Cfr - Irans Nuclear Program

Assessment of Iran’s Nuclear Program Press Event Tuesday, September 14, 2004 Dr. Charles D. Ferguson Science and Technology Fellow

Capsule History • Iranian nuclear program dates back at least to 1957 – Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with the U.S. The Shah wanted self-sufficiency  complete nuclear fuel cycle • 1979 Islamic revolution to early 1980s: nuclear hiatus • Mid-1980s to present: revitalized nuclear program (e.g., 1985: start of centrifuge program)

Dual-Use Dilemma • Two routes to making a nuclear bomb or civilian nuclear fuel: enriching uranium making and separating/reprocessing plutonium • Iran has acquired technology to do both  striving for mastery of both front and back ends of nuclear fuel cycle

Latest IAEA Report: Outstanding Issues Front End of Fuel Cycle: • Centrifuge Enrichment Program  P-2 advanced centrifuges: Absence of activity between 1995 and 2002?  Enriched uranium contamination • Uranium Conversion  37 tons yellowcake to UF6 this month potentially enough for half dozen crude bombs • Laser Enrichment Back End of Fuel Cycle: • Plutonium Separation Experiments and Heavy Water Plant and Reactor

Latest IAEA Report: Outstanding Issues (continued) Polonium-210:  Nuclear weapon initiator or nuclear battery power source?  Lab experiments between 1989 and 1993  Other research?

Lavisan-Shian:  Site in Tehran where there was alleged nuclear activities  Razed to the ground after November 2003  “possibility of a concealment effort by Iran”  Environmental samples and documents being analyzed by IAEA

How Soon Before Iran Can Make a Nuclear Bomb? • July 29, 2004 EU-Iran meeting: Could produce enough weapons-grade HEU within one year of decision to do so Could make nuclear device within 3 years • CIA Past Estimates:  1992: Bomb by 2000  1995: Bomb by 1998-2000  2000: Bomb cannot be ruled out  Feb. 2004: DCI Tenet, “significant challenge for intelligence to confidently assess whether that red line had been crossed”