Cfroi Holt

  • May 2020
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SIMPLIFIED CFROI VALUATION MODEL AUDIT

10% COST OF CAPITAL (A) (B)

Growth Rate Project ROI

1

20.0%

-----START UP----2

3

4

5

6

10.0% 20.0%

10.0% 20.0%

10.0% 20.0%

8.5% 17.0%

7.5% 15.0%

42.0

42.0 46.2

42.0 46.2 50.8

BIG "T" 7

---STOP INVESTING--8 9

10

6.0% 12.0%

Project Cash Flows 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

46.2 50.8 55.9

50.8 55.9 57.2

55.9 57.2 59.1

57.2 59.1 58.8

59.1 58.8

58.8

(C)

Gross Cash Flow

0.0

42.0

88.2

138.9

152.8

163.9

172.1

175.0

117.8

58.8

(D) (E)

Investment NWC Released NWC

20.0 0.0

22.0 0.0

24.2 0.0

26.6 20.0

28.9 22.0

31.0 24.2

32.9 26.6

0.0 28.9

0.0 31.0

0.0 32.9

(F)

Net Change NWC (D - E)

20.0

22.0

24.2

6.6

6.9

6.8

6.3

(28.9)

(31.0)

(32.9)

(G)

CAPEX

80.0

88.0

96.8

106.5

115.5

124.2

131.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

(H)

NCR (C - F - G)

(100.0)

(68.0)

(32.8)

25.8

30.4

32.8

34.2

203.9

148.9

91.7

(I) (J) (K)

Balance Sheet - NWC Balance Sheet - Gross Assets % Non-Depreciating

20.0 100.0 20.0%

42.0 210.0 20.0%

66.2 331.0 20.0%

72.8 364.1 20.0%

79.7 398.5 20.0%

86.6 432.8 20.0%

92.8 464.2 20.0%

64.0 319.8 20.0%

32.9 164.6 20.0%

0.0 0.0

(L)

CFROI Gross CF(t) & Gross Assets(t-1)

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

18.9%

17.2%

14.6%

13.5%

12.0%

VALUE #1

354.3

363.9

369.9

374.0

377.3

211.1

83.3

0.0

244.6 54.5 299.2

269.1 60.0 329.1

285.4 65.7 351.1

296.9 71.4 368.3

300.6 76.6 377.3

155.7 55.4 211.1

53.4 29.9 83.3

0.0 0.0 0.0

= PV NCR(t+1) to YR 10 [H]

EXISTING ASSETS (M) (N) (O)

PV This Year of Cash Flow / Wind Down PV Released NWC PV of Total Receipts From Existing Assets (M + N)

(P)

Investment (D + G)

121.0

133.1

144.4

155.2

164.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

(Q)

PV of Investment

144.5

158.9

163.9

170.2

170.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

(R)

Incremental Wealth Created (P - Q)

23.5

25.8

19.5

14.9

6.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

(S)

PV Incremental Wealth Stream

55.2

34.8

18.8

5.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

354.3

363.9

369.9

374.0

377.3

211.1

83.3

0.0

FUTURE INVESTMENTS

VALUE #2 = (O + S)

(T)

Shareholder Return ((Value(t) + NCR(t) ) / Value(t-1)) - 1

(U)

% Future ( S / Value(t) )

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

9.6%

5.1%

1.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

10.0%

SIMPLIFIED CFROI VALUATION MODEL AUDIT Project Life Discount Rate Growth Rate Initial Investment % Non-Depreciating Last yr. of Investment Big "T", ROI = Discount Rate End Year

(A) (B)

Growth Rate Project ROI

3 10.0% 10.0% 100 20.0% 7 8 20

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

20.0%

10.0% 20.0%

10.0% 20.0%

10.0% 20.0%

8.5% 17.0%

7.5% 15.0%

6.0% 12.0%

8

42

42 46

42 46 51

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Project Cash Flows 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

46 51 56

51 56 57

56 57 59

57 59 59

59 59 0

59 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0

0

(C)

Gross Cash Flow

0

42

88

139

153

164

172

175

118

59

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

(D) (E)

Investment NWC Released NWC

20

22

24

27 20

29 22

31 24

33 27

0 29

0 31

0 33

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

(F)

Net Change NWC (D - E)

20

22

24

7

7

7

6

(29)

(31)

(33)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

(G)

CAPEX

80

88

97

106

116

124

132

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

(H)

NCR (C - F - G)

(100)

(68)

(33)

26

30

33

34

204

149

92

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

(I) (J) (K)

Balance Sheet - NWC Balance Sheet - Gross Investment % Non-Depreciating

20 100 20.0%

42 210 20.0%

66 331 20.0%

73 364 20.0%

80 399 20.0%

87 433 20.0%

93 464 20.0%

64 320 20.0%

33 165 20.0%

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

(L)

CFROI Gross CF(t) & Gross Inv(t-1)

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

18.9%

17.2%

14.6%

13.5%

12.0%

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523

354

364

370

374

377

211

83

VALUE #1 = PV NCR(t+1) to End [H]

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

EXISTING ASSETS: Future Cash Flows From Existing Assets Year T+1 Year T+2 Year T+3 Year T+4

88 88 46 0

139 97 51 0

153 107 56 0

164 113 57 0

172 116 59 0

175 118 59 0

118 59 0 0

59 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0

0

/ (1+.1)^1 / (1+.1)^2 / (1+.1)^3 / (1+.1)^4

80 73 35 0

126 80 38 0

139 88 42 0

149 93 43 0

156 96 44 0

159 97 44 0

107 49 0 0

53 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

1.10 1.21 1.33 1.46

(M) (N) (O)

PV This Year of Cash Flows PV Released NWC PV of Total Receipts From Existing Assets (M + N)

245 55 299

269 60 329

285 66 351

297 71 368

301 77 377

156 55 211

53 30 83

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

(P) (Q)

PV NCR(t+1) to Big "T" [H] PV This Year Existing Asset at Big "T" [O]

97 258

80 283

58 312

31 343

377

211

83

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

354

364

370

374

377

211

83

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

121

133

144

155

165

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

51 24

56 27

57 29

59 31

59 33

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

46 42 38 0 18 144

51 46 42 0 20 159

52 47 43 0 22 164

54 49 44 0 23 170

53 49 44 0 25 171

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

VALUE #2 = (P + Q)

(R)

Investment (D + G) Annual Gross Cash Flow from Investment Residual Value from Investment

(S)

PV of Investment GCF & Residual Value / (1+.1)^1 / (1+.1)^2 / (1+.1)^3 / (1+.1)^4 Residual Value / (1.1)^4 PV of Investment

(T)

Incremental Wealth Created (S - R)

23

26

20

15

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

(U)

PV Incremental Wealth

55

35

19

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

354

364

370

374

377

211

83

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

9.6%

5.1%

1.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1.10 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.33

VALUE #3 = (O + U)

(V)

Shareholder Return ((Value(t) + NCR(t) ) / Value(t-1)) - 1

(W)

% Future ( U / Value(t) )

CFROI CFROI

Gross Investment 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

(100.00) (210.00) (331.00) (364.10) (398.51) (432.76) (464.22) (319.80) (164.56) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1

Gross Cash Flows 2 3

41.98 88.15 138.95 152.84 163.86 172.12 175.01 117.81 58.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

41.98 88.15 138.95 152.84 163.86 172.12 175.01 117.81 58.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Non-Depr. Asset

61.98 130.15 205.15 225.66 243.57 258.67 267.85 181.77 91.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

CFROI

20.00 42.00 66.20 72.82 79.70 86.55 92.84 63.96 32.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 18.9% 17.2% 14.6% 13.5% 12.0% Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523

9

10

PV NCR(t+1) to Big "T" [H] - CALCULATION P Big T Year

4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

5 23

6 49 28

7 73 55 30

8 97 80 58 31

223 220 211 200 185

307 312 313 311 308 135

PV This Year Existing Asset at Big "T" - CALCULATION O

Page 4

354 364 370 374 377 211 83

11 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -

CFROI Year

4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

5 299 329 362 398 438 482 530 583 641 705 776 854 939 1,033 1,136 1,250 1,375 1,512

290 319 351 386 425 467 514 565 622 684 753 828 911 1,002 1,102 1,212 1,333 1,467

6 277 304 335 368 405 446 490 539 593 652 718 790 868 955 1,051 1,156 1,272 1,399

7

8 258 283 312 343 377 415 456 502 552 608 668 735 809 890 979 1,076 1,184 1,302

Page 5

9 131 144 159 174 192 211 232 255 281 309 340 374 411 452 498 548 602 662

10 47 52 57 63 69 76 83 92 101 111 122 134 148 162 179 197 216 238

11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

CFROI

Big T 12 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -

13 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -

14 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -

15 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -

16

17

354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -

Page 6

18 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -

354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -

19

20 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -

354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -

CFROI 12

13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Page 7

18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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