Cfd - For Week Ending October 30th 2009

CFD - For week ending October 30th 2009

Advantest (TYO:6857)

As the week came to a close, Advantest ended at ¥2,368, creating a bearish weekly candle. Failure to pass through ¥2,548 seemed to have put the stock in a bearish setup for the coming week. Downside supports are seen at ¥2,181, ¥1,950, and ¥1,581. While we cannot rule out that the upside is over, it is likely that for now Advantest will undergo a corrective fall as indicated by falling MACD both on the weekly and the daily charts. Upside resistances lie at ¥2,401, ¥2,425, and ¥2,449. These levels could be challenged early next week, but they could be used as entry points for SHORT positions. To negate the bearish picture, the stock should break through the key resistance at ¥2,548. Also, Wednesday will see the announcement of consolidated financial results for 2nd quarter of fiscal 2009.

Cathay Pacific (HKG:0293)

Failed to clear the previous week’s peak at $13.63, Cathay Pacific flipped downwards and ended the week in a bearish engulfing candle. The weekly MACD also falling, as well as the daily MACD. Supports on the downside are seen at $12.04, $11.06, and $10.28. Shorting into rallies would be the strategy for next week. Shorts could be entered around $12.95 and $13.08. Early next week I expect a direct push downwards instead of zigzag movement up. Also, we can spot a bearish divergence on the daily chart between the price and the MACD, thereby further bolstering the bearish sentiment.

PetroChina (HKG:0857)

PetroChina continued to rally last week and managed to bypass the hurdle at $10.21. So far the stock had climbed 159% from its trough on late October 2008 ($4.06). Upside potential remains for next week, although we can stumble upon the rising parallel channel top at around $10.70. Still, with weekly and daily MACD as well as hourly MACD still suggesting strength, we can expect the stock will move out of the channel upwards towards $12.14 or even $14.04. Downside, $9.96 and $9.18 will offer supports. Watch out for potential bearish divergence between the price and its MACD developing on the hourly chart. Only a break of $8.51/$8.52 twin supports on the weekly chart will ease up the bullish pressure.

Commerzbank AG (ETR:CBK)

Since the trough at 2.20 seen on March 2009, Commerzbank had rallied 336% to hit 9.61 last September. Subsequently, it seems to be moving downwards in a zigzag pattern to retrace the second-leg rally which started at 4.09 in June. So far, the stock had retraced as far as 7.40, or 38.2% of the length of the second-leg rally. Projection of the zigzag move from 9.61 top, we have the 0.618x projection target 7.46, just next to the swing low at 7.40. If the decline hit the equivalent length, the objective will be 6.62. This is just below the 50% retracement target at 6.85 yet not too distant from the 61.8% retracement level at 6.20. Weekly and daily candles suggested that the stock will be under pressure in the coming session. With upside resistance at 8.82 and 9.61 to cap the upside, selling into strength is likely to be the best strategy for now. Only a move above 8.82 could put off the bearish pressure. While below it, aim for a retest of 7.40 low. Note: Commerzbank AG will release its Interim Report for the Q3 2009 on November 5th 2009.

Vodafone Group Plc (LON:VOD)

Since last year’s low at 96.53, Vodafone had climbed around 53% before it got knocked off towards 111.25 in June this year. Afterwards, the stock had attempted to rise again but so far the effort has not been successful. Friday saw a the stock ended the day in a bearish candle after hitting the peak at 142.28. It is remain to be seen whether this will lead to more decline or not. However, both MACD on weekly and daily charts have not declined yet and weekly candle is not bearish. Nevertheless, supports are seen at 137.07, 135.86, 134.36 and 131.79. Recent swing low at 131.88 suggests that the 38.2% retracement has been reached earlier. With the currently mixed outlook, immediate entry would be risky. So, either looking for lower level to go LONG to minimize risk – perhaps at 137.07 – or wait for either 142.28 or 131.79 to give way to confirm the direction. So far, the upside potential is actually intact and the current slide could be corrective before the stock makes another attempt up.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Exxon’s attempt to break free from the recent trading range had been thwarted as it fell on Friday. Although weekly and daily MACD still pointing at yet another attempt upwards, it is likely that the stock will zigzag down first towards $71.39 or $70.38. We have $72.63 as the nearest support as well. Also, it is linked to the rise and fall of oil prices. It seems that recent rally towards $74.65 was significantly influenced by the rising oil prices. With oil prices remain high, the downside is likely to be limited to $70.38 for now. Upside, we have $74.83 and $74.65 as key resistances. For now, the bias is down for near-term corrective swing. Look to buy dips towards $70.38.

Intel Corporation (INTC)

Shooting star on the weekly chart two weeks ago triggered a drop towards $19.59. This painted a bearish picture for the coming session especially as Friday ended in a strong bear candle. With both daily and weekly MACD falling, and that the price forming a bearish divergence on the daily chart, it is likely that Intel will retreat towards $19.08 or even $17.73. Upside, resistances lie at $20.56 and $21.24. Look to short on upticks for now, with objectives set at $19.08 first, then $17.73 ahead of $16.64 support. Any information contained in this document are based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. There’s no representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This post has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy. Charts are obtained from Howard International’s MetaTrader 4.0 trading platform.