Census Projections
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Current Population Reports
Population Projections: States, 1995 – 2025
Population Projections
C E N S U S
By Paul Campbell P25-1131 Issued May 1997
B U R E A U
How will states’ populations change in the future? All states will have more people (especially in the South and West) and more elderly as Baby Boomers age. This report identifies population changes that are projected to affect the 50 states and the District of Columbia during the years 1995 to 2025. These projections are used as the basic input to many federal, state, and local projection models that produce detailed statistics on education, economic factors, labor force, health care, voting, and so forth. The results are useful to planners in both the public and private sectors.
Figure 1. Most of the Increase is in the South and West States with the largest projected net increase in population: 1995 to 2025 CA TX FL GA WA AZ NC VA NY NJ IL CO TN MD OR 0
(For detailed discussions of the assumptions and methodology used to develop population projections, see the report cited on p. 6.)
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Millions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.
Figure 2. Fastest-Growing States
Basic assumptions for state population projections Population. State projections are consistent with the national population projections. Births. State trends in age-raceHispanic-specific fertility rates for states parallel projected national trends. Deaths. State trends in age-sexrace-Hispanic-specific survival rates for states parallel projected national trends. Net international migration. 820,000 annually, distributed by State, based on net international migration rates derived from 1990 census data for foreign-born persons who immigrated during the 19851990 period. Net internal migration. Based on a time-series model using estimates of state-to-state migration for the 1975-94 period; the first 5 projection years use the time-series projections exclusively, the next 10 projection years interpolate toward the 197594 average of the time series, and the last 15 years use that average exclusively.
2
States ranked by percent change in population: 1995 to 2025 CA NM HI AZ NV ID UT AK FL TX WY WA OR CO GA NC MT VA TN SC NH MD OK AR AL KS NJ DE MN SD LA DC NE MO MS VT RI ME WI CT ND MA IL IN KY NY IA MI OH PA WV 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.
U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration
2
More people in the South and West Over the next three decades, net population change (births minus deaths plus net migration) will be most evident in three states — California, Texas, and Florida — each of which will gain more than 6 million persons (see Figure 1 on page 1). They will account for 45 percent of the net population change in the United States. No other state will gain more than 2.7 million persons. In fact, the 12 States that will add between 1.0 million and 2.7 million people during this period will account for only 30 percent of the Nation’s growth. California, the most populous state with 12 percent of the Nation’s population in 1995, is expected to have 15 percent of the Nation’s population by 2025. California’s increase in population — 17.7 million people — is nearly the current population of New York State. Besides natural increase, international migration is expected to contribute to California’s rapid growth (Table 1). The most populous states in the South will continue to grow fairly rapidly. During 1994, Texas replaced New York as the second most populous state and is expected to remain in that position throughout the projection period. Florida is projected to replace New York as the third most populous state by 2020.
Fastest growth in the West The rate of population change among the 50 states and the District of Columbia will vary during the late 1990s. Nevada is expected to have the most rapid growth (22 percent from 1995 to 2000), with the District of Columbia at the other end of the continuum with a population loss of 6 percent. The most rapid rates of change are projected for the mountain states, with rates ranging from 9 percent to 22 percent during the 1995-2000 period. Georgia, with a 9 percent rate of population change, is the only other state projected to grow this rapidly. After 2000, the rate of population change for most states will decline substantially, assuming that national projection trends and historical trends in interstate migration
P25–1131 continue. (See methodology details PPL-47.) In contrast, California is expected to grow faster after 2000, resulting in the highest rate of population change (52 percent) during the 2000-2025 period; see Figure 2 on page 1. During either period, the fastest growing states are in the West.
births per 1,000 population in the District of Columbia and California to 10 births per 1,000 population in West Virginia during the 30 years. The variation in mortality is expected to range from 13 deaths per 1,000 population in West Virginia and the District of Columbia to 5 deaths per 1,000 population in Alaska.
State differences in fertility and mortality to widen
Alaska, California, Utah, Texas, and Hawaii (in rank order) are projected to have the highest average annual rate of natural increase from 1995 to 2025, with rates ranging from 14 down to 9 persons per 1,000 population. West Virginia and Arkansas are the only states expecting either no gain or a loss from natural increase (see Figure 3 below).
Between 1995 and 2025, the range of birth rates is expected to widen slightly, reflecting the concentration of race and ethnic groups with high fertility rates in some states and differential migration patterns. Fertility is expected to range from 20
Figure 3. Projected Average Annual Rate of Natural Increase Per 1,000 Population: 1995 to 2025 Percent –2.9 to 1.4 1.5 to 2.4 2.5 to 3.4 3.5 to 4.5 NH 4.6 to 14.1 VT
AK
WA ND
MT
ME
MN
OR ID
PA
IA IL
UT CO
CA
RI
MI NE
NV
MA
NY
WI
SD WY
KS
OH
IN
WV VA
KY
MO
NJ
CT
DE MD DC
NC AZ
OK NM
TN SC
AR MS
HI
AL
GA
LA
TX
FL Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.
Figure 4. Americans on the Move States with the highest and lowest rates of in-migrants, out-migrants, and net interstate migrants per 1,000 population Highest rates... InStates migrants DC 88 Alaska 72 Wyoming 67 Nevada 60 New Mexico 54
States DC Alaska Wyoming Nevada Hawaii
Outmigrants 98 76 60 54 49
States Florida Oregon New Mexico Nevada Wyoming
Net interstate migrants 8 7 6 6 6
Lowest rates... Wisconsin Pennsylvania California Michigan New York
19 18 18 17 15
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PE-45.
Ohio Minnesota Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin
22 21 21 19 19
California Massachusetts Illinois New York DC
-4 -4 -5 -9 -10
P25-1131
3
Table 1. Total Population and Net Change for States:
1995 to 2025
[Thousands. Resident population] Projections for July 1
July 1, 1995, to July 1, 2025 Components of change
Region, division, and state
Net migration
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Net change
Births
Deaths
Interstate migration
Immigration
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . .
262,755
274,634
285,981
297,716
310,133
322,742
335,050
72,294
126,986
NORTHEAST . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
51,466
52,107
52,767
53,692
54,836
56,103
57,392
5,927
21,585
84,633
–
24,666
16,537
(7,168)
6,830
New England . Maine . . . . . . . New Hampshire. Vermont . . . . . . Massachusetts . Rhode Island . . Connecticut . . .
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13,312 1,241 1,148 585 6,074 990 3,275
13,581 1,259 1,224 617 6,199 998 3,284
13,843 1,285 1,281 638 6,310 1,012 3,317
14,172 1,323 1,329 651 6,431 1,038 3,400
14,546 1,362 1,372 662 6,574 1,070 3,506
14,938 1,396 1,410 671 6,734 1,105 3,621
15,321 1,423 1,439 678 6,902 1,141 3,739
2,009 181 291 94 828 151 464
5,448 437 481 221 2,520 423 1,368
4,096 402 344 180 1,860 318 992
(1,041) 86 84 26 (815) (94) (329)
1,338 20 31 7 831 113 337
Middle Atlantic New York . . . . . New Jersey . . . Pennsylvania . .
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38,153 18,136 7,945 12,072
38,526 18,146 8,178 12,202
38,923 18,250 8,392 12,281
39,520 18,530 8,638 12,352
40,289 18,916 8,924 12,449
41,164 19,359 9,238 12,567
42,071 19,830 9,558 12,683
3,918 1,694 1,613 611
16,136 8,117 3,535 4,484
12,441 5,598 2,542 4,301
(6,127) (5,038) (747) (342)
5,492 3,886 1,201 405
MIDWEST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
61,804
63,502
64,825
65,915
67,024
68,114
69,109
7,305
26,334
19,534
(3,541)
2,365
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43,456 11,151 5,803 11,830 9,549 5,123
44,419 11,319 6,045 12,051 9,679 5,326
45,151 11,428 6,215 12,266 9,763 5,479
45,764 11,505 6,318 12,515 9,836 5,590
46,410 11,588 6,404 12,808 9,917 5,693
47,063 11,671 6,481 13,121 10,002 5,788
47,675 11,744 6,546 13,440 10,078 5,867
4,219 594 742 1,610 528 744
18,512 4,417 2,377 5,672 3,965 2,081
13,557 3,626 1,879 3,582 2,874 1,596
(3,653) (758) (35) (1,699) (1,122) (39)
1,839 247 110 1,037 310 134
West North Central . Minnesota . . . . . . . . Iowa . . . . . . . . . . . . Missouri . . . . . . . . . . North Dakota . . . . . . South Dakota . . . . . . Nebraska . . . . . . . . . Kansas . . . . . . . . . .
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18,348 4,610 2,842 5,324 641 729 1,637 2,565
19,082 4,830 2,900 5,540 662 777 1,705 2,668
19,673 5,005 2,941 5,718 677 810 1,761 2,761
20,151 5,147 2,968 5,864 690 826 1,806 2,849
20,615 5,283 2,994 6,005 704 840 1,850 2,939
21,051 5,406 3,019 6,137 717 853 1,892 3,026
21,434 5,510 3,040 6,250 729 866 1,930 3,108
3,086 900 198 927 88 137 293 543
7,822 1,993 1,073 2,260 270 341 718 1,167
5,978 1,349 958 1,858 214 246 543 810
112 (89) (97) 255 (6) 6 35 7
526 190 83 105 13 6 29 102
SOUTH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
East North Central Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . Indiana . . . . . . . . . Illinois . . . . . . . . . . Michigan . . . . . . . . Wisconsin. . . . . . . .
91,890
97,613
102,788
107,597
112,384
117,060
121,448
29,558
43,142
32,054
11,067
5,273
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46,995 717 5,042 554 6,618 1,828 7,195 3,673 7,201 14,166
50,147 768 5,275 523 6,997 1,841 7,777 3,858 7,875 15,233
52,921 800 5,467 529 7,324 1,849 8,227 4,033 8,413 16,279
55,457 817 5,657 560 7,627 1,851 8,552 4,205 8,824 17,363
57,966 832 5,862 594 7,921 1,851 8,840 4,369 9,200 18,497
60,411 847 6,071 625 8,204 1,850 9,111 4,517 9,552 19,634
62,675 861 6,274 655 8,466 1,845 9,349 4,645 9,869 20,710
15,680 144 1,232 101 1,848 17 2,154 972 2,669 6,544
20,682 313 2,295 334 2,839 555 3,039 1,566 3,571 6,169
16,883 249 1,537 213 2,074 715 2,612 1,313 2,340 5,829
6,707 35 (251) (156) 299 105 1,295 546 953 3,879
3,790 24 593 135 605 14 199 58 306 1,856
East South Central Kentucky . . . . . . . . Tennessee . . . . . . . Alabama . . . . . . . . Mississippi . . . . . . .
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16,067 3,860 5,256 4,253 2,697
16,918 3,995 5,657 4,451 2,816
17,604 4,098 5,966 4,631 2,908
18,122 4,170 6,180 4,798 2,974
18,586 4,231 6,365 4,956 3,035
19,002 4,281 6,529 5,100 3,093
19,345 4,314 6,665 5,224 3,142
3,279 454 1,409 971 445
6,593 1,439 2,217 1,759 1,179
5,791 1,344 1,909 1,563 975
1,737 175 845 577 140
262 67 97 71 27
Central . ...... ...... ...... ......
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28,828 2,484 4,342 3,278 18,724
30,548 2,631 4,425 3,373 20,119
32,263 2,750 4,535 3,491 21,487
34,019 2,840 4,683 3,639 22,857
35,832 2,922 4,840 3,789 24,280
37,647 2,997 4,991 3,930 25,729
39,427 3,055 5,133 4,057 27,183
10,599 572 790 779 8,459
15,867 1,000 2,054 1,411 11,403
9,380 979 1,501 1,224 5,676
2,624 436 45 412 1,730
1,222 31 90 92 1,008
WEST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
South Atlantic. . . Delaware . . . . . . . Maryland . . . . . . . District of Columbia Virginia . . . . . . . . West Virginia . . . . North Carolina. . . . South Carolina . . . Georgia . . . . . . . . Florida . . . . . . . . .
West South Arkansas . . . Louisiana . . . Oklahoma . . Texas . . . . .
57,596
61,413
65,603
70,512
75,889
81,465
87,101
29,505
35,925
16,508
(358)
10,198
Mountain . Montana . . Idaho. . . . . Wyoming . . Colorado . . New Mexico Arizona . . . Utah . . . . . Nevada . . .
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15,645 870 1,163 480 3,747 1,685 4,218 1,951 1,530
17,725 950 1,347 525 4,168 1,860 4,798 2,207 1,871
19,249 1,006 1,480 568 4,468 2,016 5,230 2,411 2,070
20,221 1,040 1,557 607 4,658 2,155 5,522 2,551 2,131
21,122 1,069 1,622 641 4,833 2,300 5,808 2,670 2,179
22,049 1,097 1,683 670 5,012 2,454 6,111 2,781 2,241
22,962 1,121 1,739 694 5,188 2,612 6,412 2,883 2,312
7,317 251 576 214 1,442 927 2,195 931 782
8,794 374 627 244 1,855 1,030 2,542 1,310 813
4,938 316 379 160 1,122 526 1,434 486 516
2,490 143 257 111 504 403 753 (31) 351
646 13 33 2 123 12 276 80 106
Pacific . . Washington Oregon . . . California . . Alaska . . . . Hawaii . . . .
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41,951 5,431 3,141 31,589 604 1,187
43,687 5,858 3,397 32,521 653 1,257
46,354 6,258 3,613 34,441 700 1,342
50,291 6,658 3,803 37,644 745 1,440
54,768 7,058 3,992 41,373 791 1,553
59,416 7,446 4,177 45,278 838 1,677
64,139 7,808 4,349 49,285 885 1,812
22,188 2,377 1,209 17,696 281 625
27,130 2,600 1,364 22,035 422 709
11,570 1,708 1,169 8,248 105 339
(2,848) 931 712 (4,429) (84) 21
9,553 394 197 8,725 28 209
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.
4
P25-1131
Table 1. Total Population and Net Change for States:
1995 to 2025—Con.
[Thousands. Resident population] July 1, 1995, to July 1, 2000
July 1, 2000, to July 1, 2005
Components of change Region, division, and state
Components of change
Net migration
Net change
Births
Deaths
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11,879
19,601
12,727
NORTHEAST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
641
3,585
2,749
Interstate migration
Net migration Interstate migration
Immigration
13,240
–
4,112
2,747
(1,333)
1,119
Immigration
Net change
Births
Deaths
–
4,113
11,347
19,645
(1,531)
1,106
660
3,407
New England . Maine . . . . . . . New Hampshire . Vermont . . . . . . Massachusetts . Rhode Island. . . Connecticut. . . .
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268 18 76 32 125 8 10
898 76 78 38 417 68 222
669 64 50 27 311 54 163
(248) (4) 37 17 (148) (30) (121)
220 3 5 1 136 18 55
263 26 57 21 111 15 33
853 72 76 37 394 65 209
674 64 53 28 311 54 165
(200) 8 23 9 (138) (20) (82)
221 3 5 1 137 19 56
Middle Atlantic New York . . . . . New Jersey. . . . Pennsylvania. . .
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373 10 233 130
2,687 1,349 566 772
2,080 962 412 706
(1,283) (1,069) (151) (64)
886 622 198 66
397 104 214 79
2,554 1,270 548 737
2,073 940 418 716
(1,133) (921) (143) (69)
898 633 199 66
MIDWEST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1,698
4,363
3,089
(236)
395
1,323
4,307
3,154
(473)
393
East North Central Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . Indiana. . . . . . . . . . Illinois . . . . . . . . . . Michigan . . . . . . . . Wisconsin . . . . . . . .
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963 168 241 221 130 203
3,101 763 401 913 684 340
2,154 571 288 591 456 248
(461) (113) 85 (310) (187) 64
307 41 19 175 51 22
732 109 171 216 84 153
3,028 738 396 895 656 342
2,200 588 298 592 467 255
(565) (130) 30 (292) (193) 20
306 41 19 174 51 22
West North Central Minnesota. . . . . . . . Iowa . . . . . . . . . . . Missouri . . . . . . . . . North Dakota. . . . . . South Dakota . . . . . Nebraska . . . . . . . . Kansas . . . . . . . . .
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735 220 58 217 20 48 68 103
1,263 316 184 369 43 54 115 183
936 205 155 292 33 38 84 128
224 54 96 4 27 24 18
88 31 13 17 2 1 5 17
591 175 41 177 16 32 56 93
1,279 322 182 369 44 57 118 187
954 212 156 296 34 39 86 130
92 13 (13) 63 9 12 7
87 31 13 17 2 1 5 17
SOUTH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5,723
6,708
4,547
2,347
894
5,175
6,780
4,855
2,049
885
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3,151 50 232 (31) 379 13 582 185 674 1,068
3,254 52 364 49 458 105 489 263 543 933
2,384 36 229 39 291 112 354 179 316 831
1,454 27 (23) (65) 85 10 382 77 371 590
617 4 97 22 100 2 33 10 52 296
2,774 33 193 5 327 8 450 175 538 1,046
3,256 51 357 48 447 99 490 252 562 950
2,566 39 242 36 314 114 390 195 345 891
1,251 13 (42) (30) 66 13 281 91 246 612
619 4 98 22 100 2 33 10 51 299
East South Central Kentucky . . . . . . . . Tennessee . . . . . . . Alabama. . . . . . . . . Mississippi . . . . . . .
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852 134 401 198 119
1,110 254 357 295 205
849 201 271 230 146
485 56 278 104 46
44 11 16 12 4
686 104 308 181 93
1,094 245 361 287 200
888 208 289 240 151
369 39 197 103 30
44 11 16 12 4
West South Central . Arkansas . . . . . . . . . Louisiana . . . . . . . . . Oklahoma . . . . . . . . . Texas. . . . . . . . . . . .
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. . . . .
. . . . .
1,720 148 82 95 1,395
2,344 170 336 224 1,613
1,315 144 219 177 775
408 106 (65) 18 350
234 5 15 15 199
1,716 119 111 119 1,368
2,430 169 333 226 1,703
1,401 150 229 185 837
429 83 (21) 49 318
222 5 15 15 187
WEST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
South Atlantic . . . Delaware . . . . . . . Maryland . . . . . . . District of Columbia Virginia. . . . . . . . . West Virginia. . . . . North Carolina . . . . South Carolina . . . Georgia . . . . . . . . Florida . . . . . . . . .
3,816
4,945
2,342
(580)
1,718
4,190
5,151
2,484
(243)
1,716
Mountain . Montana . . . Idaho . . . . . Wyoming . . Colorado . . New Mexico Arizona . . . Utah . . . . . Nevada . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
2,080 79 183 44 422 175 580 256 341
1,261 58 90 35 274 144 354 190 116
632 42 48 20 140 70 188 60 64
1,285 57 131 27 253 94 351 106 266
122 2 6 1 24 5 51 14 19
1,523 57 133 43 299 156 433 204 199
1,384 63 103 39 293 156 387 211 132
723 47 55 22 161 77 213 69 78
706 34 75 24 134 73 201 42 123
114 2 6 1 22 4 48 13 18
Pacific. . . Washington. Oregon . . . California . . Alaska . . . . Hawaii . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
1,736 427 257 932 50 71
3,684 385 208 2,937 56 99
1,710 228 155 1,268 14 45
(1,865) 182 156 (2,188) (15)
1,596 67 34 1,459 5 31
2,666 399 216 1,920 46 84
3,767 399 216 2,987 62 103
1,761 250 172 1,274 15 50
(949) 163 124 (1,225) (7) (4)
1,601 66 33 1,465 5 32
Note: Components do not include adjustments to bring the sum of the state projections by age, sex, and race into agreement with the national population projections. Thus, the net sum of the components will not equal the net change in population. A dash (–) represents a value that equals zero, see U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.
5
P25–1131
While Americans frequently move among the states... Florida, Texas, and North Carolina will each gain 1 million or more persons over the 30-year period through net interstate migration, with Florida gaining nearly 4 million. Georgia and Washington will each gain slightly less than 1 million. Four states will have a net loss of at least 1 million persons to other states. New York will lose 5.0 million; California, 4.4 million; Illinois, 1.7 million; and Michigan, 1.1 million. Over the 1995-2025 period, nearly one-quarter billion people are projected to move from one state to another. Florida, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, and Wyoming, (in rank order) will have the highest average annual net internal migration rates from 1995 to 2025 (ranging from 8 persons to 6 persons per 1,000 population). Nearly two-fifths of the 50 states will have negative net interstate migration during 1995 to 2025. The District of Columbia and New York will each lose 10 and 9 persons per 1,000 population respectively, to other states. Clearly, the net interstate migration for states is relatively small compared with the total number of people entering and leaving each state over the 30-year period. For example, the District of Columbia will have the largest net loss, but it is also expected to have the highest in-migration flow — an average of 88 migrants per 1,000 population — and the highest out-migration flow — an average of 98 migrants per 1,000 population. New York expects the lowest average annual rate of in-migration (15 migrants per 1,000 population), while Wisconsin expects the lowest average annual rate of out-migration (19 migrants per 1,000 population); see Figure 4 on page 2.
States with the largest projected net increase in immigrants: 1995 to 2025 Thousands CA NY FL NJ IL TX MA VA MD PA
8,725 3,886 1,856 1,201 1,037 1,008 831 605 593 405
Figure 6. Percent of Total State Population 65 Years and Over: 1995 to 2025 AK
Percent Elderly 1995 U.S. 12.8 NH
WA
VT
ND
MT
ME
MN
OR ID
MI PA
IA
NE
NV
CO
KS
NJ
OH
IN
IL
UT
CA
MA RI
NY
WI
SD WY
WV VA
KY
MO
CT
DE MD DC
NC OK
AZ
NM
TN SC
AR MS
HI
GA
AL
LA
TX
FL
Percent Under 12 12 13 to 18 19 to 20 21 or more
AK
Percent Elderly 2025 U.S. 18.5 NH
WA
VT
ND
MT
ME
MN
OR ID
MI PA
IA
NE
NV
IL
UT CO
CA
KS
OH
IN
KY
MO
WV VA NC
AZ
OK NM
TN SC
AR MS
HI TX
AL
GA
LA FL
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.
MA
NY
WI
SD WY
...there are also many immigrants coming to America California is projected to add the largest number of international migrants (more than 8 million). This gain would be more than one-third of the immigrants added to the Nation’s population over the 30-year period. Other states projected to have gains
Figure 5. Coming to America
of 1 million or more from immigration are New York, Florida, New Jersey, Illinois, and Texas. States with the highest rates of net international migration (more than 5 people per 1,000 population) were the District of Columbia, California, New York, Hawaii, and New Jersey. The lowest rates are expected for Wyoming, New Mexico, South Dakota, West Virginia, Mississippi, and Arkansas (less than 0.4 persons per 1,000 population); see Figure 5.
RI CT NJ DE MD DC
6
P25–1131
The proportion of youth should drop... The Nation’s young (newborns to age 19) are projected to account for a slightly smaller proportion of the population — 27 percent in 2025 compared to 29 percent in 1995. Most states will follow this trend, but California, Hawaii, New York, Rhode Island, and the District of Columbia are expected to be exceptions. Even though the West will have a slight decline in the proportion of youth, it will continue to lead all regions with the greatest proportion of population under 20 years of age, while the South will have the smallest. For example, in 2025, Alaska will be the state with the highest proportion of its population under 20 years of age (34 percent), followed by California (33 percent), while West Virginia and Florida will have the smallest proportion (both with 21 percent).
...as the proportion of elderly increases As the Baby-Boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) starts reaching retirement age in 2011, the size of the elderly population (ages 65 and over) is projected to increase in all states. Over the 30-year period, California and Florida would continue to rank first and second, respectively, in having the largest number of elderly. By 2025, Texas will move up to rank third, passing New York and Pennsylvania. In contrast, before 2011, the number of elderly will remain about the same in most states. In 1995, Florida had the largest proportion of elderly (19 percent) of any state, and Alaska had the smallest, at 5 percent (see Figure 6 on page 5). By 2025, Florida is expected to remain the “oldest” state with more than 26 percent of its population age 65 or older. Alaska
will still rank as the “youngest” state with 10 percent elderly. To further illustrate the rapid growth in elderly populations, only five states had at least 15 percent of their population in the elderly category in 1995. By 2025, that number is expected to grow to 48 states. Only Alaska (10 percent), California (13 percent), and the District of Columbia (14 percent) will not meet or exceed the 15 percent level. From a different perspective, the number of elderly is projected to at least double in 20 states between 1995 and 2025. Contacts: Statistical Information Staff [email protected] 301-457-2422 State Projections Paul R. Campbell 301-457-2428 Paul.R.Campbell@ ccmail.census.gov
Methodology State population projections were derived using the cohort-component method. These projections were prepared for the 50 states and the District of Columbia by age (single year of age — 0 to 84 years, and 85+), sex, race, and Hispanic origin (non-Hispanic White; non-Hispanic Black; nonHispanic American Indian, Eskimo and Aleut; non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander; Hispanic White; Hispanic Black; Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo and Aleut; and Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander). Taking into account various assumptions, historical, and national trends for each year, state populations change through the process of aging, adding births, subtracting deaths, and movement from state-to-state, abroad, or to another country. Two projection series were calculated based on different assumptions about stateto-state migration. This report
uses Series A, which is a timeseries model that uses state-tostate migration observed from 1975-76 through 1993-94. Also available in report PPL-47 and on the Internet is Series B, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) employment projections. For a more thorough discussion of the methodology, see report PPL-47 cited below.
More Information Detailed information such as results, methodology, and selected data tables is available from the Population Division’s Statistical Information Office — 301-457-2422 — in the following formats: A) Paper Product Listing PPL-47 for $28.50. The author and title are: Campbell, Paul R., 1996, “Population Projections for Statesby Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025,” PPL-47,
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, 105 pages. This report also identifies alternative sources of state population projections. B) Diskettes PE-45 (3-1/2 inch diskette ASCII files). A single diskette with both Series A and B for each state or the District of Columbia ($20 each state). The PE-45 diskettes (and Internet files, see below) contain the detailed state populations by single years of age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. Also included are the components of population change (annual total — births, deaths, state-to-state migrants, and international migrants.) All of the above information (except for the detailed tables in PPL-47) are available on the Internet. The Internet user should go to the Census Bureau’s website — http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/stproj.html
Population Projections: States, 1995 – 2025
Population Projections
C E N S U S
By Paul Campbell P25-1131 Issued May 1997
B U R E A U
How will states’ populations change in the future? All states will have more people (especially in the South and West) and more elderly as Baby Boomers age. This report identifies population changes that are projected to affect the 50 states and the District of Columbia during the years 1995 to 2025. These projections are used as the basic input to many federal, state, and local projection models that produce detailed statistics on education, economic factors, labor force, health care, voting, and so forth. The results are useful to planners in both the public and private sectors.
Figure 1. Most of the Increase is in the South and West States with the largest projected net increase in population: 1995 to 2025 CA TX FL GA WA AZ NC VA NY NJ IL CO TN MD OR 0
(For detailed discussions of the assumptions and methodology used to develop population projections, see the report cited on p. 6.)
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Millions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.
Figure 2. Fastest-Growing States
Basic assumptions for state population projections Population. State projections are consistent with the national population projections. Births. State trends in age-raceHispanic-specific fertility rates for states parallel projected national trends. Deaths. State trends in age-sexrace-Hispanic-specific survival rates for states parallel projected national trends. Net international migration. 820,000 annually, distributed by State, based on net international migration rates derived from 1990 census data for foreign-born persons who immigrated during the 19851990 period. Net internal migration. Based on a time-series model using estimates of state-to-state migration for the 1975-94 period; the first 5 projection years use the time-series projections exclusively, the next 10 projection years interpolate toward the 197594 average of the time series, and the last 15 years use that average exclusively.
2
States ranked by percent change in population: 1995 to 2025 CA NM HI AZ NV ID UT AK FL TX WY WA OR CO GA NC MT VA TN SC NH MD OK AR AL KS NJ DE MN SD LA DC NE MO MS VT RI ME WI CT ND MA IL IN KY NY IA MI OH PA WV 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.
U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration
2
More people in the South and West Over the next three decades, net population change (births minus deaths plus net migration) will be most evident in three states — California, Texas, and Florida — each of which will gain more than 6 million persons (see Figure 1 on page 1). They will account for 45 percent of the net population change in the United States. No other state will gain more than 2.7 million persons. In fact, the 12 States that will add between 1.0 million and 2.7 million people during this period will account for only 30 percent of the Nation’s growth. California, the most populous state with 12 percent of the Nation’s population in 1995, is expected to have 15 percent of the Nation’s population by 2025. California’s increase in population — 17.7 million people — is nearly the current population of New York State. Besides natural increase, international migration is expected to contribute to California’s rapid growth (Table 1). The most populous states in the South will continue to grow fairly rapidly. During 1994, Texas replaced New York as the second most populous state and is expected to remain in that position throughout the projection period. Florida is projected to replace New York as the third most populous state by 2020.
Fastest growth in the West The rate of population change among the 50 states and the District of Columbia will vary during the late 1990s. Nevada is expected to have the most rapid growth (22 percent from 1995 to 2000), with the District of Columbia at the other end of the continuum with a population loss of 6 percent. The most rapid rates of change are projected for the mountain states, with rates ranging from 9 percent to 22 percent during the 1995-2000 period. Georgia, with a 9 percent rate of population change, is the only other state projected to grow this rapidly. After 2000, the rate of population change for most states will decline substantially, assuming that national projection trends and historical trends in interstate migration
P25–1131 continue. (See methodology details PPL-47.) In contrast, California is expected to grow faster after 2000, resulting in the highest rate of population change (52 percent) during the 2000-2025 period; see Figure 2 on page 1. During either period, the fastest growing states are in the West.
births per 1,000 population in the District of Columbia and California to 10 births per 1,000 population in West Virginia during the 30 years. The variation in mortality is expected to range from 13 deaths per 1,000 population in West Virginia and the District of Columbia to 5 deaths per 1,000 population in Alaska.
State differences in fertility and mortality to widen
Alaska, California, Utah, Texas, and Hawaii (in rank order) are projected to have the highest average annual rate of natural increase from 1995 to 2025, with rates ranging from 14 down to 9 persons per 1,000 population. West Virginia and Arkansas are the only states expecting either no gain or a loss from natural increase (see Figure 3 below).
Between 1995 and 2025, the range of birth rates is expected to widen slightly, reflecting the concentration of race and ethnic groups with high fertility rates in some states and differential migration patterns. Fertility is expected to range from 20
Figure 3. Projected Average Annual Rate of Natural Increase Per 1,000 Population: 1995 to 2025 Percent –2.9 to 1.4 1.5 to 2.4 2.5 to 3.4 3.5 to 4.5 NH 4.6 to 14.1 VT
AK
WA ND
MT
ME
MN
OR ID
PA
IA IL
UT CO
CA
RI
MI NE
NV
MA
NY
WI
SD WY
KS
OH
IN
WV VA
KY
MO
NJ
CT
DE MD DC
NC AZ
OK NM
TN SC
AR MS
HI
AL
GA
LA
TX
FL Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.
Figure 4. Americans on the Move States with the highest and lowest rates of in-migrants, out-migrants, and net interstate migrants per 1,000 population Highest rates... InStates migrants DC 88 Alaska 72 Wyoming 67 Nevada 60 New Mexico 54
States DC Alaska Wyoming Nevada Hawaii
Outmigrants 98 76 60 54 49
States Florida Oregon New Mexico Nevada Wyoming
Net interstate migrants 8 7 6 6 6
Lowest rates... Wisconsin Pennsylvania California Michigan New York
19 18 18 17 15
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PE-45.
Ohio Minnesota Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin
22 21 21 19 19
California Massachusetts Illinois New York DC
-4 -4 -5 -9 -10
P25-1131
3
Table 1. Total Population and Net Change for States:
1995 to 2025
[Thousands. Resident population] Projections for July 1
July 1, 1995, to July 1, 2025 Components of change
Region, division, and state
Net migration
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Net change
Births
Deaths
Interstate migration
Immigration
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . .
262,755
274,634
285,981
297,716
310,133
322,742
335,050
72,294
126,986
NORTHEAST . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
51,466
52,107
52,767
53,692
54,836
56,103
57,392
5,927
21,585
84,633
–
24,666
16,537
(7,168)
6,830
New England . Maine . . . . . . . New Hampshire. Vermont . . . . . . Massachusetts . Rhode Island . . Connecticut . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
13,312 1,241 1,148 585 6,074 990 3,275
13,581 1,259 1,224 617 6,199 998 3,284
13,843 1,285 1,281 638 6,310 1,012 3,317
14,172 1,323 1,329 651 6,431 1,038 3,400
14,546 1,362 1,372 662 6,574 1,070 3,506
14,938 1,396 1,410 671 6,734 1,105 3,621
15,321 1,423 1,439 678 6,902 1,141 3,739
2,009 181 291 94 828 151 464
5,448 437 481 221 2,520 423 1,368
4,096 402 344 180 1,860 318 992
(1,041) 86 84 26 (815) (94) (329)
1,338 20 31 7 831 113 337
Middle Atlantic New York . . . . . New Jersey . . . Pennsylvania . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
38,153 18,136 7,945 12,072
38,526 18,146 8,178 12,202
38,923 18,250 8,392 12,281
39,520 18,530 8,638 12,352
40,289 18,916 8,924 12,449
41,164 19,359 9,238 12,567
42,071 19,830 9,558 12,683
3,918 1,694 1,613 611
16,136 8,117 3,535 4,484
12,441 5,598 2,542 4,301
(6,127) (5,038) (747) (342)
5,492 3,886 1,201 405
MIDWEST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
61,804
63,502
64,825
65,915
67,024
68,114
69,109
7,305
26,334
19,534
(3,541)
2,365
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
43,456 11,151 5,803 11,830 9,549 5,123
44,419 11,319 6,045 12,051 9,679 5,326
45,151 11,428 6,215 12,266 9,763 5,479
45,764 11,505 6,318 12,515 9,836 5,590
46,410 11,588 6,404 12,808 9,917 5,693
47,063 11,671 6,481 13,121 10,002 5,788
47,675 11,744 6,546 13,440 10,078 5,867
4,219 594 742 1,610 528 744
18,512 4,417 2,377 5,672 3,965 2,081
13,557 3,626 1,879 3,582 2,874 1,596
(3,653) (758) (35) (1,699) (1,122) (39)
1,839 247 110 1,037 310 134
West North Central . Minnesota . . . . . . . . Iowa . . . . . . . . . . . . Missouri . . . . . . . . . . North Dakota . . . . . . South Dakota . . . . . . Nebraska . . . . . . . . . Kansas . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
18,348 4,610 2,842 5,324 641 729 1,637 2,565
19,082 4,830 2,900 5,540 662 777 1,705 2,668
19,673 5,005 2,941 5,718 677 810 1,761 2,761
20,151 5,147 2,968 5,864 690 826 1,806 2,849
20,615 5,283 2,994 6,005 704 840 1,850 2,939
21,051 5,406 3,019 6,137 717 853 1,892 3,026
21,434 5,510 3,040 6,250 729 866 1,930 3,108
3,086 900 198 927 88 137 293 543
7,822 1,993 1,073 2,260 270 341 718 1,167
5,978 1,349 958 1,858 214 246 543 810
112 (89) (97) 255 (6) 6 35 7
526 190 83 105 13 6 29 102
SOUTH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
East North Central Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . Indiana . . . . . . . . . Illinois . . . . . . . . . . Michigan . . . . . . . . Wisconsin. . . . . . . .
91,890
97,613
102,788
107,597
112,384
117,060
121,448
29,558
43,142
32,054
11,067
5,273
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
46,995 717 5,042 554 6,618 1,828 7,195 3,673 7,201 14,166
50,147 768 5,275 523 6,997 1,841 7,777 3,858 7,875 15,233
52,921 800 5,467 529 7,324 1,849 8,227 4,033 8,413 16,279
55,457 817 5,657 560 7,627 1,851 8,552 4,205 8,824 17,363
57,966 832 5,862 594 7,921 1,851 8,840 4,369 9,200 18,497
60,411 847 6,071 625 8,204 1,850 9,111 4,517 9,552 19,634
62,675 861 6,274 655 8,466 1,845 9,349 4,645 9,869 20,710
15,680 144 1,232 101 1,848 17 2,154 972 2,669 6,544
20,682 313 2,295 334 2,839 555 3,039 1,566 3,571 6,169
16,883 249 1,537 213 2,074 715 2,612 1,313 2,340 5,829
6,707 35 (251) (156) 299 105 1,295 546 953 3,879
3,790 24 593 135 605 14 199 58 306 1,856
East South Central Kentucky . . . . . . . . Tennessee . . . . . . . Alabama . . . . . . . . Mississippi . . . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
16,067 3,860 5,256 4,253 2,697
16,918 3,995 5,657 4,451 2,816
17,604 4,098 5,966 4,631 2,908
18,122 4,170 6,180 4,798 2,974
18,586 4,231 6,365 4,956 3,035
19,002 4,281 6,529 5,100 3,093
19,345 4,314 6,665 5,224 3,142
3,279 454 1,409 971 445
6,593 1,439 2,217 1,759 1,179
5,791 1,344 1,909 1,563 975
1,737 175 845 577 140
262 67 97 71 27
Central . ...... ...... ...... ......
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
28,828 2,484 4,342 3,278 18,724
30,548 2,631 4,425 3,373 20,119
32,263 2,750 4,535 3,491 21,487
34,019 2,840 4,683 3,639 22,857
35,832 2,922 4,840 3,789 24,280
37,647 2,997 4,991 3,930 25,729
39,427 3,055 5,133 4,057 27,183
10,599 572 790 779 8,459
15,867 1,000 2,054 1,411 11,403
9,380 979 1,501 1,224 5,676
2,624 436 45 412 1,730
1,222 31 90 92 1,008
WEST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
South Atlantic. . . Delaware . . . . . . . Maryland . . . . . . . District of Columbia Virginia . . . . . . . . West Virginia . . . . North Carolina. . . . South Carolina . . . Georgia . . . . . . . . Florida . . . . . . . . .
West South Arkansas . . . Louisiana . . . Oklahoma . . Texas . . . . .
57,596
61,413
65,603
70,512
75,889
81,465
87,101
29,505
35,925
16,508
(358)
10,198
Mountain . Montana . . Idaho. . . . . Wyoming . . Colorado . . New Mexico Arizona . . . Utah . . . . . Nevada . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
15,645 870 1,163 480 3,747 1,685 4,218 1,951 1,530
17,725 950 1,347 525 4,168 1,860 4,798 2,207 1,871
19,249 1,006 1,480 568 4,468 2,016 5,230 2,411 2,070
20,221 1,040 1,557 607 4,658 2,155 5,522 2,551 2,131
21,122 1,069 1,622 641 4,833 2,300 5,808 2,670 2,179
22,049 1,097 1,683 670 5,012 2,454 6,111 2,781 2,241
22,962 1,121 1,739 694 5,188 2,612 6,412 2,883 2,312
7,317 251 576 214 1,442 927 2,195 931 782
8,794 374 627 244 1,855 1,030 2,542 1,310 813
4,938 316 379 160 1,122 526 1,434 486 516
2,490 143 257 111 504 403 753 (31) 351
646 13 33 2 123 12 276 80 106
Pacific . . Washington Oregon . . . California . . Alaska . . . . Hawaii . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
41,951 5,431 3,141 31,589 604 1,187
43,687 5,858 3,397 32,521 653 1,257
46,354 6,258 3,613 34,441 700 1,342
50,291 6,658 3,803 37,644 745 1,440
54,768 7,058 3,992 41,373 791 1,553
59,416 7,446 4,177 45,278 838 1,677
64,139 7,808 4,349 49,285 885 1,812
22,188 2,377 1,209 17,696 281 625
27,130 2,600 1,364 22,035 422 709
11,570 1,708 1,169 8,248 105 339
(2,848) 931 712 (4,429) (84) 21
9,553 394 197 8,725 28 209
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.
4
P25-1131
Table 1. Total Population and Net Change for States:
1995 to 2025—Con.
[Thousands. Resident population] July 1, 1995, to July 1, 2000
July 1, 2000, to July 1, 2005
Components of change Region, division, and state
Components of change
Net migration
Net change
Births
Deaths
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11,879
19,601
12,727
NORTHEAST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
641
3,585
2,749
Interstate migration
Net migration Interstate migration
Immigration
13,240
–
4,112
2,747
(1,333)
1,119
Immigration
Net change
Births
Deaths
–
4,113
11,347
19,645
(1,531)
1,106
660
3,407
New England . Maine . . . . . . . New Hampshire . Vermont . . . . . . Massachusetts . Rhode Island. . . Connecticut. . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
268 18 76 32 125 8 10
898 76 78 38 417 68 222
669 64 50 27 311 54 163
(248) (4) 37 17 (148) (30) (121)
220 3 5 1 136 18 55
263 26 57 21 111 15 33
853 72 76 37 394 65 209
674 64 53 28 311 54 165
(200) 8 23 9 (138) (20) (82)
221 3 5 1 137 19 56
Middle Atlantic New York . . . . . New Jersey. . . . Pennsylvania. . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
373 10 233 130
2,687 1,349 566 772
2,080 962 412 706
(1,283) (1,069) (151) (64)
886 622 198 66
397 104 214 79
2,554 1,270 548 737
2,073 940 418 716
(1,133) (921) (143) (69)
898 633 199 66
MIDWEST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1,698
4,363
3,089
(236)
395
1,323
4,307
3,154
(473)
393
East North Central Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . Indiana. . . . . . . . . . Illinois . . . . . . . . . . Michigan . . . . . . . . Wisconsin . . . . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
963 168 241 221 130 203
3,101 763 401 913 684 340
2,154 571 288 591 456 248
(461) (113) 85 (310) (187) 64
307 41 19 175 51 22
732 109 171 216 84 153
3,028 738 396 895 656 342
2,200 588 298 592 467 255
(565) (130) 30 (292) (193) 20
306 41 19 174 51 22
West North Central Minnesota. . . . . . . . Iowa . . . . . . . . . . . Missouri . . . . . . . . . North Dakota. . . . . . South Dakota . . . . . Nebraska . . . . . . . . Kansas . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
735 220 58 217 20 48 68 103
1,263 316 184 369 43 54 115 183
936 205 155 292 33 38 84 128
224 54 96 4 27 24 18
88 31 13 17 2 1 5 17
591 175 41 177 16 32 56 93
1,279 322 182 369 44 57 118 187
954 212 156 296 34 39 86 130
92 13 (13) 63 9 12 7
87 31 13 17 2 1 5 17
SOUTH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5,723
6,708
4,547
2,347
894
5,175
6,780
4,855
2,049
885
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
3,151 50 232 (31) 379 13 582 185 674 1,068
3,254 52 364 49 458 105 489 263 543 933
2,384 36 229 39 291 112 354 179 316 831
1,454 27 (23) (65) 85 10 382 77 371 590
617 4 97 22 100 2 33 10 52 296
2,774 33 193 5 327 8 450 175 538 1,046
3,256 51 357 48 447 99 490 252 562 950
2,566 39 242 36 314 114 390 195 345 891
1,251 13 (42) (30) 66 13 281 91 246 612
619 4 98 22 100 2 33 10 51 299
East South Central Kentucky . . . . . . . . Tennessee . . . . . . . Alabama. . . . . . . . . Mississippi . . . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
852 134 401 198 119
1,110 254 357 295 205
849 201 271 230 146
485 56 278 104 46
44 11 16 12 4
686 104 308 181 93
1,094 245 361 287 200
888 208 289 240 151
369 39 197 103 30
44 11 16 12 4
West South Central . Arkansas . . . . . . . . . Louisiana . . . . . . . . . Oklahoma . . . . . . . . . Texas. . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
1,720 148 82 95 1,395
2,344 170 336 224 1,613
1,315 144 219 177 775
408 106 (65) 18 350
234 5 15 15 199
1,716 119 111 119 1,368
2,430 169 333 226 1,703
1,401 150 229 185 837
429 83 (21) 49 318
222 5 15 15 187
WEST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
South Atlantic . . . Delaware . . . . . . . Maryland . . . . . . . District of Columbia Virginia. . . . . . . . . West Virginia. . . . . North Carolina . . . . South Carolina . . . Georgia . . . . . . . . Florida . . . . . . . . .
3,816
4,945
2,342
(580)
1,718
4,190
5,151
2,484
(243)
1,716
Mountain . Montana . . . Idaho . . . . . Wyoming . . Colorado . . New Mexico Arizona . . . Utah . . . . . Nevada . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
2,080 79 183 44 422 175 580 256 341
1,261 58 90 35 274 144 354 190 116
632 42 48 20 140 70 188 60 64
1,285 57 131 27 253 94 351 106 266
122 2 6 1 24 5 51 14 19
1,523 57 133 43 299 156 433 204 199
1,384 63 103 39 293 156 387 211 132
723 47 55 22 161 77 213 69 78
706 34 75 24 134 73 201 42 123
114 2 6 1 22 4 48 13 18
Pacific. . . Washington. Oregon . . . California . . Alaska . . . . Hawaii . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
1,736 427 257 932 50 71
3,684 385 208 2,937 56 99
1,710 228 155 1,268 14 45
(1,865) 182 156 (2,188) (15)
1,596 67 34 1,459 5 31
2,666 399 216 1,920 46 84
3,767 399 216 2,987 62 103
1,761 250 172 1,274 15 50
(949) 163 124 (1,225) (7) (4)
1,601 66 33 1,465 5 32
Note: Components do not include adjustments to bring the sum of the state projections by age, sex, and race into agreement with the national population projections. Thus, the net sum of the components will not equal the net change in population. A dash (–) represents a value that equals zero, see U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.
5
P25–1131
While Americans frequently move among the states... Florida, Texas, and North Carolina will each gain 1 million or more persons over the 30-year period through net interstate migration, with Florida gaining nearly 4 million. Georgia and Washington will each gain slightly less than 1 million. Four states will have a net loss of at least 1 million persons to other states. New York will lose 5.0 million; California, 4.4 million; Illinois, 1.7 million; and Michigan, 1.1 million. Over the 1995-2025 period, nearly one-quarter billion people are projected to move from one state to another. Florida, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, and Wyoming, (in rank order) will have the highest average annual net internal migration rates from 1995 to 2025 (ranging from 8 persons to 6 persons per 1,000 population). Nearly two-fifths of the 50 states will have negative net interstate migration during 1995 to 2025. The District of Columbia and New York will each lose 10 and 9 persons per 1,000 population respectively, to other states. Clearly, the net interstate migration for states is relatively small compared with the total number of people entering and leaving each state over the 30-year period. For example, the District of Columbia will have the largest net loss, but it is also expected to have the highest in-migration flow — an average of 88 migrants per 1,000 population — and the highest out-migration flow — an average of 98 migrants per 1,000 population. New York expects the lowest average annual rate of in-migration (15 migrants per 1,000 population), while Wisconsin expects the lowest average annual rate of out-migration (19 migrants per 1,000 population); see Figure 4 on page 2.
States with the largest projected net increase in immigrants: 1995 to 2025 Thousands CA NY FL NJ IL TX MA VA MD PA
8,725 3,886 1,856 1,201 1,037 1,008 831 605 593 405
Figure 6. Percent of Total State Population 65 Years and Over: 1995 to 2025 AK
Percent Elderly 1995 U.S. 12.8 NH
WA
VT
ND
MT
ME
MN
OR ID
MI PA
IA
NE
NV
CO
KS
NJ
OH
IN
IL
UT
CA
MA RI
NY
WI
SD WY
WV VA
KY
MO
CT
DE MD DC
NC OK
AZ
NM
TN SC
AR MS
HI
GA
AL
LA
TX
FL
Percent Under 12 12 13 to 18 19 to 20 21 or more
AK
Percent Elderly 2025 U.S. 18.5 NH
WA
VT
ND
MT
ME
MN
OR ID
MI PA
IA
NE
NV
IL
UT CO
CA
KS
OH
IN
KY
MO
WV VA NC
AZ
OK NM
TN SC
AR MS
HI TX
AL
GA
LA FL
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, PPL-47.
MA
NY
WI
SD WY
...there are also many immigrants coming to America California is projected to add the largest number of international migrants (more than 8 million). This gain would be more than one-third of the immigrants added to the Nation’s population over the 30-year period. Other states projected to have gains
Figure 5. Coming to America
of 1 million or more from immigration are New York, Florida, New Jersey, Illinois, and Texas. States with the highest rates of net international migration (more than 5 people per 1,000 population) were the District of Columbia, California, New York, Hawaii, and New Jersey. The lowest rates are expected for Wyoming, New Mexico, South Dakota, West Virginia, Mississippi, and Arkansas (less than 0.4 persons per 1,000 population); see Figure 5.
RI CT NJ DE MD DC
6
P25–1131
The proportion of youth should drop... The Nation’s young (newborns to age 19) are projected to account for a slightly smaller proportion of the population — 27 percent in 2025 compared to 29 percent in 1995. Most states will follow this trend, but California, Hawaii, New York, Rhode Island, and the District of Columbia are expected to be exceptions. Even though the West will have a slight decline in the proportion of youth, it will continue to lead all regions with the greatest proportion of population under 20 years of age, while the South will have the smallest. For example, in 2025, Alaska will be the state with the highest proportion of its population under 20 years of age (34 percent), followed by California (33 percent), while West Virginia and Florida will have the smallest proportion (both with 21 percent).
...as the proportion of elderly increases As the Baby-Boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) starts reaching retirement age in 2011, the size of the elderly population (ages 65 and over) is projected to increase in all states. Over the 30-year period, California and Florida would continue to rank first and second, respectively, in having the largest number of elderly. By 2025, Texas will move up to rank third, passing New York and Pennsylvania. In contrast, before 2011, the number of elderly will remain about the same in most states. In 1995, Florida had the largest proportion of elderly (19 percent) of any state, and Alaska had the smallest, at 5 percent (see Figure 6 on page 5). By 2025, Florida is expected to remain the “oldest” state with more than 26 percent of its population age 65 or older. Alaska
will still rank as the “youngest” state with 10 percent elderly. To further illustrate the rapid growth in elderly populations, only five states had at least 15 percent of their population in the elderly category in 1995. By 2025, that number is expected to grow to 48 states. Only Alaska (10 percent), California (13 percent), and the District of Columbia (14 percent) will not meet or exceed the 15 percent level. From a different perspective, the number of elderly is projected to at least double in 20 states between 1995 and 2025. Contacts: Statistical Information Staff [email protected] 301-457-2422 State Projections Paul R. Campbell 301-457-2428 Paul.R.Campbell@ ccmail.census.gov
Methodology State population projections were derived using the cohort-component method. These projections were prepared for the 50 states and the District of Columbia by age (single year of age — 0 to 84 years, and 85+), sex, race, and Hispanic origin (non-Hispanic White; non-Hispanic Black; nonHispanic American Indian, Eskimo and Aleut; non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander; Hispanic White; Hispanic Black; Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo and Aleut; and Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander). Taking into account various assumptions, historical, and national trends for each year, state populations change through the process of aging, adding births, subtracting deaths, and movement from state-to-state, abroad, or to another country. Two projection series were calculated based on different assumptions about stateto-state migration. This report
uses Series A, which is a timeseries model that uses state-tostate migration observed from 1975-76 through 1993-94. Also available in report PPL-47 and on the Internet is Series B, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) employment projections. For a more thorough discussion of the methodology, see report PPL-47 cited below.
More Information Detailed information such as results, methodology, and selected data tables is available from the Population Division’s Statistical Information Office — 301-457-2422 — in the following formats: A) Paper Product Listing PPL-47 for $28.50. The author and title are: Campbell, Paul R., 1996, “Population Projections for Statesby Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025,” PPL-47,
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, 105 pages. This report also identifies alternative sources of state population projections. B) Diskettes PE-45 (3-1/2 inch diskette ASCII files). A single diskette with both Series A and B for each state or the District of Columbia ($20 each state). The PE-45 diskettes (and Internet files, see below) contain the detailed state populations by single years of age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. Also included are the components of population change (annual total — births, deaths, state-to-state migrants, and international migrants.) All of the above information (except for the detailed tables in PPL-47) are available on the Internet. The Internet user should go to the Census Bureau’s website — http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/stproj.html
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