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Portland Tribune Thursday, September 18, 2008

President: Iraq war, economy boost Obama

We like them, we don’t like them

Favorable

Oregonians don’t much like President Bush, with the percentage of state voters viewing him unfavorably more than twice as high as those viewing him favorably. Meanwhile, the other presidential and vice presidential candidates and the U.S. Senate candidates in Oregon aren’t overly popular with state voters either — with a slight exception for still popular Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

Unfavorable

25% 28% 62%

56% 34%

41% 25%

39% 40%

44% 40%

28%

33% 39%

■ From page 1

“This is probably as good as it’s going to get for the Republicans, this general range, unless Obama’s campaign implodes.”

BUSH

OBAMA

BIDEN

McCAIN

PALIN

TRIBUNE GRAPHIC: PETE VOGEL

Source: Davis, Hibbits & Midghall Inc.

many times,” she said. “I also didn’t like his position on the war.” Palin, the Alaska governor, is a highly polarizing figure in Oregon, pollsters found. Among Republicans, 82 percent view her favorably and only 3 percent view her unfavorably. But 71 percent of Democrats view her unfavorably and only 8 percent view her favorably. Among independent voters, 35 percent view Palin favorably and 38 percent unfavorably. In the voter-rich Portland area, 50 percent of voters view Palin unfavorably and only 28 percent view her favorably. Palin proved no more popular among women than men statewide. Hibbitts concluded that Palin helped McCain close some of the gap with Obama in Oregon, but that she isn’t resonating with the state’s voters as much as she is in other states. Pollsters found that only 28 percent of Oregon voters hold favorable views of President Bush, while 62 percent said they have unfavorable views.

SMITH

MERKLEY

In Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas counties, 68 percent of all voters have unfavorable views of the president, pollsters found. To a certain extent, McCain is running against his own party, Hibbitts said, “and that’s a difficult trick to pull off.” The souring economy and war in Iraq provide another crucial advantage for Obama in Oregon. Only 18 percent of Oregon voters said the nation is headed in the right direction, and 70 percent said the nation is on the wrong track. “The ‘wrong track’ numbers have been in the 60s or 70s for three or four years,” Hibbitts said. “That makes it hard for the ‘in’ party to win an election.” A year or more ago, voters’ pessimism on the nation’s direction was more tied to the war in Iraq, Hibbitts said. Oregon voters are still prone to oppose the war, he said, but the sagging economy has superseded Iraq on voters’ worry list. Voters were more upbeat about Oregon, but still in a negative mood. Twice as many peo-

ple, or 36 percent, said the state is moving in the right direction. But 47 percent said the state is on the wrong track. Pollsters found only 5 percent of Oregon voters were undecided in the presidential race. Ralph Nader, who has been more popular here than in most of the country, garnered the support of 2 percent of voters in the poll. “He’s basically a spent force,” Hibbitts said. Obama’s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as his running mate didn’t overwhelm Oregon voters, according to the poll. “He’s OK but he’s not great,” according to voters, Hibbitts said. Oregon was one of the battle-

ground states in the 2000 and 2004 elections, but Hibbitts and other political analysts now place it alongside Washington, among the states leaning Democrat. That’s partly because of the huge increase in registered Democratic voters here, and the popularity of Obama, Hibbitts said. That means Portland and Oregon voters may not see much of the two major-party candidates in the state during the next seven weeks leading to the Nov. 4 election. “If Oregon is a battleground state a month from now,” Hibbitts said, “Barack Obama is in huge trouble.” [email protected]

Oregon unlikely to be a swing state this election Oregon was a battleground state in the last two presidential elections, but probably won’t be this time. One reason: the surge of new Democratic voters in Oregon. Democrats picked up a whopping 17.3 percent more registered voters from January through July, adding 130,552 new members. Republicans lost 11,128 of their registered voters during the same period, or 1.6 percent of the total. Some political analysts predicted the influx of new Democrats would be temporary, driven by excitement over Oregon’s Democratic presidential primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Some Republicans and independents

switched allegiances to cast votes in the primary. But that prediction has proved wrong. Party registration figures in the weeks since the May primary show Democrats continue to make gains. In June and July, Democrats picked up 17,763 new members, a 2 percent increase in two months. Republicans picked up 3,245 new members, a 0.5 percent increase. “I don’t think it’s temporary at all,” said pollster Tim Hibbitts of Davis, Hibbits & Midghall Inc. “George Bush and the Republican brand in Oregon have been very deeply damaged over the last four years.” — Steve Law

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cans, but didn’t provide the boost he needed among unaffiliated voters. “I don’t believe she’s helping Moore and Tim Nashif of the Hoffman Group, both conducted John McCain in Oregon with after the Republican convention. swing voters,” Hibbitts said. “It’s Those reported Obama leads of 6 going to be decided by swing votand 7 percentage points, respec- ers in the middle.” The Palin nomination soliditively. “This is probably as good as fied Lynn Johnson’s support for McCain, since she it’s going to get for tends to support the Republicans, only anti-abortion this general range, candidates. “I think unless Obama’s Obama is a campaign imchameleon,” said plodes,” Hibbitts the 39-year-old regsaid. ”Obama’s istered nurse from been ahead all Northeast Portsummer, and has land, a registered captivated OregoRepublican and a nians to a degree.” poll respondent. Albert Beard, a “He changes and 71-year-old retiree says what he thinks from Southwest people want him to Portland who was say.” one of the poll rePalin “puts on a spondents, said good front, but I Obama will help end gridlock in — Tim Hibbitts, pollster don’t know that I trust her too Washington about much,” said Donna crucial problems like Social Security, global Dean, a 72-year-old retiree from warming and the budget deficit. Northeast Portland and regis“I just think that somebody tered Democrat. “I hate the thought that Mcneeds to come in and make government work,” said Beard, a Cain, who is my age, would die while in office, with as little exregistered Democrat. The Tribune/Fox 12 poll sug- perience as she’s got.” Dean said. Dean told pollsters she’s gogests that Palin’s nomination helped McCain consolidate sup- ing for Obama. “I think that Mcport among wavering Republi- Cain has sided with Bush far too

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