Cfgraphs.docx

LIFIED IN VESTO RS AN D Q UALIFIED CLIEN TS. FO R PUBLIC DISTRIBUTIO N IN THE U.S.

Turning tide? Cumulative flows to emerging market funds, 2013–2018

ns of investor

ady inflows into

ds and pushed

uities since 2016

ass since 2013

ng tide? chart.

Likely a recession

ar-term horizon.

to jump back in

15%

Cumulative flows as share of assets

ties, but with

cess.

5 0 -5 Eq uit y

-10 -15 -20 2013

n equities, where

Bond s

EM d eb t looks more vulnerab le to out fl ow s than eq uities

10

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from EPFR, September 2018. Notes: The lines show cumulative net flows to EM-focused mutual funds and exchange-traded funds as a percentage of the assets under management in these funds at the start of 2013.

althy global

slowed growth,

Trade tremors

ivity ahead that

BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for U.S.-China relations, 2005–2018 4

jectives: reining

China b ecomes top U.S. foreign creditor

hrough b ank

is may provide

s focused on this

Score

way. Escalating

2

Trump announces fi rst tarif fs Ob ama p ivot s tow ard Asia

Trump nomination

Xi t akes reins 0

side may already Ob ama-Xi summit

ashb oard.

forms to offset

U.S. election

-2 2005

2010

2015

2018

Fig 1.1 Linkages between the main risk type

Fig 1. 2 Wider linkages between the main risk types

The following countries have new income groups: Country Old group

New group

Angola

Upper-middle Lower-middle

Croatia

High-income

Georgia

Upper-middle Lower-middle

Jordan

Upper-middle Lower-middle

Nauru

High-income

Palau

Upper-middle High-income

Samoa

Lower-middle Upper-middle

Tonga

Lower-middle Upper-middle

Upper-middle

Upper-middle

As of July 1 2017, the new thresholds for classification by income are: Threshold

GNI/Capita (current US$)

Low-income

< 1,005

Lower-middle income 1,006 - 3,955 Upper-middle income 3,956 - 12,235 High-income

> 12,235