SIMPLIFIED CFROI VALUATION MODEL AUDIT
10% COST OF CAPITAL (A) (B)
Growth Rate Project ROI
1
20.0%
-----START UP----2
3
4
5
6
10.0% 20.0%
10.0% 20.0%
10.0% 20.0%
8.5% 17.0%
7.5% 15.0%
42.0
42.0 46.2
42.0 46.2 50.8
BIG "T" 7
---STOP INVESTING--8 9
10
6.0% 12.0%
Project Cash Flows 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
46.2 50.8 55.9
50.8 55.9 57.2
55.9 57.2 59.1
57.2 59.1 58.8
59.1 58.8
58.8
(C)
Gross Cash Flow
0.0
42.0
88.2
138.9
152.8
163.9
172.1
175.0
117.8
58.8
(D) (E)
Investment NWC Released NWC
20.0 0.0
22.0 0.0
24.2 0.0
26.6 20.0
28.9 22.0
31.0 24.2
32.9 26.6
0.0 28.9
0.0 31.0
0.0 32.9
(F)
Net Change NWC (D - E)
20.0
22.0
24.2
6.6
6.9
6.8
6.3
(28.9)
(31.0)
(32.9)
(G)
CAPEX
80.0
88.0
96.8
106.5
115.5
124.2
131.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
(H)
NCR (C - F - G)
(100.0)
(68.0)
(32.8)
25.8
30.4
32.8
34.2
203.9
148.9
91.7
(I) (J) (K)
Balance Sheet - NWC Balance Sheet - Gross Assets % Non-Depreciating
20.0 100.0 20.0%
42.0 210.0 20.0%
66.2 331.0 20.0%
72.8 364.1 20.0%
79.7 398.5 20.0%
86.6 432.8 20.0%
92.8 464.2 20.0%
64.0 319.8 20.0%
32.9 164.6 20.0%
0.0 0.0
(L)
CFROI Gross CF(t) & Gross Assets(t-1)
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
18.9%
17.2%
14.6%
13.5%
12.0%
VALUE #1
354.3
363.9
369.9
374.0
377.3
211.1
83.3
0.0
244.6 54.5 299.2
269.1 60.0 329.1
285.4 65.7 351.1
296.9 71.4 368.3
300.6 76.6 377.3
155.7 55.4 211.1
53.4 29.9 83.3
0.0 0.0 0.0
= PV NCR(t+1) to YR 10 [H]
EXISTING ASSETS (M) (N) (O)
PV This Year of Cash Flow / Wind Down PV Released NWC PV of Total Receipts From Existing Assets (M + N)
(P)
Investment (D + G)
121.0
133.1
144.4
155.2
164.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
(Q)
PV of Investment
144.5
158.9
163.9
170.2
170.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
(R)
Incremental Wealth Created (P - Q)
23.5
25.8
19.5
14.9
6.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
(S)
PV Incremental Wealth Stream
55.2
34.8
18.8
5.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
354.3
363.9
369.9
374.0
377.3
211.1
83.3
0.0
FUTURE INVESTMENTS
VALUE #2 = (O + S)
(T)
Shareholder Return ((Value(t) + NCR(t) ) / Value(t-1)) - 1
(U)
% Future ( S / Value(t) )
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
9.6%
5.1%
1.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
SIMPLIFIED CFROI VALUATION MODEL AUDIT Project Life Discount Rate Growth Rate Initial Investment % Non-Depreciating Last yr. of Investment Big "T", ROI = Discount Rate End Year
(A) (B)
Growth Rate Project ROI
3 10.0% 10.0% 100 20.0% 7 8 20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20.0%
10.0% 20.0%
10.0% 20.0%
10.0% 20.0%
8.5% 17.0%
7.5% 15.0%
6.0% 12.0%
8
42
42 46
42 46 51
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Project Cash Flows 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
46 51 56
51 56 57
56 57 59
57 59 59
59 59 0
59 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0
0
(C)
Gross Cash Flow
0
42
88
139
153
164
172
175
118
59
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(D) (E)
Investment NWC Released NWC
20
22
24
27 20
29 22
31 24
33 27
0 29
0 31
0 33
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
(F)
Net Change NWC (D - E)
20
22
24
7
7
7
6
(29)
(31)
(33)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(G)
CAPEX
80
88
97
106
116
124
132
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(H)
NCR (C - F - G)
(100)
(68)
(33)
26
30
33
34
204
149
92
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(I) (J) (K)
Balance Sheet - NWC Balance Sheet - Gross Investment % Non-Depreciating
20 100 20.0%
42 210 20.0%
66 331 20.0%
73 364 20.0%
80 399 20.0%
87 433 20.0%
93 464 20.0%
64 320 20.0%
33 165 20.0%
0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
(L)
CFROI Gross CF(t) & Gross Inv(t-1)
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
18.9%
17.2%
14.6%
13.5%
12.0%
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
354
364
370
374
377
211
83
VALUE #1 = PV NCR(t+1) to End [H]
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
EXISTING ASSETS: Future Cash Flows From Existing Assets Year T+1 Year T+2 Year T+3 Year T+4
88 88 46 0
139 97 51 0
153 107 56 0
164 113 57 0
172 116 59 0
175 118 59 0
118 59 0 0
59 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0
0
/ (1+.1)^1 / (1+.1)^2 / (1+.1)^3 / (1+.1)^4
80 73 35 0
126 80 38 0
139 88 42 0
149 93 43 0
156 96 44 0
159 97 44 0
107 49 0 0
53 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1.10 1.21 1.33 1.46
(M) (N) (O)
PV This Year of Cash Flows PV Released NWC PV of Total Receipts From Existing Assets (M + N)
245 55 299
269 60 329
285 66 351
297 71 368
301 77 377
156 55 211
53 30 83
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
(P) (Q)
PV NCR(t+1) to Big "T" [H] PV This Year Existing Asset at Big "T" [O]
97 258
80 283
58 312
31 343
377
211
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
354
364
370
374
377
211
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
121
133
144
155
165
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
51 24
56 27
57 29
59 31
59 33
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
46 42 38 0 18 144
51 46 42 0 20 159
52 47 43 0 22 164
54 49 44 0 23 170
53 49 44 0 25 171
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
VALUE #2 = (P + Q)
(R)
Investment (D + G) Annual Gross Cash Flow from Investment Residual Value from Investment
(S)
PV of Investment GCF & Residual Value / (1+.1)^1 / (1+.1)^2 / (1+.1)^3 / (1+.1)^4 Residual Value / (1.1)^4 PV of Investment
(T)
Incremental Wealth Created (S - R)
23
26
20
15
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(U)
PV Incremental Wealth
55
35
19
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
354
364
370
374
377
211
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
9.6%
5.1%
1.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.10 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.33
VALUE #3 = (O + U)
(V)
Shareholder Return ((Value(t) + NCR(t) ) / Value(t-1)) - 1
(W)
% Future ( U / Value(t) )
CFROI CFROI
Gross Investment 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
(100.00) (210.00) (331.00) (364.10) (398.51) (432.76) (464.22) (319.80) (164.56) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1
Gross Cash Flows 2 3
41.98 88.15 138.95 152.84 163.86 172.12 175.01 117.81 58.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
41.98 88.15 138.95 152.84 163.86 172.12 175.01 117.81 58.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Non-Depr. Asset
61.98 130.15 205.15 225.66 243.57 258.67 267.85 181.77 91.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CFROI
20.00 42.00 66.20 72.82 79.70 86.55 92.84 63.96 32.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 18.9% 17.2% 14.6% 13.5% 12.0% Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523
9
10
PV NCR(t+1) to Big "T" [H] - CALCULATION P Big T Year
4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
5 23
6 49 28
7 73 55 30
8 97 80 58 31
223 220 211 200 185
307 312 313 311 308 135
PV This Year Existing Asset at Big "T" - CALCULATION O
Page 4
354 364 370 374 377 211 83
11 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -
CFROI Year
4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
5 299 329 362 398 438 482 530 583 641 705 776 854 939 1,033 1,136 1,250 1,375 1,512
290 319 351 386 425 467 514 565 622 684 753 828 911 1,002 1,102 1,212 1,333 1,467
6 277 304 335 368 405 446 490 539 593 652 718 790 868 955 1,051 1,156 1,272 1,399
7
8 258 283 312 343 377 415 456 502 552 608 668 735 809 890 979 1,076 1,184 1,302
Page 5
9 131 144 159 174 192 211 232 255 281 309 340 374 411 452 498 548 602 662
10 47 52 57 63 69 76 83 92 101 111 122 134 148 162 179 197 216 238
11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CFROI
Big T 12 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -
13 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -
14 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -
15 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -
16
17
354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -
Page 6
18 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -
354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -
19
20 354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -
354 364 370 374 377 211 83 -
CFROI 12
13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Page 7
18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0