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Rcitents

T N H E R E N C(Y1 / 1 ) ('ontcntion0nc is inhcrenc\ ]'he tlS is currcntl) usingtax blockson importsof costand cncrg) efficientsugarcane ethanolto ensurethat corn-based cthanolproduceddomcsticalllsta)s compctitivc . l a c LC h a n g M c C l a l c h \N e \ \ s p a p c r5\ J 2 0 0 t 1 B r a z i lc a n ' tl l n d * o r l d n r a r l ! ' l i r r i t se t h a n o l " httP: * \ $ .-uod pgl lilieproducl i()ns.con) lbrull)l nr!'ssagc5l1g05 T h e e t h a n ogl i a n t :o f s o u t h e a s t ctrsnr a z ihl a v et r a n s f o r m ehdo r r I S 5 n r i l l i o nr e s i d e n losl t h i sS e u t hA [ ] e r i u . r r n a t i o np o $ c l t h e i rc a r sa n dl r u c k s N . o N .t h c ) s a ) t h e l ' r cr c a d l 1 os t a nt h c s a m ee t h a n orlc \ o l u t i o ni n t h er c \ l u o r l d . r r ofthe i 1 ' o n l \t h c u o r l d i l l l e tt h c n ' rY. e t t h e r c : l o f l h e u o r l d d o c s n 'st e e ntro \ \ a n t\ \ h a lt h e B r a z i l i l n sh a \ e .l n t h e U n i t e dS t a t e sa. 5 i c c n t - D e r - g a l l ot n a r b l o c k sm o s t B r a z i l i a ne l h a n o lf r o n l r e a c h i n gU , S .c o n s u m e r sS. i n r i l atra r i f f .asl s ob l o c ka a c e s1s0E u r o p cC . h j n aa n do t h e rm a i i r re n e r g ) n r r r l e t sC . e t t i n q r i d o f s u c h l a r i f f \ . t s r a z i l i apnr o d u c c ' a r .rsg u e$. o u l d g i r e l h c n o r l d ] i h a l i l n e e d s chcaD.cleananden\ironmcntrllvfriendl\alternati\cfucl.Endingthctradebarricrsalso\rouldignitc ( ).n r l l r a z i l ' sr t h a p o l i n d u s t r \ a n d t u r n t h e c o u n t r \ i n ( o a m a i o r b i o f u e le \ n o r t c r .s a i dJ o s e( j o l d c r n b e r g . s t e ' a tdh. e U n i t e dS t a t c sc o n l i n u elso b l o c l I l r a z i l r a r t o l l h t ' l i r u n d c rosl - B r a z i l 'nsa l i o n a{ll h a n o lp r o i : r a n rI n \ \ h i c hp r o d u c e sn r u c hl e s se t h a n o lp er c ' t l t a n or rl h i l cb . r o s t i n@ gs i s s i o n sO. l h r r i c r c t h a n s u g a rd o e s c. u t si n l o f o ( ) ds u D D l i casn d d o c sl i t t l c t o r e d u c eg r e c n h o u s e - g ca m ( ( j L r r l r i easl ! o h a r e ' a r 0 i d eB d r a T i l i a rn' l h a n o li .n s l , i a L r irt .h:r r h e a tr.a p e s c cadn do t h c r c r o p s d ' \ 1 . ( ' r i n l e n l ri n (iLrliilsr.r pr,.reiuce lc:r biolirclperrrcrr. I hc mc\sil{!'doe\nt :cerr lrr bc:rl(ing throirgh.As norld ahrm q r ( , \ r so \ c r r i s i n gf o o d f r r i c e sa n d s h o r t a g e sr .n a n \ a r c h l a n l i n ge \ D r n d i n gb i o f u c l0 r l ) d u c t i o nl ( ] r lrirl']ging larnrlaDdlhat usrd to produce1bod.and Ilrazilianleadcrshare tbundthcrnsc'lres on thc deli:nsire aboulthcir celcbratcdbiotlel. The llrazilianshare hit backb1 p,rintingoLrlthal!!g4l-93!!:bglg!Lg!b!!9! i r n d t h c t J . S ,c. o r p - b a s c d \ a r i c t \ a r c $ o r l d s a D a r l .i l n d t h c D r o b l c n irs c o r n . n o t s u g a r .S c i e n c e isoll t h c i rs i d e .B e c a u spc r o d u c e rcsa nu \ . l h ! ' e n l i r es t r l l o l l h r ' s u g apr l a n tl o n r r k eb i o l u e l i.n \ l r ' a do l ' . i u stlh c kctttcl:tlJ.Illcctrrnirlanl.anacr('oJ.5u!.il.i]nei!)l]!.!I/i]pt'r'LJLtcc'lrbi'tlts()()sill|oJr(trJr'thntlI' o l c { ) r np f o d i r c e-si l 8 g a l l o n sT. h c s t a r c hl i o n rc r r r na l : o n r L r sble c o n \ c r l l d i n t os u g a rb c l i l c i t c a nb c t t r r r t c t j l n t oe t h a n o la. n c \ t r a s t c pt h a lr e q u i r eas b i g g c ri n v c \ r n t e ni nl c n c r g r ., \ s a r c s u l is. u g a rc a n re t h a n o l l n c r g lri r c r c r l I u l i l o l ' l o s s it li r c l s i n r c s t c d i n i t : p l o L J u c t i o n . r r h i l c l h c r a l i o i i , r c t r n r l r f o ( l i l cE c \u n i l : , r e c t l t a n t ti ls l . l l o l . \ o t o n l \ i s D r o d u c i n {s:u g a l c r n f ' l ) i l s e de t h x n o lm r r r ce f f i c i e n t [. ] r a z i l i a n o J l l c i a l -. . . r r . r c l r l i t l l c o l l h t c 0 u n t r r ' sf a r n r l a n di s u s c dt o n r o r l u r ci t . S u l i u i . ! r o \ \ 1 1o n l r o n l p c t c c n (l ) 1l l r a / i 1 . . . u . r h l sl a r r t li.r r d r r , . l lrirg L r r cssh o r r .

BiolirclsAff i,212

L N I)t 2k1i-9 I{esents

FAMINEADV ( 1 / 1 0 ) Contcntiontn o is faminc Gol ernmcntcthanolpolicicsare spikingfood priccsrr orld u idc Brol n '7

l l ! \ l c r - .l , , J u n . l c r & l , r r / o l ' l r o n h l b l i t l & \ \ o r l d N a t c h l n s l i lcur locllsh. c\ I\ ' i\n. 1 - n \ i r ( ) n n r c n l l ' r i z c & \ \ o r l l '\u\ indde li)r\lrturc(iolJ\lcdaI.Jan..1.I:adhI\llic1Insli1Ll1c..l)is1iIlcr\I)cnrndli)r(]rain I n \ c s t m e n ti n f u e l e l h a n o ld i s t i l l e r i e hs a ss o a r e ds i n c et h e l a t e - 1 0 0o5i l p r i c ch i k c s !. g . ! d a t ac o l l e c t i o ni n r l ne$ nn t h cn u n l b c o b c h i n dB . e c a u soc f i n a d c q u a tdca t ac o l l e c t i o o t h i : l a s t - c h a n g i ns g cctoh r a sf ' a l l e n l istillerieh s a sb e c n p l a n t :u, n d c fc o n s l r u c t i o tnh. c o u a n t i t \ o f g r a i n t h a t \ r i l l b c n e e d e df o r f u c l e t h a n o d iirc grain-imponing countries and food processol.s. cthanolinveslors. \ astl\ understalrd. I-anners.i'eeders. ( U S D A ) t h a t Droiccts b a s i n gd c ci s i o n so n i n c u n p l e l ed a t a (. I ) I h e U .S . D e p a r t m c nolf A g r i c u l l u r c distilleriesu ill rrquire onlr 60 nrillion (ons ol corn fritm the f008 har\csl.Uul hcrc at lIgElIlLIlqIgI I n s t i t u t e( L I ) l ) .\ ! e e s t i r l l a t teh a l d i s t i l l c r i e \sr i l l n c c d 1 3 9m i l l i o nt o n s n r o r ct h a n1 \ \ i c ei l \ m u c h . I [ - . ] ! ! ] q E l ) l c s t i m a t ci s a t a l l c l o s et o t h e m a r k . t h c e m c r g i n gc o m p e t i t i o nb c t \ t c c nc a r s a n d D c o D I lcb r g r a i n N i l l l i k c l \ d r i \ c $ o r l d g r a i n o r i c e st o l c \ e l sn e \ c r s e c nb c f o r e .I l t c k c l q u c s t i o nasr c :I l o u h i g hr r i l l g r . r i r r plicc: rise'l\\ hcn \rill rhc_qr_u1qlt ell1ql r\!Id rlhar ljll be the rritrlds idt' clli'ct ol'risin! lirod ni!!! l (l )t)nc leus1nlirl rhc lou t.Sl)A-p-elqctionis thal it \ras rclcil5g!in I cl.flrary100(r.uell b.li)r! !!t!llli'ql 01 slrrgrng llc\ofd rhr' | \l) \ rclrt.h!r\ il\ \'nrh. l distillctics r1iu lirll-t.3]1p4I!1I. oil p]ic1\(]1 jltLr::1jt1ql! tI fu

r t l t a , r l p l i t n r s' , r c r ci n l l t ep l l n t r i n gs t a g c . ttlh c a n do 11 0 0 6 .l l - l h c \ cl r a n s l a l icn l o c o n s l r u c l r o! l la n \ b e l \ \ e a r l . c na r t s l - 1 0 0 ( rt h . J u r r L r aI rur n J. l u n el ( ) . 1 0 0 i . i i l l h c s a r ) rr a t ct h a lp l a n t sd i d d u r i n gt h el l n a ls i r n t o n t h o r r t l d i r i o nla ll l i ! l i o r r a l l o n so f c a p a c i nr e u u i r i n 2 g ? _n r i l l i o nm o r et o r y o l ' g r 4 j rut i l l l i k e i r c o r n eo l l l i n c 1 l l h c I 0 0 8 h a r \ c s \l . i ! , . ! h i s r a i s e s t h ceo r nn l l t d l d l b l d l s l l l l g t f I ! I - l 9 n r i l l i o r r r ) l c n r l ) !l' .f l 0 0 l i . l h ! ' s l a r o l()ns.lrall'lh('l00lJllar\erl lrlqicqledb) L.:SDA.fhis \\ould \icld nearl) l5 billiongallql:!],!1lu!! ( A. n d t h i se s t i m a tdc o c sn o l i n c l u d ea n ] p l a n t ss t a n c da f t e rJ u n c : r r i r l l i n g6 p e r c c nor 1 ' I i . Sa. u t ol l e l n e ' q d 5 .10.1007.rhal rrould be llnishedin rinrcto drarr ()nllrc l(X)lJhanr'51.)(7) II!-q!.p.8!C4-q4gg j j]lllb l h c \ r o r l d ' s l e a d i n eg r a i n c r o Dt o t h c p r o d u c t i o no f f u c l $ i l l a f f e c tf o o d p r i c e se \ e r \ $ h e r e . A s t h c \ r o r l d c o r n D r i c er i s e s s. o t o o d o t h o s eo f \ 1 h c a ta n d r i c e .b o t h b e c a u s o c f c o n s u m e rs u b s t i t u t i o na m o n g

s u D D l Y i n7g0 D e r c e not f t h e \ l o r l d ' s c o r n e r D o r t s .l o o m sl a r { : ei n t h e r a o r l df o o de c o n o m \ ,A n n u a l U . S gg4-g1pp419ofsome 55 nrilliontons . Thc corn grain harvcstol produccr. c\cceds the entirc harrcstof lorra alone.u hich edgesout Illinoisasthe leading \ r ' orld h c $ a v e s t h r o u q h o u t C a n a d aS- u b s t a n t i a l l r\ e d u c i n gt h i s e x p o r tf l o \ l i o u l d s c n ds h o c k cconom\''(9)Rrl'grunlcr.llt\rS1rl.L]dr\crsll\ecot..nr|.IcI)oil|all0q!.

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FAMTNE ADV(2/10) T h c c o m p e l i t i o nf o r g r a i n b c t \ r e e nt h e n o r l d ' s l l ( ) 0m i l l i o nm o t o r i s t s$ h o r r a n (t o n r a i n t a ilnh e i fn t o b i l i l ) . oaring a n d i t s 2 b i l l i o n D o o r e sD t C o D lneh o a r e s i m D l \t r \ i n g t o s u r v i \e i s e m e r g i n ga s a n e o i c i s s u c S food Dricescould lead to urban food riots in scoresof lo$er-incomecountricsthat relv on grain i m o o r t s .s u c ha s I n d o n e s i aE. g r D t .A l s e r i a .N i g e r i a .a n d M e r i c o .T h e r e s u l l i n go o l i t i c a li n s t a b i l i t r c o u l d i n t u r n d i s r u o tp l o b a lc c o n o m i co r o € r e s sd. i r c c l l \ a f f e c t i n ga l l c o u n t r i e sl.l i s n o l o n l ) f o o dp r i c c s l h a ta r ea t s t a k eb. u t t r c n d si n t h e N i k k c i I n d e r a n d t h e D o \ r J o n c s5 0 0a s \ e l l . 1l ( r ) lhef'nI(illl(rnlti\C\lL'cIeal|n!:ilel(.|'hascdiu1()lnoli\.ILl.lci(nj|I\ .'lpn||e5|\t\!onrIagl'rLl|lle1ha|l()|c(lu]dhcl.h|c\e.]\.\.rl|r1mc\o\(r.JndJ(Jlracl|olj(l,'lhe.{,slh\rl|L5l!jU(j1ilclc|f.l.i].\ . r l n d r r d .h \ : l l p c r . r n r ( l r ) l l \ \ c s h l l ( , g a \ - c l e e t r i h \ b r L J p l u S - r n c n r . , , \ u r r h r n r \ l d c . r d .$ c ( ( , u l dh r d ( , r n gs h o r l ' d r \ l . u r c c dl|\|l!'such35lhcdl]]\.L'ln]]UtLor!I()!cr\Shopprng.\|lhc|..trl.|l\l1\\tthcn|n\cjt(dl'lthiltrJand\l.liidfar c l ( c t n c r r r\ n l o l h c g f l d .l S . x r \ ( ( i u L d r L n r p n n r a f l l \ o n r \ r n d t n e r g \ r n d a t l h c g a n r l r nccq u r \ : l l c noll l c s \ l h a n $ l r g . t l l o n l h . ' M . . r \ \ r l l i r r r . r a h p r o g r a mt o h c l n l ] c t r o i l s \ i t c h t o g a \ - c l c . l n ch \ h n ( l p l u g - r nc i u \ ( 1 8 ) I t r . t i n r cI i i r a n x r r a l ( i r i u

1 . r r ' r l u tctcl r r n o ll r o l l lc c l l u l t , ' i \! r u r . c i \ u c h a \ \ \ i l . h s r a s ' . 1 l . . J ' 1 , , . 1t,h a li s n l r lu s e dl ( r rl i ) o t il l 9 ) Lh!$lj]|jd(\nclelcl\l1ecti'l'|r.ll.!\I..|.Jlt\il|ll|lc.IllC|!|l\!I.\'.j'|lr|lht|1l]e.@

r \ D o r l e r .a n d c t h a p o lD r r ) d u c e rt h . e U n i l c ( si r a t e \i 1 i r ) t h e d r i \ c r ' s s c r l . \ \ ' c n c e dl o n r a k cs u r el h n l i n lf\inglos0|\co|]cFr(rb|enl()[email protected]|nl(l|cseri(|Il\()ll('] c h a o ri n t h c $ o r l d f o o d c ( o n o n l \ ;( 1 0)

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cNDtlk8-9 Resents

FAMTNE ADV(3/10) I'ood priccsarc creatingpoliticalinstabilitl and lcadingto failedstatcs Bron n '7 ( L c s t c r -I.' o u n d c& r I ) r e zo 1 ' L a n hI ' o l i c l & W o r l d u a t c hl n s t i t u l e s\ \.' i n n c ro l ' t h c[ . 1 . NE. n v i r o n m e nPtr i z c& \ f o r l d \ \ i d c l i i r n dl b r ) , J a r u (r ico l d M e d a l .M a r c h2 1 . L a r t hP o l i c )I n s t i t u { e .! l a s s i ! cD i r c r s i o no l ' [ ] . S .G r a i nl o F u e lC a r s i s R a i s i n g\ \ o r l d I ' - o o d P r i c e s. h l t p : ' r r * * . e a r t h - p o l i c ) . o rUgp d a t c ls0 0 7 L , p d a t c 6 5 . h t n r ) I l ' r o u t h i n kl o u a r es p e n d i nngr o r ec a c hu e c k a t t h c s u p c m r a r k el ol .u r r a y b e r i g h t .T h e e s c a l a t i n sg h a r eo f t h e U . S .g r a i n h a r \ e s tg o i n gt o e t h a n o d l i s t i l l c r i c si s d r i v i n q u D f o o d D r i c e s$ o r l d $ i d c . C o r n p r i c c sh a v ed o u b l e do Y e rt h e l a s tY c a r ,$ h c a t f u l u r e sa r e t r a d i n ea t t h e i r h i g h e s tl c | e l i n l 0 rcars. and ricc nricesare rising too. In addition.solbcanfutureshaveriscnb1 half. A Bloonrberganalysis n o l e sl h a tt h e s o a r i n gu s eo f c o r n a s t h e f e e d s t o c fko r f u e l c t h a n o l" i s c r e a t i n gu n i n t c n d c dc o n s e o u e n c e s

up t)\ 60 nercent.AngrY Mexicansin cro$ds of uD to 75.000have taken to lhe strcetsin protesl. f o r c i n gt h e g o v e r n m e ntto i n s t i t u t eD r i c ec o n t r o l so n l o r t i l l a s@ . j1!9 lndir, and thc UnitcdStarcs.countricsthatcontain40 percentol thc \\orld s pcoplc.ld.Ulqg!g_t!_!_q!f c o r n i s e a t c nd i r e c l l \ i n t h e s ec o u n t r i e s\.a s l q u a n t i t i c sa r c c o n s u r n c idn d i r c c t l \ i n m e a t .m i l k . a n d e g g s i n b o t h( ' h i n aa n dt h c [ - l n i t e S d t a t c sR. i s i n gg r a i na n ds o rb e a np r i c c sa r cd r i r i n g u p n r e a al n de g gp r i c c si n ( ' l t i n a .J a n u a np o r kp r i c e sr l e r eu p 2 0 p c r c e nat b o \ ca l e a r c a r l i c re. g g s\ \ c r ! ' u p l 6 p e r c e n tu. h i l c b c e l . \ h i c h i : l c s : d e p ! ' n d c notn s r a i n .\ \ a su p 6 p c f c ! ' n lI.n l n d i a .t h e o r e r a l l f o o d p r i c c i n d c r i n . l a n u a n 2 0 0 i ' r \ a sl 0 D e r c e n hl i g h e rl h a na l e a r r a r l i e r .I - h ep r i c c o f u h c a t .t l r cs l a p l cl b o di n n o n h e r nl n d i a .h a s - j L r n t p r ' d l l p a f c c n tn. r o ri n ga b o r et h en o r l d n r a r k ept r i c e .l n t h r L , n i l c dS r a l c sl h . c I J . S .D c p a n n ' ] r 'o1l1Al g r i c u l l u r c p r o j c c t st h a tt h c r r h o i c s a lpcr i c eo f c h i c k e ni n 2 0 ( 1 7 r i i l l h e I 0 p c r c c nht i s h e ro n a r c r a s et h a ni n 1 0 0 6 .l h . p f i c ! ' o l i r d o r c ne s s s\ \ i l l b c u p a u h o p p i n g1 1 p c r c c n ta. n dn r i l ku i l l b c I . l p c r c e nht i g h e rA . n d t h i si s o n l l thcb - e'r.:innin I ng t. h c D a s t f. o o d D r i c cr i s e sh a \ e u s u a l l \ b c e n\ r c a t h c rr c l a f c da n d a l \ 1 a \ st e m D o r a r \ . T h i s s i t u a t i o ni s d i l t e r ! ' n t .A s m o r c a n d n o r c f u c l c t h a n o ld i s t i l l e r i e as r e t r u i l t .u o r l d g r a i n p r i c c sa r c o i l - e o u i r a l e nrta l u c i n r rh a t a tcrrn rise. The food and cncrg\ economics.historicallrscparatc. !lI!_!!I_lMgiIg. In lhis nc\\ econonr\. i f t h e f u c l \ a l u c o f g r a i n e x c e e dist s f o o d \ a l u e . t h c m a r k c t $ i l l m o \ e i t i n l o l h e e n e r g \ c c o n o m \ .A s t h e p r i c eo f o i l c l i n r b ss o * i l l t h e n r i c co f f o o d . S o m el 6 D e r c e not l t h c 2 0 0 6[ , . S .g r a i n h a r l e s t \ 1 a su s e dt o l i s t i l l e r i en s o $ u n d e rc o n s t r u c t i o ne.n o u g ht o m o r e t h a n D r o d u c ce t h a n o l .\ \ ' i t h 8 0 o r s o e t h a n o d d o u b l ce \ i s t i n { :c t h a n o lD r o d u c t i o nc a D a c i t rn. e a r l \ a t h i r d o f t h e 2 0 0 8g r a i n h a r r e s t$ i l l b e g o i n gt o c t h a n o l .S i n c et h c U n i t e dS t a t c si s t h e l e a d i n ee r D o r t e ro f g r a i n . s h i p p i n n g r o r et h a nC a n a d aA. u s t r a l i a . and ^rlcntina conrbincd.li hat haDpensto thc [].S. grain croD affectslhe entire rrorld. \\'ith the massi\e d i \ c r s i o no f g r a i n t o p r o d u c ef u e l f o r c a r s .e r p o r t s r l i l l d r o D . ' T h cu o r l d ' sb r c a d b a s kicsl f a s tb e c o n r i n g l l r r ' t t . S .l l c l l a n k . I h e n u m b c o r f h u n l n p e o p l ei n t h c u - o r l d h a sb e e nd e c l i n i n g f o r s e r , e r adlc c a d e sb.u t i n thc lale lg90s the trendrcrersedand the nuntberbcganto rise.flg_Unitcd lations currentlv lists 3.1 countriesas needingemergcnc\ food assistanccffi, including Chad. Iraq, Liberia. Haiti. and Zimbab$e. Sinccfood aid programsrypicalll havefixed budects.if the price ofgrain doubles,food aid rvillbc rcduccdb1 half. Urban food protestsin rcsponseto risins f(x)d pricesin lo$ffffimjMllgjounlries. such as Merico. could lead to political instabilit\ i h a t $ o u l d a d d t o t h e [ r o $ i n e l i s t o f f a i l e d a n d f a i l i n ss t a t e sA . t s o m ep o i n t .s p r e a d i n pp o l i t i c a l instabilit\ could disruDt global economicDroeressiAgainclthi\ backdrop.Washingtonis consunedu ilh ''ethanoleuphotia." President Bush in his Stateof the Union addressse1a productiongoal for l0l 7 of 35 b i l l i o ns a l l o n so f a l t c m a t i v feu e l s i. n c l u d i n g r a i n - b a s eadn dc e l l u l o s iect h a n o la, n dl i q u e f i e d c o a l .( i i v c n thc currentdifficultiesin producineccllulosicethanoiat a conlpetitivecostandgiventhe nrountingpubiic oppositionto liqucfiedcoal.u'hichis far more carbon-intensive thangasoline.n'tostofthe fuel to mcct this goal might \\cll haveto comelrom grain.'fhis couldtakentostofthe U.S.grainhar!c\1.lca\ inq linle grain to n]eelLj.S.needs,nruchlcssthoseofthc hundredor so countriestharintpongrain. The stageis no\r set for direct comDetitionfor grain betweenthe 800 million neoDlenho oun t e o p i e@ a u t o m o b i l e sa,n d t h e u o r l d ' s 2 b i l l i o np o o r e s p .

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FAMTNE ADV(4/10) Frilcd Statescausetcrrorism,civil * ars, discasc,and prolifcrati
' ' \ | , r l r r . l i r . l l i fr f J l l r ( l ' r { ) h l r r r , , , i \ \ . l\rl Lr l c ' . I c \ i . . . l r c o h I l n c r e a s i n g lhl .o r v c r c rt.h c m a i o r D o n e r sm u s t $ o r r r a b o u t b a d " c r l e r n a l i l i r s !l h a l r c \ u l t f r o m t h ( crrnrbination 01'thescicDlijlcre\olutionandp-ql-l[al-dj!9lgg. economiccollapsr'.and sngerin the third \ \ o r l d .T h e s ee r t e r n a l i t i e si n c l u d cr i s k so f c a t a s l r o D h i t( e r r o r i s mu s i n gw M D . r e f u q c cf l o r } s .h c a l i h threatse , n h a n c e dd r u g s n l u e e l i n sn e t w o r k sa. n d d i s r u p t i o no f o i l s u n n l i c sl.\ l a i o r p o \ r e r sc a n a l s o \uffer from destabilizineconsequences of Drotractcdci\ il ]rars for $ hole regiols. as neighboringstates \rcakcned regional for arc or incentives weaDonsacquisitionand Drolifcrationincreasc.Finalll. the' groundsas \\cll. presrureslbr inler\'cnlionon huntanilarian nrajorpo\lershavcfacedsienilicantandjL:stified Thesediffusc threats createa classiccollectiyeaction oroblcm for the maior Doners.Civen thc d a n g c r sD o s e db \ c o l l a p s c ds t a t e sa n d r o g u cr e g i m e si n a $ o r l d $ i t h W M D . o p e nc c o n o m i c sa.n d e a s \ i n t o r n a t i o n atlr a v c l .a l l \ r o u l d b e n e f i tf r o m D o l i t i c aol r d e r a n dr e s p o n s i b(l icf p o s s i b l cd. e r r o c r a t i c ) ! ( ) \ . r n r r c n l si n t h c p t ' ri p h t n R u l t h ec o s t st o p r o ri d ec l - l t c t i v se u p p o l i l r p o l i l i c ail) r d e ra n dd c r t t o c f a c \ , r l i . ' r. r. l u 1 cc o l l a I s c so l i c n! ' \ c ! ' ! ' dl h c c \ p c c l c db r ' n . ' l l l lsi ) l J n \ o n cl o \ c l . I l ) c l ( ) g r r( , 1 - l h issi t u a l i o tctt . , t t r . c cpul,'1r,. r n f ( . n l i \ f l o I b u r , l e ns h r l r i n ! A 1 .t i e c l e ds 1 ; [ c sl ] . r \ ca n i n e t ' n ( i r (co ' h a | c I h ce . r s l st o i n i t i - s i i l h .llrc : t r u c t u f co l t l l e l . . r J :o l \ 1 i l l !c' o l l a p s a c r r dr o g u cr c g i m e a s l a n . i c c c l , t a b pl cr i c el i r r c ' a c lor n ct t l l c , ' l l e c l i r ea c l i o np r o b l e ncr a nh c r c p r e s ! ' n l eadsl i r l l o r r sl:- c l b ' 0 b c l h ! ' e \ p c c l c Jl o n , r - r ucno \ l o l a s l a L r c i r l l u f s c1 oL ' a c h n t a i o rp i , ! \ c f .a l ] dl e tc . b l r et h c t o t a lt \ p e c t c dc o s lt r l ' r v n r e di r_t lr.i ]t . I l ' t h c r ca r cn s t a t e s \ \ i t h t h c s cf r r l c r c n c c sa n d i l c n b .t h c ' 1r r o u l da l l b c L r c t t corl l t r rs t l i k ca d c ' a il n * h i c h t h c r i o i r t t l l r ( ) r l r i b L l li.l l o l r l o l c l o t h . r c c o n s l r L r c t !i o ' l lni ) n .\ ! i t h e a c h( l n . c o n l f i b u t i l rnl lo n r o r al h a nh . O l ' c o u r s cl .h c r c i i u p o s s i b l r i n l c - n s e b a r 3 : r i n r D u p r o b l ! ' n r o \ ! ' r \ \ hf (o)\ni lllr i b L l h . t c . l i i n r cLs ) .I - e a r o n . l co $ n r u c hS 'liJr!aining. l r n l i ) r c e n r r nJrn. d l n t e n r l l i o n aCl o o p c r l r t i o nI.n' l c r n a l i ( mO a lr g a r ) i z i r l i o\ 'no.l . 5 ] . N r r .l h r S r c ap r S p I i n r 1 9 9 8 tp. p 1 6 9 - i 0 6 l n r u n r .i n t h c t i n r eo l c l a : s i c r i ln r p c r i a l i s lm l o \ \ ! ' f st h r ' ! ' a l c n e d ( r r t c h o l h e r $ h i l r l a c i n ! r ) o 5 r ' r i r ) ua\ u l o D o l r o uI sh r ! ' ; r lJi r r ) l ).r\ l l i c J .l h ! ' \ l i d d l c l : a s t r. r rl ] r o ' to l A s i a T o d n r . l r r ! r , n l f r i l i t. h e s t r o n e e srtn d r i c h c s ts t a t e sf a c en o s ! ' ri o u sr r i l i t a l l h r e a t sl i o n ro n ( a n o t h e rb. L r\l a r i o u s \ c c u l i t \ t h r c a t sf r o m a t h i r d \ r o r l d t h a t .a s I ' i g u r cI i l l u \ l r a l e s . .si su f f e r i n gf r o | l l \ i o l e n c ca n d c h a o s .I l e c a u s teh cc o s t so 1 ' a c l d r c s s li hr rc; [r] r l l i c a t i o n o s l s t a l ce o l l a p : ' , - 'tohrc d a n s c f \p o \ c . l l , r f o ! r r c| r ' g i n r t 'a: r ( ! o n ! ( ' n t l l i l a $d h i l t ' t h eb c n c l i t : . r | cr , l i c ni l i l l i r s et.h t n r a i o Ip t r r r c r ':] o \ \ c o n l i ( r nrL . , r l l r u t t l r l r c l i o np f o b l e t r\ \ h o \ . i n r c r n al lo g i cs h o L r llJa r o r r rt l l u l i i l l l . ' r ' .rtel s l - . o n : c .

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FAMTNE ADV(5/10) lncreascdFoodpriccstill causcmassstan'ationkilling 95% of the rrorld, Adams08 l rh. e B i o l i r c l sS c a n rI.r o o dS h o n a g casn dt h eCo n r i n gC o l l a p s e ol thc' [ ] V i k c .s t a l l\ \ r i t e rl b r n a t u r a l n e \ r s . c o" n hirll lJunranl'oIulurirrn"April 1j. 1008 hllD',{\!,!!aiUA[!!IJlt]rr023Cg1 So. to fepeat, the food bubblc is no$ startine to implodc. \\'hirt docs it all nrcan'l It nre2ltlsthal as t h c s c c c o n o n t i c a n d c l i m a t e r e a l i t i e s u n l b l d . o u r n o r l d i s f a c i n sm a s s i v cs t a n a t i o n a n d f o o d shortaqcs.Thc first Dlacethis \r ill be fclt is in Door develooinqnations.11is therethat pcoplelir c'on thc edqcoIr'conrrmicIivelihood.$he'rceveni! ]0ui' risc in thc price oj'basicfood staplescan put dcspcrirlel\ n c c d c dc a l o r i e o s u t r ) i r l a c h o f t c n so l m i l l i o n so f l a n r i l i e sI .1 ' s o n r c r h i insgn o t d o n e( l r c s c u et h c s cp e o p l e l r o l nt h c i rp l i i t h l .t h e \ \ \ i l l s l a r \ el o d c a t h \. \ ' e a l t h )r a t i o n sl i k e A n r c r i c aC. a n a d al h . c L l . K . .a n do t h c | su i l l be ab[' ro absorbthe price incrcases. so ]ou \\on l secnlassstar\ationin Nonh Anrericaan) linle soorl ( u n l c s \o. l c o u r s ca. l l l h c h o n c \ b e edsi e .i n r r i i c h c a s cf i r c p a r 1 ) .r il 1\ \ i l l c 0s l l n c h o r i n gy o u rs h o c l a c e s . .b. L I t a d t r rr i s r i i l c a n li n c r c a s ei n s t h cc o s tr r l l i v i n g .l r n n o irn l c o n s u n r c irns, . lr c ' d t r c i nl hg c n r o l r nol l r l o n f \ .rr.ri|lr[l|cIilr()lh!'II]il|cl1a\es(|ikc\ilfilti(lI]\.cars.Iil.l.ctc;lhat.rrIcottrsc.rrillprttr.Irlrrttlia.I l l r en a l l ! ) n aclc o n o n t \ . I : l u \t \ h r l \ \ c ' r es c c i n gr i g h tn o \ . l i r l k s .i s . i u sal s n r a l l b r e s h a d o \ \ i nogl ' c \ e n l s1 0c o r l c i n t h en e \ l e o u p l co l ' d e c l d r - ' sI h i n k a b o u ti l ; l i ' t h e s cn r i n o rc l i r l a t ec h a n u ca\ n df o o l i s hb i o f u e l sD o l i c i c \ r e a l r c a d v u n l c r \ h i n sr l a r m i n g r i s c si n l b o d D r i c e si.u s t i m a g i n c\ i h a l \ r c ' l l s c c\ r h c n P r a k C ) i lk i c k si n a p d g l o b a l o i l ! u o n l i c \r e a l l \s t n r tt o d \ r i n d l r .\ \ ' h c n g a s o l i n ei s 5 l ( ) r Lg a l l o r ti n t h c [ . S . - h o u c r p c r r r i r rei l l l i r n d b c a r o u n d t h e u o r l d ' . )T h c a n s r r c r -o l c o u r s L - i. s t h a t i l \ r i l l h c t r i n l c o r q u a d r u D l ct h c c u r r c n t D r i c e .A n d t h n t m c a n rm a r l \ n o r e D c o D l \ci i l l s t a r \e . I ' o s s i l i r c l : .o 1 - c o u r sar -r '!.' n \ 1 h e o n l ) l i n r i t i n gl a c t o r h l c a t e n i nl gl t L t r et i r L xsl u p ; - . l i (e,rno L r r p l l n ! ' tI:h e r c5 a1:rlj,l...i]\\i]l.r'l.ha1\\.ilcr]l'on]und!'l'l]Iotlndlrqrri1i'lsthal':htinlptrnlpctlU1()lh.5ui1ic|'l()\\il!'| t t L r p st.l t q nt l r l o s lt r tt r u P o r a l i i r rL. L ) u n t r i 1l i5k c l n L l i a . i nC d h i n . ru r cd c l l c r r d i nhl e l r i I o n 1 o : . i 1r i l r t c rt r r t r r i l a t ct h e i rc r o p s a. D dn o t s u r p r i s i n g ltrh. e\ \ ' a l e irc r c l si n t h o s e ' a q u i l cirssd r o p p i n is. t: c a d i l l l. n . r f c \ \ n r r r r c \ e l i r \ ( i l \ I i l tl a a s i i r c l c a r s i n s o m cc t \ e \ ) .t h i t t\ \ a t e r\ \ i l l s i t p l r r u n d 4 . a n dt h cc r o p st l t a l\ \ c f c o | ] c ! ' r t - r ' i L : r lttrJrl c t J a n a t i o l \ \ i l l d n u p i l n di u r | l o d u \ t .\ l a \ s s l a r \ t t i o n \ \ i l l { ) n l \ t a l e a f f u m o n ( h st o k i c k i n l l ) i r r l \ o n h K o r c Jn l l . i r s c a : o ror l l l , r o d sl.) r ' r l r . r p9'5 o l ,o f h u m a n i l \ i s i u r t r ) n cc r o Ds c a s o nx \ i r \ l i ( , r t tn ti l \ \ s l t r \ : l t i o n .

( ND t l k 8 - 9 Rc{cnls

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FAMTNE ADV(6/10) Food scarcif.r'leadsto \\'orld \l'ar -l ('alvin 98 \\l]ianlll'(]a|\jn'll).ore1ical\curophl:irrlrrr-i:l1/thc(ni\cl\|l\oI.\\ashingttrlrJnulrl|998. l h i ' , \ l l a n l i\!' { o n l h l2\ 8 1 ( l ) : 1 7 - 6 1 . h I\l !pi :l l i r m c l l \ i r . c o n1 r9 9 0 ls( ) 9 l l r \ l l i r n l i . a l i m a t c{. C h l(n: 6 l .. l l l 0 7 . n o n l i n . l h e p o p u l a t i o n - c r assqhc n a r i ios s u r c Nt h e o s t a p p a l l j n g . P l u m m c t i n t c r o p r i c l d s r 1ri:lal u s es o m e D o l r e r f u cl o u n l r i e sl o t r v t o l a I e o \ e r t h c i r n c i g h b o r so r d i s t a nlta n d \ i f o n l \ b e r a u s el h c i r a r m i c s . unDaidand lacling food. lrill eo plaraudinq.both at honle and acro\s lhe bordcrs. Thc'!4!3I: o r g a n i z c dc o u n t r i c sr i i l l a l t e n D t t o u s €t h e i r a r m i c s ,b e f o r ct h c l f a l l a n a r t e n t i r c l \ ' t. o t a k eo v c r c o un t r i c s$ i t h s i g n i f i c a nrt e m a i n i n gr e s o ur c e s .d r i | i n s o u t o r s t ar \ i n g t h e i r i nh a b i t a n t !i f n o t u s i n g l l l o d c r n\ i c a D o n st o a c c o m D l i sthh e s a m ec n d : e l i m i n a t i n gc o m D c t i t o rfso r t h e r e m a i n i n gf o o d .T h i s $ ill bc a rrorld$ ide problen andcould easih lead lo a Third World \'\'ar but I-lurope's vulncrabilitl i\ panicularl)easr lrr analrze.l-h0lir\r abruptcoolina.lhe YoungcrDryas.drasticalllaltr're'Li liuropc's c l i n t . r tac sl i r I c a s la s I l l r a i n c .P r r s e n l - r j al iru r o p ch a r n r r r c ' 1 h a(nr j ( )n r i l l i r r ln! ' o p l c .l l h a se r r : e ' l l c n so t ils. t i t t Jl . u g c hL r ( ) \ \ \i t : o \ \ n 1 b t r dl.t c o u l dn o I o n g c r l L r : oi l i t l r r s 1t 1 rcc\ t r i l \ \ a n l i n g I i t ' n rt l t c\ o r t h A t l i t n t i c

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r i r c r - , r . r ! J c n c j r d . rA c cs . l o n g a s t h c U n i t e d S t a t c s r e n r a i n sa l a r g c o i l c o n s u m e r a n d a s l o n g a s t h e priccs ofoil and netroleum products arc ultinratelr sct on rlorld markcts. the [].S. econonrt uill b c h o b b l e d b v h i g h D r i c e sa n d s u s c e D t i b l et o t h e n e g a t i re c o n s e q u e n c c so f t h e o i l s u n n h d i s r u n t i o n s i \ \ h e r c v c rt h c \ t l t a ) o c c u r .A s o n c c \ p c r 1 h a s u r i 1 1 e n . o u r n a t i o n ' s c c o n o m i c r ulncrabilitr to the oil price is largeh a funclion of hou much oil l c usc and not hol nruch n c n r o d u c e . " l - h u s t h c n t o s t e f f c c t i l c n a v t o r c d u c c t h c e c o n o m i c c o s t sa n d r i s k s o f f o r c i g n o i l d e n e n < l c n c ci s l o r e d u c e U . S . o i l d e p e n d e n c er r , . r r! .c n . r n l l \r. c g e r , l l co: l' i l : : o r r r c c. \ \ . r r . r . r ) rr e f ( ' , 1 ( )rrt ) c \ljhj.e(n(ll.d..'ina!|ohaln1^rk.t.1hcbcnell1\o1.ca!hhlrr'r'c|rrl.incrcascddor]]c\li.nroducl1onarc5hercb\ |l)ll]l|ll|l](ll]\Lhr{)u!halo\\.reqLlllrbriLl|lrrjcc.$hcrcd.

rho:crrholiarc lcsstncd thciroil uscBgdlgilg_lilgi.Ugpg11lglsg acrossrhe boald could har e a n u n t b c ro l e c t t n o m i cb c n c f i t s I. i i I s t .i t \ \ o u l d n r o s tl i k c l r r e s u l ti n a d e c l i n ei n A n t c r i c a ri r l r p o r l (\ r l ' o i l a n dp c - t r o l c u p t nr o d u c l ss. i n c en o l a l l o f t h c r e d t r c l i o inn d e m a n d\ \ ( ) u l dm c t b 1 a d r o p i n d o n r e r l r c P r o d l l ! - t i ( rSl te. c o n di.l c o u l d h e l nt o b r i n g d o r rn n r i c e s .a t I c a s tl e r ) ) p o r a r i lAr .s b . t l h r t h e t a r g e s t a g g r c g . r ( c o n s u m e ro f o i l a n d D e t r o l c u mD r o d u c t st.h c L l n i l c dS t a l c sn r o r ct h a n a n v o t h c r c o u n t n d c t c r m i n e st h e o r i c c o n n o r l d n r a r k e l s O . t h e r t h i n g sb c i n qe q u a l .a d e c l i n e ' i nL S c o n s u n r o t i o n o u l d b r i n g a b o u ta l a r g e r d r o n o f n r i c e st h a t w o u l d a c o m o a r a b l cr c d u c t i o na s a D e r c c r t a g eo f d c m a n d sb \ a n v o t h e r c o n s u m e rc o u n t n . B o t h l o u e r i r n p o r rl o J u n t eas n dp r r c e s \ \ o t l l ( li n t u r t rr c d u c ct h e t e c u r r i n g e c o n o m i c o s t so f f o r c i g no i l d c p e n d e n cT eh . i r d ,a d e c l i n er n - - o r al lr'asla le'sscning in the grrrsth of- US consunrntionivould help1ousethe currentand fnresccablc prcsslrrc()nthe \\orld oil rnarkctgenerated bl risingglobaldemand.l1 could heln to createsomc much nccdedslack in lhe nrarket. prirnarilr,in thc lirrnrtll'a restorali(rrola rneaningfulmargino1' s L r r p l upsr o d u c t i o cna p a c i t rw . h i c h w o u l d i n t u r n m a k eo i l s h o c k sl c s sl i k c h o r s h o r t e ri n d u r a t i o n .l l n l e s st h e U n i t c dS l a t e sc o u l dc o n t i n u et o r e d u c ei t s d e m a n do v e ra p r o l o n g e d period. horleler. this effectrright alsobc only temporan as otherconsurnerirespondto lo$cr priccsbl illcrcasingtheirconsumptionandproducersrcspondbvinrestinglcssinncuproductioncapacitr. I i i n a l l r .a d e c l i n ei n o v e r a l lU S o i l d e n e n d e n c ea.s n r c a s u r ebdl t h c o i l i n t c n s i t vo f t h e A n r e l i c a n cconoln\ would reducethe economiccost of future oil shocks.Ihc\ecosrs arcdircclhpft)lr)nionat rorhc r ) \ c r i r lllc \ f l o l c o n s u m p l i oi n l h c r c r ) r o m ) . I r r c \ a m f l a .a l 0 p l ' r c c nrte d u c l i o inn i ) i l i n l e n s r t*)o u l d r r r L r l r n a !onlfitrnhlar'criticiion in thc int lcdiatcoutia-\s f()aoil.the L)ng-tcrorlossin potenlialccrrnonric outpt,l.:rnilthe nlaer,rieortonlic adjuslmcntcos15 duc to suddcnpriecchlngr:s.In othcr!\ord:. nut(J !!\'n(r llr ntartinlrlJ\r(llt lr.t, urrLred.

oil

U.S,economvless

I l u i l p l a r sa : m a l l e rr , r l cl r l h ( c . o n o r r \ .i h . r n i r " r n r l r . r r , ' rJ oil priccs$ould hare lcssofan impaclon thc domesticeconomicoulput.

IlioiuelsAfl' lE 2ll

cNI)tlku-g I{cgenls

orLADV(2/6) are pcrfect The impact of oil priccs$
cosl 0f crude10e\ er-glreoter hi e'conorll. Nou. horr

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O \ e r l h c p a s tf c $ y e a r st.h c d r i r i n gl b r c cp r o | e l l i n g t h c crcatedbt a rcn robuslglobal dcnrandIor

It is truethat dcnrandfor oil conlinucslo bc reinli).cedbr China s burgconinr:appetitefol encrgy.uith risingChinesec(lnsunrption takingup threcquanersttr nrorcoIant r \ l r a c r u d en | o d u c t i o nY. e t i t s t i l ls e e n sa p p a f c nrth r l .{ , n t o p o f t h i s .s i g n i f i c a ncto n c e n ros\ e r s u p p l }a n da rcrr substanlialspcculative elcmcntarc -tivingaddedirnpctus10prices.lNG. thc inveinrcnt bilnk.notcs1l'tal r p . - c L r l a t ilroen r :p o s i t i o n isn t h ec r u d cm a r k e tb. e t l i n go n o i l r c a c h i n u e l l i n e x c e so s l S l 0 0 . a n da s hislr as 5200.arc at cxtremelevelsnot seenlbr to oil s

id rise

this decade

As CapitalEconomics suggcstsin a tinlel\ reportloday.the malisn combinationof badly faltering growth with rising intlationarr' 0rcssuresnon confronting the United Statesraisesthe sDectreof another Seventics cconomicterror stagflation.-The risksto US gro,*rhare all too clear.The knock-oneffectsof oil nrices could seethe cost of gasolinefor US motoristsrise by as much as 50 Der cent over th€ nert couDleof months.On top of that. the averaseAmerican's home heatingbill is set to double this *inter, Cornbined$ith the continuedtoll flom the housingmarket'sdo$Tturnandthc creditsqueeze.it is far lronr inrplausible that!ffi will sccthc tJS econom)shrinkin the final quanerofthis y-ear.Yet at the same tirne.the Fed is ljLel) to haveto grappleuith a probablejumpin inflation.CapitalEcononicsforecasts that the efleclsol sharplyincreased energycostscould pushheadlineUS inllationto nearll 5 pcr cenl.lcvclsnot seenibr l6 r ears.br December.With the plungein the dollar olsostokinginflationar)'prcssures in Anrerica. I hc almtrstinevitablecons,-'quence of this for the Fed $ ill bc that il \\ ill takelongerto deliverlhc culs in i n l c r c i rr i l r c 5t h . r tr r i l l u l t r m a t c lbt e n c i to shore upeconomic activitl.Intum.tharpfrfrS$Sft

('N I)t 2kll-9 Regenli

BiofuclsAff t9,222

orLADV(3/6) llS cconom)is ke) to globaleconom)

N e n sR a l i n g s . . l u n2c3 , 2 0 0 6(." lj S s l o u d o u t' no i m p c d ge l o b acl c o n o mgi cr o \ \ 1 h " h 1 1 p\ :\ '\ \\ \ . n c \ \ r a l i n g s . caonnarls\ 1n e \ s\ a n i c l eI l 0 , 1 l 9 8 . h t m l ) N h \ \ 1Y O R K . J u n e2 3 ( n e r r r a t i n g s . c o n rA) n a l t s t sa t l ) r e s d n eK r l e i n u o r l\ \ ' a s s c r s t c isna y t h a t t h e US econonricslorvdorlnis likelt to have a significant imnacl on thc global cconomr'. In a r e s c a r c nh o t ep u b l i s h e tdh i sr l o r n i n g .t h ea n a l )s t sm e n t i o nt h a te x D o r t sc o n t i n u et o b e t h e k € r grol th driver in maior economies.suchas Japanandthe Burozonc.Anv decelerationin the IJS cconomy $ould imDacterports and adverselYaffect domesticdemand,the anal)'stssa). l{oreovcr. the reyersalof intercst rate erDectations.triggered bv a IJS slorvdonn. is likelv to t caken the flS dollar. maybe ven substantially.DresdnerKleinu or1\\'asserstein adds.A s l o u d o un i n d e m a n df r o m t h e L j S .c o m b i n e du i t h a n e a k c r d o l l a r .h a s h i s t o r i c a l l ve x e r t e d n r c s s u r eo n g l o b a le c o n o m i cg r o t t h . t h e a n a l v s t sn o i n t o u t , Ilconom i c d t ' c l i n rci s k se \ t i n c t i o n I l e r r d c nL. i e u l c n aC n to l o n ei n l t h cL' . S .A r r n r 2 . 0 0 0( I o n r J. u n e2 , 1 . lrLll-.\\\\,.\ Ir!!I!! uNic c_1)I-r litr!t!t!lLljtr1l!lfl!1.:LlUft. Accessed 9 ll 03) I l i s t o n b c a r so u t t h a td e s p c r a tnca t i o n st a k cd c s l l c r a ttcc t i o S . l l r c s t r c s so n n a t i o n sr r i l l h a r e i n c r e a s ctdh c i n l . c n s i ta\ n dn u n r b cor f ' l l l c i rc o n f l i c t s1. ot h c o o i n lr r l r c r c A s a n e r a n t p l c .s u p l ' ) o sae s t a r \i n g \ o r 1 h K o r c a l a r r n c h c sn r r c l c a ri r c i t l ' l t r n s

u p o t tJ a p a na n dS o u t l tK o r e a .i n c l u d i n sL l . S .l i l c e s t h e r c .i l a s p a s r n o t lsi cu i c i d arl c s p o n s eO. r ' s t r P P o saed c s p e r a tCc h i n a - \ \ l t o sl co n g - r a n gneu c l e a n r r i s s i l c(ss o n r e ) c a rnc a c i tr h c l i n i t t d S t a t c s a l l a c k sf u i \ \ a n .I n a d d i t i o nt o i n l n l e d i a trec s p r ) l r i ctsh. c n r r r l r r at rlc a t i c si n \ o l \ c d i r rs t r c hs c c n a r i t r ' r t i l l q L r i c k ldl r a \ \ o l h c rn a t i o n si n t ot h ec o n l l i c t .c s c a l a t i nigt s i g n i l i c a n t l lS. t r a t c g ircr u c l c asr t u d i e s h a r c s h o l r t f b r d e c a d etsh a t .u n d c rs u c he x t r e m es t r e s sc o n d i l i o n so.n c ca f e l n u k e sa r e l a u n c h e c l adversadei'riitdl ol'pre paratirrnsb.' ( ) n c ' \a d \ c r s a n .T h e l c a l l e g a c ro f t h e \ , 1 A Dc o r ) c c pi 1s t l r i ss i d eo f t h e l \ , 1 A Dc o i n t h a ri r a l n t o s l t l c r c t d i s c u s s c d\ \.' i t h o u tc f l ' c c t ier d e f e n s et h . c o r r l tc l r a n c a c l t a t i r ) lh a s1 os u r \ i \ c a t l l l i s 1 ol : r r n c l t i r t t n r c d i a l ier l l - [ . t o l e ' p l e - c n r pst itrrci k e sa n dt n t o t a k co u t i t s p e r c e i r e dl i r e sa s l a p i d l r a n dn l r : , . i r e l r llsp(l\5ibIc'.\SthcStudies.'h.,.'.d..E|.Wii.b.|odar.ltgrca1 p c r c c n0t 1 ' 1 h W c \ 1 D a r s e n a ltsh a t* i l l b e u n l e a s h e d a .r ca l r c a d ro n s i t e u i l h i n t h e U n i t c t lS t a t e : l)5lll0sl ()l

a t l e a s lf o r n a n r d c c a d c s .

B iollels Alf 20'222

C N D I] K 8 - 9 Regcnts

orl ADV(4/6) Scenariofivo is Iran on oil thrcatcnslran's High oil priceske1'tolranian cconom\'- rcduccdf'S dcpcndcnce regimesccurit] - Security inplications o1'rising Baillie- Prof. of E conomics(a1M.S.ti. l - 10-2008("1heSl00qucstion c r i t _' 'rc o u n t r y r i s k 'j ji irr{ ) l l 0 I I 0 I n . s h t m l ) o i l p r i c e s . ' h t l p : , ' w wj ua n c s . c o n' nr e *s ' s e u W i t h o i l n r i c e sa o o r o a c h i n sU S D l 0 0 o e r b a r r e l .o i l D r o d u c e r a s r e r c c e i ri n g s i g n i f i c a n t hh i g h e r for. For those that derrcndprimaril! on oil than they had originalll budgeted sovernments !il-eM! r c v c n u e st o f u n d t h e i r b u d q e t ss. u c ha s l r a n a n d V e n e z u e l at h . i s r e D r e s e n tass i g n i f i c a n\l \ i n d f a l l a n d c a n b e u s c dt o b o l s t e rt h e g o v e r n m e n t 'dso m c s t i ca n d i n t e r n a t i o n asl t a n d i n g . ' f h ei m p a c ft o r I r a n i s onlheintcrnalional obr ious.as the c cr givesit sisnificantler e r a sa n o r l s1a

thereforc

S i n r i l a r lirn. c r e a s co di l u e a l t h\ \ ' i l l u e lt h cb e l l i g e r crnhte t o r iocf V e n e z u e l Ia)nr e s i d eInI ut g oC h d v e zr i.h o h a sl b u n d ehdi sl e f i - ui n g .a n t i - U p So l i l i c aalg e n doant h ep r o n r i soel o i l - l u c l l esdo c i asl p e n d i n - l p r o g r a n r n rDc e s .s p i tteh ei n r p a colf a r r o r s e n i nb gu s i n e se sn ri r o n m c nrlr.o u n l i ncgc o n o n rai cs \ n r n r e l r a i cusd p o l i t i c apl o l a r i s a t i or ins.i n go i l r c r e n u ehsa r ca l l o r r c ldr i g hs o c i asl p e n d i nsgh. o r i nugp h i sr e g i n r e . I I o * e r e r .l r h i l e r i s i n g r e v c nu e si n t h c s h o r t t c r m m a v b o l s t e ra u t h o r i t ar i a n r e g i m e s t. h e o i l r r i n d f a l l m a v c r c a t cs c c u r i t r r i s k so f i t s o n n . I n l r a n ,e r e n r i s i n gs p e n d i n h g a sl a i l c d1 0s a t i s I c \ p e c l a t i o n su.l r i c h r r c r cr a i s c db 1 P r c s i d c r\tl a h n r , . r u.tAl l r m a d i n c j a ld0' s0 i e l e c t i o np l c d g e1 t l i n r p r o er t h c d i s t r i b u t i o on l ' o i l u e a l t ha m o n ! \ o t e r s .I I i s p r o m i s c rsc r n a i nu n 1 ' u l l i l l efdi r r r n r ) s t l r a n i a n sa. l t h o L r gl h r a nh a ss c e ' ni t s o i l r c r c ' n u c5su r g ci n t h c p a s ll i \ c \ c a r s .D e s p i t ct h c r i s i n g T C \C n U C S .

n , r 1l ( )

t n e n l i o rt l S s a n c t i o n s\ l.o r e o r e r .t h ec o u n t n q a s s h a k e rb r r r n r c sitn . l L r r r1c0 0 ?r r h e ' nt h e ! ( ) \ e r n n l e nitn t r o c l u c epdc t r o lr a t j o r ) i r r lgc.l d i n g1 ol o n gq r r e u easn c al r s o rat l t a c k so n p e t r o l\ 1 a l r o ni\r l 'I c h r a na n dc l s c r r h c r cF. o r hir'lroiI oricescan thc ensuring reqimc sccuritr'.iYct.thc real thrcat ryill comc if Driccsstarl to trcnd dol n$ rrds. e n t D h a s i s i n gt h e m i s m a n a q e m e n tD r e v a l c n t i n t h e l r a n i a n c c o n o m t

BioluelsAtl' 2t 12)

cNDt2k8-9 Regents

orL ADV(5/6) l'hrcatcninglranian regimesecuri$ is kcl to dcmocraticchangc b aririV Sariri 2007 (ShahaS e a t i o n aC l o a l i l i o no f P r o -l ) e n r o c r a cAl d r t t c a t e sG. l o b a . i c e - P r c s i d eonJt - t h N l ' o l i t i c i a n . 2 .Al u g u s t2 0 0 7 ." 1 r a n a: T h i r dO p l i o n "l - c \ i s ) l r a n i a n c i t i e sh a v eb e c nt h c s c c n co f \ r i d e s D r e a d s e t \ r e c na r c s t i v cp o D u l a l i o na n d D r o t e s t as n d c l a s h e b thc lranian resime'sStatc SccuritYForces(SSF).StLidenls lionr-lchran'sAmir Kabir othr'rrriseknour as picturcs$ere burnedearlierthis)car. havebeer stagingsilI'olyrechnicUni\ersit). rvhereAhmadinejad's ins denranding lhc rc'lease ofpolitical prisoners. Acrosslhc counlry'.otherunivcrsilicshavc fcrllo*edsuit and clashesu ith SSI' hare beenuidel) reportcd.O\er lhe nast fc$ monlhs.teachers.laborcrs.atld frminisls h a \ c a l s os l a p e dl h e i r o t \ n D r o t e s t ss.t r i k e s a . n d s i l - i n s ,T h c p c o D l co f I r a n h a \ c s h a k e nt h e f o u n d a t i o n so f l h e n r u l l a h ' sr e p i m e r. i s k i n st h e r el i v e st o ' | | a k co n e t h i n g c l c a r :t h a t t h c v \ r a n l d c n r o c r a t i c h a n g ca n d t h e e n d l o t h e m u l l a h ' sr e g i m e .W h \ n o \ \ J F o r n c r r l l t h r e cd e c a d c rt h c W e s ( h a s r e l c n t l e s s lD \ u r s u e da p o l i c yo f a p p c a s c m c nitn a f a i l e da t t e m D t o d e a l$ i t h t h c n u l l a h s i n l r a n i n erchangcfor lucrativc yet short sightedecononlicinterests.i oda). dueto the reginre's nuclearp|ogranr a n d i t se r t e n s i v e m e d d l i n gi n l r a q .I - e b a n o nP.a l c s t i n cY.c m c n a h .e r ea r c : i g n st h a tt h e . n dA l ' g h a n i s t at n \ \ o f l d c o m m u n i t \i s i n t h ep r o c e s0s 1 - i m p l e m c n t ianngc s p o l i c r1 o \ \ a r dtsh e l r a n i a nr e g i n r cI. o d a l r .l r r o t.csolulion h sr r e b e e np a s s e b d 1 t h e L J n i l eN d a l i o n sS c c u r i l y( ' o u n c i l i. n r p o s i nsga n c l i o nosn l r a n s n r u l l a l ' . . ln lraq. coalitionforceshavebeenaclivel) \\orking 10counlcrthe regimes cflirns to cstablisha sister theocracrbaseclon Khonreini'smodel. I-hesene\\ rneasures in thc Iranian hare hadpositirerepercussions \lrtels. In rcspL)nse 10its internalcrisis.lhc rcgimchasstcppcdup publicexecutions. arbitrar_r rrrcsts.and incrr'ased it\ lcrroristactivitiesabroadin a hallou'shouol'

Onc le'l ieu ing the

ntairtttreanl nedia is led to belicvcthat thereare onl) (hc h\o optionsin counteringthe lranianlhreal.A lhir(l ttption.rrhich enlailsreachingout to Iran'sorganizeddemocraticoppositionasthc catalJsl tor change.is n e i t h eP I a c cI p o l i t i c a l l e y x p e d i e nnto r c o s t l )( a s r e l ) ) b t r tn l f e r ' , h r ,'nlr
l h e P e o p l e 'M s ojahedio nf lran the NationalCouncilofResistance oflran led bv Mrs. l\,lanamRaiavi

Thc MEK's abilirr-to mobilizeand organizcthe masseshasneverbeentruthfirllvquestioned. Untbnunate'lr. todaythe MEK sitson the SlxteDepa(mentand EU's list offoreign crrorist organizations due to outdatcdand faiJedappeasement policies.Manin Indyk.AssistantSecretar)of Slaleof Near Easrern Affairs at thc timc the MEK u'asblacklisted. told Neusqeekon September 26.2002. '... IThcre]rras White Houscintcrcslin openingup a dialoguewith the Iraniangovemment.At the time. PresidenrKhatamihad rcccnll\ beenelcctedand*as seenas a modelatc.Top Administrationoflicialssau crackingdoun on thc MEK. uitich the lranianshadmadeclearthev sawas i menace.as oneway to do so." l he terror labelaqainst the \lFlK sL'r\esas a life ljne to the mullahsin Iran. In Flurope, the EU Councilof Minislcrshayechosento llagrantl!ignorethe rule oflau'by refusingto removethe MEK from ils terrorIist.as the)'$ere houndto do alier a Decenlber2006 ruling by the EuropeanCoun ofJusticeannullingthe EU'sdecisionro blacklisrthe organization. lliston is our greatestteacher.Appeasenrent ofexpansionistregimesservesonlr as a precursor t o r l i d e - s c a lcco n f l i c t sT. h e l i s t i r l go f t h e M E K a s a t e r r o r i s ts r o u Db v t h e E U a n d l h e S t a t eD e n a r l r n e n r is nothing more than a dangerousact of aoDeasement. Such policiesfail to pacifl' a rouge reqimc u hich is hcll bent on soreadinsits fundamentalistrevolution throuehout the Middle East

B ioluelsAlf 22',222

c Nt ) l l k 8 - 9 Resents

orL ADV(6/6) Increasedlranian hard-lincregimepol'r'crcauscsconflictin thc Nliddlellast S a l e m 0 7 ( P a u l - I. ' e b .2 I . D i r e c l o 0 r 1'rhe C a r n e g iM c i d d l c l i a s tC i e n t e r . . l a pTainn r c s". D e a l i n gu i t h I t a n ' sr a p i d risein re-sional influence".Lexis) LB!j! also reaoing lhe returns of long-term inr cstments.ll hassupponedlraqi Shiitegroupssinc0thr c a r l r 1 9 8 0 sa n dh a sa n e q u a l l yl o n g - s t a n d i na gl l i a n c c* i l h S y r i a .I n L e b a n o n I, r a n h e l n e dc r c a t e o p p o n e not f t h e a n l i - 5 1 r ' i u r t . H e z b o l l a hu. h i c h r c c e n t l ]s u r r i v e da h e a d - o u n a r u i t h I s r a eal n di s t h e l e a d i n g govcrnnrenl. Wcstcm-backcd Hamas-ledgo\crnment. $hich has beenfrustrated elsewhere.is no lesssignilicant.A countr) ol 70 m i l l i o n .l r a n a l s oh a sn o t e n t i a il n f l u e n c ew i l h S h i i t ec o m m u n i t i e isn K u $ a i t . S a u d iA r a b i a . B a h r a i r a4l lihe United Arab Emirates.Iran's rise is causingalarm in the Arab Middle East. oarticularlv in in an ovcrwhelm a Shiite

Both Iran andthe Arab colrntriesare strugplingto comc to tcfln\ \\ ith the conscqucnces of lran'sne*found assertircncss. To be sure.Iran'slong-standing supponfor regional S h i i t eg r o u p si s p a l , i n go 1 1B e r ec r e a t i n gg r e a ta n \ i c t \ . u 1i t s s u c c c s s ei ns l r a q . L c b a n o na n d P a l e s t i n B a n d ( \ c n h o \ t i l i t \ . I | ri o r n ( J u d n e r )

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R e s c r r c h e ra s t t h e A m e r i c a nC c o p h \ s i c a U l n i o n ' st n n u a ln t e c l i n Igj I I S g l \ l o n d a )t h a te \ c n a s m a l l r c g i o n a lr u c l c a r \ r a r c o u l db u r n e n o u g hc i t i c st o s h r o u dt h c g l o b ci n b l a c ks r n o k \s h a d o $a n d u s h e ri n t h e a n n t a d t ' e q u i \ a l eonf t! 4 L i t t l cI c e A g e . " \ u e l c l rr i c a p o nr *r p r c s c tnht c g r c a t es:itr g l ch u n n nt h r . i rllo l h c ]ril|].I.lllUchnrrlrcsothlnt|oballranrrinl.''saldIlutcer.lrrilcr:itralnros|h!'ric\cienliS1,\|anIlohock'B1i1r.oppin i n r r ! i n e JI a I i n ) \ h ir a - s i z cbdo m b isn t os o n roc l l h c\ \ o r l ds b i g g c sclr l i c sn. o \ \s ! \ e l l cldo l c n so i ' n r i l l i o ni nr p o p u l a t i o n . UnirersilrofColoradorcsearcherO.tsrianloonandcollcagucsfoundthelcouldeeneratcl00timeslhe l'irtalities and 100 times thc climate-chillinesmokepcr kilotonofcxplosivcpo\\'erg!3ll:gU@ bet\r'eenthe UnitedStateseld formerSovict Union. For most modern nuclear-$ar scenarios.the global imDactisn'lnuclcar \\ inlcr.lhc notionol smokclronrincircraicd ciliasblotlingoutthcsunlbr ) carsandslar\ingnrosl o1.lhc[:adh's|coplc']t'sno1e\ennuc|carau1Un]n.hu1ralhcran!@ a c c o m D a n i cbd\ m a s s i v e o z ( , n el o s sa n d $ a r m i n g a { t h ep o l e sT . h a t ' s\ r h a t s c i e n t i s t s ' c o m D u t e r s i m u l a t i o n s u g g e s\tr ' o u l dh a D D e n i f n u c l e a rw a r b r o k eo u t i n a h o t s D o ts u c ha s t h c M i d d l c E a s t .l h ( \onh Korcllnpcnin5nla or.lhc moslmodclcd case.in SoLrlhcasl Asia.t nlikcin thc(bld \\'ar.\\hcnthcL,nitedShte' tnLlIl.u:sirmosth lars('lcdcechorhr.'snuclear.mililrD andslrat.gicinduslrialsilcs.)g!!gJ!g!SqI:4M l:!L43.1[g!S ha\c fe$er }}eaDonsand mieht go for maximum effect b\- using them on cities.asthe Uniled Statesdid in 19.15."We're at a nerilouscrossroads."Toon said. l hc spreadof nuclear neaponsworldwide combined\rith elobal mipration into densemesacitiesform uhat he called"perhaps!&lle4!g$!gjg9l lolheslabilinofsocietysinccthedawnofhumani$"\lorethan20learsaso.res€archersinragincdati.s.-So\rctnuclc h.]L)cllU\l\\(lu1d$lcakha\ocoJllhe|lanclscl|ma1c'I.hc\sho\cdlhcpf)b|Un\\aspolenIial|\\orsethanl.td:\jass \ \ o u l d l l u s h h u n d r e d so f m i l l i o n s o f l o n s o l b l a 0 kn x r l s k \ $ a r d . \ r h c r e- ' h e a l e db ) s u n l i g h l- i l \ l o u l d r o a r h i g h c ri n l o l h r s l r a t o s p h e r c a n d b c s r ne o o l r n go t f l i l e p r o l e c l r \ eo r o n c l a \ c r a r o u n dl h e l i a r r h I l u g e l o s : i c so l o z o n c$ o u l d o p e nt h e p l a n c la n d i t s i n h a b r t a n l lso d a r r a s i n cr a d t 3 l i o n\-\ h r l e t h c \ \ a n n s o o r\ o u l d s p r c a da p a l l s u l l l c r c n tt o p l u n g et h e E a n h i n t o f r e c z i n gl c a r - r o u n d 1 h c h u n d r c d jr ) l ' m r l l r o ' r \\ \ h o \ r o u l d s t a r \ cc \ c c . d c d l l t { ) s c\ \ h o \ r o u l d d i c i n l h e i n i t r a lb l a s ( sa n d r a d r a l i o n

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BRAZTL ADV (1/8) Currcnt tJ,S.attempts to improvetl,S. Braziliancooperationarc stalledbccauseof its tarrif againstethanol Associated l'rcss 3-7-07 ('tlrazil's ethanolpushcould !'al ir\\'a\at Anrazon. h t t p : r v r r r n t s n b c . r l s n . c oi d m' ,1 7 5 0 t )l 36 ' ) l ush S A O l , A t r L O .B r a z i l- J u s ta n h o u r ' sd r i \ c o u t s i d ct h i st r a l l i c - r - h r r knerdc t r o p o l i\ s\ h e r eP r e s i d e nB Iiicli\ oft a Latin Ameriran tour Thursda\'.su{ar canelieldsstretchiirr hundrcdsof rniles.providingthr' c a r s . l nr r n l l a l e u r e a r s ,B r a z i lh a st u r n e di t s e l li n l r r c r h a n r t) hl a tl l e l s e i g h to u t o f c v c r y I 0 n c n B r a z i l i a n tlr.'planct'sundisputcdrcneuablcenerg! Icader,and the highlighl of Bush'svisil is e\rtecledto bc a ncri c t h x n o l" a l l i a n c c " h e r v i l lf o r g er i t h B r a z i l i a nP r e s i d c nl(. u i zl n a c i ol q l g d a s i l \ i l \ , t a ( , t )t ' \ c n \ r r o n n r c i r r l (r Ilrarill Anra/on rarn lL,rc\t ih. ,ltxl r' \trll - 1t h i \ \ h i l c s u c h a n a l l i a f l c c o l l i r i o n p o n u n r l 1 . \ r r a l s o p , ) s c s n s k \ i r u t t h c t w o l c a d c A n r c c \ p c . 1 e d t o r r r n a n ; r c i o r d I r r d . r y ( , d , r \ e L ) p ' t a n d a r d , i l o h c l l l u r n e l h . r r l ( i lr r r t ( ,x n |lll.|Jl]l|('ljij||\lradcdcomfNd11\.andtopr(lmolcsu!!arelnt-h.

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r)h\laclclblitical and energ\ anal\'sts$'arn that an\ agreementsreachedbetlreenBrazil and the l r p i l e d S t a t e sa r c u n l i k e l \ t o h a v cs h o r t - t e r mc f f e c l s A . n d t h e d e a li t s e l f c o u l de n d u n l a r g c l \ s \ n l b o l i c b c c a u s co f r e l u c l a n c eb \ W a s h i n g t o nt o a d d r e s sa k e \ o o i n t o f f r i c t i o n :A 5 3 c e n t - D e r - p a l l o[ rn. S ,l a r i t f o n B r a z i l i a ne ( h a n o li m p o r t s ." F o r t h e B r a z i l i a n st.h e l a r i f f h a r u t m o s lD r i o r i t \ ' , "s a i dC r i s l o p hB e r r . i l n c t h a n o la n a l \ s t $ i t h G e r m a n ) 'Is O . I i c h t ,r c o n l m o d i t i erse s e a r c hf i r m . " T h c l r r i l l a g r e er r i t h d c ' r c l o p i nbui o l u e le c o n o m i easr o u n dl h c \ \ o r l d .b u l t h e l i r s t t h i n g t h c \ $ i l l s a t i s ' \ \ ' e $ ' a n t a od o a n a \ $ ith that tariff."'

UiotirelsAll' )1 '2

( NI)t tk8-9 Regents

BRAZTLADV (2/8) L i f t i n g t h e [ J . S . ' st a r i f f a g a i n s te t h a n o li m p o r t ss p u r si n c r e a s e dL . S . B r a z i l i a nc o o p e r a ( i o tnh a t ' s k e t t o l - r t i n A m c r i c a ng r o $ t h a n d s t a b i l i t Y 1(-) the l,ugar and Abdenur - chairmanofthc Senalcl:oreignRr'lalionsComnliltee.and []raziliananrbassador t . S . 5 - 1 5 - 0 6t R i r h a r da n dR o b c n o .A m c r i c a n dl l r a r i l l D l e r s eocnl l l l h a n o .l Irtlp: rrrr*.rcnrrrahleenergyuorld.cont rr.-a nlrs reinsidcrstoDljd=.11896) -fhc ccononricand p{)lilicalcn\ ironntcnlin the Our (lro countriesneedaoaccelerat€their coopcration. Anrcricasis changingrapidly.crealingne\r challcngesfor eachthat \\c can nreetbctterii \\c do so togcther. Ilrazil has sDecialinfluencein the region becauscof the sizc of its econom\'.DoDulation.land mass. natural resourcesand significanteconomic.political and cultural ties $ith neishbors.Ilrazil and thc lo conlributelo the rcgion'sccononic.socialand political LinitedS1a1es shouldcombinctheir strengths d e r c l o p m e nS t .i n t i l a r l \e' .f f o r t sa l l o \ i e r i n gt r a d e b a r r i e r si n t h e A m c r i c a ss, o i m p o r t a n li n s t i m u l a t i n e g r o u t h . a r r n o } 1o n h o l d .i n p a r l b c c a u s tch e U n i l e d S t a l e s B . r a z i la n dN 4 e r c o s{ul r a d i n !z o n eb e t \ \ c e l l Brazil.Ar:':entina.Lirugua1.andParagua)) differences$ould be a boon to both countries.Wcboth face challenecsto our energ\ securit\ fro[] thc s h a r p l r i s i n r r r o r l d ui d c d c r r a n dl b r c n e r g l .H i q h e r \ r o r l d c n e r g vD r i c c sg. r e a t e rv u l n c r x b i l i t \t o e n c r g \ . ut amidthi\ ! h o c k sa n d i n c r c a s e dD o t e n t i aflr ) r c o n f l i c ta r c c o n s e o u e n c ct hsa t $ i l l a f f e c ta l l n a t i o n s B n c r r c n c r g \ t h r c a t .$ c a l s oh a y ea n o o o o r t u n i t \t o t a s h i o na $ i n - \ r i n r c s D o n s{ch a t c o u l d l } c n c l ' ibt o t h r)ur countrics.'fheke\ is cthanol.$hich Brazil Lrn3attr sarras an inrpcrnant clen'lenlol il\ erirg) slraleg) uniinorrplrrideslSlrercentoitbecounlr\'saulL)D)orirc'lur'l.thanlistoirbironringsugar-cil!''bascdelhitDol irdustrr. As J rcsull.Brazil.* hich r earsago had1(rinrporla largcshllc r.rlthr'pelroleunrnccdcdlbr J o n r c s l i c o I : L r 0 r p l i ornc.c r D t l )r e l c h c ccl o n r p l c tscc l l - 5 u i f i c i c n ci n) o i l I o I i t so ! \ n c r c l g ] \ c c u r i l ) .l h e \ thc I n i l c dS l a l ! ' s- - b y t h r t h e\ o r l d ' s l a r . s e o s ti l i m p o r l c -' r- s i n r i l l r l lI e e d st r rb | e ' a ko i l ! n c a r - n r o n o p ool n tr.iinsporl sL'ctorb\ luminu to elhanollbr a nruchlargr:rshar,-' of its irulolir.'l suppll. Allhou!b the Llniled S t l l c s .L r : i n gc r ) r np. r o d u c cnse a r l la sm u c hc r h a n o,lr sl l r a z i l a n di s c r p l n d i n gi t sa n n u apl r o d u c t i o bn 1 1 5 p ! ' r c e n tl .h e J i r L rbri l l i o nl a l l o n sp r r r L l L : ci se sd t i l lu t i n l l i a c t i r r n g a l l o n so l g a s o l i n c ' o l - t h . 'l J 0 L . i l l j o n c o n ! L l r r e d . I i \ i lf]:!- 8 : l i L e la. h l c n dc r l - 1 : - p e r c cgnut . t ' l i n ca r r r6i : ' 1 - . q 1 c ac tl l,r l n ( r ia. n du t s i l l a r a i l , t b l c l l r r i b l e - f l c l1 c ( h n o l o gs)o t h a tc a r :c a nb u m I - . - l ' i 5 t h. c t i l c d S { a l e cs r r u l dd r a n r a t i c a l[lil! \ e r i t so i l d c p ( ' n d c n c(ci a . i n i n gc o n s u n r earc c c p t a n c\ \ei l l i p u r l l t cc \ p l n s i o no l ' c t l r a I onl r o d u c t i oann d i n i l a \ l r u c l | l r , r i h u t r n e a n s p r c a d i ntuh r -a v a i l a b i l i no f E - 8 5 .n o u l a r ! c l r l i n r i t c dl o t h f \ { i d \ \ c s l .t o n r a r k e t1Jl ! r r c o a s 1 l (r ( ( J r \ lO n c s o l u l i o nm i g h t b c l b r l h c L l n i t c dS l a t c sl o i m D o r t r o r f l l r n r i l i a ne t h a n o l1 0b l c n do n l . l s l ( Lrast. rrhc'retransponation co\l\ sitnificanll\ rai\c thc plice ol-\liducrt r'lhanol.I!4lll!!qbl. horrcrcr. r r q u i r c t h c r ) o l i t i c a l l d\ i f f i t u l l s l e po f e n d i n qt h c D n ) l e c t i r et a r i f f \ r ) nl l r a z i l i a nc l h a l o l l h i l n o \ \ ' h c l r c r sr l l c t . \ i n d u s t r }l.t m r k e ss t r { l e g i cs c n s ct o i m p o r l c n \ i r o n n r c n ( a l lf\r i c n d l \ r ( h a n o lf r o m { r e l i a ! r l cf r i e n d l i L e B r a z i l i n o u r o $ n h c m i s D h e r e\ .t i e r a l l . t h eL l n i r . . S l l a t c sd o e s n ' l

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BRAZTLADV (3/8) l-his rr ill also improvc prospectsfor Latin American democratization N'lc!lullen_Dcput\ n ssistanl t..S.- Ilrazil Secretary lbrWestern Hemisphere Alliirs l0-l?-07iChristoplrer. Relations:Folling a StrategicPartnership. http:'''\\\r'\\.state.i:ov'p'rrha'rls'nn 9li55.htnr) 07,q,.1 l l a \ i n g s p e n t t h e l a s t t \ \ o ) c a r s a s C o n s( ;ucl n c r ailr S a oP a u l o I. c a na t t e stth a ln o u i s a n e x c i t i n g l i m ci n tl.S.-llrazilian r e l a t i o n sS. u c c i n c l lpl u 1 o. u r r e l a t i o n s h i D is b s i d e s I. t i s a l s ob a s c do n a s o l i df o u n d a t i o no f m u t u a l i n t c r e s t sm . u t u a l r c s D c c ta. n d m u t u a l h s h a r e d ralucs. As SecrctanRicc hassaid.ue vieu llrazil as a regionalIqaderand globalpanncr.Brazil is the fifth larceslcounln in the uorld andthe tenthlargesteconomr.It hasenormousinfluencein Lalin Amcrica. B r a z i l b o r d e r so n t c n c o u n t r i e sa n d e x c r t sn r o f o u n de c o n o m i ca n d D o l i t i c ailn f l u c n c co n a l l o f t h e m . More broadh. Brazil is a model for countriesin lhe region asniring to becometruc dcmocracicsn hosc go\ ernmcntsact resDonsiblY and are resDonsiveto their oeorrle.We look to Brazil to erert its lcadershiDto moderateDoDulistand anti-denrocratictendenciescr idcnl in scrcralgo\'c'rnnrcnls thal are oLrlo f step$ ith rc'stof the henrisphere.Our AssistantSecretary . Tonr Shannon.recentl) observedthal 'succcsslitl d i p l o n r a ci)n t h er e g i o ni s b u i l ta r o u n dp o s i t i cr a g e n d a sc .o o p e r a t i ocno. l l a b o r a t i oann. d\ i b r a n l nrLtltllatcralisn l nr t' -h a lc o n l e \ 1l.l l a z i l ' sl o n ! lt r a d i t i o nc r ln r u l l i l a t c r a I g a g e n r ! 'ann1dp e a c e k e c p i n -r ua k c s cn i l a r r i t l u r ar e l g i o n allc a d ! ' al n du l o b a p . n ep r i r n ec r a n r p l ei s i n l l a i t i u h e r c f J r a z iils t h c l e a d i n g l a r l n e rO l f o o | r o n l f j b u l o r 1 0 t h c I n i t c d N a t i o n s S t a l r i l i z a t i o n l \ ' l i s s i o n l N l l \ t - S I A l l ) . a n d a l l r l z i il si at hn t( j c n c r a l r o n t n r i i n d ! 'Pr .r e s i d c nl -t u l a ' sa d m i n i s l r a l i ohna ss h o * n s l r o n gl c a a l c r s hiinf s L r p p t r r t ian gl : - n r o n l h[ c n e \ , , a 1 o l \ 1 l N t S - l A l l ' s n l a n d a l e\ \. ' c a g r c c$ i l h B r a r i lt h a lt h r r en r L r sble a c o n c e n e cdl l o n o n s e c u r i t a l nd r t r : t i l u l i ohnL r i l d i nfgo r a r i a h l e s. l a b l ca n dd e n r o c r i i l iI cl a i t i .A n o t h c re r a n r n l cu f o u r c o l l a b o r a t i o ni s [ ] r a z i l ' \ c o n s t r u c t i r cr o l c i n a d r a n c i n ga r e g i o n a a l g e n d ah a s c do n d c m o c r a t i c\ a l u c s .\ \ ' h i l ct h c r ch a i b . t r l a l k a b o u la s h i i l o t h e l e l ri n L a t i nA n r e r i c at .h et r u t hi s t h a lt h c r ci s b r o a dc o n s e n s ui ns t h e | e g i o nI i r | r l r l t t o c f i i l igco v e n r n r e n rl sc.d u c i n gp o r c r t r .a n dc : . p a n r l i rcr g c o n o n r iocp p o i t u n i t i cf so r a l l p c o p l ee. s p c c i r l l r r r l i l f -n! a l i . / e sc tl c l o r s . \ s S e c r c t a nR i c r s a i dl i r s tu e c k . l l l c c \ c c l l l i o n 1 s ol h i s l r c g i o n acl o n s c n s u snlr a l L . . ' r)ois\b . l r tt h c \ a r eh c a d i n li n t h eo p p o s i t de i r c c l i o no l l h e l r e n r i s p l r ear'ca r rh o l e . I n l l c l . t h L ' l i i c n d s h iapn J t r r o r k i n gr r i t hd c n r o c r a r l c nlirtncrshb i pd u c c n l h e L n i t e dS l a l c sa n dB r a z i lu n r j t r s c o r cr )sr l rc o n r n i l n r c nt o l i i c n d si n t h er c g i o n r e l a r d l e sosl ' r r h e r ct h * l a l l o n t h c p ( J l i i i c l\lp ! ' c l n r n rT.h c c e n l e r o i e coef o u r \tratcgic pxrtncrship. and thc ar.'auhcr.'ilrazil s lcadcrshipha\ bccndccisi\!'.!_\_llll!qg!!!Ii!-q!!_!.1! I t i o f i r e l s1.' h i si o i n t i n i t i a t i r cu n d c r s c o r eosu r r i c r r o f l l r : r z i lu s n o l o n l r a r e g i o n a l e a d e r .b u l a l s oa s i r gbbal nartncr.

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BRAZTLADV (4/8) A n d L . S . - B r a z i l i a cno o p e r a t i o n o n c t h a n o l$ i l l e f f e c t i r ' l !n c u t r a l i z cC h a \ e z ' sa g g r c s s i o an n d c h a l l c n g c tso d e m o c r a c Ji n L a t i n A m e r i c a l . a u r aC a r l s e n i s t h c d i r c c t o or f l h e I R C A n l c r i c a sP r o g r a ni rn M e x i c oC i t y .* h c r c s h eh a su o r k c da sa r r r i l c ra r t d p o l i t i c aal n a l y sfti r r t h c p a s t u o d e c a d e s .T. h c B r a z i l - t i SE t h a n oAl l l i a n c c A i n t s t o L n d M c r c o s u r a n d C h d v e z Dreanrs. BrazzilNe\\'spaper. l0 March2007 I,residentGeorgeW. Bush has embarkedon a fi\ c-nation tour of Latin America - thc rnostanrbitiousr)l i n a r c g i o n$ h e r e o D e nh o s t i l i t \t o h i s h i sp r e s i d e n c-l i n a n a l t e m D t o r e a s s e rU t . S .l e a d e r s h i D g o v e r n m e nat n d i t s f o r e i g na n d e c o n o m i cD o l i c i e iss t h e n o r m r a t h e rt h a n t h e e x c e p t i o nT. h e U . S . D r e s i d e nht o r r e st h a t e s o o u s i nae n e n c o m m i t m e n t o " s o c i a li u s t i c e "$ i l l u n d e r m i n eV e n c z u e l a ' s crusadefor Latin American and Caribbean unitY basedon a reiectionof [J.S.dominanceand thc free ( r a d em o d e l .B u s h ' st r i p s e e k st o b u i l d a n e \ r c o a l i t i o no f t h e w i l l i n e .i n t h e f a c eo f a c o a l e s c i negr o u D o f n a t i o n st h a t h a sd e c l a r e di t s e l fu n $ i l l i n g t o c o n t i n u et o f o l l o n t h c e c o n o m i ca n d p o l i t i c a ld i c t u m so f Washington.

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'l n i t h B r a z i l .B r a z i l i s r , , , , , ' h e k e r 1 ot h e c a m r l a i g nt.h o u g h .l i e si n t h c c o n s o l i d a t i oonf t h r r e l a l i o n s h i p l - a t i n A m e r i c a ' sD o \ i c r h o u s ea.n d c o n s i d e r e o d n e o f t h c f o u r e n r c r g i n ge c o n o m i etsh a t $ i l l r i s et o b c m a i o r p l a \ e r s \ r i t h i n t h c n c r t d e c a d e sT. h e e t h a n o la l l i a n c es e e k st o c o n s o l i d a tae n e $ D o $ e r l i n c i n l - a t i n A n l e r i c at h a t r u n s d i r e c t l \ b e t w e e nt h e U n i l e dS t a t e sa n d B r a z i l ,l r i t h t h e d \ n a m i c f o r c c b c i n g t h e ( r a n s n a t i o n acl o r D o r a t i o nrsi t h i n t e r e s t si n b o t h c o u n t r i c s I. f t h i s a l l i a n c ei s c o n s o l i d a t eidt \ r ' i l l erode the Bolivarian plan to inteeratethe continentrrith a model of state-reeulated economiesand \/enezuelanoil. lt \r'ouldalso undermineefforts to strcnsthenthe SouthernCommon Market. In lh. deal. Brazil gains caDitalto develoDcthanol-producingtechnologics\rithin its o$n borders and exDort t h e m t o C e n t r a lA m e r i c aa n d C a r i b b e a nn a l i o n s .I n a d d i t i o nt o i n v e s t m e n a tn dc r e d i t st.h eS A oP a u l o industrialists arq assuredpoliciesto extendagribusiness into thc Amazonandotherregionsno\\ populatcdb) s n r a l l a r n e r s . T h eU n i t e dS t a t e sq of thc chcap Brazilian ethanol.It also beeinsto redra$ the maD of energvintegration in Latin America h a s e do n B r a z i l i a ne t h a n o lr a t h e rt h a n V e n c z u e l a o n i l a n d B o l i v i a ng a s ,t h u s n e u t r a l i z i n gt h e D o \ r e ro f pations it considersuncooDerative. Cargill.one ofthe largcsto$nersand operatorsofethanolproduclionin Brazil.and otheragribusiness corporalions. cxpandsin the southrvhilecontinuingto protcctils com interests in thc nonh b1 maintaininrr tJ.S.importrarifl! on ethanol.As mono-cropping ibr bioflels takcsovcr huge tractsol-land.sntalllbod farnrers$ho havealrrarsresistedinternational marketcontrolof landand resources q ill bcconra e s p c c i e isn d a n g eor f e x t i n c t i o n .

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" D a \ a b l eu o o p t h c o \ e r t h r o \ 1o f C o l o n r b i a ' sg o \ e r n m c n t T a s t o n i s h i n sgu D r r o rfto r s o m eo f t h c \ i o r s t l e r r o r i s l so n [ - a r t h .F A R C i s r c ! i l c db ) a \ ! ' r a g eC o l o i l b i a n sI.t el'lbnsto confronl shoLrld bc clcador disarmedat this point bccausePrcsidcntAlraro Uribc'scouragcuus I r A R Ch a \ c b e e nr e l e n t l c s Y s .e r h e h a s n '\t\ r l n) e l . t h a n k s1 0I ' A l l c ' s c l a n d c s t i nseu p p o nl i o n t V c n e z u e l a . I l \ h r r d o r o u g hr o \ \ i n a n a s \ n r n r e t r i cuaal r l i k c t h i s .h a r d e sr t i l l i l t h c i n s u r g e nat sr es t o k e di i o r no t h e r \ l r t c \ . C h a \ c z n o t o n l \ s u D D o r ttsh e s ci u n g l ct h u g s .h e ' su r g i n gt h e \ \ ' e s tt ( )t a k c t h e s t k i l l c r so f f i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e r r o rl i s t s .s o t h e \ c a n o D c n l \r a i s em o r c f u n d s .S o l o n ga s A n l c r i c ab u \ s V c n c z u e l a n( l i l . C h a r c z $ i l l h a v ct h e m o n e rt o h e l n F A R C c r e n t u a l l rd e s t r o rC o l o m b i a l. { c \ \ o n ' ls l o po n h i s o r i n .r r n J l h . c l a n d c s l i nnea t u r eo f h i s a i d s u g g e s h t sc ' l l s c c kn e ' ul a r s t o d o i t o n t h e ' s l 1l t ' s p a r t o f C h a r e z ' s s l r a t c g \ 1 ou s ch i s n c t r o d o l l a r st o t a k c o \ e r t h c h e m i s r t h c r-t- o r a t l c a s tb c c o n l ti l s m a i n r t r ) \ r e r b r o k c r . T h u sf a r .t h eo p e ns i d eo f C h a r e z ' sq u e s li s c l c a r .[ . i s i n gd e n r r c r a t iccl c c t i o n sC. h a \ c r s ! 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S r. h e t o r i ca n d o i l c a s h .g e t sd e s t a b i l i z e dC.o l o m b i am a v b e t h e s c a r i e set x a n l p l eo f Cha\ cz's destabilizationefforts. but others are threatened.too -- including Mexico and Peru. t\o s t a l $ a r t s$ h o h a v en o i n t e r e s it n b e i n gC h a v e z ' sp u n p e ts l a t e s l.t ' s s i g n i f i c a ntth a t M e i c o ' sa n d Pcru's ambassadorswere recentlvseenrith PresidentBush at the Council of the Americas Wednesda\ pleadingto Conqressfor free trade for their neiqhbor Colombia.$ hoseeconomicsuccessis as I ital to them as their own. All thrce nationsare under fire from Cha\ez. andneedvibranteconomiesto *ithstandhim. Peruis fightingChavistainfiltrationthroughthe dictalor'sneulr tbrmed"Housesof AIba" and hassqena resurgence ofthe ShiningPathMarxistgucnillasit stompedou1a decadeago. l\4cxico's fightinga terrible*ar againstdrug-dealing crimina)suhose primesupportfro abroadis FARC terrorisls. LastThursda)the chief of Mexico'snaljonalpoliceuas gunncddo$n b) thesethugsin Mexico Cif'. striling ol' inro thc heanofthe Mexicanslatc.Meanu'hile.the raid thatkilled Re)esal(o rerealedthe frr('sence l\'lericanoperativesin Colombiabelievedt() be in traininglo destroyMexico'soil pipelines.uhich suppll m u c ho f A m e r i c a 'os i l . l t ' s a n u s h D i c t u r ef o r t h e U . S .W e m u s t e i t h e rd e - f a n gC h a v c zs o o n ,o r \ i a t c h democraticneighborscollanseto h is vast dictatorshin.If that happens.oil pricesn ill rise as high as his a m b i t i on .

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BRAZTLADV (7/8) Latin Americ:ris the kc1'modelfor globaldemocrac]' I)enrocract and editors. books Hillman.,Pcclcr,& Silva02 (Richard S..JohnA..andlilsa.Prcstigious l l u n r r nR i r h l si n L a t i nA n r e r i c ap.g . r ' r . h l l f i : b o o k s . g ( x ) gcl o c n rb o o k s ? i d = r t sI Y l a p l l l t p A C & p gl ) l ' q & l p g P I ' 9 & d q l - a t i n - A n r e r i c a - e r P e r i c n c c s ' . -l .h r L ) u g h r ) u r - i h e - \ \ { ) r l d . - h i l l n r a n & s o u r c e - $ clbA&I (' l)llusc \ \t j 8 r & s i g o i 5 a l li l L l ' Z cl G S l g ( \i \ O l h \ !p U l Q l & h i u n & s a = X & o i = b o o kr c s u l t & r c s n u ml & c t = r e s u l l * P P P l . N l l )

[:tin American experiences,especiallyin the areasof democratiza' tion and human rights protection,are particularly relevant for developing countries that are attempting to truild stable political and economicsystemsin ord€r to Pmvide a decentstandard of living and incorporatepreviouslvexcludedpopulationsinto the nationalmainstseam-The past record,o( course,is far from actePtable. Tlre adverrl of the twenty-first century. hower.er,appears to bc a time of great potential progrrss for the institutionalization of democratichuman rights regimesthat would reducehuman Pain and sufIering. The number of countries in Lalin Americr and else\^'herethat are experimenting u'ith democracy'has never been greater Clearl1,, the path ioward fulfilling the expectationsrais€dbv thes€experiments is not an eas!:on€;il is fraught with difficult obstaclesderiving from tht' historical legacv as u'ell as conternporary chalhnges. Nerrcrthelcss, dcmocracy and human ritr;htshave defhitivelv entcrcd thc prilitir-allexiconand di:<'oursethrrruglroutthe rtorld.

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ADV (8/8) BRAZTL for hundredsof millionsof deaths- dcmocracr Failureto spreaddemocrac)is responsiblc is thc singlesolutionto all n ar and gcnocidc. ' C h a p l c rI a r r h eL i n i v e r s i toyJ t t a $ a i i 1 9 9 7 ( R J .I ) o r r e rK i l l s . Rummel P r o l c s s oorf l ) o l i t i c aSl c i c n c e S i r m n r a na n dC o n c l u s i o n sr.v" uu . h a u a i i . c d u . ' peor $k i l l s r P K . C HPn l . l l T M ) W e r e $ a r a n d o t h e r i n t e r n a t i o n avl i o l e n c et h e o n l \ s o u r c eo f m a s sd c a t h s i. t \ + o u l db e e n o u g ht o d e m a n do u r g r e a t e set f f o r t l o e r a d i c a t ei t . b u t t h e r ei s a l s oc i \ i l r i o l e n c e$ i t h i n s t a t e st o a d d t o t h i s carnageB . l o o d vr i o t s ,r c \ o l u t i o n s g, u e r r i l l a\ r a r . c i v i l u ' a r . l c t h a lc o u D sd ' e t a t .t c r r o r i s m .a n d t h e l i l c . have also claimed millions of victims.And for this secondhunranplaguethc solutionshavebccnno less teachhunlanralues.facilitate cr!'ati\cand raricd. We'shouldeliminatepovcn). pron]oteunderslanding. institutionalizeconflictresolulion. governnrcnl. chanite.decentralize cmphasizenrinoritl self-deternlination. . u d a nS. o m a l i a . a n col n a n do n . Y e t a so f t h i s u r i t i n gr r e s t i l l h a v cb l o o d l c o n f l i c t si n l l r r a n d aB. u r u n d iS Iraq. iurke]. and a dozenor more olller nalrons. .\nlola. ,\i-ithanistan. Bosnia.Croatia.Sri [-anka.lvlyanrnar. . \ n d t h c n$ c h a r ct h e* i d e s p r e a a d l l l i c t i o nc \ c m p l i f i e db } t h e l l o l o c a u sat n dg e n o c i d cp' se r p e l u a t ei nd llo:nir and R\\arda.bul rrhosegeneralitlhasbccn igroredor unkno*n.!!355-14!3134!gg41q!!,-121 d c n r o c i d c i n s h o r t . h a s b e e n t h e \ r o r s t s c o u r g c Iot fhaN l l s.k i l l e di n o u r c e n t u r \n o t o n l \ r i l l i o n s o r o f t h c l l l a c k D c a t h .b u l o f m i l l i o n s l . t h a s b c c na r e v i s i t a t i o n lcn\ millionsb . u t D o s s i b l hv u n d r c d so f n o \ i i n t e n t i o n a l l \c a r r i c do u t b v h u m a nh a n d s .T h e r c c o g n i t i o no f t h i s e c n t r a l h u l c h e r \ h a sb c e ns o n c \ r t h a t g e n e r a sl o l u t i o n sa D a r tf r o m t h o s ef o r \ 1 a r a n d c i \ i l \ i o l c n c eh a \ e o n l \ r c c c n t l \ l ) c c n D r o D o s e dI.l o \ ! c a no n ee v e np r e s u m et h. e r e f i r r ct h. a tt h e r r ' i sa s o l u t i o n1 ( \) \ a f l A l l a l l c g t d s o l L r l i o rnt sl t l ' l s ! ' c r no n l ) r h cr a ri n e o f i d c a l i s l sl .b t h o s er r i l h a n a p p r c c i a l i ornr l l r i s t o r la l l t h a ts t c n t sp o s \ i b l ci s t o r n o d c r a lacn cpi c r h a p isn s o m cc a s e sl o a r o i da p a n i c u l aur a r . ' \ n r l s i n r i l u r hl i r r p r o p o s r 'scol l u t i o ntsr re i r i l r i o l c n c ra n dd c m o c i d c".l - e t sb c r c a l i s t i c .i"t i s o l i c - ns r i d ." l i r r c i g na r d d o n r e s t i\ci ( J l e n cacr ei n o u r b l o L r d . | r c r h a r c a l r r a r sb e c ni r i t h i r s :t h e r r ri l l a l * a r s b e r r i t h L r : . ", \ n r r r a r .s L r n eu i l l a r s L r ! '\.\ i r r sa r cs o r l r t l i n r . s n e c ! ' s s a \r\ h ! ' nl l l e a l l c r n a t i \ easr ee \ e r l ] r o r ch o n i b l c .s L r c ah s h i ] \ i n go n c ' sc o u n l r it a k ! ' no \ e r b ; a i b r e i . n \r e 'rr idcolog) . And r er it is rhc burdcn of this book 10sho\\ thal thcsc "I9al$d_-!I9_\l9lg:]!lq!g] l! rcgard to rrar and lcsserinlemalionalr iolcncr:.\\rrongaboutcir il collectirer iolcncc.$91g3!pg! g c n o c i d e! n d m a s sm u r d e r ,T h e r ei s { ) n cs o l u t i o nl o c a c ha n d t h e s o l u l i o ni n c a c hc a s ei s t h c s a m e .l t i s 1 r Jf o \ l e r d c m o c r a t i cf r c c d o n a n d t o d c l n o c r a t i z cr o c r c i \ eD o r r e ra n d f o r c c . l - h a ti s -r l a s sL i l l i n ga t t d nIr.. nrLrrde r r r i e do u 1b r g o r c ' T n n r ti'snal r e s u l o l l i n d i . c r i n r i n a ticr r. c ' s I t r n s i b l t ' l ' o rar cl trh c c e l t l c rO r l r ca t c i n r \o l l h c t i t l co l r h i sb L r , l kI .' o r r c r k i l l s .

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8r06 T h e f e d c r a lg o rc r n m c n ts h o u l da b o l i s hi t s t a r i f f o n i m p o r t e de t h a n o lt o m a k c n o s s i b l ca n a f f o r d a b l c alternatirc to foreign oil. urgedFloridaCov. Jcb Bush(R) on June5 aftcrmcetingu ith []razil'sN{inisterol' r \ t r i c u l t u r eR . o b e n oR o d r i g u e sB.r a z i li s t h e r r o r l d ' sl e a d i n gc t h a n o lD r o d u c e re. r p o n i n g7 0 0 n t i l l i o n gallonsol inexpensive. sugar-based ethanoleachycar. "We don't put a tariffon crude imported from a c o u n l r \ l i k € V e n e z u e l ab. u t \ e t $ e n u t a t a r i f f o n c t h a n o l .$ h i c h i s a r e n e $ a b l es o u r c eo f c n c r g \ t h a t o r o v i d e sa c l e a na l t e r n a t i \ e . "c r p l a i n e dB u s h ." W e ' r ea t a p o i n ln o $ u h e r e$ e n e e d1 od c \ c l o ps t r a t c g i c1\ 0 b c l i n t h a tp r o c e s s . " I a r i l i l r n p e d e C s o n r p c l i l i o n L l u s ha d r o c a t c tdh c t r n i l e dS t a t c si m p o n l 5 b i l l i o n g a l k r n so f c t h i r n opl c rl c a rb ) 2 0 1 5 .u p f r o mo n l y6 6 r n i l l i o rg a l l o n sp c r y e a rc u r r e n t l )I.J i r tC o n g r c s sm u \ t abolish thr 5J cents-per-gallonimDort tar on ethanol beforc L.S. consumerscan benefit from i n e r p c n s i \ cc t h a n o li m D o r t s B . u s hs a i d . E t h a n o lc u r r c n t l \ h a sa d i f f i c u l tt i m c c o m n e t i n gr r i t h qasolincip thc United Statcs.L\'en \\ ith ethanolbenefitingfronra 5 I cents-per-gallon i'ederalta\ credil. pricc's produced. arc roughl) equal.Iloucrcr'. ofgasolinc and domcstically corn-bascd cthanol l.f-g!lllon c t h a n odl e l i r c r sa p p r o x i n r a l e3l r0 p e r c c nll' e r v cnr r i l c sp e ' rg a l l o nt h a ng a s o l i n eC. o s t - C o n l p c t i l i \ e . . \ l t c m a l i r c B r a z i l i a ne t h a n o li s m a d ef r o m s u g a r .h o \ \ e\ c r . @ as much as regular gasoline.l-he ethanolmileagetradeotlis thcrclirremorcthancornpensated b) the chcap p r i c co l s u r a r - b a s eedt h a n o l . B u l t h e" : . 1 - c c n l - a - g c l lloan| i l l ' o ns u g a r - b a s c tdh a n oel s s e n t i a l Il rl c c ' z eisL o L rol l l h e 1 . . S n . r a r k e t .n" o l c da J u n cl 7 C h i c a g oT r i b L r nhco u r ce d i l o r i a l . " B r a z i l h a st h e \ t o r l d ' s m o s t a d v a n c c de t h a n o li n d u s t r \ ,a n d i t h a sa c o l t a d \ a n t a g cb c c a u s cs u g a ri s a m o r ee f f i c i c n ta l c o h o l I c c d s t o c kt h a n c o r n . " o b s e r v e5d1 .L . o u i P s o s l - D i s p a l ccho l u n r n i sDl a r i d N i c k l a u si n l J u n eI 0 a n i c l c ." l l u L t h c t r . S .s l a p sa 5 . . 1 - c e n t - a - g at lal o r inl l ' o nl l r a z i l i r nc l h a n o l l.n o l h c r\ \ o r d 5 o. u r s o \ c m n r c nils l D i n g l o . n c o u r a s L ' d e r e l o p n roefnatl t t ' r n a l i \ ! ' l i r c lisr .h i l ct u r n i n gi 1 \b a c l o n a p l c n t i l - uslo u r c ct r l l h e n r . " , \ c l d c d t h ! ' l - f i b u n e".l f t h i s n a t i o r i s s e r i o u sa b o u ta f u t u r e i n $ h i c h c i h a n o lr r l a \ sa n c \ c r - g r c a l c rr o l c i n c i r r sa n d t r u c k s .l e t ' sd o i t i n a \ 1 a vt h a t m a k e ss o m ce c o n o m i cs c n s cR . e d u c eo r c l i m i n a t ct h c o{)rrering s u h s i d i eas n d ( a r i f f s .a n dl c t ' sl l n d o u 1i l e i h a n ocl a nr e a l l l b e c o m ra c r c d i b l cc. r n n p d i t i \ ea l l c n r a l i ! el o sasolincrr itlroulthe federallargessthat hasproppedup thc industn 1-ordecades.I.e1lhc nost economrc c l h a f r r \l ! i n . " " T h c t a r i f f D r o t c c t st h c d o m e s t i ce t h a n o li n d u s t r \ . B u t l h a t D r o t e c t i o n c o m e sa t a c o s tt o consumers-!-sp!'ciall\thoscin stalessuchas lexas." lhc SanAnlonio E\prcss-Ne\\'s agrecdin a N'Ia}23 h r ) u s cr d i l o r i a l . P r i c e sH i s h i n N 4 i d $ c s t r , \ ' i t hl h c t a r i f f i n D l a c ce, t h a n o cl u r r e n t l \ c o s t sm o r c n e r g a l l o nt h a n q a s o l i n ee r e n i n r , l a c € n . E I - O - I V i n S i o u xF a l l s S . outh s h e r e c o r n g r o $ s p l e n t i f u l l \ 'K I)akota.ior exanrple.reponcdon Junc l3 cthanol$as scllingat $2.85a gallon-live centsmorc thanregular in the free market. \rith the added bencfil ofbeinq a sasoline. "Ethanol is becominscost-comDetitive c l e a n e r - b u r n i nfgu e l t h a n s a s o l i n e ,H " e a n l a n dI n s t i t u t S e ciencD e i r e c t oJr a yl - e h rs a i d ." B u t e s s c n t i atlo free-marketcomDetitionis the eliminationof Drohibitivcand Drotectionisttariffs. "lf free markels a r c a l l o \ r c dt o o n e r a t e I. b e l i e \ ce t h a n o l$ i l l u l t i m a t c l YD r o v ct o b e a f u e l o f c h o i c ei n A m e r i c a . "s a i d l-chr.

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(2/s) SoLVENCY \\rithout market rcstrictions,the IIS corn-bascdethanolindustry'\1on't be ableto competc rr ith tcchnologicall)efficientsugar-ethanol, as largeamountsof it arc importedhereliom Brazil inagricullural ccottontic:. isa Ph.D. student najoring Zhang,\'edenor',and Wetzstein2007(Zibin Zhang in managenrent scicnccfronr Hohaitinirer.itr. is from l-ianlungang.JiangsuProvince.China.He reccivcdan l\,1.S. Nanjing.China.DnritryVedcno! is an AssistantProi'essor in thc Dcpann'lcnt ofAgricultulal hcononricsat Ic\as . ^ & N ,Ll . n i \c r s i t \ .a n dM i c h a e W l e t z s t e iins a I ' r o f e s s oor1 - A g r i c u l t u raanl dA p p l i e dD c o n o m i casl t h e L l n i \ ' c f s i lo) l Ccorgia."Can the t,.S. ethanolindustr]competein thc altcrnatirellels nrarketl' Aglicultural[conontics\/olunre l l I s s u cI l ) a c c1 0 5 - 11 2 .J u l y2 ( ) 0 7 ) . I he:c |csrrllssuggest n h i c h e o u l dr c o c c u r . [ . S .e t h a n o lr c f i n c r s ' a b i l i t vt o D r i c cc o m p e ( c\ r i t h s u { . : acra n c - b a s ccdt h a n o lr e f i r c r s .W i t h t h c r p a r l e t r e \ ( r i c t i o n si n t h e f o r m 0 1 ' ab a no n M l B E a n dt a r i f f s o n i m D o r t sa. \ r i n d o $ o f o D D o r t u n i t \i s c u r r e n t l \ o D e nf o r t l r c [ , . S .e t h a n o li n d u s t r \ .H o $ e \ e r . n i t h o u t t h e s er e s t r i c t i o nas n d g i \ c n t h e h o m o g e n e o u s D r o d u c tn a t u r eo f e t h a n o lf u e l ,[ , . S .e t h a n o lr e f i n e r s\ r i l l f i n d i t d i f f i c u l tt o c o m p e t c$ i t h l o $ c r n r i c e d s u g a r - c a n c - r e f i n cedl h a n o l c. h i e f l \ f r o m B r a z i l .I n a l l e f i r a n d1- ) p cc o m p e t i l i o nB.r a z i l ' sm o r c l e c h n o l o g i c a l ler f f i c i e n st u g a rc a n er e f i n i n gD r o c e srsr o u l dd u n r Dk r n ' o r i c e de t h a n o lf u c l o n t o t h e [ . S . m a r l e t a n d s q u e c z co u t a n \ [ J . S . c t h a n orle f i n e r s ' m a r k c st h a r e .l f \ \ ' l O a g r c c m c n t s r c s u l l i n ( h e elinrination o f e r i s t i n gU . S .t a r i f f s .o r i t c t h a n orlc l i n c r :b c g i nl o l a k ea d \ a n t a goef t h e C a r i b b c a [n] a s i t r ll]i1iati\edLl1\-1.rccpritrision:onethanoJinlpons.@ m a r k r t . B r a z i lc o u l d b c c o m et h e O I ' [ - C o f c t h a n o l .

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SoLVENCY(3/5) our energ)securitvand lo\rcrsgasprices lmporting sugarethanolfrom Brazil incrcases l i lu g cl:' g .( ) l \ o l l i l \ o l 9 J a n r eS s u r o x i c c k i N o r c n r b e1r 7 . 2 0 0 6 t l c a tS r r c c r c n r rlsh c N c NY o r l c rl ' i n a n c i a L J n f o n u n a t c tl lh. ee t h a n o lD r o d u c e di n t h c L i . S c. o m e sf r o m a l c s s - l h a n - i d csaol ( t r c c c: ( r r n .C l o r n e t h a n o l ' s" n e t c n e r g \ b a l a n c e " - t h ac m o u n to f e n c r g \ i t \ i e l d s i n D r o o o r l i o nt o h o t r m u c h e n c r g Yg o e s into its Droduction-issignilicantlvlo\rer than that of other alternaiives.and moderncont I'arntingisn'l cas) on thc land.B\ contrast.cthanol distilled from sugarcaneis much cheaDerto Droduceand genera(esfar morc encrg\ Der unit of inDut-eighttimes more. b\ most estimales-thancorn does.In ll'le \ugar elltanol for oil. 1'oday.everygallonot ninetcen-seventies. Brlzil errbarkedon a programto substitute gas in Ilrazil is blcndl'd!\ ith at leastt\\cnt) per cenl of (,lhanol.and manycarsrun on cthlrnolalone.at half I n a * o r d . p o J i t i c sT.h e 1 a \ o r sg r a n l e d thcp ' r i c eo f l a s o l i n ! -\.\ ' h a l ' ss t o p p i n tgh c t l . S . l i o n r d o i n gt h es a n t e ? 1 ol h c \ u , l a l i n d u s t r lre c - pt h ep r i c eo f d o m e s t i c. , u g u rs L h r i t h t h a li t ' sn o tc o s t - c f f o c t i ! c 'ut os ci 1J r ) rc t h t r n o l . \rrl tIt trrril!r anrjquolr\ litr inrPortcd\u!;u nrcanlhal no ()nccaniillbrd to inrponlbreirn \ugirr and l!rn i l i n l r .rrt h : r r r r rtl h . r ' \ \ l \ t h a to i l r e l i n c r si n r p t r nc r u d et l o n rt h c N l i d d l cl i a s lt r rn r a k eg a s o l i n cA n t c n c a n rsr o \ \ i r r r p o rct i l h r r n c f c q t t l e s s\ u l u r t h a nt h e \ d i d t h i n \ \ c l r s ! i . : o S . o t h c p r o s p e c l si r r r J r ) r r e s t i . ' \ u g i r r ( l l l r l l l i n d u : t r \r r f cd i n ta t b e J t W . c c o u l d .0 1c ( r u r \ cs. i m o l vi l n D o r ts u g a re t h a n o l .B u l h c r c .l o o . p o l i l i c s h ! \ i n t e r \ c n c d :C o n q r e s sh a si m r l o s c da t a r i f f o f f i f t \ - f o u r c c n t sD e rg a l l o no n s u p : r r - h x s e.d' t h a n o li t l o r d e r t o p r o t e c (c o r n p r o d u c e r sf r o m c o n r p e t i t i o nA r e c c n l s l u d )b ) A m a n iE l o b e i dr n d S i n r l a - l o k g o z . \ c i L ' n t i s at st I o \ \ r S t a t ct J n i r e r s i t yp.r o j e c t c tdh a ti f t h r t a r i f f s $ e r e r c m o v e dD r i c e s$ o u l d f a l l b \ f o u r t c c n D e rr e p t i r n d A m e r i c a n s\ r o u l d u s ea l n r o s lth r c e h u | l d r e dm i l l i o ng a l l o n sm o r c o f e t h a n o l ,I l u rr h i rrr\ n r r J , p c j rt r , b c a ' . . , . r , , ' i , r

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\ l i r \ h .\ \ r . h . , u Lr Jl r ( ) u :(h) u r . u r r . n l p o l i c y r s a b s u r , j c r c n l 1 \ \ a \ h r n S (C, ronn5g(rl n c s( lsiasrnda\ \ i n q b i l l i O n si n \ u b s i d i c st o g c t u J t o u s c m o r ee l h a n o l $ . h i l e L e e D i n gi n D l a c et a r i f f sa n d q u o t a st h a t g u a r a n t c ct h a t \ ! e ' l l u s cl c s s .A n d \ r h i l e m o s to f t h e t i n l e t a r i f f s i u r t m c a n h i g h e rD r i c e sa n d r e d u c c dc o m p e t i t i o ni.n t h c c a s eo f c t h a n 0 lt h e n e g a t i \ ce f f c c t sa r c c o n s i d e r a b lg\ r c a t c r .l e a \ i n gu s s a d d l c d$ i t h a n i n f e r i { ) r . ecause of N n d l e s se n e r g \ - e f f i c i e nt e t c h n o l o g a\ n d a s d e o e n d e nat s e \ c r o n o i l - D r o d u c i ncgo u n t r i c s B t h e e l h a n o lt a r i f f \ . \ i e ' r e i m D o s i n g t a \ c s o n f u c l f r o n r c o u n t r i c st h a t a r e f r i e n d l vt o t h e U . S . .b u t n o l a \ a t a l l o n f u c l f r o m c o u n t r i e st h a t a r e a m o n go u r m o s tr c h c n r e n ot o D o | r c n t C s .o n g r e s s r n t ' n - j u st ht icl l barritr:to1ilrciur't|t:tnir|\i1htalkol...cncrg\'sccurilr,,But@ i m D o r to i l f r o n l ! e n e z u e l ar a t h e r t h a n e t h a n o lf r o n r B r a z i l ?T h e s cl a r i f f s a r e b d d e t o n o I I l i cD o l i c \ .b a d c n e r g \ D o l i c \ .a n d b a d f o r e i g nD o l i c \ .T a l k a h o u tr o u r D t r n r i n o ef'fecl.

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SoLVENCY(4/5) C S N f _ C h r i s r i aS M o i n i t o r 5 ' 1 2 - 0 6( - C o r nl o b b l ' st a l l t a l eo l ' a g a ss u b s t i l u l c ' . n cicnce h t l p : r r$ $ . cs n r o int o r . c o r 1n 0 0 6 ' 0 5 1 1 p 0 8 s 0 l - c o n r \ . h t n r l ) . f o r i n s t a n c es h u t l i n go u t \ c t t h e U S c o n t i n u e st o f o c u sa l m o s te r c l u s i v c t ll o n the irrdustnfrom high and imports throueh hish lariffs. This kccpstJS ethanoll-.rices rr ilh nrorc RcnL:blicurr e f f i c i e nrl . r r i erlr s .A r i u , r n a F t h a n r - hr lo l d sn r o m i s cf o r t h c [ J \ . b u t n o t u n l e s sc o r n - b a s c dn o l i t i c a d l i s t o r t i o n sa r c d i s t i l l c do u t o f i t . O i l a n d G a s J o u r n a l 3 - ' l - 0 6( F u e lD r i c cc r u n c h1 l \ : l . i l i e t h a n otla r i l l a n dc r c d i t . h t t p : p r o q u e s t . u m i . c o m ' p q d r r c b '1l d 0 i1d2 1 6 4 5 6 1 & s i d - 6 & F m t ' 3 & c l i e n1t l5d6=6 &R Q l 3 0 9 & V N a n r' eP Q I )) SuDnlenlente a tl h a n o ls u D p l i eas r e a \ a i l a b l ei n t r a d e .B u t m o s ti m D o r t c de t h a n o lc o m e s$ i t h a 5 . 1 c / e a l d r a i nc t h a n obl l e n d c di n l o g a s o l i n c t a r i f f a t o p a n o r m a ld u t \ b a s e do n \ a l u e . I ) o m e s l i c a l lp\ r o d u c e g | c c ( i r c sa 5 l c g a l t a x c r c d i l .l - - l h a n o su l p p o r l e rssa ) l h e t o r i f f k e e p sU S t a x p a l e r sl i o r r p r o ! i d i n ga n incr''ntilc'trricclbrtheirproduct'\\'jthWiti|Gi!eaew votrdfft;lniffi rhescrhing\do ro add up. So }}hal's to be donr rbout consu[rcr gasolineDriccslhi\ \ c a r i f I l A ' s f e a r sc o n l ct r u c ? A r e a d \ f i \ i s t o l i f t t h e t a r i f f o n c t h a n o li m o o r ( s T . h c t t .r i h c t h c t r t ' t t r r t rcdLrndant inccnlircsarc the problenrethanolsupfonerssa) thc) are.thc nc\t thing to so shouldbc tbc 1a>i s€dit. \\'i1h$h0lcsalcgasolineprices\\hcre th!') are.ethanolproduccr\don'tnccd it. Z h a n g . \ ' c d e n o \ ' , a n d \ \ ' e t z s t e i n 2 0 0 7 ( l i b i n l h u n ! i s a I ) h . l ) .s r u d c nnl r a j o r i n irn a g .i rc i r l l u rli e c o n , r n r i e . . i s l i r r r r I i a n r u n { a n g . . l i l n g sl )Lr ro r i n c c(.' h i n a .I { c r c c e i i r dl n i \ 1 . Si.n n r a n a g c n c nr sl i e n c ci i o n r U o h a it n i t c r ' i t - r . \ a D i i n r -C . h i n a .D n r i t r \\ ' r d e n o \ i ' a n . , \ s s i s l aIn) lr o k s s o irn l h ( .D c f a r l r n c not l ' , \ r . : r ' i e u l t uLrcaol n o t n i cast I c r a i \&\1 t 'ri\!'rsjt\a . n d\ l i c h a c l\ \ ( 1 , / \ r { r iin\ a l ) r o l i s s o or 1 ' , \ girc u l t u r aal n dA | p l i c d i . c o n o m i casl t h c U I t i \ c f s i l \o l (j('1)l'!ii).t.rnlhcI,sclhan()]industt1cL,tlpeteiI]1htilll(lni]li\('jilc'|sntar|ct''..Agrictr)ttrra| l - l s s r r |c | a g e 1 0 5 - l l l . . l u l l1 0 0 7 ) \\ ith thc markct rcstrictionsin the fo rrn ol$m4q$i,ffii!! tariffs on inroorls, a rr indon of ( ' n D { ) r t u n i ti\s c u r r e n l l r o n e nf o r t h e U . S .c t h a n o li n d u s t r \ . H o \ r e \ c r .\ r i l h o u t t h c s er e s t r i c t i o nas n d g i \ e n t h c h o m o g e n e o unsr o d u c tn a t u r eo f e t h a n o lf u c l . [ . . S .c l h a n o lr c f i n c r l 1 1 i l l i n d i t d i f l i c u l tt o c o m p c t c\ r i t h l o $ c r D r i c e ds u g a r - c a n e - r e f i n e c dt h a n o l c. h i c f l \ f r o m B r a z i l .l n a l l c r t r a n d1- \ f c . L r D r l c l i l i o nB.r a z i l ' sm o r e t e c h n o l o g i c a l cl \f f i c i e n l5 u g a rc a n er e f i n i n gD r o c c s\si o u l d d u m D l o \ r - l ) r i c t d c l h a n o lf u c l o n t o l h e [ J . S .n r a r k e ta n d s q u c c z eo u t a n \ ( i . S .e t h a n o lr e f i n e r s n ' r a r k c ls h a r e .I f W T O l l g r e c m e n trse s u l ti n t h e e l i m i n a t i o no f e \ i s t i n pU , S .t a r i f f s .o r i 1 - ! ' l h a nror l i n ! ' r sb e s i nt o t a k e . r d ! a r ) l f r ! c ( r l l h r C , r r i b b e aBna s i nl n i t i a l i r vd u l ) - l i e ep r o \ i s i o n so n r ' 1 h a D ionl r p o r l sl o . r r - n I i c e dB r a z i l i l n e l h a n 0 ln t a r L r . S . l l o o ( lt h c n l a r k c t .I l r a z i lc o u l d b c c o m et h e O P I C ' o f c l h a n o l .

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INH- Tariffsimpedebiofuelsmarket lmport tariffs impedethe biofucls market W a l l S t r e e t J o u r n a l , t - t l - 0 7 ( ( i l o h n l I : c o n o n r \ r ( ) \ c f l ul roLI 'l:r e z i l S h ol\) i l l r r i n !L l h u n oI ln l c r e \ 1 ' : . l i r I {i rt r r' h c ' r ( ) S . c L r rS! u p p l L ) ) . a l \b- u lt . S .\ l o \ r \ I i l l l cl : l c ) o n Ida l k . && c l i' n c r rl l l d ' 1 5 6 6 & l i Q. ll{ ) 9 & \ ' \ r n r rl ' ( . ) l ) ) l ) 1 1 fp, :r o q u c u s lr r i . c o np)q d \ \ c h ' l j i d = 1 1 5 5 7 0 6 1 6 1 & s i d =l 6 l.asr\car. thc Ll.S.rras Ilrazil'sbiggestexpon market1brethanol.Ilut 11ith Droductionofcorn-bascd e t h a n o li n t h e U . S .r a m r r i n gu p . s o m ee x o e r t st h i n k U . S ,i m n o r t sc o u l df a l l s t e e o l ti t t 2 0 0 7 .B r a z i l s l i l l h o D e st h e U . S .\ r ' i l ld r o D a n e t h a n o lt a r i f f o f m o r c t h a n 5 0 c e n t sa g a l l o n .W h i l c M r . B u s h ' so f f c r t o l l r a z i l o f a " s l r a l e p i cn a r t n e r s h i p "i n ( l h a n o l r r a s n ' tf o l l o 1 1 c hd r c o n c r e t en r o o r r r a l sM. r C u \ 1 3' a \ \ Petrobras hashad centact\.rilhofficialsin Califbrniaand \\ith forrnerI'loridaGov. JebBush.Duringa visit Ethanol brotherand co-chainnanofthe Interamcrican to 13razillesterdal. N'Ir.Bush.the prcsident's producers canc-cthanol Conrnrission. againcalledfor the U.S.to elinrinatcthe tariff. tellinga groupo1'sugari n S a oI ) a u l ot h a lt h e t a \ m a d c " n o s c n s c "a n d $ a s i m D e d i n gt h e b i o f u e l sm a r k e t . ' f h ei d c l l h a l h a l f o f l l r a z i l ' se \ D o r t e de l h a n o lc o u l de n d u D i n . l a p a n i s n ' ts u r l r i s i n gs. a l sN ' l a r c oJsa n k .p r e s i d e notf l h c 'l a think lank herc.Japanis "llle oni\ counlr) IlrazilianInstitutelor Intr'rnaiional radeNegotialions. . "' l rJ. a n Ls a r s . i n t r o d u c i nagc o n \ u n r D l i onnr o r r a n ur i t h o u lh i r r i n {a n r d o n r c s l ipc r o d u c l i o r tN

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INH- Tariffsdestroyfreetrade and undermineglobalfree tradc LIStrade barriershurt competitiveness (irisn old.Stephen to Kill l:ann 2006 SixRcasons I)rebleFcbruaq Danicl SlivinskiandChristophcr i6207.h1nrl Subsidiesand TradeBarricrsA no-nonsense refbrnrstralegli http:,"'uuu.reason.comherls,shorr rrlo Liscagricttlturalinputsrtould I)roduccrs\\ho expon goodsto thc rcsl oflhc rvorldand manufacturers alsostandto bcncfitsignificantllfionr larnrrclorm.So rrould thcir emplolees.!!94-991314491.! intcrrcntiorl raiscsdomeslicDricesfor ral,| materialsand othcr commodities.it imDoseshighcr costson " d o r r n s t r c a m "u s c r si n t h e s u D o hc h a i n ,T h o s ch i g h e rc o s t sc a n m c a nh i g h e rp r i c e sf o r c o n s u m e r s . reduccdglobal competitivencss for American exportcrs.lorrer sales,lessinvestment.and ultimatelr feuer cmDloYmentoDDortunitiesand lo$er paY in the affectedindustries.Adificialll high contmoditl pricesdrile domesticproducersabroadto seekchcaperinputs--oroul oIbusinessaltogethcr.In the laslt\\o d e c a d e s . t h e n u m b e r o f s u g a r r e f i n e r i e s i n t h c U . S . h a s d u i n d l e d l i o m 2 i t olcairgghet l.lb e c a t t soel t h e ol'.iobshalc becnlost in thc doubledpriceofdomesticra\\ sugar.Duringthe lastdccadethousands conltctional industq. uith losscsespc'cialllhearl in thc Chicagoarea.Iixpensivelixrd alsohuns rcslaurants. Lnterprises outsidethe fbod busincssrroLrldbcnclltfiom lann relbnn as u cll. Rich countrics' t b s t a c l et o a c o m D r c h c n s i r\e\ ' o r l d ' l ' r a d e a g r i c u l t u r a l r a d e b a r r i e r sr e n r a i nt h c s i n g l cg r e a t c s o Ore:rnization(r'TOlagrcementontradclibcralization.'lhccurrenlfolrndoftalks.tlt!'Doha I ) c r e l o p r r c nRl o u n dc. a n r el o a h a l ti n C a n c u ni n l 0 0 l \ ! h c nt h c C r o u po l 1 0 d c r c l o p i n tc o u n t r i c s An) progr.ssal Ll! dcnrandeti n'rorcserioLrs falnrlefonr br thc rich counlricsa: an cssrntialpre-condition. I ) e ! c n l b e1r 0 0 5l r e e l i n gi n I { o n gK o n ga n db c l o n d$ i l l d e p c n do n r c a lp r o g r e sisn c u t l i n g[ ] . S .l a r n r s u b : i d i ca s n dt r a d eb a r r i e r :r.\ s u c c c s s l li l) o h aI l o u l d r r o u l dl o r r c rt r a d cb a r r i c r sf o r a u h o l r : : r a t l t o l l nt] i n { l u \ l f i r lp f o d u c t s a nsde r r i c e sA. 2 0 0 1s t u d l h r D l u s i l l l B r o \ \ nl t I u 1 i s[ . i n i r c r s i tal n dA i a n D c a l d o r l u I l o b c nS l e r nr t t h c L j n i \ e r s i t o) l N l i c h i g a sns t i n r ie d l h a tc r c l a o n e - l h i r cr .ui l i n t a r i l l ' \o n a g r i c u l l u t c . b iTl l i o ni n t h c i n d u : t n . a n d s e r r i c c s t o u l d b o o s t a ngnl o ub aa l pl r o d u c t i obnr S 6 l - lb i l l i o ni.n c l u d i n g S J T 's I r r i r c ,Sl t a t c s - - oarb o u lSI . 7 0 0p e rA n r c r i c a h n o u J c h o l dS.o m co f t h c c o un t r \ n o s t c o m p e l i t i c\ s c c t o r s . i n c l u d i n gi n f o r m a t i o nt e c h n o l o g \f.i n a n c i a sl c r \ i c e s i.n s u r a n c ea. n d c o n s u l t i n gD. r o b a b l \\ r o u l d i n c r e a s ct h e i r s h a r co f g l o b a lm a r k c l si f t h c D o h a l l o u n d \ 1 e r es u c c c s s f uFl .a r m r e f o r m r c m a i p st h e kcL A cornnronargumcntagainsllibcralizationi:,that llre tJ.S.shoLrld hold onlo its agriculturallarifli as .l-hc 'ba|gaining srnilalctallr. c h i p s "i n \ \ ' T O n e g o t i a t i o n s . r i o r n j s t h a ti 1 ' r r c ' ! \ c ftco d i s n r a n t loeu r b a r r i e r L $ould not o t h r rc o u n t r i e$so u l d I o s ca n l i n c e n t i r e1 og i r c u p t h e i r s .I l L r rl c d u c i n gD r o t c c t i o n i s m t ) r i r n a r i l \b e a " c o n c e s s i o nt"o o t h c r c o u n t r i e ! ,l t $ o u l d b c a f l \ o r l o o u r s c l \ c s l.n t h e D r o c c s s \ r c \ r o u l d s c l a g o o dc l a m D l ca n d c r c a t eg o o d$ i l l i n g l o b a ln c g o ( i a t i o n si n. \ i l i n g o t h c r c o u r t r i t s l o i o i t i u : i n r c a l i z i n pt h e b e n e f i l so f l o \ r c r d o m e s t i cf o o d c o s 1 s .

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INH- Tariffsneedto be removedto solvedependence from oil - lariff Fueland costinefficicntcorn ethanolis impedingour indcpcndence rcductionsare neededto import Braziliansugarcthanol C--SN'l_C hristianScienceMoinitcrr 5- 12-06f Com l(rbb)'stall taleo1a gas5ub5titulc. h l l p : u u \ . cs n r o int o r . c o m1 0 0 60 - sl 2 r p ( ) 8 s 0 l - c o n r v . hl )t m A n r e r i c ai s s r r o o n i n o g v e re t h a n o lt .h cr e n e u a b l lei r c lr v h i c hi.n t h c U S . i s d c r i v e dl i o m c o r n .P r e s i d e nBl u s h predicls ethanol !r ill reDlacegasoline.Congresshasrnandated nearlydoublingits production.Ilut \o lar. e l h a n oils n t o r ep o l i t i c st h a np r o n r i s eO. v e rt h en c r l f i r . 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INH- Tariffspreventimporting Realll qualified scholarsn elcomevou to Inherencp'illc.I'opulation:this card. AnraniElobcid is lhe intemationalsugarandethanolanall'stu ith thc Foodand AgriculturalI'olicl Rescarch I n s l i t u t (el . A P R l ) a tI o \ \ aS t a t eU n i v e r s i tr)r h or c c e ' i r ead U . S .i n e c o n o n i c sJ i o mt h c [ i n i \ e r s i t ]o f K h a r l o u m . . n cal P h . D .i n c c o n o n r i cf sr o n tI S t - I a. n d S i n r l a ' f o k g o z S u d a na. n \ 4 . S .i n c c o n g n t i cfsr o n rl o r v aS t a t et J n i \ c r s i l i a (l:AI)lll)al i s t h c i n r c r n a l i o ngarl a i na n dc t h a n oal n a l y sut i t h t h c [ : o o da n dA g r i c u l t u r aI \l r l i c yR e s e a r clhn s t i l u t e I o \ a S t a l eU n i r . c l s i t$l h o r e c e i v e ad B . S .d c g r e ci n l : c o n o n r i cf sr o m M i d d l eE a s tT c c h n i c atlJ n i \ e r s i t i)n I L r f k e \ Ocrobcr2006 "Renrovalof tjS Uthanol and ilnishedher Ph.D.in Ilconomicsat Nonh CarolinaStatct.Jniversity. Dontcslicand Tradc Disbnions: Impacton US and BrazilianEthanolMarkcts"Centerlbr Agriculturaland Rural l)e\eloonrenrhlrD: 66.I 02.l l 0'l,rscholar?hl=en&lr...ethanol-tariff t s * e l l a sa n i m p o r t d u t r T h c U . S .t r a d e p o l i c l -o n e t h a n o li n c l u d e sa n a d r a l o r c m t a r i f f o f 2 . 5 p e r c e n a of s.lc Dcr gallon.One of the obiectivesof the tariff is to ensurethat the benefitsof the domesticU.S. cthanol ta\ crcdit do not accructo foreign Droducers.The other imDortanttradc Dolic\ that affects c t h a n o li m p o r t si s t h c C a r i b b e a nB a s i nE c o n o m i cR e c o v c r \A c t ( C B L R A )t h a t g r o u D SC e n t r a l A m r r i c a n c o u n t r i e s$ i t h C a r i b b e a nc o u n t r i e sT. h i s A c t c r e a t t dt h e c u r r e n t i m p o r t r u l e sf o r c t h a n o l u n d c r t h e C a r i b b e a nB a s i nI n i t i a l i v e( C B l ) . U n d e r t h i s a e r e e m e n ti .f e t h a n o li s p r o d u c e df r o m a t l e a s t 5 0 D e r c e nat g r i c u l t u r a fl e e d s t o cgk r o $ n i n a C B I i R A c o u n l r \ . i t i s a d m i t t c di n t o t h e U . S .f r c e o f d u l \ . l l ' d u t l - f r e e t h a n o lT. h e a m o u n to f I l t h c l o c a ll e e d s t o ccko n t e nits l o r r c r 'l .i m i t a t i o nasp p l l o n t h eq u a n t i t o c l h a n o lt h a t c a n b c i m D o r t e dd u t r - f r e et h a t i s p r o d u c c df r o m n o n - C B E R Aa g r i c u l t u r a fl c e d s t o c ki s r e s l r i c t e dt o 6 0 m i l l i o ng a l l o n so r 7 p e r c c n to f t h e [ ] . S .d o m c s { i ce t h a n o lm a r k e t .$ h i c h e r e ri s s r t a l e r ' 'Iir c o n r p l r\ \ i t h t h i sr e q u i r e n e nht .\ d r o u se l h a n oilr i n r p o r t etdo a C [ ] l c o u n t n a n di s d c h lc l r a t e bd c l i [ e i t p l a n l sa r ec L r r r r n l lor P e | a l i n iun ( l l l l c o u n l r i ! 'lsi k eJ t n t a i c aC. o \ l r r c u nl ) cc \ p ( ) r 1 ! '1d0t h c t i . S . D c h l d r a t i o n I l i c l . a n c Il . l S a l r a d o ru. h c r c h y d r o u sc t h a n opl r o d u c t di n o l h e f c o u n l r i c h s .i s t o r i c a l lBl r a z i l a n dI u r o p c . r r n b . d c h \ d r a l c db e i b r ei t i s e r p o n e dt o t h c L S . ( \ ' a c o b u c c 1i .1 ) 0 6 b l)n. 1 0 0 5 .I I . S .c l h a n opi r o d u c t r o n c r p a c i r \\ a s J . - lb i l l i o ng a l l o n sl i o n r9 5 c l h a n orl c t l n e r i e sC.a p r c i l rt r p r n s i o nl o l a l c d0 . 1 b i l l i r r ng a l l o n : . \ \ h i l . c r p . r c i l )u n d e rc o n - . 1 r . u c triroans l . [ J b i l l i o n g a l l o nIs: .l h a n r rpl r o d u c t i ocno n s u n t c ld. - l b i l l i o nl r u s l t c l s o l c o r n{ a b o u ll l . 6 p e r c c n0t 1[ ] . s . c o r np r o d u c t i o ni n ) 1 0 0 5 :l . l b i l l i o nb u s h e los f c o r na t t c \ | c c l e dl o l , u t i l i z c db r l 0 l 5 ( a b o u 2l . 1 . 9p e r c c nol l ' a 1 i b i l l i o nb u s h ccl r o p ) .I h u s .e t h a n o lp r o d u c t i o nh a sa l r c a d \ ( \ c e e d c dt h c 2 0 0 6t a r g c to f t h c r e n c $ a l ) l cf u e l sn l a n d a l c D . c s p i t et h c r a D i di n c r e a s ci n p r o d u c t i o n . cop\unlDtion o f e t h a n o lh a sh c e no u l 0 a c i n qD r { ) d u c l i { )fno r t h c D a r l f c \ r \ c a r s -\ r h i c h h a sl c d 1 o i n c r r r s e di n r D r ) r ti\n ( o t h c L . S .

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INH- Tradebarriersfosterterrorism I S farm barricrs causepo\ erf] and resentment, foslcringterrorism I)aniel Prchlc 2006 'Si\Rcxs()n:, to KillI arol Grisrrold.Srephcn I ebrLrary SlivinskiandChrisrophcr Subsidiesand TradellarriersA no-nonsense ne\rs\ho\! i(rl()7.htnrl refonnstral.'g\"http: rru u .reason.conr h t t p : u $ r r . r c a s o n . c o n ct \ \ ' ss h o $ i 6 2 0 7 . h l m l 'fhe c o l l e c t i \ ee f l e c to f A m e r i c a nf a r m D o l i c i e iss t o d e D r c s tsh e i n c o m eo f a g r i c u l t u r a ln r o d u c e r s \rorld\ride. eraccrbatingDo\ertv in areas.suchas sub-Saharan Africa and CentralAsia.uhere pcoplcarc' hcavilvdependenlon agriculture. A m e r i c a ns e c u r i t \ .M a n Y r r e o D lre h o d e D e n do n a p r i c u l t u r ef o r l h e i r s u r v i \ a l .b o t h a s a s o u r c eo f n o u r i s h m e nat n d l l m e a n so f a c o u i r i n g$ e a l t h .D e r c e i r eU . S .f a r m D o l i c va s D a r t o f a n a p t i - A m c r i c a n n a r r a t i \ e i n r r h i c h\ \ ' a s h i n g t o n$ a n t s t o k c e pt h c r c s l o f t h e $ o r l d l o c k e di n o o v e r t \ ,l n d e r . ' di n. a sLrr\c\ol rnli-Anrcricanscntimcntaroundthe rrorld.lbe Pe\r Rcsearch Centerlbund a maioritr rrl t'csptltldentsjnl]]orethanadozencounlriesrrcrcctlnrincc'ilthat@ " D o r c r t \ e i r n " r r o r l d r r i d €T. h e s es e n l i m c n t st r a n s c c n d c g d e o g r a D h i cc.t h n i c ,r ) r r c l i e i o u sb o u n d i r r i e s . I n s u c ha n e n \ i r o n m e n l .t e r r o r i s tr i n g l c a d c r \f i n d f e r t i l cg r o u u df o r t h c i r n l f \ \ a g e( , f h a t ea n d \ iolcncr.

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'l6l07.htnrl S u t r s i d i casn dT r l d c B a r r i e r s . \n o - n o n s c n sr cel o r ms t r a l c g l l r t t p : " \ r \ \ \ \ . r e a s o n . cnocr u n ss h o r t practicesthat damagc I hc'distortionsand per\crseincenti\esrrI U.S. agriculturalpolicicshavecncouraged lhc cn\ ironn)!'n1.I radebarriersand subsidicsstinrulatcproductionon nrarginalland.leadingto or'eruscoi effluents.A centralil unstatedpurpr)scol'Amcricanlamr polic) is to ncsticidc\.lcrlilizcrs.and othr"'r pfonrolcproductionol conrnrodities thaturruld ncrlbe econonrical underconrpctitive.freenrarkctcordititrrt'. I h i s o l i e nn r c a n e snrphasizin ol n r o r cc h c n r i c aals s i s t a n cOc v. e r u s e c reo p sb e ( c r g r o u n c l s e s h e r cr.e q u i r i n g l'cnilizcrsand pcsticidesaddsto rLutoffthatpollutcsrivers.lakcs.andoccans.Accordingto the World Resotrrces Instilutc.agricullureis thc biggestsourccol-riverand lakepollutantsin the LlnitedSratcs.A slLrdi hr thc I--nrironrrcntalProlcclionAgencl liund that ?) pcrcento1'U.S.rjversand 5b perccnlol lakesit s u r \ e \ e ds u l l c ff r o ma g r i c u l t u r c - r e l apr eodl l u t i o nA. r c a ro f $ e C i L r l f o l ' f v l c x ihcaor c b e c o n r "cd e a dz o n c s hecauscol'the runotTfiolr tarmsin the Midricsl. F-rcn\\'hcreltnilizers andpe'sticidcs are nol uscd inlcnsirclr. lhc n1crcact ol plou ine soil clinrinalesiir'.st and grassco\ er. Ieavinrsoil e\losed li)r \\ c'('Ls.!1 . i l i r l l ! ' i r n ar ul l n r ' r a b lteo c r o : i o n I. ] o s i c ' nc a nb u i l du p s i l l i n n c a r b rr i r e r sa n dd o * n s t r e a m l i r l c s .I ) o m c s l i t \ u g r r t r o t c c t i o nh a \ m d i n l a i n e da c o n c c n l r a t i o n o f O r o d u c c r si n c c n t r ! l F l o r i d ar l h o h r \ c u s r d u D \ r a t t r f r o n l l h c c n d a n g c r c dF l o r i d aE \ c r g l a d e s$ h i l e s D i t t i n gh a c k D h o s D h o r o uc so n t c n tl a r a b { ) 1 e( h e l e \ e lc o n s i s t c n t $ i l h m a i n t a i n i n q t h e s u r r o u n d i n g e c o s \ s t c m , T h t ' h i e h r u n o t f h a srsccdr ui ocuc sdl r p e r i p h \ t o n .s u c ha s a l g a r .t h a t s u r r D o r tbsi r d s a n d o t h c r a n i m r l l i f c .( ' o n g r t ' shsa ss p e n b t i l l i o n s1 0f c f . r i r l l l i d i r l r l r . rcr ,: r L r r e1,ol t h c I r r : t g l a d ebsr t h c n i o t e c l c rsl L r , : ai nr d u ' r r r .

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INH- CornethanolimpedesUS biofuelscompetitiveness (.orn basedcthanolproductionprcvcntsthc [iS ethanolindustr.r'from heing internationalllcompetitive- corn ethanolsucks Zhang,Vedenor,and Wetzstein2007(ztainlhan-g inarricultural isa Ph.D. sluderrl nraioring ccononrius. i s l i o m l - i a n r u n g a n Jgi.a n g s u P r o v i n c eC. h i n a H . c r c c c i r c cal n M . S .i n n r i r n a g c n r es nc ti c n c rl i r r n r o h a i[ ] n i r e l r i t r . N a n j i n gC . h i n a .D n r i l n V e d e n o vi s a n A s s i s t a nPl r o f c s s oi fn l h c f ) c p a r l n r e n o tf A g r i c u l l u r aIl c c r n o n r i ca sl l c r a r A & M t r n i \ c r s i t ) .a n dM i c h a e W l e t z s t e iins a P r o l l s s oor l A g r i c u l t u r aaln dn p p l i e dF . c o n o n ] i ac {st h c L l n i r e r s i tol l ' (ieorgia."Can the tJ.S.cthanolindustryconpetein lhe alternativcfuclsmarket'l'AgriculturalEconomicsVolumc 3 7 l s s u cI P a g cI 0 5 -11 1 .J u l y2 0 0 7 ) The lrorring denrandfor elhanolis stimulatingan incrsascin llre conslruclion01-ne\\clhanolrcfinerirsand e r p a n s i oo n f e r i s t i n gr e f i n e r i e sT.u e h e n e n e l h a n o lr e f i n e r i c sr r c r e b u i l t i n 2 0 0 { a l o n cl D i n n e c n1. 0 0 5 ) . l l o \ \ e \ c r .a l l o f t h e s er e f i n e r i ecso n t i n u el o r e l v o n t c c h n o l o e i c a l ln\ o r e e f f i c i e n u l s eo f s u e r r c a n e .C o r n v i c l d sl r s ss u q a rD c ra c r c t h r n s u g a rc i r n c .a n d i n r c f i n i n l lu l i c ss u b l t a n t i a !l m o u n t so f e n e r g \ . f ] r c o m p a r i s o n .r o s et t h a n ( p ) lr o d u c t i o inn B r a z i l .t h c l a r g c s r uorld cthanol producerand exponer. is bascd(\n \uslr cane. ln coirtrast.!Is_t!!.1!g?I_93!g-i!gg!tl-llg! l i t t l e i n c c n t i r ct o d i r c r r i f r i n t o c t h a n o lr c f i n i n g .S u g a ri n r n o r (o u o t a ss u l r n o r tt h c l i . S . d o m e s t i cs u g a r D r i c c s\ r c l l a b o \c \ r o r l d l e v e l sa. n d U . S .c \ D a n s i o no I s u g a rc a n ca c r e a g ei s l i m i t € d .\ l i t h t h i s l a c k o f D I i \ a l . ' m a r k e l i n t e r e s tt.h e 2 0 0 5E n e r g \ B i l l a u t h o r i z e da f c d c r a l l \ f u n d c dt h r c e - \ e a rd e m o n s t r a t i o n rcfincrv for rcfining ethanol from sugar cane.Houcvcr. as indicatedb) l\'lcNe\\and Crillith (20{)5):ll!s a l ) o \ e - n o r m arl c t u r n ss t i m u l a t i n gt h i s r c f i n e r vc o n s t r u c t i o n i sa \ a r e u n l i k e l \ t o b e s u s t a i n a b l c . ' I ' hm b e a c l a s s i cC o u r n o tc o m D e t i t i vrcn a r k e ls t r u c t u r cl e a d i n {t o a s u t } s t a n t i adlr o r ri n D r i c cc s D e c i a l li\f l o $ c r c o s tc t h a n o li m D o r t sa r e a b l e1 ( )p e n e t r a t rr h e L , S . d o m c s t i cm a r k c t .I : l b a n orlc l i n t ' r sh a rc a n o o u n c ! 'pd) a n ro r h i r r cc ( n n p l e l ecdo n s t r u c t i oonl r c l i n c l i c si n I : 1S a l \ a d o rJ. a m a i c al.r i l i d u d l n d l - o b a g o . t n d I ) a n a r n aI .h c s cI c l i n c r i c sa r r cd c s i g n c tdo l a l . i r r l r r r n l a rr:rcl ' t h et I . S .d u t \ - l l c ci r n p o n a l i ( ron1 - 1 . 1n0r i l r a l o l c l l ) l r l r oLl r n J ctrh c C r r i b b c a nI ] a s i nl n i t i a t i r c( l i l l i \ l o n .l ( 1 0 5 ) l i \ c n \ r i t h ( h c r \ i \ t i n ! i n t r ) o r lt a r i t f s . l ( ) 0 J \ a \ r a m a r l i e di n c r e r r sien c l h a n o li m p ( ) r r \f f l ) n r l l r l l z i l ,l o I l l n t i l ! a l ( l ) i n n c ! n . : ( l { 1 5 )T. h u s ,\ r i l h l l r c j r u $ t n g [ . \ . d c m a n df o r ( l h a n o l c r ( : r l i f l ! a n : l t l r a ( t i \ r . t l r t ( . t f o r i 0 r n o r t r r \ .l h c I . : . ( ( l l r n r r l i n d u s t r \ m a \ a g a i nf i n d i t s e l fn r i c e - c o m l l e t i nrgri t h l c s sc o s t l \ a l t c r n r t i \c s .

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INH- Cornethanolhurtingeconand reducingexports Corn cthanolproductionreducescxportsfrom thc LlS,hurting the globaleconomt LcslcrR. Bro$'n Januaq.1.2007 loundero1'rhcWorld$alch Institulcand founcierand prcsidentof the [:anh -IO d 'lA\ l 1 ' I . , I \)\ ' O T I N F L J I : IC - A R SV A S I ' I - Y L I N D E R SA I ) O I i CI}N S t i I U"I D C I S I ' I I - L E R YD D i \ 4 A N DI ' O R G R A I N I l c I ' a c i n gl l i g h e s tG r a i nP r i c e si n I l i s l o n " h t t p : u u $ . e a r t h - p o l i c l . o r g ' t J p d a2t0c0s 7 ' L l p d a t e 6 3 . h n n I n a d d i t i o n ,e a s i h 2 0 0 c t h a n o lp l a n t sr e r e i n t h c p l a n n i n ss t a e ca t t h c c n d o f 2 0 0 6 .l f t h c s e t r a n s l a t c i n t o c o n s t r u c t i o ns t a r t sb e t $ e e n. t a n u a r \ | a n d J u n e J 0 . 2 0 0 7 .a t t h e s a m er a t e t h a t D l a n t sd i d d u r i n g t h c f i n a l s i r m o n t h so f 2 0 0 6 .t h e n a n a d d i t i o n a3l b i l l i o ng a l l o n so f c a p a c i t \r e o u i r i n g2 7 m i l l i o nm ( ) r c tons oferain \iill likelv comeonline bl SeptemberI. 2008.the startofthe 2008 harvest)ear. This raises bl tJSDA. lhis u'ould the corn neededfor distilleriesltl 139million tons.halfthe 2008 harvestpro-iecled r i e l d n e a r l lr5 b i l l i o n g a l l o n s o f e t h a n o l . s a t i s l i i n g 6 p c r c e n t o f l , . S . a nu e leodf su( .A en l dt l r i se s t i m a t c plantsstanedaher Junc30. 2007.that *ould be finishedin time to drau on the 2008 dor'snot includr-'an1 harrcst.)Thiu s n p r c c c d c n t eddi v e r s i o no f t h c r r o r l d ' s l e a d i n sg r a i n c r o p l o t h c D r o d u c t i o no f f u e l n i l l affecl food pricesevert*here. As the rrorld corn tricc rises.so loo do thoseoftheal and ricc. both b e c a u s co f c o n s u m e sr u b s l i t u t i o n a m o n qg r a i n sa n d b e c a u s tch c c r o D sc o m D c t ef o r l a n d . B o t h c o r n a n d \ \ h e a t f u t u r c s$ c r e a l r c a d \ t r a d i n ga t l 0 - \ e a r h i g h si n l a t e2 0 0 6 .T h e L j . S c. o r n c r o D .a c c o u n t i n gl b r 1 ( l D c r c e no t f t h c g l o b a lh a r \ c s ta n d s u D D l \ i n q7 0 D e r c e not f t h c $ o r l d ' ! i c o r p e \ D o r t s .l o o m sl a r g c i n t h e r r o r l d f o o d c c o n o m t .A n n u a l L . S . c o r n e r D o r t so f s o n r e5 5 m i l l i o nt o n sa c c o u n tf n r n c a r l r o n c f o u r l h t t f r r0 r l d g r a i n e r n o r l s .T h e c o r n h a n e s to f l o r ra a l o n e .u h i c h c d g c so u t I l l i n o i sa s t h c l c a d i n gD r o d u c t r . e \ c c c d st h e e n t i r eq r a i n h a r i e s (o f C a n a d a ,S u b s t a n t i a l l r\ e d u c i n et h i s e \ D o r t f l o $ \ r o u l d s e n ds h { ) c k \ 1 a \ c st h r 0 u g h o u t h c $ o r l d c c o n o m \

c NDI lkll-9 Rc!:ents

lliolirclsAll' 46',?22

INH- Cornethanolkillingeconand raisingfood prices ( orn basedcthanoldrivesup food pricesand lvorsensfuel economl Thc Atlanta ,Iournal-Constitution 2006(RICIHARD \rrirer Il. SAN4S: lortheJournal-Conslirution. I)on'l \\or\cDcr)r'r'o\crisis:LthanolPlan$ould strair)\raler.crops"Jull I8. 20t)6.ir.'rjs) I i l h a n o ln r o d u c t i o ni s f u c l i n gh i g h e rf o o d D r i c c s'.\ l r n o s tl 5 p e r c e nol l A m c l i c a ' cs o r nc r o p- - - l . l 5 b i l l i o l bushcls--- i-snorr going into ethanolproduclion.This haspushcdup com pricesby as muchas 30 percent. l l l e c t i n , ga i r i d er a r i e t l o l l b o d i l c n r sl. h c D e p a r t m e nol f A p r i c u l t u r ch a sl r a r n e d t h a t a s f a r m e r sp a Y rnore to fced their cattlc, hoesand chickens,meat Driccs\1ill risc as rrell. Consumershave reasonlo bc c o n c e r n e dl .f e t h a n o l l r c r c t o D r o v i d eo n l v I D e r c e not f o u r n a t i o n ' se n e r q vn e e d st,h a t $ o u l d q o b b l e u p p o r c t h a n 1 $ o - t h i r d so f t h e U , S ,c o r n n r o d u c t i o nd, r i \ i n g u D t h o s ef e e dc o s t se v e nI n o r e .L o n q b c f o r ( t h a t h a o n e n sa. s l r i t h t o d a \ ' sc u r r e n ts a s o l i n eD r i c c st,h e r e$ i l l b e a n u b l i co u t c r \ o y e r u n a c c e p t a b lh\ i g h f o o d n r i c c s T . h e g o \ , e r n m c nst u p p o r t st h e D r o d u c t i o no f e t h a n o ln i t h a s u b s i d \o f 5 l c e n l sn e r g a l l o n .E \ c n $ i t h t h i s s u b s i d \ .e t h a n o li s t o o e \ p c n s i \ cb c c a u s e t h c r c i s o n c - t h i r dl c s s e n e r g \ i n a g a l l o no f c t h a n o lt h a n t h c r c i ! i n a p a l l o no f { a s o l i n c .T h i s t r a n s l a t c tr o a 1 5 n c r c e ' ndt r 0 r ri n l u c l c c o n o m rr r h e na u l o sr u n o n L 8 5 - - - 8 5 p c r c c net t h a n o ll.- i p e r c e ngt a s o l i r eI.l v e nr r i t hr e l i r i r f r r l a l e c l r a s o l i n ca. b l c n do l - 1 0p e r c c nct l h a n o lr.c t a i lr a s p r i c c su o u l d i r cl 0 c c n l sl c s st o d t \ i l n o r l i r r t h ep o l i t i c u l l r i r t l l L r . ' r t t d, .cdc i s i c 'bn) ( t r n g r e s .l l s ( r c . r rr o r c c l u i r
B i o l u c l sA l f '722 11

CNDI]K8.9 Regcnts

INH- Cornethanolraisingfood prices (lorn cthanolproductiondriving up food prices l n dt h e l - l n irr o r n r c ' trrlt T h t L i c b e r m a n a n d L o r i s 0 8 l B c n a n dN i c L -S e n i o rP o l i c rA n a l ) s t si n l J n c r g a l l c r i t a g cF o u n d a t i o"r l' ri n 1 el r ) R e p c l lt h eI i t h a n oM l a D d a t dN l a ) 1 5 1 h . r qc s c a r c[h. - n e r g y a n d E n r i r o n n*rncrnl 9t 2 5 . c f i t t ] h n p : u s u . h e r i t a i . : c . oR A r c t u r n t o a f r c c n a r k e l f o r e t h a n o l' r r o u l db e a $ c l c o m cr t e o .C o n g r c s s h o u l d( l i r n i n a t ct h c e t h a n o l nrandate. ethanol-relared ta\ breaks.and protcctionisttariffs that kecp out rlotenliall\ ch€aDcrforcign havelongcnjored preferenlial suDDlies. A Cfo$ing N,landale Rcn$r'ablefuels.anclparticularlycorn-ethanol. trcatnrent fionr the fedcralsolernmcnl. I his includesa tax credituonh S0.5I per gallon.ln addition.tariil! discourageimportsofethanol.includingpotentialllclrcaps15ug31.rr.basedethanolfrotr Brazil.Yct thc conc!-rned abouthigh gasprices.global*arnting. and cthanolindustr--\ still rrilnledmore.andCongress. 'l don]csticc'nclg)production.enacteda nrandatc. he 200: enerqybill containedthc jlrsl-cvcrrequirenent l h a tf c n e \ \ a b l ieu e l sb c n r i ' , c di l t o t h eg a s o l i n seu p p l \ ' I. h s 1 0 0 7e n e r g lb i l l i n c r e a s cl dh r ' r t l a n d a t c \ u b s l r n t i a l l \ I. h ! ' t . . S i s n o r rc o m m i l t t ' ido u s i n ,9r b i l l i o ng a l l o n si n 1 0 0 8 .r i s i n !t o l 6 b i l l i o nb t l 0 l l . priccsrisingto rccLrrdlgrt'ls.consunrers irrcn01sccing1h!-prr)nriscd I thrnol and lrucl Costs\\ ith pLrnrp dccrcrt l ) . n . l j l \ l i ( ) n r i h . r n oul s e [ ) r o p o n e not si t h c n r a n d . r ti n c s i s t h a t$ i t h o u te r h a n o lp. r r i c cr'r o L r l b h i g h e rb. u t t h i : i s n , r tl i k c l r . I h e l o g i s t i c aalr ( l r c g u l a l ( r nc o s t s o fm i \ i n g e l l r a n Li rnl { o l h c l u e l: u p 1 - . r1a1i s t t l r cc o s to l d r i r i n gh r r o n dt h e ' l e r eilm p o s c db 1 p h i n 3 u s o l i n u e s a g eL. l n l i k eg a s t r l i n ec .l h a n ocl a n n o bt e : n dr n u s b : h i p p c dr i a p i p c l i n c a l ! ' t r a n s p o n crdi a r a i l .b a r g eo. r 1 r u c kL. l h a n o ul s c : t l s ccto n r p l i c a l e s rr ilh sonrcEnr ironrtentaiProlectionAgerrcrregulalions1brgasolinc.especiallrthose'designed c()rnpliancc l ( ) l i e h l s u n r n r c5rn r o g\.' 1 o sst i g n i f i c a n t lal -st h e . \ m c ' r ' i c iA r nu t o n r o b i lAc s s o c i a t i oann do t h e r sh a \ c p o i D t c d o u ] .! ' l h a n oLl r e l c r r r e 'lri sr c 'el c o n o n r y . I I ]- t h a n oal n dI o r . r dC o s t sl ) i Tc r t i n q c o r n f r o n t f o o d t o f u c l u s eh t s r a i s t d f o o d D r i c c sA . l a l i t t l c o \ e r 5 2 p e r b u s h e \l \ h c n l h c 2 0 0 5c n e r q \ l a $ $ a s s i u n e d t. h c p r i c e o f c ( , r n h a ss u r g e da b o r c 5 5 D c r b u s h c l D . r i m a r i l \ b e c a u s rc e u r r t e r o f t h c c r o Di s n o $ u s e d1 r )r , r o d u c c c r e r g \ . A h o s l o f c o r n - r e l a l c df o o d s s. u c ha s c o r n - f c dn r e i r a t n d d a i r \ . h a r e l e c n s h a r DD r i c ci n c r c a s c s . F i r r m c r s r. e a l i z i n qt h c b e n c f i l st o b c d e r i \ e d f r . r m D r o d u c i p !r:ol r n . . r r cs $ i l c h i n €f r o m s o rb c a n sa n d r rh e l t . r c d u c i n gt h c s u D n l \a n d c o n t r i h u t i n gt o t h r n r i c c r i s c .l o r c o f n i i r f l l ] e r \t.h cr n i L n d ! th. r ' c r , c c c d ctdh e i rr ri l d e s d t rcam:b . u t f o r c o n s u n r e rist -h ^ r :b ( c na n c r p e n s i r eh i t h i g h c rc o s l st ( ,d r i \ c l o t h c \ u p c r m a f k eatn dh i q h c rp r i c . ' so n c cl o L r ' r ct h e r c . ^ f ( i c n l : l u d ) t i o n rP u r d L rt cl r i r t ' r s i t r p u l : t h . a d d c dl i , o d ! o s l l i o r n l h . ' r e n c r r a i ' l e n r a n d a l c a t S l 5 h i l i i t r n i nalb( )t r( u ) lt S l S 0 p e r h o L r s e h o l hd c. [i ]m l l a c lt h u sI " ! i r rl i ) i ) 8 i s e \ c n h i q l r e rl' .h e c l l i c l s o i , \ n r c l i c a 'cst h . r n <prol l i c l .a s\ \ c l l a ss i n r i l alrb r r d - f c r r - t upeoll i c i c si t I r r o p c .a r el ' . ' l tg l o b r l h . S c r c l a lL n i t e d\ a l i o n \ a n l la n t i - h u n g corr g a n i z a t i o h na s v eu e i r h e di n h e a r i l l i r r l i n s rc u l l t ' n 1p o l i c i c : .\ \ o r l d l l a n k I ' r c s i d c nI tL o b c rl to c l l i c k h a sa c k n o r r l e d g el hda l ' b i o l u r l si s n o d o L r l .at si!nillca'rtcontfibulor"lo high lbod crrsts.adclingthar"ir is e^learllthc caselhat prollranrsin l-uropcand lirt L niredSlrle\ thal hare increased biolirelproductionhar c'conlributcd1othc adde'ddenrrnd1brtirrl."Ii I T h e r c h a sb c c nf r ) o d - r c l a t crdi o t i n gi n s e \ e r a ld e \ e l o n i n gn a t i o n s . l . lAl l t h o u e ha n u m b e ro f f a c t o r s h i l \ e l c d l ( ) t h i \ . h i o f u e l sn r a p d a t easr e u n d e n i a b l !a c o n l r i b u t o ra n d e \ a c e r b a t e8 n \ o t h c r p r e s s u r eos n lirod prices.llept'llins the cthancri rrrruiclha\r a!r irllrllcdiiile nrandate elJict r)n &)odprices.z\ studl c o n d L r c t eh dr t h c l n t c n r a t i o n Iaol o d P o l i c l R c s c a r clhn s t i t r r tleo u n dt h a tp l a c i n ga n r o . a t o r i u n o rn b i o f u e l si r t l { ) ( 1 8t r o u l dd c c l c a s ceo r np r i c c sb 1 l 0 p c r c c niri n d! \ h c a tp r i c e sl 0 p e r c c nbl y 1 0 0 9 , l 0 l t ) . [ 5 ]l - h ef a s t e r ( ' ( ) n s r . sa s c t s t. h eq u i c k e cr o n s u n t e r rsi l l s c ca d l o p i n l i r o dp r i c e s .

B i o l u e lA stl 181222

('NDl lt8-9 ILegenls

INH- Cornethanolraisingfood prices Corn ethanolis the causcof thc high food pricesthat are creatingglobalinstabilitv and lhc Conlin!. Adanrs 08 iMikc. stall'*rirer [or naluralneu s.com. -Thc I]iofuclsScam.FooclShortages ('ollapse \ \ . n a t u r a l n es $ . c o m l o-l1 0 L 9 h t ml ] o f t h e H u n t a nP o p u l a t i o n ' A p r 2i l 3 . 2 0 0 8 h t l p : \ ! 1 1 I t r v a so n e o f l h e d u m b e s t" g r e c n " i d e a se Y e rD r o D o s e dC: o n v e r tm i l l i o n so f a c r c so f c r o D l a n di n t o fields for ero$ ing cthanol from corn. lhen burn fossilfuels to harvcstthe ethanol.e\Dcndine rnort rncrpv to exiract the fucl than vou get from the fucl itselfl Meanwhilc.sil back and proclaim You'\ e g danecrous a c h i e \ e da m o n u m e n t ael r e e ny i c t o r \ ' ( P r e s i d e nBt u s h .a n v o n e ?a) l l n h i l c u n l e a s h i n a sDikcin global food Dricesthat's causinea rifrDleeffcct of food shorlapesand rationine around thc schcmcsand ntcrrc rrorld. I think politiciansneedto spendlesstime braggingabouttlreirlrtcstgreen\\ashing tinrc :tudl ing Thc Lau of Llnintended Consequenccs. Becauscu.hilegrou'inrlfuel on croplandinitiallt conclu:'io| \ound\ like a greatidea.an) honestassessnrent oJ'thctotal impactlcadsI'ou tir thc inescapable (see biofuels thlr biofuclsare largelya govemnrcnt-sponsored bclo$). Droduce scanr.With a feu c\ceptirlns n o n c t i n c r e a s ei n c n c r q \ o u t D u t a . n d t h e Yc a u s ef o o d s h o r t a g c !sr h i l e c r c a l i n gs t r o n ge c o n o m i c i n c e n l i r e sf o r i h e d e s t r u c t i o no f t h e v e r t r a i n f o r e r t sn e d c s o c r a t e hn c e dl o s t a b i l i z ct h e c l i m a t c lA n d n r ) r \\ r e ' r e i u s t s t a r l i n ql o s e et h e e a r l \ s i g n so f t h c c c o n o m i ca n d s o c i a li n s a n i l \ t h a { h a s b c e n r n l c a s h e db \ t h i s f o o l i s hD u r s u i to f b i o f u e l sa r o u n dt h e $ o r l d : F o o dr a l i o n i n si n S a n r 'C s l u b s l o r c .i n t l : , . ' i \.. rapidh-risingpriceson bread.ricc and conr.and pricc spikcsai crticlcriasund lc5laur'.urls thardcpcnd ( ) nt h ( \ ( s r a p l qi n g r c d i c n t T r .h c n r i c co f r i c e h a st r i D l c d{ l o b a l l \ . u n l e a r h i n gr i o t s i n H a i t i a n d l | l r n g l a d c s ha.n d t h e U n i t e dN a t i o n sh a si s s u e dr r x r n i n g st h a t m i l l i o n so f n e o p l ca r o u n dt h c $ o r l d n o \ r facc ltar\ation bccauscthc\ can't afford to bu\ f(rod.Anrericansitrc c\en slarlins10hoardlixrd oncc l r g a i na. f i c rr c a r so f a v o i d i n gb a s i cp r c p a r c d n ensrs! ' a \ L l r e( sO. n cb e n c l l tl o a l l t h i s .h o r i e r c r .i s l h i L lta l n t c r ' rrc licluall) g!'[ing paid decentpriceslirr thcir cropsr]rr\\.rlir'r )cars ol of.ralns on thc \crlle ()l' birnkruptc)...) o1 \4ost biofuel!'llbns arc a shamNot all ()l lhcscpricc spikcsareduc to thc c,rrnrcrsion . r r ) n l r n J st o b i o f u e fl i c l d s .b L rnt r r r c h o l i t i s . A s a r c s u l t i t s s u d d c n l lb c c n ni rn go l .r i o u sl o n e a r l tc r c n o i t c t h l t tt h s l L r r s L r(i}tf h i o f u e l sl s. c u f f e n l l ls t r u c t u r c di s. a l r a n d g r e c n r r a s h i n I Lgr a r .l l L l ( ) e 5 np 'rlo d U c r ) ) o f c l i r c lt h a ni t c o n s u n r easn. di t d r i r c su p l b o dp r i c e :t ( )b o o l l \ o \ r , t h c r c r r c b i o l i r c l sn r ( x r r a m st h : t t r e a l l \ d ( l \ r u r k . T h e g r o \ r i n ga n d h a r \ e s t i n eo f s u g a r c r n e i n B r a z i l .f o r e \ a n o l ( . 0 r o v i d e sa n 8 - t o - l r c t u r n o t l r n c r g \ i n \ c s t m e n l .B u l c \ c n t h a tp u r s u i il s t a r n i s h Lt' rdl c l a i n r so f u n s a l i \ \ ' o r kr n \ i r o n n e n t sa n dn r a . : i r r ' c ' r ri | r r n r n c n l pa ol l l u l i o n( t h cs u g a cr a n cl l c l d sa r eb u r c d b c l i f c h c i n gh a r \ e s t e da.p r o c e stsh a lr e l e a \ e i r n a . , s i rier n r o u n t s ,C t i o l i r l s t e c h n o l o gal r a i l a b l c l i O l i n t ot h ee n r i r o n m c n t )l l. r e o n l \ l r u l \ p r o m i s i n b tLr.jirris basetlort r:ticroaltar'FccdCO2 lo a lat of alrire.and\ou canproducehiolilclscheapl)and r . r p o 0 : i b l r .\ \ i l h o L rdl c s l r o \ i n !t h ee n ! i f o n n r ! ' l 'Bl tu. t t h e s ep r o g r a masr ! ' o n l )i n c \ p c r i n r e n l aplh a s e s '\ r,llod\ iq producinrbioiuels on a largescalcli onr algaefirnns(not ) ct. ant\\ a) ). 4!.d_!Lql_!S3lls_l!!-glga! { n r c r i c n b r e a d b a \ k r l :T h e c o r n a n d $ h c a t f i e l d s .I t i s h e r et h a t f o o d i s n r ) r }b e i n g d i s r r l a c ebd\ c r o o t gro\\n for lliofucl Droccssing. So rrhere a farmer usadto gro$ corn as a food !ource. hc's norl grotiing i t t o r c l l t o a b i o f u e lp r o c e s s i nfga c i l i t \ ' $ h i c ht u r n \ a h cc o r n i n t o e t h a n o l O . b \ i o u s l \ . t h e l a \ r so f c c o n o m i c cs o m ei n t o D l a \ h e r e .m e a n i r gt h a l e \ e r \ h u s h e o l f c o r r u s e df o r b i o f u e l sD r o d u c t i o nm e i n s o n c l e s sb u s h e lo f c o r n a \ a i l a b l ef o r f o o d .F a c t o ri n t h c l a $ s o f s u D p l \a n d d e m a n d .a n d v o u c a n s c c that thc more croDs\r'c usc for biofuels.the higher the Driccs\rill rise for food,

B i o f u c l sA l l 19',22)

c N D rl k 8 - 9 Rcgcr'rts

INH- Corn ethanolnot energyefficient Corn basedcthanol is not energ) efficient lobblists.)lhat'sjust ... cornponc!" [:d Morrissel .]unc23. 2008"Obamaopposes ists-thal'sj ust-cornponci http:rihotair.ccuni archircs/2008/06i 23/obama-opposcs-lobbl .lohn\lcCain opposcscthanolsubsidies. cspccialllcorn-bascdethanol.and lbr goodreason:il s nol tcfribi) c l l i c t i v c . I 1o n l ) c a s i l r . l t h a st o b e t r u c k e de v e r r u e h e r ei n s t e a do f d c l i r c r e dt h r o u s h n i D e l i n e s\ r. h i c h m e a n si t t a k c s cl cn more energYto deliler it to market for lessDotcntialenergv releaselater. Not onlv that. but c t h a n o ls u b s i d i e hs a \ e d i v e r t e dc o r n f r o m f o o d s u p D l i c sf .o r c i n ph i g h e rp r i c e s$ o r l d \ r ' i d ea n d c a u s i n g r n o r ei n s t a n c e0 f s l a r ra t i 0 n .

('orn cthanolrcquircscarboncmissionsin production,rcsultingin a net incrcaseof C02. Earth lsland Journal Summer Vol.:1.lss.2:pg.55..:1 1008(Roblnne Bold. l til:t-l\(l I ItL lt.rItjRE?". p g s .h t t p : p r o q u e sut r n i . c o nprq d $ c b ' l d i dl ' 1 9 - 1 6 5 6 0 7 1 & sli&df-n l 3 0 9 & \ / N a n r cl ' Q I ) ) l & c l i . n l l d 1 5 6 6 & R Q= . \ t t d .[ ] r o r r ns a r s .c r c n i f c o r n c u l t i r a t i o ni s d r a n r a t i c a l l ri n c r c a s e di t. r r i l l b c i n s u l f i c i e ntto m a k c a m c a n i n g f udl c n t i n o u r f o s s i lf u e l c o n s u m D t i o nA.c c o r d i n gt o a ? 0 0 6a n a l \ s i so [ e n c r q v c o n s u m D t i o bn \ t h t I n i r e r s i t r o f M i n n e s o t ai .f a l l o f t h c c o r n g r o r rn t h a t r t a r l e r t t u r n c d i n t o e t h a n o l o . nlt l2 \\ere s r o r i ni n t h c c o L r n l D o e r c e n to f A m e r i c a ' sg a s o l i n cd e m a n dr i o u l d b e o f f s c t ,l l a l l o Jl h c s o l b c a n g pfoc.ised into fuel. onll si\ percentofthe dicscl demandsould I't nr.'t f!.lllgjlIg_9]!p_l!!Ilj!!_1l3! D l o r r i n gu n r r er r l a n d st o m a k e r o o m f o r b i o f u r l n r o d u c t i o n* i l l a c l u a l l r i n c r c a s ec a r b o nd i o r i d e c n r i s s i o n sM. a n r p e o p l ea s s u n rteh a tb c c a u scco r nc l h a n obl u r n sc l c a n ctrh a n- { a s o l i n ci l. i s a g r c c nl ' u c l l. } u t i l F e b r u a r \ 2 0 0 7s t u d \ i n S c i e n c e s h o $ e dt h a t c o r r re l h a n o lc o u l d r c s u l ti n n e a r l \ t \ l i c c t h c g r c c n h ( r u s e g i | sc m i s s i o n as s t h e g a s o l i n ei t n o u l d r e p l a c eA . s g r a s \ l a n d sa n d f o r e s l sa r e c o n \ c r t c dt o a [ r i c u l t u r a l l a n d s .( . ( ) 2 t h a t h a d b e e nl o c k c di n l h c s o i lf o r m i l l r n n i ai s r c l e a s e di n t o t h e a t n o s p h e r eT. h e c u r c . i t l u r n s o u t . n r a \ b e $ o r s et h a n d i c d i s e a s c .

( orn cthanolrequiresmorc fossilcncrg'\to produccthan it savcsto use

' l , o g i c a l s c i c n c e . c r l m 2 0 { } 7 ( ' o l n I . t h a n o l I: h c ( i r c r t l } r r o n d t r g g L . l r l t 1 l ;r i r i r r . l o L i c a l : c i c n c r . c o t cnct h n o l o gbl a d L t h a n o l . h r r n l l ] . r ; r c a l l ar | r t h i n g\ r i t h a n l r R O t l g r e a l etrl l a ni i . - [ o o . l . \ I d a r ] ) l h i n gl ! ' s st l r i u trr n ci . r e r y b a t la sl o u r r c -l l r r s i n !e n e r g )i n t h c p r o c e s s\.' l a n ) e t h a n ocl r i l i c \\ \ i l l p o i n tt o a s t u d r D c r f o r n r c db r l l e r k c l e t' s a i l l ' a l . / e ka r d C o r n e l l ' Is) a ri d I ' i n t e n t c*ll t i c l t s a r s c o r n e t l r a n \ r h r t \ o u c a n g c t o u t o f i t . ' r D o i n g s o n t e ' q u i c k n r t l h t h a l n r c a n s i t ' siFs.IRl O .lL 9 I 0 . 7 7 .Y e t t h c t i S I ) A r e o o r t s1 2 . 3 1s a \ c t h a n o li s a n e t e n e r g \ s a i n . \ \ h r t h ed i s c r e p a n c ) ' . ' \ \ et ol i l n a k ea l o n g s t o r r s h o r t t h c U S D A i s d o i n qs o m ef a n c \ s c c o u n t i n g\ r i t h b \ - D r o d u c t s1. h c $ i d c l l r e l ' c r c n c ecdh e m i c a l ! ' n s i n e cR f o b c nR a p i e sr a y s ": T h e o n l \ n a \ t h e e n c r g \ b a l a n c eg e t si n t o p o s i t i v et e r r i t o r \ i s t h a t b \ p r o d u c tc r c d i t . " T h i s b \ - o r o d u c tc r c d i t i s D l a n tm a t t e rt h a t i s p r o c c s s eidn t o m a k e s h i f at n i m a lf c c d T h e c a l o r i e sa r c c o u n t e da s f u e l e n e r g Ya n d a d d e do n t o p o f t h e e t h a n o lt h a t i s D r o d u c e dW . ithoutthis animal feed corn basedethanol is a nct lossofenerq\. If vou add this animal fecd in You get into the D o s i t ic\ b u t t h e a m o u n to f g a i n i s n o t v e r v s i s n i f i c a n tl.f Y o ua r e r e o u i r e dt o t r a n s D o r t h e c o r n l o n e distanccsfor processingthen e\en this animal feed can't Dushethanol back into the DositiYe.Corn is iust too bulk\ and lolr' enerel-to transport efficientl\'.A semitruck simpl; can'thaulenoughcorn to fLrel itsclfover an1 appreciablc distance.There are othcr nroblems*ith the USDA studv, First of all the LISDA rcport has not beenpublishedin Deer-reyie*ediournals. SecondlyRoben Rapierhaslound sonrc iirnc\ accounlingtechniques thathe refersto as a "sophisticated sleightofhand". Still. the fact is that the Deerrcvic$cd literature savsethanol is not a net energvgain. ScientificDapersthat have not undcrqoneDccr review generallydo not have a \erv good track record when it comesto accurac\. And any singlcrcportthal is uritten b1,aUSDA emploleedoesnot necessarillrepresent the opinionsofeveryone at lhe tjSDA. I-r'enif1'ou usethe rnostoptimisticand controvcrsial ofthe cthanolrcports)'ou onll havean F-l{Otl of 0.9 bcforethe b\'-Droduct crcdits

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INH- Corn ethanolnot energyefficient Corn cthanolcontributesmorc to global* arming than gasolinc J A ( ' K K F I . L L Y N a . rS l . 2 0 0 8 P o l i r i c jsi r e ' l j nr-i!s i n - lrc x x ip r i c e s ' h t t p ;* r . u . p h i l l l b u r b s . c o nprb - d r n ' n e r rirl l 0 5 0 8 1 0 0 EI --5 1 0 8 9h7t.m l ll lakes19 pcfcentmorc fossilcncrg) to producccorn ethanolthanthe cthanols ill providc.accordingto a 1 0 0 5s t u d \c o n d u c t epdr i n c i p a l lbl 1 C o r n e l L l i n i v e r s i ter c o l o g i sDt a v i dP i n r c n t cAl .n d b e c a u soc f i t s rr:ndcncl1oabsorb$a{er.elhanolcannolbe transponed[r1 nretalpipr'linc.as is donc'\! i1hn]oslgasolincand tjicrel l'ucl.Ethanol increatcs(\t o of thc mosl dangcrousair pollutallls r olatile oreanic comDouDd\ ( V O C s )a n d n i t r o s e no r i d e s( N O \ ) b \ ' . l t o 7 D e r c e not v c r g a s o l i n La. c c o r d i n gt o t h e E n \ i r o n m e n t a l Prolection Agencr'.Tosether.VC)C and NOx causethousandsof nremature deathseach lear. the []l'A sirid.I'nr skepticalaboutmanmadeglobalrvarminq.But il'it's a problem.ethanol production c\acerbatcsil. e a s\ r i l h 2 9 6 t i m e sl h e $ a r m i n g p o t e n t i a l o f c a r b o nd i o r i d t ' .A s t u d \ l e d b \ N o b c l \ O \ i s a p r c c n h o u sg l a u r e a t eP : r l r l C r u t z o ne s t i m a t eN s O \ e m i s s i o nfsr o m c o r n D r ( , d u c t i o cna u s eu r rl ( , 5 0 n c r c c n tm o r ( \ r a r l n i n gt h N nt h e s u b s t i l u t i o po f e t h a n ( , f1o r g a s o l i n ea \ o i d s .

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INH- Cornethanolcan'tsolveoil dependence - fear of agricultural industn failinglvill detcr Corn cthanolcan't solvedependcncc production 'Ihc ()nslitution. Atlanta.fournal-Constitution, 2006(RlcftARD It SAMS: \\'rilcr tbrrlrcJoumal-C ' ' L ) o n '\l\ o r s e n : t h o n opl l a nu o u l d s t r a i n\ \ a t e r .c r o p s "J u l l 1 8 . 2 0 0 6l.e r i s ) e n c r g lc r i s i s L l f t c u a n t t o r e d u c eo u r f o r e i q n - o idl c p c n d e n c \n' .e n e e dl o m o r e b e r o n dl e m o o r a r r r r o l i t i c alli r c s a n d focuson \rorkable long-tcrm solutions.Congressis aboulto makea choice.Let'shopeit recognizcsthat thc tlars o1-chcap oil are bchindus bLrtdoesn'tmake1b!'samenristakcin pursuingethanolthat it rnade$ith sr nlirclsin (hc 1970s.Lthanol\\ill proride little relict lionr the realencrg)prttblemssc faceand rlay ldd to an Increasing \\ aterrcsourceproblenrlbr f-arrtrers. Wr must a\ oid a DolentialtraD of Dretendingthat a m a s s i \ es h i f t t o c o r n - b a s c d e l h a n o lp r o d u c l i o nc o u l db e a c h i c \ e dw i l h o u t a n \ a d v c r s ee n \ i r o n m c n t a l a n d c c o n o m i cc o n s e q u e n c eAr .c a s ei n p o i n t :l t t a k e s . l - 5g a l l o n so f \ , | a t c rt o p r o d u c eI g a l l o no f c t h a n o l . I n t h e l \ I i d n c s tC o r n B e l t .t h a t r r a t c r n i l l c o m em a i n h f r o m t h e s a m eu n d c r g r o u n da e u i f c r su s e df o r c l o r ) i r r i q a t i o n .B u l 4 g ! ! s l a l e sh a l e n o s t r a t c g i cD l a nf o r a d d r e s s i n tuh i s p o l e n t i adl e m a n df o r \ \ a l r r . I l t c r c s u l ti : n c ' r rc t h a n opl l r n t sa r cf o p p i n ! q p t h r o u g h o ut ht c M i d \ \ c \ l a n dc l s c l J r e r rcr i t h o u tr r a l c r - s u p n l r i s s r t : b e i n ! a d d l e s s cpdr o p c f l \ ,H \ d r o l o e i s l s$ a r n t h a t i r r i q a t e dc r o p sc o u l dl a i l i f g r o u n d \ r a { c r l r \ e l s f i t l l d u r i n t d r o u g h l .E t h a n o ln l a n l sn e a r f a r m su i l l r e o u i r co t h e rs o ur c e so f u a t c r o r h c f a c c r l* i t h a \ r r i ( , u s\ r { l ( r f i g h t \ i i t h n e i g h b o r i n !f a r n r i n gi n t c r c s t s .

('orn clhanolcan'l sollc oil depcndence "( orn-bascd Stcphanie Lcland.lulr l(xh.2006COII-.\I{cscurch:\ssociilre l:rhanol:Ollclrrr,: (ilobalization's SonrcIlclicl'liorr \lcrcilcssQueslto R,,'piace I'ossilIiuel" 12006,t0 htlp: 'u u rr .eoha.org 71cont-\ersLl f-basccl-su s-sLlsa bstitute-lirels,' T l t e [ ] . S .c l ) r n m a r k c t i s a l r e a d r f e e l i n gt h r c f f e c t so f a n e r n a n s i o ni n c t h a n o ln r o d u c t i o ni.t st h e n c \ \l \ (rcllad irrlu\lrial clc.ntand for this catcgon ol c,rrnrl.ile! Lrf lbout )J pt'r'ccnt ol'thjs )c.ir's corn harrrst. rricirldiIg t(rlhe Iinited StatcsDcpaflnrcnr ot Agriculrurc(LlSt)A).'l'hedcparlmcnt al\o g!!!L!g!I!L!!.9 ( t u i t n { i t \o f c o r n u s e df o r e t h a n o ln r a n u f a c l u r i n $e i l l d { ) u b l c$ i t h i n t h e n e \ t l 0 \ e a r s .u s i n ga b o u l i r t t u a r ( c r o f ( o t l l t . 5 . c o r n o u t n u t . I o : a t i s l \ t h c r r . r u n t i r rnl lc c df o r c o r n .[ . ] . Si.' a f n t e rcsa ni n c r c i i s e p t r r d u c t i chr n r p l a n t i n um o r ea c r e sa j t dc | g i n c c l i n qb c t t c rc o r ng c n c t i c :I.l o \ \ c \ c r .a st h e [ ] S D A h a ss l a l c d . i t ) c t e n s i ntPo r n { ) u t D u nt a \ n o t b e a n a t t r a c t i \ co l ) t i o nb e c a u s teh r c q u i D m c n ut s c dt o c u l t i v a t ec o r n l l l t t s to t ) c r a t eo n f o s s i fl u c l . M o r c n r o d u c t i o nn o r r n a l l \m c i r n :b' u r n i n gn l o r c o i l . $ h i c h c o t r a d i c t \ t h e m a i n r c a s o n sf o r D r o d u c i n ge t h a n ( riln t h c f i r s t D l a c c f. a r r r r c rm s a r h a \ ek ) d i s p l a c se o l b e a nl i e l d st i r p l a r l n t o r t ' . t c r eosf r e l l o r rg o l d . a sa N e r r Y o r k l i n t e sa n i c l cc a l l e di t . b e c a u sseo l b e i i n gs r o r ru n d c rt h c : : t t r ec o r t . l i t i c ran:sc o t n .I l o \ \ c \c r . c h a n g i n gc r o D r o t a t i o n( o f a \ o r c ( r r nm a t d a m a g cs o i lq u a l i t \ . i m p a i r i n gc o r n D r o d u c t i o ni n t h c c n d . S i n c cv a s t l \ e r D a n d i n gt h e [ J . S c. o r n c r o Dc o u l dh a \ . ' s u c h n o t a f i \ e c o n s e q u c n c clsl ..S . f a r m c r s$ i l l D r o b a b l \n o t b c a b l el o i n c r e a s cl h c a c r c a g cd e \ o t c dt o c o r n i n o r d e r t o ! u p p l \ s u f f i c i c no t u t D u tt o o f f s e tt h e i n c r c a s c d c m a n d .\ \ ' a r r c nR . S r a l c ro l - C a r { i l l a. n ' r u l t i n a l i o n1a. .l S a . gricultura g li a n t e , x p r e s s ecdo n c c r na b o u tc o m s u p p l i c isn a N e r r Y o r L l i m e si n t e r r i e ' r r ' ' [ ] n l e s su e h a v sa h u g ci n c r e a sien p r o d u c t i r i t yu' c. \ \ i l l h a l c a h u g ep l o b l c mu i t h f o o dp r o d u c t i o .n. . a n d lhc rrorltl * ill hare 1omakcchoices."Conl is normalh sold to food industries or cxponcdto lirreign counlrics.bu1\ ilh ethanolnanufacturers bu1ing so nruchofthe crop.Li.S.corn sellcrstnal hare 1()choose alrr(rng their [.ttrersanddiiert salesfiom tradiljonalcornnrodit]purchasers 11)\\ard thoseengagcdin fuel p r( ) d i l c l l o n .

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Brazil- Tariffimpedingrelations Reducingthc ethanoltariff is kev to resoh'ingtrade differenccsand expanding[iSBraziliancooperation. - chairntanoffte SenatcForcignRelalionsCon]n]illee.and Ilraziliananbassadorto lhc t l . S . 5 - i 5 - 0 6 t R i c h a ra . n r e r i caan dl l r a T i Il n l e r s c co tn t t h a n o l. d n dR o b e r t o A htlp:rruu.rencrvablccncrg;uorld.com''rearne\\s'rcinsiderstory?id'14896) O u r t $ o c o u n t r i c sn e e dt o a c c e l e r a tteh e i r c o o D e r a t i o nI ,h e e c o n o m iac n dp o l i t i c ael n r i r o n n r e ni rttt h c for cachthat t\e canmer{ betlerif $c do so togclhcr. ArDericasis changingrapidll. crcatingneu challenges c f t h e s i z eo f i t s € c o n o m \ .p o D u l a t i o nl ,a n d m a s s . B r a z i l h a ss D e c i ai ln f l u e n c ci n t h e r e g i o nb e c a u s o n a t u r a l r c s o u r c e as n d s i g n i f i c a net c o n o m i cD. o l i t i c aal n d c u l t u r a lt i e su i t h n e i g h b o r sB. r a z i la n dt h e tlniled Stalesshouldcombinethcir strcngthsto contributeto the region'secononic,socialand political d e v e l o p m e nSt .i m i l a r l \ e ' . f f o r t sa t l o w e r i n gt r a d e b a r r i e r si n t h e A n l e r i c a ss. o i m D o r t a n li n s t i m u l a t i n g gro\rth. arc no$ on hold. in Dart becausethe Unit€d States.Brazil and Mercosur(tradins/onc bel\\ecr Ilrazil. Algenrina.tlruguay.and Paragual') havc differencesorcr imoortant issucs.Rcsohing these d i f f c r c n c c \r r o u l d b c a b o u nl r , h o l h ( o u n t r i c r . \ c b o t h [ a c cc h a l l e n e et\o o u r c n e r g \ \ e c u r i t \ l l , , n ' l r ] . s h a r p l \r i s i n r $ o r l d r l i d ed e m a n df b r e n c r g r H . i g h e r w o r l d e n e r g t D r i c c sg. r c a ( e rv u l n c r a b i l i ( r ' t oc r t r g r . u t a n l i dt h i \ t hsa t n i l l a f f e c ta l l n a t i o n s B ! h o c k sa n d i n c r e a s c dD o t c r t i a fl o r c o n f l i c ta r e c o n s e q u e n c e n e \ i e n e r g \ f h r e a t .\ r e a l s oh a r e a n o D D o r t u p i t t\ o f a s h i ( , na $ i n - $ i n r e s D o n steh a t c o u l d b c n e f i tb o t h our countrics.l'hekc\ is ethrnol, uhich Brazii long ago sarras an importantclcmentof its cncrgl stralcgr s u g l r c a n e - b a s e! 'dl h a n o l a n dn o * p r o r . i d c lsl l p e r c c nol f t h c c o u n l r ls a L r l o n r o t i l!ier c l .t h a n k st o a b o o n r i n g i n d L r s t rA\ .s a r e s u l tB . r a z i l .* l r i c h r e a r sa g oh a dt i r i n r p o rat l a r g cs h a r eo 1 - t h pc c l r o l e u nnre e d c dl i ) f d o I r e s l i c o n s u n r p t i orne.c c n l l lr e a c h c cdo n r l ) l e tscr . l 1 ' - s u f l i c i einncori l . I r o ri t so r i n e i r c r g ys c c u n l \ .t h c t . o i l c dS l a l c s- b ) l ' a rt h c $ o r l c 1 'l sa r g e sol i l i n r p o n e-r- r i n r i l a r l ln e e d sl o h r u J k, ) r l ' \n c a r - m L , n o p ,r,,ln\ l l l c l t r n : 1 r o ns c u l o b r r l u r n i n gt o e t h a n ollt r ra r n u c hl a r g c rs h acr o l ' i t sa u t ol l c ' l s u p p l .l A l l h o u g hl h e l r n i t c d S t a t c su- s i n sc o r n .p r o d u c cns c a r l la sn r u c he t h a n oal : B r a z i l a n di s e r p a n d i n g i l s a n n u apl r o d u c t i obn) L i p c f c . n l .l h e l i r u rb i l l i o ng a l l i r n ps r o d u c c d i s s t i l la t i n l l i a c l i o no l t h e l . l 0 b i l l i o ng a l l o n so l g a s o l i n e c n dl i 5 - p c ' r c t 'cnl 1 r o n 5 u m e d . t , s i nI :g- 8 5l i r c l .a b l e n do l ' 1 5 1 c r c e ngt a s o l i n a h a n o la. n de l s i l r a r a i l a b l e l l e r i b l e - f l e1 l c ' c h n o l o sgo\ t h a tc a r sc a nb u r n[ : - 8 5 .r h e[ ] n i l c dS l a l e sc o L r l d r a n r a t i c a lllol u t ' r i t s o i l d c p e n d c n cC c .a i n i n gc o n s u n t earc c e p l a n c* ci l l : p u r t h c c r p a n s i o o n l c l h a n Lpr lr o d u c t i onnn d i n l ' t l ' t t r c l L r r . . l h r i l n r e a n s\ p r c a d i ntgh ea r a i l a b i l i t or l L - E 5 .n o r i l l r g e l r l i n r i t c .tlo t h c N l i d r r c s lt o. n r a r l , e llii o r t tc o : r ' il L ' 1()Lllcndorl l..l\l coasl. ( o a s l .\ r h c r cl r a n \ p o n a t i ocno s l ss i g n i f i c a n t rl ya i s ct h c p r i c co 1 ' \ l i d s c s d t h a n o l .l h a t $ o u l d - h o \ \ c \ e r . thal no\\ . h . l t c f st h c l l . S . i n d u \ 1 r yl .t m a k e ss t r a l c g i cs e n s ct o i m p o r t e n \ i r o n n r e n t a l lf\r i c p d l \ c t h a n o lf r o t n a r e l i a b l ef r i e n d l i k e B r a z i li n o u r o $ n h e m i s D h e r e A.t r e ra l l .t h c L l n i r c dS t a t e d s o c s n '1l a r i m p o n c dc r u d c o i l . u h i c h p o l l u t e sa n do f t e nc o n r e fsi o n l u n s t a b lseu p p l i e r s . I.ugar and Abdenur

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Chavez Brazil- Tariffimpedingrelations/supporting Current tradc policieskill t,rS-LatinAmericanrelationsand ccdcinfluenceovcr to ( havcz. 1r)l.lct\er\ LA Timcs 5 8 07 ( Going sourh:Thanksto an un$ist'policr on ethanol.Prc\id.n []ush isn'tlikc'11 1 a ro n h i s t r i p t o B r a z i l " . ' p r o q u c s t . u m i . c o m / p q d r v e b ? d i d - 1 2 2 8 8 6 7 468&1F&ms t; d3 & c l i e n t l d -I 5 6 6 & R QI 3 0 9 & V N a n r cl ' ( ) l ) http: Bush is deeplv unpopular in most of Latin Amcrica -- a regionhc haslarge'lrignorcd- !qp4g!!4g4g5g man\ feel the U.S. focuson free-tradcpactsanddrug interdictionma1!313-q14g9$4.19!-p114[ instcatl o f r e l i e v i n gi t . I n t o t h a t b r e a c hh a ss t e r r p e ad u t o c r a t i cP r e s i d e nH t u g o C h a \ c z o f o i l - r i c hV e n e z t r c l a . . u r j r [ h i st r i p 1 { )l - i r t i n r l h o h a sb a c L e ds u c c e s s f ul el f t i s tl c a d e r si n B o l i r i a . [ - c u a d o ra n d N i c a r a e u aD { n r e r i c aB . u s h$ i l l t r v t o c o u n t e rC h a \ e z ' si n f l u e n c cb \ a n n e a l i n gd i r c c t l vt o t h e r e g i o n ' si m D o t ' e r i s l l c ( l $ i t h B r a z i la n d o t h c r e l h a n o lD r o d u c c r s- u n d e r c l a r sa n d s i g n i n ge n e r g vd c a l s- - s u c ha s a o a r t n e r s h i D thal arc desienedto $ean countriesfrom Venczucla'scheaDoil. Lula hasothcrpriorilies.Fearlulr)l . gricullLrral s e c n r i l g1 o oc l o s et o B u s h .h c i 5 u n d e r h e a \ ' \D r e s s u r cf r o m B r a z i l i a nf a r m c r st o D r o t e s It J - S a supporls-- especialllthe 54-cents-a-gallon tariffon Brazilian ethanol.But U.S.officialshare flath s t a t c dl h a t t h c v h a v en o i n t e n l i o no f s e e k i n ga r e d u c t i o ni n t h e e t h a n o tl a r i f f . W h a t B u s h h a so l l c r t d i n s t c a di s a \ a r i c t \ o f s m a l l a n l i - n o v e r t \D r o g r a m st h a t a r e d \ r a r f e db \ C h a r e z ' si n i t i a t i \ e si n t h c r c e i o n ,T h e " O I ' E C f o r c l h a n o l " l h a t t h e D r e s i d c nits e \ n e c t e dt o c r e a t { tro d n \ $ i l h L u l a \ r o n ' l a c l u u l l \ o 0 e l rt h c [ , ' . S m i t l l c . B r a / i l ' ss u ! l r - b i ) \ ! ' ] . a r k e tt o B r a z i l i a rcl t h a n o l .a n d a ! a r e ! u l t i l r r i l l a c c o p ) D l i sl h c t l r . r n rir>l n r o r ce n c r g le l l r c i e nat n df a r c h e a p eIrt r p l o t l u c cl l r a u[ - . S .c o r n - b a r cc. l h a n o lr.c l u e i t r t p r r ..e, \tccf\ lil|iff on thc Brazilianprrrducl1()protecldomc\lic corn qrorrcrsand clhJnolproduccr\.Ih( (ja[]ilrc ',rroLL:hlbr this policr is enorntous. sabolaga\lon!1-o\afllLr It raisc's consur!c'rpriccslbr all com prodLrrt5. l]1lcll]p1\l(lt]lo\('a\\'a\liomdirtlt.ossilluel5alrdpq!@l]U\|l h a sr r r r e rs h o * n t h ep o l i t i c acl o u r a g teo t a k eo n t h e l ' a r nlro b b y .e v e nt h o u g hU . S .a g r i c u l t L r rsaulb s i i l i c s . r n t l t u I i l l i L r n r l c | n r ihnies f r c t ' - t l a drch e t o r i cl .l e ' s n o t g o i n g1 o\ \ i n n l a D \ f r i e n d i i n B r a z i l u n l c s st h a l c h : r n g t ' r .

I S-l]raziliancthanolagreen]enl inrpro\csrelationshiprrith Latin Anrrritan and rcducts ( hrr cz's influcnce Rc.tr,r'clr Seelkcantl Yacobucci,2007 Atlirirs Iiibando. an.r11'r in I.atin Anrericrn at(-orrgressionrl tClare \ r f \ i ( r r l j f . n l D . s p c c i a l i si nt e n c I g rp o l i c r c o n g r c s s i o 0rrcrsl c a r c:hc ' r ri c c . I - t h n r r oaln do t h c rb i o l l e l : : f ( , i . r t i a l l i ! i . . \ . - l l r a z i lL ' n c r gc) o o p e r a l i o: S c p l c m b e r 1 rl -( .X ) j : ( l t S l { c p o nl i ) r ( ' ( , n g f e s \S" e ' P l c n r blc- r1 0 0 7 .' \ C ( - \ ( ) i i,0l()46'):.lc\is) 'l h e t . S . - B r a z i\l l O t l o n b i o l ! r ' l st.h c a g r e c m e nil\ t l l s oi n t e n d e dt o h a \ e 1 lp o l i l i c a le l f e c ti n t h c r r q i o n .\ l a r r r B u 5 hA d n ) i n i s l r i l l i oonl l l c i a l sa n d\ l c n r b c r : , , lC o n g r e snso l L ' t h al h t !'nc$ biofuels p a r l p e r s h i p\ i i l h I l r a z i l m a \ h c l p i r r t r r o \ r t h r [ ] . S .i m a g r i n L a t i . { n r c r i c aa n ( l d i m i n i s hl h o i | l f l u r n c c ( l f I ) r e r i d e n (t h a \ e z i n t h c r c g i o n .I h c U n i t c dS t a t c sh a si n c r c a s i n g l r\ c g a r d r dB r a z i la s a s i g n i f r c i r n t D o $ e r .c i D e c i a l l \ i n i t s r o l r a s a s t a b i l i z i n ef o r c cr n d s k i l l f u li n t e r l o c u t o irn L a t i n A m e r i c a .[ ] . S . o f f i c i a 1t5e n d t o d e s c r i b eB r a z i la s a n a m i c a b l cn a r t r l e rg o \ e r n c db \ a m o d c r a t el c f t i s tg o \ e r n n l c n ta n d ha\e resDondedDositivel\to Brazil's cfforts to reasscrtits rceional leadership,$hich has recen(l\ b c c nc h a l l c n g c db r t h e r i s eo f o i l - r i c h H u g o C h a r c z i n V e n e z u e l a( 5 . 0 )I n r e ' c c nmt o n t h sB. r a r i l l ' t a s i n c r e a s i n guhs c ds o - c a l l e "db i o f u e l ds i p l o n r a c l a" sa d i p l o n r a l iacn de c o n o n r il co o l 1 0r a i s ci l s p r o f i l r inLatinAnrericaand throughourthe uorld. I'residentC'havez,recognizing that increasinebiofuels D r o d u c l i o na n d u s a g ei n L a t i n A m e r i c ac o u l d d i m i n i s hh i s r e g i o n a il n f l u e n c eo. u i c k l va t t a c k c dt h c tsrazil-U.S.biofuelsagreement.statingthatil uould rai:e'fuodpriccsand hun thc poor. ln earl) ,ApriJ 1 0 0 1 .d e s p i t e C h a v e z 'csr i t i c i s n rosf e t h a n o l . o noci h i s a l l i e s P . r e s i d c nCt o r r c a o f E c u { d o r .s i g n e da b i o f u c l sp r o d u c t i o na g r e e m e nwt i t h B r a z i l .S o m eI \ { e m b e r o s f t h e M o r a l e sg o \ c r n m e n t i n B o l i \ i a a r c also suprrortiveof biofuelsnroduction.In mid-April2007.Chavezrvasforcedto backtrackon his initial oppositionto all biofuelsproductionin the regionrvhileatlendingSouthAmerica'sfirst regionalenergr sunrnrit.e!!Il!!!!iglb!!t!!ql Brazil and Venezuclaforleadershinin the reqion has accelcratedin thc pasl Ie$ months.In Auqusl2007.as President Lula took a six-da1'tourof Merico. CcntralAnrericaand lhc ('aribtreunt() pronote biofuclsproductionagreenrcnls, l)rc'sident ChavezvisiledArgcntina.Bolivia. LcLuJrrr a D d[ ] r u - ! u i r \ . u h e r eh c s i g n e ,aJs e r i e o s foiland-qaa , r . : r e e n r c(n5l1s]. s

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'Dig C o h e n 0 8 [ A r i c l .s e n i o r c : e l r c l rl e l l o r ri n i n t e r n a l i o ncarl r c r g ys c c u r i l la l t h c l l ( r a t i g eF o u n d a t i o n 'Conrn)e nroncr.Ilis Oil. ISigRisk" Junc.J" hnp: $ $ ri .hclilagc.org'Press ntar) cd0f)0-108b.cfin1 I l a l l r h i s\ \ c r en o l c n o u g hl.l u i . : oC h a v e z t, h c s o c i a l i s t - f a s c ri sutl c r o f V e n e z u e l ai .s s p e n d i n gb i l l i o n si n d o l l a r o i l s u b s i d i etso a s s e m b laen e m t i r c o f d e o e n d e n c i ei ns L a t i n A m e r i c a .A c c o r d i n g1 ( c) r i d e n c co'n a laptoPtakcnliom a deadguclilla lcadcrin the neighborinrr Lcuador.ChavezsuDportsthe FARC narcogd o v e r n m e nol f P r e s i d e nAl I v a r o q n c r i l l i r s\ 1 h oa r e a t t e m D t i n g t { )r , \ ' e r t h r o $ ' t h cd c m o c r a t i c a l l \ - e l c c l e l l r i l r e o f C o l o m b i a . C h a r e z . a n a l l r o f l r a n i a n p r c s i d c n t N , l a h n r o L r d A h m a d i n r - j a d . par n od ridescheapoil j!Lb!!SI! [)rn\ 1(rl)aniel Onegr and his $ifc. thc Sandini\rlrulersof Nicaragua. Chalez also!!!!!I]Jg!. a n ( l [ o r c e si n C u b a . E c u a d o r .B o l i \ i a a n d P a r a e u a \ .T h c i r i n t e n ti s t o d c n \ t h e U S i n f l u e n c ca n d t l l i c s o f t h c S o u t h e r nC o n c . ! q ! r r u l h A n r c r i c a a. n d e a s et h c } 1 a \ f o r a n I r a n i N n - H e z b o l l aphe n e t r a t i o n

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Brazil- Developingnuclearprogram Brazil is developinga nuclearprogram -fhc Pravda. 9/l /03 t t s r a z i l i aM n i n i s t e tr) i ' s c i c n c sc a i dt h a rh i sc o u n t r ]s' h o u l d" h a n d i el h c i t t o n r i tcc c h n o l o g" l a n ckl n o r rh o u t o p r o d t r caet o n r i cb o m b s . h t t p : " c n g l i s h . p r a r d aw. rour l d ' 2 0 0 3 ' 0 1 ' 0 9 " l l 7 6 l . h t n r l ) T h e n e $ B r a z i l i a nM i n i s t e ro f S c i e n c ea n d T c c h n o l o g \ ,R o b e r t oA m a r a l .s h o o kt h c S o u t hA m e r i c a n o n d c v c l o o i n ga n u c l e a r a n d i n t c r n a t i o n am l c d i aa f t e r a n n o u n c i n eh i s C o r e r n m e n t\ r a s i n t e r c s t e d Anraralsaid:"We arc againstlhc alonric orogram to "handle such tcchnologr'".In confusingdcclaralions. bomb. u'hereler it conrcsfrom: Brazil, Argenlina. tJSA or lsracl". ll olt e\ er:-L93!&bdl:llX!Ig-g!!!ql!9 l i m i t st o t h e k n o l rl c d g e "a n d D u z z l c dl o c a la n d f o r e i p na u t h o r i t i e sA. s t h ep o l c m i cd e c l a r a l i o nnsl a ) ptor.okca rcaclion tiom Brazil'sneighborsandthe internrlionalcommunin . the IrorcignNlirrislerCclso on dcvclopingan AnrtrrimconrLrhed his colleagucand saidAmaraldid not nrcirnBrazil sas inlerested saidArnorinrlo thc'press.1he alonricbonrb."We $ ill l.,eepon fightinglbr the uorld nucleardisarnring". p r o b l e nrrr i t l rA n r a r odl e c l a r a t i o ni sst h a lh c a c l u a l l )s c i du h a t h e s a y sh c d i d n ' ts a i d .O n \ ' 1 o n d . r tyh. el l l l ! c o r r c s D o n d c nt 0 t B r a s i l i aa s k c dh i n l i f h c n a s o f l h e i d e at h a t h i s c o u n t r , |s h r ) u l dc \ c n l u a l l \ h i t sl h r k n o u - h o n t r ro r o < l u c a e t o m i cb o m b s .H i s a n s n e r n a s r c r r c l c a r :" l a g r c e .I a g r c c " .l l t : a i d .

Ilrazil's derclopinga nuclcarprogram is a concernfor foreigncountrics I ' r a v d a . 9 / l / 0 - l i l h e B r a z i l i a nM i n i s t c ro f S c i e n c er . r i ctih a th i s c o u n t r _s 1h o u l d" h a n d l e ' t l tac( r r r r i tce e h n o l o ] r r i r r r dk n o $ h o $ 1 0p [ o d u c ea l o n r i cb o n b s . h t t p :' c n g l i s h . p r a r d au. rour l d ] 0 0 3 0 l 0 9 . l l 7 6 l . h t n r l ) . \ . l h c D o l c m i cd c c l a r a t i o n m s a \ D r o \ o L ca r c a c t i o nf r o m I l r a z i l ' sn e i q h b o r sa n d t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n n r u n i t \ .t h c F o r e i g nM i n i s i e rC e l s oA m o r i m c o n s u l t e dh i s c o l l e a g u ae n d s a i dA m a r i l l d i d n o l n r e : r n '\\'e I l r a z i l $ a s i n f c r c s t e do n d e v e l o p i n g u i l l k c e po n l i g h t i n gl b r t h c \ \ ( ) r l dr u c l c a r a n a t o m i cb o n r l ) , L l i \ a f n r i n gs" u. i d. \ n r o r i ntro t h ep r e s sT. h e p r o b l e nrrr i t h ; \ n r a r adl c c l a r a l i o ni \: t h a lh r 'r c t ! r , r l ls) a i d$ h a t l t e s a r r l r c d i d n ' :t a i d f ) n N i o n d a rl.h c B I S Cc o r r c s p o n d cin( rl l l r i i \ j l i aa s [ ' d h i n ri l h e r r a r o l t ] r r ' i d c .l th a l h i : c o u n l r rs h o u l cclr t n t u u l h h a sl h ek n o u - h o r rl ( )p r o d u c !a l o n r i ch o n r b sI l i s a n s u u r t a s\ c n c l ! ' t f I i t ! r c c .I r rl h , . ' r c L t r r n rrLl i r : j ( ( . l r . r . r i J l l ' t i | a z i l f l a r s I o h r i r cr b cl r o r r b .r ) r e D $,-ruld i l t . r l h c n r i l i t l l c q L r i l i b r i r ti n n r a r l i r c cr rd i n l a J n r r t[icca c t i o rl ]i o m i t \ l l c r c o \ u f p . r 1 n ! ' 1.5{ .r l c n l i n aa. s\ c l l a : [ ] r ' . i z r l . . L l r t . lrrdLrn d l c r i l l o l l r l cu n c r ! \ . b u t $ i t h p a c i l i cp u r p o s c sl t. i l s n c i t h b o rp l i i n st o d e r e l o pm a s s i r cc i c s t r u c t i o\ (l il t p o l t ! . l i r c n l h r \ r g c n t i r c r r i l i t a r i . ' r r o u l dp u s l rt h e i rc i r i l a u t h oirt i c : t r rl o l l o * I l l a z i l ' sp a l h .

Iirazil's derelopinga nuclearprogramaltcr nrilitan cquilibriumrcsultingin massirt dcstructionbct\\ecn its neighbors P r a r d a . 9 / l / 0 . 1 r " l h < B r a z i l i a nN l i n i s t eor1 - s c i c n csca i dl h l r lh i s c , ) u n l r sy h o u l d" h a n d l et h c l t o r r i c l e c h n L r l o S ) r r r d k n o uh o u 1 ( ) p r o d u ac tco n r ibc o n r b s l. r t t p :c n r l i s h . p r a r d a . r u u o r l d l 0 0 3 0 l 0 9 . l l 1 6 l . h l r r l ) l f I l r r z i l p l a n \ l o h a \ e t h e b o n l b .t h c n \ r o u l d a l t c r i h c m i l i l a r \ c a u i l i b r i u mi n ( h e r c g i r ) pa n d t n a \ l n c e r d i n l o m a t i cr r - a c t i o n l i o n r i l s M e r c o s upr a n n c r \ . riith p.icific brit purpo5es. lf its nciehbor D,altslo derclop massivcdeslrl|clion $eapops.then thc 91419.5 Argentine nrilitaries\rould Dushtheir civil authoritieskr follow Brazil's path. Sourcesin !!Slugg!.!j]Ig A r m \ c o n f i r n r c dl o P R A V D A . R U e. ! I A ! e v e n i n p e a c e t i m@ m i l i t a r \ a c t i o n sa n d l h e A r m c d F o r c e sh a \ e d c f c n s i \ co l a n st o n e u t r a l i z ch Y p o t h e t i c anlc i e h b o r a t t a c k sT . h i s i s n e r e s p e c u l a t i o an s a n a r m c d c o n f l i c ti o t h e r c e i o ni s u n t h i n k a b l e$ i l h d c m o c r a t i c governments.

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'99 I{oberts l B r a d- R e s t ' a r c h ea r l n s r i l u t leo r D c l ' e n sAqn a l l s i s .B r a z i lh a st h c c a p a b i l i ll)o a c q L r i r ! ' r r n radnsd to cngagt in in armsracc 94. l hc'Nonprolil'cralion Ile\ i!'\\ l:all h t t p : c n r . n r i i s . c dpuu b sn p r r o 1 0 66 1 r o b e n 6 t . p d l ) O n e c a t e g o r \c o n s i s t o s f s t a t c s$ i t h t h c a b i l i t \ b u t n o t t h e n i l l t o a c q u i r e$ c a p o n so f m a s sd e s l r ( | c t i o n o r t o e n s a s ci n a r m s r a c e sr r i t h n c i s h b o r sT. h e l a t e n tc a p a b i l i t i e so f t h c s es t a t c ss h o u l d b c r c r r n r u c h i n t h e n r i n d o f ' t h e p o l i c l r n a k c r .A l l h a v e u n c x p l o i t e dN B C u e a p o n sc a p a b i l i l i c s .A n r o n s t h c s ca r c n r a n \ " r c D r p t a n tD r o l i f c r a n l s 1" i nS a n d rS p u c t o r 'tse r n l ) t h a th a v ea b a n d o n e ds t r a t r p i c \ r c a n o n so r t h e i r d e v c l o g n l e nnt r o g r u m s( c . g . .S r ) u t hA f r i l a . A r g e n t i o a .R r a z i l .I ' k r a i n c I. l c ' l a r u sa.n d K a z a k h s t a nT)h. e s cc o u n t r i e sa r e r i g h t l Ya f o c u so f D r o l i f e r a f i o cn o n c e r nf o r a n u m h e ro f r e a s ( , n sO. n l ) ( ) n c i s t h c c a s e$ i t h r r h i c h d i s i r r t e r e snt r i g h ta g a i n b c c o m e i n t c r c s t .M a n r r e c c i v cl r a n s f c r so f m i l i t a r i l \ s c n s i t i v ct c c h n o l o g \a. n d s o m ca r c c o n d u i t sf o r f u r t h e r l r a d e .T h e s es l a t c sa r c a l s oe s \ r n t i a l t o t h e p r o m u l q a t i o no f i n t e r n a t i o n anl o r m sa b o u tl \ e a p o n sa n d $ ! r a n d t h e f u n c l i o n i n po f m u l t i l a t c r a l | e g i n t c s| c f l e c t i n !t h r l s cr o r m s . \ \ ' i t h r r u tl h e i r p u n i e i p r l i o D; n l h t ! ' f l i r n l L \c o n ) - l ) r 1p r o l i l c m t i t r n .l h c l c s p \ r l : c 1 ( ]p r t r l i f i r a t i o r r\ i l l b c l i r r r i t c dt o a 1 c \ \ c ( ) u n t r i c sr.l o 5 l l \ l h o s co l t l r c d e \ e l o p c J \ \ ( r r l d . r i r l l r d e l e l c r i o t r :c o n : e r l L l e n c c s .

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Brazil- US needsBrazilas keytradingpartner Iirazil is a Kcr U.S,partner-it allons for bettcr leadcrship,cnvironmcnt,dcmocracr.and Jrcacekeeping. (lhallenge t.lSAID.JLrnc Il.2005.("ThcI)c\elopmenr . 'bud-r:et 'polic_r htip. rru ir. usaid.-r.:rrr cbil006 llc'br htnrl) \ \ ' i t h a D o n u l a a i oonf 1 8 2m i l l i o na n d t h e l a r g r s tc c o n o m \i n S o u t hA m e r i c a .B r a z i l i ! a k c \ U . S . D a r t n c ri t n d D r o \ i d e sa r c e i o n a l e a d c r s h i D r o l c o n t r a d c ,d c m o c r a c \ e . n\ironmcnta , nd DcacekccDing. l l r a z i l h a sm a d c D r o g r c s si n c o n s o l i d a t i ndge m o c r a t i cr c f o r m sa n d e s t a b l i s h i nrge l a t i v ee c o n o m i c s t a b i l i t \ a f t e r \ e a r s o f r a m p a n li n f l a t i o n .I n l 0 0 l - l - u i sI n i i c i ol - u l ad a S i l r a .o f t h c W o r k c r ' sP a n ) .\ \ a 5 cicct!'dI'residcnt$ith an unprcccdented 6lo; ()i'thcp('p(lar \1)tc.\/olcrssupponedl-ula \rith lhc cxpccta0r)n lhat he ti ould lighl poven). createjobs. and expandsocialscctorprograms.Nearll t\ o l carsinto his i l d D l i n i \ l f a t i oLnu. l a h a ss l r e n g t h e n etdh c c o n f i d e n c o e f i n t e r n a t i o n aal n d d o m c s t i ci n \ c s t o r sb v s h o r i n e u D I l r a z i l ' sc c o n o n l \ ,r u n n i n gD r i m a r \ b u d e e ts u r D l u sa. n d c o n l r o l l i n gi n f l a t i o n P . rrliminar\ 200{ c c o n o n r i fci q u r e sp r o i e c ta d r o p i n t h e 2 0 0 3i n f l a t i o nr a t e o f 9 . 3 7 0t o 7 o 1 ,a. n d a n i n c r e a s ci n t h c ccononic grolrth froul {1.5%'in ?(103to 5.(l70-

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I h q r r l ) . l l n s c \ c c f c t a r \ i ) o n a l d t { u n r : i c i dr r i l l r i s i t q ) u i t , ' .I c u r d o r . t i ' p a r r i , ' i p l t ci n t h c s i r l h l ) e t i ' n s eN l r n i s t . r r r l r r 11 l r c . , \ n r c r i c ar sr c c t i n l . I o r S L r u t hA n r c r i c a .r i h i c h t c l t s n u b b c Jb 1 \ \ ' a s h i n g t o nl i r r r t r r r sot i l h c l i n l i i r u r ( itc o r g e \ \ r c l r s . t h c l * o r i s i l s a r e a r r e l c o r r cc h a n g e .I l u l 1 h c ) n r a r \n o l n r c l n n r u c ho \ c r t i n c r l t r c ' s i c l e n I l u ! h i s r r ) l i k c l \ I o ! r \ r ' a n \ n r o r c p r i o r i t y t o l l . S . - l r l i r r A n r c r i c ; r nr t l a t i o n si n h i s s r - c o n .l ir r n r l h n n h r ' d i d i i l r i . l l r s t l l r c r c a s { ) r \ \ o r c l c l a t i r c l rs t r a i g h t l o r l a r d . J l r c r e g i o nd o c : n o t 1 1 ( r \icl n i r r r . ( J i i r ( c\ r c r r i l \ l i r r e r l l ( ) l h r I n i l e d 5 1 . r 1 ca \ .n d t l r c r ei s l i t t l r ' l i k c l i h r r o do l a r u . l c a r c h a l l c n g c1 na n l o l t h r c o L r n t I i c l' l r l l t . ' a r c i t . I r r n h c r n r o r c[.- a t i n, \ n r c l i c ah l r c h r r s e nl o \ i ( l c \ l c p a n \ i n r o l r c n r c n t i r ] t h c \ a r o l r l c n , ) r i \ n r .\ ! h i r h \ \ i l l l'.'nlljnl|tclllliilll1lt'c.,ccLlpaliLl \ \ r s l r j f r t L r n .I ) ( . - . u c l r n . l r e c t r . r r l l - l h ! r L . r t L o n 0 \l t h l r c g i r ! r l t l r r r :p r t r r , - . l1( r l ) r 1 c : . t l l i [ ] \ u l r l r \ r r \( c o l t r ( ' I S i r . ! . o l i i l l i rn r -o ' i t i o n l h c J c e i d c - o l Lni l a nl o ! r e d l cI I ' r . ' c I l l r i j c , \ r t r r L rt Jh c \ n r r f i c J \ { 1 ] l ' \ . \ ) h l i \ .1.lllrJ!ll.l.lp1lcllt'Lrtl1lktlrlt,tu!iiiIlnlonl.'nlLttllitlt|lcrllot'l1ctlrlIhc|t'itlritie:o1.tll.'lllr.iilclll \ \ i l i i i k c l \ c \ r n l i J r i ri (i i l l r ( \ . ! o n ( i I h c r l ( l r r i i r i ' t r i r r i ( , r ) ' . r i r l i n . r l l , ! r , ) t l r c l c : : i l r c l l ( L r l ) . rL' '. Jr \i lJfr(lr \ \ i i l ) . r c i r t l L r r c c t l h f e c r ) n o t n i !c r r l r . r r g oc. r i l j t r z t d [ . r n r r r r r ri n 1 l ] . I I I L ' L J r c \ ' , . r ' n r r r r r rlrnr.i lI rl t ( r r n S r c s . .r r i l i t c r l t i r t i t t p 1 , t c c .l h r \ \ l r i l c ' l l ( r r \ . n l r l l i r d n r r a s u r c 'r o i r l r n ' i 1 \ i l l h r o L r l l rc r c r r ! r e r t f r r e \ l f l c l i o r \ ( , r l , t i c . \ \ I ( j l h ( i r l l r r i l ' l . r f ( ( r l ( \ f l h i r L - - l hI c S . l l i j r l l , \ l \ i r l . 1 ( rl l r . 1rl ' o u r l r \ ' ' \ \ i l r ( ) ! ! . l | i l l . l ' i i n ' ] ! l r u _ ! u r . r l i . L \\ \ r l r c c c i \ r \ t r r i n gs u | | ] o f rl ) o t l )i r L l r .\ \ i r L t .l l , ' L s r . n . i l r i ! i r l L L ( riii i i i . \ \ . r . h i r g t o r\ ! i l l ( o r i l i n t Lt.\ , n r r r i n t r i i n :l tr r . r l t l r yd i p l o n l i i t i cl i \ l i | r ! ( l l ( ) r i rI ) r c . r r l c n lrl L r r L (r l r . r r r z i J l \ c f c z L r c l l rl . L r t l r er c l a t i o r r : h i pr r i l l i , . I f . L g l l L t l i c! i \ e n l h a I \ d t l . , . ' n , . l c n Lc !cr L' rI . Ir i Ir rrrr 'rrt ' l i \ r n l l i r i r lr L r r r ' r l r ' \ \. ] ll r l L r c f .l .h e . l L l J l i f i . l f i i l i o ! ) .il]Lj(.(rn!|..t\\illll|)JJrllidJ|.lrL,Lrrltjrlll.l.iLlt.r'.itil , i r r ! i l f r i l { r t \ r r r t l L t t r i L u t c t ..Lr l! ( l r i l r l ] r L i l | r \ l r r ( r r d r r L ] ll r , r i r . r l , Lhr e r r , r r c r c s l r r . l j r r t h r J ll r ! | r ( l l ( i f 1 . . , l l r r g o \ c f n n r c n lo l I ) r . \ i d c n t \ r t c n l c l ' r r r . l l t ! r c i . l l u l . l l l l l l l h a I n i l ! d S l u l r sc i u l r j L rt L rr c ' . o l r c t l ) e i n L ! r l i t l . o r i i t l l i n ! l . c o n { ) r l l i cn f ( ) h l c r r ri\r r l h c r c r , r r l l L r t\ \ . r . l r I l t , , f . l ( ' i r l . i' l . L , n r l ( r r Lf ( ) n ( ! r ' I l ( J rl l r f l f . l ! i l j l \ ( j r i ) . r r li,.\r l i r r \ t t t r ' r t e : i n l ' , r l t t r r r r , r t r r D d r . r c r . r l r . r l r r , ,i r, r ,. lr , . . t , ,1f I \ r l , , r r( , i f h c , l , r I r ' l r ' r r l t i ri r , - l ;l .r r \ \ ! i l k \ l i l l r . h c l o r et l l . l h c c o n r .r r i s i . \ r l L r . r r o n\\\ L i l rL l l l . f r , ' ! , ( . . , r r r l l r c I | \ . \ . L L 'l', r ' L ' h l r b' lL ,ct 1 i r r " i . \ \ i t J r t t L n i \ l r i r l ui !iri nl c o n t i n u cl h t s c i : o r r c l - bpl 'ttr l i t r i r t r a r l tl c l u l t r , l . - - l l r Ll t:L r b . r n J : l . r , l ci i f l ( r , 1 ! l r l t . lS l t : r i l t ' R c n r e . u t l t . t t i r t ' o l l l e t $ i !l rl \ rr j ! r u .l L i . c L I b ] l i t t r . r l, i ! r c ! n r ( r r r \ r , ' L r n r l . r ' e j l r r . r c . r o r . l ' r r i l l r - t l , l i i i f ' t i r l ( . . \ t l i l t . t ' l l r ! 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Brazil- Ethanolwith US angersCastroand Chavez Ethanol-depcnd ent relationshipbct*ecn the tlS and Brazil angcrsCharcz and Fidel (lastro s a m L o g a n I 1 4 0 7 " T h c $ i n - ui n e t h a n oal l l i a n c c I"S N S c c u r i t )\ \ a t c h . 5 9 0{t lrtlo: \r\r\\ isn..thz.chnc\\s s\\''dclrils.clil,)?lD-175-1(l arsuabl-ri!!!I!4!gd-!! lllhanol. il s.'cnrs.11_13!4 prc:cnce tlrazil.{14$ p!)\sibililies ol lirr $hile prcsenting rcal a influencein South Am€rica slobal immediatelY a f i e r B u s h ' sv i s i t t o B r a s i l i a V . e n c z u c l aP n r e s i d c nI ltu g o C h a r c za n d C u b a n l e a d c rF i d c l i t $ o u l d d r i v r ' u pt h e p r i c co l ' l i r o da r o u n d C a s t r od e c r i e dt h c e r i l s o f a s l o b a lc t h a n o lm a r k e l -c l a i r n i n g the u orld. The rvorld'spoor rrr)uldine\itabl) sulTcr.thel said.This argumcnl. h0*cr tr. rr rs abscrttfront t h e r c t i o n a l e n e r q \c o n f e r c n c h e e l do n l 6 A p r i l i n V e n e z u e l ai u. s t1 \ \ o\ \ c c L sa l i c r L u l l \ i s i l c dL l u : ha l Camp I)avid. Rathcrthan usethe lbrum $ hcre ll SouthAmericanheadsof stale\rerL'prcscnl10attackl.ula. Charczoflercd his supportlbr r'thanolas a rcgionalcners\ effon. Cha\cz is [autious ab()utlosing I J r z s i l i : r 'D $ o t c p t i asl u D D o r ft o r o t h c r r c g i o t l a el n d r a ] o r s .i n c l u d j n -r g r I l a n Lo i ' t h r ' \ o u l l la l l e f n t l i \ ul o t h c I n t e r n a t i o nM a lo n c t a nI ' u n d( I M I : ) .\ , 1 a n a) g r e eC h a \ e z \ r i l l r r o r k t o u n d c r m i n et h e ( : S - B r a z i cl t h a n o l r l l l i r n c eb c h i n dt h e s c c n c s$ h i l c p u b l i c l vs u p o o r t i n gt h c i d c ao f e t h a n o a l n d c r i t i c i z i n gt h c l , S r D D r i , n c hB. u t l - u l r r i i l l n o l h c s $ a \ e d . H e h a sp l N c e dl l r a z i l o n a D a t h1 o $ a r dt h e f u t u r e o l a g l o b a ( . t h i r p rn t r a r k c t .a n d t h c U S . n o l v e n r z u c l a .i s h i \ c h o i c er l a r l p c r

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Brazil- EthanolunderminesChavez (iooperation*'ith llrazil ovcr cthanolscverehundcrminesChavczand increascsIiS influencein thc region LlLrra('arlsen is thc dirt'cto|ol the IllC /\nrcric.l5Pro{ramin Nlerico('it_r.rrhcr.'shc hirsu olked us ir rrt ilt'r :tnd p o l i l i c aal n a l \ s t l b r t h e p a s t 1 ! \ o d e c a dTchsc.t.s r a z i l - t lFS. t h a n A ollianceAins1o[:ndi!1crc{)\uran(j(hi\-.. I ) r c a n r s .u r a z z i lN o r s D a o e rl.0 I l a r c h 2 0 0 7 l'resiJcnt(icorqe \\'. Bush hascmbarkcd on a fir c-nation tour of Latin Amcrica - lhc rnoslinrbil iou: of his presidencr- in an attempt lo reasserlU.S.leadershipin a region nherc oDenhostilitYto his go\ crnment and its foreisn and economicpoliciesis the norm rather than thc exceDtion.The U,S. Drcsidenthorresthat csDousinga new comnritmenllo "social iusticc" will undermine Venezuell's c r u s a d ef o r L a t i n A m e r i c a na n d C a r i b b c a nu n i t Yb a s e do n a r c i e c t i o no f U . S .d o m i n a n c ea n d t h c f r e e t r a d c m o d e l .B u s h ' st r i D s c c k st o b u i l d a n e $ c o a l i t i o no f t h e $ i l l i n g . i n t h e f a c eo f a c o a l e s c i negr o u o o f n a t i o n st h a t h a sd e c l a r e di t s c l fu n n i l l i n e t o c o n l i n u et o f o l l o u t h e e c o n o m i ca n d D o l i l i c adl i c t u m so I \\'asllington.

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.l $ i l h B r a z i l .l l r a z i l l , , u ' r h e \ k e \ t o t h c c a n r D a i g nt h. o u g h ,l i e si n t h e c o n s o l i d a t i oonf t h e r e l a t i o n s h i D i s L a t i n A m e r i c a ' sD o } l c r h o u s ca.n d c o n s i d e r e o d n c o f t h e f o u r c m e r q i n ge c o n o m i ctsh a t n i l l r i s c t o b c rri{iorola\ers$ithinthenertdecades.Th€cthanolallianceseek$tocoDsolidateane}rDonerlinein L a t i n A m e r i c at h a t r u n ! d i r e c t l vb e t \ r c e nt h e L l n i t c dS i a t c sa n d B r a z i l .r r i t h t h e d v n a m i cf o r c c b e i n g t h e l r a n s n a t i o n acl o r p o r a t i o n N s i t h i n t c r c s t si n b o t h c o u n t r i c sI.f t h i s a l l i a n c ei s c o n s o l i d a t eidt \ r i l c r o d c t h e B o l i t a r i a n D l a nt o i n l e g r a t ct h c c o n l i n e n ln ' i t h a n r o d e ol f s l a t e - r e q u l a t eedc o n o n l i cas n d V e n t z u c l a no i l . l t $ o u l d a l s ou n d e r m i n ee f f o r t st o s t r e n e t h c nt h e S o u t h e r nC o m m o nM a r k e t . l n t h c deal. Brazil gains capital to develoDethanol-Droducing technologieswithin its own bordcrs and crDort t h c m t o C e n t r a lA m c r i c aa n d C a r i b b c a nn a t i o n s l.n a d d i t i o nl o i n \ e s l n r e natn dc r e d i t st.h e ' S i oP i r u l o industrialists.lrc assuredpoliciesto extendagribusiness inlo (henmazonand otherregionsni)$ p(rFulated b\ small t'armers.'[heUnited Stateseainsqreater independenccfrom Middle East oil bY imDorting mor€ o f t h e c h e a pB r a z i l i a nc t h a n o l ,l l a l s ob c q i n sl o r c d r a w t h e m a Do f e n e r q vi n l e g r a t i o ni n L a t i n A m e r i c r b a s e do n B r a z i l i a ne t h a n o lr a t h e rt h a n V c n e z u e l a o n i l a n d B o l i v i a ng a s .t h u s n e u t r a l i z i n gt h c n o n e r o f nations it considersuflcooDeratiye. Cargill.one of(he largesto\\'nersand operators ofethanolproductionirr Brazil.and otheragribusiness corporations. cxpandsin the south\rhilc urrntinuin!to prr)reLlils corn inrL'r.sls in thc n()nhbr tttaintaining U.S. inrportt3ritli on cthanol.As mono-cropping for biofuelstakcsor'.'r hLrge tracls(il'land.srnalllbod fanrers$ho hare al$aysrcsislcdinrernational markd conlrolo1'landand rcsources \ \ i l l b ! ' c o n ta e s D c c i cisn d a n c e o r fextinction.

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t S-llrazilallianccu eakcnsCha\ e2 \ 1 , r n t lcl e c l i ! i . i o t r r n i i l il 5i ,trt h c\ \ a ! h i r r ! t oln\ r : t . t S . S c e k r l ' r r r n c r s b i p \ \ i t h l l r . i z i l , , n l . l h r i n o l . ( o , i r : : . ' i l r ! o i l - l { i e h\ e n c z u e l la\ I ' a n o l A i r r r .\ \ ' a s h i n i t r opno s ro n l i r r cI.c b r u a n t i -2 0 0 7 dn \ nl 0 nat n i c l el 0 0 l 0 : 0 7 n R 1 0 0 7 0 1 0 7 0 : _ l l 6 . l r t n r l l r t t p : \ $ r r . r r a s h i n g l o D p o s t . c o n t ' \ \ l lc- o S A O l ) . , \ t l L O l.l r l t z i l .I ' e b . 7- - T h e U n i t e dS t a t e sa n d I l r a z i l .t h e t $ o l a r p c s tb i o f u e ln r o d u c c r !i n l h r \ r r i r l d .a r c m e e t i n gt h i s $ c c k t o d i s c u s sa n c n c n e r g \ D a r t n c r \ h i Dt h a t t h e \ h o D cr r i l l c n c o u r i l g c c t h a n o lu s ct h r o u g h o u tL a t i n A m c r i c aa n d t h a t U . S ,o f f i c i a l sh o D c$ i l l d i m i n i s ht h c r c g i o n a li n f l u e n c e ol oil-rich Venczucla.ti.S. ol'ficialssaidthe)'e\pect to sign accordsrr ithin a ] ear thal \\ ould pronrotc technolosr.sharin{\\ ith Ilrazil andcncourasentor!'Latin Antericrnrrc'ighbors lo beconrchiolucl protJuccr': alld c(rnsuntcrs. l he llnitcd Statesand Brnril logeth('rlrodu.c ab\)ul7(l p!'rce ofthe \\orld'sethanol.r tucl l h a l l ) r c s i d e nBl u s hh a sc a l l e da c o m e r s l o nien r e d u c i n gU . S .d e o c n d e n coen o i l . " l t ' sc l e a r l \i n o u r i n l c r e s r-s - l J r . r z i l . a r ttdh r I n i r e d5 t a t e . ' -. - l h a lu c e r p a n dl h e . a n i c u l a r ic) l l r a n t \ l . d n d J l o b a lm r r k e rr , ) rb i o l u e l . p lhat il becornea globalcomnodin' of sons."saidR. NjcholasBurns.the Ll.S.undersecretaD ofstate.\rho rrith Braziliangov€rnment lcd discussions ol'ficialson \!ednesdrl,.For thc UnitedStates.tltc initiatirc is nlorc than Durel\ economic.VenezuclanPresidentHuso Chi\ez has cxoloitedreqionalfrustrations $ ith the market-driven economicDrescriotionsthat the United Staleshas promotedthroughout thc region for lears. and he has usedoil re\enue to Dromotcse\eral reqionaleconomicalliances.Bums declaredthat biofucl is no$ the "slmbolic centerpiccc"of U.S.relations$ i(h Brazil. a counar\ (hat L'.S. officialshavc lonq honedcould counteractVenezuela'sregionalanti-Americaninfluence,"Energ\ has tendedto distort the Doner of someof the states\rc find to be neeati\e in the $orld -- Vcnezuela.Iran - a n d s o t h e m o r e $ e c a n d i v e r s i f yo u r e n e r g vs o u r c c sa n d d c D e n dl e s so n o i l . t h e b c f l e r o f f l r e $ i l l b c , " Burnssaidal a ncrrsconference in SaoPaulo.

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Brazil- Chavezcould causea recession Hugo Chavez'srolc could causca globalrcccssion l C ( ) n s u l t a nl )t o I L o * a n a n d S c h o e n 0 7 ( M i c h a e l -L. a l i nA r n c r i c a n N c u s p a p e(ro l u r n n i s& . u g l a s -l .) o l i t i c a l I o n s u l t a nll,.o \ A n g c l e s T i n t r ' s . " D o e s H u g o C h a r c z h a v e u s n r c r a b a r r e l ? ' l - olsi m A ne gs e .I l ]ei s0 7 Itq1,rtrticl!'s l.rtirg95-,, r,lf :11(]7ttlU I-Li.rff!!(rrr!!1!lro!Llj l W i t h t h e D r i c eo f o i l h o v e r i n gn c a r S l 0 0 a b a r r e l a n d m a r k c t ss k i t t i s hb e c a u s oc f t h c s u b - D r i m c h o u s i r l gc r i s i s( n o lt o n r e n l i o rnh es l a b i ] i 1o] f t l . S h a n k sl.h e t l . S . t r a d cd e i i c i t t. h e$ c a l L l o l l aar n d delcrioratilrg domcsticconsunrer confidence). such a move on Chavez'sDart nould go a long *ar in t r i s Q e r i n ga r e c e s s i o nA.n o i l c r i s i sd u r i n s t h e C h r i s t m a ss c a s o n u i l h i t s , 1 0 ! ;s h a r eo f a n n u a rl e l a i l s a l c r $ o u l d b e € s D e c i a l ldvc t r i m e n t a il n t h c U . S .R i s i n eo i l p r i c e sh a v cc a u s c de l o b a lr € c c s s i o ni sr t h r p4g! 1-heSaudisand othcroil-producinscountrieshavetried1()incrcascoutpulto olket risingcosts.But qlro arc in lr \{orlrns aqainststirbilit}Jnd lbr high oilpriccs arc Chavczand lrrn's l\4ahnroud ,Ahmadine-jad. s l r a l e g i ac l l i a n c ct o p u s hu p t h c p r i c eo f o i l . O i l c ' c o n r t r n i sctasl c u l a lteh a to n a s u p p l -ya n d - dner l n db a s i s a l o n . 't.h ep r i c co l - r r i rl ro u l db e a b o u tS 5 0 :t h c r' e n r a i n i nSg. 1 5i n t h r 'c u r r t ' npt r i c r i' s a p o l i t i c apl r c m i u n r c i t u \ c db \ u n c c n a i n l irn t l r el s r a c l i - P a l c \ t i n iuaonn l l i c tI.r a n s s u s p c c t cndu c l c a pr l a n st.h er r a r si n l r a qa n , . r \ l r h x n i s t a ra n ds o c i a L l l n r c si nl l ) a k i s l i l nN.i g c r i aa n dV e n . r u c l a B . u t r r h c r et h c $ o r l d s c e s , t h r c a l . A l tn r a d i n t ' i a d a n d ( l h a r c z s e eo n o o r t u n i n : C i v i l d i r c o r dl i n e st h r i r n o c k e l sl.n C h a rc z ' sc r e s .a r ro r l d e c o n o n l i c r i s i sr l o u l d n r o v et h a t c a D i t a l i s m i s a f a i l u r c a n d t h e U . S . '" e \ i l c m p i r c " i s h i s t o r i c a l l \o \ e r . ( l t r re r z ' sl l r r l i r a r i a l- . o c i a l i se lc r u o n r i o c r d L '\rr o u l ds L r p p o s c dnl rl o \ cl L it h f f o r e l i ( D l l.: o f h i s p i r l . . ' \ h t t t r d i n c ' icaadnu s ei r o r ' l dc h a r ) tso g J i nh e g c n r o n si ct r e n g rilnl t h c ! l i d d l e E a s t T h c t 1 r o .$ o r L i n g i n c a h o o t sc. o u l dt h c n r e a t h o u t 1 oD a r t n e r si n S \ r i a a n d c l \ c \ \ h f r e i n t h e r e g i o n W . h o n d e n o c r i r c \c r ) n l c \ l ) c f o r ce c o n o m i td e \ e l o n m e n t\.r , u { c ( r C h r \ e z . \ \ ' h e n o u r l u \ l f o r o i l c o m r \ l ) c f o r u\ o u n d f o r c i g n D { ) l i f \ .\ o u g e t a r e c e s s i o n .

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Brazil- Chavezis a threaUwillstrike (lhar ez'sdcterminationis a thrcat and rvill spikc crisis t i o n aI il e r i e ! \ . 1 \0\ 8h .i pN.a- 1 l , r i c C a n t o r . C o n g r c s s m a n - V i r g i n i a a n d C h i e f D e p u t l . R e p u b l i c aI n jqt: qlurr l5=l) vic-rr&id lilUtenrl dcr_ ind,qr.ptUlbpl http: ctrlorrbircnrb.ors l_0 .conlcn!&1AL r c c a l l e di t s , i i p l o m a t s M o s t r e \ e a l i n g\ \ a sC h a r c z ' se r p l o s i r er c s p o n stco t h c t l r i k e .V c n c ' z l r c il na t m c d i r t r ' N lionr(olrrnrbiaandnrobiiizcdl0arrnlbattalionsonthcColonrbjrtnl)ord!-r\rhil!'Prc55ittglhavr-'zsull-r. I:cuadorilnPresidcntRafaclCorrea.t0 activatchis Iorcesasuell. Norr *e lcarnthataltcr thc strikr:on Re)cs.C()lqnbianauthtrrities recovereda trcasuretro\c ofincrintinatingdataon lhreelaplopcolr]pulers aboulthe lree c\posingChavczand Corrca'sintimalclics to the IiARC. Iirr years.ISogotahasconrplaincd rein and outrightsupponChar.ezhasgir,-'nthe rebelsinsidcVenezucla.Bul no\\ egl!4u4!4i!!!3! c r i d c n c ct h a t C h a v e zr e c e o t l \e a r r t h e r c b e l t5 3 0 0m i l l i o p .m c t s e r c r a lt i p e s i n s e c r e l$ i t h h i s h - l c r c l FARC leadcrs.and has e\en accentedcash from them whcn he rras imDrisoncdl6 \'cars ago. Cha\ez's d r t e r m i n a l i o nt o u n d c r m i n eb o t h C o l o m b i aa n d o u r \ , r a ro n d r u g si s $ h | N e c a n n o tt u r n o u r b a c k so n the pendins trade deal u ith Colombia. While the agreemcnllanguishes in the ha)lsofCongress.Chavez s c i z e st h c o n o o r t u n i l t l o e x n a n dh i s i n f l u e n c ea n d n r o v o k cc r i s e si n t h e r c g i o n .\ ' e n e z u c l a ' us i n d f a l l oil t)rr)filsha\c fuelcd Durchasesof53 brlljon in Russianarrns.lrrrorists 1ofighl Dro\) nars apd. hcrc i n A n t e r i c a . . l o eK c n n c d r .S o m eo f t h e s eo u r c h a s eos f m i l i t a r r h a r d r l a r ei n c l u d eh e l i c o D t e r s5 .U - 3 t ) S u k h o if i s h t e r i e t s .a n d o t h e r $ e a p o n st h a t a r e b l r t | k r u p t i n gt h c V c n c z u c l a n c o p l eb u t m a l i n e ( ' h a \ c z a m a i o r t h r e a l t o t h e s t a b i l i t \o f S o u t h A l r l e r i c a C l i r s l s l e p\ \ h c n i l . o n g r c slso o k a r i e l c o n r e r c c c n t l \p i \ \ c d a n e \ l e n s i u ro f t h e A n d e a nT r a d eP r c l e l c n c eAsc l { A l l ) A ) 1 ( )c l i n r i n J l o e r r c d u c rt r r i l l : o n i l l l l L ) n \I ; o n tC o l o n r h i al '.e r L rl .r c u a d o rl n . d l l o l i r i a l l u l l h c A l l ) , \ l i r i l . t o l c \ c l t h , :n l e .irn - !l.l r, : 1 dl i ' r l . S . r \ p r ) 1 1 c f il h i l t s u r l i ) n u n a l cs i n c e( o l o o r l ) i i sr t h c t l r i r d - l a r . { cr sr Lt r r k cr Ln S o u t h. \ t l ] r I i c a .l h . [ \ I frabdi a c I ) r o n r o t i o' l\ g r c c n t e ' rntlo u l d I n t c f l ] l i l i o r al rl a d e C o r ] ] r n i s s i 0 n e s t i n r , l t c s t h a l t h e t . : - C o k r n i n c r e a slc . S .r \ p o f l s t o C o l o n r b i a b S l L I t r i l l i o nI.r n p o r l sr r o u l ciln c r . r ' c t . r \ J E r n r r l l r o nl .l , , \ \ i r , ' n i ! t h l l t o n r d r \ ( ) l 1 h i st r a d ea 3 r ! , c n r esno1p p ( ' n ! ' n il lsr el l l r . ; i r r e p e o p l cr r h oc o n l i n u a l lrl r l i n gt h e i rh a n , . lo: r e r l h e l n r d cd c l l c i l . _ l r . S op . p o n r ' Dot il t h c a g r e r ' n r cunst ct h c i s s L r0e1 ' r i o l c f r ca g a i n sLl r n i oD n r c r ] l b c irnr C o l t r r r L r t a t o s c l u c l ethh ed e a l .l h c r r r o n ' ta c L n i r $ l e d gt h d l l i r r tl h c L r i b cg o \ ( ' r n n r c nr ct c c n t l ll t a : r r a d ct t , ecr c i l o u b l c e thoseriho do thenrharl]r.\/iolcnccagainstlaborlclders hasdrop;tqd lrotccl rlnionislsancipr,rsecutc r f l r k t d l r r s l h e g o r t ' r t t D r esnpr c n d sS i 8 n r i l l i o l l i r r t h i ' i rp r ( r l e c l i ( J n .l -hl .r I l s l c c n l u D . f i c e l r a d e a n d l h c L r p ee n r c h ,r " ' o l i J c ; r 'i r a p o r r c r ' 1 fl rl c c h a n i s nnro t o n l \ 1 oc n l r a n crcr u I c c o n o n r b\ .L rllo p r o r n o t e , l c n : r ' c m ci r ) J g o o d\ \ i l l ( ( ) n g r c (\\\ L r u l !bj c r r i s r t L r| l s r t h c( o l o r r l r r alnr l d e d f i l l i r n . lu p h o l dt l , eh o n dt , t ' . l - i L l i nA n ] e n c aa. n dc ' P c c i a l l C 1 [ r s ti n t l | c r l r n l oa l t l ] cs l i l no f n c g o t i a t i ( l n r r!i t h( ' r r I r n r t l i aI n l ( ) 1 ( ) r l r i li r1a . c i l Ns a r ' \ ci r \ a n a n t i d o l cl o C h i i \ e zs i l ! ! f c s \ i \ c a n l i -\ n t c r i c i i rrto c i l t l r sat n t b i t i 0 n s .

Venczuelar\ ill strikc 'l)5 Chapman [orc'casiei-. ]-E-{)r. lnlbfnration( Iclrinr:lJoLrsc. 1tsob.Intc'rnational lrtl|i \\\\!! Inl!)rn'ralirincl.lrflnghou\c.rnlilirticle8l]1,i.lr!.l.Ll) T h e f i n a l s l r o k er i l l c o m et h i s \ c a r $ h e n P r c s i d e nC t h a \ c z s \ \ i t c h e st o t h c P e t r o - t : u r oo. r c r e a t c sa l - a t i n A n r e r i c a nc u r r e n c \ .l n a s m u c h a s t h e U S i s p r e o a r i n gC o l o m b i at o i n \ a d e V e n e z u e l al h. e f a s l c r M r. Char cz acts the better. 1 .l A pood time to makc the s\l itch lr ould be in June \l hcn I ran opens their oil erchansc,$hich rre understandrrill trade oil in dolhrs and euros.,{1 lhal poipt, ric belierc il \ r o u l d h e t o o l a t ef o r t h e U S - C o l o n b i al o i n v a d ec i ( h € rl r a n o r V c n c z u e l aT. h c \ ( o u l d \ r e l l b r i n e o n nuclrar$ar $ ith Chinaand Russia.

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imPact1/3 Brazil- FTAAJTaiwan Ilrazil-LtSrclations are kcr to the FTAA. Af1'airs 7-17-03 (RandalK.. I)cpartfient(rI lraasu|f AssistantSecrctar)(rl'Treasuqlbr Intcrnational Quaflt's ofConrnercc.RegulatorylntelligcnceData.I-N) B razili.rn-American C--hambcr l m D o r l a n tm u t t i l a l e r a il n i l i a t i v c st o r c d u c et r a d t b a r r i e r s g l o h a l l lt h r o u r : thh e W o r l dl - r a d e ( ) r q a n i z a t i o rne. g i o n a l lt)h r o u e ht h r F r e eT r a d eA r c ao f t h c A n l c r i c a (sF T A A I - a r e n o \ r ' u n d e r $ t t \ . BraTil is positionedto take a leadcrshiorole in theseinitiativc!. AmbassadorZoellick lras recentlv in Brazil to discussnext steDson the FTAA. While muchwork rcmainsto be done,the UnitedSlatesremalns cornntiltedlo achic'ringthe January2005 deadlinc.As co-chairsofthis cffon. Brazil and thc Unitcd States b e a r a s i g n i f i c a n rt e s D o n s i b i l i ft o v r b r i n g i n qt h € F T A A t o f r u i t i o n ( ) u r q o a l ! a r c a m b i ( i o u sb' u t prcrvidca good achicvable.U.S.-BrazilianCooDerationIhe first nronthsofthe [,u]aadnrinistration indicationoi its seriousness in addressing Brazil s key economicchallengcs.Sucha processis nevereas1. i l u t l o r c a c ho b s t a s i et h. e r ei s a l s oa n o p p o n u n i t )I.n t h i ss p i r i l .i t r v a sa n n o u n c cddu r i n gI ' r c s i d e nl t- t t l i t: r i s i rt o \ \ a s h i n ! : t oi na s tn r t r n t h t h a tt h c i i n i t e dS I a t e sl l c a s u r yl ) c p r r t n r c natn dB r a z i ls f i n a n c e\ l i n i s t r r \ \ i i l initizrlcrc-rularconsultaiions econorlicgro\\1hirt bothcountries.1-hisdialoguc thc (irou1'' on acceleraring l b r ( j r o u r h u i l l f a c i l i l i l l ci n - d e p t d hiscussion o sn g r o \ r l hs t r a t e g i c sl l. \ r i l l ( . n a b l eu s t o s h a r ee x D c r i c n c c a n d l ) e s tD r a c l i r e sf o r a d d r c s s i n g c o m n r l ) nc h a l l e n g e sl.t r i i l l D r o Y i d ca f ( ) r u p f o r d i s e u s s i o nl cs' : s r r n ' i('ilrncdin suchaTcasas refrrTnring lo lht (rdrliolt anLj fiscaland tar policie:: rcducittgintpc-dinrcnts : pBjilg e r p a n : i o no l - s n r r l l a n d mcdiunr-size co d r n p a n i eisn:c r c a s i nign r c : l r n e nal n db u s i n e scsr e d i l p t r r d c i d e \ e l o p i n gi n f r a s t r u c t u r ea: n d s l r e n e t h c n i n d g o m e s t i c o m D c t i t i o nT. h r o u g ht h i s a n d o t h c r a r c | \ o f c n g a g e m e n t .h f U n i t e dS t a l c sl o o k sf o r \ r i r r dt o $ o r k i n g $ i t h o u r B r a z i l i a nD a r l n c r sf { , : t d \ a | l c eg r o r r l h a r Cp o \ c n ) r c d u c l i o rs]l r i l l L ' g i iers)! r u r1 \ r oc r ) u r l n r sa n dt h t o u g h o ul hl c l t a n ' l i s p h c f e

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Brazil- Democracyimpact1/2 BroadertlS-Brazilianbio-fuelscooperationis criticalto cnsuringBraziliandemocratic influenccin Latin America. li)rWcslcm Heorisphere Afl'airs10-17-!l(Christopher.'Ll.S.-ilfaril McNlullen_Depuly Assistant Sccretary R L . l a t i o nFso: r g i n g a S l r a l c g i c P a r t n e r s h i p " . h t t p : " \ \ $ \ \ . s l a l e . g o v , ' p ' * h a ' r l s ' n r ' 0 7 ' ' q 4 , ' 9 1 l 5 5 . h t n r ) l l a ! i n g s p e n l h e l a s ll u o l c a r sa sC o n s uG l c n c r ailn S a r :[ ' a u l o .I c a na l l c s t h a tn r ) \ \i s a n e x c i t i n gt i n r ei n ( r . S . - l l r a z i l i arrct l a r i o n s5.u c ! i n c t l rp u t .o t l r r e l a t i o n s h i D i s t , r o a d .i ( i s b i g .a n d i t i 5 i m n o r t a n tl o b { , t l l t .n d m u t u a l l ! s h a r c d s i d c s .I t i s a l s ob a s e do n a s o l i df o u n d a t i o no f m u l u a l i n t c r e s t sm . u t u a lr e s D e c a values.As SecrctaryRice hassaid.uc r iew Brazil as a regionalleadcrandglobalpartner.BIgZiListhe lihh largestcouDlryin the world and the tcnth largesteconoml'.I1has enormousinfluencein Latin Anerica. I l r a z i l b o r d c r so n t e n c o u n t r i e sa n d e \ e r t sD r o f o u n dc c o n o m i ca n d p o l i t i c a li n f l u e n c co n a l l o f t h e n l , [lorc broadl\, Brazil is a model for countri€sin the rcgion as0iring to becomctrue dcmocr?cicsu ho\c govcrnmcntsact responsiblvand are rcsDonsiveto their DeoDle.We look to Brazil to erert its lcadcrshiDlo moderatenooulistand anti-democratictendenciesevidcntin severalgo\ernmcntsthat art oul of step\\ ilh rcsl of the hemisphcre. recentl)obser\cd lhal C)urAssistantSccrctary.To Shann(m. ' :ucccsslirl t l i p l o n r a ciln t h c r e q i o ni s b u i l ta r o u n dp o s i t i r ea g c n d a sc .( ) o f e r a { i ocno. l l a h o r a l i o un n. i r i L r [ t n L i e a c c k c c p i nn:i i t l . , . u r u l l i l l l c f a l r s l r l. n t h J tc o n l e \ 1B. r a z i l ' rk r n gt r a d i l i , r o n l n r r r l l i l a t c ncinl g a : l e n r cuntlr , p i l r i r u l u r a lr c l i o n a ll e a d e ar n dg l o h a lp l r r n c r O . n ep l i n r ce x i r n r p lie: i n l l a i t i * l t e r c B r a z i li s t h t l e . i r l r r r g l r o o Fc o n l r i b u l ollo t h e L n i t c dN a l i o n sS t a b i l i / a l i o\nl i s s i o n( M 1 \ L l S lA I l ) . a n da [ ] r a z i l i a (nj c r r ua l i - \l l s c o n r n r a n d ePr r. c s i d c nLtu l l ' s a d r r i n i s t r a t i ohna ss h o r n s t r o n gl e a d e r s h i p n s u p p o n i n ag l l n r o n t hr c n c r i i t l r ' l \ l l N L l S L \ H s n r a n d a l r\ '\ ' e a g r r ' a\ \ i l h B r a z i lt h a tl h c ' r em L r sbl e u s r r n c c r t ccdl ' f r r rrlr n : c c u r i l rl r n L i is i r . t i t L r t i oinr L r i l d i nl b g r . r r i a h l c .s t a b l ea r r dd r n l o c r i r i cl l a i t i .{ l o t h c l e r a m l l c o f o u r c o l l a b o r a ( i o n B r n z i l ' sc ( t o s t r u c t i \ er o l c i n a d \ a n c i n qa r c g i o n a l a q c n d a b a s e do n d e m o c r a t i c\ : r l u c ! .\ \ ' h i l et h c i el t a s b e e nt a l k a t r o uat s h i l tt o t h el e f i i r l . a l i nA n l c r i c at.h el r u t hi s l h a lt h c r ei s b r o a dc o n s e n s ui n. t h e r c g i o nl L r r dcnrocra i ct ! o \ e r n n r c n l rsc. d u ci n gp o rc n r . a n de \ p a n di n s e c o l r o ni cr o p p o r t u n i t i el osr a l l p c o p l ec. s p e ica l l l nrarsLralizL \ e' Jc l o r sA . \ S c c r e t a nR i c cr a i d l a s tr r e e L . t h ce \ c e p l i o nl\o t h i s { r c g i o n acl o n s c n s u \nl r a } b c n i r i s l .i r u tt h c l a r ci r r ' l d i n gi n t h c t r p p t r : i tdci r c c l i o no i l l t c h c n r i s p h ear csa * h r r l e . "l n l a c t .t h c l i i e n d : h i pa n d our conrnlitmcnlto *orking uith,.lrrnr.rcralic Illtncrship l)ct\\ccnthc I r]ilcdStateslnd llrazil underscorcs l i i e n d si ' r t h c r e g i o n r e s i r r d l e so -1s' \ \ t e r et h c ! l a l l o n t h c p o l i t i c asl p c c t r u nTr .h e c e n t c r p i c c oc f o u r \ l r a t e g i ct ) n r t n e r s h i pa.n dt h ca r c a( h c r e ' l l r a z i l ' sl e r i d r ' r s hhi pa sb r ' r ' nd e c i s i r ei.s o u r c o o J r c r a t i oonn l ) i o l . t l c l l\ . h i \ i o i n t i n i l i a t i \c u n d e r \ c o r c o s u r \ i c \ \ ( ) f B r a z i la ! n o l o n l \ a r e q i o n r ll c a d c r .b u l a l s oa \ a i t l o h a lt ) , l r l n c r .

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Brazil- Democracyimpact4/4 l)cmocracris kei to solvingtcrrorism l l u ' 0 6 i t ' c g g y B . - W a s h i n g t olni l e S l a f fW r i l c r .\ 1 a r c h1 6 . 2 0 0 6 .1 a s . C l o b aSl c c u r i t y . o r g . p:iliullil]Iiu! ncs s I00(r_QLqil-(t('01 l6-Lr\iirol.$!) ftrn: *}I'r: lo!4l5gqqritl.orlr T h e s n r e a do f d e m o c r a c \a r o u n dt h c $ o r l d i s e s s c n t i aflo d e f e a t i n gt e r r o r i s m .S e c r e t l l o f S t a l e C o n d o l e e z zRai c cs a i di n J l o $ ' nh a l l n r e c t i nrgv i t hs t u d c n tisn S ) d n e ) .A u s t r a l i al \. ' l a r c h1 6 ." N o r . i n l i n t c s o1'chaIlerrge* c nced1orcrncnrber that ticedomand equality. denrocral and opponunit) . humand ignitl and i n d i r i d u arl i g h t sa r ea t t h ec o r eo f u h o * c a r e . T h e l n r a k c u s g r c a t e r t h a n o u r s r r a l l s c l r e s . a n d t h c y 'l'hc sLrlrron us to def-end secretaq\aid that our nal' of lile rvhenclerthat ua) of life is attacked."shesaid. thc United Statesand Au\traliasupportthc causeof dcmocrac\. rlol "becauseu e think ourselvesperlccl."bu1 "bcclusc*c knorr oursclrc'sto be inrperfecl.$ith krnghistorir.st;1'orrrorrn failurcsand tirlscstan\ ir our qucstftrr.justand perfectdemocracies." Acc(rrdingto Ricc.thc tJnitedStatesand Australia-- and othcr rlcnrocrircics aroLrnd the rrorld -- arc norr entaqedin "a strugglt'ofmanr decadcsthat \!ill raquircpatiencc. i i r d c ( ) r r i l g La.n d) e s .- \ l c r i l l c e .""L , i L ee r a r \ o t h e r n a r t h a l o u l a l l i a n c ch a s$ a g e d .l h c $ a r o n t c r n ) r i s [ r m u s t b c f o u e h t\ r i t h t h c f o r c eo f a r m s $ h c n n e c e s s a r-\- b u t i i ] r ' i l ln o t b c $ o n b \ f o r c c o f i r m s a l o n c . A s i n o u r s t r u g g l e sa s a i n s tc o m m u n i s ma. n d N a z i s ma. n d m i l i t a r i s m i, t i s t h c l o r c e o f h u r p u pf r e r d o mt h a t $ i l l u l t i m a l e l \d c f c a la n , d c o l o q ]o f h a t r c d a n d r i o l e n c e . s" h cs a i d .A c c o r d i n - s t l { i c c .d c n r o c r a ch} c l p sp r e v e n tl c r r o r i s t sf r o m g a i n i n ga f o o t h o l di n s o c i e t \h v D r o \ i d i n ga \ o i c c f o r t h c d i s a d l a n t a g c d .I l r o u t h i n ka b o u tl h er o o l \ ( ) 1 ' t c r r o l i s rsnh.r ' : a i d ". i f 1 o u t h i n ka b o u t$ h ; r tt h e ya r er e a l l , ' dlarrin:l rccruitstiorn . it Lsthc h,.rpcle:snts: irndtlrc absclccrrl liccdonrihrt gi\cs thenrlt.'rroristslan o p p ( ) f t u r r lt\o s p c a l. . . i n t h e s e! r l r c n r cr r a r so n b c h a l l - o l - 1dhirs: l l f c c t c d . "l l . i n s t c a dp. c 0 p l cr i l r , ra r c d i ' a 1 l i ' c t e dp . o p l ! ' \ r h oh l i r ec o n c e ' r ' npsc-o l ) 1\.\ h o I r r e c o n r l l a i r r t ps !. ' o p l r\ \ h o h e r eb c e nd i s r d \ i l l l a ! . r Ji r l \ ) r l c\ \ a \ r r ra n o t h c fl.t a r c l c g i i i n r l t c l r ; r n n cllhs | o i r g h\ \ h i c hI o r r ) l o l C d r c 5 tsh r i f r f i r r r n c ( ' 5 -I c r i D n o l b ( ' l i c \ ct l l a li t $ i l l b e n r o r cD o n L r l laor n r a l er o r r rc h i l . l | c n: u i c i d eb o m b c r lsh a nt r rs t ' n dl h c n r1 oL r r i r r r s i t r . s h es a i d

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A c c c D t i n gt h e D r c m i s et h a t a s t r o n g .\ ' i b r a n l .f r e e r n a r k c td e m o c r a c \i n l J r a z i ls e r \ c sb o t h c o u n t r i c . . t h c L I Sm u s t b e p r e p a r c dt o s u n p o r tl l r a z i l ( r h c t o r i c u l l tre. c h n i c a l lar n dl i n a n c i a l ltla s i l l b c u s e o s n thr (\\!'r drrnr.'stic it pa\1 sereral Specilic inrplr'nrc'nlin! the rr'ars. folitical andeconomicrclbrnrs hashe'c'n c h a l l c u g cl sc n r . r i ni n r c d i s l r i b u t i oonf i n c c r n ratn coi i p o l i t i c arl e p r c s c n l a i i onrr)a. n a i t e n r c( )nili l s d o n ' r c s tui rn d i n l e n r a t i o ndael h t .a n dc o n t i n u c idr n p o s i t i oonf f i s c a a l n dn ( r n c t a r ) d i r c r p l i n e . h l l i \r _ ! ! t ! . U ! U ! t !lli!br ] U r t l n i r l i l e s t V r l1) l : i r q r L r ! !\'.j l r l l ) l ' _ 4 l r r i i \ \ h e l e r e rp o s s i l r l c . 1 i , \ l ! i n ga r r i n - w i nf r r l i c r . 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Food- High prices) massdeath Incrcasedfood priccsrr ill kill tlS economl',increascoil priccs,and causcmassslan aiion killing 95'Z'of the u'orld. Adams 08 [Nlile. stalTu'riter 1brnaturalnovs.com" lhc BiofuclsScam.FoodShcirtages andthe ( orning C o l l a p so r :1 ' l h e) l L r n r aPno p u l a t i o nA p r i l ? 3 . 2 0 { ) 8h t t p : s * r r n a l u r a l n r ' u s . c ot irl n l09l.hlnrlJ S o .1 ( r) c p e a lt.h c f o o d b u b b l ci s n o l , r ' s t a r t i ntgo i m D l o d eW . h a t d o e si t a l l m e a n ' ]l t m e a n st h a t a s t h e s c c c o n o m i ca n d c l i m a t cr c a l i t i e su n f o l d .o u r w o r l d i s f a c i n qm a s s i \ cs t a r \ a t i o na n d f o o d s h o r t a g e sT. h c firsl placethis nill be felt is in Door devrlopine nalions. It is lhercthat peoplclive on thc edgeof t c o n o r r i cl i l c l i h o o d !. \ h e r ee r e n1 2 0 % r i s ci n t h ep r i c co f b a s i ci i r o ds t a p l ecsl n p u rd c s p c r a lt)c, n e e d c d calorico s u t o l ' r c a c ho l t e n so f m i l l i o n so f l ' a n r i l i e sI f.s o m e t h i n gi s n o t d o n et o r e s c u et h e s cp c o D l ef r o n r t h c i r D l i g h t .l h e \ ' $ i l l s l a r v et o d e a t h .W c a l t h Yn a t i o n sl i k c A n r e r i c aC , a n a d a .t h c L l . K . ,a n d o t h c r s\ r i l l he ablc 1o absorb thc Drice incrcast's.so \ou \\'(D'lsceDrassslar\ationin Nonh Anrcricaan) lirne soon ( L t n l c r so.i c t r u r s ea.l l t h ch o n c rb c c sd i e .i n ! ! h i c hc a s cp r c p a r e l o s t r n c h c \ \i n g) o u r s h o c l a c e s)...b. u t i t $ i l l l e n dt o s i ! : n i f i c a nitn c r c a s c isn t h e c o s to f I i \ i n e . a n n o l i n gc o n s u n r c ar sn dr c d u c i n qt h ea n ' r o u nolf m o r ! _ , a\ilrlable l i r r o l h e rp u r c h a s e1sl i k e\ a c a t i o n sc.a r s f. u e l .e l c . ) .T h a l . o f c o u r s e .\ a i l l o u l d o \ r n \ r a r dn r c s s u r ( o n ( h c n a l i o n a lc c o p o n l \ .B u t n ' h a (r l e ' r es e e i n g. i q h ( n o $ . f o l k s ,i s i u s (! l s m a l ll ' o r e s h a d o n i nogf ( \ t n t s t o c o n r ei n t h c r e \ t c o u D l co f d c c a d e sT. h i n k a b o u ti t : l f l h c s e m i n o r c l i m a t cc h a n g c sa n d f o ( , l i s h b i o f u c l sD o l i c i c a e l a r t ] l i n ! r i s c si n f ( X ) i n l r i c c s .i u s t i m a g i n r$ h a t \ i c ' l l s c c $ h r n s rc alread\unlcashina I ' e a l 'O i l k i c k si n a n d s l o b a lo i l s u n p l i e sr e a l h s t a r l l o d n i n d l e .W h c n g a s o l i n ci s S l 0 a g a l l o ni n t h c t . s . . h o * c r n e n s i r cu i l l f o o d b e a r o u n dt h c r r o r l d ?T h c a n s n c r ,o f c o u r r c .i s t h a t i t r r i l l h c t r i n l c o r e u a d r u D l el h e c u r r c n l D r i c c .A n d t h a t n r c a n sm a n \ r n o r co e o D l c\ 1 i l ls l a r \ e .

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CNI)l lk8-9 Reslents

F o o d - H i g h p r i c e s ) C h i n e s ei n s t a b i l i t y (Jro'rr ing food pricesarc a major sourccof politicaland socialinslabilitvn ithin China Ins(itutc l-l:Sll:R R. BROWN 1995cxccutiredirectorol'l'hc \\'orldu'atch http:1,/uu u .crrragazine.com,'r ie*/'.)1,1 O n c u a r o l c l i s t r i b u l i nsgc a r c cr e s o u r c ei s t o l e tt h c n r a r k cdt o i t s . j o bl.n d e c dg. i r c n t h e ' e c o n o n rriccl a r n r si r l the llrmer SovielUnionand China.rclianceon thc n'rarkct10dislributei'oodis nou ncarlyuorldu ide. \ \ ' h e n err' rd' c n a n do u l r u n s u p p l i .t h c p r i c er i s e sr.e d u c i n g d e n r a n \d\ h i l ce n c o u r a g i nagd d i t i o n aslu p p l ; . denrandand supplyand Fronra purr'lr econonricstandpoinl. thc marketdoesa goLrd -iobo1'balancinq distlibutinrlirird Bul fronra socialpoint ofrien. risingpricesoi lixrd canquicllr lle'comelile-tbrcatcnirt.: l i r t i r . '* o r l d ' r p o o r e ; tI.r c ' rt h e 'l h i r d \ \ ' u l l d ' sr u r a ll a r d l e s si r n di l s s h a n l r t o s nr e s i d c n tush o a l r c u t l )r n l r s p e l r dl ( ) n c r c e nol f t h e i r i n c , r n roen f b o d .c v c na n r o d e srti s ci n l b o dp r i c c :c a nt h r e a l c sn u r v i r a l(. h i n a : prospcctirccrncrgcnce as a rnas:ivcimponerof lixrd m:tr rrell lorcethe *orld t()addressthis long-ignorcJ i s s u eo l d i s { r i b u t i o nl f. g r a i n D r i c e sr i s c i n t h e \ e a r s a h c a d .a s n o $ s c e m sl i k e l \ . t h e \ c o u l dc r e a t ea n u n n r e c e d e n t edde g r e eo f i n s e c u r i l \ .N o e c o n o m i icn d i c a t oirs m o r cp o l i t i c a l l l ' s c n s i l itvhea nt h i so n c .l \ . j ! l h c i n t c r n a t i o n alle \e l , c l i m b i n gf o o d D r i c e sc o u l d l e a d1 o D o t c n t i a l l u . hrupt \ n m a n a g c a b licn f l a t i o n a \ h i f t s i n c u r r c n c \ e r c h a n s er a t e s .a n d n i d e s p r e a dD o l i t i c ailn s t a b i l i t \ T . h i s .j n l u r n .c o u l dj e o p a r d i zteh c :ccrrrito r i i n r e s l n r e nilns f r x ) d - i m p o r t i nceo u n t r i e \r u c h a s C h i n a .L - e l p l a . n dl \ ' 1 e \ i c ol.n a d d i t i o pl o nising fo1)dDrices.thc failurc Io al'resl the drlrrir)ralion of our ba!,iclife-suppr)rts\ sternscould briirg c c o n o m i cg r o \ r t h t o a h a l t .d r o o D i n gi n c o m e sa n d f ( x r dn u r c h a s i n qD o r , \ clrh r o u g h ( , utth c n o r l d . l t c o u l dl r { d t o r r o l i t i c aul n r e s ta n d a s $ e l l i n gf l o } r o f h u n g r } m i g r a n l sa c r o s sn a t i o n a lb o r d e r s .R i s i n g f o o d n r i c c r a n d t h c a s s o c i a t cedc o n o m i ca n d D o l i t i c adl i s r u n t i o n su i t h i n C h i n a c o u l db r i n g t h a l n a t i o n ' sc c o n o m i cm i r a c l et o a D r e m a t u r cc n d .

\ou is the ket time \\'emust act to stabilizcfood pricesbcforcits too latc l.i:SItrR R. BRO\\rN 1995erecutiredircctorol lhc \\'orldrratch InstitLrtc hllp: ri rr rr .crtrr.rglrzinc.conl r icri ".)1.{ -fimc

i s n o t o n o u r s i d e .T h c r r o r l d h a s\ r a i t c dt o o I o n { l ( , s t a b i l i z cD o D u l i t t i o nI .h c r ] c c l i n ei n ' . ' . t t i r , , r l \uppl\pcrpcrsonandingrainou(putperpr'rsonisahca,.lrund.-rua\.Thisi!lrot!'onrelhingthatnrighl h a D D c nl.t i s h a D D e n i n gL.n f o r t u n a t e l \ .t h e s ct r e n d sa r c d c f i n i n gc h a r a c t c r i s t i cosf t h c n e \ l c r a . C h i n a ' sr r r o s D e c t i \cem e r g c n c a e s a m a s s i \ cg r a i n i m p o r t e ri s a \ r a k e - u l c a l l - - o n et h a t ' r r i l lf o r c eu s t o a d d r c s \i s s u c s\ \ c h a v c l o n g n e p l e c t e dI f. \ r e c a r c a h r ) u t h e f u t u r c .\ \ c h a \ e n o c h o i c eb u t t o l a u n c h " \ r o r l d \ r i d ec f f o r t t o s t a b i l i z co u r l i f c - s u n D o !s' \( s l c m s - - s r ' i llsi s. h c r i c sa.q u i l i ' r sa. n dl b r c s t s - - a nt ldt . ' c l r n t a t c s l s l c ' n t . L e ' a d e l s a r c j u d r . l e d b \ \ \ h e t h ctrhoer rnrot 'rs p r r ntdo t h cg r ! ' a li s s u . 'o: i - l h e i tr i n r e .I : r ' rLr . L t r l e n c r l t i , r nt-h c ( , \ c r r i d i p gi s s u ei s \ r h c t h e r\ r ( c a n r r e \ ( a b l i \ ha s t a l ) | lrj r l a t i ( r n s h i h t )c l $ r c n o u r n u m l ) t r \ a n d a s D i r a t i o nosn t h ( ' o n ch a n da l d t h e [ . r n h ' sn a t u r asl u p p o n\ ] s ( c r n \o n t h eo l h c r .U n l c s sr r a c t q u i c l l \ a n d d e c i s i \ c l \ .n c i t h c rh i s t o r \ n o r o u r ( h i l d r c n \ r i l l i u d e eu s L i n d l \ .

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Food- Highprices) Chineseinstability A *orltl food priceexplosioncould bring politicalinstabilill and a trade mcltdonn to China Bron n 96 [t'aul.

l i l - 1 057 2 - 1 ( 1 0 1l0b&n r r a t h t l p : ' r r 3 . n c x i s . c onner * r e s u l l s ' d o l i o v ' d o l i e r i . d o ? d o c l - i n k l nt rdL r c & r i s b 'l]057110013&cisb 2l 11057ll00ll&trcc\'14 cNtst t&son REt-EVANC[&slanDocNo-l&rcsultsUrlKel.2g ( L o n d o n ) l r l a l s e & t r c c W i d t h - 0 & c s1i1 8 6 2 0 & d o c N o =T1h. c G u a r d i a n F O O D s h o r t a g e sp.a r t i c u l a r l vo f s r a i n . a r e s c t t o d o u b l er r o r l d o r i c e sb \ 2 0 1 0c a u s i n qD o l i t i c a l . it) in\estors i n s t a b i l i t vi n n o o r c r c o u n t r i e sa n d c h a n g e si n t h e $ a \ i n t c r n a t i o n atlr a d e i s o r g a n i s c dC WorldrtatchInstilule.saidthc World heardlesterdar'.l-esterBrorvn,presidentofthe Washington-bascd l l a n k a n d t h e U N ' s F o o da n d A e r i c u l t u r eC ) r s a n i s a t i o(nF A O ) \ i e r e r e v i s i n gt h e i r f o r c c a s t tsh a t t h c \iorld $ould be able to feed itself in the nert centurv. Mr l-estcr'sscenariois thal&9!L9!I!3gg!-\il-l w i l l o \ e r r i d e t h c e o a l o f o D e nm a r k c t sf o r s u r D l u s s h a k el h c f o u n d a t i o n o s f $ o r l d t r a d e .P r o t e c t i o n i s m orcr lunchat th.' e\Dorts as Doliticianskeep stocksat home to keen pricesdo$n. His lhesisuas de'liVered l cal. I l i t , ,I l o t . l i n l . o n d o n . $ h c r c t h c d i n e r s $ e r c u s e d t o i l l u s t r a l c h i sI ht hccr d oe qn . r a n d cl hdeb e s m n o t p r o d u c ce ' n o u glhb o d i b r t i . p o u l t n a n dt l s ha n dh a dt h en r o n c )l o p a ) . I 1\ \ a sn o t t h a lt h c * o r l d c o L t l d p o o r .i l $ a s t h a lr i c hp e o p l ed e n r a n d e1doe a tn l o r ci l s h .n r e ' aatn de ! s s .r i h i c ha l l t o o k g r a i n1 op r o d u c e I. h c s .r l . e s t esr a i di f t h e l . sf o r i n \ e s t n r e ns lp c c i a l i s tM c i ) n i c r c r c co.r e a n i s cbd) O p p c n h c i n elrn l e r n a t i o n i\i \l a u a n t e dr o m a k cm o n c )t h e ) s h o u l di n v e s il n p r o d u c t i r ea g r i c u l l u r al al n d* i t h a g o o du a t c rs u p p l ya n d i r at rich nrealeatcrs\\as direclednol ill ( lt) rcchnologics thal nradcclllcienl uscof rrater.Mr Lestcr's.jibe lnllrsls.buralthel.lbillionpcoplcolChina.Flrenalin\riscin(hcirli\ingstandardsmeantagiapt -l l c a n i n u o r l d g r a i n c o n s u m D t i o nl \.tr L e s t e rh a d n o d o u b t st h a t C h i n a c o u l do a r . h c t r a d e s u r p l u s $ i t h t h e [ J p i t e dS t a t e sr r a se n o u { : ht o b u \ t h e 1 rh o l co f t h a t c o u n l r \ ' ' sg r a i n h a r v e s ta n d h a r d l \ l t o t i c t . ( l r a i n s u r r r l u s eosn c eu s e dt o k e c pt h e A f r i c a n r r o o ra l i v cr r e r c i n s t e a dt o b e u s c da s a n i m a lf c c d s t tl l t e neu l\ afflucnt Chincsccould eat mcat. Ihis *as rncrelrmarketforc!'s- that so far had scrredlhe rrr:rld r r c l l i n n r a t c h i nsgu p p l lt o d c m a n dT. h e \ \ ' o r l d B a p k a n d F A O h a d r e l i e do n c c o n o m i s ttso p r c d i c tt l t a t r r o r l d f n o d s u o p l vu o u l d c o n ( i n u eo n t h e u n t a r d t r e n d s e e nf r o m l h e 1 9 5 0 su n t i l 1 9 9 0 .S i t t c cl h e n i l h a d s t o p D e dq r o $ i n g .T h e l 7 u o r l d f i s h i n gz o n e sr c r e t u l l l u t i l i s e dt .h c t r o r l d ' sf a n n i n gl a n dc o u l d p r o d L r cl iet t i cn o r e . l c ' n i l i s e u r : e \ \ a sa l o p l i n r u nlrc r c l s .( i e n e l i c sa n d n l a n l b r e e d i n gn r o m i s e dn o n c r ' d r a m a t i ci n c r e a s c isn \ i e l d s .l \ 1 a n \a r c a sr r c r er u n n i n g o u t o f \ i a t c r f o r i r r i q a t i o n .a q u i f e r s\ l e r e b c i r r t d e D l c l c di.\ l r L e s t e rp o i n t e do u ( l h a t f a r m e r si n t h c B c i i i n { .a: r e a h a d b c c nb a n n c df r o n r i r r i q a t i n g c r o p sb c c a u s e( h e c i t t n e e d e dt h e r r a t e r m o r c a n d C h i n a c o u l da f f o r d t o i m D o r tt h e f o o d i n s t c a d T h c t . \ c r l c u l a t e st h a l 1 . 2b i l l i o no f t h e \ r o r l d ' st r o o r c spt o D u l a t i o no u t s i d eC h i n a h a r e a n i n c o m eo f S I a d a\ . o f $ h i c h ? 0 c c n t sg o e so n f o o d .I f f o o d s h o r t a g e cs a u s e dD r i c c st o d o u b l ci t \ r o u l d b r i n g s e r i o u s n o l i t i c a li n s t a b i l i t \i n c o u n t r i e st h a t c o u l dn o t a f f o r d t o b u \ i n t o t h e \ r o r l d m a r k c t .O n eb r i g h ts p o ti n \lr Leslcr'ssloonr) outlook\ras Europe.ufierepopLrlation andgrainproductionarc in balance.\\ c coulLl b r i n ga l l a g r i c u l t u r al al n db a c ki n t of u l i p r o d u c t i oann dp r o l r tf i o m s c l l i n gg r a i no n t o a n i n l l a l e d\ \ o r l d m a r k c tT . h e s i l v c rl i n i n gi n t h eg l o o m .s n e u u a l o f m a k i n ! :m o n e !o u t o f f o o d s h o r t a g c *sa. s s o o nr u b b e d oul. Mr Lcstersugcested that thc \'er\' in\ cstmentsin Asia that had createdthe affluence.and hclDedihe stock narket boom. were in ieopard\ becauseofthe buving po\lcr thcv had created,InstabilitYcaused b\ $orld food shortages$ould surel\ makc the markcts crash, llis mcssage: Sell stocksand bu1'land. I he factsThere t o p u l a l i o no f t h e U n i t e dS t a t e .A n e s t i m a t eodn en i l l i o n f a c t o r i crsi i l l b e b u i l t r o u g h l \ t w i c et h e p r e s e n p in (lhina in the next 20 lears on land nou usedto groq rice and grainChinaintcndsto doublcthc'annual consumplionofeggs per headfrom 10010200 b1 2000.This neans feedingan extra i.l billion hens.Thal lakcsmorc grainper )ear thanAustra)iaproduces.

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F o o d- H i g h p r i c e s ) i n s t a b i l i t y lligh food priccsbccauseof biofuelsarc tht'causinginstabilir.rin asia Sircus 08 lMall,;\. dircctoo a le d i c a \l / e r i t a sA s s o c i a t i o Jnu. n e2 0 ' r ' . r l l h e I n l c r n a t i o nM I r l l p : $ $ u . n a t r : i t l r e \s\. c o m0 l l - l T l . h t n r l J S o a r i n ef o o d r ) r i c c sa r c a l r e a d r n u s h i n gm i l l i o n so f n e o p l ci n A s i a b a c k i n t o o o r c r t r a n d t h i s i s s t i m u l a t i n Ii o c i a l u n r c s ta n d g o v e r n m c nitn s t a b i l i t \ .T h e s l o b a lf o o d s h o r t a e ca n d s o a r i n l lc o s to f staplefoods is a "silent tsunami". the Lr.N.World Food l)rogramsaidlastmonth.belbrea lbod summit hostedb) British Primel\'linistcrCordonBro$n to discussthc grouing crisis.{g_4!{ j!94g1!!!-4qi!l!91 are nori not able to bu\ food, saidWFP e\ecuti\e DcoDlc.prcr iouslv not requirine food assistance. directorJosett-Shccranin a statenrcnl bclorethe nleetinl. l=andusedlo pro\r biofuel feedstockis land not a r a i l a b l ei r r g r o v rf o o d .

riots Ilising food priccsarc the causcof instabilig rnd havc triggeredlargc-scale 'I'he Statesman08 lAprilIi. l0(lS ,\sian VoiceslerisI l . a \ l l h L r f s d a(\A p r i l l 0 ) . J o l l nH o l t r c s L . l n i t e dN a t i o n su n d e r s c c r r l agnc n ! ' f allb r h L r n r a n i t a r ai i ltlnh i r ss. r i r i r i s i n ef o o d D r i c c sc o u l dc a u s c\ r o r l d \ r i d et u r m o i l a n d q l o b a lD o l i l i c ailn s t i | b i l i l \ , ' [ h ef o o d p r o b l c r l h a ! c a u s c dl r i d c l D r c a da n g e ro v e r r i s i n gf o o d n r i c c sl h a ( s o a r l c d d a \ s a f d c a d l \ o r o t c s t sr n d l o o l i | l ! i n sor)e counlries.Also lastueck. \\'rrrldBanLpresidentRQbenZoellicl rranrcd!!3.1!_441j915_y119;y[!$ o f s o c i a lu n r c s t b c c a u s co f t h c r i s i n gp r i c eo f f o o d -F o o dD r i c ci n c r e a l o so f m o r et h a n . 1 0D c r c e n tt h . n n d l \ o r \ C o a s 1I.r l D a s t\ c a r h a \ c h c l D c dt r i q q c r r i o t s a n d n r o l c s t si n c { ) u n t r i c lsi k r E q \ D t ,U z b e k i s t a a p!'opleare irebruitn.riols ovcr food price insrcases in Canreroonleli .10pcoplcdead.In thc Philippines. l i n i n ! u p u r d c rl h c s c a r i n g s u nl ( ) h L r \u p t o t h r e ek i l o qo l \ F A r i c eu h i c h i s a b o u t . , l 0 - 5p0e r c c n lc h e a p c r t h u nl h c 'c o n r n r r ' r c i a l ' \ a r i eTl \h.f t { ] a r c dg l o b a lf o o d c r i s i sh a sb c c o n r e a p a i n f u lr c a l i t \ . f h s n r o - \ 1 palp.rirlcl.pcct rrl'thclirotleliri: i: th! ihorlag( rnJ rc:liting high rrrrrl.lfiic!'s oi ricc. lhc staplcli)o,j ti)l i r t ) o Ltilll r c ch i l l i o r p r e o p l e0' .r a p p ( r r i n r a l t hh a l l o l t l ) f \ \ o r l d ' sp o p u l . r r i ( ) I l .

I S is altenrptingto allcviatcfood priccsto stop the cnsuingglobalinstabilitl l l t u t r : r s 0 8 l , \ f r i l 1 1 .h l t D \ \ \ \ \ \ . r c u l ! ' r s . c oal n i c l cl a t e s r ( r i s iisi t r s \ 1 7 { J J 9 5 l \ \ A \ l l l \ ( l l O N . . , \ l l i i I ? t R r : u t c r) ,-ql h c f rn i t e dS i a t c rh o p e st o a nn o un c r f r c i h s t o p \i n t h c c o n ri n g r r e c k st 0 h c l n a l l c r i a t ef o o d s h o r t a g c as r o u n d t h r 1 l l o b eI.. 1 . SS. e c r e r a ro_l rS t u t eC o n J u l c r ' z zl lai c c s , r i dr r r I ltursdar.[{icc noledthat L].S.l)re:identGeorgc\\'. Ilush earlierlhis rict\ olrlcrcdthc relcascot 5100 r r t l i l i o ni t t L . S e n r e r g e n cl b) o d a i dt n h c l pd e r c l o p i n gc o u n l r i eisn A t i i c r a n de l s e u l e r cS . h cs a i dt h i sr r i i s rrt lop ofan crtra Sl50 rrillion the Bushadministralion rcquc\tcdlionr Congressfor enrergenc_r fcrod n s s i s t a n cl hci : \ e a r . l n r e c c n )t e a r s .t h c U n i l c dS t a l e sh a sp r o v i d c dn r o r ct h a nh a l f o l a i l f o o da i L *l o r l d u i d e . ' l i i c e s a i d . l n t h e\ \ e e k sa h e a d$. c h o p e1 0a n n o u n car n B v e nn r o r c- - l r ) a n n o u n c cf u r t h e r s t c p st o h e l ! casclhe burden of rising food Dricelion the rrorld's neediestDet)Dle."Rice said at a nerrsconferenc(. "The ranid rise in global food nriccs is an urgent concern," shc said. "Rising food nricesarc a sourcc o f s o c i a li n s t a b i l i t r 'a, s r v ca r c s e c i n gi n a n u m b e ro f p l a c e s a , r o u n dt h eg l o b e . "

llioiircls Aii' e3 t:l

cNr)l2kS-s Re-!ents

nations Food- Highpriceshurtdeveloping countrics lf lbod priceskeeprising,it uill kill off the populationsof -3-1 SPIE(;EL International.April10.2008 i ns ki \ r ( )l i , r h lp o r c n r i n d o \ c l o p i n gc o u n t r i e sc .\ l i m a t c d" l h a t Z o r ' l l i c lsi a i dt h s W o r l d B a n k .r r h o s c ' r ' n at a c f t h e a c u t ch i k c i t l f o o d 3 3 c o u n t r i c sa r o u n c tl h e r l o r l d f a c cr r o t c n t i r cl o n f l i c ta n d s o c i a lu n r c s th c c a u 5 o p r i c e s . " t h r e e e u a r t c r { s ) { c o n s u n r esrD c n d i n g , andenergv I n c o u n t r i c s\ r h e r cf o o d m a d c u n h a l f t o i s n o f o r s u r \ i \ , a 1 . h " c s a i d . "there margin F o o dp r i c e sa l s ol e a dt o s e tb a c k si n d c r e l o p m e n t .

SPIEGEL International,April10.200t1 Ilritish I'rimc lUinistcr ( jordon Bro$n alsourscd $ orld lcaders to inlc'r\cnr!]llqgLlglLD&:09!L scarcit\. In a lelterrcleasedThurrdal.lrc ririte' aboutthe urgcnlnc!'dto addrcssri:ing litod prir(\ and (jrc i n r p a cot f h i o f u c lp r o d u c t i oonn r { r i c u l i u r c ". R i s i n gf o o d D r i c e st h r c a t c n( o r ( , l l b a c k D r o q r c \ rr r c h a \ e n r a d ei n r c c c n t\ c a r s o n d e \ e l o D r n c n t .l "] r o r i nr i r o t e ." F o r t h c f i r s t l i m c i n d e c a d c st .h e n u n r h e ro f D c o n l rf a c i n gh u n q e ri s g r o u i n g . "

Bi o t u e lA s IT 9,t 22)

CNI)I]I8.9 Reger)ls

Food- Highpriceskillingeconand )poverty Rising food cost are killing cconomicgrox th and creatingu ide sprcad povert)' allAfrica.coml(r .lunc2008"Africa:RisingFoodI)rices\\'ill Kill ('hildren,Sars I)ancl" http:,/1al Iafrica.corn,'storics/20080{r ] 60229.htrnl 'I

t r ( r \ ! l hr a l ei n l ( X 1 7l.) c l t c fc c o n o r n i c h c r c p o r ts u m m a r i z egsa i n si n A l r i c ai n r e c e n)te a r s :a 6 . 6 p c r c c nS nranagenrent. morc lixed directin!estnent.more diversillcdproductionanda dcclinein thc porerl; rltc. Ilut i t s a \ st h e e c o n o m i eosf a b o u t 2 0 c o u n t r i e si.n n h i c h a t h i r d o f A f r i c a n s l i r c , h a r e q r o u n b r o n h 2 . 2 p e r c e n la \ c a r i n t h e l a s td e c a d ea. n d t h e c o n t i n c n li s n o t o n c o u r s et o a c h i e \ ct h e i \ l i l l c n n i u m D e t e l o o m e nG t o a l o t h a h i n e D o r c r t ) b \ 2 0 1 5 ." O p t o Do f . . ,t h i s 'r i s i n ef o o d n r i c c sa r c a f f e c l i n t I c n so f m i l l i o n so f A f r i c a n s .e s D e c i a l ltvh o s el i r i n g i n u r b a n a r e a s a , n d a r e t h r c a t c n i n gt o \ r i n c o u t e a i n sm a d c o \ c r t h e l a s ts e \ . e r adl e c a d e s".T h e f o o dc r i s i si s a m a i o r s e t b a c kl r h i c h i s c r c a t i n ga m a i o r h u m a n i t a r i a ne m e r s e n c rI.1a l s or e q u i r easn i m m e d i a taen dt h o u g h t l urlc s p o n soen t h eb e s ts l r a l e g ) . .i n . orderto enablerural populationsto rakeadvantage ofrhe nerl levcl ofagriculturalpricesand incrcasefood "Africancounlricsare e\pscledto be an)onglhc \\ors1hit b} clinate chaDqr'prL)duclion. lhe rspon add\. i i r cp r r . r i c c t ei m r jn a eot i g l o b a \l \ a r n i n g$ i l i c a u r c"' u n p r e c c d c n t cldo"i 5 c 5i n a g r i c r i l i u r p u rl o d u c t i o n . '!.lu)in!. n r i l l i o no s l ' i n r p o r c r i : l r ccdn r i r o n t r e n t a l h u ! : es e t b a c kisn t h c s t r u g g l ac v a i n spt o rc n r a n dc r e a t i n g r e l i r s c c sI I r i sr r i l l o n l r e r a c e r b a ttel t eo n g o i n gt r c n do i r i s i n gl b o dp r i c e s . . . "

['S lbod e\ports aro falling duc to rising food costs \ l ! \ e r ) . o rJ a c o b s J u n gl q . 2 0 { ) [ l t l ] c A s \ ( ) u i i l l cPdr c r s C o r n d r o p s a s h i , r h p r i c e s D r r r r r p l d c n r a n d \ \ o l r i e r " h l t l r \ \ \ \ \ \ . * a : h i n i . t t o n p o s t . c$opn- ti l r n c L r n t c n l ' a n r cl (l)c0 E( 1 6l 9 A t { l 0 0 E f ) ( ) l 9 0 l l i 9 - 1 . h l r n l ( o r n r r r i c c sa r l D r o a c h cadn u n D r c c c d e n t cSd8 a b u s h e o l n \ \ | j d n r \ d a \ . n e a r l \ d o u b l cc o n r D a r c dt d I \ e a r a g o .S o \ b e a n sa r c a l s ot r a d i n gn e a r a l l - t i m ch i g h s .T h c D r i c cs D i k ea D D c a r tso h a \ c s l o r i e d d c n l r . n df o r l . r . Sc. o r n a n d s o \ b c a n sU . . S .c o r n c \ n { ) r t sf e l l t o 3 . 1 3 . 0 0n0e t r i c t o p sb ! ' t r l e c n . l u n e6 - l l . a - 1 5D C r c e ndt r o D c o n r l r r c dr r i t ht h c ' p r l ' r i o Lrrrse c l .t h c L S . [ ) e p l r l n ) ! ' Io] ll A g r i c u l t L rsr cr i d l h u r : d r , r . \(r\l1(,r1 c \ p o r ( s l i l l - 1 , ' - n c r c c n t ( r \ u r t h c r i i n r c p c r i ol Jl 1i o. 1 0 0D r c tLr ! i \ , n \

Risingl'oodpricesare disproportionatehaffcctingthc po()rrcversingpoverll progr(ss \ \ ' o r k l l l a n k 2 0 0 8 p l c p a r c db i P R I : \ ' 1A. I i l ) a n d t ) L ( . d r a u i n ! l i o n rl o r l r c l o s st h r -B a n k . h l l P r \ r l e r ( ' \ o u r c e s . * o r l d b a n k\.Lo\r\g' S R c s o u r c er si s i n r : l i x r d p r i c bc lsr c L s | 0 u n J n r r, tj p ef0tj.pJl' Thc tr,'rnrs-of-lrade effectsof thcschiqher food Dlict'shar c gcnerallr becn mitigalcd hr risine nort-fi,od c o n l n r o d i t \r r r i c e sa. l t h o u q ht h e s ea Y c r a g c m s a r k s i g n i l i c a n bt i r l a n c co f r r a \ m e n t si n l D : r c tfso r c c r t a i n c o u n t r i c sW . h c n a l l D r i m a r \ c o m m o d i t \D r i c ec h i l n t e sa r e c o n s i d e r e dt h, e t e r m s - o f - t r a d iem D a c t \ l ) c c o m cl a r g ea n d D o s i t i v e f o r r e s o u r c er i c h c o u n t r i e sa s c ) i D o r t o s ore s f o i l a n d o t h c r c o m m o d i t i em thnn co8lDensale for higher food Driccs.Counlriesrr ith ihe Iargcstnesati\ctcnns-o1-tradc in'rpactinclude I c s o l h ( rI .- r i t r e aa n dC a m b i aT. h c d i s t r i b u l i o n ianl r p a c trsr fr i s i n l f 0 o dp r i c e sc a nb r s r ' r i o uesr e n i n c 0 r r r l r i e : \\ hercthc lralancc()f pa)nlentshasnot Lleenadrcrscll al1cctcd.\\'hilc sonrehouseholds li ont llirlrcr bc'ne'Jlt pricc:.othcrsarc hun by them.dependingon uhethertltel are nct producersor consunlcfsofthe lirod staple and lhe c\tcnt to \\ltich nagesad.justto highcrlbod price jntlalion.In generalpoor peoplc.cspcciallyin urbanarcas.suflcrduc to risingfood prices.Usinga sampleol'houscholddatalbr cighr ltr$ inconre counlries.a rccenlpaper5analrzesth< impactsofhigher pricesofkel staplefoodson povcd). taking inl() accountdirect impactsfrom chaneesin commodit5prices.and impactsthroughchangesin uaqe rates1-or u n s k i l l c dl a b o r .l h c r e s u l t ss h o $ t h a t . i n s i x o f t h e e i g h tc o u n t r i e sc o n s i d e r e dn.r i c € i n c r e a s efso r s t r D l e lbods nere associatedwith a significantrise in povertv. Avcraginq acrossthcseeight countries.the increasein food prices betneen2005 and 2007 is estimatcdto ha\€ incrcascdDoyert\ b\'3 Dcrcentage pi4!. A rccenlassessment in Indonesiashowsthatover three-fourths ofthe poor are net ricc buyers.and an increrse i n t h er e l a l i r cr i c ep r i c eb r l 0 p e r c e n t u i J rl e s u l ti n a n a d d i t i o n at rl v om i l l i o np o o rp e o p l c( o r l o . o l lhe f'opulation).Analrsisusingan allenrativeprice inder $eightedaccording1()lhr consuDlplion pall!'rns01' tlrepoor in L.atinAnlericasuggests that in mostcountries()[rhe reqion.the effectireinllationratc I'ircedb\ thc poor is hiaherthanthe official rateb\'3 percentagc poinls.

I l i o l u c l sA l l ' 95 lll

C NI ) l l l i 8 - 9 RcLents

MUMIA Food- PovertyimpacUFREE Povcrtl causesa structuralviolencethat out$'cighsnuclcart'ar ,r.r'nrQurerl)cadl) \'()lcn.chrnrl) AbU-Jamal 98 t\1umia. rst.9 19.http' \\\ !\ llashpoin! actrr W e l i r e .c q u a l l i\ n t n r c r s c d . a n d t o a d c c p e r d e g r c e . i n a n a t i o n t h a t c o n d o n c s a n d i g n o r c s r r i d e - r a n g i n s " s t r u c t u r a l ' \ i o l e n c eo. f a k i n dt h a td e s t r o ) h s u m a nl i l i \ \ ' i t ha b r c a t h l a k i nr gu t h l c s s n e sl :so. r t r l c r M a s s a c h u s ept trsi s o no f l i c i a la n d$ r i t e r .D r . J a m e sG i l l i g a no b s e r r e s8:1 " s t r u c t u r ar ilo l e ' n c cI" n l ! ' a nl h t increasedratc'strfdealhand disabilit)sulfcrcdb} lhosr'$ho occupythe botlontrungsol socict).as conlr'asred b} thosr $ho are abovelhcm.Thosee\ccssdealhs(or at leasta demonstrabl)largcproporli(.nolthc'nr) a re a fulctjon of thc classstructurs:andlhar srruclurcis itselfa p1glgglqf sociellJscolleclir c huntan -fhesc a r cn o l a c l so l C r d . I i r n ' l c h o i c c \ .c o n r c r n i n ph o $ t o d i s t r i b u t et h ec o l l c c t i r eu e a l l h 0 1 ' t h es o c i e t ) . c o n r r a s l i n"ls l r u c l u r a \l "\ i l h " b e h a v i o r ar ilo l e n c c "b y r r h i c hI n r e a nt h L ' n o n - n a l u rdacla t h sa n d i n . i L r r itghsa l lo r u r ce i i u s c rbl r s p c c i l i cb c h l r i o r a la c t i r ) nosf i n d i \ i d u a l sa g a i n sirn d i r i d u a l ss.u c ha st h ed c l l ! ) s\ ! e a t l r i b u l e l r , r n r i c i d 'eu.i c i d c . : o l d i c r isn u a r l ' a r ec.a p i t apl u n i s h n t e natn. ds o o n . - - ( G i l l i g a nJ.. .M D . \ ' i o l e n c c : R c l l c c t i o nO : l l r N a t i o n aE l p i d c n i c( ' ' - e uY o r k : V i n t i i g e 1. 9 9 6 ) .l 9 l . ) T h i s f o r m o f r i o l c n c c .n o t c o r c r c d p|crtccted lr\ .llr\ ol lhc ntajoritarian. rncdiar!1i!I!1i!!g to usilllbccituse ()l it\ ruling-class corporate. r r r r r s i b i L rirlrI. r h e ! l [ ! j ! ! i ! I g ! ! . I l o * d a n g e r o Li rssi t - - r c a l l r ' . ' C ; i l l i qnaont c s l:t l r c r - r l i f t c c r rt c . r r ' :o. r tl h c . r rc f t r g ca. r m a n r D e o n l ed i e b c c a u s co f r c l a t i re n o r c r t r a s r ro u l d b c k i l l c d i n a n u c l c a rn d r t l ] i l tr l L r \ r ! l l l l t l r i l l i o rd r a l h s a : n d e \ c r \ s i n g l c\ e a r . l ] r o t o t h r c c t i m e sa s m a n \ r , e o D l dc i c f r o n l D o \ c r t \ l h r o u g h o u tt h c \ r o r l d a s \ \ e r e k i l l c d h \ t h c N a z ig c n ( r c i d or l t h c . l c \ \ so r c r a s i r - r c a rp c t i r r L l .h i s i s r r on tltc e l l e . i .t h u! q u i \ a l e n to l ' a n o n g o i n g L. r n e n d i nign.1 ' a cat c c e l c | a t i ntgh.e r m o n u c l c a$r r r . o r l ] e n o c i d e \ \ c a k a n d D { ) o rc \ e n r c a r o l ' c r e T rd ! ' c t d et.h r o u g h ( ) rt h t er r o r l d .

I l i o l i r c l sA l l ' q6 Il

C N D I2 K 8 . 9 Regenls

Food- PakistanProlifimPact1/2 Risingfood priccsare causingpoliticalinstabili[ $'ithin Pakistan .lason(iale April 33 200t1"Pakistan'sl;ood Aflordabilitl Threatens77 NIillion" I I I 0,1-TTrnillion-tllrcatellcdh1tp:/'nrr.* .t1elence.pkllbrums/current-c\,ents-social-issucsi pukistans-1irod-al I -im-ton-uhcat.htrnl lbrdabilitl-pakistan-ma)'-importAlmost half the DoDulationof Pakistarl.the $orld's sevent h-most-Do Du lous nation. facesqjlficu,(\ eaining accessto affordablc food becauscof thc soarirg cost of {creals.a World Food Prograntofficial slid. lhe Ronrc-based UnitedNationsagencl increasedits cstimatcofthc nunrberofso-calledltrod insccure Pakistan 77 PaulRislcl saidin a tclcphoneintervic$ liont in 1o nillion lionr 60 million. spokesnran fcoplc lirod priceslunrped2l percentin March iiont a Sear thr Pakistanicapilal.lslanrabad. lcsterda;.l)akistan's earlier.the Iaslcsrpacain at icastsir rears.rs $aler arailabilil) declin('dand iarnrcrsplanledJ!'\rcrcrop\. shrinkine h a r \ e s l sl .h e S o u t l ,l A s i a D a t i o nn r a yn e e dt o i m p r r n\ \ h e a if o r a s c c o n dl e a r i f l h c c u n e n lh a r r e s t fallsshofl ot'domesticderrand. Pakistanhas reacheda tipping Doint."Risleysaid. lt is no longcran erponcr oftbod. but falhcran imponer."Pakistanis affectedb\ $orld food oricesthat ha\c surged h\ a b o u t8 3 o e r c e n ti n t h c D a s (t h r e c \ c a r s . D r o \ o k i n gr i o l s i n D o o rn g t i o n sa n d I h r c a l c n i n gt { }s c l b : t c L efforts to rcdqce global nor crt\. a..,rrdrns r{'rh( l].1||lcdibl..]i|,ndpUlsesdreirlarccordaccord|l].!rl(rlar.ed(.)r {Ji]\\!l.u.c,lbJrl)))',li.c'hl\c.]llh(Jl6n.r.!nl'|ne|lhcntlrll)l.1h.\eil|andr|e!j\]6p!I.cnl0](jt.f(\l|\1hnjl[l\i!ll.1ll]

1 l , , u, ,rrf l . . P a k i s t a ni s o n c ( ) f . 1 0c o u n t r i c sn. r o s ( l \i n A f r i c a a n d A s i a .i d c n t i l i c db \ t h c \ \ ' f P r s b r i n g r t ri\k oI food insecurilr bccauseof riliing food Driccs-Rislcl suid. ln eich oi thcsccounli!'s.\{c i]re e r p c c i l l l rc o r c e n r c d r h a ta l a c k o f a c c e s st o a f f o r d a b l cf o o d c o u l dl e a dt o p o l i t i c a li n s t a b i l i n a n d s o c i r t l d i s r u r r t i o nh. c s r r i dT. h er u r a pl u ) r r r i l ls u t l i ' r h u n g c r s i l e n t l r . \ \ h i l e t h e u | b a n p o o | $ i l l b c r r \ ) r c I f o n c l ( l r r o t i n l .I l i s l c r s a i d . l h i : i s a n . ' r p l c s s i r rt n h l l h J \ l \ b c r n h c a r di r td c i a d c sb e c a u srcc c e ncl c o n o l r i c r h r s t h . c s p c c i a l liri r , \ s i r . h a sh c l p c dp o o rp o p r r l a t i r )irr))sl r b a r 'ar n dr u f 3 l\ r ' t l i r g s .h' c s a i d . \ o \ \ \ \ c ' r c h t r i r r r i n gl o \ e c l f d u r n l o l h . r s cr e ' n c r i l i c a cl h o i ( t " t l r . i lt r | cl i r r c c Loln l a n r i l i e $s h e n l i r r r di s n o t a c c c 5 5 i b i . . $lrcn l'oodis n01llllofdablc."

I nstablePakistanincreases the risk of proliferation ' Kristinl{obcrts(18rr-or2007I1:i-1:09(j\1 I 'l'akrstan politiralilsraLrilil\r.iis!-s nLre lr:lr fisk hilp: \\ \\ \\ .alcrlnet.org,'thcnc\\ .htnr s,'ncrr sdcsL'N()ul lJ(rl91 I ) c n l r - ' r oonl l i c i a l ss a r P a k i s t asnn u c l e aar r s e n ai ls \ ! , c u r ei n n r i l i t a r \h a n d sb. L rst o r n cI I . S .l a t n r a l c r sa n , l e \ p c r t s\ r a r o t h a t n u c l c a rm a t c r i a la n d d c s i e n sc o u l dl e a ko u t i f D o l i t i r a li n s t a b i l i t \D c r s i s t sP. a l r \ l i r L r ' . prcsidenl.(lcn. Perrr:zlvlusharraf. hasconccr]trilted controlorcr thc enlirenuclearprogranr.ilut a declipc in h i s s u D D o r1t li t h i n t h e m i l i t a r \ a n r i dt h e c u r r e n t p o i i t i c a cl r i 5 i sr a i s c sa r i s L ( h a t c o ' l l r o l o v c r t h c \i caoonscould rr€aken.That could oDenthe door lo thcft or salc of vreaDons malcrial lo e\trcmist sonrc experls sa). Some ueapons crperts and U.S. still suspect Pakislan's militaq oi lt lcasl olllcials -qr(rups. kno\\in!: aboulthe srnugglingactivitiesof I)akislan's A.Q. Khannetworkthat s(,ld\\'eapon5 technolog)to l r a n .\ o n h K o r e aa n dl - i b v a ". T h i s i s a c o u n t r \ t h a t ' s l e a k e dn u c l e a r$ e a o o n sd e s i g n sc. e n t r i f u e c s .\"a i d I).i'"id ,\lbright.presidentofthe Institutelor Sciencaand IntemalionalSecuriry.".frvoof its scientists tal\ed l o { O s a r n ob)i n l . a d e na b o u lh o $ t o m a k en u c l e aur c a p o n si n 2 0 0 1. " " l t ' s a s v s t c mt h a t ' sl e a k e dv c r v danqerousinformation." he said. "You havc to \orry about the inteqritv of thc slstem in a oeriod of u'as\\orricd aboutthe securit)of' ero*ing instability."A seniorU.S.generalthis weeksaidthc Pcntagon Pakistarnuclcarweaponsafter N'lushanaf promptingproleslsand declareda slateofcn)ergencyou Saturday'. arrests.Ll.S.laurnakers. houercr. cxprcssed more uncenainryirboutthe securil)ofthe ueapons.Rep.Ellen Iauschcr.a Californial)cmoctalon a congressional the U.S. militar). saidlhc cornnrittee that oversces LlnitedStateslackcdfull knorvledgc ofPakistan'sueapons."\\'e needa lol mrrrer isibilif! on rrhal'sgoinl on in Pakistan.Who docshavethat footbalil'\\'hois next in line?."shesaidaboutPakislan's nuclear\\eapons. " l ' r c l c ' a r n el dh a l $ e d o n ' t h a v ea s s t r o n ga h a n d l eo n i t . " s a i d l a u s c h c ru. h o h a sa c c e stso s o n r el J . S . intelliqence as a menrberofthc Ilouseof Represenl . Asked ifshe kncu ativesAmrcd ServicesCornmiftee spccificdetailscfPakistan'sueapons,includingtheir lr.rcation andthe chainofcornmando\cr lhose rteapons.shesaid."l dont kno$, and l've askedthc questiona coupleofdiffer€nt wals." Sen.JosephBidcn ol-Dclarvarc. a Democraticpresidential hopsfuJand chajrrnanofthe SenaleForeignRelationsComnritlee. siridPakistan$as at real risk of becominsa failed state.

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Food - Pakistanprolif impact 2/2 I'roliferationcausesn uclearn'ar LlT(;Ol-l'lN 2K2 IViclorA.. Dcputl'I)irectoro1'1he Strateg) . l:orccs.andl{esources l)ivrston rl1'theIrrstilulclbr Delcnse.Analrsis. Sunival."l)roliferation. N'lissilc l)el'cncc and Anrr-rican Anrbitions". pgs.ll7-901 I n s u n r r. v i d e s D r e ardr r o l i f t ' r a t i oins l i k c l r t o l e a dt o a n o c c a s i o n aslh r i o t - o uut i t h n u c l e a r* c a r r o n s a . nd t h a ls u c hs h o o t - o u t $ s i l l h a r e a s u b s t a n t i aDl r o b a b i l i l ro f c s c a l a l i r l g l o l h r m a r i m u n )d c s l r u c l i o n pgss!!!gn'ith thc wcaponsal hand.tlnlcssnuclearprolillratioo is stopped.we arc headedtol}ard r \rorld t h a t $ i l l m i r r o r t h e A m c r i c a nW i l d W e s t 0 1 ' 1 l llca t e1 8 0 0 sU r o s t .i 1 ' n oat l l . n a l i o n s\ r ea r i n gn u c l e a r . ' i 1 lm 'sir-shootcrs'on t h e i rh i p s .l h eu ' o r l dn r a re v t n b e a n r ( r r sp o l i l cp l a c et h a ni t i s t o d a r .b u t c r c ' r yo n c ci n a N h i l ! ' $ e \ r i l l a l l g a t h e ro n a h i l l t o b u r Y t h e b o d i c so f d r a d c i t i c so r ( \ e n \ r h o l c n a t i o n s .

llioluels Aff 98',222

cNDr2k8-9 Rcgenls

Food- Ethanolpolicycausesstarvation l-lScthanolsubsidicscauscstan alion. Importing sugarcthanolfrom Brazil rr ould solve fuel problemsand opcn a nen markct l l O O m b c r g h t l p : ' , r v u * . c i t y n r a \ o r s . 1n- ( \, \t s) ]n ) ( ' ( r o n e r \a\ l l r t r i c J s . h t n l l N e ' r rY o r k C i l \ 3 0 M a l 2 0 0 8 : M i c h a c B Ne* York Citt Maror MichacB l loombcrg d c s c r i b e dA m e r i c a ' sD o l i c i eosf s u b s i d i s i r |c{ :o r n e t h n o l $ h i l c t a r i n e \ u p a r c t h a n o l .i n t p o r t e df r o n r B r a z i l ,a s h a m D e r i n pt h e c f f o r t l o c o m b a lc l i m a t t c h a n g e s u m n i tt h a lt h e f o o d a n d c a u s i n ss t a r \ a t i o na r o u n dt h e w o r l d . T h en r a l o rt o l dt h c W o r l dS c i c n c e shortagesand riots that have wracked the world in rccentmonths.frornthe Philippinesto Egyptlo Ilaili. h a d s t a r k l \ d r a m a t i z e dt h e m o r a l b a n k r u o t c vi n h e r e n t[ J Sg o y c r n m c n f ' cs o n t i n u e ds u b s i d i e fso r t h e p r o d u c t i o no f c o r n e l h a n o l .' R i g h tn o u . h o r dt o b e l i e v cl h o u r hi t n a 5 b e .t b eL I Si s t a x i n gs u g a r - b a s c d ccntsper gallon- cven though ethanolar 54 centspcr gallonand is subsidizing corn basedethanqlat .1-5 sugar-based ethanolis cheaperand producingit rencrateslesscarbondioxidc."Malor Bloombergexplaincd. I l c d r ' s c r i b ctdh es i t u a t i o a n s\ p c c i a li n t e r e s l p o l i t i c s . p l a i n a n d s i r r p l c . ' l : o r ; c a r s . p o l i t i c i a n s h a v c h a i l e d f u t ' le t . l j c i e n c or .r ol requiring c o r nc l h a n oal \ l h e a n s \ \ L l' o r c l j D r a tcch a n - g lct .\ \ a sa l l s o s i n r p l e .l n s t e a d l u n d i r r lr n a s sl r a n : , i lu. e c o u l dh a v eo u r c a k ca n dc a t i l t o o - o r i n l h i sc a s cc o r n- a n dd r i v cc a r sr r i l h i l . a s \ \ c l l . r n d i r ' tr h ep r o c c s ds i r c n n t i l l i o n so 1t a r d o l l a r sa t c a r 1 ol ' a r r ns l a t e sl. l t eo n l yp r o b l c nur a s t h i : p t t l i c r \ ! i \ n l l . l l s e d o n s c i c n c eI.- o r l r ' a r sr.c s e a r chha sq u c ' s t i o n ct h' d0L n \ i r o n n r c n lbacl n r : f i tosl ' c o r nc t h a n oal n d l ) ( ) \ \\ \ i d c s r ) f e rpdr o d u c l i o 0n l c o r nc - t h u n rh,ar lsl u r n r col u t 1 ob e a n c n \ i r o n r r U r l aaln dc c o n o m i c a l i t | t t i l r . \01 (rrl\ doesit t.rkcso rDuchcncrg) to pfoduceth.rtit Ilas.iusla rrarginalbencfil1or.rurcarbonctris:rrrl]s. b L r il l a l s oi s d r i \ i n s u p t h ec o t l o 1 ' o n co f t h c r r o r l d ' sn 1 o siln r p o r t a nclc r c acl r o p s . M i c h a e [l ] l o o r t t b c flgo l d h i \ a L r d i ! ' n cI! h ' . e n r a r o ra l s op r a i s c dl ' l o r i d ag o re r n r r(rl' h a r l e s( r i s t :" l t i s p b e n o n c n a l liyn l e r c r t i nl!h a l l a \ l \o\ uDllr!'r - IiloridaCo\ emor (lh3rlct Crisl - thr -so\crnor of tlr.'statc'that producesnrorc surar cilDf lhiin an\ o l h c r .a n da b o u li l l f i h o 1a l l A n r e r i c a\nu g a r c a n c- r i s i t e dB r a z i l u n da d r r . r e a tlci lJi i r r si \ r r r r r i c a l' s. r i l l o n \ L l g atrl h a n o ll r o n tt h a lc o L r n t r \l l. n r a )s c c n cr o u n l c r - i n t u i t i lricr r a g o ! c n r o rl o a p p c alro u n d c r c uttr n co l l r i r \ 1 i l e ' !b i g g e \ li n d u s l r i cbsL r Il t h i n ki t r t r L r cr.e a ll e a d . r sc a ns e cl l r ! 'b i u r c I p i u t u r cl.m 0 o r l i n gs n g a r - b a s c d c l h a n o lf r o n r B r a z i l$ i l l c r e a t ca m r r k e t f o r l h a t D r ' o d u ci tn t h c l l . S . - a n d t h a t \ i i l l p r o d u c ca ! $ r ' c t n c l t n a r k e tf o r F l o r i d as u g a r c a n g c r o r r e r s a. s r r c l l .T h a t n r a h c s c n s r .f o r F l o r i d aa n d f o r A n t c r i c aa n d r f a r s i g h l n o r c s c n s et h a n t h e s t a t u so u o . "

CNI)I :KE-9 Rqgcnts

l l i o l u c ' l sA J I ' gq ll:

Food- Famine/malnourishment biggestproblemof century Famineand malnourishmenlarc goingto becomethe biggcstproblemof thc 2 |'r centun t ' a u lV a l l c l ] . l p r i l I 2 . 2 0 0 8 T h c l n d c p c n d ! ' n r U K " l h e O l h c r C l ( r b rCl r i s i s R : u s ht o B i o l i r c l si : t ) r i r i n g l . t pP r i c c ir e12008'01 1218241 of Food hnp: 'w\\ \\ .conrmondrcans.orglarch -Thc uorld s nroslpouerful financeministersand ccntralbankersare meetingin \Vashington lomorro\\':bul asthe-rptctrccuprthetnse]l'esrriththegIobalcredilcrunch.@ \rorld's DoorestpcoDle.A dramatic rise in the \aorldwidc cost of food is nrovoking riots throughout the T h i r d W o r l d n h e r c m i l l i o n sm o r e o f t h e n o r l d ' s m o s t\ u l n e r a b l ep c o p l ea r e f a c i n gs t a n a t i o n a s f o o d shortagcsero$ and cereal Driccssoar. lt lhreatenslo becomcthe biqqestcrisis of the 2l st centur\, l his rYeekcrorvds0fhungry dcmonstrators in Haiti stonredthe presidenlial Falacein the capilal.l)on-au-Prince. in protestso\er food prices.And a crisisgrippedthe Philippinesas massivcqueuesformcdto buy rice lionr qo\ernDlentslocks.There ha\e beenriot! in Niger. Se'ncgal. Canreroonand llurkina Fas()4IlLlIgltgSlSIl) l\1iruritania. I\(rn Coast.Egrpt and illorocco.Nfcrico Itashad"tonilla riots and.in Yerrrc'n. childrenharc nrarehcdto dra\\ atlentionto tl'teirhungcr The global price () \ c a r , R i c eh a \ r o c k e t e db \ 7 ' l D e rc c n t i n l h e s a m ep e r i o d .I l $ e n t u p b \ m o r r r h a n l 0 n e r c e n ti n a s i n q l t ' d a rl a s t F r i d a r - t o a n a l l - t i n r eh i g l )a s A f r i c a n a n d A s i a ni m o o r l c r sc o m n e t c df o r t h e d i m i r i s h i n gs u p n h o r i n t e r n a t i o n am l a r k c t si n a n a t t c m D t o h e a do f f t h e m l , u n l i n gs o c i a lu p r c s t . I h c I n t c r n a l i o n aR l i c e R e s c a r c hl n s t i t u t c\ r ' a r n e d\ c s t c r d a \ t h a t p r i c e sN i l l k e e De o i n gu D .T h e b u f f e r s s l o c L so f s f a n l ef o o d st h a t g o r c r n m e n t so n c ch e l da r e b e i n qs l c a d i l ,{rr h a u s t c d

cNDr:k8-9

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Food- USshouldtakeleadership addressing crisis 2{,000peopledie a dal,from malnourishmcntthe UnitedStatesnccdsto take a lcadcrship rolc in stoppingthis crisis i-csterR. Brorr n N olenrbcr3. 2006- l 0 founderol the WorldrvatchInstiluteand 1i)und!.r and presiiicntol'thc L a r r hI \ r l i c r l n s t i l u t et x p l o d i n ! lU . S .( i r a i nl ) c n l a n dl b r , \ u t o n r o l i l cF L i c lI h r c : i t t - n\ s\ r o l l . i o o d S c c u l i t la r : d P o l i t i c aSl t a b i l i n "h t t p : ' \ \ \ \ \ \ . e a r t h - p o l l c l . e y q / t l p d a t c s ' 2 0 0 6 ' t r p d a t c 6 0 . h i n r \\'hea(and corn priceshaveclirttbedb\ a third or nlorc ovcr thc pastseveralnonths.Corn and rrlclt llturcs arc bo(hlradingat l0-lcar highs.\\'ith com srocksut lhc lo\icsl l!'\cl on rccordand dcnrandsorring.corn pricesrppcar headedfor hislorichighs.\\'heatand ricc priccs\\ill Iikcll lbllou com pricc\ up\\'ardB) thc c n do l l 0 0 7 . t h e c n l e r s i n cg o n r p c t i t i obnc l $ e a nt h c 8 0 0 r r i l l i o na u t o r n o b i o l eu n e r s$ h o \ \ ' a n lto m i l i n t a m t l t e i rn t o b i l i t ra n dt h c $ o r l d s I b i l l i Q np o o r e spt e t 4 r l cu h o $ l n l s i n ) p l ,1\ 0s u r \i \ e r y i l lb e o n c L ! ) l csr l a S ! 'l .l ! t a i n p r ' 1 c .d5o c l i n r bt o a l l - t i r n h e i g h s l.b o dr i o l sa n dp o l i l i c a il n s t a b i l i ti)n l o $ c r - i n c o n rcco u n l r i c tsh a t inrpoltr.:.rain. suchas Indonesia. Niseria.Mcxico.and scoreso1(rthsrcountri(s.coulddisruptglobal ccont,riricprogrcss.This clash hetrrecnmotorists?pd pcoplcorcr lhc food suDDl.tis occurrin! \rhcn li51 m i l l i o no f t h e u o r l d ' s n e o n l ea r e c h r o n i c a l l rh u n g n a n d m a l n o u r i s h e ad n d s o m c2 . 1 . 0 0o0f i h e n t . 'l'he n r o s t l \c h i l d r e n .d i e e a c hd a \ ' . U . N . i \ l i l l e n n i u r lD l c l e l o D m e nGt o a l o f r c d u c i n gb \ h a l f t h e D r o o o r t i o no f p c o n l c s u f f c r i n gf r o n rh u n g c rb r 2 0 1 5i s n o r r f a i l i n ga s t h e n u n r b e r$ h o a r c h u n g r r cd{c\ un\rard. and it could collarrsccomoletrl\ in thc faceof the food-for-carsonslaueht.Thc atlenlnl l o s o l \ c o n e D r o b l e m { r o r i i n g t i . S .d c o e n d e n coen i n l D o r t e do i l - i s c r e a t i n ga n o t h e rf a r m o r r s c r i o u \ t ) r o b l c m . f o r l u n i i r e l r t h i s c r n b c a r o i d e d . f h c S p c r cl '..'Sn .t ao ul l o m o t i \ c 1 u ep l p l i el so u c o n r i n g f i o n r su c i h a n ocl o L r l b i l c a c h i c \ e ds. c r e r aili r n e so r c r a n dn l a l i a c t i o no 1 - t h c. .o \ 1 b . \ r a i \ i n ga u l o n t o b i llei e l t l l l c i i n c r . L a D d a r db r) l 0 p g r c e l rO t . n t h t f o o d - \ c l s u s - f u ci sl \ u e .t h e t r o r l d d e s p e r i t t e ln\ e c d s I c i t d t r l t h i D - i ls t r ? l e g \1 0d e a l\ r i t h t h e c r r l c r g i n gf o o d - f u . 'cl o n D r t i l i { ) nA . s l h c } r o r l d ' s l c a d i n gg r r i r r D r o d u c c ra n d c \ p o r t c r . i r \ \ 1 e l la s i t s l a r g c \ tD r o d u c c ro f e t h a n o l .t h c t n i t r d S t a t c si s i n t h c d r i \ c r ' s \cal.

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j43g!94. if $e conlinueto fail to addresstheseproblenrs.\,r'illput us on a coursethat $ill chanseour lifestvlesvcrv radicallv. We are runningout oftinre but we can still beginthe criticalprocessofarri\ jng at solulions.Ite Bush administrationis so inrol|ed $ith the oil industr\ that there is no chancethat lhc\ $ ill make anv attemDl to Dromote:tlternativesto Detroleumcnergv.'thercforc. i1\ull bcuplolhcincorlne I ' r c s r d c nal ' ) da n e \ \ C o r r g r c srsc l u m A m c r i c ai n a c o m p l e l e l ln e \ \ d i r c c t i o n l h e D e p l o f l i n e r g ) m u s l b e c o m ea n t a j o rl b r c e r n a r i \ n f N e d n l l n r s l r i t l i o nI h c D e \ \ I r l e s r d c nnl u ! l l h D l k d e e p l \ 3 n d a p p o l n la p e r s o n| \ r l h l h e t n o $ l e d g e a n d I n l e n s ep a \ r o n a b o u r J c \ c l o p l n ! c r l c r g \i l l t L n l a l r ! c sr., n L\ h o ! \ r 1 Ll n r l r a l ea n l a \ \ r \ e p r o S r a r na k r nl ( r l h c b l n h r r l , ' u r s p a c rr \ p l o r a t r o nf ' r ( r p r a m( r i t h c r ) 1 . ) ' s . \ ' n ( \ h ( , e r r l r \ ll h e b e s ti n i r l d si n , \ r l r c f r c at ( ) J . \ e l o p n c \ c n e r g l s o u r c e sa n de n d o u r s e r e r . a d d r c t i o n( r p e t r o l e u m

BiofuclsAff l3l/222

C N D I2 K 8 - 9 Rc-qents

Oil - Oil has peaked-transitionkeyto econ Iivcn pcoplcn'ith a vestcdinterestin oil concludethat productionhaspeakcd- unlcssn c act nou thc shockto thc economl*ill becontcpermanent. haspcake d. oil production Writer 6-lti-{}8([oir."Pickens: Monitor O'Carroll Chrisrian Sciencc '06 ion-has-peaked 8 'l 8 p ickens-oil-product ) htlp: l'caturcs.csnrrrn itor.com'environment,'200 Spcakingin a Scnarecommitteehearing.the leecndar\ Texasoilman L Boonetj4!D!.gj-dlla! l!-q44 c r u d c o i l o r o d u c t i o nh a st o D o e do u t , " l d o b e l i e v eI o u h a v cn c a k e do u t a t [ i 5 m i l l i o n b a r r e l sa d a t ConrmineeTuesday.accordingto Rcuters.-lle eloball\'." he told thc SenateEnergl andNaturalResources ''21 noledrhatrhe Ilnircd Starcsis consuming million harrelsof thc 85 million and producingabout7 of thc' 2 | . so if I cor:ldlale iust a minuteon this point.the dcnrandis about86.,1nrillionbanelsa da). and u henthe dcnand is grcatcrthantbe suppll. thc price hasto go Lrpunlil il kills demand."And $hen lllr' Pic \ p c a k r n h o u l e n e r g \ .t h e \ r ' o r l dl i s t e n sH . i s a b i l i t \ t o r c a d m a r k e t sh a sv a u l t e dh i m i n t o t h e r a n k so f peoplc. ${)rld's \rralthiest hedge fund.BP ('apital.minagesnlorethanSJ billion jn ass'jls.U9! the flis r i h c r c i s h i i n r o n c \ h i s m o u t h i s . H e c r r r e n t l v a t \ r o r k r , l a n n i n gt h e I r o r l d ' s l a r e c s lN i n d f a r D . i n DUt \ \ ' e s tT c \ a s . B ) : . a r i n ct h a to i l h a s ' p c a k e d .P i c k c n sr r e a n st h a tr i g h tn o \ \ ' t. h c $ o r l d i 5 n r o d u c i n gl h e . n d n r i c c s\ r i l l m o s to i l i t r r i l l e \ e r n r o d u c c S . o o n .p r o d u c t i o n$ i l l e n t c r i n t o a t e r m i n a ld c c l i n c a c o n t i n u et o g o u D .T h c t h c o r yo 1 - p e aoki 1$ a s 1 i r : tt l c r c l o p c di n 1 9 5 6b ) S h c l l l l c o s c i c n t i\ s1t. K r n g l l r r l ) h c r l .t { c I r r c d i c ( c d- c o r r c c t l \ t h a t t h e [ , n i t e dS t a t c s\ r o u l d D a s si t s 0 \ t n p c a k r t r 0 d u c t i { ) n b c t \ t c e n1 9 6 5a n d 1 9 7 0 .S i n c ct h e n ,U S o i l p r o d u ( t i o nh a sd r o D D e ds t e a d i l \ .l o d a r . t l t c L l n i l e dS t l l c ' illrponsatroullr|it-thirdsof its oil. a phenomenon that Pickcl]sdescribedas the grcatesllranslcrol \\callh rl] n \o1( b l h c h i s l o r fo l ' n r i i n l i n dM o s t a n a l \ s t s a g r e e t h c s l i d c d o \ r n t h c o t h e r s i d e o f t h t p c a L i l cl i n r J r a c l p e a l o jl Il l h c o \ m o o t h .I n l 0 f ) i . l h c D c p a n m e nott l : n c r g rc o n r n r i \ s i o n !a' dr c p o nt o e \ a n r i n c I lirschRcpon (PDF) nanrcdfor its leadauthor.encr-r)aciriscrIioben llirsch. putsthr problcDrin \litrk l . n n s : T h c \ r o r l d h a sn c \ c r f a c e da D r o b l e nl i l i r t h i s .\ \ i t h o u t m a s s i \ cm i t i g a t i o nn t o | et h i t na d e c a d c h c l b r ct h ! l i i c t .l h e p r o b l e m$ i l l b e D e r \ a ! i \ ea n d $ i l l n o l b c t c m D o r a r \ . I ) r c \ i o ucsn t r g \ l r o n s l l r o n s r \ \ ( ) r ' Jl o c o l l J n dc o a lt ( ro i l ) \ \ c r e- r I r ' r r d a l n dt c r r - r l ti roln a r .r un ad l t r o l u li o n a n: o i l p c a ki n gu i l l b c a b r u p a l h c r c p . r nr c c ( ) n r n r c n dla0dt o 2 0 \ e a r s o f " a c c c l c r r t c de f f o r t " t o i m D l e n r e nr tl t c r n i l l i l r f u e l s\ r o u l d l ) e n e c d c db c f o r ct h c o i l p c a kt o a v o i d" m a i o r c c o n o r r r iucr r h c a \ a 1 " .\ \ ' a i t i n g u n l i l r r o r l d o i l n r o d u c t i o n . D e r k sh c f o r ct n k i n gc r r s h r r r o q r a ma c t i o n - - s a l st h c r e p , ) 1 1@ f u e l d e f i c i tf o r o l o r c t h a n t \ t o d e c a d c s . "

Uiolirels Aff rit ltl

Cl\DI 2k8-9 Regents

Oil - Oil peak-musttransitionnow Thc impact of oil pricess on't stav hiddenfor much longer- currentconditionsarc pcrfect for global cconomicrcsiliencl to shatter. c n , lP e r f o n n a n cMc a n a g e m c n l I l - l l - 0 7 ( C a a . l - h eh i g b Duncan S e n i o rE \ c c u t i v cf o r A c c e n t u rF cinanca '. i s l sa n i c l e 2 8 5 l 8 6 3 . c c e ) ue s s s / c o l unm o i l p r i c en r a l b e g i nt o l a k ei t s t o l l h t t p :hi u si n e s si.nt r e s ol ni n ec. o .u k . l t o l ' ' bi n We hare all becn Drcttv luckv so far. Over thc past four \ears oil Driceshave soaredever higher. \ct m c t a p h o r i c a l lW l . h i l et h el u i n o i l s h o c k so f t h e \ r o r l d e c o n o m \h a s i u s t k e n t o n m o t o r i n g l i t c r a l l l ' a n d the Scventiesbroughtglobalgrouth to ajudderinghalt and plungedthe West into prolongedand painful Icccssions. thingshate beenvcrl differentthis tinrearound so far. at least. As oil priccshare risenliont a q uite-hard-to-reca ll 530 a banel as rccentl)asthe end of2003 to S50 in 200,1,560 in 2005.S70 in 2006 and. Ihe pasl ferr in recent\\'eeks.nr0relhan S90a banel. the globalccononrlhascruisedon almostregardlOss. sorldrridc'economic boonrsincethe Sevenlics. !l!-.!!i!! lears have.in fact.narkcd the strongeslsustained a n a l \ s t sn o n s o u n d i n g$ a r n i n g st h a t t h e c o s to f c r u d e \ r i l l a l m o s ti n e v i t a b l yb r e a c hS l 0 0 a b a r r e l * i t h i n d a r s .t h e o u e s t i o ni s ; c a n t h e $ o r l d ' s l u c k l a s t ?A r c r i e . f i n a l l r , r e a c h i n ga t i D D i n gp o i n l \ l h e r c the relentlessbrd nerrs from lhe blacl stuff l|ill al lrsl e\act a rcal economicloll? Worn ingl). il \trnls t hr ck e ' l i k c l \ t h a t $ e a r e .i n d c e da . n n r o a c h i n ei u s t s u c ha t h r e s h o l d .l ( iu n d c r s r \a\ nh di * c n r c Jt , ' t , ' r | r d e llr!jr! lharhi\e In\llar( I|]\.)nlh.:\dt(\'h|.|J(l|rrccorri,mlcsitscrudcpric.\c]ln1b1|lt(,lr|n|(d|!lt.Iht\\'cncanall[aslc(l|l11|lLlcl(l!lr\ .,,rrli,n lrL,'f lhc InLt\le \(\c|lllt\\\hilt!u{ln.olln5calllhc'i)i]in1.n\lt\..olcl)Irlht3|]l.lUnt|ollnccd.d 1]3.dl(j|pedl(,jl|nljJrcrc.ntol.ltslc!cllil9]irllcnga''gu,,/L||!ln]ciicanccdiLl]l\

r .J t l \ \ u l | nr g \ r..l i r n \ ( r \ i { af la c t o r s l h a t h a v c h c l D e d t h e d e \ e l o n e d n o r l d t o c s c a D e a n \ s c r i o u s c c o n o n l i c l a l l o u l f r o n rd e a r e re n e r g Yn o n f a i l t o o f f e r t h e D r o t e c t i o n t h a t t h c \ h a r e u D t o t h i s p o i n t .F i r s t .t h e d r n a n r i cb c h i n ds p i r a l l i n go i l o r i c c sh a ss h i f t c d O . \ ( ' f l h ! 'p a s t1 e u1 e a r st.h cd r i r i n g l o r c ep r o p c l l i n tgh e cosl ol crrrdcto crcr-srcolcrhighshasbL'enthe potentdenrrndfor energl creatcdb1 a rcrl r'obuslgiotral c c o n o l t \ .N o \ . h o t \e \ t s r . \ e a r d r ( d c l r r i o r a t i n q s h a r p l \ . I t i s { n l er h a ld e n r a n d lirto ' j l c L r ) l i n u e s tboc r c i n f o r c ebt l} C h i n as b u r l c c r r r n g . r p p e tl ibt e r e n e r g l .u i t h r i s i n l C h i n e s ce o n s u n r p l i oi ank i n gu p t h r c cq u a n e r so r n r o r ct r f a n r i e r l r ac r u d ep r o d u c t i o nY. e t i t s t i l ls c e m sa p p r r e ntth a t .o n ( ) p o l - t h i ss. i g n i l i c a ncto n c € r nos! c r s u p p l )i r n r a r c r l s u b s t a n t i sr rpl c c u l a t i reel e n r e natr eg i \ j n g a d d c di n r p c t Ul :o p r i c e sl.N ( i . t h e i n r e s t r r e nbta n [ .n. c r t ets] r l 1 . p c c u l a t i \ c ' l o nfqo r i t i o n si n t h ec r u d en r a r k e tb. c t t i n go n o i l r e a c h i n pg r i c c sl c l l i n e r c c s so l 5 1 0 0 .a r t da s highasSl00.areate\tremele\elsrot5eenlbflca.i.Moreseriousthanthischanscdd\namichehind o i l ' s r i s e .h o \ r e Y e ri,s t h a t t h e s u r g ei n c r u d ec o m e sa t a t i m c $ h c n t h e U S e c o n o m vi s d a n g e r o u s l v \ u l n c r a b l eT . h e \ r o r l d e c o n o m \ ' ' rse s i l i e n cteo o i l s l a p i dr i s ed u r i n gt h i sd e c a d e h a so $ c d a g r e a td c a l t o 'I t h e a b i l i t \ o f a r o b u s tA m e r i c a ne r D a n s i o n t o a b s o r bs h o c k so f a l l s o r t s . h i s t i m e .t h o u q h .t h i s f i r s t l i n c o f d e f e n c ef o r e l o b a lg r o v r t hl o o k sr e n $ c a k i n d e c d T . h e U S e c o n o m ri s a l r e a d r r e e l i n gf r o m t h c i m o a c to f a b r u t a l h o u s i n gs l u m pa n d t h e s e \ e r ec r e d i ts o u e e z se n a r k e dh \ t h e r e s u l t i n gs h a k eo u t i n l h e s u b - D r i m em ( ) r t g a g e m a r k e l .N o * . A m e r i c af a c e sa f u r t h c r " d o u b l ew h a m m r " a s l h e r c c o r dc o s to l ' c r u d eu n d e r m i n e e s r o $ t h l a h i l ea t t h e s a m et i m e t r i s g e r i n ga l e a Di n U S i n f l a t i o nt h a t r r i l l s e r i o u s l v intDedcthc FederalReser\e'sabilitl to resDond!rilh lorier inlerest rates.As CapitalEcononrics suggests in r tinr'-'l\rcport(oda).the malign combinationofbadlv falterine gro\rth wi(h rising inflationarv Dressuresno$' confrontingthe United Statcsraisesthe spectr€of another Seventies ccononrictr'ntr staeflation._Thc risksto LJSgro\\1harc all too clear.The knock-oneffectsof oil priccs could seethe cost ofgasoline for US motoristsrise bv as much as 50 r,er cent over the next coupleof months.On toD of that, the averaseAmerican's homc heatingbilt is set to double this winter. Combinedwith the continuedtoll liom the housingrrarket'sdorvnturnandthe creditsquc.'ze.it is far fronr implausiblethat theseblo$s will sccthe US cconoml shrinkin the final quarterofthis year.Yct at the sanre time.the f'ed is likelv to haveto grappleuith a probablejump in inl)ation.CapitalEconomicsforecasrs that thc cfiectsof sharPlrincreased energl'costscouldpushheadlineUS inflationto nearly5 per can1.levclsnol seenfbr I 6 \ ears.b1 December.With the plungein rhc dollar alsostokinginflationaqpressurcs in Anrerica. thc almoslincvitable' consequence ofthis lbr the Fed\\ ill be that it u,ill takc longerto deli\er the cuts in interr'slratc'slhal \\ jll ultinratel),be necessary lo shoreup ccrrnonrjc activit). In lum. lharpoilltslo a nrorc painful outcoflre.not iust for Americ!. but for the rc5( of the world.

BiofuelsAtf I 3'1'l2l

cNDt2k8-9 Ilcgcnts

Oil- Highpriceskill the economy(global) llising oil prices kill consumerconfidcnce,raise manufacturing costs,and incrcascinflation - crushingthe globaleconomv (iulf Times Il-28-07(SI00oila near http:'rl*rr.gulfsa)anal)sts". ccrlaint\. l i n r e ' s . c o m r s i t c ' t o p i c s ' a n i c l c . ansop: 2? & c ui t c n ] n o - I 9 f i 2 5 & v c r s i o n l & t e m p l a t ci d J 8 & p a r e n ti d 2 8 ) -Nert s u n r n r cprr i c e sr v o u l dh a r eg o t o n e d g cu i l h t r a d e r s a l i n gi t * a t n o r ro r n e r c rf o r t h eB u s h adntinistration to bonrb.At this poinl.\\'ecan sa1it's never. saidKirsch.Sonteanall'stsbelievethal thc soaring oil DriceshaYea knock-oneffecton thc n hole econom\'- from a commercialside.the DroductioncostsofelectricitY rise. which raisesmanufacturingcosts.From a consumerside.thc Drict of Detrol for carsand othervehiciesrises.leadingto reducedconsumerconfidenccand sDendins Accordingto a Wall StreetJoumalreport,oil priccs$ ill havca severenegativcimpacton the world cconontriflher remainhigh fbr a rclativel)longerperiod.Iligh oil Drices$ill hare a much morc scrious i m D a c to n e r l l e r g i n qe c o n o m i etsh a n d c \ e l o D c dc o u n t r i e st.h er e p o ns a i d .a d d i n gm a n l c o u n t r i ehsa v c t h c f i n a n c i abl u r d e no f t h e s c r a i s e do r u i l l r a i s et h er c t a i l p r i c eosf f u c l o i l . u h i c h u i l l h e l pa l l e r i a t e eoLrntrie a sn dr e s t r a i o n i l c o n s u m p t i oO n .n t h eo t h c rh a n d .a n o i l o r i c c h i k c \ i i l l i n c r e a s et h c b u r d e no l ' l ) . ) 1 hb u s i n c s s casn d h o u s e h o l dasp d t h e r i s k o f i n f l a l i o na r $ c l l . T h c i n r p a col n t h ee n r e r g i nngl a r k s t (s) l r cD I ' llr!'non-Otr('D n a l i o n s u c ha sC h i n a I. n d i aa n dt h e N ' l i d d l Ic: a s tr ri l l b e s l r o n ga n de n c r g ri n t e n , < i C l r ' o r i t h -s a i do n ea n a l r s t\.\ ' h i l cC h i n aa n do t h c rA s i a nc c o n o n r i er se l r t h t o u g he x p o n 5o n t l t cc x l e r n a l ,.lenrand 1l-orradvancedecononrics for thcir (iDI) gror\111. a slo\\do\\nin thcscrconornicsslrouldonll nrr)dcfale the GDI) gro\\1hin energingnrarkctsand thr'irdcrnandlirr oil. Accoldingto an Nl)R (National I ' u b l i cl l a d i o )r e p o n .t h e ' i n r p a o . n er c a s o ni s t h a tt h e L S c c o n o m r c tn t h eL I Si s n o t a ss c r i ( J Uasse \ f ! ' c t c d O Il: shiliedl'nrnra largcll manulacturingtoa serriceecrrnonl. anil thelelirreits enr'rg1necds.as a l l o r . - ' c l l l c i e tnol d a )t h a n . l s o .c a r sa n da i | p l a n r sa r e .o r c r a l l .s i g n i l i c a n t m I r ' r c c n l a s oe l ' G D l ' .a r el o r r e r A t h c r u e r e , 1 5) c a r sa g o .O t h e r se c h o t ' d t h c r i c u p t r i n t:.a l i n gt h a th i - r : oh i l p r i c c sh a r ca l i n r i l e di n p a c lo n I i c h c o u n t r i e sB. 1 t a k i n gi n t oa c c o u ntlh e i n l l l t i o nl a c t o r a . n i t l \ s t sr a i do i l c o n s u n r p l i oonn l r r c p r e s e n it's' u i n c o n s u n r e resn t i r cc o n s u n r p l i oanc. c o u n t i ni gi r I h a l l ' o 1 ' t hlei g u r ci n t h c 1 9 8 0 sO. i l p r i c c sa r ec l . p e c l e rcrl r e n r a i nr o l a t i l ca s l o n ga sf a c t o r sr c n a i ns u c ha s U S - l r a rlre n s i o n rsn d t h c f i n a n c i anl r a r k ettu r n l o i tl h a l l nd l i r l l o u e dt h eA m e r i c a nh o u s i n g n r o r t g a grcn a r k ecl r i s i sa. n i n d L r s l reyr p e r ts a i d .T h e u o r l d ' s f i n a n c i a a o i l m a r k e t sa r e b e c o m i n gi n c r e a s i n g lcYo n n c c t c da n do i l p r i c c sa r cn o l o n g e d r r i r c nb ) l h ! ' l i r n d a n r . n l a l \ t r i s L r p p lar n dd e n r a n ad l o n e s. a i dD a n i c lY c r g i n .c h a i l n r aont - t l S - b a s ccdo n s u l l a n cCr a n l b f i d g[cn c r { } i l e ' r ' u r c h. \ s : o c i a t c(sC e r a ) .

Iligh priceshurt the \\'0rldcconorn\- reduccsconsuncr confidcnceand increascsrisk of inllation \ i n h u : r N e u s 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 7( $ a n sa n dC h e nC a n g ." Y c a r c n d c rC: r u d eo i l r o r e m a i ni n h i g h - p r i ctee l l i t o r l ' , \ i n l r u aN c ! \ s A g c n c \ .h t t p : n e \ \s .\ i n h u a n e t . c o' cmn g l i s h 2 0 0 7 -I 1 l 0 c o r t c n t 7 2 2 4 3 0 8L h t n r ) !i()n].anal)5tSbelie\ethalthe--lronla conrnrercial sidc.the oroduction costsofelcctricitY risc. which raisesmanufacturinecosts.From a consumerside.the price of petrol for cars and other vehiclesrises.leadingto reducedconsumer confidcnceand sDendinp.According to a Wall Strcct Journal reDort.oil Driceswill have a serere ncgativeimDacton lhe $orld econonr if thev remain high for a relativeh longer period. Hi{:h oil Drices$ ill ha!e a much more seriousimpact on emergingeconomicsthan developedcountrics.the r c p o r t s a i d ,a d d i n gm a n \ c o u n t r i e sh a y er a i s e do r $ i l l r a i s ct h c r c t a i l p r i c e so f f u e l o i l . u h i c h * i l l h c l p alleviatethe financialburdenofthesecountriesand restrainoil consumption. On the othcrhand.g1_q!.1_p!gg h ike l,rill increasethc bu rden of both businesses and householdsand the risk of inflation as $ ell.

BiofuelsAff 135,222

ct\ I)t lk8-g Rcgcnts

O i l - H i g h p r i c e sk i l l t h e e c o n ( g l o b a l ) Oil pricescan collapseglobaleconoml- rest of economl'tied to oil tclritol. Xinhua Nens 12110107 (wangandChen in high-pricc Cang. "Yearender: Crude ojltorernain X i n h u aN e u s A g e n c l .h n p : " n e u s . \ i n h u a n e t . c o m ' e n2g0l i0s ? h - 1 21 0 ' c o n t c n7t 2 2 4 3 0 { lL h l n r ) CRLIDEOIl.TOREMAINtr\-IIICII-PRICEIERI{llORYAhhoughilhaslailedlocrossthc100-dollar thresholdin Nor,cmbcr.cxpcnssaidoil pricesrrill remainaround90 dollarsfor sonrctime and rlillcruss llte 100 dollar nark sooneror later. rcach 76 dollars. said Hong. addine it is almost impossiblefor global oil Dricesto drop sharDlvif thc $orld econom\ doesnot move into recession.Oil Dricesare exDectedto remain volatile as long as factors remain such as U.S.-lran tensionsandthe financialmarkettumloil that followedthe American lrousingmongagcntarkelcrisis b e c o m i n gi n c r e a s i n e lcvo n n e c t e a d n d o i l D r i c e sa r e n o l o n g e rd r i v e n b y t h e f u n d a m e n t a los f s u D D l \ a n d d c m a n da l o n e .s a i d D a n i c lY e r g i n .c h a i r m a no f U , S . - b a s ecdo n s u l t a n cC v a m b r i d p eE n e r g r ItesearchAssociates(Cera).Tensionsbetweenlran and the West over the former's nuclear d c \ e l o D m c pht a \ e c o n l r i b u t e dt o h i g h g l o b a to i l p r i c c sa n d a f f e c t e di n \ e s t m e n it n I r a n i a no i l a n d q r s D r o i c c t sl \. l u c ho f t h cp r i c c\ o l a t i l i t i)n t h ec o m n l o d i t \ h a s t o d o * i t h d a l s c n t i r n c n t . s a i d s e na inoar lor isl t ( o l n . \ I u n r ! ' ra. d d i n gt h c ' 1 - arcctn r a i nhs o u e , , c lrh a l i r i \ b c c o n r i n ign c r c a s i n gdl yi l l i c u l tt o l o c a t e additional h r c l r o c a r b or e r ts e r ! c s '.l i r i s t i n gr e s e r \ c a s c r o s tsh r r r o r l da r ea l r e a d ve r p e r i e n c i ndge c l i n c si n o u l p u la t a l i t r c $ h e n d c n r a n di s s l i l l s t r o n g .h" e s a i d . _ T hI c( ) o - d o l l a r s - p e r - b asrcr re:ln a r i o $ .h i l c i t m a y n o t b ! ' r c a c h c d l i r i s\ a a f . i \ l i k e l r l o o c c u ri n t h c n o l - l o ( ) - d i \ l alni rl l L r r ch-c s a i d " l h i : s i r p p l r - d c n r a insds r . ri sc n o t l r r i n ga \ , i r runL l i ir ed u rs o f c l r e a po i l a r c l i , r ' r h ch i s t r r r by o o L : . "

AlT Biolirels l36''ll2

C N I J I2 K 8 . 9 Rescnls

Oil - Highprices) recession High oil priccs rr ill lead to unrccoverablcrccession Lexis) lbrconsunrcrs')". January !2.2001t. ahead HattiesburqAmerican,200tl("Recession

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UiolirclsAII' lli 212

c N D 12 k 8 - 9 Regcnts

Oil - Highpricesstrengthenlranianregime High oil pricesstrengthenIranian regimc - Securit)implical ionsol rising Ilaillic - Prof. of Economics(a1M.S.U.1-10-2008(" l heSl 00qucstion o i l p r i c c s . ' h t t p : " u u u . j a n e s . c o m " n e w s i s e c u r i t l ' r c o u n t r l r i s k l i n j i rI 0n8.0sIhI 0t m l ) \\'ith oil pricesapDroachingUSDl00 Der barrel. oil producersarc receivingsignificantlvhigher rcvcnueslhan the),hadoriginallybudgetedfor. For thosegotcrnmentsihat deDendDrimaril\ on oil rercnuesto fund their budqets.such as lran and Venezuela.this renresentsa significantwindfall and can be usedto bolster the sovernment'sdomesticand internationalstanding.The impact&LEg! rs gron,ingpouer asan oil cxpofiergivesit significantleveragcon the international obvious.asthe countryJs slaec.),iotonl\' $ ill high oil revenuescomDensate to someextcnt for the imDactof United Statesi m n o s e de c o n o m i cs a n c t i o n sb. u t T e h r a nu i l l c a l c u l a t et h a t s u c hd c m a n df o r o i l r r i l l r e d u c et h e thetclort' i n c r e a s cI r a n ' sc o n f i d c n c co. r b c l l i s c r e n c *ch. c n n c g o t i a t i n ge i t h e rb i l a t c r a l ho r m u l t i l a f e r a l h .

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funds terrorism Oil - Dependence ,{nrerica'scurrcnt oil addictiondirectlr funds tcrroristsorganizations in the N{iddlelllst that $ ill attack tho LIS ethanol is ke1.to soh c. I)inneen pr!'sidenr l'ucls Assocjation Jan]008(Bob.Energizinr Anrclican andC[O of thcRenc*able Sccuritr". 'pqdrveb?did.= htlp; proquesl.urrri.conr t l 5d 6- 6 &R Q f - 1 0 9 & V N a n c ' P Q D ) I.lIi9ll?.11&sid=-.1&Fnrt-l&clicn1 'l (,ouncilol'Adr isors Ethanol can reducc (hc fiation'5dangerousaddiction to fossilfucls. he Presidcnt's lbr Scir'nceand Technolog)(PCAS-f)concludcdin 1999:"A plausibleargunrcnlcan b!'n)adsihal thc securit\ol tlrc tjnited Slatesis at lcastas likelr to be irnperi)edin thc firsthalf ofthc ne\t ccntuD b) the consequcnccs of inadequacies in thc ener-qy optionsarailabl!'ro tire$orld as br inadeqLracics in Ihe c i l p a b i l i l i c(s) 1U - S .\ \ c a p o n s ) s ( c n r .I"i g h t l e a r sl a t c ' r{.) u rc o u n t r v i s a t n r r a n d o u r c n e r g vf u t u r c i s looking far lesssccure.l-hc increasinghprecarious situalionrrc llnd oursclresin can be er.plained s L r c c i n c l hA:m e r i c ah a sa d a n q c r o u sa d d i c t i o nt o o i l . F o r m o r et h a n1 0 0\ e a r s .A n r e r i c ah a sg r o r r n ircrcasi|gI depcndenton oil to porrcr this countn lbnrard. I o br surc.q!]_[45-!9913-19!ggug_gg!14{ r c s o u r c el h a t p r o r i d e dt h e c p c r g \ t o m a k e A m e r i c at h e m r ) s (D r o s 0 € r o u s .u c c e s s f ual .p d s l a b l c c o u r t t r \i n h i s t o r r .l o d r r . r r i t h i n c r c a : i n q l r c o n r i n c i n ! c r j d c n c c . A n r e l i c n ' s r e l i a n c e u p n n o i l . p u r t i c L r l r r l r l r o | r tu n \ l t b l cr e g i o n so i l h c ' $ o r l d i. s p u n i n go t l rn i l l i o na l r i s ( . l r \ c r ) d a l . / \ n ] c r i c ai i r p o n s l o r c t h a l )l l ) r r i l l i o nh a n e l st r l o i l . t h en r a j o r i t or t ' r r h i c hi s u : c dt o p r o d u c ct h eg a s o l i n ed.j c s r - a . l n. do t h ! ' rl i r c l \r e ( l u i r a Ido k r t f , \ r l e r i c an i o r i n g .N l o r ct h a i nh a l l - 1 h o si oar p o n sc o n t ci i o n r t h cO r g a n i z a t i oorfrl ) c l r o l e u nlri r p o n i n g ( o u l ) l t j L (5( ) 1 ' j 1 . ( a ' ) n. u n r b etr, l r r h o s cn r c n r b e rsse e kt o d o . . \ r n c r i chua r n rA . s a l c s L r l itt.c c o r d i nt-o! a l ) ! p a r t n r ! nol l l ) c l e n s c( l ) o l ) ) r c f o r l .\ \ ! ' s n c n dS J - .b1i l l i o nt rr e a rt o p r o t e ctth el l o r i o l o i l l i o n rt h c [ ' ( r : i a n ( ; u l l - i i n d o t l r\ o u | ! n t e na n dr r o n t e nd r r c c t Ni n t h t ' l i n er ) f i l r . . \ l o r e o r e r .a c c o r d i n tgo m i l i t a r ya n d l)ul t r t t i o n ailn t e l l i g e n cce\ p c n ss u c ha s f o r n r eC r e n l r a Il n t e l l i r : c n cAeg c n c rD i r e c t o R r . J a n ) c \s\ ' o o l s e )t.h e t . l i l c d S t a t e ss e n d !b i l l i o n so f d o l l a r \ t o t h c s es a m en a t i o n sf o r t h c i r o i l . d o l l a r st h ? t a r e t h e n d i r c c t l \ f u n n e l c di n t o t h e s c h o o l sa n d c a m D s( h a l a r c ( r a i n i t r (t h e n e r t g e p c r a t i o no f r i o u l d - b c - t e r r o r i s t\s\ h \\ r' 'i{ to d(} haBnlo Americans.bothat hone and abroad.Add to {he eouationthat demand for encrer in b o l h A m e r i c aa n d a r o u n dt h c $ o r l d i s e \ p c c t c dt o i n c r e a l i c5 0 r r c r c c n h t } 2 0 3 0a n d t h a t m o r e t h a n l $ o - t h i r d so f l h e $ o r l d ' s k n o \ i n o i l r c s c r r c sl i c u n d e r t h e ! a n d so f t h e s cn a t i o n s i.t b e c o n l ec\ r \ s t a l c l { j d r n h \ A m c r i c a n u s t n l a k r a t l - t u r n $ i t h r c s n c c t t o i t t d e g ( n d c n c c o n l b r e i g n s ( i u r c c l il o , rt oh irl . lilccLr1.t1lcstrrtrllrlcnlsandthe1drnliijallleclral|!'n,.'lc'\lhc\|retcDl.ill1']!''lio|l\atrt]hi.irrlrrcrr|'itlg r i r r 1 , : r . ' r i s l t$[ o r l i n g 1 op r o r i d e ' o unr i ] i i ( r n r l l n i a l i t r l i J o t !l o l i , f r i g no i l . \ c s t l e J i n l h c c ( t r nl l t l d s a r ) ( j ' l l l l l l cl o n i n r L l n i t(i)c1r! l l r l lA l ] l r r j ! , t r o d , t )r.i n d u s t t \ i s r a n i d l t d c \ c l o D i n g l h r t D r o \ i d c \ t l g o i ) d f i r s t \ l L t ) r u r ' I d i n g ( ' r r ra d d i c t i o nt u f r , r . ( i g no i l .

c N D I2 k 8 - 9 lLcgents

B iol'uc'l,s Aff l..li tll

Oil - lranianoil revenuegoes to WMDsand terrorists lranian oil rcvcnueis purchasingnuclcar*capons,r*'MDs,and funding terroristgroups .'13igmoncy. C'ohen 08 lAriel. seniorresearchfel)o$ in international energl secLrritla1thc lleratigel'oundalion. ' P r c s s ' C o m n l c n t r r y ' ' e d 0 6 0 4 l l i g O i l . 1 3 i gR i s k ' J u n e J. t h h r t p : 'r r$ $ . he r i r a g co .r g 0 8 b c. f mj O i l D r i c e sa r e g o i n gu D n a r t l t b c c a u s e o f s u o n l t a n d s p e c u l a t i o nP. a r t o f t h e r e a s o nt h e v c t n d o t h i s i s that sovernmento s f t h e o i l P r o d u c i nagn dE x p o n i n gC o u n t r i c(sO P E C )c a r t e l ,a n d t h c n o n - c a r t e l . a k es u r c t h a t i n t e r n a t i o n aol i l c o m r r a n i edso n o t o r n r e s e r v c si n t h c q r o u n d . D l o d u c e r sl i k e R u s s i am l:rron. f
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C ND I ] K 8 - 9 Ile-!!nls

Oil - lran funds and trainsterrorists lmnian rcgime funds and trains tcrrorist groups 7,alman, no date, (seniorstratr'gist at ScicnceApplicatiorlslDlcrnational Corporation."lran s Rcrolutionarl Cuard:[io$ Iriln lrains ForciqnTenorists"hnp:'',/terrorisnr.about.con] od.riran a,lR(;C.htnr) T h c l s l a m i cR e r o l u t i o n a r vG u a r d C o r o s( I R C C ) w a sf o m r c db l A y ' a t o l l aRh u h o l l a hK h o n r c i nl ib l l o r v i n g t h e l q 7 9 r e ! o l u t i o nl.1 ' sr e a s o nf o r b c i n s$ a s t o D r o t e c t h e r c \ o l u t i o n ' sg o a l sa n d c \ e c u t i o n b . \ a c t i n ga s a policeand internal sccurit\ forcc seDaratefrom the regular armed forces. lhe IRCC'sdomesticrolc includcsentirrcingmoralit)'dictates. suchas makingsurethat rlonrcnare dressednrodcstl)in public phces. T h e I R C C a l s op l a v sa f o r e i s nr o l c .a c t i p sa s a p r o x v f o r l r a n o r o t h e r $ i s ee r D o r t i n ga n d e r e c u t i n q l r a n i a no b i e c t i v c a s b r o a dt h r o u s ht h e i r o w n a c t i o n so, r o r o v i d i n g( r a i n i n et o D a r a m i l i t a r r! n d terrorisl organization.l heseare largell'carriedout throughthe actionsolthe Al QudsForce(Jcrusalenr fofce,. According to thr Fedcratio|lofAmcricao Scieotists:"1he Qods(Jcrusalcm)Forceoflhe ]ranian IlcvolutionaD'GuardCorps(IRGC) is responsible for extraterritorial oprations. includingtenorist opcrations.A orimar\ f(,cusfor the Oods Forcc is lraining Islami( fundarpcntalisllerrorist erouDs, ( ' u r r c n t l \ ' .t h e O o d sF o r c ec o n d u c t st r a i n i n ga c t i \ i t i e si n I r a n a n d i n S u d a n .T h e O o d s F o r c ci s a l s o r c s p o n s i b lfeo r g a t h c r i n gi n f o r m a l i o nr e q u i r e df o r l a r g r r i n ga n d a l l a c k D l a n n i n q f. h c ' P a s d a r ahna . conlacls\\ilh undcrground morcnlcntsin the (iull resion.and l)asdaran nrcmbcrsarc l::igned to lraniarr L l i p l o n r a tni cr i s s i o n rsi.h c r e .i n t h c c o u r s eo l r o u l i l e i n l ! ' l l i - g L ' r l r r ' a a l j \ ti h lie r \\ I t o n i t r r d r i s s i L j c n tPsa. s d a r a n i n l l u e n ch c a sb e c np a r t i c u l a r li lm p o n a nitn K u u i r i t .B a h r a i na. n dt l r eL i n i t c dA . a b l l n l i r a t c s f h c l a r s e 5 l branchol Pasdaran fbrci-gnopcrationsconsistso1'I pprr.rr inratr'lr11.000Arabic spcalingIranian\.A1.[hrns. I t l t q i s[.- . ' b a n c sseh i i t c sa n d\ o r r h : \ l i i c a t t s\ \ h ( rt r a i n c di n l r a no l l e c e i r c dl r a i n i n ri n A l e h a n i s t adnu r i n g l]]c\lgha|\\ar}eilIs'I,rtSenIl)1hc\| a n d i n c l u d ( t h c H i z b a l l a hl " P a r t \ o f A l l a h " l i n t c l l i q c n c el o, q i \ t i c sa n d o D c r n t i o n aul n i t si n l . c b a n 0 I t l i z h a l l a lits p r i m a r i ) ra s o c i aal n dp o l i t i c arl a t h c rt h a nm i l i t a n o r g a n i z a t i o nTl h. c s e u o n dl a 1 3 e sl )l a s c l a r a n l o r t i g no p c r a t i o nrsc l a t e tso t h c K u r d s( p a r t i c u l a r Il r a c l K i u r d s )r. r h i l et h c t h i rd l a r g c srte l e s1 ot h e K a s h n r i r i ' sl h. c l l a l o u c h si a n dt h eA l g h a n \ T . h | r P a s d a r a nh a sa l \ o s u p p o r t e dt h e e s t a b l i s h r n e on ft H i z h a l l a hb r a n c h e si n L e b a n o n l, r a q i K u r d i s t a n .J o r d a n a n d P a l e s t i n ea.n d t h c I s l a n r i cJ i h a d i p m n n r o t h e r l \ t o s l e mc o u n t r i e si n c l u d i n gE g \ D l .T u r k e \ . C h e c h n \ aa n d i n C a u c a s i al.l i z b a l l a hh a sb e e n L f L : . Sd. o l l a r sa n d [ : r r r o p e acnu r r c n c i e ls).o t ht r )f i n J n c ci r so p e r a t i o nl sn J t t , i t l l P l i r d t c idI l h e ( o u n t e r i ! i l i n o t l i : r u p t\ \ ' e . r c r nc r o n o n r i cbs\ i n i p a i r i n irn. t c r n a t i o nlar a l d ca n dl o U r i s n t .T"h e l R ( ; C ' h a sa o l a c t i \i t \ i n p o \ t - l f u s s e i nl r r q . f r o u ri n t e l l i [ r n c cl r c l i \i ( i ( s .( o l u n n e l i n gr r t l t J r h r o u ! : ht h c s o u t ht o s h i i t e i n s u r s e n l st.o s u n D l \ i n gs u o p o r tt o l r a q ' s l r e c s tS h i i t cD o l i t i c anl a r t i e s n / i l i t i a s .s u c ha s t h c lladr (-ornr.

I l i o l u c l sA f f I11 i222

cNDt lk8-9 Resenls

Oil - lranianregimechangefeasible lran's lossof lcgitimac)'makesrcgime changefeasiblc. Tahcri

a u t h o ro l ' t c nb o o k sa n da f r e q u c nct o n t r i b u t ot ro n u m e r o upsu b l i c a t i o ni ns t h e M i d d l eI i a s t N o \ e m b c r

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But solncntightobject -ven grantingthc rinuc o1-theidca.hon realisticis regimc changein Iran? Can 'I-he the po\\'erstill held by thc mullahsover the it happen? short ans$cr is ves.Withoul undcrestinratiog havocin placesnearand l'ar.a numbero1'factors lranianpcople.let alonetheir abilit) to \\'reakdevastating suggcstthat.like otherrevolutionarlregimesbeforethem.their condition is more fragilc lhan maY at first appear.One sisn is the lossof regimc legitimacy.The lslamicRepublicowed its inilial legitinrac)1(]the r c ro l u t i o no f I 9 7 9 .S i n c et h e n .s u c c e s s i vKeh o m e i - n i sat d m i n i s t r a t i o nhsa v es r s t e m a t i c a l ldr i s m ar r t l e d s a v em a s s a c r e tdh e i r t h c v a s t .m u l t i f o r mc o a l i t i o nt h a t m a d et h e r e l o l u l i o n r t o s s i b l eT.h e K h o m c i n i s t h m a n \ I s l a m i s t sf r o m a n d e r e n f o r m e r l e f t i s ta l l i e s d n a t i o n a l i s t i n t o e r i l e . . ri\en their oartncrs Durqed Dositionsof oo\rer. Ieavingtheirour basefracturedand atlenuated.Thc rcginre'searll lcgilimacvalso dcrired lion relerendums and electionshcld rcgularll sinceI 979. In thc pastt\\ o decadcs.hou cr er. q4g! n c \ r e l e c t i o nh a sb e e nm o r e " a r r a n e e d "t h a n t h c l a s t .$ h i l e t h e a u t h o r i t a r i a nh a b i t o f a D D r o v i n g c a n d i d a t c si n a d r a n c eh a sb c c o m ea r o u t i n cD a r t o f t h e e x e r c i s e\ .4 a n ) l r a n i a n s a $ l a s tl e a r ' s p r c s i d e n t i cal e c t i o ni.n * h i c h . A h m a d i n e j a ud a s d e c l a r e ad s u r p r i suei n n c r .a st h e l a s ts t r a r t c: r e d i t c d* i t l t vote in thc firsl round.he'endedup beingnanrcdthe \\ inncf in the sccond iuil 1l pcrccnlol the electorate's r o u n d\ i t h a n i n c r c d i b l6e0 p e r c e not f t h c r o t c .S t i l la n o t h esr o u r c eo f t h c r c g i n l c ' sl e g i t i n t a c\!\ a s i t s n r c s s a gocl s o c i a jl u s t i c e ' a n di t s p r o n r i steo i m p r o v ct h c l i l e o l l h e p o o r .T h i s .t o o .h a sb e e n5 u b \ c n e db ) f e a l i t \ .T o d a \ . m o r e t h a n . l 0 D e r c e not f l r a n ' s 7 0 n r i l l i o np e o D l cl i \ e b e l o \ rt h c n o \ e r t \ l i n c .c o m D a r e d r \ i t h 2 T D c r c e nb t e f o r et h e K h o m e i n i s tsse i z e dD o $ e r .l n 1 9 7 7 .l r a n s ( i D P p e rh e a dp c r a n n u n\r\ a s t h . - \ i 1 n rl cs S p a i ns . T o d a 1 S . p a i ns C D P i s I i r u rt i m c sh i g h e rt h a nl r a n s i n r e a ld o l l a rt e r n r sr.\ s t h c g . p b c l u c c nr i c ha n dp u u rh a sr i i d e n e dt o a n u n p r c c e d L ' n d t cedg r e et -h c c o r r u p l i o o n l l h e r u l i n gn l u l l a l l sa. n r l l h c i ro s t e n l a l i o uusa l o l l i l i . h a v cn r a d ca m o c k c n o 1 ' s l o s a nl isk e l s l a n r i sc o l i d a r i t l . A s e c o n ds i g r ri . L l r t p f c s e n coel ' a m a j o rs p l i t\ i t h i n t h er u l i r r ge s t a b l i s h n r ei tnste l J I. h e l i s to l ' 1 i ) r n l cKr h o t n c i n i s $ t sl t o h a r c d i s l a n c etdh e n r s e l v el i so n l t o d a ) ' sr e g i m er e a d sl i k ea u t o ' s $ h o o 1 ' t h co r i g i n arl e r , o l u l i o n a D ' c l i lttc . i n c l u d c sl b r n r c r " s l u d e nlte a d e rus h o r a i d e dt h e L l . S .a r n b a s si ]n 1 9 7 9 l. b r m c r c o n r n l a n d ! ' r s 0 1 ' t h r l \ l a n l i ! I l r r t r l u i o n l r r G u a r dC o r p s a. n dd o z e n o s l l b r n r c lc a b i n cm t i n i s t c ras n dn r c n r b c ros1 ' t h el s l a n t i cX l a j l i i { l ) a r l i a n r c n \l )1.o s lh a \ c a d o p t r da p i b s i r es t a n c e r i s - . i - r i st h c ' r e g i n r b c .u t a s u r p r i s i nngu n r b eh| a rc c l c a i i l ' $ i t c h c d s i d c s . b e c o m i n g a c t i r e d i s s i d e n t s a n d i h c r e b l r i s k i n g i n r p r i s o n n r c n t . c r i ll !e! .f o r e r c n d e a t h d c c l i l c i n l h c r c g i m c ' si n t e r n a t i o n a l s t a t u rcco u l dd e c D c nt h i s s D l i t\ l i t h i n t h c e s t a b l i s h I I | c phtc. l p i n gt o i \ o l a t ct h c m o s t h a r d l i n eK h o m e i n i s t sA. t h i r d h a r b i n g e ri s t h a t t h e r c g i m e ' sc o e r c i v cf o r c e sh a \ c becomeincreasinglvreluctant to defendit againstthc Dcople.Since1002.tlreregularamrl. thc lslarrrir policehaverefusedto crushuorkers' strikes.studenl Ile\ olLrtionanGuardCorps.and the professional denronstrations. and othernranilestations the mullahsha\c [)een ofanli-regilneprotest.In manl inslances. o1-the lbrct'dto deployother.oftcn unol'1lcial. mcans.includingthc so-calledAnsartlizballah(.'Supportcrs Pan) ofCod") and the Baseejl\'lustadai'cen ("Mobilizationofthe Dispossessed'). A fourth sisn is the emergenceof allernativesourcesof moral authoritY in lranian societ\. E\ en in religiousnratters.more a n d m o r e l r a n i a n sl o o k f o r s u i d a n c et o n o n - o f f i c i aol r e v e na n t i - o f f i c i am l u l l a h s i.n c l u d i n gt h e c l e r g \ in lraq. (Adnrittedl).this is panll duc to the factthal the present'SupremeCuide." Ali Khamenci.is a rnidrankingnullah *ho rrould neverbe acceoledbr seniorShiiteclcrsr as a first amonqectuals.)

BiofuelsAlf l 4 E/ 2 2 ?

cN Dr 2k8-9 Ru!rr'nts

O i l - l r a n i a nr e g i m ec h a n g ef e a s i b l e I)emocraticchangeis possiblcin lran - the\''reon thc brink of a rcvolution' S a r i r i _ V i c e - l ' r e ' s i d conl tr h t ' N a r i o n aC)o a l i t i o no 1l') r o -D e n r o c r a cA) d \ o c a l c s 8 - : l - 0 7 ( S h a h a b .l r a n :A l h i r d O p t i o n ' .h t t p : r rn u . e l o b a l p r r l i t i c i a n . cl lol O n t7 - i r a n ) s c t $ e e na r e s t i v eD o D u l a t i o an n d l r a n i a n c i l i e sh a v eb e e nt h e s c e n co f $ i d e s D r e a dp r o t e s t sa n d c l a s h e b . t u d e n t sf i o n r ' l e h r a n 'A s m i r K a b i ro t h e r u i s ek n o r r na s t h c I r a n i a n r e g i m e ' sS t a t eS e c u r i t vF o r c e s( S S F ) S picturcsrrerebumcd carlierthis ]ear. El9-Ug!!L!ll4gi!gl!.ll: I)ol\lechnictJniversitl.uhere Ahmadinelad's l r i s o n e r sA. c r o s s{ h ec o u n t n .o t h e ru n i ! c r s i t i ehsa v el b l l o w e ds r r r t i n s d e m a n d i n gt h e r c l c a s eo f r r o l i t i c a D and clashesrvith SSFhare been\\'idel) rcported.O\ er thc pastfe\\'monlhs.teachcrs.laborers-and leninirtr hare alsostagedtheir own prot€sts.strikcs.and sit-ins.The Deoplcof lraIl hare shakenthe foundationsof ! h e m u l l a h ' sr c g i m e .r i s k i n gt h c r c l i v e st o m a k eo n c t h i n g c l e a r ll h a t t h e \ ' \ r a n td e m o c r a t i c h a n g ea n d pursrteda the Wcsl hasrclc'ntlessly rhc r-'ndto the mullah'sregimc.Wh) no\r? For ncarl) threcdecadL's p o l i c \ o l a p p c a s e n t ei n ta f a i l c da [ e n ) f tt o d e a l\ r i t h t h e n r u l l a h isn I r a ni n c r c h a n g el b r I u c r a l i \ e] c l s h o n rightcdecononic interests. l'oda).,duc ro thc regime'snuclearpro{ranrand its ertcnsirencddlinr: in Iraq\'cr'r!'r).and Atqhanistan. thercare signsthatthe uorld conitrunil) is in lhc proccssoJ I cbanon-I)alestine. l'o dale.l\\o rcsolutionshavebcenpas\edb) the inrple'nrcnting u ncu policr lrruardsthc lranianrcginrr,'. I n i 1 . dN a r i o n 5 S e c u r i t lC o u n c i li.r ) r p o s i r5ga n c l i o nesn l r a n ' sr r L r ) l a hIsn. I r a q -c o i t l i t i o nl o r c e sh 0 \ c b c t r ) il(ti\!'l) \\orling to countcrthc reginrcs etlbns to cstablisha sistcrthcocracllrasedon Khorrlcinis mcld,.'l Ihe'sene\' mcasures ha\'chadpositirc repercussions in the Iranianstrcets.In rcsponscto its inlernalcrisi5. i t s t e r r o r i s ta c t i v i t i c s l h e r e g i m eh a ss t c p D e du D r r u b l i ce r e c u t i o n sa.r b i t r a r \ a r r c s t s .a n d i p c r e a s c d d b r o a di n a h a l l o n s h o $ o f s t r c n g t h .I : n r b o l d e n ehd\ i n t c r n a t i o nfrrl c s s i r r h e o \ \ ! ' \ ' e rt .h c p . ' o p l co l l r a r r h r i r cb c e nu n r c l c n t i nign r h c i rp u r s u illi r r < j e n r o c ( r tci cl r a n g cI.h r s h i l i i n p o l i c \ a d o p t t di n r ! c c I l l r r ( ] n l l r \ i nl e l r c o u f a g i nl hgc i r i r r r t 'adl c o u n t c l i n tgh e l r a n i a nt h r e a b t o t ha 1t h e U . N a n di n l r a qh . l \ cb c c ni n s t r u r r c n l a p e o p io ef l r a n T h e s c o r c r d u e n r e a s u r e s h a r e l r o \ c n l h a l n e i t h e r r r a r n o r l p p c a s c n r c n l i s t h e a n ! \ \ c f i n L l c a l i nrgr i t l rt h c m u l l a h si n l e h r a n O . n er c r i o r i n g t h c n r a i n s t r e annrrc d i ai s l c d t r b c l i c r et h a lt h c r ea r co n l r s u t1 o l r a n s o r g a n i . / . d t l r . ' l r r oo ; ' l t i o nisn c o u n t c ' r i nl hge l f a n i a nl h r e a t ^. t l ) i r do l l t i o n \. h i c h r ' n t a i l r! e a c h i n o clcnr,lcrao t i pc p o s i t i orns t h ! ' r a t a l l r rl b I c h a n g ei .s n c i t l r cpr o l i t i c : r l leyr p t ' d i c nnt o r c o s l l l ( a i i r p p o s ctd( r r p p ! ' a s e m c n l o r $ a r r e s p c c l i r c l r ) b u t o t l l r s t h e o n l l c l l c c t i r c a n d r i a b l c a p p r o a c h . T fhocrr r o t c n t i a l o !n l ) f i o r b r i n g i n ea b o u ta c h a n g ei n g o v c r | l m c nrt c s i d r sr l i l h t h e I r a n i a nn r o n l c .i n d c c d .C ( , r n r n e n l i n l or t c s t sl . T e h r a n - b a s Iel !uj r r r p t ' adni p l o r n rct r p l u i r c ' d"-T h cp e n l - L rapn g e ri \ s l i l l t h c r . ' . ,rnti-sovenrnrp cn L r r l f i r l ll)h c s r r ' l i i c cl .l u t l i ' r i l l t r s r r i o u s l )l l k c o l l ' \ o u l e e J r c a l ; : l - r s\ ol .u D c e di r ! a r \ c . \ o t t n u 0 d o r g a ri / n 1 i ( ) ,l r r r dl c i i r l c r ' : h LI lps. a b i g 1 a \ k . h e s a i d S L r c pl ro t c r ' r 1ni r<1cl d st o b c l c g i t i n i z e dr r r r dn r o b i l i z c , i

lliofuelsAfl' 1 4 92 2 2

cNDt 2k8-9 Rc-qcnts

lranwon't pursuenukes Oil - Democratic A dcmocraticlran rron't pursuenuclcarrreapons- multiplecountricsprovc. \\'inter0(r07 Projccl coordinalors IranDemocracy l)iamond, McFaul and Milani_ IlooverInstitution

(L.arry.N4ichacl and Abbas,"A Win-Win tj.S. Strate$ jbr l)ealing$ilh Iran."l-he WashingtonQirarterl). lrllp: l\\ q.conr'07\tintcr,/docs1'07\yinter mcfaul.pd0 M a n r b c l i e v ct h a ta d e m o c r a t iIcr a nn i l l s t i l la s p j r et o b e a n u c l e aIrr a n .l r a n ' s a s D i r a t i o nfso r n u c l e a r n c a n o n sn r e d a t et h e I s l a m i cr e p u b l i c w . i t h t h e U . S , - a l l i esdh a hd e v c l o n i n gt h e t e c h n o l o s vi n t h c 1 9 7 0 s . \\'h\. therefore.$ould a dcmocraticIran be anv lessofa threal to the UnitedStatesand its alliesthan the currcnlreginre?Ofcourse.the foreignand nationalsccuritl'policiesofa dcmocraticIran cannotbe predictcd rr ith an) ccnaint). Other !!$g!ggg-q.t-d.qllqglq!!Z4jlq!. ho\\'everr..lEiggglg!L3!-9d-.!19-!!g!Sgl $ c a D o n sD r o g r a m si n c o u n t r i e s u c ha s B r a z i l .S o u t hA f r i c a ,a n d U k r a i n c .a n d I r a n ' s h i s t o r i c relationshiD $ i t h t h e W e s t g i v e sc a u s el o b e o D t i m i s t i ca b o u ta f u n d a m e n t a l l dv i f f e r e n tr e g i o p a l s e c u r i l ve [ l \i r o n m e n t .I n l a r g em e a s u r eI.r a n ' s l e a d e r ss c c kp u c l c a r\ r e a D o n tso d e t e ra U . S .a t t a c k , I hc rcgime s rcfrainaboutIran's"inalicnablcright" to nucleartcchnologyin the nanrcofscicnlilic proltc.: i s h o l l o $ .g i v e nt h er e g i n ' rsec o n t e n p t b r e v e n o t h c rr i g h to f l h c l r a n i a np e o p l ea n di t s p s e u d o r c l i g i o L t s a s s a u lol n s o c i apl r o l r e s sA. t t h es a m et i n ' r el h . e r ei s a l s oa n c l c m e not f p r e s l i g ea s s o c i a t e$di t l rj o i n i f g t l r e nuclcarclub and a desireto beconrethe donrinanipo*cr in tlre PersianCull. Thcscfaclorsri ill lu :ontc c\i!'nl pcrsi5lin a dcrnocralicIran.bu1 o r l s r a c la n d c o u l d$ e l l t l ea n a l l \ . M o r e o v e r .a d e m o c r a t i cl r a n n i l l b e a m o r e r i i t i o n a la n d r c s D o n s i b lceo u n l r \ . d r a $ n m u c h m o r c l o d e \ e l o D n r e nt h l r o u g he c o n o m i ca n d s o c i a li n t c q r a t i o n$ i t h t h c \ \ ' e s tt h a n t o r e g i o n a l d o m i n a n cteh r o u g hu e a D o n s .

I l i o f u e l sA i l ' | --i() lll

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BiofuelsAff t5t/222

C N D I2 K 8 - 9 Rcgcnts

Oil - lranianrevolutionimpact1/3 llad economicconditionscausesrevolution similar to previousIranian rel olution Washington Times, 2007(7-2-07, "C l o u l dt h e M u l l a h sF a l l ? " \ \a s l r i n g t o n t i m c s . c o m r p ' abpcpss. d i l l ' a n i c l e ?DA- li 2 0 0 7 0 7 0 2EiD l T O R I A L / 1 0 7 0 2 0 0 0 I , I -X I S ) Last week'sriots over gasolinerationins in Iran are the latestsign ofthc Islamistregimc'snolitical $eaknessand vulnerabilitv to economicDressure.DesDitethe fact that Iran is one oflhe world's largestcrude-oil exporters.easolineis rationed thanks to a lack of refinerv sDaceand massivcsubsidies for consumersstimulatedemandand createshortages,Lastmonth,the lranianMajlis (Parliament)voted to increasethe priceofgasolineliom approximatcll'26centsper gallortto 64 centsper gallon.but thal rvas intposedrationingand andthe governmenton Wednesday \ctocd b) PrcsidentMahmoudAhmadinejad. gasoline (while is sellingat nearly5i300 per gallon black markct, altcnrpledto fi\ the pricc at 34 cents on the local media not to reporton the pcr gallonin somepartsofthe country'). govcrnment has ordered the The and bloglers rcpon that Lrnres! causedb) rationing.but the ordersare beingu'idelf ignored,as nerrspapers g a ss t a t i o n sa r e b e i n gs e l a f i r e a n d t h a td r i v e r sa r e f o r c e dt o r a i t i n l i n e st h a t a r c s c r c r a lm i l e sl o n g i n order to purchasegas.The policechicf in Tehran said that | 7 gasstationsin thc canital u erc danraged ( 1 2 s c t a f i r e )a n d t h a t r i o t e r sb r o k e$ i n d o $ s i n c a r s a n d b a n k b u i l d i n g sT. u o ) e a r sa g o .! h Ahmadineiad r}as electedpresidentaftcr runnine for office on a populist r'latform - one basedon i m D r o v i n gt h e o u a l i t vo f l i f e b v b u i l d i n so r s u b s i d i z i n sr r u b l i ci m p r o v e m e n t(si . e . .b u i l d i n gn c $ s c h o , . r l s . or public parksor makingit possiblefor nervt'actories andjobsto relocateto one or another1o\\n).But hc and increasing has failed to deli\er on theseDromises.1'oda1.Iranianst'accdoublc-digitunemploynrcnt. dilllcult\ attractinqforeigninrcstment ihe latterdue in pan to intcnralionalecononicsanclionspushcJb! \\'ashington.Inflation is morc than 22 Dercent,and things are unlikel\ to geabetter anYtimesoolr' I n s t e a do f h e l p i n gt h e a v e r a g el r a n i a n .M r . A h m a d i n e i a df u n n e l sh u n d r e d so f m i l l i o n so f d o l l a r s p c r l c a r t o h e l Dn o n - l r a n i a nt e r r o r i s to r e a n i z a t i o nisn c l u d i n gH e z b o l l a hH . a m a s ,P a l e s t i n i a lns l a m i cJ i h a d in Londonlast\eek 1q!] and lraqi Shi'ite and Sunni iihadists.An Iranian businessmaninlervierved i o u r n a l i s tK e n n e i hT i m m e r m a nt h a t h e s e e sD a r a l l e l sb e t $ e e nt h e r i s i n gu n r e s ti n l r a n t o d a Ya n d t h e final vears ofthe Shah,who was toppled in 1979in the lranian Revolutionled bl the Alatollah rcminded Khomcini.A1'atollahAli Khamenei's predecessor as supremeleader.l&d!g-!E-!g19ll2bhe n l ! ' .t h e l r a n i a n e c o n o m \ .f l u s h$ i t h c a s hf r o m h i g h o i l D r i c e s$. a s b c s c tb \ h i q h i n f l a t i o n .i u s t a s i t i s n r l n . T h e s h a h ' sa n s u e ru a s t o f i n d a f e u b u s i n e s s m eunh o h a d r a i s e dD r i c e sa n d t h r o t t h e m i n i a i l . " N,1r'IiI]1Inennan\\'ri1eSalFrontPageMagaZine'c0m I r g i n r ch a sb e g u nt o s c a D e g o abtu s i n e s s m e inn.c l u d i n g S h a h r a nJra z a l e r ir.r h o I r a n i a ni n l e l l i g c n caeg e n l s k i d n a p p eld- r o nO r m a ni n M a r c h .l l c h a dl l c d l r a n F c b . 2 1 .a f i e rb e i n gs e n t e n c cl ,d' l , l l e a r s i n p r i s o no n 'corruption" chargcs.To the Iranianmullahs.Nlr. Jazaleriis a very dangerous nran.becausche saidearlier this \caf that he had documentsimplicatingrelativcso1 Mr. Khameneiin corruption.Afier his recapturc.i\{r. Jazareriuas lonured in the notoriousEvin prisonin'l'chran.Rightno$, PresidentBushand the restofthc civilized$orld are in a raccagainsttime: Unlesslhe re{:imefalls. it nill likel\ obtain nuclear weaDons. The onlr $ar to stopthat shon ofrvar is 1ousesanctionsand otherformsofeconomicpressureto give lhe reqimca tinal push.Accordingto Mr. Timmennan.the Britishgovemmentis proposinga U.N. Securit) Councilresolutionthat uould bar Iranianshipsliom landingat forcignpons and transitinginternational '10percentof lran'sdaill oil exportsin the shon run. Thrs ts \\alers.a move that u'ouldcut off approximateJy the kind of projectthe intcmationalcommunit)must enlbrace.becauseif economicprcssuredoesnot u'ork. the onl\ alternatives lefl \\'i1lbe J) militar5action,or 2) acquiescing to the unthinkable: allo\\'ingthe sociopathicmullahsin Tehranto obtainnuclearrreapons.

B i o l u c l sA I T I 5:',22:

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Oil - lranianrevolutionimpact2/3 Rt'l olution is the onll l'a1 to overthrou hard-linc Iranian regimc Sariri 2007 lShahabSariri.Vice-l'resident ofthc NationalCoalitionof Pro-Democrac!Advocates.Global P o l i t i c i a n . 2A , 1u g u s t2 0 0 7 ." 1 r a n a: T h i r dO p t i o n "L c r i s ) Iranian cities ha\e beenthe sceneof\r,idcsDreadprotestsand clashesbetweena restilc poDulationand thc lranian reqimc'sStateSecuritv Forces(SSF).Studentsfrom I ehran'sAmir Kabir othenriseknoru as Pol)lcchnicUniversily,uhere Ahmadinejad's pictures$'qrcbumedearlierthis year,havebeenstagingsitins demandingthe releaseofpolitical prisoners.Acrossthe country,othcruniyersities havefolloued suit and clashesu ith SSFhavebeenwidel)'reported.Orer the past fe!r'months.teachers.laborcrs.and feminists h a v ea l s os t a p e dt h e i r o $ n p r o t e s t ss. t r i k e s a. n d s i t - i n s T , h e D c o D lo e f l r a n h a v es h a k e nl h c f o u n d a t i o n so f t h e n ) u l l a h ' sr e q i m e .r i s k i n gt h e r el i v e st o m a k co n e t h i n g c l e a r :t h a l t h e \ $ a p t d e m o c r a t i cc h a n g ca n d t h c e n d t o t h e m u l l a h ' sr e p i m e ,U ' h ) n o w ?F o r n e a r l vl h r c c d c c a d e st h e \ \ 1 e s t h a s r e l e o t l c s s lD v u r s u c da p o l i c yo f a o o e a s e m e ni nt a f a i l c da t t c r n Dtto d e a l$ i t h t h e m u l l a b 5i o l r a n i n c \ c h d n g ef o r l u c r a t i v e) e t s h o r ts i g h t e de c o n o m i ci n t c r c s t sT. o d a r .d u et o t h er e g i m es n u c l c a p r rogfanr a n di t s c \ l c n s i \ em e d d l i n gi n I r a q .l - e b a n o nP. a l ! ' s 1 i n\c' c. m c n .a n dn f g h a n i s i a rnh. c r e ' a r e ' : i g tnhsa tt h c rtorld conrnrunilr, is in the proccssof inlplL'nrcnting a neu policy touardsthe Iranianreqinrel tr date.trro f c s o l u t i o nhsa v eb e e np a s s e b d ) t h e L J n i t eN r o u n c i li.n r p o s i nsga n c t i o nt sr n l r a n ' sn r u l l a h s . d a l i o n jS e c u r i t C In llaq. coalitionfbrceshavebeenactivel)\\orking ro counlerthc reginrcs cffons to establisha sister thcocfac)basedon Khomeini'snrodel.Thescne\\ nrcasures havchad positiverepercussions in the iranian ltrecls.In r.sponseto i1sinternalcrisis.the rcgimehasstcppedup publicerecutions.arbitran arrcsts.and increasedits terrorislactivitiesabroadin a hallou sho\\ ofstrength.Emboldenedbt intcrnational oressure h o \ i e \ e r .t h e D e ( ) D loef I r a n h a \ e b e e nu n r e l e n t i n ei n t h e i r D u r s u i tf o r d c m o c r a t i cc h a n e e T , h e s h i f ti n D o l i c \a d o D l e di n r c c e n tm o n t h sa i m c da t c o u n l c r i n sl h c l r a n i a n t h r e a t b o t h a t t h c U , N a n d i n l r a a h a r e b e c ni n s t r u m e n t ailn e n c o u r a g i n tgh c n e o D l eo f I r a n . T h e s eo r e r d u em e a s u r e h s a \ c D r o rc n t h a l n e i l h c r\ r a r n o r a p D e a s e m e instl h e a n s $ e ri n d e a l i n gr r i t h l h c m u l l a h si n T e h r a n .O n c t r ' r i e $ i n gt h , ; n r a i n \ l r c a n rt e d i ai s l e dt o b e l i c v et h a rt h e r ea r ec ) n l )t h er $ o o p t i o n si n c o u n t e r i nrgh c l r a n i a nt h r e a tn. t h i r d option.rr hiclrcntailsreachingoul to Iran'sorganizcddentocraticoppositionas the catal)'stfor changc.is ncilh!'rPagc) politicalll expcdientnor costl) (asapposedto appeasenent or war respectivel).) but oft'ersthc o n l l c 1 l ! c l i v ca n d\ i a b l ca p p r o a c hT.h e D o t e n t i aflo r b r i n g i n ga b o u ta c h a n e ei n g o r c r n m c n tr e s i d e s r \ i t h t h e I r a n i a n n e o D l ei .n d c c dC _ o m m e n t i n go n n r i o r a n t i - g o v e r n m e nDt r o t e s t sa, T ( h r a n - b a s e d Eurorteandinlomat explained."The Dent-upanger is still there. beneaththe surface.lJut for it to scriousl\ take offlou needa catahst. \ou needa cause.\.ou needorganizationand leadcrshiD.ll's big task." he said. Such ootcntial ncedsto bc lesitimizedand mobilized.Suooort for Iran's larscst. most orsaniTed.secular.and democraticopposition.the Peoplc'sMojahedinof Iran (l'l\,lOI/MIIK)and t h c N a l i o n aC l o u n c i l o f R e s i s t a nocfel r a n l e db 1 M r s . \ l a n a n R a j a t ii s i n s t r u m e n t ailn s o l r i n gt h e l r a n l . a s i J u n e .r e c o g n i z i n tgh e v a l u eo f l r a n i a n r e s i s l a n cteo t h e i r o w n s e c u r i t \ .5 . 2 n l i l l i o nl r a q i ' s lqlb s i g n c da d e c l a r a l i o pr e c o g n i z i n tgh e M E K a s t h e o n l \ b a r r i e r b e t $ e e nt h e m a n d i h e f u n d a c n l a l i s t s dilnatchcd br T€hran. The irlllK hasprored its deeFrootsrrithin lraniansocien,.lt bas crposedlhe r e g i n r e ' ts€ r r o r i s tn e t w o r k si n l r a o a n d a r o u n d t h e w o r l d a s w e l l a s d e t a i l so f t h € r c g i m e ' sn u c l e a t . .lhc NIEK s abilit) to nlobilizcand organizethe nrasses nroqram. hasneverbeentruthfulll'questioned. []nfonunatelr.toda\ thc MEK sitson the StateDepanmentand EU's list offoreign rerroristorganizations dirc1ooutdalcdand failcdappeasement policies.Martin Indyk,AssistantSecreta4'of SrareofNear Eastern Affairs at thc timc the MEK rvasblacklisted, told Neu,sweekon September 26.2002,"... lThere]$as Whrtc llousc inlercstin openingup a dialoguewith the lraniangovernment. At the time, PresidentKhatamihad rccentlYbeenelectedand wasseenas a moderate.Top Administrationofficialssawcrackingdour on the NIIK. which the lranianshadmadecleartheysarvas a menace,asone wa] to do so." The lcrror labela,qairst the \4EK ser\esas a lile line to the mullahsin Iran.In Eurooe.the EU Councilof Minisrershavechosento llagrantl)ignorethe rule of la*'b1 refusingto remore lhe MEK flom its terrorlist, asthel sere boundto do aher a Decetnber2006 ruling by the EuropeanCoun ofJusticeannullingthe EtJ'sdccisioDro blacklislrhe organization. Hislon' is our grealestteacher.Appeasemenl ofexpansionistregimesservesonll us u precursor to \\ idc-scaleconflicts.The listins of the MEK as a lerrorist eroup bv the EU ,nd thc State Denartmcnt is nothing nrorc than a dangerousact of aDDeas€m€nt. Such Doliciesfail to Dacifva rouge r€gimelvhich is hell bent on snreadingits fundamentalistr€volution throusholt the Middle East

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Oil - lranianrevolutionimpact3/3 Increasedlranian hard-line regimepolt er causesconflict in the Middlc East Salcm 07 {Paul-.Fcb.I l, Directorof the CrrmcgieM)ddlc EasrCcDrer,.lapanI imes."Dt'alingwith Iran'srapid risc in regidnalinfluence".Lexis) I!4Li! also reaDingthc returns of long-term investments.lt hassupportedIraqi Shiitegroupssincethe carN 1980sandhasan equallylong-standing alliancervith Svria.In Lebanon.Iran hcloed creale Hezbollah.uhich recenll]sun i!cd a head-on!r'aru ith lsrseland is the leadingopponentofthe anti-Syrirn. Wcstcrn-backed go\cmment.lran's inv€stmentin Palestineis more recent.but its backing for thc Hamas-lcdeovernment.rhich has beenfrustrated elsewhere.is no lesssisnificant.A countD'of70 m i l l i { ) nI.r a n a l s oh a sD o t e n l i ailn f l u e n c en i t h S h i i l ec o m m u n i t i e isn K u u a i t . S a u d iA r a b i a . B a h r a i n and thc UniaedArab Emirates.lran's risc is causingalarm in the Arab llliddle Eas(.Darticularl\ in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. but also in Esvnt. Thougha Shiitecountryin an overwhelminglySunniregion. Iran's radical Islamismresonateswith the politicizedIslamismthat is energizinemost Arab oDrlosition m o \ e m e n t sa. n d i t s m i l i l a n l o p o o s i t i o nt o t h e U . S ,a n d s u D D o rfto r g r o u p st h a t e n q a g eI s r a e li n b a t t l e is rcr! ooDularon the Arab streetand in the Arab media.At anotherle\,cl.Iran's risc, reinf
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Oil - lran Russianinfluenceimpactll2 Lack of democraticsupport in thc region spills over and increasesRussianinfluence, Politicsat Columbia Arnold A. Saltznran AssislantProfessorin the Practicc()f International " t s c l o n d ( L i n c o i n . b o m b sa n db a l l o t sd: i s p c l l i n g t l n i r c r s i t l ' sS c h o ool f I n t c r n a t i o naanl dP u b l i cA l T a i r s l - l - 0 7 -ballots99-690 92,118e) 0 I I ond-bombs-and rnlths aboutdemocrac)assistance". http:,/lgoliath.ccnext.com,/coms2/gi riispelling.htnrl) U IIILE THn polentialcostso1'continuing an aggrcssive polic! ot den)ocrac)pronrotionare clcar.the questionofthe costofdiscontinuingour policy ofdenocracy promotionhasnot beensuflicientlycxplurcd. U.S.suDDortofdemocracy and democralicactivistsover the last l5 \ears has not only heloed sarength€ndcmocratic institutionssnd consolidatedemocracics.il ha-salsochangcde\pcclaltonsand pcrceptions of the UnitedStatcsand alteredthe globalstrategiccontextfor America. It is broadll under:1o0d thatrhe lraq War. for example,hasmadethe UnitedSlateslesspopularin man) countries.But supponlbr dr'DroL'rac-\ in EiislcmEurtrpeandpais ofthe fomrerSovietUnion hasbolsteredIJ.S.popularit).Still. c r o l r i n g v i e r r : o ft h e L l n i t c dS t a t c sa r em o r cn u a n c e tdh a nt h i ss i m p l ci l n a l \ s i s .T h e r e i s n o n a n c \ D c c t a t i o na m o n gm a n \ r e f o r m e r si n t h e f o r n e r S o Y i c tU n i o n .A s i a .A f r i c a a n d , v c s .c \ e n o c c a s i o n a l lt\h e M i d d l e E a s l .t h a t t h e U n i t c dS t a t e s! , r i l ls u D p o r t h c i r d e m o c r a l i cc f f o r t s .T h i s e r n c c l a t i o nc o c x i s t su n e a s i l \$ ' i t h i nt h e s a m cs o c i e t i e s - - a nidn,s o m cc : r s e st h . c s a m ei n d i r i d u a l s - - ( h a t h a \ c a n i n c r c a s e dh o s t i l i t \t o \ r a r d st h c U n i t e dS l a t e s I. t i s n o l u n c o m m o1no$ i t n e s si n c o u n t r i ersa n g i n S r lirrnrthe Middle llasl to rhe fonnerSovicttJnion$idespreadoppositionto rhc Iraq \\'ar. coupledrrith thc h{,pf lhal lhe LlnilcdSlatesu ill pressureIhc natiyegorernnenl lo aJlo\\mL)refrccdorrsor lo D'rake the clcctionsfaircr. In thc l'ornlerSo! iel Linionthis is largeh duc to lhe prcponderant roie the LlnitcdStatesis percr'ivcdto hare plared in the color re\ olulions.Democraticbreakthrou{hs in (ieorgiaand I lkrainehare r a i s c dt h eh o p r ' so l d e n l o c r a t a i cc l i \i s t si n c o u n t r i essu c ha s A z c l b a i j a nA. r l n e n i aa n dB e l a r u sT. h e [ : n i l c d S t l t e sd i d n o t c r e a l et h c \ cb r e a l t h r o u g hass. h o t hs u p p o r l c rasn do p p o n e n tbrc l i e \ . . b u t f i n a n c i aal n . J lcch|ical supponand guidancefionr thc LinitcdStatcsand Iiuropcuas an inlegralconrponent.In the Nliddlc Irilsl.lilc pcfcL'ption \rhcrecontinued of thc llnited Statcs\\ ilh regardslo denocracl is firr nrorcanrbiguous. i u p n ( r nt a r t l r r S a u d i r e g i n r ies.r l c l a n dt h co n g o i n gn r i l i t a r yp r e s c n cien l r a qh r s r l e a k e n ctdh eA n r e r i c a D irnarcdranraticalll.Ilo\\ever.suppor!fbr nroreinclusivcelectionsin Egrpr--andthc denrocratic nrovelrlcnt i n I c b a n o n - - h ai nsd i c a t etdo s o n r et h a tl l . S .p o l i c l i n t h er e g i o ni s e v o l r i r g . l \ 4 a n ro b s e n e r si n t h eL n i t c d \ 1 r 1 . . h l t \ ! ' p o i n l c dl o l l i r n r a s J' sa n u r n2 [ t 0 ( r i c t o r yi n l h e P a l e s l i n i a n . ' 1 , - ' c at isopnl so o f t h a ll l ] c N l i d d l ! ' l : l \ l l \ l l r r lr s a d ) l i l r d s m q q l r a rB ' . u t H a n l a s \ \ o na \ e D n a r r o \ \e l c c l i o n\ i c l o n . I h e r ci : n o $ a r c ' adl a r g c r t h u t llanrasq ill usetl'ris\icton not to furtherdcmocracl--rhccriticsare righl aboutthal--butto consolidalean l r l h o f i l a r i a n l s l a m i srte e i n e .R c d u c i n d c e n r o c r a ca)s s i s t a n cl oc I ' a l c s t i noet t h i st i n t cr r i l l l i l c l r o n l l a . ! c l c r a t el l . r n d ! ' sn r r ) \ e n r e n i nt t h i sd i r c c t i o nT. h i s r r o L r l b d c t h e\ \ o r s (o u t c o n t cl i J rt h e U n i t e dS t a t e : i.: r a c l rl d I)alcslire.Irorthc Palestinians. a ficc mcdia.rule oflarr. scpalationol'po\\'ers.r ibrantNCO sectorand cr olr inr:polilicalparticsarethe besldcl'cnscs aqainstthe consolidation ol'po\\er and undenlriningof e \ i i t i n - sd ! ' n t o c r a t i n c s l i t u l i o nbs_ rl l a m a s . a p r n r l b r \ \ l t i c hl e s st h u nh a l f o f t h e n rv o t c d .I o n t a i n t a i tnh L r s t ' delcnses. thc) nccdforeignsupportandassistancc.In general.opponentsofauthoritarianrcginrcsin thc regionarc larqclvdrawnto Islamistpolitical odelsand rhetoric.Suprrortfor nascentdemocralic nlr)\cnlentsin thesecounlrie! can offer a comDetinsmodel and possibl\ brinp lslamistsinto rloliticsi a non-\'iolentwav. And withdrawing suDDortfor democraticmovementswould underminc \r'hatelcr suDnortthe United Stateshas earnedamong democratsill Dlacesas disparateas the former Sor iet Union. southentAfrica and Asia,and make antidemocraticideolopies.someofuhich are unambiguoLrsll drngerousro thc Unitcd Statesxnd its iotercsts, more aorrealing.Reducingsuooort for democracr in counlriesof thc formerSovietUnion, suchas Azerbaijanor Kazakhstan, rrould helDonly in the shorGternl to counter Russia'sinfluencein the reqion and DrovidealternatiYcenergvsourcesfor thc United of theseundemocraticregimesawav fronl the [,nited S!a.llg!.It lrould also risk Dushingthe oDDonents Statcs,crDanding Russia'sDower in the region and makinq other modelsof Doliticalchangemorc 3lpejdgll In the caseof Azerbaiian this may mean a strenpthcninqof its relationshiD$'ith its neishbor t o t h e s o u t h iI r a n . \litchcll

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Oil - lran Russianinfluenceimpact2l2 A dcmocraticI ran prel entsRussianexpansionism. directorofthc Centerfor Clobal BusincssStudicsin PcnnStatc'sSmealCollegcol and presidentofCaspianEnerg) Consulting 3-5-07 (Fariborzand S. Rob."F-ngage BusinessAdrninistration. s e c u l alrr a n " .C S M . l - e x i s ) j uni,rr journalistsofrcfbrrnistneu'spapets. \\,ithin lran.the youlhswho Dtakeup a majorityofthe population. elericsubo questionthc legitimacyofclcrical rule,and uomcn are a1the forcfronlof delling the ruling naturalaliies.PresidentBushshouldusethe cominglranianNcrr Year rhegcrats. Thel are \\'ashington's thesegroupsand America.A (!\4archl0) to outlinehis visionofcngagenlentand collaborationbetw'ecn s c c u l a ra n d d e m o c r a t i cl r a n u o u l d o n c ea g a i nb c a o a r t n e rw i t h A m e r i c a .u n i t e db v t h e i r m a n l J h a r c d pursuitof*'eaponsofnrass geopoliticalinterestsin the reeion.First.the containnlent ofsaddanl Hussein's of paramountimponance. Arabia arc Kuwait Saudi oil-rich and destructionand his mcnacingpolicl torard it threatens to spreadits brandof be contained, bccause Taliban also must Scconcl.Afghanistan's regime incrcasingll rirdicallslanrinto the energ!-richformerSovietrepublicsin CentralAsia.l'hird, Pakistan's . u s th e c o n t a i n eidn t h e r u c j i c aI ls l a t n i cm o v e m e n \r\.h i c hi s c l o s et o d e c l a r i n igt s c ' l f a nI s l a n l i cs t a t em e o r l t u s t i b l eS o u t h e a A l l s i an u c l e azr o n c .F o u n h .l l a n c a n b c c o m ca s t a b l ec o r r i d o r f o r t h e t r a n s D o r lo f ( - r s n i a no i l a n d q r i l o i n t c r n a t i o n afli a r k e l s .T h e U S ' sr p u l t i D l eD i D e l i n D e o l i c \ ' ! r o u l db e c n h a n c t db \ i n c l u d i n gl r a n , F i f t h .b \ $ o r k i n s t o g e t h e rl.r a n a n d A m c r i c ac a n e n h a n c ct h e s e c u r i t vo f t h e P c r s i a n ( iulf and its massive o i l r e s e r r e sS. i x t h .\ i i l h l r a n a s : t n a r t n c r .i t \ r o u l d b e e a s i e rt o w o r k \ r i t h \ \ a s h i n g t o n ' sa l l i e s- T u r k e t . A z e r b a i i a n a. n d G c o r g i a- t o t h * a r t a n v l i n e c r i n gR u s s i a nc r o a n s i o n i s t tendencies.Irinalll. a secularand democraticlran can be a moderalingforcc in the tenseArab-lsraeli c n V i r o n m e nl tn.d e c da. f r e ea n d d e m o c r a t i cl r a n $ o u l d o u t a n i m m e d i a t ee n d t o t h e f u n d a m c n t a l D r o b l e m sW a s h i n g t o nh a s\ r i t h I r a n : s t a t e - s nnos o r sh i D o f t e r r o r i s m .b u i l d i n gn c a D o n so f m a s s d e s t r u c t i o na. n d a h o l i er - th an - t h o uD o l i c \o n t h e A r a b - l s r a e l ci o n f l i c t .

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h t t p : 'u * * . l i v c l c a k . c o m! i e \ r ' l i = a I I I I 8 8 1 . 1 7 8 8 4 ) I ' u t i na l s od i d n o t h a ! e N o n h K o r c a .C h i n a P . a k i s t arr)rf I n d i ai n l n i n d .n o r B r i t a i n$ i t h i t s a r : i n gn u c l c a r e a p a c i t. )n o t q v q nI s r a e lT. h c o nl Y D o $e r s ur r o u n d i n gR u s s i au i t h \ r c a D o n so f m a s sd e s rt u c t i o nr a s i l s r)ld Cold War foe - thc United States. The cornnrander ol'llussia'sslrategicrockelfbrces.CcncralNikolai \olo\tso\'. $as morc cxplicit.Commcntingon the succ!'ssful tcsl ofthe K65l\'1R at Russia'sKapustinYar sr slunr"cr.rulJupset\lrategic rrrissile that LJSplansfr:rr' .r nrissilc-delense 1c-st site lastApril. he Lieclared .lahilil).IhcplannedscaleoftheLinit{rdStates'depiolnrenroia...nrissile-defcrlses}stcDrissocLtnsidcrrr I)ucl!'irrdel(r'cnceprile'ntiali. o1'Russia's ll)xl lha lcar thal it c()uldhrrc a negati\eelli'cl on the pirraDrL'lL'rs q L r i t c . j L r : t i f i cPdL. "rsr i n r p l l .h e r e l e n e dt o t h e n c ) \ r : o p cln. . l S q u e s ft o r l u l l - r p c e t r L d r norm i n a n t c- n u c l c L t crfWashingtonhas prinrac) A ne$ Armaeeddon i Thc unilatcralmilitarl agcnLla prediclabl)provokcda ntajoreffort b)'Russiato delcnditsell Thc prospectsof a qlobal nuclcar conflagration bv miscalculationincreasebv the da}. At what point mieht a US president.God forbid. decideto order a preemptivefull-scalenuclear attack on Russiato prevent Russiafrom r€buildin{:a state of mutual deterrence?The new Amrageddonis not e\actl) the oneCeorgeW Bush'sChristian lanaticspray for as they dreanroftheir Rapture.lt is an Armageddon in rhich Russiaand thc Unitcd S t a t c s$ o u l d i r r a d i a t et h e p l a n e ta n d . D e r h a D se.n d h u n l a nc i v i l i z a t i o ni n t h c D r o c e s s .

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SOL- Tariffshouldbe lifted Sugar cthanol tariff should be lifted .lell'(.ox. CNNNlone\'.corn contributingrvriter,"sugar caneethsnol'snot-so-s$'eet luture:Despitcenvironmcntal andecononricbcncfits.tradeprotcctionisnl. productionissueslikcl)' to standin the \ra) of Brazilianexponshining 'August t . S .e n e r g ln r a r k ect n r n a s s e . ? 2 0 0 7 : 1l : 2 2 A N I E D T NI:\\' YORK (CNNMonc).conr)-- lmasine a fuel that doesnot cornefron the Middle East. is about si\ limcs more economicalto Droducethan corn ethanol andhasthe potentialto help the environmenl becauseit requircsfeu' chemicalsto grow. Thcn imaginethere'svinualll' no chancesucha thing \aill c\ cr comet01he[JnitedStateS.atleaStinanyapprcciablenumbers.@ cconomicgro\4lh in Brazil. a nation that betweenits oil reservesand the burseonin! ethanol industr\ has attained enerel self-sufficienct,Brazil hasspentbillionsofdollars over decadesofrescarchte devclop thc technolog)1()massproduceethanolliom the millionsofcanc acresthat spreadalongthe SouthAnrericrn landscape. Bot due to a number of factors.rrrim"r! among lhem the simDlelosislicsof not bring able lo gron enouqh(,f thc croD domesticall\.along n ith stringent tariffs aqainstBrazilian sugar cane.that successis unlikely to be replicatedin the U,S, "The reason\re usecom andgrainsin this ctruntq to nraLc llhanrrl i: that'srrhat rre producebest.l( s the casierthing for us to do at the nronrent."saicjNlattlia(\\ ig. spokestnan 1brthe Renc*ableFuelsAssociation. "Thc likelihoodthatcancu jll beconrea hugecthanol lirod\lo!-Lisn'thigh.thoushrou mar seeit in thr'futulc'."_Pit{)lls and potholcs_Brazil didn'tlravean cusr fL[d erthcfin developingits sugarethanolproduction.-Along the \\'a).lhe counln hasseenits sharcsol p i t l a l l s i.n c l u d i n g t h e n r a s se m i s s i o on f q r e e n h o u sgea s e tsh r o u g hb u m i n go f c a n el i e l d su h e n h a r \ e l t i n st h c (r()p.l pfaclicethc gor cinnrenti: uorking to curlail._Brazilalsor\ rcstled\\ ilh lhe blcnd it use's. inl e,icherr tlrc Il5 pr'rccntcthanoiLi perccntqasolinecombinationusedin nrostAnrcricilnilc\ fuelsand usinga 95 p.rc.nl !'ll)anol5 percentadditiVeble'nd.Somee\pcns sa) thq Brazilianformulasel\ even lessgasnileag.' lhJn ils corn crltanolcounterpan.\\ hich itself{ets lorrcr nrileagcgencralllrhangascrlinc.l he counrl also \illfc!'dtoin\cstpcrhapsSlbillion0rmorcininfrastructurcimprovententsorerthcnextfr.$rearstokeep u L r\ \ i l h d c m a n di.r n dB r a z i l h r sh e a p r db i l l i o n si n s u b s i d i ers) ni l s e l h a n opl r o d u c c r st h. o u g hi l h a so \ c r t h r r earsdecrcascrl lhat anlount.But Brazil hasnranaged. probabl\morethanan\ othcrlalion in thc \\orld. .g b o u t1 6 0n r i l l i o nt o c a r \c o u t a t h r i \i n gc l h a n o il n d u s l r l ' t h aetx p o n sm i l l i r r n o s f b u n e ' l as r c a r - i n c l u d i n a ( l l c L l . S . - . i n d p r , . r r i d c s a b o u t a n r i l l i o n j o b s l i r r i t s f e s i dl cn n\ cl ss .r o f ( l c o f g e S o n r ss l i d i n \ l a l ' h r -i'r i r t r e s l i nS g 9 0 0m i l l i o ni n B r a z i l i a n c t h a n o l\.\ h i l c A r c h q ll l r i e ' l y \ ! r , IJn ! ( q l t l n ! . l l r r l u r ) !.1i 0 ( l ) .i n i ( s . u r f i , l r . : 1 n l t l r c r - r t l a s l r r e e k . s a i d i l r r a s c r p a D i l i n g i n t ( ) l l l c n r i tl rhkr ri n l adsu$\ rt lnl .i n l l r a u i cl o L r l d :ur\ c r\ a tenrplalclbr lhe I i.S. and ollters looki lr lo i rplc tcnt \lro|g l)iolireI p|acriccs.!g[g!g91111!!, c o r n l o b b \ ' l o o k i n gt o D r o t c c ti t s c r o Da s t h e D r i l n a r \ c t h a n o ls o u r c c a. n d l h c s u t a r i n d u s t r . \s t a n d i t r g l i q h t g u a r d o \ e r t a r i f l s o n B r a z i l i a ne \ D o r l s ,t h e n o l i o no f c a n cb e i n gu s r d o n a h r o a d \ c a l c i n l h c t , , S . tccms remote at best.

'I'he t;.S.ethanoltariffhas undesir€dethicalconscqucnces A d a n rD e a n . r r p r i l a . 2 0 0 7 . P o l i c \ l n n o v a t i o n A s . p u b l i c a l i o on f t h c C a r n e g iC c o u n c i l(. U n c r h i c aEl t h a n o l 'Iilritl". 'dara'er o l) hlrn:' r u rr .poljo,innovar itlns.orq ideas,'briefings hon Thc ramificationsof thc U.S.ethanollariff disDlavthe ethical conseauences of American trade polic\ . Althoughfiec lradeagreemenls suclras NAFTA hold the pofentialto benefitMexicanconsumers threugh accessto cheapcrgoods.thesebenefitscanbe climinatedbr laternrarketdistortions.suchas the crhanol tarifi In order for Mexicanconsumers to benefitiiom opennlarkets.$te UnitedStatesntustbe cornnlifiedlo a freelradepolic\ thal docsnol distonthe pricc ofbasic conrnrodities suchas com. Likeuise.in ordrr for Brazilian ethanol and sugar producersto benefit from global trade. thcv must be sraotcd tariff-free market accessto the United States.Ifthe United Statesis ro sharethe benefitsofglobalizationuirlr dr.'vclopinc countrjes.il must maintain a commitment to orlenmarlets for foreiqn imDortsand carrfull\ considcrthc elobal impact of its trade policv.

( ' ND t l t 8 - 9 Rcgents

BiofuelsAff 158,?22

SOL- Tariffremovalgets us Brazilianethanol Without market rcstrictions,the US corn-bascdethanolindustrywon't be able to compete n ith technologicallyefficient sugar-ethanol,as large amountsof it are imported hcre from llrazi I ntnrajoring in agricultural cconotnics. srude i: a Ph.D. Zhang, I'edenov, and Wetzstein 2007(ZibinZhang sciencefronr Hohai Unirersitl. is from I-ian1'ungang. JiangsuProvince.China.lle receircdan M.S. in managentcnl 'fexas of AgriculturalLcononlicsal Nanjing.China.Dmitry Vedenovis an AssistantProfessorin thc lJepartment at the Universit)of A&M tJniversir).and MichaelWetzsteinis a ProfessorofAgriculturaland Applied F-conomics (ieorgia."Can thc tJ.S.ethanolindustn,compcte Voluntc Econonrics rnarket?" in the allemativefuels Agricultural l s s u e I P a g c 37 1 0 5 - 1 1 2J,u l y2 0 0 7 ) T h e s er e s u l t s u g c e strh e U . S .c o r p - b a s e e d t b a n o li p d u s t r vi s v u l n e r a b l el o l i m i t - p r i c cc o m D e t i t i o n . $ h i c h c o u l dr e o c c u rT. h e d e n e n d e n cocf c o r n - b a s e de t h a n o lp r i c es o l e l vo n s u n p l Yd e t e r n i n a n t sl i m i t s U.S. ethanol refiners' abilit\ to Dricecompeterr'ith sugar cane-basedethanol refiners.With thc markct restrictionsin the form ofa ban on MTBE and tariffs on imDorts.a \rindor ofoDDortunitr is currentll o D c pf o r t h c U . S ,c t h a n o li n d u s t r \ . H o $ e v e r ,\ ' i t h o u t t h e s er c s t r i c t i o n a s n d q i Y e nt h e h o m o q e n e o u s nroduct nalure of cthanol fuel. [J.S.ethanol refiners!r'ill find it difficult to comDete$'ith lo]rcr Driced sugar-canc-rcfinedethanol.chiefl\'from Brazil. ln a Bertrand-t)'pccompelition.gIgZilI-BgIg technolopicalh c f f i c i e n ts u g a rc a n er e f i n i n go r o c e s su o u l d d u m p l o $ - n r i c c de l h a n o lf u e l o n l o t h e I i . S . r n a r k c ta n d r q u c c z eo u t a n v U . S .c t h a n o lr e f i n e r s m ' a r k c t s h a r e .l f W T O a e r c c m e n t rsc s u l l i n t h c c l i m i n r t i { , no f e r i s t i n gU . S .t a r i f f s .o r i f e t h a n o lr c f i n e r sb e g i nt o t a L €a d \ a n t a g eo f t h c C N r i b b e a n I l a s i nI n i t i a t i \ e d u t \ - f r c c p r o f i s i o n so n e l h a n o li m n o r t s .l o \ r - D r i c e dB r : r z i l i a ne t h a n o l n a \ f l o o dl h e [ ' . S . m a r k e t .B r a z i lc o u l d b c c o m ct h e O P E C o f e t h a n o l .

BiofuelsAff 1591222

cNr)r2k8-9 Regents

SOL- Tariffremovalgets us Brazilianethanol Cost-efficientand clean sugar ethanolproduccd in Brazil is cost-compctitivcin the free market - removing the tariffs allows it to competein the United States JamesHoare.

JebBushtjrges End to Dthanolfariff." Environment& ClimaleNe\\'s.Thc llcanland Inslilute.

8'l06 @.JcbBush(R)onJune5aflermeetingrrithBrazi]'sMinistero1 700nillion Brazilis the !aorld'sleadinsethanolproducer.exporting {qr""lt*.,. R"b.11"R"drigues.

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@h','we,reatapointnowrvhererveneedtodevelopStmtegieSto the UnitedStatesimport l5 billion dff ImpedesCompetition Bushadvocated t"g"r rLrt pr"*rtf

per1'ear currcntl)Buteglglgqaq4! gailons ofcthanolperycarby 2025.up fromonly66 milliongallons abolish the 5J cents-per-gallonimport tax on cthanol before U.S.consumcrscan benefit fror'n nith . u s hs a i d . E t h a n o lc u r r e n t l vh a sa d i f f i c u l tl i m e c o m D e t i n e i n c \ p c n s i v ec t h a n o li m D o r t s B . federalla\ credil. ga-*lin" in th" Unitcd States.Even$ith ethanolbcnefitingftom a 5l cents-pcr-gallon per-gallonpricesofgasolineanddomesticalllproduced.com-basedclhanolarc roughl) equal lloue!er' cthanoldclircrs approximatel)i0 percentfe$'ermilesper gallonrhangasoline.(losl-conlpctll l\ c Altcmativc Brazilian cthanol is made from suqar.ho\\'evcr.and costsbetrieenonc-third and qnc-Ialf b) the chcirp as much as rcgular gasoline.Thc ethanolrnilcagetradeoffis thcrclorcmorclhan compcnsated lreezcsit esscntiall; cthanol tarill on sugar-based priic o1-sugar-based elhanol. But the "5'1-cenl-a-gallon \ r o r l d ' sm o s t h a s l h e " l l r a z i l oulol'lhct:.s.market."notcdaJunelTChicagoTribunehouseeditorial. alcoh.ol efficicnt is a more sugar advanceclethanol industr.|'.and il has a cost adYantagcbccausc h l u n l n i sDl a \ i d \ i c k l a u s i n a J u n el 0 a n i c l e " l l t r l f " " a r t o . k t h a , r c n . n . " o b s e r r c dS t . L o u i sP o s t - D i s p a t c o clhanol. In olher\rord\. our !{,\L'nllllenlis tn inr'rt0 Brazilian tariffon the ii.S. slapsa 5.1-cent-a-gallon its back on a plentil'ulsourceofthem " Added uhile turning fircls. dc\clopnrent of altemative cncouraqe t h eT r i b u n c ". l f t h i s n a t i o ni s s e r i o u sa b o u ta f u t u r c i n w h i c h e t h a n o lD l a r sa n e r e r - g r e a t c r o l e i n . e d u c eo r e l i m . i n a ttch c D o \ r c r i n gc a r s a n d i r u c k s .l e t ' sd o i t i n a $ a v t h a t m a k e ss o m ee c o n o m i cs c n s eR iubsidiesand tariffs. and let'sfind out ifethanolcanrealll bccomea credible.conpetiti!e altenratiretcr sasolinc\rithoutthe ledcrallargessthathasproppedup the industrl lbr dec,idcs.Let lhc nlostcconottric c o m e sa t a c o s tt ( l c t h a n oul i n . " " T h e t a r i f f D r o t e c t st h e d o m e s t i ce t h a n o li n d u s t r \ ' .B u t t h a t D r o t e c t i o n consumers.cspccialllthosein stalcssuchas l'cxas."the SanAntonio ll\prcss-Ne\\sagreedin a l\'la} 23 . t h a n o cl u r r e n t l \ c o s l sm o r e D c r h o u s ee d i t o r i a l . I , r i c e sI i i g h i n M i d u e s t W i t h t h c t a r i f f i n p l a c e e g r o $ s . oLtth g a l l o nt h a n g a s o l i n ce v e ni n D l a c e w K E r , l e n t i f u l h . L O - T V i n S i o u xF a l l s S s h e r ec o r n more thanregular gallon--fir e cents a $as at l3 cthanol selling 52.85 I)akota.for e\anlple.rcportedon June of bein! a benefit *ith the addcd markct. ir e in thc frce cost-com "Ethanot is becoming netit itasolinc. SciencD c i r , - ' c t oJ ra 1l - c h rs a i d ." B u t c s s e n t i atlo c l c a n e r - b u r n i n fgu e l t h a n g a s o l i n e .l"l e a n l a n dI n s t i l u t e ''lffrecmarhets f r c e - m a r k e ct o m D e t i t i o ins t h c e l i m i n a t i o no f D r o h i b i t i \ ea n d p r o t e c l i o n i stta r i f f s . a r c a l l o * e d t o o o e r a t e I. b e l i e v ee t h a n o *l i l l u l t i m a t e hp r o v e1 ob c a f u c l o f c h o i c ei n A m e r i c a . "s a i d l-ehr.

Biofuels Aff 1601222

C N D I2 K 8 - 9 R!-gcnts

SOL- Tariffremovalgets us ethanol US encrgl'sccuriqand cthanolimportsfrom Brazil Removingtrade barriersincrcases 'Deal Pagc: I'g.92Vol 82No Financial S\\eeteners ThcNewYorker 27.2006 Suro$.ieckiNovenrber Jancs -lo

a: . ' i' . il-f campaignedin supportof the tarifl-andthc sugarquolasappear to be as sacros,lrrL{ c, in8bccau.set/l crc'atca licious circle of bacA--ssral arc crlrcnrel.r ?rrrdk) gcl riJ of. once establis,hed. ,..1(r\tutu)cnt largesse nrsanstltatsugarproducersget rrealthr.giringthenrlots ofcash ro lo\s cl nl(ntber\L,f ( o n g f c . sr. r h ot h e nh a v ea n i n c c n t i v teo i n s u r et h a tt l r el a r g c s sceo n l i n u etso l l o r r -l t l o r ci n t p o r t a n t . prolectionistnrle: flourishbecause amonga snallnumbcr ol easl-to-identili the bcnclltsarc concentratcd rrinncrs.rrhrli the c05t:are sprcadout acrosslhc cntirepopulation.11mal he rnn.'rtnr:t.l pa1a fc* nrorc ccnrslbr sLrg.rr or cthanol.but mostofus arc unlikell to Iobb) Congressaboutit. lVa)bc rte should.though. (Jur.Lrrfenipo!ier is atrsuldcle'nby'Washingtonstandards: Congressis pal ing billionsin subsidi!'slo gel u5 thal $ c'll uselcss.And $ llile lo usentorecthanol.$hilc kecpingin placetariffsand quotasthatguarantce rnosroflhe time rarill-sjusrnrcanhigher priccs and reduccdconrpetition.!!-.lll!-q3lgqlgllh3!d-jlgi!g3.1[]! cffcctsarc considerablvgreater.leaving us saddlcd$'ith an infcrior and lessenere\-efficicnt e f t h c e t h a n o l a r i f f s .$ e ' r c t c c h n o l o q \a n d a s d e p e n d e nat s e v e ro n o i l - r , r o d u c i n cqo u n t r i e sB. e c a u s o i m D o s i n ql r r e s o n f u e l f r o m c o u n t r i e st h a t a r e f r i e n d l \ t o t h e U . S . .b u t n o t a r a l a l l o n f u e l f r o m justif the barrierslo lbreign countriesthat are anlonq our mosl vehemcntoDDonents. Congressnen But horr is the tl,S. more sccurerrhen it has to imporl oil fronl cthanol rrith tall of "c'nc'rgy' securit_v." Vcnczuelarathrr than ethanol from Brazil? Thcsetariffs are bad econorpicDolic). bad ettcrg\ Dolic\. and bad foreign nolicr'.Talk abouty'ourl)orninoefl'ect.

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SOL- Tariffremovalgood for US industry lmporting Brazilian ethanol encouragesdomesticproduction lluild lslands Sparks a lloon in Caribbcrn: I;ncrglrl:rhanolIarill l.oophole Wall Strect Journal 3-9-07 ( Alremarirc I'lnntsli) I)rocc\s Ilrazil'sI:uelrFamrBcltCries|oul". I i 66&RQI' i 09&V\ am. PQI)) I l&sid=6&l:rnt=l&clicntld= htlp:"proqucsl.umi.comtpqds cb?did"I 2295815 Rrazil would bc ethanol kine. and thc U.S. politics ln a $orld taithout trade barriers andtrade \rould be importins Brazilian fuel far more hea\ il\. stoking production further in turn. With €fficienl Brazil canproducccthanolfor as litlle as 80 cenlsa galion. sugar-cane productionand chemicalprocessing. rvhomainll convertcornto makethe fuel. Sugarcancis a lessthanhalfthe price of U.S. ethanolproducers. morc quickly into alcohol.But the 54-centtariff, on top olbcttcrm\\ materialfor ethanolbecauseit f-ermenls Thcreareexceptions:In the summer thc costofshippingto the U.S.,uipes out much ofthe price advantage. of2006. rhe U.S. pricespikedenoughthat Brazilianproducersthatreactcdquickll mademonel cxpoding l a r g eq u a n t i t i etso t h e U . S . .d e s p i t c t h lca r i f f E n c o u r a g i n em o r e i m p o r t so f f o r e i g ne t h a n o lw o u l d d r i \ c do*n Dricesand likely boostthe American market furthcr. While the 5,1-centtariff earll on cncouraqedthe U.S,domesticindustr\,.nolv it has becomecounternroducti!e.contendsRobefi llo\\\c. ll rradce\pcn at the Inremational Food& AgricultureTradc Policl Council.an adrocacl groupsponsorcd l a r g e l rb r a e r i c u l t u r a co l n r p a n i e"sl -f $ e u a n t c d t o a c h i e v et h c c n c r q r g o a l si n l h c U . S .r T eu o u l d d i s a s s c n l ba l el o t o f t h e p r o t e c t i o n i sDt o l i c i e s .h" e s a ) ' s .

I{emovingtrade barrierson cthanolsolveseconomt I-arr1llohtcr June13.2008 Thc i.'vcuYork.l'imes"ObarnaCamp(iloscll l.jnked\\'ith I:tharol" 'u politics'l3ethanol.html'l r:1&pageuanted-I &paflner-r http:r ri ri .nr1imes.com,i2008i 06i'l,1hsi ssn\t&cmc rss&orel slogin \ l a n \ c c o n o m i s t sc.o n s u m e ar d v o c a t e se.n \ i r o n m e n t a cl \ D c r t sa n d t a \ g r o u D Sh a v cb e e nc r i { i c a lo f morc thansnrallfannel-.. conqlonrerates corn cthanol progranrsasa boondogglethatbenclitsagribusiness r i s e n s h a r p l Y i n t a n d e m$ i t h o i l D r i c c s T h o s ec o m D l a i n t h r e c e n t l va s c o r n D r i c c sh a v e sareintensified e t h a n o l a n d c o r n n o r m a l l \ u s e df o r f o o ds t o c kh a sb e c nd i v c r t e dt o D r o d u c t i o n".l f \ o u \ r a n t l o t a k c s o m eo f t h e D r e s s u r oe f f t h i s m a r k e t ,t h c o b v i o u st h i n g t o d o i s l o $ e r t h a t t a r i f f a n d l e t s o r n cB r a z i l i l n r t h a n o lc o m c i n . " s a i dC . | o r d R u n g ea. n e c o n o m i sslp e c i a l i z i ni g n c o n r m o d i t i casn dt r a d ep o l i c l a t t h c Ccntcrlbr International |ood and Agricultural['olicy at thc t-lni\ersit]ot lllinnesota. But onc ofthc t i n d a n r e n t ar ei a s o r sb i o l u c l sp o l i c l i s s o o i r to 1 - \ ! h a c$ki t h m a r ' l , c a t sn dr e a l i t yi s t h a li n t e r ! ' sgtr o u pp o l i t i t s hare becDso dominantin thc consrructiorl of thc subsidicsthat supponit." Com ethanolgeneralcslessthan t*o rinitsol'cnerg) lirr ercn unit ol encrgruscd10produccit- *hilc the enereyralio ibr sugarcanc is tnore l h i t nS l o l . \ \ / i l h l o \ \ e rp r o d u c t i ocno s t sa n dc h e a p elra n dp r i c c si n t h ct r o p i c acl o u n t r i ersr h e r ei l i s g r o $ n . \ullr care is a rnoreefllcicntsourcc.

SOL- Tariffremovalsolvesfood and gas prices Inrporting ethanol lowersgas and food prices Baltimore Sun_Ot :-08 1'srazilturnsto sugar caneto makccthanol' h t t p : ,$ u r v . b a l r i m o r e s u n . cnoemw s l n a t i o n , b a l - t e . b r a z i l I 5 j u n 1 5 , 0 , 3 6 6 4 1 6 5 . s t o n ? p a g e = 1 ) j.rlgl[glq!, vilified as a causcof soaringfood prices and hunger.934 COS1A RICA. Brazil - IIS jlt! j4lk be seenin Brazil. where farmers are Dushirq down energvcosts- both at the purnpand at lhe cleclricit) rncter. proiectput togcthcrb) destinedfor fuel tanks acrossthe world. It's the startofa $2.7 billion ethancrl hc) Brazil ReneuableEnergyCo.,or Brenco,a privateventureilnancedby U.S.and Brazilianinvestors.-'l plrn 1oexpon a billion gallonsoi ethanola l ear by 20l 5 - enoughfuel lo offseldemandfor 65.000banel: a dar ofoil._About150 milesto the east,in ficlds sunoundingthc toun ol'Floresde Coias.a Iirm from lrving. 'lrLrEncrgr 1e'ras. RenewableFuels,is puningtogethera 55l.l nrillionethanolprojectthatcould offset8.100 balrelsa da},ol'oil demand._With rvorldoil consumption runningat 86 million barrelsa dar',the ethanol produccd G.l o b a le t h a n o l b 1 t h e s el u o p r i v a t c ' c o n r p a n$i ei l sl a n l o u n lt o a n o d e s ta l t e m a t i vceo n t r i b u t i o n n r o d u c t i o n h. o w e r e ri.s a l r e a d vg r e a t e rt h a n t h c r c a r l r i n c r e a s ei n n o r l d o i l d e m a n d .W i i h o u t e t h a n o l , high oil pricesnould be higher still. "Demandlor oil is increasing eveq rear. bul re:errcsarc rrr)reand nroredifilcult to find." saidBrcncofoundcrI lcnri PhilippeReichstul.a fornrcrhcadof Brazil'sPctrobrasoil c o r r l a n ) ." W e h a \ . ea n a l t e r n a l i v et h a t i s a l s ot h c f a s t e s\tr a r o f r e d u c i n g\ o u r c m i s s i o n fsr o m c a r s '\\ilhoulchanPinPanlthinp."Icsard"'loniu.Ill{)ol\]rLeano-brlrner'slrll.olhcrssa\clhanolad!ocatcs.trrdfl\r'l!drur)1, l l r ( ) l u . l \ - c i p c c i a l l \ c o m - b i i s c dc l h a n r )nl r 3 d eI n l h c I n r t c dS l a l c . - a r c u n d c rr t r r c l l o f r n l l x r n g l ( x t n ( c c \ . d c j t r o l r n g r r l n l o r ( n . J.|]etii]!\rtLlsUplJlcstlnd]nclc6In8po||ulldn , ) i lr f ! . u f i 1 ] $ { h l o { ) d i n \ . c u n t ! ' l c \ a - \ R r p u b l i r . l n s ( j o \ R i c l [ ) c r n : r n dS c f R i l ! I ] i r l e \ I l u t c h i \ r rh r \ c L r r l f d r h . I ] u . h

: r ! l l , u . h \ l ( , l l O n c - l i ) u f hr t t h c t . S l o r . r o p n o \ r g o c \ 1 0 . l h , ' l . a n d c o r l p i c . s a r c \ o h i g h t h r i r ( t h i r n Lftr o d u . c r . r r . nro!!:r$! (. nlll! n\rn. 'l-rullrrlgr (r((lIsL]r\sr'Il.ic\\ahlelncr!\Croup Intcslorsin Brazil arc turning to sugar cane. Rrcnco Jnd aru

planlinsin 13razilian cal1lepasturcsand sa1the) aren'tcrowdingout grainproducers.The trro conrpanies' sugitfcaneplaDtations are nrorethan 1.000milessouthoflhe Anrazonforesl.\\'herehigh rainlall makc: \usir cirncln uneconorlicalcrop.(Plantslrcsscrealeslhc su!:ar.so il periodol dloughtmakc'slor thc best . u g a fc r n e ). " E t h a n o li n t h e [ ] . S .h a ss t r u g g l e da l o t b e c a u s e I h c h i g h D r i c eo f c o r n c r e a i c sa l o t r ) f f o o d \ s , - l u c lD r e s s u r e s s, "a i dT i m L a \ e n d e r .D r e s i d e not f T r u E n e r g \ . " S u q a rc a n ed o c s n ' th a \ c t h a t . " lithirnol frorp sugar cane could lorr€r food prices.Lavendersajd.FcderalReserveChainran Bcn S. llcrflanke sa\s foreign elhanol can take the Dressurcoff the L;.S.corn croD and has recommendedthat C o n g r e s sd r o p 5 j - c c n t s - a - g a l l ot na r i f f o n B r a z i l i a ne t b a r o l .B r a z i l i s e x n e c t i n qg l o b a ld e m a n df o t - i t s " ( (rnrfrntcs

ethanOl l{) 5urge. h a \ c a n n o u n c c dp l a n sI a r l ) e t h a n o lp l : r n l s l l c m 3 l i { r n . liln ! c i r r s a r c s o ( , c \ l . c r ( t l r ( , , r . c ( ' u n rt i , r r \ ' ) r ! t h i t n I S l ) ! r c c n to l B r a , . rsl c l h a n o ip r u d u c l i o nS l a n r n gI n S e p t e m b c rl.r u l i n r r g ! p l a n \ l o h u i l d t h r e ce l h a n d p l a n t sr n l h . I l r a z r l i a n ' l n l c \ ' l ( i , ' r a : l h c \ \ r l l h c t ( d h \ f a m l c r ! p f ( n n r . i n cN E l r . ) \ \l { 8 1 ) 0 0 i r c r r t o l \ ! 3 a r L j n n ( L a ! r n d c r \ a t d h e h d \ l r n e dL r pc n g r n e c n n ! a n J o l c r a l r o n 5c o n l p a n r e sa. t a r n r c r sc' { ) - o pa n d a p ( N p c c t r \c i l i e n t - t h c c ( r o r r o J j t t c .t r a d r n gi r n ( ' f ( ; . r 7 p r { n nI.l u r s r xs g i u n r! n c r i n n l p . r r \ l l c \ l i l l n c c d s c a p r l ai )l u L n e r g \ l p r i n c r p r l s h a \ c $ . l m r l l r o n i n \ c s t . d r n l h c d e d l a n d h o p c t o l l n d B r a T r l i a n r n \ c t l ( n s ! l | l l r n e l n p u l l n S l S l ) n r i l l x ) n .I a \ e n d c rs 3 i d l h e t o t a lc o s to f l h c p r ( ' j c c tL rc \ t r n a t c d a t S S l . l $ i l l i o $ . R c i c h s l u t 'pr i l n n e r i r n . l i i J r \ u D N l r c t o \ v s l ! m \f o u n d e r\ ' r n o d K h o s l a . { O L f o u n d e rS l e \ e C a s ea n d C a l r f o m r as u f c m i a r k c tn t a g n a r eR o n a l dI l u r k l e .\ h o h i . Lasn r r r ! f i l r n e n tp a d n c r : h r p$ r t h B i l l a n d l l r i i a l , C h n t o n ( l l r a D c os a \ s l h e C l i n l o n ! a r c n o r d r r c c lI n \ e s t o r si n r h c c o m p a n \ ) [ h c I ] r e n c 1 ' r r ) t e s l ( r rhsa \ r n s s e m b l c 5 d 2 a l om r l l i o n , b r ( h e i rp r o j e c t l h c \ l l a n r o c u l l i \ a t e9 8 8 . 0 0 ( r) c r c \ o f \ u g a r c a n ca l t h r c . n l a r a r i o n \ .i n c l u d r n : L ' n eo ! l j i d c t h r l o u n o f a o s l a R r c a .I l r e n c oa n d l r u l n e r g ) s a ) t h e \ c a n g c n e r a l ea l l l | e e l c c t r i c i 0t h e ] $ i l l n c e dh v b u f t r n . rt h e \ u s a r c x n c i t a v c i a r d d e p l e t c ds l a l I s .q i t h c n o u g hI e f , o v e r f o r a ! ( , l l { a b l c $ d c b u \ i n c s rs t l l i n g p o \ r r i o B r a , l ' s l ) r i l i l i c \ I h 0 i D r c n ] r r o r r r j c l h a n i ) lm i r r k e lr s t r n ! c o n p a J e dr i l h t h a t f o r o i l a n dg a s o l r n eU. i t h p r c r l ) m u c h o n l ) a d o m c s t i cm a r l e t . B r a r ; l i a l lp r ( ) d u e e rr\\ p r t l l \ d e f r r j . c t h 3 n o lp r r c c s* h . f l $ c r l h c ) b r n g a p l a n t r D l oo p c r a l i o ns, a i d N 4 a r c oJsa n k .p r c s i d r n to f l h c B r a r r l S l S a r C a n c I n d o s r n

,\\rociitrron. Brazil oroduces5.8 billion qallonsa vear ofethanol but eroorts a m€re 960 million galtons.A unir,ersit;studvdonelastyearfor the MinistryofScienceand TechnologY foundthat Brazil w,ouldbe capablcofsupplf ing thc \\orld with 52 billion gallonsa year- 1..1million banelsa day,-if an addirional59.5 hillion *ert investedin pipelines,terminalsand new planls.More than 100countriescould turn susar cane into fuel for the internationxl market, Ja$k said. ,{boul 20 nationsdominatethe often shakr i n t e r n a t i o n aol i l m a r k e t .

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SOL- Tariffremovalsolvesgas prices Remoring lhc lariff lorrers gaspricer ('Fuelpricccrunch Oil and GJas.lournal fix:Lilicthanol crcdit". -1-l-06 lariffand hltp:'proqucst. 309&VName'PQD) umi.comipqdueb?did1012161561&sid-6&Fnrt=3&clientld= 1566&RQl B u l e t h a n o lc a p a c i t vi s n ' t c o m i n so n l i n c f a s te n o u s ht o c o u n t e rt h i s \ e a r ' s r a D i dr e m o v a lo f M T B E . n hich rcfiners rant to hal e out of the sl'st€n bt' the slart of thc driving scason.l he reason:Congress last \ear reiccted limited liability orotectionfor makersand sellersofMTBE. \rhich has appearedin \rater supplies.Iracingbig legaljeopardy,refinersare sheddingMTBE fast.EIA secsproblemsthis year becaLrse ol volunrelosscsfrom llrc replacemenl ofMTBE wilh cthanol.lin)itson ethanolcapacity.and dilllcultics gctting ethanol storage,blendine!.and transports!'stemsin pla.c. S!.pd!gg!']!gll!!!!-gll!&pl!! arc alailable in trade. But most imDortedethanol comeswith a s,l(lqal tariff atoDa normal dutY based 14p-11lgqDonrcsticalhproducedgrainethanolblcndedinto gasolinereceivesa 5l c'gal tax credit.Ethanol supportars \i\ thetarilTkccpsLIStaxpal'erstiorn providingan inccntiretuice for thcir product.U'ith state incenlilcsaddingto the Iedcraltar creditplusthc ne\\ volumerricnandate.theserhingsdo to add up. !g \ r h N t ' st o b t d o n ea b o u tc o n s u m egr a s o l i n eD r i c r sl h i s \ c a r i f E I A ' s f e a r sc o m et r u c ? A r c a d \ f i r i s t o lifl the tariff on elhanol imDorls.Then.\rhr-thero!' DolredundaDl inccntircs arc tht' problcnrclhanui gasolinp c r i c c s$ l r c r s u l l p o n e rssa i t h e ) a r r . l h e n e \ r t h i n gt o g o s h o u l dt r ct h cr a r c r c d i t .\ \ ' i t l rr r h o l e s l l e rhe\ arc.elhiinolproduccrsdonr neeclit.

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SOL- Tariffremovalprovesalt to oil Rcducingthe cthanol tariff providesa cheapand efficient alternativeto oil Tariff'. Lndto Ethanol lloare."JcbfJush Urges Environment & Climatc News8-l-06(James http:,\\ $ \\ .heartland.orglAnicle.c thr?artld 19470) The federal governmentshouldabolish its tariff on imDortedethanol to make oossiblean affordable alternativs (o foreiqn oil. urgedFloridaGov. JebBush(R) on June5 aftermeeling$jth Brazjl'sNtinisterot Agriculture.RobentrRodrigues. Brazil is the world's lcadins ethanol producer.exporling700 million sugar-based elhanoleachyear." We don'l pul a tarilTon crudeimportedfront a uallonsof inexpensive, countn,like Venezuela. but _vel$e put a lariffon glll4lqL $hich is a renewablesourceofenerqv that to orovidesa clean att€rnatile." explainedBush."We'rea( a poinl now whererveneedto devclopstrategics beginthat process."TarifflmpedesCompetitionBushadvocatedthe UnitcdStatesimport l5 billion gallons ol'cthanolper ) ear b\' 2025,up liom onlv 66 million gallonsper )ear currentl).BLrtCongrcssmu5t abolish thc 5,1cents-Der-eallon imDort tar on cthanol beforc Lj.S.consumcrscan benelit from inerncnsiye rrilcd . u s hs a i d . e t h a n o li m D o r t s B pcr-gallon prices of Eren $ith cthanol from cents-per-gallon federal tax credit. States. benefiting a 5l produced.corn-bascdelhanol arc roughl) ,Jqual.Horve'ver. tlhanol dcli\ers usoline and dornesticall_\ e Altcrnativc'Braziliarr apDrorimatel\ 30 Dercentfelier milesDergallon than rlasoline.Cost-Comp€tit;\ f s m u c ha s r e e u l a r c t h a n o li s m a d ef r o m s u g a r .h o $ e v e r .a n d c o s l sb e t $ e c no n e - t h i r da n d o n e - h a l a g a s o l i n eT. h e e t h a n o lm i l e a g et r a d e o f fi s t h e r e f o r em o r e t h a n c o p p e n s a l c db v t h e c h c a Dp r i c c o f !ugar-hasedethanol.But the "54-c€nt-a-gallontariff on suqar-bascdethanol esscntiallvfreczesit out o f t h e L l . S .m a r k e t . "n o t e da J u n el 7 C h i c a e oT r i b u n eh o u s ee d i t o r i a l".B r a z i lh a st h e$ o r l d ' sm o s la d \ a n e c i r'lhanolindustn. and it hasa cosladvanlagcbecauscsugaris a nrorcefficjcnlalcoholfeedslockthancomo t r s c r r eS d t . L o u i sP o s t - D i s p a t c rhr l u n r n iI:)t : r ,i,d N i c k l a u si n a J u n el { ) a n i c l e . " t s u r t h a t ' . S . s l a p s a - 5 J ccl11-3ga|]ontarill.onBraziliirncthanol-lno1heIword5.@ d c \ e l o p n r e not f a l t e r n a t i v cf u e l s .u h i l c t u r n i n s i t s b a c l o n a D l e n t i f usl o u r c eo f t h e m . " A d d e l lt h e car. l r i h u n t ' -" l i t h i sl a l i o n i r s e r i ( r uasb o u ta f u t u r ei n s f i i c h e l h a n opl l a l s a n e v e r - g r e a treo' lrc i n p o r r t ' r i n g andtrucks.|et'5doi(inarr,a1tha1mal'c:somecconoIllicscnse.@ tariffs. and lct'sfind out ifethanolcanrealll becomea crcdible.competitivealtemativcto gasoline\\ ilhout l h c i e d e r al a r g c stsh a th a sp r o p p e du p t h c i n d u s t r fyo r d e c a d c sL.c t l h e m o s te c o n o m i ce t h a n o l\ v i n . "" I h e cspcciaill tniiffprotectsthe,.lirnrcslic ethanolinduitn. tsutlhal protectionconre5al a cosl to consunrers. t h o s ci n s l a t e s u c ha s I c r a s - "t h eS a nA n r o n i ot x p r e s s - N o r sa g r c e di n a M a r l i h o u s ce d i t o r i a lP. r i c c s c v e r ri n p l a c i . l l l g h i n \ 1 i d $ e s tU i t h t h c l a r i f f i n p i a c L e' .t h a n ocl u r r e n t l c\ o s l sn r o r ep e rg a l l o nt h a ng a s o l i n e * hercconr lrorr s plentifulli. KLI-C)-TVin Siour t alls.SouthDakola.for eranrple.reponedoD.lLrne1.1 cthanoluas scllingat $2.85a qallon--1lvc centsnorc rhanrcgulargxsoline._1E!bg!q!j!bg!g!Li!glg$: comDctilivein the free market. *ith the addedbenelitofbeing a cleancr-burning fuel lhan gasolinc." l l ! ' a r l l a n dI n s t i t u t S is lhc c ciencD e i r c c t o Jr a r l , e h rs a i d ." B u l e s s e n t i at o l f r e c - m a r k c ct o m D e l i t i o n c l i m i n a t i o no f D r o h i b i t i v ea n d r r r o t e c t i o n i st at r i f f s ," l f f r € e m a r k e t sa r e a l l o w c dt o o p e r a t c .I b e l i c \ . ethanolu ill ultinratelyproveto be a t'uelofchoice in America," said Lehr.

lliofuclsrcducecarbonemissions and could make the US oil independent Addison publishesthe CleanFlcetRepon 5-14-08 (John, 'Bioiuel lnnovatorswith Alternati\'es to Oil . hlll): \\'\r1\.clcantcch blog.corn'2008i05i/biofuel-inno\ ators-\\'ith-a ltemati\ cs-to.htm i) Biofuelshave the Dotentialto Drovidesolulionsfor encrg\ securit} and transDortation}rith a much smaller carbon footDrint.Other solutionsinclude reduction in solo drivins du€ to urban densitYand corporate programs,Dublictransit. more fuel efficient vehicles.and the shift to electricYehiclesthat rcquire no fossilfu€l or biofuel,The nen biofu€lshate th€ potcntial to encourasesustainablc rcforestingand soil enrichment.Biofuel 2.0 Droyidesa oath to fuel from wood and waste.not food and haste,

B i o f u e l sA f f ) 65!222

CNDI ]K8-9 Rc!tcnts

SOL- Ethanolsolvesoil dependence economic strengthening Incrcascdcthanolconsumptionreducingoil dependenct'and actili{' (ior'.Hocven "Toda1 oi North in Biofuels Opinion: of NonhDakora. Hocven,Mary' 26, 20081loln.Senator Dakota.Sen.Lugarof Indiana"BiofuelsDigesl.Ma1'26. 2008.lexis ) (;o\ . John I locvenof Nonh Dakota:A"'l'heDthanolnlandateis good for thc nation.Currcntly.the LJnilcd Statesinlpo(s ncarl) 60 percentof its fuel.-lhiscreatesa challengcnot onl)'ofcost. but alsoofdcpentlcncl on unstablcfirrcign sourcesofpetroleum. l-I9-!9!g:l!9lg!-!qlglli!Ug high fuel prices at the pump and rcduccddependencton foreign suonliesis not to reduceconsumntionof biofuels.bul to incrcasesuDDlv from all sources.inrluding ethanol.Biofuelsboost America's rural economiesand helDto contributc to t h e n a t i o n ' ss u D D ho f t r a n s D o r t a t i ofnu e l s ,T h c v c r e a t ei o b sa n d s t i m u l a t ee c o n o m i ca c t i v i l \ i n r u r a l A m e r i c a .u h i l e r e d u c i n go u r d e n e n d e n covn o i l p r o d u c e di n u n s t a b l ep a r t so f t h e w o r l d . R c s e a r c hi s rrndrr nar. ntoreoverr..lg help the industDproducc fucl from increasinglvlcsscxDensilr malcrials so ihal source!.I glljllg sonrcdalrre rr ill bc nranufacturing ethanollionr srritchgrassandolhcr moreec(rnonlical back the cl()ckon renerrablefuels nrakcsno sens€.\\rc nrustcontinucto enhanccproduction.5upp(rrt a n d s c c u r i t \ d c D e n do n f c \ a a f c ha n dl t r o n r o ttch c u s eo f e t h a n oal n do t h c rb i o l i r c l sO. u r n a t i o n ' sc c o n o n r Y it

('NDl 2k8-9 Regcnls

BiofuelsAlf l66'222

SOL- Ethanolsolvesoil dependence Remoring tariffs soh'csenergl' problemsin the transportation sector Luft E x e c u t i v le) i r e c l o ro f t h e I n s t i t u tfeo r t h e A n a l ls i so f C l o b a lS e c u r i 0 l 0 - 2 0 - 0 5 ( D r . G a l . . ' A n r c r i c a s o i l depcndcncc and its implicationsfor LI.S.Middle L-astpolic)." I010.pdf). hup: 'wllrv.scnalc.gov,/l estinrony05 lbreign,ltestimony/2005/l.uft While there is no alternativc to deDendence on Middle Easternoil. ther€ arc clearlv alternativesto oil. Darticularh in the transDortationsector.wherc t$o-thirds of U.S.oil is consumed.America needsan out-of-the-barr€lenerey polic\',one that will sradually diminish thc role of oil in n'orld polifics.ID! U.S.should embark on an acceleratedshift. enabledbv mod€rn iechnologv.toward an econonrybased onindigcnous11'producedncXt.generationfue!s.meaning@ such |nethanol.ethanol.biodi€sel.electricit\ and othersderivedfrom abundantdomesticenergyresources ascoal. biomass.and municioal waste.ln Brazil etharlolmade from sugar cane accountsfor a( least 25olnof the liquid fuel usedin most cars. Manr cars run on pure ethanol.As a result sugar cane clhanol comDrises409/0of Brazil's fuel needsand the country is movinp raDidlv to$ard energv a n d a l c o h o l ss u c ha s i r d e D e n d e n c eF,l c x i b l ef u e ll ' c h i c l e sc a n r u n o n a n v c o m b i n a t i o no f g a s o l i n e c t h a n o la n d m e t h a n o lN s i n c e1 9 9 6a n d . e a r l \ f o u r m i l l i o nf l e x i b l ef u e l c a r s h a v eb e e nm a n u f a c t u r e d a r e a l r e a d \ o n t h e r o a d .t h o u g hm a n Yo f t h c D e o D l d e r i v i n g t h e m d o n ' t e v e nk n o $ t h e i r c a r s c a n tolcrate other fucls.The marginal additional cost associatedrr ith the production of a flexible fucl l chiclc is curr€ntl\ under Sl50 -- lessthan the cost o[ a t\ DicalCD pla\er. Tbat cosl ri ould bc rcduce(l fu rther as the r olune of Droduction of such cars increascs.Sincenrostol the flexiblefuel carssold in Brazil aremadeb1 Arncricanaulo manufaclurers like Fordand GM thercis no rcasonuhv everyncu car s o l di n t h c L r . S s. h o u l dn o t h a l e s u c hf u e lf l c \ i b i l i t \ .W i t h o u t d o u b t .a s l o n ga s c o r n i s t h e m a i n f e e d s t o c L u s c dt o f i a k e e t h a n o lt h e d o m e s t i ce t h a n o li n d u s t r \ ! r i l l n c v c r b e a b l c t o s u p p l ! t h e n e e d so f ( h e U - S . transDortationsector.ln the coming)ears ifthe productionofcthanolform cellulosicmaterialbeconles conrnrerciali!fcasibleit couldadd significantamountofethanol into the transponation fucl market.Bul until thc technolc'g)is readl for deplolnrcntthc ti.S. n ill have io relr on its sugar grou ing neighborsin I-atin America. Suear c{ne is bv far the nlost cfficient croD for ethalol Droductionbut todar stiffimoort tariffs imnoscdbt Congressnrevent large scaleimnorts ofsugar cane e(hanol.To strengthenenergv s e c u r i t !C o n g r e s sa n d f r e et r a d e c h a m D i o nm s u s t o p c n t h c U . S .e t h a n o lm a r k e tt o i m o o r t s .l l s i m D l \ d{)csnot lllale sepseto tar cthallol comip! in frorp our neiphborswhcp $e do nol lar oil imDorted f r o m S a u d iA r a t t i a .M e t h a n o li s a n o t h c ra l c o h o lt h a t c a n b e u s e di n f l e \ i b l ef u e l r e h i c l e sl.o d a ) . t h i s liquid 1uelis producedmostlytrornnaiuralgas.Creaily expandeddomesticnroduction can be achic\ed. l ) r r \ \ e v e br .\ D r o d u c i n gm e t h a n ofl r o m c o a l .a r e s o u r c et h e U , S ,h a si n a b u n d a n c eT. h e c o m n r e r c i a l f e a s i b i l i t \o f c o a l - t o - m c t h a n oale c h n o l o sh\ a sb e e nd e m o n s t r a t eads D a r to f t h e D e D a r t m e not f I:ncrgr's *clcan coal" technologveffort. Currentl),.ntethanoli5 beingcleanl-v.' producedliom coal at a comnrcrcialscalefbr around50 centsa gallon.Methanol can also be oroduccd from agricultural nastc.

Sugarcaneis the most effectiveresourcefor producing cthanol publishesthe CleanFleetReport 5-14-08 (John.''Biollel Innoratorsu'irh Alternativerro Oil'. Addison htlp: "u.w1i'.c leantechblog.com/2008105rbiofuclinnovators-with-altenratives-to. html) Sugarcaneis the currentlv thc rnostefficient fe€dstockfor larger scalcethanol Droduction.W[ih corn cthanol dclivers little more energYoutout than the total €nergYnccessarvlo gro$, Drocess.and transport it: suqarcaneethanoldeliverseipht times the eners\ outDut as lifecvcleenerg\ inDut. Also, rugarcanet\ DicallvDroducesttr ice as much fuel Dcr acre as corn.

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r g r i e u l t u r r l f e e d . r o c k .r t h i c h i n m . r n r . . r . c . c o n r p c t c j-n!errjirrionall\'\\'ith suhsidi'cd nroductsJ S u g l r c a n e t ' t h a n o l i s a r e n c * , a b l c b i o f r . r c sl j t h h i g h * - c l l - r o , s h e e l c n c r s \ r f l l . r e n r r ' .T h c R r . , ' i l i , n A I . I R O . C L C O O L \ \ \ ' a sI h E f i ' . r " - i ' h lJrr<jn rural scalc biofucl programmc in rhc \ri)rld, l!!!Il!llg delclofrnent, dilcrsillcation of encrgl. sourccs, l!\\rr d c p e n J c n . co n ^ i l r r n 1 ' o n . .r r ' J u c l r u ni n I n . a l r o l l u t " n r . f r . r D tchiclc cxh.ru.t.. .rnd net r, du, rr,'n. in t-'Hil Tcrrrli'u', ca\ ' ( n . r \ \ r ' , n \ l l \ r . . r \l n ) f ' l c r n c n l c dl n l a ; 5 l . ' r ( l l J c c I r r . c c . o r r r n g r n r p e r r t c Jo i l . f i r r r r n t l r c l o r n t o l f n . r n i f ^ l i c t e l l ' l r c d t o f u e l ' L a r c r i n r h c m i d - 1 0 8 0 . .r r r o J u , r r u rirn . r . i r , r r i c n J f u c l p r i c c s u e r c I i b e r a l r z e d l l n d u s r r l i s r o . i . ) f , ' l l J 'r n : . r u l c l n d d o e s n ( ) r n e c d r o v e r n m e n t i n c e n t i v e s .P r i v a t e i n r . e s t m e n t sa r c the ambitious cxoansion of the prcscnt 8i!.p.guo.plit\t! p r ^ d u - t i ^ r ro f ) { ' - b : l l r o nI r r r c .1 , r , : l , ' n r ^ r r : h . , n _ - ' L t , l l ) . ' , ) .'-..-litre. vcJ! b\' ,).)lll] T c c h n o l o g i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t s ,i n r p r o v c m c n t o f s u g l r c e n e s p c c i c s .a n d b e l t e r n r l n l g c n r c n t n r i c t i c c ' \ i n t l u c c d b r

illto rl adcquatc cnvironmcntll control hrr e lurnc.l !gi! cilg3l]13lgL productiol of in thc bcnchmark global $.Silf T h ( i r : ( l r \ ' . . 1 J r L t t f l u r l l ! J i l p ( l r , ' l t u n r n . l J l i , ' r r sl I r ( l r r sold ha\ ri o UI Jrrntor,iu( ctr).rnor counrr\. {]]jl!jjI]lj1c ' blcndrd rnd r. cailed ga'^hol (E25,

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careful attention to the ra(ionale behind arguments againsr sugar cane erhanol. This chapter plcsents the facts and discuss s s u c s s e sl i k e ( a ) ' s u n k ' c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t s ;( b ) n e t c n c r g y oalances (fossi) inputs versus rcne$3ble outputs); {c) compctition bet!\'een energJ crops and food crops; (d) social impacrs, in special lob quality; (e) r'ehicle performance; (0 cni'ironmcnral impacts; and (g) replicability of Brazilian expcrience.

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SOL- Techgives Brazilcapacityto exportethanolhere Nol advanccmentsin biotechnolog and technologicalprocessesallou Brazil to expand sugar ethanol production n ithout harming rainforestsor ecosvstcms while requiring minimunrrmounts of oil for transportation DanielYergin. chaimranofCambridgeEnergl RcsearchAssociates. rcceivedthc PulitzcrPrizeand the tJnited StalesIlnerg! A\\ard for lifelongachievements in energl and thc promotionof intcmationirlunderstanding. ''I:lhanolAnd Brazil:The Ne\yGlobal Energr Brand?"Greatethanolll eLcom,June2tl, 2008. http: grcatethanolfuel.com' Toda1.nranl Ilrazilianmotoristsmaketheir fuel choiccbasedon the rclativcpriceofgasolincand ethanol. And cthanolis ableto competerithout any subsidiesagainstgasoline.This panly is bccausethc governnrenl taxesgasoiineat a higherrate-thcgasolinetax burdenis 45 percentofthe final pricc.r\hile thc ta\ on ethanol is onl) 28 percent.But the main reasonbehindethanol'scompetitiveness is that Brazil's sugar-based ethanolhasthe lou cst productioncostsin thc world-estimated at SI . l0 per gallon.Cood rveatherand high landqualitr lre ce'nainlY imponantfactorsin keepingdou'rrthe costsofethanolin Brazil-but thc) are nol thc onI rrncs.Suqarcane hasbeengro$n in the countn sincethc Portugucsc co]onizationin thc earll l(rt', cenlun. ard industrialproductionofethanr)las a fuel goesbacklo thc 1930s.Thc 70-1earold etlranol i n d u s t r r h a si n r e s t e dh c a v i h i n n e n t e c h n o l o g i easn d n r o c e s s c a s .n d b i o t c c h n o l o givs n o $ e m o l o r e dt o i m p r o t c t h c q u a l i t va n d D r o d u c t i v i t )o f t h c s u g a r c a n s s n e c i elsn,t c e r a l i o no f e l h a n o lp r o d u c t i o n\ r i t h sugarcaneDrocessin!has led to significantsains in efficienc\ and scale.For exanrple.the caneflber is burnedto gcnerateelectricity.which pouersthe sugarand€lhanolproductionplant-rrith lcallcdbagasse) s L t r p l upso $ c r s o l d1 0l h e c e n t r agl r i d . ' l ' h eo i l i n D u ti n B r a z i l i a n ' se t h a n o lp r o d u c l i o ni s m i n i m a l . restrictedto thc transnortingoI the sugarcaneaothc processingolant and mor inq cthanol fropl there to filling stations.The combinationof thcseadvantagcsDrol ides Brazilian ethanol \r'ith a comforlable c o m r r e t i t i voc o s i t i o na q a i n s o t i l . T h e s u c c e sosf B r r z i l ' s d o m e s t i ci n d u s t r \ D o s e a sn imDortant uuestion:Can Brazil so global \r ith its ethanol?Brazil is alrcadt'the largcslethanole\portcr in the \ror ld. shippin{.l() pcrccnlof il annualproductionabroad. lntcrnational demand for ethanol is erDectedto lccn g r o $ i n g i n t h e v e a r st o c o m e .T h e m a i n e l h a n o lc o n s u m e r os u t s i d eB r a z i la r e t h e [ J n i t e dS t a t e sa n d EuroDe.\r'hich are seekingto increasetheir domesticsourcesof cthanol supDl\'.But. at leastrr ith curr.'nt l!'chnolog).thcir prospeclsarecoDslraincd.High r olume ethanol crDorts fronl Brazil lo bolh the Ll.S.un(l [ . u r o p cx r e a l s oe u r r e n t l vi m D € d e db v i n l D o r td u t i c s .t h o u g hs ( r n t e b c l i c ! ct h a tg r d ! \i n gd e n l a n dt b r b i o f u e l sc o u l dl e a dt o l o o s e n i nogl t h e s eb a r r i c r sB. u t \ \ h a th a p p c nlso t h o s cb r n i c r su i l l b c h i g h l yp o l i t i c r l . l r o t hi n t e r n r so f d o t n c s t i p c o l i t i c sa n dt r a d en e g o t i a l i o n sl f.t r a d c b a r r i c r sf a l l . B r a z i l ' si n d u s l r \ h a sn r u c l r flx)nr tr) grorr. Er cn ercludin! thc rain forest olhcr Drotcctedareas,Brazjl still has lar!c areasthdt to f t h e c o u n t r \ ' ' \t o t a le n d o n m e n to f a r a b l e l r o d - a n d ( c n c o u l d b e u s e dt o g r o n c a n e .O n l \ l \ } o p c r c e n"pd D e r c c n ot f c u r r e n l l v c u l t i v a t e dl a n d - a r en o w u n d c r s u q a r c a n e c u l t i v a t i o n$ i t h h a l f o f t h a t d e d i c a t e dt o e t h a n o lD r o d u c t i o n ,A d v a n c c si n b i o - t e c h n o l o ghva v es u b s l a n t i a l he n h a n c e dn l a n t t r D e s i.m o r o v i n g ( h c i r a b i l i t Yt n a h r i l e i n a u ' i d e rr a n g eo f s o i l sa n d c l i m a t e s,.\ i l t h i s n r e a n tsh a tt h e r ei s p o t e n t i a lt o erDand Brazil's ethanol production substantiallvand make it a maior glotlal enersv suDDlicl! Furthermore.e\pansionofethanol Droductionin llrazil is unlikeh to createthe kind of food vcrsus fuel conflictsthat can be expectedin olher developinscountrics$ith aqricultural potential.

BiolirelsAff 169t222

cNDt2k8-9 Rcrcnls

SOL- Brazilhas capacityto exportethanolhere Brazil hascnoughfarmland to suppll us with a sufficientamountofethanol ' ethanol andmarketing Petrobras tellsUSto letin Brazilian PetroleumEconomistMarch 2007(' Rcfining March2007. t-e\is) THE Us r|ill flol be ablc lo peet its targetsfor iDcrcasingbiofuelsusaqefrom domcsticresources.!avs sardrrrll,'fls Sergio Gahrrcllr. lhec,rn)pan) s chrclexeculi\c. Brazil's Petrobras.Spcaking rnlk)uslon la:ilmonlh. ara c!nfcrencc l r o d u c c r sl i o m o r e r s c a sc o m f c l l l o r s \ \ t l l b e n c c d e da n d c a l l e do n t h c L I Sg o \ e m m c n t1 0r c m o ! e m e a s u r c lsh a t p r o l e c ld o m e s l i ce t h a n o p S a r d ( i a b n a l l r " l n o u r r i c \ \ . t h e L J S ' f b t o f u c l s ] t a r g e l s \ r i l lr c q u i r ea n i D c r e a s ien i m p o r t s" I l r s a \ i c * l h a l i s s h a r c db ! n r e n \ ( t h c ^ l n l t r ) t i a n .P r c \ ) d c rLl ; e o r g r l J u s h a n n o D n c c d a p l a n l o r c d u c e p n ) j e c l e d l j S g a l o l r n c c o n s u m p l r o n h ) 2 0 9 i ' b f l 0 l 7t{hsee er dpcl 6ai)\ r . . r ( h 1 c \ et h r i m a r n l ) b \ r n . r c a s r n gp r d d u c l r o no l t S c t h a n o l .t o - ' i 5 h ng a l l o n i . r ) e a r ( t r S C l ! ) I n p f l n c r f l c . t h r s\ \ d u l d h a ! c nc!\ bu!rncs\ c o n s l d c r a h l bc c n e l i l sr c l h e U S t i l * o u l d c n h a n c e€ n c r g \ s e c u r i l )h ) r e d u c i n gt h . n c c df o r o r l r n r p o n su. h r l c g e n c r a l r n g l.ltrlhclslljrm|ngIndunr'.Iargel-"'because

)e-rislation requiresproductionto increaseto 7.5bnU $at1' by 20I 2. Accordingto Global lnsight.a e ( r n \ u l l a n cU ) .S p r o d u c t i ocna p a c i t h) 'a sd o u b l e ds i n c e2 0 0 3a n ds h o u l dr i s eb y 5 0 9i rt h i s1 e a r . Y e t , d e s p r t e lhc incr!'ascs. it is doubtful $ hether the US will be able to reach such an ambitioustarget from domcstic elhirnoD l r o d u c t i o nF. o r o n et h i n g .i t d o e sn o t h a v es n o u g hf a r m l a n d :a c c o r d i n gt o a s t u d \ 'l a s tv c a r b \ t h r [ - n i v e r s i t to f l \ l i n n e s o t an. e a r l v I 5 9 6 o f c o r n g r o u n i n t h e U S i s c o n v e r t e dt o e t h a n c i lb. u t t h i s rcplaccslcssthan 270 of easolineusage.Even if all thc US' remainingcorn $erc convcrtedto ethanol. i i l r o u l d r e D l a c eo n l \ a r o u n d l 2 7 0 o f s a s o l i n ec o n s u m p t i o nt .h es t u d )s a i d .T h e r ca r ea l s od o u b l sa b o u l horr rnuchenergyis savedwith corn-based elhanolbecauseofthc amounttrl'lossilfuelsusedin its p r o d i r c t i oann dd i s t r i b u t i o n A.d d i t i o n a l h€. t h a n o li s a n i n e f f i c i e nftu e l : i t h a so n l Ya r o u n d t r r o - t h i r d so f fhe energ\ dcnsitv ofgasoline,so a great€r !'olume is neededto achievethc samecffect. Ilo\\e!er. f o r e i g nb i o f u e l sn r o d u c e r ss u c ha s B r a z i la r c u n a b l et o e r p o r t t o t h e U S b e c a u s e of a dutv on imDortcd r(hanol ofS0.5.l"(,'S(i.designcdto protcctand nunurethc donresticethanolindustr.\.Brazil. rlitb idcal geograDhicaland climatic conditionsfor sugarcancoroduction - a significantlt more efficient croo l h a n c o r n f o r e t h a n o ln r o d u c t i o n- h a se s t a b l i s h ead t h r i \ i n s e l h a n o lb u s i n e sas n d $ o u l d b e a b l e t o increase \D()rts ubstantiall\.

IJrazil n ants us to take their ethanol Krrlan Lltlc2007 D r i \ i n g t h e\ l a r k e t :T h e E i l c c t st r nt h e U n i r e dS r a t c tst h a n o lI n d L r s t rI .l -\ I h r :f o r . ' i s nI t h . r n L r l I a f i l l i : L . i l i e d. l l i [ n c r c \ L J . b 9 . 1 I ' i 0 ; I t h c d . ' b a 10e\ c r D r o g r a mn r k e si ( t h c l i k e h s o u r c ef o r i r p p o r t e dc l h a n o l .N o l o n l v h a sc t h a n o lr c d u c e dl l r a z i l ' sn e e d l i , r i n r p o r t ( ' do i l . , t h a sn o n b e c o p ci l I n a i o rr \ D o r t f o r t h e c o u n t r l . n l 0 t , W h i l c B r a z i li s a l r f s e c o u n l r y . i t : p c r p u l a t i odlol c sn t r tr e q u i r ct h c l a r c ea r n o u not f e t h a n opl r o d u c e d o n r c s t i c a ) l1t 1i s. c s l i m a t c tdh a tf l f r z i l \,,jll c\porl t\\'o-thirds o f its sugarand I 3.5o,irof its ethanol.n I 0 7 l.or the past le\\' )'ears.Bl44ill3s_g]lqlllgg n r u c ho f l h i s s u r D l u se t h a n o lt o I n d i a .n l 0 E T h i s | e a r . h o r , c " e r@ . $ i l l m e c tt h e c o u n t r \ ' sd e r n a n da n d i t n ' i l l n o l o n g c ri m D o r tf r o m B r a z i l .n l 0 g W i t h n r o d u c t i o n coptinuing to gro\r'. Brazil is looking to the United Statesto take on the additional ethanoL

BioluclsAft' t7Qt222

cNDl lk8-e nts Regc

SOL- Brazilhas capacityto exportethanolhere tlS should import from ethanolfrom Brazil - strong comparativeadvantagcin crop production of Technologr'. Institutc professor atRochestcr of economic:j Batabr al, 2007(Anrirrajeet. AnhurJ.Gosncll ''tJ.S.shouldbuy cane-based Democratand Chronicle,May 21, 2007.lexis) ethanoltiom Brazil" Rochester l n h i sJ u n .l l S r a t eo f t h e U n i o nA d d r e s sP. r e s i d e nBtu s hc a l l e dI o r a 2 0 p e r c e nrte d u c t i o inn A m e r i c a 'os i l the use'ofelhanol consuntption over the next decade,and he proposedlo nrakeup the shortfallb;, increasing \re must first increaseits production. and otherbiofuels. However,to increaseelhanolconsunrption. for energyefficiencl'. ln Erhanolcan be producedin threewa)s. and eachonc hasinlportanlimp)ications produclion. nrore landmustbe usedto gro\\ To increase from com. elhanol nrost ethanol is n)ade ;\4gg$g, corn inrteadofothcr food,so fbod pricc's$illtend ro rise.Also. thc diversionofcorn fiont animalfeedto cthanol$ ill tendto increasenteatprices.And. to makc ethanol from corn, distillersmust first contert corn slarch into sugar.So, corn-basedethanol requiresalmost as much and possiblvmorc cnerq\ to s h e n i l i s b u r n e d . I n c o n t r a s t c. t h a n o li n c o u n t r i e ss u c ha s B r a z i l i s c h e a D c {r n d n r o d u c ea s i t r e l c a s c w sten of conYertingcorn "qreener" becauseBraziliansusesugar canc to nrakeit. Hence.the exDensive w h e n b u r n e dr e l a t i l e t o e n e r g v s ore s t a r c ht o s u g a ri s e l i m i n a t e da n d t h e r e s u l t i n ge t h a n o lr e l e a s em p r o d u c t i o n . . hich r e q u i r e s a t r o D i c a cl l i m a t e $ s u g a r c a n e t h e a m o u n tu s e di n Succcssful cultivation B r a z i l h a s .A n d . B r a z i l h a so l e n t vo f l a n d o n $ h i c h t o g r o w s u g a rc a n ew i t h o u td i r e r t i n q l a n d f l o n r food rtroduction. Put differentlv.Brazil has a comparaiil'ead!antaee in the production ofcheaD.{:re.'n ethanol and $e do not. So. elementary tradetheor\ sals thal we oupht to buy ethanol from Brazil and to thc farm lobbr. s c l l B r a z i l g o o d si n \ r h i c h w e h a v ea c o m o a r a t i v ea d r a n t a g eI.n s t e a d i,n d e f e r c n c e r r c a r e s u b s i d i z i nd . i m u l t a n e o u srl lr.e a r e g o m e s t i cn r o d u c t i o no f e x n c n s i r ea n d n o n - g r e c ne t h a n o l S D e n a l i z i n g l hBer a z i l i a n s bt)a x i n gt h e i re t h a n oLl ' \ p o n s .l f e n c r q v s e c u r i t \i s a g o a lt o $ h i c h $ c a \ D i r c . n o r i i s t h c t i m c t o r e d u c ea n d i d e a l l !c l i m i n a t cd o n ) e s t i sc u b s i d i easn d e n c o u r a g e t h a n o lr t r o d u c l i o ni n l - a t i n A m e r i c a ,S u c hp o l i c i e s$ o u l d h c l DL a l i n A m c r i c a .i m p r o \c A m e r i c a ' sg b b a l i m a s e .r c d t l c ct h ( casecanbe madeti)r linancial burdcn on U,S,taxDa\ers.and malic thc rrorld grccncr. A lr'asonable r L r b s i J i z i nt hget h i r dr v a ro f p r o d u c i n g e t h a n o li . c . .t h cc n z v m e - b a : epdr o c c stsh a tp r o d u c ccse l l u l o s i . c l l r a r r ( rCl e l l u l o s iec t h a n oils t h c g r e e n e selt h a n oal n dt h i sk i n d o f e t h a n opl r o d u c t i o\n\ ' i l ln o td e l r a c fl i o n t l i r i r Ji r | o d u c l i u nE t h a n o la l o n ew i l l n o t s o l r eo u r € n e r g vD r o b l c m sH. o w e v e r .i t i s o n e o f I 0 o r t [ o l i oo f r l l t e r n a t et c c h n o l o g i etsh a t \ r ' i l lb e n e e d e di n t h e f u t u r c . l t r v o u l db e n i c ei f A n t c r i c ad i d i l s p r n t o t n s L r r c t h r t t i r i sn r L r c h - n e c dccl hda n oils g r e e n .

Brazil l illing to export sugarethanolto thc UnitedStates ('CornEthanol: JernGarrett.Ne\\York'limes. 2,1.2007. Biolircl orBiofraudl-. September htlp: rrhe,,-ls. b logs.nrlinres.com/200?,'09''24lcom-cthano l-biofuel-or-biofiaudr?hp) lhan a Corn ethanolis alsoonly nrarginallylesscostll (somecriticsthink il nral eren coslmore)to nranulactLrrc sallonof qasr)line. 'fhc c h c a p e s tc.a s i e stto o b t a i na n d m o s tr c a d i l \ a \ a i l a b l cf o r m o f e t h a n o la \ a i l a b l ei s s u g | r c a n c ethanol fronl Brazil. In fact.Stratfor.a strategicplannint nervslefter. pointcdout that Brazil "has dctcloped a fur.l that reducesgreenhousegas emissionsand comesfrom a Dlacethat is rroliticall\ slablc a n d f r i e n d l \ t o b o t h t h e E u r o D e a nU n i o na n d U n i l e d S t a t c s , "A n d B r a z i l h a sa s u r D l u so f i t . r e a d \ t o c\Dorl. Wh\ nol do somethingright nou to alleviateour fossilfuel energyaddictjon?Or should\\'c uail until. sa1.2022*hen domesticethanolproductionis projectedto be rampedup. as a BLrshadntinistration targetsuggests? Until 2022,should$'c continueto neet our nations energyneedsvia our manl liicnds in thc lVliddleEast?(This is rvorkingso rvell for us.so far.) Elsewherein the O.E.C.D.'sscathingindictnrentol' the corn cthanolindustry.it calledfor an end to {oremment subsidies to thosegrou.ingcom tbr e$anol. It su{tcstedthc EuropeanlJnionact immediatcllto cnd scGasides." uhereinpan ofthe availablelrrnr land is lcft lillou for a )ear or t\\'o.to let the soil rest,and to keepgrainpricesartiticiallyhigh b) keepingit in shotrersupply.The set-asides makeespeciallylinle sensethis year,in view ofa widespread drought.lorrer !ield grainharvests, and a significantdivcnion of acreageplantcdfor com-as-foodto ethanolproduction insteadlhe O.E.C.D.saidimpon tariffson fuels,suchas sugarcaneethanol,oughtto be removed.

BiofuelsAff I7l /2ll

cNDl tl8-9 Regents

SOL- Brazilhas capacityto exportethanolhere llenroving the ethanol tradc barricr rvould cxpand Brazil's market *nrazil can'tfind world marketlbr i1scthanol" Jacl'Chang N4cClatchy Neuspapcrs5r+,t2008 pg I http:rrru u .godlikeproductions.com'/forum I i'message544905, I h,-'t'thanol giantsofsouthcastemBrazilhavetransformedhou l85 million residenlsoi'this SouthAnlerican nalionpo*er their carsandlrucks.Nou. the.,saythe)'rcrr'ad)to startthe samccthanolrcvolutionin the resl o Jt h s $ o r l d . i f o n l y t h eu o r l d \ \ i l l l e tt h e m .Y e t l h e r e s lo f l h e $ o r l d d o e s n s' te e ml o \ \ a D t\ \ h a tt h e llrazilianshitve.ln aheUnited States.a 54 cent-Der-gallontar blocksrpostBraziliarl ethanol from reaching U.S.consuncrs.Similar tariffs also block accessto Europe.China and other maior energ\ markets.(;etting rid ofsuch lariffs. Brazilian Droduccrsargue. would sive the rrorld nhat it needscheap.clean 8nd environmentallvfriendlv alternativefuel. Ending the trade barriers also would iqnite onc Brazil's ethanol industrr and turn the countrl into a maior biofuel exporter,saidJoscGoldcntberP. to block Brazilian ofthe foundersof Brazil'snaljonalcthanolprogram.Instead.the UnitedStatescontirtucs ethtnol $tile boostingproductionof cthanolmadeliom corn.rvhichproducesmuch lesscthanolper acrc grccnhouse-gas cnri\\rons Othcr !ottrltries rhansugardoes.cutsinto food suppliesand doesIittleto rr,:duce $ uhcat. andothc'rcropslltal also rapeseed alsirharc rvoided Brazilianethanol.insteadexperinrcntins ilh prodrrceJcssbiofirclpcr acrc. l-henressage doesDlsccnrlo b!'gellingthrough.As \\orld alsmt gro\1\(t\cr r i.rng lircrdpricesand shorlagc5. manl arc blanrinqcrpandingbiolucl productioniirr hoesirrgfarnllan,llllxt theircclebratcJ tuscdto producefbod.and BrazilianleadershavclbLrndthcnrsclve's on the delcnsi\'('about t r i o l u e l I. h c B r a z i l i a nhsa r c h i t b a c kb ) p o i n t i n go u t t h a ts u g a cr a n e - b a s eedt h a n car n l dt h c U . S . .c o r n - b a s c d producerscan \ iirir-t\arc rrorldsapar1.and the problcmis conr.no1sugar.Scicnceis 0n thcir side-Recause u \ u t l r cc ' n l i f es r a l ko f t h e s u g a p s l ' t h ec o r np l a n t .a n a c r ! ' o i r l a n t o m a k eb i o i u c l .i n s t e ' aodJ ' j u stth ck e r n e l o \ ! l a r c a n ci n B r a z i l p r o d u c easb o u t8 0 0g a l l o n so l e t h a n o lr.r h i l ca n a c r eo f c o r n p r o d u c c3s 1 8g a l l o n s . - l h e \rilrchlionr corn alsonruslbc cot'rlenedinto sugarbc-lbrcil can bc turncdinto cthanol.an c\tra stepthat |r:qui|csa biggcl inveslnrcntin energr.As a resull.surar-clnccthanolproduces8 unitsofenergl fclrercn ] L r n iot l ' l i r s s ill' u c l si n r e s t c di n i t sp r o d u c t i o nr r. h i l et h er a t i ol i r l c t r n e t h a n t > i sl L i t L rL N o t o n l l i s p r o d u c i n sgu g a r c a n c - h a sectdh a n oni r o r e e l i l c i . ' n r . t s r a z i l i a n o l l l c i a l s s a r .I\ief t+l c e l t h c c o u n t r ) ' s l.trnrlandjs usedto produccit. Sugaris grorrnonl_rtrn I percento1'Brazil's arablclirnd.indust4 figurcs s h o r r I i . S .c r i t i c sh a r c m a d et h em o s tn o i s ca b o u t h c ' p t r s : i b e l ef l i c t so f e t h a n opl r o d u c t i oonn [ ] r a z i l ' s l i ; r r i l cr l i n l b r c s l sa n do t h e re c o s l s t e n rcsr.i l i c i s mlsh a l f l r a z i l i a np r o d u c e rcsa l l a b s u r dB. r a z i l i a no f t l c i a i \ :crrll at suchcriticisms.sarinqsular producersdon'tknrrckdorrn lbrestsbut instea,lerpand ink) dL'grrd..l s n eh e a do l c a t l l c1 b re \ e t l 1 . 5 t c r c s . l l r \ l u r ! ' s I h e \ s a \ t h ec o u n t n ' sb c c f i n d u s t q r. r h i c ho n a r c r a g cg r a z e o e,.LriLj d,oublethat raleand f]cc up to aboul160 million acrr-slirr othcr uses.includingsugarproduction. l ) c s p i t et h e r e c e nbt u m p \i n t h c ' r o a dB. r a z i lh a st r a r e l c dI l o n g$ a r t o b e c o n l ! ' \ \ h ai l i s l o d a ) t h c \ ! o r l d l c ; r d cjrn J l t c r n a t i r e n e r g i .A l r e a d r p . rrlvc o n n r o ns i g h l st h r o u l l h o ut hl i sc o n t i n r n l . . u m p ss e l l i n ge t h a n r a \ i / c d c o u n l f \ . a n d t h i s r c a rl.l r a z i l i a nd r i r e r sr i i l l c o n s u n ra, Jsn r u c hc t h a n orls l a s o l i n e \. \ ' i t h l h . h L l pr ) l a g g l c : r i r co l l . s h o roci l c x p l o r a t i o nB.r a z i l i a nasl s oe n j o ) s o n t e t h i nAgn e r i c a n sc i r no n l r d r e a nar b o u l ('nef{\ independence. nreaningthecountn produccsall thc fuel it needs. Ethantrl lbssilor alternatirq tttadcits conrebackonlr recentlr$ith the retum oihir.:heasolinepriccsandthe de\cloplnentof "llex-fuel" carsthat can run on an! combirationofcthanoland gasoline.Suchcarsnou nrakeup nearll all nc\\ models sold in llrazil. Ethanol,in fact.hasbecomeso popuiarin Brazilthat it threatcns governmenthopcsoftumine Brizil into a majorbiofuelsexponer.The vastmajoriryo1-Brazilian ethanolgoesinto Braziliancars.and lhal'll rcnrainthe case€ven$hen the countryproducessonre17.3billion gallonsolethanola lear in 2020. go\ ernnrentand industrl estimates shou'.Brazil rr ill hal e aboul.1billion gallonsof e'thanolleft over to (-n. e\porl I h

cNI)t2k8-9 Rc!eDts

Biofuels Aff t12t22)

SOL- Brazilwon't hurt environmentwith sugar production Brazilian sugar ethanol$ ont hurt the rainforest or environmcnt JackChang McClatchl Neuspapers5 Ji2008 "Brazilcan'tfind world markctlir its cthanol" 'pgl http:i wu rr'.godlileproductions.com,'lbrum | 'nressagc544905 The cthanolgiantsofsourheastern Brazilhavetranslirrmcdhou 18,5million rcsidentsof this SouthAmerieatr nationpo\r!'r their carsandtrucks.No\\'.the)-sayther'rcrcadyto stanthe samccthanolreloltttion in the rest of thc uorld. i1'onlythe rvorldu ill let thenl.Yet the rcstofthe \\'orlddoesn'tseemto want$hat the Brazilianshave.ln the UnitedStates.a 54 cent-per-gallon tax blocksmostBrazilianclhanolfront reaching U.S. consunters. Similartariffsal50block accessto Europe,Chinaandothermajorenerg)markels.Cctting rid ofsuch tarilfs,Brazilianproducersargue.rvouldgive the norld uhat it needs cheap.cleanand indusln cnvironmcnlallrfriendlyalternativefuel. [nding thc lradebanicrsalso*ould igniteBrazil'sethancrl and turn the countryinto a majorbiofuclexponer.saidJosc(ioldembcrg.one of(hc lbundersof Brazil's nationalethanolprogram.lnstead.thc tlnited Statcscontinuesto block tsrazilianethanol$hile boo:ling productionof ethanolmadcfronrcom. uhich producesmuch lessethanolper acrethansuSardocs.cuts irtto locri supplicsand docslinle to reduccgreenhouse-gas Olhercountriesalsohale avoidedIlrazilian cnrissions. cthanol.instt'adexperimenting nith uhcat.rapesccdand othercropsthatalsoproducelessbioluel pcr acr'. Thc nrcss;rgc docsrl'tseen]to bc gctlingthrough.As uorld alarnrgro$s over risingfood pricesand shonalles. rnanrarc bllnring e\pandingbiolirelproductionfor hoggingfarmlandthat usedlo producefood.and llf;rTilianlc:rdersharc frrundthcnrselres biofue].The Brazilianshlr e on thc de['nsirc aboultheir celebrated hit blck br pointingout thal sugarcane-based raricty are $orlds aparl.and crhanoland the U.S..com-birsed the pioblcnt is com. nol sugar.Scienceis on their siLle.Bccauscproducerscan usethe enlircstalLofthe \ugat planl to nrakcbiot'ucl.insteadol-justthc kemclsofthe corn plirnt.an acreofsugar cancin Llrazil frodLrccsah()ut800 gallonsofelhanol.\\'hilcan acreofcom produccs328 gallons.The starchllorn corn also nruslbe con\!'ncd into sugarbc'foreit canbe lurncd inlo ethanol.an c\tra stepthal requiresa bigger inresttne'nt in energy.As a result.sugar-cane ethanolpf()duccs8 unitsofcnergl for every I unit rrf lirssil l l c ' l si n r , - ' s t . i' nd i t sp r o d u c t i o nr r. h i l et h c r a t i of o r c o n te t h a n ojls L 3 t o L N 0 1o n l \ i s p r o d u c i n sgu g a rc a r e bascdL'lhirnolrrr.rrccfficicnt.tsrazilianofficialssit\'.\cn littlc ol'lhc coLrntnrs farrrlandis u,iedto produccit. Surar is qrorrn onll on 2 perccntof l3razil'sarableland.industr]iiguresshinr. U.S.critics havc m c most noiseabout the Dossibleeffectsof cthanol Droductionon Brazil's fragile rainforestsand other ccos\stems.criticismsthat Brazilian producerscall absurd. Brazilian officialsscoff at such criticisnls, 'I s a v i n gs u g a rD r o d u c e r d s o n ' t k n o c kd o $ n f o r e s t sb u t i n s t c a de r D a n di n l o d c g r a d e dD a s t u r e s . h c \ s a \ t h e c o u n t r \ ' s b e e fi n d u s t r \ .$ h i c h o n a v c r a g eg r a z e so n e h e a do f c a l t l ef o r e v e r \ 2 . 5 a c r c s .c o u l d d o u b l et h a t r a l e a n d f r e e u D t o a b o u l 2 6 0 m i l l i o na c r c l tf o r o t h e r u s c s i. n c l u d i n gs u g a rD r o d u c t i o n . Dcspilcthe rcccntbumpsin the road.Brazil hastrarr'lcda longu'a1'tobcconte\\hal il is loda) the \\orld l c a d e irn l l t c r n a t i r ee n e r g r A . l r e a d r .p u m p ss e l l i n re t h a n o l a r c o m n r o ns i g h t st h r o u g h o ut hl i sc o n t i n c n l sizedctruntn.and this lear. Braziliandriversu ill con5umeas muchcthan.rlasgasoline.U'ith (he hclp 01' algressireoffshoreoil erploration.Braziliansalsoenjol'son]ething Am!'ricanscan onll drean]about cncrg\ indcpcndcncc. mcaningth!'countryproducesall the fuel fossilor altemalivc il needs. Ethanol rnlde its coDtc'back only rccentll $ ith the rcturnof high gasolinepricesand the development of "lle\-fuel" carsthal can run on any combinationofethanolandgasoline.Suchcarsno\\'makeup nearl; all ne$ nrodels sold in Braril. Elhanol,in fact.hat bccomeso popularin Brazilthat it threatens govemmenthopcsof tuming Brazil into a ma.iorbiofuclsc\portcr.Thc vastmajorityoftsrazilianethanolcocsinto Braziliancars.and that'llrentainthe caseeven\rhen the countryproducessome l7.i billion gallonsofethanola year in 2020. go\emntcntand industDestimatcs sho$. Brazil \!ill havcabout4 billion gallonsofethanollefl orc'rto !'\port thcn.

( ' N I ) r2 k 8 - 9 Regcots

BiotlelsAll r'7i 272

SOL- Sugarethanolbetterthan corn Sugar bascd better than corn basedethanol lld l\lorrisso June23, 2008 "Obamaopposeslobbyists',) That'sjust ... contpone!" jr-rs1-compone/ littp://hotair.corn/archives/2008/06/23lobama-opposcs-lobby ists-that's l\{cCainrrantsto drop subsidiesfor com ethanoland drop tariffr on cane-sugar ethanol.While thai slill has lhc drawbacksofusing up food suppliesfor transpoftation tuels.cane-sugarethanol has four tinrestnore energvefficicncvthan corn ethanol. I f a lter[rte-fuels backerswant to be taken seriousl\. thc cheaDcr and more efficient versionof etbrnol looks like a much better solution- ?nd the tariffs on it and subsidiesfor corn t$o larqe imoedimcntsto it. Obamakecpstalkingaboutinnovation.but he supports blockingcane-sugar ethanolwith tarift and proppingup corn ethanolwith subsidies.

llrazilian sugar basedcthanol is better than corn basedethanol Nen srreck. August WayroCoCrcen'. 19.2007(*4Srveeler h t t p : $ $ r r . n r s n b c . n r s n . c o m ' i d 'I2i l0, 1 4s i t c , n c u s r r e c) i " According t o i t ! a d v o c a t essu. g a rc a n e€ t h a n o li s t h c n € r t b e s tt h i n g t o h o t l v i r i n gt h r s u n ,R e l a t i \e l r sDeaking.the!sa1.it'salsoeasvontheatmosnhere.rclcasinqafractionofthectrbondioridcandother hcat-trappingg?sesthat add to thc $orld's stcam\ grcenhouse,Also. becauseolant \,tastrcan be uicd as fertilizer or as fuel lo fire the distillerl furnaces.making sugar clhanol reouiresonh a fiflh of the gasolincand dieselit t\oicall\ takesto make fuel from croDslike corn. And llrazil's sneet lrrand 0f € t h a n o li s € f f i c i e n t b. r c * e d $ i t h o u l t h € o f f i c i a lo r i c e p r o p so r s o r r r n m e n th a n d o u t st h n t a r c c o n l m o n i n E u r o p ca n d t h e U n i t c dS t a t e s .

B i o f u e l sA f f 11.1'222

C N D I2 K 8 - 9 Ilegenls

SOL- Sugarethanolbetterthan corn Corn ethanollessencrgl'andcostefficientthan sugarcthanol foritselhanol" caolflnd$orldn'rarket JackChang McClatchl Nervspapers si4/2008'Brazil I hltp:"rr rvrr.godlikeproduction Lhcssage5,14905''pg s.com/forunr The cthanolgiantsofsoutheastem Brazil havetransfonnedhou 18,5rrillion residentsoithjs SouthAmeric.]ll narionpo$er thcir carsandtrucks.Now, the! sa) the)'rcreadylo startthe samecthanolrevolutionin the resl ol the uorld. il only the uorld uill lct them.Yet the reslofthe \\'orlddoesn'tseemto $ant \\'hatthc llrazilianshave.In the UnitedStates.a 54 cenl-per-gallon tax blocls most Braziliancthanolfrom reaching [-.S. consumer:.Similartariffsalsoblockaccessto Europe.Chinaand othermajorenergl n]arkets.Celting rid ot suchtariffs.Brazilianproducersargue.would gile the \\'orldwhat it needs-- cheap.cleanand cnvironnentalltfriendlyalternativefuel. Endingthe tradebaniersalsou,ouldigniteBrazil'sethanolindustn' and turn thc countryinlo a majorbiofuele\porter.saidJosc(ioldenrtrerg, onc ofthe foundcrsol Brazil's nationalcthanolprogranr.lnstead.the UnitedStatcscontinuesto block Brazilianethanol\r'hileboosting productionofethanol made from corn. which rrroducesmuch lessethanol Der acre than sugar does. cuts into food suDnliesand doeslittle to reducc greenhouse-gas emissions.Othercourlriesalsr)have 1..\ aroirlcdBrazilianethanoi.instcldexperimenting with \\tea(. rape:ecdandothercKrpsthal aiso pr()di.rcc biol'uclpcr acre.The message doesn'tseemro be geltingthrough.As uorld alamrgrou: orer rising tbod pric.'sand shonases.nranl areblanringcxpandingbioftrclproductiontirt hogginr:l-amrland that uscdttt Droducc1ilrd.and Brazilianleadershavefoundthemse)rcson the defensi\caboutthcir celcbraledbiolucl. l h c B r a z i l i a nhsa v eh i t b a c kb r p o i n t i n go u t t h a ls u g a rc a n e - b a s cedt h a n o a l n d t h c U . S . .c o r n - b a s e d \ a r i e l v a r e $ o r l d s a o a r l .a n d t h e D r o b l e mi s c o r n , n o t s u g a r .S c i e n c ei s o n t h e i r s i d e .B e c a u s e p r o d u c c r sc a n u s et h c c n t i r es t a l ko f t h e s u s a r D l a n tt o m a k eb i o f u e l .i n s t e a do f i u s t t h c k e r n e l so l t h c torn Dlant.an acre of sugar cane in Brxzil rrroducesaboul 800 gallonsof elhanol.$ hilc an acre of corp DroducesJ28 gallons.The starch from corn also mu\t be con!'ert€dinto sugar before it can be turned i n t { )c t h a n o l .a n c x t r a s t e Dt h a t r e o u i r e sa b i g g e ri n \ e s t m e n itn e n e r q v A . s a r c s u l ( .s u g a r - c a n e t h a n o l n r o d u c e s 8 u n i t s o f e n e r g Y f o r e r e r rI u n i t o f f o s s i l f u c l si n v c s l e di n i t s D r o d u c l i o nn. h i l e t h c r a t i o f o r c o r n c t h a n o l i S 1 . 3 t o I . N o t o n l \ r \ p ( ' d L t c i n l r . t | l a rc a n c - h r \ c J. t h a n o l r r N r cc l l r c r c n r .B r i u i l i a no l l i c i a l s : i a ! . \ . r \ l r t t l co l r h c .\)u|l(n'tlllm1]aI1disuscdl()pr\Jduceilsug3Jljgro\\llon|\()n]pcfcentol.Bra7||'sar|b|claad1ndustl-1l]lUrcss}r\\|,sc'ilics|j\. nrlLj(lhcn]{]\ln.'|scah()utthcPossib|cefcc1\ofelhanL]1pI0dU.ti(]nonBrazrlsfragrlerarnforests e\l1.|'l(ltnlnJ.gr.Id(d|lNl(|rti|hc\!.t}th(c(junlr'h.!|lndu\tr\'$1l]Lho|lil\(l3!!.!rn-/cio|l.hcndo1iJ . t i u l t l r 1 ( i u b ltrh , r !r r t c a n l.,ltlI]rlL,j|hil\1ra!clcdalone\\x\l()bcconrt$hatitist.ldarlh!\..|J|cad(rina1lcnlatr!ecncrg\A|rlJad\.lr|]l\'cl]ingc]anl| \\ rlI lrr. h!ll,)j iU!r!s5 r r r J e n ( r r J . n . t n r e a n r n ct h c c o u n t r \ p r t i d t l c c s a lrl h c l u c l |\frl ,r.rl(.matr\c r t n L ' c d j l t h l n o l r n r l ! L t .! . n r e b r . l \ n l \ r . . ! r r l \ \ \ r {l r l h c r . l u r n 0 1 5 u ' l r . i r r \ n o $ n \ n l e u p n c a d \ a l l n e \ \ n x ) d c l ss o l d i n B r a z i l l : t h a n r ' 1r.n I : r a l .h a \ b c c o n r cs o t ) o o u l a rI n l l r i , , / r l h a l r l l h r e l l c n \ !'^(n)l]]cn1ho|tsoi.lumi|j]l]'37illnloanlaiorbiol.Uc|sL'\poneI'l.hc\itnna].[|l\ lh.('||rcJn!rntheca\fe\cnt\henthccountnprt)dLlccj\ljnlcl7lh|||ll,llg||i|l'.l1cl c \ l r n r i r t c i\ h o \ \ I l r : r z i l\ i l l h e i c a b o L r t ,hl r l l r o . e a l l o n \0 l c t h a n { , l1c f i o r c r l o c \ t l L i nl h e n

Braziliansugarethanolis the mostefficientand bestbiofuelavailable Oxfam is...vell. Inconvenient.l 20(18. \ouknouwhatO\lamis. Another ruth. Oxlbm Brieling Paper.'June http: 't* u.oxfan.orgen,rfi les,trp l l4 inconvenienttruth.pdfldo$ nload C)fall biofuelscurrentlv available.Brazilian sugarcaneethanol nrovidesthe most falourable GHG balance.Mechanisationof harvestingon a srowing number of olantationsmeansthat it is no longer necessarvto burn the croD beforecutting. Meanrvhile, @ DroductsincludingbaBasse and strawto provide enersv for the production process.with surplus clcctricitv bcios sold back to the srid. Cunentlv,ihis surDlus'bioelectricil) ' is able to supph about 3 per cent of Brazil's overall needs,but it is hop€dlhis will rise to l5 per c€nt b\'2015, as the nracticc soreadsand more efficient hiqh-oressureboilers are installed.20

uioflelsAl'l' 1.15122)

cN Dl 2klt-e Rcgcnts

SOL- Tariffremovallowersgas prices Rrmor ing tariffs lon crs gas prices "Lifl Foundation. atTheHeritage Lieberman 07 [Ben.Senior PoliclAnal-,-st in EnerglandtheEnvironnrcnl

m I 07J.cfml andDnvironment./\\ talilli on Forcignhthanol"May, i2. http:,/'wur.heritagc.org/Research'Energy The federal eovernmenthas donc much to boostthe domesticelhanol industrv and is largelyresponsible lor the usc ofthis costl_,fuel additive.No$'Consressshould do sonrethinsfor America's drivers bv hrlr\ rrmovins (hc tariffs ihat limit imDortsof cheaperethanol and drive up pricesat the pump, scrcral (;oodforSpecral (i)n"ress lnlerests. BadlbrI)n!er5t.!cnb! no$bcJbre \\Lruld rcpcal laJrffs, these crther lemporaril) or pc.manenll) l h c s t a n d a r do \ f s p e c i a li n l c r e s l d n v e nW a s h i n g l o nt,h e e t h a n o li n d u s t r ]g e t sa n u n u s u a l l )s w e e ld e a l D o m e n i cc t h a n o l .p r o d D c c d n r o s l l \ l i o m N t i d $ c s l e n rc o m . r s r h e r c c i p i e n to f s p e c i a lt a \ b r e a k s a . m a n d a ! ea. n d t r a d ep r o t c c t i o l rl - - a c hg a l l o no l e t h a n o lt h a t I s b l c n d e d\ \ r t h g a s o l i n er e c c r \ c \a 5 l - c c n t l x \ c r c d i l .a l o n g$ i l h o l h e r l a \ c o d ei n d u c c n r c n l sE v e n\ t i l h l h e s ct a \ b r c a l s .c o n r e t f i e n o l r c n r a r n rn r L r r c( \ p e n s r ! L ' r h a ng a s o t i n eT. h e e n e r g v b i l l D a s s e d l a s t v e a r a c t u a l l y r e q u i r e s e l h a n o l u s e . i n J 0 0 6 . !

billion qallonsof this fuel additive must be blendedinto lh€ sasolinesupph. and that amount ri ill i n c r e a s ct o 7 . 5 b i l l i o ns a l l o n sb v 2 0 1 2 .T h i s e t h a n o lm a n d a t eh a sc o n t r i b u t e ds i s n i f i c a n t l l ' t or i s i n s ttasolinepricesthis vear. Both thc costsofe(hanolitself(evenwith thetax credits)and the logistical difijculliesoi' incorporal ing il into the fuel supplyhare provcngreaterthane\pected.I he nrandatc\\ ill continucIo posechallcngcsas the high-demand and a summermonthsncar.As ifprclcrcntialia\ treatnrenl llrodLlclmandatc\\'erenot cnough. kecp it from haring to compete$ith foreign Droviders.Foreisn ethanol is subicct to a sj-cents-oerg i t l l o nl a r i f f a n d a 2 , 5 D e r c e ndl u t \ ' .T h i s d i s c o u r a g eism D o r t l is. u c ha s D o t e n l i a l l cv h e a r r esr u g a rc a n c hascdethanol from Brazil and othercountries.thatcould underculdomcsticproducers. Thereis an L'\ceplionto thc tariffs.[]nder the CaribbeanBasinInitiative(CBl) andotherlarvs.ethanolproducedor plocesscdin certainCaribbeanand CentralAmericanna(ionscomcsinto the countryduq. and tarifl--frcc. llul lire lolal e\cmpledarr)ounlcannotcrceed7 percentoftotal donreslicuse.Brazilianethanolcould qualitj Lrplo thal limit. but only if it is first sentto a CBI nationlbr proccssingbeforccomingto Anlerica.In past rears.the'7-percent irnponcap hasnot beenreached.For onethins.cur.cnlethanolproductionin somc n a l i o n s . j r ,m r set e t st h e i rd o m c s l i c o n s u n r p t i olnc -a v i n go n l t s m a l l q u a n t i t i cf os r e r p o n .A l s o .( l t ec o s ( 5a r l ' di\erlrns llraTilianor othersuppliesto CBI nationshasdiscouraged full useofthe taril)'erenrption. cspecialhgiventhe relalivcl) iorvethanolpriccsthat prc'vailedin thc U.S. untilthis year.I!!lg!g1!lDqg d r o p n e d .f o r e i e np r o d u c e r s$ o u l d n o $ f a c ea s t r o n qi n c e n t i r et o e x p o r tt o t h e U . S .A l l o $ i n q t h i s c t h a n o li n t o t h e c o u n t r vn i t h o u t D e n a l t i eosr s D e c i arle q u i r e m e n tns o u l d , o r c r t i m c .a c t a s a c a l a l \ s t l o r i n c r c a s c dg l o b a lD r o d u c t i o nF. n dt h c P r o l e c t i o n ils a t r i f f sS u r e r arl c c c n l l \i n t r o d u c ebdi l l su o u l L ic i t h e r tcmporarilror pcrrnancntlv repcaithe tariffand allow lreetradein ethanol.Tenrporaqrcpeal-as proposcdin S l l 6 l a n dI l . R . 5 1 7 0 .i s d e s i g n etdo h e l pa l l * i a t e t h ec u r r e nitn l p a cot f t h e e t h a n onl a n d a t co n p r i c c : . A d d i l i o n a lf o r c i g nc o r n o e t i t i oinn t h e U . S .f u c l e t h a n o lm a r k € t$ o u l d d i \ e r s i f i ' s o u r c eos f s u o n l \ a n d rcduce tho cost of the mandatefor man\' \ears to come.Both the exportine and imDorting nalions $ould benefit.Whilc permanentrepcalis betler,becausc!!!9qrc1sisnal that the American market is oDento the rrorld's cthanol oroductionover the lone term. eventcmporaryrepeaiwould bring thescother hcnefils.Nccdlessto sa). agribusincss giantArcher DanielsN4idland and the restofthe cthanollobby-r|hich is stnrngh supponedby Midw('stemlegislators, opposeto thesenteasures. Proposals to repealthe tariff dellnitch Iaccan uphill battle.I'hebestsolutjonfor consumers u'ouldbe to end ethanol'sspecialtreatment entirrl\ . Proponents of domesticethanolhaveclainredthat increased usecould reducepump prices.displace oil impons.and help cleanthe air. but othcrsseriouslldoubtthe meritsofthis altemativeto gasoline. Ilcvond the fuel's high cost,the substantial anountsoffossil energyusedto produceboth lhe corn and the elhanolitself\\'cakenlhe energysecurit_v rationalefor the mandatebecause the amountofoil imports displacedb) sthanolusetums out to be lessthanproponents claimed.In addition,studieshavesho\r,nthat that ethanol's putativeen\ironmental benefitshave beene\aggerated.For thesereasons.-.lUg_!Ig&IS!.1[A!-.]!3! lreatment and mandateshould be abolishedalons with the protectionisttariffs. Fuel elhanol ousht to succeedor fail on its on n merits. Until this happens.Consressshould at leastend the tariffs and let qlobal comDetitionto servethis market and drive down prices.

BiofuelsAfT l'761222

CNT)I 2K8-9 Rcgents

SOL- Tariffremovallowersgas prices Rcducinglhc cthanoltariff lorrersgasprices ("4 CoodGasIdca". Wall StreetJournal 5-8-06

'proq ' p q d \ \ ' e b ? d i1d0 3 3 3 6 1 2 5 1 & s i d = 6 & f ' n r t = 3 & c l i c1n5t l6d6 &R Q I ' : 3 0 9 & V N a o r cl ' Q [ ) ) htlp: u e s l .nur ; . c o m T h e i d e ah c r e i s l o o f f s e ts o m co f l h e g a sD r i c eh i k e st h a t C o n q r e s sh a sc a u s e d\ i a t h e e t h a n o lm a n d a t e il Dassed l a s t' r ' e a rT, h a t r e o u i r e m e n-l - t h a t d r i v e r su s e7 . 5 b i l l i o ne a l l o n so f e t h a n o a l n n u a l l \ b \ ' 2 0 1 2- i s c u r r e n t l vh e l o i n sl o i n c r e a s ct h e c o s to f s a s , s i n c ee t h a n o li s i n s h o r ts u D p l \ .( ; a sr e t i n e r a snd productionbaseto placcslike thc trastand Gulf transporters a.e strugglingto mo"e ethanolfrom its l\'1id$est Coasts.contributinsto the shortages. Onequick solutionto this suppl) crunchu'ouldbe for coastalstates1o a1leasttemporaril)openthcir pons to more imponedethanol.The nroblcm is that the U.S.currentlv leviesa tariffof2.570. as lvell as a seconddut\ of 5.1-cents-a-gallon. on all cthanol.That eoualsa gianl tar thal musl bc factored into alread\ sk\-hish pas prices.and helDScrnlain whY lhc import market rcnrainstinr. lvlr.Shadegg's bill r|ould suspendtht'ra\!'son imponcderhanoluntil 2007.Not onJ-rrrould this resultin rr neu flou ofethanolin a tight market.it uould give the gasindustr_1 time 16prepareils infrastnrcturc to handleneu domeslicerhanolrequir.'rnenls. \\'e'd noterhal N4r.Shadcggintroduccdhis bill a t n r )s n r a l pl u l i t i c arl i s k .s i n c ct h c p o r r e r f utli . S . e t h a n ollo b b yi s a l r e a d tya r g e t i nagn ) p o l i t i c i a nr r h od a r e s to susgestthatthis hearilr subsidizcdindustDlacc grcatcrlbrcigncompetition.Bul latelastrrcek he linalll l o l \ ( ) n r ep [ ) l i l i s acl o r e rf r o n rP r e \ j d c nBt u s h .r i h o s l i d o n ( ] N B C t h a ts u s p e n d i nt h e ce t h a n olla r i l T " m a k c s \ e n s e. . . \ \ h ( ' Dl h t ' r e ' a s t i n r eo i s h o n a g c ' o f pa r o d u ct h a t ' sn c c d c d .O " n c i r Q n ro l ' t h cc u r r c ngt a sp a n i ci s l i r i Liir g o i l c o n r n a n i casr c ' b e i n pr 'ill l c r r i clri ir t h c i rp r r r l i l : .b u td o n r c s t icct h u n t rpi r o d u c e r s : l a e tp a s s \. ' e t i h e elhartolntiikcr: rcccirc ntclrcr.:trrernnrent sLrbsidics lnd are responsiblclirr lar nrorcofthc euncnt gasolinc p r i c cs p i k c .C o n g r c s sd o c s n ' th r \ e 1 ob a s he t h a n o lr n a k c r s a: l l i t h a sl o d o i s a l l o $ m o r c f ( r r r i g ns u t ) D l \ . \ \ h i c h $ i l l d o m o r e t o r c d u c cg a s o l i n ef l r i c c sn l o r eq u i c k l \ t h a n a n \ o l h c r s i n g l r i d e a .

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Sugar canc cxpansion during the period 2002 04 occurrcd t t t u s tr l ' r r b L ' @It notcd that during cverl hervcsting scason, 20'11,of rhe sugar c a n cc r o p i s c u t a n d r c p l a c c d* i t h o t h c r c r o p s l j k c b c a n s , c o r n )p c 3 n u t s , e t c . T h i s p r o c e d u r c i s b c i n g u s c d i n t h e e n t i r c countrl and is mandarorl in Sdo Plrrlo, $hcrc tj0'),uof rhc countr]'s sugar caoc is produccd. Suglr canc crops are locatcd arvai from ccologicallv scnsitivc areas like rhc Amazon lbrest.J thc Pantanal e B i o i u c l c r o p s a n d f o o d c r o p s m e l c o m p c t c i t ' r l a n d i n c c r t a i ni c o u n t r i e s . S o l u t i o n s t o t h i s a r e c f l l c i c n c l i m p r o v e m c n t s ,h k e i s c v c r a l p o s s i b i ) i r i c so f b e t t e r l a n d e n d u e t c r u s c s , a g r i c u l t u r a l mlrnlrgcrncnt] industriel production (lelpiiogging in the : l e a r n i n g c u r v c ) , a d e q u a t es o c i a l p o l i c i c s f o r j o b r e e l l o c a r i o D a n d , a g a i n ,i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a d i n g a n d c x c h a n g co f e x p c r i e n c e s . L a n d a r e a a r a i l a b l c f o r b i o f u c l s m u s t n o t b e a d c i i r r c s t c dl a n d nor should it compctc rrith fcrod crops.

crop priccs, rvhich arc subject 1o arc dcrcrmi4g{lglorld rol:tjlitr' ^f acricullural oulnut and r r,'r' triccr. Ilut th(r( arc always brcak-cvcos for sugar and crhanol froduction; producers rrill consider sugar only if prices allog. In a global marker. it is vcrv unlikelv that advcrsc climate conditions mav Ior cxample). at affert all cnunt.ics (Colombtr-;ndThiilSid. the samc timc and, therebv. impa.t ovcrall biofuclgg'I1. ' B r a z i l h a : l e a r n c d f r o m i t s e x p e r i e n c e .I n t h e c o u n t r y , are soilson uhich sugarcane is bcing groun for morc than 200 vears with ever-increasing yield. Since the beginning of

PROALCOOL, yields havc grorvn by about 337. io the state o f S i o P a u l od u e t o r h e d c \ c l o l m c n t o f n c u s p c c i c sa n d improvement in agricultural practices. Productivity gains from 1977 to 2004 allowed sparing of trvo million addilional hectares ofland, equivalcnt to 1.2 billion dollars. Good a g r i c u l r u r a lp r a c t i c c s ( d i r c c t p l c n l J t i o n , p r o t c c r i o n a g a i n . t erosionr compaction and moisture Iosses,correct fertilization, etc.) increase the sustainability of the culture. Genetic improvements have allowed cultqlsjlg_b9--q9lg_;g-gillgg! !nore Dloductive, and better adanted to different conditions. Such measures have allowcd thc erowth of suqar cane producrion wilhout excessive land-use expansion. In Brazil. food crops were not affected by sugar cane

growrh {Fisure 4). Sugarci!9--a-ys!e3s-!I.a-d-us!ryi!I_j4!re countrv was about 65 tonneshcctarcbv la98 but it was as hish as 100-l l0 tonnes/hectare in the slatc of Sro Paulo.

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cier.ttcon'crsion rrf solar cncrg]' GffiiFm u in human activities'bccausethe cnergl pri'ducedfrom cr()ps i s b a s i c a l l v a p r ( \ a c s s ,r l h i c h r c s u l t s 1 i ( r I n P h o t o s ] u t h c s i s t l l i l t drass on thc cncrgl'ofrhc sun. India is not onll a llrgc importer of ciil uith the prospect of incrcascJ itttpotts in thc future', but also hls significant notc-nIial ltrt IrLrductiolt ot b i o f u c l s i n t h c c o u n t r r ' .I n d i a a c t u l l l v h u : l u r g c a r c a s o 1 $ ' a s t c l a n d , s h i c h c < r u l d b c u t i l i z - c c lf b r t h e p r o ! l u c l i o n o f ' biofuels, but therc is llsc, lt substlntiul quuntit\. rrf bjorrttss rcsiduc fronr lgriculture and other aetilities, \\hjch Prcs.'nts a s e i c n r i f i c a n d o r g a n i z a t i r - r n a cl h a l l c l r g c l i , r c o r t r e r s i o n t o u s a b l c l b r m s L r l c - n c ' r g l f b r a v a r i L - t vo f a p p l i c a t i r . r n s .

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F o r a c o u n t r v l i k e I n d i a . b i o f u e i s ,e s p e c i a l l lb i o - d i e s e l production prornisqS2 number of economic, W.$on!ls!l3l, a n d s o c i a l b c n e f i t s ,s u c h a s l a r g e - s c a l ee m p l o . v m e n t generationp , a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e r u r a l s c c t o r .T h e b i o - d i c s c l p r o g r a m m er v i l l o p e n u p a l a r g e n u m b e r o f l a n d - b a s e d e m p l o v m e n to p p o r t u n i t i e st h r o u g h t h e r a i s i n g o f p l a n t a t i o n s a n d t h e i r s u b s e q u c n tm a i n r c n a n c e ,c o l l e c t i o no f s c ' e d ,t h c p r o c e s s i n go f j a t r o p h a s c e d si n r o o i l , a n d t r a n s c s t e r i f i c a r i o nI .t i s e s t i m a t e dt h a t r a i s i n g a p l a n t a t i o n o f j a t r o p h a o v e r o n e hectare of land rvould generate an averageemployment of I l6 to 122 person-days. Large-scale jatropha plantations rvill also hclp the country to achievc high agricultural growth, $'hich is essentialif thc economy is to achieve and maintain the p r o j e c t e do v e r a l l g r o r v t h r a t e o f 8 % . 1

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r) ,.\a,\\o {ul{lrr vh; n/sds o{ ConSuM€rJ, nnutl{sp\€Ofic,rniZcr}igns.T\ris ts Vt \ oCo\ cxqu"tlizotionS er\Sufe So\u\'onS . Poc\",crUcjOG [R6,Dinec{<.rr-6',€fr€r"c^t oF TERI. tsiofue\S:towards a.gc(znd a ornf st,Cuce Tu\uf( Pl *l Scr.r:)l .iri.'\ rll (,\'!r Illc \\'orl!lirrc currcntl! rll(clc!LL)\ h i q l r e i r p o l l u t i o n l c \ ' c l st h x t a f l i c r I h ( ' h c j . l t h . l i ' 1 h . h i r . ' r r \ In thrs rcspcct. hio.inc[!llq!-11_.!f!!g!11.[rJor 4$!:q1). r c d u . . n l r . , ' l l u t i, l l l L \ c l . [ r . . r r r! ' ( h i \ u l : r r - i l t ' i l ' r L n l l ' r i ! ' , r \ I r h c c a s c o f b i o l u c l s t h c s e h a v c s i U n i f i c e n t l \l o ' , r ' e rl c v c l s o f s u l p h u r e n d l l s o h c l p r e J u c e u n l ' l r r n t h l d r o c a r b o r r s .c u r b , i n m r r ' ' x i J c .i , l l J f J r l i . L r l , t ( r J t t c r . E q u u l l r ' : n r p t r r t a n r a s t h c s c i e n t r f i ca n d t c c h n o l , r g r c e l challcngcin hrrncssing the potcntial of bioiucls is rhc nci'rl l . r J c r r . r r r r c , ' l r L ! n r c J \ r r r c t, h . r l \ \ L u l J f r r ' \ i J i J L r i n l . l L ( J . . r ful-uI h( fir.r .r( n 'lr:,r Drl : f,,r!n of .'kJ$flllfs requircd for promoting rational and optimal usc of l-riofucls is t l r , n r ' ' n ,r n r r c r n e" f r x r . l i n f . o u r . . . , ' f r r r Lr r r . F " r j n . t , ' n c t . thc prorision o1 subsidizcd clcctricity in rural arc'es()l rrinr I)ilrts of rhc .lclc)oping *orld onll distorts tlic n)rrkct b! drscouragrnq appr,.rpriltc ler'elsof lroducriort ol rcntxelrlc' forrns of cncr!r'. inclu.ling biofuels..\s rt rs, in scvrrli runl :trcas rrherc comncrcial cncrgr' supflics arc inadcquatc, crralic, .rr unccn.rlnj biofucls arc being usccl fcrr running dicscl pump-scts and tractorsr ctc. Propcr pricing uoul,-i. thcrefore f.^'irlg biofucls and odrcr forms of energr. rtith.!Iqglp.]3li$.jg]{ Govcrnmcnts also have a responsibilitl'for fostcring ll&D, a n d a d c q u a t e f u n d i n g s h o u l d b c m r d e a v a i l a b l el o r r h i s lurpo<e a\ *ell ar for Jemnn.tr.rtionpr,rj(!ts (uv(rlng vtrl,'u\ aspects of biofuels development.ft rvould bc criticalll important to eDsure th:rt such funding is rrrilized through thc involvemcnt of propcr rescarch organizations, acadcmic institutions, and most importantil, local conmunitics and user groups \rhose participation r.r'ould ensurc propcr m a t c h i n g o f s o ) u t i o o sl i t h t h c n c e d s o f r h c c o n s r n . t J

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Establishmentof Ethanol will lead to further technologiesbeing developed K h os o 0 6 [ V i n o d P , ortneK r h o so V e n t u r e s .

Bg.-vrl And, lct us not forgct thc automakcrs ll-ho arc, unknos n to manl', quictll crnbracing thc cthanol changc tltrough dcvclopmcnt of thc llcx-fucl lchiclc, or FIr\'. Thcl cost no more t o p r o d u c c a n d g i v c c o n s u m c r s a c h o i c e i n f u e l s , c ' i t h e rc t h a n o l o r g a s o l i n e. G l o b a l l l , g r o r t t h o f F F V s i s b u r g c - o n i n g ,t o a p t ' i n t r v h c r c V o l k s u a g e n i n R r a z i l i s g i v i n g s c r i o u s c o n s i d e r a l i o t rt o p h a s i n g o u t g a s o l i n c - p o sc r e d l e h i c l e s . I t i s c a s - vI o s c e \ \ ' h ) s o , r l i t h F F \ r s a l e si n D c c e l n b e r 2 0 0 5 a c c o u n t i n g f o r 7 1 9 l "o f o v t - r a l l ncs car salcs in Brazil. \\'h1 can't s'c'do thc santc itr tltc rcst of t h c w o r l d ? E t h a n o l a n d b i o - d i e s e l a r c t h e o n l . vn c a r - t c r n . t

s.,Iutions@nce cthlnol rnd bio-dicsel a!!-S!!4,U$l4r-!n! ) t e-..-------'--'-c h n o l o s i e s- f r o m b i o c h e n . r i c at ol r h c r m o c h c n i c a l , f r o m c h c m i e a in r , ' . c " t c c h @ agricultural \ron. to cron rolsll^n \cllunlc\

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Bio-Ethanol Governmentinterventionwill carvea marketfor D h o v oo 0 6 [ P r o b h o ,R e s e o r c ho s s o c i o t eT' E R l ' f u i u r e P o .7 5 J Brazilian PROALCOOL progratnrne \\'as started \\'av back rn l 9 ? 5 i n r c s p o n s ct o h i k c i n o i l p r i c e l t r v a st h e f i r s t a n c l t h e . - n s t . L r . c c : . l u l l i t g c - . i J i ( i ' i . , l r r c ll r . g r r m n t c r n t h c r r n r l J i ' b j . c t r v c ' -n r r k r r r q , B r . , z i l! \ , 1 r l Jl ( . J J ( l t i,.n' "a, "t ,dranr. .. -p t . r. ,. Jt 'uc .rt.ir r. n l c n J t r . c l i , , l . r r .r t l t , . m . r J e. t l r : r r . ' l \ r l l h t c ' l ' ( . 1 l r ' F : r ' " l l n ' i n t l t c _a u r " n l t t i t c "lully,o,rtp,t,,t,ta r r r t h . I t e t r n u e lI r o d u . t r o n . I I L t ' l ' i l l i o n l r t r c . fu"i n,.'rL.t j r . ' l h c .r.rbrrrtulro ol AJ,olrncr!rrlr cth;nol irr ^ ,,. . - "n :oo --.."...r

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c a l . \ c Jr n r r r k c l l o r h r o - c t h x n o l .\ r ' l ) i , I li . . u D n o r t i D [ I l ) c n r c . c n t f i I r t ' r n B r - r z i l1 1 . . t l . l . l i n d u ' r t t r . n n r r f u n J c d I ' r p r r r ' : r t c ifciiilTiii-ir'nrnarrnt rir,. n, cd rhr c,.r'crnllr, r rr irrrrnr rr r 'lh . countr) Das a meturt icrIncrl!atlrtn pr(\ccssisrli_-adapti\'crc) diff.renrfeecisrocksuncl production condirions, resulting in an eliicicntfroccss nidr litrle undesirablc b] firoducts. T h c H r " z i l i e n I ' i o . Lt h a n o l n r . . ( r J r n n l c i : L r c , c J c n r r r c l v o r r \ u c ! r L 3 n e ,r ' t h c c o u n l r \ i ' I h c \ \ o r l d ' . I : r l c s t : u c l r t l n c D r o d u c e rI.' r ! , d u c t i u n c o 5 t \ f r , ' m e t l r r n o l a r c l o r r n , ' t n n l r d u u i o e e o e 1 3 f , h ic o n d i t i o n r b u I a l \ , , h c . a u \ c o f t h c c x t r c t r r c l t t a l o u r r D l cc n c r g \ ' D r l a n c ( . I h c l u c l l r l e ( \ ' ( l e c l \ u A a r c a l l c ethanolesumates encrgl output,/lnput ratios ranging bctwccn 8 . 3a n d 1 0 . 2 ( F i g u r e 4 ) . U s c o f g a s o b o l c a n h e l p i n a d d r c s s i n g sereralenvironrnental concerns including global threats posed by climate changc and oil shorrage. The socio-economic impacts indicate that capital investment for crearine a iob in the sugar canc scctor is much lorver rhan irrlo1hs-Lindu$riss. e statistics also show rhar rhe number of i ed due entauon L programme as compared to other sectors

strict labour la*s, rcgularingall kinds of ernployment activiticsin rhe country.

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I ' r c l i n ] r n r r r l 5 ,s u b s i d i r < a r c ! c r \ o f r t n c o n s r d c r r ' d condcmnable, for thcv liher:.lization n.tscribt'd bv thc \fQl\\'crrid Tradc Orgrnizlrion' rulc.. Indecd. tlrcrc har'cb..cn pclnr.rncrrr subsidics and other ttpc t f gor'crnntcnt illc.ntirL's to poorl! c o m p c t i t i v c s c c t o r so f t h e c c o n o n t ] , a s i n t b e c a s e o f agriculture in rnanr counrries iD the OECD (Organizarion tor Economic Co-opcrati,rn and Devclopnent). Thcrc har.e also b c c n s u b s i d i c st o u n s u s t a i n a b l t ' p a L t e r n so l p r r . d u c t i o n a n J final consurnption of encrgl, for cxanrplc, of rhc coal industrics and of rhe SL 's (sporl urili6.r.chiclcs). hlnrl "l thc rnarLc!'dt"s'tt't, CtoV L n l , , r i r r n r l c l \t.h e ' i n | i s i b l c tht,A'uf*.\-lll cxtcrrrlliiics. shldorr priccs' irnd cons tttttn" bl ,.1;11c.rs

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l i r r c r g no i l { t h u s l o r t c r i r r gi t s r r l p o r r - c x p D r l : a l i o ) . c r r a t e d s i g n i l i c e n t c l r p l t t l n r c r r t o p p c r r r u n i t r c s .a n c l g r c l t l v ! ' n h a n c c d t l r e r r r b i r n a i r t p r l l i t l . I n a r l r l i r i r r n .b e c : r r r s cs r . r g l r - c l n c - d r " ' r i l e r . l c t h e n o l i s i r r c n c r , . ' : r b l rcc \ o r l r c s ( t h r . :, ; : r n ci s r c p l a n t c d 3 t t h d s : r n r cr t l c { t s l t i s h a r g c s t c d ) , a n d r h c c ( } t l ) b u J r i ( 1 lttt f c t t r u n r r l l d d s | i r t u r l l r r ) ( )r l c t O O . t r ) r h c i r t ! n ( J s l ) h c racr r d s { ) h c l p s r t d u c c t i r c r l l r ( : r t ( ) f t ) o 1 : r l *l r r : n i r t g . l i r L r l L r c 1 i r' ; . . 1l 1 r 1 1.1' ,j ' | . ' r"- I " | :^ r t ; r i n . : i r c >; r n J i n e c r r a i n c 0 L r n t r i t s . I l ( ) \ \ c \ , c r , t h i s i u c l r . c r s u sl i t 0 d d c - [ ' a t r c' a n l r u r d J r c : s ' - J L r ' ,c f i l c r c n c v i r u p r u l e n r r n t s . l i k c l r e t t e r l : r t r d : . : n d \ \ ' r l r i r u \ ! \ , , r g ! i e u l t r r r . r ln i r n l r g c l . n c n l . : n t i u : t r i p a rl ( l ( l u ( t l ( ) n , j , . r b ; r , , l c i 1 t l t t us ( \ ! r , 1 1 f o r rc-ullorution. lrntl inlcrnatirllt:ll fr.rlr!jc5 t r a r l r n g r t r t i l c s c l t : r r t g r r- r- l c \ i - . er i c n ec s . S u g i r i c t n c l i c l d s c : t n b q r t r c r c : t s c , !. il ( ) n l c s t i c : r l l \b' r - q o , , dl g r r c u l t u | i . t l p r u c t r c c s { d i r . ' c t P I A I TTI ! i r ) t l .l l l \ ) I L ' a t i o r ): r g i i t ; s l C t( l s r o n , \ ( r t l c o J l ) p t C ( \ l l 3 ! t d r t t t t j s n t r . 'l L ) s s t s .a ( r n - c a If c r t i I i z : i r i o n . ( t c r . l i r d q e n r t i c i r l l Pr ( ) \ ' (I I ( n t . C r L r I l r l e c t l i r r gt 0 i n c l e t i r c t r r t r l o i l { r r \ u g : l r v j c i . l s , a n . l t o i : l p r - o r c t h r - ' l o n g c h r i n 1 r r \ ' 3 . i ! i o r s u q t l i . r n t c . l t t rn t l v ) r c l ; r i n r r r r a t r n g t l r c I l i i , l u c l s : t : r n J : r L i s .l r r i l c r J . a o u r : t r r c s $ i t l t : U u t r J a n t r c \ ! i u r i c . ] | 1 . 1C ( J I ] \ ' c r s i L \I jt rr h n o l ( ) ! \ ' l r l l \ \ c d k g u t i l l r n c c ( ' i - l t i l r l ( \ t i r 1 g l i r ( ) c c ( l r . l r c si r { ! ! ' \ , i i i l y t i ' r t l t c l i r c l t o .:ullrlr' lrlr rriJcsp;e:rii a!)nlllrcfcl!: usc. \\'irilc cll()rtr ({' rii!luce t r t r i s s i , ' r r : t r . r r r i t l r r c r , n r i r u s l r , , Dr r i l i r r r r i l u c l s i n t i r e ( r . i n \ l ) d r t ' f c r ( ) t a ! ) D n l l 1 1 ( l, i . ] ' , r i , lb r , r f u c l s r | i l l : n : r i n t : r i r ri r c r e d r [ r l c . r l t c r n : r l i t , :i r c l 0 p t r r . t u .

BiofuelsAtT 209',222

cNDt2k8-9 Ilcsenls

T - Reducingtariffs= incentive Changing tariffs in order to increaseethanol is an incentirc. .'SEN ]ARIFF EXTirNsloN [lS FederalNewsSen'icel2-9-06 ixylcDorvney. THti\E:ETHANoI. PRO\1OTES I IO!lEGRO\\'N E\T.]RGY". h t t p : ' p r o q u e s t . u n r i . c o m ' p q d $ e b ? d i d = 1 1 7 8 1 857&5 l7' m i &ts=i3d& c l i e n l l1d5 6 6 & R Q f3 0 9 & \ / N a m eI ' Q D l 54-cent-per-gallon134i1f94.i4-pg!s!-9!!g1! Scn. John @ a greater throughJanuaryl, 2009."This tariffpromotesethanolproductionhcreat homcandguarantees fuel rene$able havc cnergized incentives existing federal nrarketto com-gro$'ers." saidThune."Our . c < r r l t a te t l r : r r r , ' l l o S o u l h D a k o l a h o r d e r o s l h c l o n d l l r e r n e e d t o l o o l D r o d u c t i o nh c r c i n t h e t . S .Y o u d o l c o u n t n . " o r o d u c t i o ins d o i n sl b r t h i s

BiofuelsAfI 21 | 222

C N D I2 K 8 . 9 Regents

Misc - Sugarethanolproductionimpossiblein US Climatc conditions prevent US sugar cane production for ethanol S u n - S e n t i n c l , F e b r u a r3l . 2 0 0 [ l S u n d a y ,S i U G A RS w E E T t - ] N S E T l l A N O I . :F L E X ! ' U E I .l - I M I T SO i t . I)UPI:NDENCI--"lexis) l o understand hon' llrazjl nrakescthanoland becanrcan ethanolleader,visit the sugar-grou'ing areao1I'imcicabain SaoPaulostate.t ieldso[grecn sugarcnnestrclchlbr miles.Thcl pror idejobs for hundredsof thousands of rrorkers.liom canecuttersto scientists.Dozensof mills crushcanelirr eithersugaror ethanol. l hey grind the canestalksto extractthejuice. Then,y east1saddedandthe mixtureferments.When heated. the elhanolor alcoholrises.The crushedcanestalksare bumedto makcelectricily,furtherrcducingthe need tor petroleunl.Cane-basedethanol would be too e\Densivefor Florida. The state would do bett€r making ethanol from other Dlants.oerhapsfrom erass€s.lree clipDinssand wood chios,analvstssav. "Brazil hasa relativelysmallvehiclemarkel.a hugesugarcaneindustr),andabundantfarmland.In Florida. !\c don'l."srid CeorgePhilippidis,a biofuele\pen al FloridaInternarional Univcrsirv.]f!3-.!4!g1g_.!g tthtnol in Florida is ccllulosic"-made from \}oodv Dlants, But it willtake )'earsnloreto perfectthc scienceto na\e cellulosicethanolon a conrmercialscale.hs said. IlnginecrPauloNeves.$ho uorks al onc ot'thertrills.crplainsnhl ftg2i! can exce)al sugar-bascd clbaDol.F;rsl.thq cornrry has Dlen(\ ofsul. lilnd a n d \ r a t e r .i s l $ h a t v o u n e e df o r c a n ef a r m i n g .B r a z i l n o t i r a n k sa s t h e $ o r l d ' s l a r e e s ts u g a r rlroducer.And costsare lo$ becauseofthe scaleoforrcralions.centuricsofcrDeriencein sugar anL a l c o h o lD r o d u c t i o nD. l u sr e l a t i ! c l Yc h e a Dl a n d a n d l a t o r . P r o d u c i negt h a n o ls.a i d\ - e v e s i.s s i n r i l arr, r n t a k i n gr u n ro r B r a z i l ' sc a c h a qlai q u o r l. - h u st h er e t i o n a l j o k e ": W c d r i n kt h eb e s l .a n dd r ; ! e ( h er e s l . " B r a z i ld i d n ' t b e c o m ea g i a n t i n c a n e - b a s cedt h a n o lb r c h a n c eT. h a t t o o k g o r e r n m e n tl c a d e r s h i no r e r dccadesS , t a r t i n pi n t h e 1 9 7 0 s\.l h e n o i l D r i c c ss o a r e d t. h e [ r ) \ e r n m c | | tu s e dc a s ha n d l a $ s t o d e \ r l o D l h c ( ( h a n o li n d u s t r \ .A . m i l i t a r \ r c g i n r ci n 1 9 7 5r c q u i r e db l { n d i n ge t h a n o li n t o g a sa n d f u n d c d r e s e r r c hi n t o e t h a n o l - o n l cv a r s .L a t e r ,a c i v i l i a ng o v e r n m c n rt e o u i r c dt h e s t a t co i l c o n D a n \ t o o f f c r c t h a n o la t a l l f u c l i n gs t a t i o n s .

B ioiuelsAff ).12i22)

cNDl 2k8-9 Rcgenls

Misc- Sugarethanolgoodfor econ SugarEthanolrcducesUS deficit- empiricallyprovcn 15.2005.( Ethanol: ls it theansrrer?". l)AVIDAl)Al\lS. StPetersburg Times. October rEthano hllp: \\ w\r.sprimcs.conr/200511 0,11 7r'Worldandnation I Is it the an.shtml) I n 2 0 0 4 .t h c u s co f e t h a n o lr e d u c e dt h e U . S .t r a d e d e l l c i tb v $ 5 . 1 - b i l l i o n b l e l i m i n a t i n st h e n e e dt o i m o o r t 1 4 3 - m i l l i o nb a r r e l so f o i l , S i n c c2 0 0 0 .A n l e r i c a ne t h a n o lo r o d u c t i o nh a si n c r e a s e d1 0 9D e r c e n t . The U.S. imporls 64 percentits petroleumneeds.Bv 2025.the Enersy lnformation Administration Droiectsthe United States\r ill import 77 percentof its Detroleum.The new energl,lau passedin September requirc's the gradualblendingof reneu,able luels like ethanoland biodiselinto th!' nation'sfuel suppl). The ethanol industrv is required to raise production to ,l-billion sallonsin 2006 lfrom 3.5b i l l i o nt o d a \ ) . r i s i n st o 7 . 5 - b i l l i o ng a l l o n si n 2 0 1 2 .r r ' h e nl h e e t h a n o li n c c n t i v c a s r e s e lt o e r p i r c . Althoughelhanolblendedfuelsare not commcrciall)availablein Florida.both E I() and E85 is Lrsr'd by sonre g o v e r n n r e \nel h i c l ef l e e t si n l h c s t a t ei.n c l u d i n g t h ec i t v o f J u c l s o n v i l l cM . a c D i l lA i r F o r c eB a s ea n dl h c K!'nncd\ Spac('(cnlcr.i\lanukctur.rsrrilh modelsthat arc E8-5conrpatjbl,-': DainrlcrChnsle'r.I ord. (icncrll l\1o1or\.lsuzu.N,lazda. l\4ercedcs. Nlcr.un. \issan.

( \ Dr2[8-9 li.cqents

BiotuelsAff 2131222

Misc - Sugarproductiongood for developingcountries Sugar production beneficialto developingcountrics , \ d a mf ) e a n . A p r i l J . 2 0 0 7 . P o l i c l I- n n o ' , a t i o nAs .p u b l i c a t i oonf t h c C a r n e g iC c o u n c i l(. ' U n c t h i c aFl - t h a n o l 'rlu rr 'data/ethano I) I ariff . hnp: iings .policyinnovations.org'ideas,/brie B u t t h ee f f c c t so f r i s i n g c o r n a n d s u g a rp r i c e sa r e n o t a l l b a d .T h c u s eo f r u g a r i n e t h a n o ln r o d u c t i o n has the Dotentialto benefit thousandsofrural farmers in Latin America \rho deDendon the c o m m o d i t r ' sp r i c e .l f t h e U n i t e dS t a t e sw e r e t o i n c r e a s ei m n o r t so f B r a z i l i a ne t h a n o l t. h e a d d i t i o n a l demandcould lift the Driceoaid to Brazilian suear Droducersfrom a recentlow of only nine centsper Dound.ln this wav. Castro'scomplaintsoyer the risinp pricesoffood commoditiesfail to considerthc bcncfits for prod ucersin de\ elopingcountries.Similarh, Ochoa'sanalysisof risinetortillapricesin Nlerico fails to graspthe complexitYof conrmodinpriccsandagriculturaltradepoJicl.Thereis no doubl that thc imflcnrcntationof NAITTAlcd (o reductionsin Mexicancom production.but thatdevcloprnenl alone did not lc.tdlu risingconr pricc\. In lact.the cheaperAnrcricancom imponr ntadepossiblcby NAFTA had the polentialto lou er lixrd prices.Despitethe abovecriticismsof biofuel conlumption and free trade. the kc\ to hiqher lir ing standardsfor the poor of Latin Anerica doesnot lie io protectionisttrade ntcasurcror abandoningethanol nroduction.Ralhcr.nn Anrericancommitnr!'nt to f-reetradcu'ouldallorr all 10bsnefilfiom the advanccsin [riofueltechnolosr.

B i o l u e l sA f f 2t1t222

cNDt2k8-9 Ilegents

M i s c - C e l l u l o s ee t h a n o lb a d additional Cellulosicethanollesseconomicthan sugaror corn basedethanol- expensive proccssing Rescarch in l.atjD AlfairsatConqressional analysr Anerican Ribando. Seelkeand Yacobucci,2007 (Clare

' E t h a n oal n do t h e rb i o f u e l sp: o t e n t i a l S e r r i c eB : r e n tD . s p e c i a l i si nr c n e r g yp o l i c y c o n g r c s s i o nraels e a r cshe r v i c e , (lRS 27. 2007: Reportfor Congress"Scptemberl. 2007.AC('-NO: tbr tl.S.-Brazilenerg)cooperation: September | 7 01 9 5 6 9 3l .e x i s ) U.S.ethanolis generalll'producedand consumedin the Mjdrvest,closeto $'herethe conr feedstockis produced.( l8) In Brazil,SaoPaulo staleis the key arealbr sugarcane and ethanolproduction,$here the produce ethanol. Regardless oflhc feedstock. intcgratcdsugarpJantatioos mills refined sugar and fucl and nlain stepsto ethanolproductionfrom sugar-or starch-based cropsare as follou's: * thc l'eedstock (e.g..corn or sugar)is processed sugars; to scparalef'emrenlable * eastis addedto femrcntlhL'sugars: l * t h cr e s u l t i n a g l c o h o il s d i s t i l l e dr.e s u l t i n ign " u e l " o r h r d r o u s e t h a n o la: n d * lbl usc in gasoline.Ihe distjlledalcoholis dr'hldratedllr rcnrorean,rrc'mainiu ullcr. re'sullingin "dr-r o r a n h l d r o u se t h a n o lT o p r o d u c ee t h a n o lf r o m c e l l u l o s i cm a t c r i a l sc. o n s i d c r a b l m \ o r c o h \ s i c a lr n d c h e m i c a l / e n z Y m aD t i rco c e s s i ni gs n e c c s s a rtvo s e D a r a t cf c r m e n t a b l cs u q a r st h a t c a n t h e n b c c o n r e r t e d t o e t h a n o lT . h i s a d d i t i o n a l D r o c e s s i naed d ss i g n i f i c a ncl o s t sm . a k i n gc e l l u l o s i c t h a n o lc u r r e n l l \ u ncomDetiti\e $ ith corn- or supar-basedethanol.

Corn and cellulosicethanolcauscmajor problems t31Darid PimentclI .* and l\larcia I ?.2008 Pimentelpublirhed .lune h l t p r i u r r . n r d p i . o reun e r g i epsa p e r s ' c n 1 0 1 0 0 3 5 . p d 1 I h ep ' r o d u c t i 0or rf c o r n e l h a n o li s h i s h h s u b s i d i z c d b r [ , , S .s o r c r n m e n tb y r r o r ct h a nS Ol . i l l i o np e r) c a r l c c r r r J i n gt t r r l 0 0 t r r c p o n ." B i o f u e 1 5 a t \ \ ' h a rC o s r ?C o r e r n m e nSl u p p o rfto r t t h a n o l r n d B i o d i c s eilt t t h e I nitcd Statcs. relcasedb) the Intcrnalionaj in Cencva.]!3;g Institurclor Sustainable Developnrent . ltc s u b s i d i c fso r a q a l l o no f c t h a n o la r c m o r e t h a n 6 0 t i m c sg r e a t e rt h o s cf o r a q a l l o no f g a : o l i n c T -l e n \ i r o n n r c n t ailt nD a c t so I c o r n e t h a n o a l r e s e r i o u sa n d d i \ e r s c . h e s ei n c l u d cs c v e r e: o i ] c r o s i o no l o u r ' ralLrablccropland.plusthchear,luseofnitrogenfenilizcrandpesticidesthatpolluteri\crs.[)uringthe linncnlationprocess.aboul2591ofthe carbonfrom the rugarsand slarchcsis rclcasedas carbonriioride ittt,, t h ca l n r o s p l l c rTc h. e s cm a i o r r e l e a s eosf c a r b o n d i o r i d c s i g n i f i c a n t l cr o n t r i b u t et o g l o b a lu a r r n i n g . . , \ l s oc. a c hg a l l o no f e t h a n o lr e q u i r e s1 7 0 0g a l l o n so f $ a t e r ( m o s t l )t o g r o $ t h c c o r n )a n dr e l e a s elsl gallonsofnorious se\\'ag.e prLrcess L'muentfrom the fermenlation intothe cnvironmentl5l. l-lsinefood c r o D s s. u c ha s c o r n € r a i n .l o D r o d u c ee t h a n o lr a i s e sm a i o r n u l r i t i o n a la n d e t h i c a lc r ) n c r r n sW . ith n c a r l \ 6 0 7 oo f h u m a n si n t h c 1 } o r l do o w c u r r e n t l vm a l n o u r i s h c dt .h en e e df o r g r a i n sa n do t h ! ' rb a s i cl o o d c | o p : c o n l i n u ctso b c c r i l i c a l[ 6 ] . A s s o c i a t e$di t h t h c u r e o I c o r n f o r c t h a n o la r e i n c r c a s e isn t h c o r i c c o f U.S. bcef.chickcn. nork, esgs.breads.cereals.and milk of 109/nto 10070.JacquesDiout. Director ( ; e n e r a lo f t h e U . N . F o o d& A g r i c u l t u r eO r g a n i z a t i o nn, s r n s t h a t u s i n gc o r n f o r e t h a n o li s c a u s i n q food shortagesfor thc noor rrorldnide f7l.

LliohrclsAff 2t5t222

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Misc- Non-uniqueto sugar productionoffense Non-uniquc- sugarproductionin Brazil high now, thc environmcntis fine June2008. Paper." lnconvenient'[ruth, Oxf-anr Briefing Oxfant is...u'ell. Oxfamis."Another I'ouknourvha(

' 'u http: u u .oxlbnr.org/en/fi les,tbpI l4 inconvenienttruth.pdf/download Of all biofuelscurrenth available.Brazilian sugarcaneethanol Drovidesthe most fal'ourableCHC balance.Mechanisationof harvestingon a growinp number of Dlantationsmeansthat it is no lonper nccessarvto burn the croD befor€cutting. Meanlrhile. ne$ ethanol Dlanisallow the burning ofwasl€ Droductsincludinq bapasseand slra}l to Drovideen€rsy for the DroductionDrocess.with surDlus electricitr b€ins sold back to the srid. Currentll. this surplus 'bioeleclricitl' ii able lo supply about J ocr cent of Brazil's ovcrall nceds,but it is hoDedthis r}ill rise to l5 ocr cent bv 2015.as the Dractic! sDr€adsand more efficient hish-pressureboilersare installed.20This highlyefiicicntproducliol proccis comhinedu'ith suitablegrorring conditionsand the naturaladvantages of sugarcane as an elhanolfeedstock mcansthat Braziliancthanolis ableto achieveCHG reductionsin the regionof 90 per cen{comparcd\\ ilh reductionsofabout 20 per cenl for Americancom-basedethanol.beforcthe emissionsfronrdirectand indirectland-usechangearc takeninto accounl.Bul hugc targcts for biofuelsin the USA and EU are t r i q s c r i n er a p i d e x D a n s i oonf s u s a r c a n ca n d i n e \i t a b l el a n d - u s ec h a n p eT. h e r c a r c c u r r e n t l \ '7 . 8 n t i l l i o nh c c l a r e so f s u p a r c a n eu n d c r c u l t i v a t i o nT. h i s i s e r p e c t e dt o s r o w t o a r o u n d l . l m i l l i o n b \ ' 2 { ) 2 ( ) o v e r r t h i c h t i m e o u t o u t * i l l d o u b l ef r o m ' 1 8 7n r i l l i o nt o n n e st o o n e b i l l i o n . 2 lB r a z i lh a ss o n t e9 0 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e so f a r a b l el a n d .a n d a l t h o u g hm o s to f t h i s c u l t i v a t i o nt a k e sD l a c ef a r a w a v f r o m t h e A m a z o n . I l r r t i c u l a r l \ i n S A oP a u l oS t a t e ,t h i s e r D a n s i o nm a v p u s ho t h e r a g r i c u l t u r em . o s tn o t a b l vc a t t l cx n d s o \ . f u r t h e r i n t o t h e A m a z o n .t h u s t r i g g e r i n gi n d i r e c te m i s s i o n s . 2B2l i n c r e a s i n tgh e n r o d u c t i l i t r o f cattlc qrazing. fronrone cou' per hectareto 1.,1cous (an improvenrent alread!achievedin ccrtainarcasl. polcntiall)50 70 million hectares (an areatwo to thrcc timcsthe sizeofCreal Britain)ofdegraded Dasturclandcould bc frccd up. This could easil\ absorb the suearcaneerDansionlvithout significant l a n d - u s cc h a n g ee m i s s i o n sB.u l l h i s r c q u i r e sl a n d n r a n a p e m e natt a n a t i o n a l e r e l a n d e n f o r c c dc o o r d i n a l i o nl ) e t l | e e pd i f f e r e n ta g r i c u l l u r a sl e c l o r sa, n d i t i s o u c s t i o n a b l$eh e t h e r t h i s w i l l b e a c h i e r c d . T h e l a c ko f $ i l l o n t h c D r r t o f t h c s u q a r c a n e s e c t o rt o c o m D l \r } i t h e r i s t i n gr u l e sr e a u i r i n gn i l l s t o keen a certain oercentageoftheir olantationsfrom susarcanemonocultureis disaDDointing.l-'l Nc* arcar identified for sugarcaneexDansionDlaceinlnortant carbon sinks and hiodi\crsc arcas suchls lhe l)antanaland Cerradoqnder Dressureand Dainta some*,hatdifferent Dictureofsugarcanec\panliiorl frop that Dresentedb\ the industr\'.24Mean$hile the Amazon continuesto retreat.25\\'hilc on sonr,: p l a n t u l i o n ism . p r o v e m e nitnsu o r k i n t c o n d i t i o nhsa r eb e e nn r a d eo. n o l h c rp l a n t a l i o n s u. g a i - c a n c ' c u n r r s c(\nlir'tuc lo rrork in appallint conditions.26 l hreehL:ndred and trrelvc labourcrsarc'reporleclIo ha\'cdied \ h i l c r l \ \ o r k b e t u e e n2 0 0 2a n d1 0 0 5 .! \ i t h 8 l . a l 0 0s u f f e r i n g i n j u r i e s . 2ATr n n c s l \I n t r ' r n a t i o nra. 'lc d r t l l r t p r , n c dr a r i o u sc a s c so f i b r c e dl a b o u a r n di n h u n r : r nr e r o r k i n sclo n d i t i o n\s\ i t h i nt h r s c c t o o r !cr th('couis.'(,1 |:t;trc.tr.]8I]ortheleastlbnunlten]cn]bersofthcindtl5tq.@

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