1$ 9HQHJDV /( 6LPXODFLyQ GH OD GLIXVLyQ DWPRVIpULFD XUEDQD (Q $QDLV 9 &RQJUHVVR%UDVLOHLURGH0HWHRURORJLD5tRGH-DQHLUR%UDVLOS;,;, 0D]]HR1$DQG9HQHJDV/($LUSROOXWLRQPRGHOIRUDQXUEDQDUHD$WPRVSKHULF5HVHDUFK 0D]]HR1$DQG9HQHJDV/($QDQDO\VLVRIFDUERQPRQR[LGHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQDWPRVSKHUH RI %XHQRV $LUHV &LW\ $UJHQWLQH 5HSXEOLF 3URF WK :RUOG &OHDQ $LU DQG (QYLURQPHQW &RQJUHVV 'XUEDQ6RXWK$IULFD9RO 0D]]HR 1$ \ 7RUUHV 9LODU & (PLVLRQHV D OD DWPyVIHUD GH %XHQRV $LUHV $UJHQWLQD GH PRQy[LGR GH FDUERQR GLy[LGR GH QLWUyJHQR KLGURFDUEXURV \ PDWHULDO SDUWLFXODGR RULJLQDGRV SRU HO WUDQVSRUWH DXWRPRWRU GH SDVDMHURV (Q $QDLV ;, &RQJUHVVR %UDVLOHLUR GH 0HWHRURORJLD 5tR GH -DQHLUR%UDVLO 0D]]HR1$\7RUUHV9LODU&&RQWDPLQDQWHVHPLWLGRVSRUYHKtFXORVGHOWUDQVSRUWHDXWRPRWRU GHSDVDMHURVHQOD&LXGDGGH%XHQRV$LUHV9,,,&21*5(0(7\,;&/,0(7 0D]]HR1$\9HQHJDV/(&RQFHQWUDFLyQGH&2HQ%XHQRV$LUHVIDFWRUHVYLQFXODGRVFRQ VXYDULDFLy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yQ GH OD FRQFHQWUDFLyQ GH IRQGR \ GHO GHSyVLWR HQ iUHDVXUEDQDV(Q$QDLV;,&RQJUHVVR%UDVLOHLURGH0HWHRURORJLD5tRGH-DQHLUR%UDVLO 9HQHJDV /( DQG 0D]]HR 1$ $SOLFDFLyQ GHO PRGHOR '$802' D ODV HPLVLRQHV GH FRQWDPLQDQWHVSURYHQLHQWHVGHOWUDQVSRUWHDXWRPRWRUGHSDVDMHURVHQOD&LXGDGGH%XHQRV$LUHV9,,, &21*5(0(7\,;&/,0(7 9HQHJDV /( DQG 0D]]HR 1$ $Q HYDOXDWLRQ RI '$802' PRGHO LQ HVWLPDWLQJ XUEDQ EDFNJURXQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQV,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI:DWHU$LUDQG6RLO3ROOXWLRQHQSUHQVD :LHULQJD - $ UHYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH .DQVDV PDVW LQIOXHQFH RQ PHDVXUHPHQWV RI VWUHVV DQG FXS DQHPRPHWHURYHUVSHHGLQJ%RXQGDU\/D\HU0HWHRUROS