Cdra Tigbao.docx

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA): Tigbao, Zamboanga Del Sur A 4th CLASS MUNICIPALITY, Tigbao is vulnerable to disasters given exposure to geo-physical hazards such as flooding and rain-induced landslide. Adding to its vulnerability is the relatively high poverty incidence among its people.

Climate-Related Hazards Given its geographic location, Tigbao is affected by four major river systems. These are the following: 1. Labangan River, which passes through Nanganangan, Lacarayan, Libayoy, Mati, Maragang and Tigbao 2. Begong River, which cuts across Begong, Longmot and Guinlin 3. Timolan River, which straddles Timolan, Tigbao, Nilo, Maragang, Libayoy and Upper Nilo 4. Dinas River, which passes through Limas and Guinlin

Figure 1: Landslide and Flood Susceptibility Map

The topography of Tigbao is characterized with undulating hills, with most of the 18 barangays located in sloping areas. Hence, based on the data provided by MGB, the municipality is generally susceptible to landslide, with barangays identified as having susceptibility ranging from moderate to high.

Flood and Landslide Susceptibility per MGB According to data provided by the Mines and Geo-Science Bureau, 15 barangays of Tigbao are susceptible to flood. The same data have identified all of the municipality’s 18 barangays to be susceptible to landslide. Table 6: Flood and Landslide Susceptibility Matrix Barangay Flood Susceptibility Begong None to low (brgy. center); moderate (flash flood within creek) Busol None

Caluma Diana Countryside

Low to moderate (flash flood within creeks; gullies) Low to moderate (flashflood within creeks; gullies)

Guinlin

Moderate to high (flashflood within creeks

Lacarayan

None (brgy. center); high (flash flood within creek) None Seasonally moderate to high (valley floor; floodplain)

Lacupayan Libayoy

Limas Longmot

Maragang

Low to moderate (valley floor; ricefield) Low to moderate (valley floor; ricefield); high (flashflood/sheetflood within creeks) High (flashflood/sheetflood within creeks)

Landslide Susceptibility None to low (brgy. center); high (riverbank) Low to moderate (top ridge; brgy. center); High (steep ridge slopes; valley sides) Low to moderate Low to moderate (top ridge; brgy. center); High (steep ridge slopes; valley sides; road cuts) Moderate (brgy. center) high (steep ridge slopes and valley sides; road cuts) Moderate (top ridge); high (steep valley sides) Moderate to high None to low (valley floor; flood plain); moderate to high (ridge slopes and valley sides; riverbank) Moderate (brgy.center) none to low (valley floor; ricefield) None to low (valley floor; brgy center); high (riverbank)

None to low (brgy. center) ; high (riverbank; steep ridge

Mate

None

Nangan-Nangan

Low to moderate (flashflood within creeks/gullies) Moderate to high (flashflood within creeks High (flashflood/sheetflood within creeks) Low to moderate (localize flooding alluvial plain; rice field); high (flash flood/sheet flood within creeks) Moderate to high (flashflood within creeks

New Tuburan Nilo Tigbao

Timolan

Upper Nilo

High (flashflood/ sheet flood within creeks)

slope; road cuts) High (steep ridge slopes; gullies; valley sides;road cuts) High (steep ridge slopes; gullies; valley sides;road cuts) High (steep ridge slopes; gullies; valley sides;road cuts) None to low (brgy. center) ; high (riverbank) None to low (alluvial plain; flood plain); high (riverbank)

Moderate (brgy. center) high (steep ridge slopes and valley sides; road cuts) Low (brgy. center) moderate to high (steep ridge slopes and valley side; riverbank)

Geo-Hazard Inventory of Tigbao per CDRA On top of the information gathered from the MGB, the local government of Tigbao had conducted a participatory Community Disaster Risk Assessment, with the purpose of identifying climate change drivers and disaster risks across the municipality. Based on the CDRA, 11 barangays are identified as susceptible to flood, 17 barangays are prone to landslide, and all of its 18 barangays are vulnerable to drought. The following matrix shows the distribution of hazards as generated from the Community Disaster Risk Assessment: Table 7: Geo-Hazards Inventory per CDRA BARANGAY

GEO-HAZARDS FLOODING

Begong Busol Caluma Diana Countryside Guinlin Lacarayan Lacupayan Libayoy

LANDSLIDE

DROUGHT

Limas Longmot Maragang Mate Nangan-nangan New Tuburan Nilo Tigbao Timolan Upper Nilo Flood Flooding in Tigbao is normally caused by torrential rain, except for very few and isolated cases where buhawi (tornado) cause flash flood affecting homes located along creeks. Because of the number of rivers and creeks that cut across parts of the municipalities, river banks and low lying areas are prone to flood. From the account of village folk, massive flooding started to be experienced in parts of Tigbao in the last 10 years, for the reason that rains are getting fiercer and that a significant portion of the municipality has been heavily deforested. Based on the results of the CDRA, there are 10 barangays exposed to flood in Tigbao, with 624 families determined to be vulnerable to flood-related disaster. Also potentially affected by flooding is a total of 1,675 hectares of rice field. In 6 barangays, including Begong, Busol, Libayoy, Limas and Maragang, flooding affects common public facilities such as barangay centre, schools and day care centres. Table 8: Matrix showing effects of flood per barangay Areas affected by Agriculture Flooding Sector Barangay Affected Purok HHs % to HHs Begong 6 119 Busol Lacarayan Libayoy Limas

1 2 3 1

4 30 80 30

Ricefield Ricefied Ricefield Ricefield

Longmot Maragang

2 4

50 180

Ricefield Ricefield

Service Facilities within affected area

Market, DCC, Church Barangay Hall School, Church Brgy. Center, DCC, Drier DCC, Drier, Church

Nilo Tigbao Timolan Upper Nilo

3 4 4 1

60 30 30 1

Ricefield Ricefield

School

Ricefields

Relative Vulnerability Relative vulnerability is determined by analyzing the threat level of the community and identifying its level of adaptive capacity. Relative Vulnerability Status – Flooding For flooding, the threat level is generally low, except for Maragang, Longmot and Limas which are identifying to be highly exposed to flood. However in almost all areas where a river or a creek traverses the community, there is always a portion of the community that is highly exposed to flood although the proportion of those families can be very low in relation to the total number of families in the community. As regards adaptive capacity, the determination is generally that of medium low, meaning the necessary infrastructure for impact response and preparedness is not present. In addition, the poverty condition and the limitation of support also contribute to the assessment. In general, the vulnerability status of Tigbao as regards flood is determined to be low. However, this is mainly due to the felt experience that flood is not that serious a threat, hence the low threat level identification. The underlying reality still remains that most of the communities of Tigbao do not have adequate adaptive capacity to address flooding issue should it occur in larger proportion. Table 9: Flood Vulnerability Status Barangay Begong Busol Lacarayan Libayoy Limas Longmot Maragang

Threat Level 1 1 1 1 2 2 3

Adaptive Capacity 2 2 2 2 2 2 3

Relative Vulnerability .5 .5 .5 .5 1 1 1

Vulnerability Status Low Low Low Low Low Low Low

Nilo Tigbao Timolan Upper Nilo

2 1 1 1

2 2 2 2

1 .5 .5 .5

Low Low Low Low

Vulnerability Status – Landslide Regarding landslide, a total of 1,610 families in 16 barangays are susceptible to landslide. This was based on the results of the CDRA. However, per data from MGB, 17 of the 18 barangays of Tigbao town are susceptible. Aside from homes, public structures are also exposed to landslide based on their location n the barangay. These include Barangay Centres (8), school buildings (2) and Day Care Centres (3). Table 10: Barangays exposed to Landslide

Areas affected by landslide

Barangay

Purok 4 4 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 All

HHs 50 24 75 80 120 20 80 10 130 130

Nanganangan

All

100

New Tuburan

All

115

3 3 2

105 300 181

All

90

Begong Busol Diana Guinlin Lacupayan Libayoy Limas Longmot Maragang Mate

Nilo Tigbao Timolan Upper Nilo

Service Facilities affected % Brgy Center Brgy Center Brgy Center Brgy Center High School Brgy Center Elem School Brgy Center, DCC, School Brgy Center, DCC, School Brgy Center, DCC, School

Brgy Center

Vulnerability Status – Landslide The landslide threat level among barangays is generally higher compared to the threat posed by flood. While most of the barangays indicate low threat level, four barangays – Diana Countryside, Limas, New Tuburan and Timolan are identified to be highly exposed due to their geographic location. Four others are moderately to highly exposed. Sensitivity to hazard is generally high among those indicating high exposure. This is for the reason that houses are makeshift and economic condition is inadequate to manage possible impact of landslide. Regarding adaptive capacity, the indication is that of medium low. There is simply no equipment on the part of the barangay local government that may be used to respond to potential victims of landslide. The low adaptive capacity is also reinforced by the poverty condition and the absence of infrastructure support. Vulnerability status may be ranging from medium low to medium, but the underlying reality is that given the low adaptive capacity, most of the communities remain highly vulnerable in their current condition in the eventuality of landslide.

Table 11: Landslide Vulnerability Status

Barangay

Threat Level

Adaptive Capacity

Relative Vulnerability

Vulnerability Status

Begong Busol Diana Guinlin Lacupayan Libayoy Limas Longmot Maragang Mate Nanganangan New Tuburan Nilo Tigbao Timolan Upper Nilo

2 1 4 1 3 1 4 1 3 2 3 4 3 1 4 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

1 .5 2 .5 1.5 .5 2 .5 1.5 1 1.5 2 1.5 .5 2 1

Low Low Medium Low Low Medium Low Low Medium Low Low Medium Low Low Medium Low Medium Low Medium Low Low Medium Low Low

Risk Estimates The estimation of risk was computed based on the likelihood of occurrence of hazard impact and the gravity of effects the occurrence has on human population, properties and public order.

Risk Estimates – Flooding Table 12: Flood Risk Estimates

Likelihood of Occurrence

Severity of Consequence

Risk Estimate

Risk Status

Begong Busol Lacarayan Libayoy Limas Longmot Maragang Nilo Tigbao

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

3 1 3 4 2 2 4 4 1

18 6 18 24 12 12 24 24 6

High Low High Very High Moderate Moderate Very High Very High Low

Tomolan Upper Nilo

6 6

4 1

24 6

Very High Low

Likelihood of Occurrence

Severity of Consequence

Risk Estimate

Risk Status

6 6 6

2 3 4

12 18 24

Moderate High Very High

6 6 6 6 6 6

4 4 4 4 1 4

24 24 24 24 6 24

Very High Very High Very High Very High Low Very High

Barangay

Risk Estimates – Landslide Table 13: Landslide Risk Estimates

Barangay Begong Busol Diana Countryside Guinlin Lacupayan Libayoy Limas Longmot Maragang

Mate Nanganangan New Tuburan Nilo Tigbao Tomolan Upper Nilo

6 6 6 6 6 6 6

4 4 4 4 4 4 4

24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High

Climate Change Trends and Observed Changes Increasing Temperature Normally there is a great volume of rainfall in Zamboanga Peninsula. Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration describe the climate of Zamboanga del Sur as tropical as in most of the country. Table 14: Seasonal Temperature increases in 2020 and 2050 Observed Baseline (1971-2000) DJ M J S F AM JA ON

26.8

27.6

27.3

27.2

DJ F

27.7

Change in 2020 (2006-2035) M S AM JJA ON

28.7

28.3

28.2

D JF

28.7

Change in 2050 (2036-2065) M J SO AM JA N

29.7

29.3

29.1

Between 1971 and 2000, the temperature of Tigbao was almost evenly distributed throughout the year, with the months from December to February registering the coolest period. The summer months of March – May registered the period when temperature was highest, with an average of 27.6 0C. It has been observed by village folk that rainfall has become abnormally stronger at the turn of the millennium. In the olden days, rain was fairly distributed throughout the year, but recently, rainfall has not only become unpredictable, it also normally comes in violent forms. In relation to heat, days are becoming hotter now in the province, the municipality of Tigbao included, as compared to earlier times. Scientific projections point out that there will be a significant in temperature by 2020. The rise will become more pronounced by 2050. Between 2000 and 2020, there is an average increase of 1 0C, and between 2020 and 2050, an average of

1.97 0C. This means that people of Tigbao and of the province of Zamboanga del Sur in general will grapple with hotter times by the middle of this century.

Increasing rainfall Table 15: Seasonal rainfall change in 2020 and 2050 Observed Baseline (1971-2000) DJ M J S F AM JA ON

294.5

298.7

593.8

663.2

DJ F

305.7

Change in 2020 (2006-2035) M S AM JJA ON

300.9

593.4

677

D JF

298.1

Change in 2050 (2036-2065) M J SO AM JA N

298.7

603.7

670.3

Based on observations as reflected in the afore-stated table, Tigbao and its neighbouring places get the lowest amount of rainfall during the months of December to May. The months of June to November are observed to be the wet months during the period 19712000. Rains associated with southwest monsoon normally come as early as June, with September to November as the wettest months of the year. The pattern is not reversed in the projections for rainfall for 2020 and 2050. The difference lies in that there is a considerable increase in the volume of rainfall during these periods under projection. This means that local population will experience heavier rains in the years to come. Extreme Events As in other part of Zamboanga Peninsula, the municipality of Tigbao has experienced long periods of drought. The worst one was in 1999-2000 when a 10-month dry spell hit the municipality and other towns of the Zamboanga Peninsula. According to those who experienced it, the period was characterized by extreme hunger as food was scarce, when water springs dried up and farm production going downhill.

Record of Past Disasters in Tigbao The municipality of Tigbao has been fortunate enough to have been spared of large scale disasters. There has never been any case where families are forced to leave their homes because of any case of disaster. However, the municipality has had share of deaths owing to natural calamity. But such cases could only be determined as isolated ones, and not recurrent patterns. A few isolated cases of calamities in Tigbao are as follows:

1. In year 1990, a family of 6-members was washed away by a tornado that struck a portion of Barangay Maragang. The death was due to the family being located at the direct path of the tornado, and there was very little time to respond to the incident on the part of the victims. 2. In years 1997 and 2000, portions of the cliff along the highway located in Barangay Lacupayan was massively eroded, disrupting transportation. However, this did not affect communities within Tigbao. What was affected was the movement of vehicles and travelers passing through the municipality. It took almost a day for local responders, including the DPWH, to clear the area of eroded materials. 3. In 2008, two children drowned in raging flood when the makeshift bridge they were trying to cross was swept away in barangay Begong. 4. Three years ago, in 2015, a house located by the river bank was swept when Maragang River overflowed after hours of torrential rain. No one died during the incident.

Impact Chain Analysis Geo-hazards are irritants to community life. Almost always exposure to hazards brings more hardship to the lives of people in the community. Where most of the inhabitants are poor, exposure to hazards, and eventually, to disasters, results in people being driven further to become poorer. Hunger due to scarcity of food supply, limited access to services because common service facilities are destroyed, and reduction in economic activities as these are disrupted are the major effects of vulnerabilities to disasters.

Table 16. Impact Chain Analysis CC Driver/ Geophysical Changes

Associated Hazards

Exposed Elements (What, Who and Where)

IMPACTS Primary / Direct 

Extreme Events More days with Strong wind heavy rainfall / strong wind

 Residents in mountain areas

Makeshift homes in elevated areas are easily destroyed by strong

Secondary/ Indirect 

Evacuation of affected families, resulting in disruption of livelihood

Tertiary/ Indirect Worsening of poverty condition among affected families

winds during typhoons

Flooding / Flash Flood

 Agricultural crops

Damage to rice crops

 624 households in 11 barangays – Begong, Busol, Lacarayan, Libayoy, Longmot, Limas, Maragang, Nilo, Tigbao, Timolan, Upper Nilo – are exposed to flood.

Inundation of homes during floods arising from heavy rainfall nd during falsh flood caused by tornado

Added financial burden to have their damaged homes repaired or rebuilt

Low production among farmers 

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Food shortage

Evacuation of affected families to safer grounds Destruction of homes and losses of livestock and fam production

Worsening of hunger and poverty condition of vulnerable families

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Losses in production among farmers directly affected by flooding

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Low production among farming households affected by intermittent floodidng

Food shortage, low income and high poverty incidence

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There is threat that homes and structures within proximity to sloping areas are likely to be covered in mud during long periods of rain

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Homes and common service facilities will be damaged Access to services will be difficult due to roads being blocked

Services will not be delivered to people and economic activities will be disrupted

 Around 2,000 hectares of land planted to various crops are affected by flooding

Rain-induced landslides / Mudslides

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 1,610 hoseholds in 17 barangays are at risk to landslide

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Economic activities will be

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disrupted because roads will be blocked by land slide

Prolonged dry season

Drought

 100% of the communities of Tigbao are under threat of long periods of drought

 Agricultural production is depleted

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Food shortage

Increasing malnutritio n rate

Green House Gas Emission The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are causing global warming come from a wide range of sources, including cars and trucks, power plants, farms, and more. Because there are so many sources of these gases, there are also many options for reducing emissions, including such readily available steps as improving energy efficiency and changing industrial processes and agricultural practices. It must also be known that the agricultural and fishery sectors are contributing to gas emissions, and in effect, reinforcing climate change. One contribution of these sectors pertains to the significant use of fossil fuel. In terms of land use, the contributions come in the following ways: (1) Carbon dioxide releases linked to deforestation, and the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, (2) methane releases rice cultivation, (3) methane releases from enteric fermentation in cattle, (4) nitrous oxide releases from fertilizer application, and (5) inefficient fishing gears and vessels. The IPCC Report attributes the significant increase in greenhouse gasses over the past centuries to fossil fuels, land use and agriculture. These, the report says, are main contributors to the climate change now being experience at tremendous magnitude in recent years. As in most areas in the Philippines, the municipality of Tigbao takes cognizant that it is guilty of the afore-stated human activities. Hence, it is contributory to global warming and climate change. It may be difficult to technically determine the amount of green house gas emitted by human activities in the municipality, what is clear is that the following are seen as dominant activities that help reinforce the emission in the municipality:

HUMAN ACTIVITY 1. Burning of fossil fuels such as coal

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2.

Operation of 4-wheel vehicles and motorcycles

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3.

Rice farming practice

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4.

Application of chemical fertilizers in local agriculture

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5.

Tending of livestock such as domestic animals, cattle and chicken Improper waste disposal and management

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6.

Summary of Findings

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DESCRIPTION The practice of fossil fuel burning remains a prevalent practice among communities despite it being now prohibited by law. For a number of families, the practice is part of a livelihood activity. Burning of rice haul, grass and leaves are being practiced in the municipality, although the practice has dwindled since the implementation of the Solid Waste Management The number of vehicles now being owned by families and operators in the municipality had risen to 52 in 2017. On top of this are the 467 motorcycles now being owned and operated by individual residents. A significant number of the vehicles are inefficient in terms of engine maintenance. A total of 2,120 hectares of farms, the municipality being one of the major rice producing towns of Zamboanga del Sur, are devoted to paddy rice farming in Tigbao. Normally, burning of rice hulls and stalks still remains unabated in the municipality. While there are ongoing initiatives to introduce organic farming as alternative to chemical fertilizers, a majority of the farmers in the municipality are still heavily dependent on chemical fertilizers. Almost all farmers in the municipality maintain livestock for farm use. Some of them raise hogs to augment family income. Because the Solid Waste Management implementation has not yet been in full swing in the municipality, waste management lraves much to be desires. Practices such as burning of wastes, including plastic, continue. It is estimated that 75% of farmers are still using chemical fertilizers and pesticides in agriculture.

Although the magnitude of threat and risk to disaster is relatively moderate in Tigbao in comparison to other municipalities, this much is clear – that the reality of disaster is a thing that is bound to happen. Hence, preparations in terms of concrete mechanisms must be in place. The following is the summary of findings from the conduct of the Disaster Risk Assessment in Tigbao: Area Physical/Material/ Economic Aspect

Vulnerability Assessment  High poverty incidence; Majority of those, especially those most directly susceptible to hazards, are poor  Most families have seasonal income; there’s limited source of alternative means of livelihood  A significant number of families are living in hazard-prone areas: mountain slopes and river/creek sides  A number of barangays (Mati, Nangan-Nangan, Tuburan, Timolan, Libayoy) are not easily accessible as access roads are rough and not well-maintained, hence posing as a problem in responding to climate impacts  Generally, there is low adaptive capacity at the community level, and at the same time, at the local government institution level  Most BDRRMCs are not actively functioning; In fact the LDRRMC

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Capacity Assessment There are adequate data regarding hazards, but the data are largely utilized as basis for concrete plans Capacities regarding climate change and DRRM are generally low, and need strengthening The low capacities may be attributed to the still weak set-up of the MDRRMO and the BDRRMCs Basic capacities for emergency response also still need improvement, as pro-active capacitybuilding program for communities remain lacking There is lack of training for municipal staff, schools and community leaders on climate adaptation, impact response and disaster preparedness

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Organizational/ Institutional

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structure remains weak In terms of preparedness for climate impact, most of the barangays are not equipped with emergency rescue tools and equipment There is weak institutional system to support farmers (buffer arrangement) during drought, i.e. food security, farmers’ subsidy, crop insurance. And this reinforces vulnerability. Part of the municipality is host to unregulated small mining activities, which also contributes to making the area prone to landslide. The 5% LDRRM fund, which could have been utilized to support climate change adaptation initiatives, is nor purposively appropriated to address hazard vulnerabilities BLGUs lack initiatives to make localized responses There is weak institutional arrangements to support farmers (buffer arrangement) during drought, i.e. food security, farmers’ subsidy, crop insurance

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The Local Chief Executive has strong leadership to make things happen. In the case of the LCCAP implementation, he shows promise that his municipality shall emerge as a champion for climate action.

Attitude/ Motivation

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There is a sense of complacency among communities arising perhaps from limited knowledge and awareness on climate impact and its worsening patterns

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There is commitment on the part of the LGU, and political will of municipal leadership Already, members of the BDRRMCs and local DRRM Council are organized. Only, they need to be capacitated so they become functional and more efficient

Priority Action Points With the challenges identified in the community climate change impact and disaster risk assessment, concrete decisions are in order. The following are some of the points for actions identified in the context of the municipality of Tigbao: 1. Formulation of appropriate local policies in support to climate action, including: a. Policy on occupancy in areas within hazard zones (flood and landslide prone area) b. Policy to ensure food security at all times, which allows for participation and engagement of families c. Policy strengthening the implementation of Local Solid Waste Management If there already is that local policy in support to the Law, localized implementation guidelines are in order d. Policy on burning of waste materials, use of plastic and adoption of climate-appropriate farming technology e. Policy on adoption of green structure for private entities as part of the requirements for permit issuances 2. Initiation of efforts towards safety and security of communities through: a. Establishing river and creek water control b. De-clogging of waterways c. De-siltation of rivers d. Protection of mountain slopes e. Landslide barriers f. Removal of persons from hazards zones g. Identification and development of safe places where people can take refuge 3. Provision of support to families and sectors that are most vulnerable to hazards:

a. Ensuring that crops are insured b. Establishment of system for financial assistance c. Delivery of technical assistance on climate adaptation in area of agriculture d. Provision of appropriate infrastructures