Data Are From Energy Information Administration October 2008 International

Data are from Energy Information Administration October 2008 International Petroleum Monthly as posted: November 7, 2008 Next Update: Early December 2008 World Oil Supply, Broadly Defined Thousands of Production in 12-month SUM barrels per day Billions of in Billions from Table 1.4 Barrels of barrels

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

74,158 75,654 74,840 77,762 77,684 76,989 79,601 83,105 84,561 84,521 84,405

Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03

78,181 78,053 78,765 77,766 77,264 75,867 77,866 78,106 77,626 77,577 77,864 77,257 76,396 76,522 76,315 75,879 76,725 76,529 76,987 76,783 77,323 78,751 78,849 76,777 77,305 79,051 79,529 78,485 78,662 78,009 78,884 79,436 80,341 81,275 81,448

2.42361 2.18549 2.44172 2.33299 2.39519 2.27600 2.41385 2.42128 2.32878 2.40489 2.33592 2.39496 2.36829 2.14261 2.36577 2.27638 2.37849 2.29588 2.38660 2.38027 2.31969 2.44128 2.36548 2.38010 2.39645 2.21343 2.46539 2.35456 2.43853 2.34027 2.44539 2.46253 2.41023 2.51952 2.44344

Crude Oil (Including Lease Condensate) Thousands of Production in barrels per day Billions of from Table 1.1d Barrels

27.068 27.614 27.316 28.461 28.355 28.101 29.055 30.416 30.865 30.850 30.808

65,744 66,966 65,922 68,495 68,101 67,162 69,434 72,493 73,737 73,461 73,015

28.355 28.299 28.256 28.181 28.124 28.107 28.127 28.100 28.059 28.050 28.086 28.116 28.101 28.129 28.200 28.299 28.378 28.438 28.482 28.541 28.623 28.714 28.792 28.870

69,156 68,685 69,352 68,421 67,736 66,177 68,111 68,290 67,822 67,722 68,077 67,659 66,807 66,900 66,701 66,180 66,758 66,612 67,071 66,797 67,333 68,742 68,840 67,182 67,726 69,313 69,851 68,766 68,768 67,954 68,573 69,028 69,693 70,598 70,829

2.14383 1.92319 2.14990 2.05264 2.09983 1.98531 2.11143 2.11698 2.03465 2.09937 2.04230 2.09743 2.07101 1.87320 2.06775 1.98539 2.06949 1.99836 2.07921 2.07070 2.02000 2.13101 2.06521 2.08264 2.09951 1.94077 2.16537 2.06299 2.13180 2.03861 2.12578 2.13988 2.09079 2.18853 2.12487

Energy Information Administration / International Petroleum Monthly November 2006

Dec-03

82,735

2.56480

29.055

72,087

2.23470

Energy Information Administration / International Petroleum Monthly November 2006

Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

E E E E E E E E PE

82,198 82,195 81,981 81,819 81,573 83,560 84,156 83,199 83,772 84,578 84,379 83,827 84,031 84,406 84,524 84,900 85,322 84,840 84,475 84,764 84,053 84,045 84,782 84,590 84,474 84,437 83,991 84,334 84,155 84,044 85,388 85,121 84,671 84,969 84,504 84,141 83,868 84,069 83,869 84,338 84,079 84,093 84,487 83,769 84,441 85,305 85,072 85,443 85,180 85,341 85,438 85,092 85,960 85,873 86,863 85,835 84,312

2.54812 2.38365 2.54141 2.45456 2.52877 2.50679 2.60884 2.57916 2.51315 2.62190 2.53136 2.59864 2.60495 2.36337 2.62024 2.54701 2.64497 2.54520 2.61874 2.62768 2.52160 2.60539 2.54347 2.62230 2.61869 2.36425 2.60372 2.53001 2.60882 2.52131 2.64702 2.63874 2.54014 2.63405 2.53512 2.60838 2.59991 2.35394 2.59994 2.53014 2.60644 2.52279 2.61909 2.59683 2.53323 2.64445 2.55215 2.64874 2.64059 2.47489 2.64859 2.55275 2.66476 2.57618 2.69277 2.66089 2.52937

29.206 29.376 29.452 29.552 29.643 29.809 29.973 30.089 30.192 30.295 30.383 30.416 30.473 30.453 30.532 30.624 30.740 30.779 30.789 30.837 30.846 30.829 30.841 30.865 30.879 30.880 30.863 30.846 30.810 30.786 30.814 30.825 30.844 30.873 30.864 30.850 30.831 30.821 30.817 30.817 30.815 30.817 30.789 30.747 30.740 30.750 30.767 30.808 30.848 30.969 31.018 31.041 31.099 31.152 31.226 31.290 31.286

71,790 71,770 71,716 71,684 71,363 72,958 73,410 72,381 73,002 73,623 73,286 72,917 73,202 73,481 73,800 74,082 74,241 73,859 73,700 73,736 73,301 73,396 73,869 74,157 73,673 73,583 73,419 73,507 73,068 72,976 73,997 73,677 73,390 73,730 73,362 73,141 72,798 73,045 72,972 73,217 72,741 72,345 72,866 72,221 73,025 73,686 73,392 73,871 73,910 74,083 74,184 73,738 74,144 74,122 74,885 73,727 72,820

2.22549 2.08134 2.22320 2.15052 2.21226 2.18873 2.27572 2.24380 2.19006 2.28232 2.19858 2.26044 2.26926 2.05747 2.28779 2.22247 2.30147 2.21576 2.28470 2.28580 2.19904 2.27527 2.21606 2.29886 2.28386 2.06033 2.27600 2.20522 2.26511 2.18927 2.29390 2.28398 2.20169 2.28564 2.20085 2.26737 2.25674 2.04525 2.26212 2.19651 2.25499 2.17036 2.25886 2.23884 2.19075 2.28427 2.20175 2.28999 2.29121 2.14840 2.29969 2.21214 2.29845 2.22367 2.32142 2.28552 2.18459

Energy Information Administration / International Petroleum Monthly November 2006

"Oil Supply" is defined as the production of crude oil (including lease condensate), natural gas plant liquids, an For definitions of these terms see http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/appc.html ( I have set the extremes in this Excel file in Bold red ) E = Estimate PE = Preliminary Estimate ( Even data not marked in these ways may be subject to revision Data revised in the most recent report are in bold italic font.

Energy Information Administration / International Petroleum Monthly November 2006

g Lease Condensate) 12-month SUM in Billions of barrels

23.996 24.442 24.062 25.069 24.857 24.514 25.344 26.532 26.914 26.813 26.650

24.857 24.784 24.734 24.652 24.585 24.554 24.567 24.535 24.489 24.474 24.506 24.529 24.514 24.542 24.610 24.708 24.785 24.848 24.888 24.934 25.004 25.074 25.132 25.192

Percent of total supply

Natural Gas Plant Liquids Thousands of Production in 12-month SUM barrels / day Billions of in Billions from Table 1.3 Barrels of barrels

88.65% 88.52% 88.08% 88.08% 87.66% 87.24% 87.23% 87.23% 87.20% 86.91% 86.51%

5,914 6,062 6,237 6,466 6,766 6,877 7,152 7,393 7,654 7,795 7,959

87.66% 87.58% 87.53% 87.48% 87.42% 87.36% 87.34% 87.31% 87.28% 87.25% 87.25% 87.24% 87.24% 87.25% 87.27% 87.31% 87.34% 87.38% 87.38% 87.36% 87.35% 87.33% 87.29% 87.26%

6,387 6,684 6,799 6,722 6,735 6,775 6,766 6,840 6,846 6,845 7,002 6,798 6,836 6,916 6,891 6,901 6,892 6,811 6,775 6,832 6,868 6,972 7,011 6,824 6,868 7,073 6,984 6,947 6,776 6,898 7,101 7,164 7,238 7,535 7,614

2.159 2.213 2.277 2.366 2.470 2.510 2.611 2.706 2.794 2.845 2.905

0.19799 0.18714 0.21078 0.20167 0.20879 0.20326 0.20973 0.21205 0.20537 0.21219 0.21006 0.21073 0.21191 0.19364 0.21361 0.20704 0.21364 0.20433 0.21001 0.21179 0.20604 0.21615 0.21034 0.21155 0.21291 0.19805 0.21652 0.20841 0.21007 0.20695 0.22014 0.22210 0.21715 0.23360 0.22842

2.470 2.484 2.490 2.493 2.498 2.503 2.504 2.505 2.504 2.505 2.509 2.509 2.510 2.511 2.515 2.518 2.520 2.516 2.519 2.529 2.539 2.550 2.568 2.586

Percent of total supply

Other Liquids + Processing Thousands of barrels / day C-(G+K)

7.98% 8.01% 8.33% 8.31% 8.71% 8.93% 8.99% 8.90% 9.05% 9.22% 9.43%

2,500 2,627 2,680 2,802 2,817 2,950 3,015 3,219 3,171 3,265 3,431

8.71% 8.78% 8.81% 8.85% 8.88% 8.91% 8.90% 8.91% 8.93% 8.93% 8.93% 8.92% 8.93% 8.93% 8.92% 8.90% 8.88% 8.85% 8.84% 8.86% 8.87% 8.88% 8.92% 8.96%

2,638 2,684 2,614 2,622 2,793 2,914 2,990 2,976 2,959 3,011 2,785 2,800 2,754 2,706 2,723 2,798 3,076 3,106 3,141 3,154 3,122 3,036 2,998 2,771 2,711 2,665 2,694 2,772 3,118 3,157 3,209 3,244 3,410 3,142 3,005

Energy Information Administration / International Petroleum Monthly November 2006

25.344

87.23%

7,624

0.23634

2.611

8.99%

Energy Information Administration / International Petroleum Monthly November 2006

3,024

25.470 25.610 25.668 25.755 25.836 25.986 26.136 26.240 26.339 26.433 26.507 26.532 26.576 26.552 26.617 26.689 26.778 26.805 26.814 26.856 26.865 26.858 26.876 26.914 26.929 26.931 26.920 26.902 26.866 26.840 26.849 26.847 26.850 26.860 26.845 26.813 26.786 26.771 26.757 26.748 26.738 26.719 26.684 26.639 26.628 26.627 26.628 26.650 26.685 26.788 26.826 26.841 26.885 26.938 27.001 27.047 27.041

87.21% 87.18% 87.15% 87.15% 87.16% 87.17% 87.20% 87.21% 87.24% 87.25% 87.24% 87.23% 87.21% 87.19% 87.18% 87.15% 87.11% 87.09% 87.09% 87.09% 87.10% 87.12% 87.14% 87.20% 87.21% 87.21% 87.22% 87.22% 87.20% 87.18% 87.13% 87.09% 87.05% 87.00% 86.98% 86.91% 86.88% 86.86% 86.82% 86.80% 86.77% 86.70% 86.67% 86.64% 86.62% 86.59% 86.55% 86.51% 86.50% 86.50% 86.48% 86.47% 86.45% 86.47% 86.47% 86.44% 86.43%

7,455 7,441 7,302 7,098 7,040 7,360 7,448 7,326 7,360 7,577 7,649 7,662 7,788 7,912 7,839 7,824 7,789 7,688 7,687 7,592 7,368 7,438 7,586 7,352 7,747 7,793 7,727 7,805 7,783 7,706 7,826 7,792 7,794 7,837 7,863 7,863 7,951 7,990 7,954 8,005 7,964 7,936 7,950 7,883 7,775 7,995 8,040 8,069 8,009 8,052 8,037 8,055 8,116 8,007 8,107 7,974 7,545

0.23111 0.21579 0.22636 0.21294 0.21825 0.22081 0.23088 0.22709 0.22081 0.23487 0.22948 0.23752 0.24142 0.22153 0.24301 0.23473 0.24145 0.23065 0.23829 0.23536 0.22103 0.23058 0.22759 0.22792 0.24016 0.21819 0.23954 0.23414 0.24126 0.23118 0.24262 0.24156 0.23381 0.24293 0.23589 0.24375 0.24648 0.22372 0.24656 0.24014 0.24687 0.23808 0.24645 0.24436 0.23324 0.24784 0.24121 0.25013 0.24828 0.23352 0.24914 0.24166 0.25161 0.24020 0.25133 0.24719 0.22635

2.629 2.647 2.656 2.661 2.669 2.683 2.694 2.699 2.702 2.704 2.705 2.706 2.716 2.722 2.739 2.760 2.784 2.793 2.801 2.809 2.809 2.805 2.803 2.794 2.792 2.789 2.785 2.785 2.785 2.785 2.790 2.796 2.809 2.821 2.829 2.845 2.851 2.857 2.864 2.870 2.876 2.882 2.886 2.889 2.888 2.893 2.899 2.905 2.907 2.917 2.919 2.921 2.926 2.928 2.933 2.935 2.928

9.00% 9.01% 9.02% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 8.99% 8.97% 8.95% 8.92% 8.90% 8.90% 8.91% 8.94% 8.97% 9.01% 9.06% 9.08% 9.10% 9.11% 9.11% 9.10% 9.09% 9.05% 9.04% 9.03% 9.03% 9.03% 9.04% 9.05% 9.05% 9.07% 9.11% 9.14% 9.17% 9.22% 9.25% 9.27% 9.29% 9.31% 9.33% 9.35% 9.37% 9.40% 9.40% 9.41% 9.42% 9.43% 9.42% 9.42% 9.41% 9.41% 9.41% 9.40% 9.39% 9.38% 9.36%

Energy Information Administration / International Petroleum Monthly November 2006

2,952 2,983 2,963 3,037 3,170 3,242 3,298 3,492 3,409 3,378 3,443 3,248 3,041 3,013 2,885 2,994 3,292 3,293 3,089 3,436 3,385 3,211 3,328 3,081 3,054 3,062 2,845 3,022 3,305 3,362 3,565 3,652 3,488 3,403 3,279 3,138 3,119 3,035 2,944 3,116 3,374 3,812 3,670 3,666 3,641 3,624 3,640 3,504 3,262 3,206 3,218 3,298 3,700 3,744 3,872 4,135 3,948

te), natural gas plant liquids, and other liquids, plus refinery processing gain (loss).

ways may be subject to revision )

Energy Information Administration / International Petroleum Monthly November 2006

her Liquids + Processing Gain (Loss) Production in 12-month SUM Billions of in Billions Barrels of barrels

0.08179 0.07517 0.08104 0.07867 0.08657 0.08743 0.09268 0.09224 0.08876 0.09333 0.08356 0.08679 0.08537 0.07577 0.08441 0.08394 0.09536 0.09319 0.09737 0.09778 0.09365 0.09412 0.08994 0.08591 0.08403 0.07461 0.08350 0.08315 0.09666 0.09471 0.09948 0.10055 0.10229 0.09740 0.09016

Percent of total supply

0.912 0.959 0.978 1.025 1.028 1.077 1.100 1.178 1.157 1.192 1.252

3.37% 3.47% 3.58% 3.60% 3.63% 3.83% 3.79% 3.87% 3.75% 3.86% 4.06%

1.028 1.032 1.032 1.036 1.041 1.050 1.055 1.060 1.066 1.071 1.071 1.078 1.077 1.075 1.074 1.073 1.073 1.074 1.075 1.078 1.080 1.089 1.092 1.092

3.63% 3.65% 3.65% 3.67% 3.70% 3.73% 3.75% 3.77% 3.80% 3.82% 3.81% 3.83% 3.83% 3.82% 3.81% 3.79% 3.78% 3.78% 3.78% 3.78% 3.77% 3.79% 3.79% 3.78%

Energy Information Administration / International Petroleum Monthly November 2006

0.09376

1.100

3.79%

Energy Information Administration / International Petroleum Monthly November 2006

0.09152 0.08652 0.09186 0.09110 0.09826 0.09726 0.10224 0.10827 0.10228 0.10471 0.10330 0.10068 0.09427 0.08437 0.08944 0.08982 0.10205 0.09880 0.09575 0.10652 0.10154 0.09954 0.09983 0.09552 0.09467 0.08573 0.08818 0.09065 0.10245 0.10087 0.11050 0.11320 0.10464 0.10548 0.09837 0.09726 0.09669 0.08498 0.09125 0.09348 0.10458 0.11436 0.11378 0.11364 0.10924 0.11234 0.10920 0.10862 0.10111 0.09297 0.09976 0.09894 0.11470 0.11232 0.12002 0.12817 0.11843

1.108 1.120 1.128 1.136 1.138 1.140 1.143 1.151 1.151 1.158 1.171 1.178 1.181 1.179 1.176 1.175 1.179 1.180 1.174 1.172 1.171 1.166 1.163 1.157 1.158 1.159 1.158 1.159 1.159 1.161 1.176 1.183 1.186 1.192 1.190 1.192 1.194 1.193 1.196 1.199 1.201 1.215 1.218 1.219 1.223 1.230 1.241 1.252 1.257 1.265 1.273 1.279 1.289 1.287 1.293 1.307 1.317

3.79% 3.81% 3.83% 3.84% 3.84% 3.82% 3.81% 3.82% 3.81% 3.82% 3.85% 3.87% 3.87% 3.87% 3.85% 3.84% 3.83% 3.83% 3.81% 3.80% 3.80% 3.78% 3.77% 3.75% 3.75% 3.75% 3.75% 3.76% 3.76% 3.77% 3.82% 3.84% 3.84% 3.86% 3.86% 3.86% 3.87% 3.87% 3.88% 3.89% 3.90% 3.94% 3.96% 3.96% 3.98% 4.00% 4.03% 4.06% 4.07% 4.08% 4.10% 4.12% 4.14% 4.13% 4.14% 4.18% 4.21%

Energy Information Administration / International Petroleum Monthly November 2006

Energy Information Administration / International Petroleum Monthly November 2006

World Oil Supply (Broadly Defined) Monthly Data in Thousands of Barrels a Day ( I doubt that we will ever exceed the Record level of July 2008 ) 90,000

87,500

85,000

82,500

80,000

77,500

75,000

72,500

M a y 0 8

J u n 0 7

J u l0 6

A u g 0 5

S e p 0 4

O c t0 3

N o v 0 2

D e c 0 1

70,000

0 8

Crude Oil + Condensate Monthly Data in Thousands of Barrels a Day ( I doubt that we will ever exceed the Record level of July 2008 ) 80,000

77,500

75,000

72,500

70,000

67,500

65,000

62,500

M a y 0 8

J u n 0 7

J u l0 6

A u g 0 5

S e p 0 4

O c t0 3

N o v 0 2

D e c 0 1

60,000

0 8

Natural Gas Plant Liquids Monthly Data in Thousands of Barrels a Day ( I suspect we will never exceed the Record level of May 2008 ) 20,000

17,500

15,000

12,500

10,000

7,500

5,000

2,500

A u g 0 8

A u g 0 3 J u n 0 4 A p r 0 5 F e b 0 6 D e c 0 6 O c t0 7

D e c 0 1 O c t0 2

0

u g 0 8

Dec-01 Feb-02 Apr-02 Jun-02 Aug-02 Oct-02 Dec-02 Feb-03 Apr-03 Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08

12-month Total of World Oil Supply (Broadly Defined) in Billions of Barrels ( I suspect we will never exceed the Record level of August 2008 )

32.5

32.0

31.5

31.0

30.5

30.0

29.5

29.0

28.5

28.0

27.5

Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08

Dec-01 Feb-02 Apr-02 Jun-02 Aug-02 Oct-02 Dec-02 Feb-03 Apr-03 Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08

12-month Total of Crude Oil Production (Including Lease Condensate) in Billions of barrels ( We may never exceed the Record level of August 2008 )

28.5

28.0

27.5

27.0

26.5

26.0

25.5

25.0

24.5

24.0

23.5

Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08

Aug-08

Jun-08

Apr-08

Feb-08

Dec-07

Oct-07

Aug-07

Jun-07

Apr-07

Feb-07

Dec-06

Oct-06

Aug-06

Jun-06

Apr-06

Feb-06

Dec-05

Oct-05

Aug-05

Jun-05

Apr-05

Feb-05

Dec-04

Oct-04

Aug-04

Jun-04

Apr-04

Feb-04

Dec-03

Oct-03

Aug-03

Jun-03

Apr-03

Feb-03

Dec-02

Oct-02

Aug-02

Jun-02

Apr-02

Feb-02

Dec-01

12-month Total of Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production in Billions of barrels ( We may never exceed the Record level of August 2008 )

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Aug-08

Jun-08

Apr-08

Feb-08

Aug-08

Jun-08

Apr-08

Feb-08

Dec-07

Oct-07

Aug-07

Jun-07

Apr-07

Feb-07

Dec-06

Oct-06

Aug-06

Jun-06

Apr-06

Feb-06

Dec-05

Oct-05

Aug-05

Jun-05

Apr-05

Feb-05

Dec-04

Oct-04

Aug-04

Jun-04

Apr-04

Feb-04

Dec-03

Oct-03

Aug-03

Jun-03

Apr-03

Feb-03

Dec-02

Oct-02

Aug-02

Jun-02

Apr-02

Feb-02

Dec-01

12-month Total of "Other Liquids" Production + Refinery Processing Gain (Loss) in Billions of barrels ( September 2008 is a new Record High )

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Aug-08

Jun-08

Apr-08

Feb-08

Crude+Condensate as % of Total Supply 90% 90% 89% 89% 88% 88% 87% 87% 86% 86% 85% 85% 84% 84% 83% 83% 82% 82% 81% 81% A u g 0 8

A u g 0 3 J u n 0 4 A p r 0 5 F e b 0 6 D e c 0 6 O c t0 7

D e c 0 1 O c t0 2

80%

0 8

NGPLs as % of Total Supply

Other Liquids and Processing Gain (Loss) as % of Total Supply 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% M a y 0 8

J u n 0 7

J u l0 6

A u g 0 5

S e p 0 4

O c t0 3

N o v 0 2

D e c 0 1

0%

0 8