Climate Delusionism: Harry Clarke La Trobe University September 2009
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Climate Delusionism Harry Clarke La Trobe University September 2009.
Politics of climate change • In 1957 Revelle & Suess - heating a policy concern – CO2 emissions - “large scale geophysical experiment”. • Unanimity of policy concern led to 1992 Climate Convention & ongoing role for IPCC. • Activity of climate delusionists forced a
Delusionism • Influential political movement rejecting science. • George C. Marshall Institute & the Heartland Institute sources of delusionism. • In past have denied passive smoking damage, CFCs cause ozone layer hole, SO2 cause acid rain etc etc. Received funding from Exxon-Mobil & officials (Singer, Selz) have worked for tobacco companies. • Australian delusionism has pervasive influence.
More... • Delusionists seek to create false impression of substantive debate in climate science. • Implication that because there is ‘doubt’ - no case for policy. • Fostered by press balance ideas – any view has ‘right’ to equal treatment.
• Some false delusionist claims.
Proposition 1: Global Warming Stopped in 1998.
What science says…… • One cannot assess trends in time series without eliminating cyclical fluctuations. • 1998 was an extreme El Niño year temps rose well above the long-run (increasing) trend. In 2008 there was a strong La Niña. • Visually it is clear warming has
Visually it is clear warming has continued….
Statistically - no evidence of cooling • Refuted by Robert Fawcett & David Jones from National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorology. ( here) • Indeed considering data from 1910 on the authors state: • “There are no indications in these data of a cessation in the national warming trend of the past half-century”.
Also refuted in Garnaut Report • Garnaut commissioned the ANU’s Trevor Breusch & Farshid Vahid to examine this claim (here). • “The warming trend becomes steeper after the mid-1970s, but there is no significant evidence for a break in trend in the late 1990s.”
Others disagree • Andrew Bolt & Tim Blair among others…. • George Will pursued the issue in the Washington Post, February 15, 2009. Quote: • “according to the U.N. World Meteorological Organization, there has been no recorded global
WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud responded in a letter to that newspaper: • “Data collected over the past 150 years by the 188 members of the WMO… through observing networks of tens of thousands of stations on land, at sea, in the air and from constellations of weather and climate satellites lead to an unequivocal conclusion: The observed increase in global surface temperatures is a manifestation of global warming. Warming has accelerated particularly in the past 20 years. (my underlining) • It is a misinterpretation of the data and of scientific knowledge to point to one year as the warmest on record …… and then to extrapolate that cooler subsequent years invalidate the reality of global warming and its effects. • …… Evidence of global warming has been
Professor Plimer (in the worst book I have seen on climate science) states:
• (The) “Hadley Centre has shown that warming stopped in 1998.” (p. 391)
Hadley Centre response ( here)….
• “Over the last ten years, global temperatures have warmed more slowly than the long-term trend. But this does not mean that global warming has slowed down or even stopped”.
Falsehoods have been discussed – what is the truth? Many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of IPCC projections. Key climate indicators (including global mean surface temperature) are already moving beyond patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society & economy have developed & thrived. With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts. (Synthesis Report, Copenhagen, March, 2009).
• Delusionism has other false stories. • I’ll mention only a few.
Proposition 2: Climate Science does not recognize that warming decreases as CO2 concentrations rise.
It does you know…. • Svante Arrhenius linked temperature change to the log of CO2 concentrations. • A concave function. • Relation modified today to account for feedbacks.
• Proposition 3: In the 1930s it was much hotter than today. (e.g. Plimer, 2009).
No it wasn’t ….. (NASA data)
• Proposition 4: From 1920 -1940 we had far less arctic sea. (e.g. Plimer, 2009)
No we didn’t
…..(Smoothed northern hemisphere sea ice).
Proposition 5: The ice sheets of both Greenland & Antarctica are growing. (e.g. Jennifer Marohasy, here).
They are not…..
Comment
• Is climate change delusionism poor scholarship or a deliberate attempt to mislead?
Comment
• As a non-scientist my presumption is that I should respect mainstream science. • The claims of the delusionists are false.
Politics of climate change • In 1957 Revelle & Suess - heating a policy concern – CO2 emissions - “large scale geophysical experiment”. • Unanimity of policy concern led to 1992 Climate Convention & ongoing role for IPCC. • Activity of climate delusionists forced a
Delusionism • Influential political movement rejecting science. • George C. Marshall Institute & the Heartland Institute sources of delusionism. • In past have denied passive smoking damage, CFCs cause ozone layer hole, SO2 cause acid rain etc etc. Received funding from Exxon-Mobil & officials (Singer, Selz) have worked for tobacco companies. • Australian delusionism has pervasive influence.
More... • Delusionists seek to create false impression of substantive debate in climate science. • Implication that because there is ‘doubt’ - no case for policy. • Fostered by press balance ideas – any view has ‘right’ to equal treatment.
• Some false delusionist claims.
Proposition 1: Global Warming Stopped in 1998.
What science says…… • One cannot assess trends in time series without eliminating cyclical fluctuations. • 1998 was an extreme El Niño year temps rose well above the long-run (increasing) trend. In 2008 there was a strong La Niña. • Visually it is clear warming has
Visually it is clear warming has continued….
Statistically - no evidence of cooling • Refuted by Robert Fawcett & David Jones from National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorology. ( here) • Indeed considering data from 1910 on the authors state: • “There are no indications in these data of a cessation in the national warming trend of the past half-century”.
Also refuted in Garnaut Report • Garnaut commissioned the ANU’s Trevor Breusch & Farshid Vahid to examine this claim (here). • “The warming trend becomes steeper after the mid-1970s, but there is no significant evidence for a break in trend in the late 1990s.”
Others disagree • Andrew Bolt & Tim Blair among others…. • George Will pursued the issue in the Washington Post, February 15, 2009. Quote: • “according to the U.N. World Meteorological Organization, there has been no recorded global
WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud responded in a letter to that newspaper: • “Data collected over the past 150 years by the 188 members of the WMO… through observing networks of tens of thousands of stations on land, at sea, in the air and from constellations of weather and climate satellites lead to an unequivocal conclusion: The observed increase in global surface temperatures is a manifestation of global warming. Warming has accelerated particularly in the past 20 years. (my underlining) • It is a misinterpretation of the data and of scientific knowledge to point to one year as the warmest on record …… and then to extrapolate that cooler subsequent years invalidate the reality of global warming and its effects. • …… Evidence of global warming has been
Professor Plimer (in the worst book I have seen on climate science) states:
• (The) “Hadley Centre has shown that warming stopped in 1998.” (p. 391)
Hadley Centre response ( here)….
• “Over the last ten years, global temperatures have warmed more slowly than the long-term trend. But this does not mean that global warming has slowed down or even stopped”.
Falsehoods have been discussed – what is the truth? Many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of IPCC projections. Key climate indicators (including global mean surface temperature) are already moving beyond patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society & economy have developed & thrived. With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts. (Synthesis Report, Copenhagen, March, 2009).
• Delusionism has other false stories. • I’ll mention only a few.
Proposition 2: Climate Science does not recognize that warming decreases as CO2 concentrations rise.
It does you know…. • Svante Arrhenius linked temperature change to the log of CO2 concentrations. • A concave function. • Relation modified today to account for feedbacks.
• Proposition 3: In the 1930s it was much hotter than today. (e.g. Plimer, 2009).
No it wasn’t ….. (NASA data)
• Proposition 4: From 1920 -1940 we had far less arctic sea. (e.g. Plimer, 2009)
No we didn’t
…..(Smoothed northern hemisphere sea ice).
Proposition 5: The ice sheets of both Greenland & Antarctica are growing. (e.g. Jennifer Marohasy, here).
They are not…..
Comment
• Is climate change delusionism poor scholarship or a deliberate attempt to mislead?
Comment
• As a non-scientist my presumption is that I should respect mainstream science. • The claims of the delusionists are false.
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